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A Risk of Contagion: The Growing Threat from Syria’s WMD

Recent reports of al Qaida infiltration of the Syrian resistance have strengthened our national reluctance to intervene in the slow-motion train wreck that is the Syrian civil war. After all, we hardly want to be in the position of arming our enemies (that didn’t go so well with the Mexican drug cartels), and should they be successful an al Qaida backed regime is one of the few things that would be worse than the Assad thugocracy that has oppressed Syria for so long.

Furthermore, our options are limited at best. All the high hopes pinned to Kofi Annan’s diplomatic effort to broker a cease-fire have been dashed. Despite international outcry over ongoing atrocities such as the Houla massacre, there now seems to be little we can do beside plead with Vladimir Putin to get his buddy Bashir al-Assad to stop slaughtering his civilian population.

We might be forgiven for wanting to forget this whole sad, sorry mess and turn our eyes away from the carnage on the grounds that it simply is not our problem, and that even if it were we simply cannot fix it. Unfortunately it is rapidly becoming our problem and we have to try to fix it.  As this Jerusalem Post editorial details, a grave danger lurks beneath the surface of this conflict that directly threatens our national security: Syria’s WMD. The presence of al Qaida in a country with these weapons further complicates an already enormously complex challenge, and puts the lie once and for all to the contention that Syria has nothing to do with us.

The issue is not so much whether Assad will use the weapons on his own people (although he may well, his father was not squeamish about it).  For us it is that Syria’s WMD could fall into the sort of eager hands that snatched Libyan stockpiles in the chaotic days after Qaddafi’s fall, and spirited them to Lebanon. Those shoulder-fired missiles present a worrisome threat to Israel to which the IDF is responding, no doubt thankful for their prudent recent investment in missile defense programs.

Assad has a far more deadly bag of tricks; while the 2007 Israeli strike may have retarded his efforts to develop nuclear capabilities, his successful chemical and biological weapons programs are well-known. What we do not know, however, is where he is storing these weapons. In an increasingly chaotic Syria where we have no presence, we have no way to ensure these stockpiles are safeguarded from whatever bad actor may choose to help himself and spread the grim contagion of these weapons where he will.

A number of alarming scenarios then present themselves. Our immediate concern would have to be Israel should the Iranians, who certainly know where the weapons are, tip off their Hamas or Hezbollah proxies regarding their location. It is even more unpleasant, however, to imagine what might occur if one of the jihadi groups that have joined the Syrian opposition, notably al Qaida, happens upon them.

President Obama and his administration have justified their lethargy towards Syria on the grounds that it is not Libya. In the case of Syria’s WMD we should devoutly hope so. If the international community decides that despite all the very real dangers and challenges of intervention, leaving these weapons to the whims of fate is an intolerable risk, the administration should reverse the lackadaisical “lead from behind” approach that failed to secure Libya’s stockpiles, and take an active and aggressive role in securing Syria’s.

As the Jerusalem Post points out, however, no one should be under the illusion that there are good options here. We have to stop hoping one will magically emerge. This is not a situation that can be resolved with drones or a special operations strike–we face far uglier choices. We might conclude that WMD in the hands of terrorists is worse than Assad and communicate to him that there could be some wriggle room if he reveals their location. We might, despite the inevitable “Bush-lied-about-Iraq” comparisons, make with our allies the public case for the containment of these weapons in an effort to explain what is at stake here. But doing nothing is becoming an increasingly dangerous policy. The presence of al Qaida in an unstable country with WMD has changed the nature of the threat, and as the last fifteen months have demonstrated, ignoring Syria will not make it go away.

 

Victoria Coates is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

COMMENTS

  • PGDeFreese

    is just one of the many Obama regine non-stories that would have become full blown scandals for a GOP administration.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-03-01/libyan-militias-missiles/53368750/1

    Just think if potential Syria WMD is linked to Saddam’s Iraq… just how hard will the admin and the press have to work to avoid an Obama image crucifiction and Bush resurrection.

