TrumpCruz-Missouri

Yesterday was another Super Tuesday and it’s time for us to unpack exactly what went down. Donald Trump ruled the day is what. The voting states were Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Trump won three states, lost one, and is in a dead heat in the last. Ted Cruz took some delegates but won no states (so far). Kasich won one state. And Marco Rubio has dropped out of the race.

Yeah. Busy day. Here we go with our projections.


Florida: The big one. The hoped for (and needed) Marco Rubio victory never materialized. Indeed at no point in the reporting of the results was Rubio ever up over Trump. The final vote was 45.8% for Trump, with Marco Rubio taking a disappointing 27% in his home state, and Ted Cruz coming in third with 17.1%.

As a result, this winner-take-all contest for a whopping 99 delegates goes to Donald Trump.

After this crushing blow to his chances of winning, Marco Rubio graciously and eloquently stepped down.


Illinois: Donald Trump won with 38.84% of the vote, followed by Ted Cruz with 30.33%. Kasich took a distant third with 19.7%. Illinois is a “loophole primary”, which is a weird hybrid system for awarding delegates explained here. Trump gets the winner-take-all portion of the delegates, and the rest are by congressional district.

As a result, the estimated count is Donald Trump with the bulk of the delegates at 52, Ted Cruz with 9, and Kasich with 8.


North Carolina: It was a close race, but once again the win goes to Donald Trump with 40.2%. Cruz again took second place with 36.8% of the vote, followed by Kasich with 13% and Rubio with 9%.

As a result, Trump is estimated to take 29 delegates, Ted Cruz to take 26, Kasich with 9, and Marco Rubio’s only 5 delegates. At this time.


Ohio: The other belle of the ball Tuesday was Ohio, which Donald Trump did not win. Gov. John Kasich took the state with 46.8% of the vote, followed by Donald Trump at 35.7%, Ted Cruz at 13.1% and Marco Rubio with just 2.9%.

As another winner-take-all state, that results in 66 delegates for John Kasich.


Missouri: And now we come to the problem child. As it stands at 4am, the Missouri Primary was too close to call. The leaders, Trump and Cruz are separated by the incredibly thin maring of .2%. Here is our explanation of how it all breaks down, but the bottom line is that you’re just gonna have to wait to find out who picks up those 52 delegates.


That’s all five states, but not all the votes.

Northern Mariana Islands: Donald Trump won 343 of the 471 votes cast in this tiny commonwealth, which is around 73% of the vote. Ted Cruz took a negligible second place with 113 votes.

This results in 9 delegates for Donald Trump.


[As always, please note this are the best projections based on information available at the time of the posting and are subject to change.]

So …

The Day: RedState puts the total delegates at:
DONALD TRUMP: 189
GOV. JOHN KASICH: 83
SEN. TED CRUZ: 35
SEN. MARCO RUBIO: 5

Obviously there are still delegates on the table from Missouri.