    • Victoria Coates

      An excellent point. I have always found it an interesting coincidence that Syrian nuclear activity ramped up in 2005-6…

      • fredflintlock

        Georges Sada’s name is familiar to many readers here at Redstate, but his story received virtually no coverage in the LMS when he published his book, “Saddam’s Secrets”.

        A brief synopsis of the mission to fly WMD into Syria is presented by The New York Sun in this 2006 article about Sada.

        The story was dismissed at the time as fantasy by Chris Matthews and the rest of the smart kids. The book quickly dropped from sight before many people knew about it, and, just as the LMS wanted, it was forgotten by most.

        Good read. Lousy bumper sticker.

        • fredflintlock

          Proud member of the DNA, National Assoc. of Dyslexics, since 1963

          • acat

            Turk 182 ???

          • fredflintlock

            Would’ve made lots of friends in Ann Arbor during the surge with that on your car.
            /snark

            Never saw Turk 182.

          • acat

            (and yes, liberals are violently allergic to facts)

  • aesthete

    of this sort should be based on informed probabilistic assumptions, lest we make truth out of innuendo. The facts are as follows:

    1) Syria does not act as if it has either an advanced nuclear program, or advanced biological and chemical weapons such that they are a threat to the US. Not once have any such weapons been used in the current crisis.

    2) Israel does not behave as though Syria’s current capabilities are a grave threat. Israel maintains an aggressive stance on the Golan Heights, violates Syrian airspace, and does not act in a manner consistent with a Syria with advanced WMDs.

    3) None of the other regional power act that way, either. The Arab League has targeted Syria as a country to be sanctioned. Regional powers are distancing themselves from the country politically. Western intervention in Syria’s internal affairs under the auspices of the UN is ongoing. None of this would be happening in a Syria with WMDs that act as deterrents.

    This leads me to believe that whatever WMDs Syria has are not likely to be all that important outside a humanitarian context. The confirmed chemical WMDs that Syria has could be obtained elsewhere by terrorists (Aum Shinrikyo in Japan had little trouble obtaining Sarin gas for their terrorist attacks in Tokyo in the 90s), and there is no evidence of serious developments in biological or nuclear WMDs.

    So, what’s the “solution”? I don’t know — perhaps there isn’t one. Innuendo coupled with a “do something” mentality do not strike me as a great way to approach this question.

    • edintexas

      I could be mistaken, but IIRC the Sarin which Aum Shinrikyo possessed in Japan was “home made” and of far lesser quality than military Sarin. Not to mention that their dispersal method was significantly lacking in effectiveness. I wouldn’t bet on Jihadis not taking note of that complication of the Tokyo subway attack. It is a complication they can easily overcome through current access to appropriate materials. Combined with reports that Syria also possesses Tabun and Vx (with the Vx being more effective than either Sarin or Tabun), as well as Mustard (not necessarily lethal, but very nasty ) and we have a potential which should not be written off or ignored.

      • aesthete

        It doesn’t take much to kill someone. Dispersal methods can always be improved upon, and in Aum’s case it’s hard to think of a worse dispersal mechanism.

        I wouldn’t say this needs to be written off, either — but neither do I see compelling reason for ambiguous “action”. I would like to see more data regarding the threat and specific action than what was stated above — as is, I’m not even sure what, exactly, is being argued for here besides a tacit pro-Assad posture (which seems to be a reversal of this author’s prior pro-rebel stance).

  • robertm75

    I saw this upon logging on today and I had to respond. As the author of this piece notes, al Qa’ida and jihadists fighting in tandem with al Qa’ida do in fact make up the bulk of the “resistance” in Syria. They are predominantly moving out of Waziristan, through Iran and Turkey and into Syria. It is because of this that the US must stay out of any attempt to oust Assad. Yes, publicly we can wag our fingers at Russia for sending arms to the Assad regime and we can play lip service to some sort of international organizational intervention in Syria, but it is important that Assad not be ousted. It is important that Assad be able to kill as many of these jihadists as possible, even it means that women and children will die–and let’s be honest, the jihadists are hiding behind the women and children so that they can garner the exact media outrage in the West that we are seeing almost daily.

    Now, you might ask how do I know this. I haven’t posted any links to anything to back up what I am saying, so your question is valid. Let’s just say that I deal with this very topic at work every night. I know that I am just some schmuck on a Conservative blog who hasn’t posted on RedState in quite some time, so why believe me. All I can do is ask that you look at the precursors to Syria that took place in North Africa all last year and make up your own mind about this. I advocate that the US do nothing in this situation. Don’t help the “resistance” and don’t stand in the way of Russia helping Assad. Just sit back and watch. Otherwise the jihadists will claim yet another country in their ultimate goal of carrying out jihad against the Infidel West.

    • funwithknives

      have much to do with Russian Basing in Syria, and the reported Spetznaz guards flown in , a while ago?
      Per Av. Week, Syria has the latest and greatest Russian anti-ship missles, and it’s hard to fathom Russian techs not being in control of these Suckers.

      Thanks for any response,or additions you deem worthy.

      • funwithknives

        are Soviet ‘ Yakhont’ A/ S ,Type 800. Purportedly with a 125 mile range and dual guidance systems. {Glonass/GPS and pre-programmed }
        Not to mention radar guidance. [ launcher and self-contained.]
        125 miles effectively means they can sink Isreali ships at anchor, at home ports.

        Forget a MAG-58 HMG, I want some of these………..

        • funwithknives

          and speling iz not my all-time best sobjekt

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    Here comes the drumbeat, the rumors, the run up to war. Where have we heard this before?

    • robertm75

      then I must say that you have a bit of a point. Although there was no active “resistance” in Iraq when we went in, we did, by the end, hand over to the jihadists another state in the Middle East with which to carry out their attacks on the West. How so, you might ask? Bluntly put, I am convinced that the jihad is morphing into a two prong attack against the West: 1) a jihad based on violence and 2) a jihad based on cultural aggitation. In Iraq there aren’t al Qa’ida type organizations plotting to launch more 9/11s, but there is a concerted effort to render the Christian community in Iraq to a second class citizenry. And where is the West with all their cries of human rights? No where to be found.

      • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

        It’s just a silly one that doesn’t actually mean anything.

        • PowerToThePeople

          But thanks for the laugh, it broke the tension waiting to see what happens in Wisconsin.

  • jdbird

    Can we just parcel Syria between it’s more stable neighbors? Turkey (Byzantium/Istanbul) has a claim to Syria going back to the Roman Empire straight through to WWI. Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, these are all sorta-allies. At least we are on good terms with all of them. . . . As good as can be expected anyway. Better solution than Assad or the Rebels taking over. Naive, I know.

  • renl57

    Iran is a more immediate existential WMD threat to Israel (and America) than Syria is. Iran is where we should be focusing our attention.

    If Israel thought that Syria were that big an existential threat to them, they would have done something about it. (Military action against Syria is easier for them than against Iran, obviously)

    I really don’t want to get stampeded into getting deeper and deeper into the Middle East abyss than we already are.

    • commonsenseobserver

      Or at least, an ally. If the Assad regime stays, Iran will continue to be able to strike much more easily through Lebanon.

  • Victoria Coates

    I would just say that they have already felt compelled to strike Syria for WMD activities but have not yet felt so about Iran.

    It also strikes me as bizarre to assert that Assad does not have significant biological and chemical weapons capabilities–did all those people in Homs just die of natural causes?

    I do not, however, think Israel fears a WMD attack from Assad. As the JP notes, they are very concerned about Iran slipping the arms to Hamas and/or Hezbollah in the event that Assad falls. That seems to me, given what happened in Libya, a perfectly valid concern. And I think we should be very concerned about not only that, but about the aQ bad actors in Syria getting their hands on some.

    To dismiss this line of reasoning as war-mongering seems to me ill-advised.

    • aesthete

      I said they don’t act like Syria has a credible WMD deterrent or as if its current level WMD development comprises a serious problem for Israeli policy. This indicates (at least to me) that the WMDs in question are probably chemical in nature, and of a sort that have already been available to terrorist groups for some time.

      If you want to make the case for some sort of humanitarian-based foreign policy, feel free. If you want to state that Syria has mustard gas or Sarin, then that’s common knowledge but also not objectionable. I don’t see a strong case for the sort of advanced WMDs that usually keep developed democracies up at night.

    • robertm75

      but I just want to say–at the risk of being labled a monster here–Assad using WMD in Homs against the jihadist is far better than the West militarily backing them in an attempt to take over Syria. Gassing the jihadists is far more preferable than seeing them take control of another country that shares a border with Israel.

      Lastly, Assad will not use WMD against Israel because he does not want to lose his power in Syria. The jihadists, if the West helps them take power, cannot be trusted to act in the same manner.

  • thethinman

    When you begin encouraging nations to overthrow their governments with violence – sooner or later you hit a snag and it costs “innocent” victims lives. The United States has a long history of picking the wrong side to begin with.

    I’m certain that if Syria had decent WMD program that Israel would do more than just sit in the Golan Heights.

    Again we also see that it is insurgents, infiltrating through Iran, that are causing the deaths of so many civilians – and they care little. I’m certain that Assad has no real desire to kill his citizens –

    but then, I’m sure the US Government has no desire to kill US Citizens either – but “when in the course of Human events it becomes necessary … That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government,…”

  • brojohn2

    to see the destruction, and yes the loss of innocent life, along with those who hide behind women and children, I have to agree. This is not our fight, just as Libya was not our fight. History tells us that once the dust settles, these jihadists will begin to attack each other, because each group wants to be Caliph of all Islam. Sounds wierd, but it has happened before and will happen again. Look at the PLO which seems now to be non-existent. When Arafat died, that was the end of that organization.
    Let this play out as it will anyway. We have Iran, who wants to control everybody, finding out that you cannot control fanatics, your own or someone else’s. These are not our wars, even though we are involved in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. I give Obama credit for deciding to get us out of this mess, it is beyond time to get out of there and let these people kill each other. We cannot and should not try to control the world, we are not Rome, and look what happened to them.
    We are so busy “protecting” the rest of the world, we can’t even protect our own border. The modern day Goth’s and Barbarians are at the gates and we are still in Europe ready to fight the last world war. Bring the troops home, let these people fend for themselves.

  • ihateliberals

    We may actually find Saddam Husein’s WMD’s after all. Now wouldn’t that be a kicker?

  • http://www.talkshowamerica.com Jay Are

    I think the only thing that can be done is for us, (The US) to take out those WMD facilities. Preferrably using MOABS and Bunker Busters, (the moabs would generate such heat as to kill any airborne contagion that might exist. Cruise missles could be deployed but are not as efficient at destroying everything within a certain radius of the WMD site. We need to be assured that these sites will be wiped off the map. It is a bold move, no doubt, but it is the nly way we can assure ourselves that Al Qaida will not get their hands on these weapons. No announcement, no fanfare, just do it and report after to the American people why it was done.

    • commonsenseobserver

      That’s the problem.

      • Victoria Coates

        We don’t know where they are, and various bad actors are more likely to have that knowledge. That is the root of the problem with having ignored this problem so long that aQ has gotten into the game.

  • vandalii

    Since the UN inspectors took their sweet time trying to figure out where to look for the WMD’s Saddam allegedly had, does it occur to anyone else that the WMD’s actually *were* in Iraq, got snuck into Syria before, well, 10 years and useless inspections passed us by, and now we’re looking at Syria having WMD’s?

    Just wait, someone will start talking about Syria, we’re now out of Iraq so it’s safe to ship them back there again to hide for before the UN committee decides it should check into this allegation about Syria in about 5 years.

    Just sayin’

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