Don’t Raise the Debt Ceiling


I am no economist.  In fact, as I researched for this piece and saw the diversity of opinions floating in the blogosphere and in the main stream press, it became clear to me that I am completely out of my element went it comes to national economics.

However, I am a tax payer.  I am a small business owner, and I am a person that understands the concept of living beyond your means.  I’ve even written about it before.

There is no doubt that the debt ceiling is a complicated matter.  I’ve switched sides numerous times in this debate.  Most of the time, I think to myself, “If they just keep raising it every time they want to spend more what’s the point?  Don’t raise it again or it’s worthless!”  This will also easily lead me to the conclusion that it’s not becoming worthless, it is worthless.  And since it’s worthless, let’s not waste time debating whether or not to raise it when we could be focusing on spending.

Depending on which of these two opinions I’m feeling at any given moment, I can find a number of articles that will either support one position or the other.  While some make the case that keeping the debt ceiling where it is will have virtually no effect on us, others say it’s the worst thing we can do in the middle of a recession.  And this is not evenly divided on partisan lines.  I’ve found people both for and against on both sides of the aisle.

Without a strong position among those on my side of the aisle, and with my limited economic understanding that I mentioned earlier, I must revert to what rarely fails me: My gut.  And my gut says to leave the debt ceiling exactly where it is.

Ronald Reagan’s famous use of analogies fits quite well with the current situation.

At the time, Reagan believed that the “allowance” was tax revenue.  The theory was, cut the tax revenue and the government will have to prioritize it’s spending differently.  I don’t think he could’ve predicted that government would become so irresponsible as to endlessly spend using debt with no real restraint on how much can be borrowed.

Not surprisingly, Washington is claiming that we are being too simplistic for feeling this way.  It’s “more complicated than that.”  We “can’t see all of the consequences that will occur” if we don’t raise the debt ceiling.

But this way of thinking is precisely why I have come to my final conclusion on this matter.  To Washington, negative consequences will come only if we can’t borrow more money to fill the gaps that are inevitably popping up as a result of taking in less than we spend.  This is the fundamental difference between average Americans and the Washington elites: negative consequences to you and me, are what happens as a result of bad decisions.  Negative consequences to Washington, are what happens when you are no longer given the opportunity to push reality off to the next election cycle.

The government has two choices in front of them: Raise the debt ceiling and continue to borrow while making minimal effort to control spending; or, cut the allowance and force them to end this madness.

I know that some will look at this point of view as simplistic and a naive perspective on economics from someone who admits to be a novice.  Honestly, I couldn’t care less.  Because while the pundits and the elites have been running around for decades telling everyone that they don’t understand how complex everything is, the American people have been watching as the debt climbs, the deficits explode, and the spending increases.

Don’t tell me how naive I am for wanting the government to live within it’s means.  These experts have had 40 years to prove that their way works.  It doesn’t.  And frankly, I don’t give a damn how complicated it is.  Figure it out.

Whether it’s tax revenue, debt limits,or both, the concept that Reagan put forward in that famous debate is very much tied to current events: “Government does not tax to get the money it needs. Government will always need the money it gets.

Don’t raise the debt ceiling.


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35 Comments Leave a comment

It was a priviledge to live

altexas Wednesday, April 27th at 4:08PM EDT (link)

during the time of a father and son both becoming president. I suspect Abigail Adams would be proud of the work they both did. It was an even greater honor to have served in the military under Ronald Reagan.

Mt. Rushmore would not be enough. He needs a seperate tribute.

It is just a curious observation that the two worst presidents also served during my lifetime and no democrat president has been worth a damn.

Amen!

ihateliberals Thursday, April 28th at 6:11AM EDT (link)

and Amen!

 
 

Can't say I agree

supercap Wednesday, April 27th at 4:18PM EDT (link)

No other serious country in the world has a debt ceiling, it’s an absurd thing to have in the first place. A near century old relic that’s never ever had any practical effects. Governments aren’t like corporations and they certainly aren’t like households. Politicians try to appeal to people with simple examples to illustrate economic points, but the debt ceiling business is a clear example of when that becomes destructive.

If we fail to pass the debt ceiling hike we would absolutely, undoubtedly fall back into a recession, likely a deep one, and our currency and credit rating would collapse. And it would all be blamed on Republicans. 2012 would be a bloodbath. Pass the debt ceiling hike in exchange for substantial and meaningful cuts and if possible some credible first steps to dealing with the long-term deficit. Because THAT’S what really matters. A plan that phases in deep and meaningful cuts over a decade+ (Ryan and Simpson-Bowles are both examples of that) is much much better than failing to raise the debt ceiling and either defaulting or instituting massive, massive, massive cuts over a very very short time period.

Though I do suppose there needs to be a significant contingent of folks like you for the “We’re not raising the debt ceiling unless you give us some damned cuts” threat to be credible.

Debt ceiling? We don't need not stinking debt ceiling.

altexas Wednesday, April 27th at 4:26PM EDT (link)

The debt was caused by overspending. That will stop.

Whatever bad effects come from stopping overspending will be the direct result of overspending in the first place.

The sooner the better.

 

If we have substantial, meaningful cuts,

randy streu (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 5:18PM EDT (link)

maybe we don’t NEED a debt ceiling hike. We’re who we are. Who the hell cares what other “serious” countries are doing? We’re not them.. It’s as we strive to become more and more LIKE them that we begin to fail on both an economic and social level.

Substantial, Meaningful cuts take time

YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 7:31PM EDT (link)

And that is why the Debt Ceiling will have to be raised. It is also why it is good to have a Debt Ceiling – it forces us to address the issue and gives us leverage to attach “conditions” to the bill. Negotiate meaningful cuts (which R’s want) in order to get the Debt Ceiling (which D’s want).

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

But we arne't BEING forced to face the issue.

randy streu (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 7:47PM EDT (link)

We just keep raising the debt ceiling with both sides being complicit. At some point, somebody’s gotta be the one to say enough is enough.

How about saying instead...

YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 8:34PM EDT (link)

Instead of “enough is enough” how about saying “we’ll only raise the ceiling if you agree to x, y, z.”
That’s what I mean by being forced to face the issue.

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

I'd be fine with that...

randy streu (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 6:27AM EDT (link)

IF x, y, and z are pretty damned substantial, and IF Z includes not raising that ceiling again.

Then I think we are actually in agreement

YnotNOW (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 5:04PM EDT (link)

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

And ONLY because I don't see the issue moving forward without it happening.

randy streu (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 6:20PM EDT (link)

I still don’t think it’s necessary, and probably never will, but the GOP may have to LET it happen just to be able to get anything else done.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Substantial, Meaningful cuts take time

YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 7:31PM EDT (link)

And that is why the Debt Ceiling will have to be raised. It is also why it is good to have a Debt Ceiling – it forces us to address the issue and gives us leverage to attach “conditions” to the bill. Negotiate meaningful cuts (which R’s want) in order to get the Debt Ceiling (which D’s want).

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

 
 

This is exactly the liberal argument....

jiminga Thursday, April 28th at 6:46AM EDT (link)

we must borrow our way to prosperity. Pure foolishness. We now have the opportunity to put the brakes on a runaway government and giving them the hammer to break the piggy bank is wrong. Maintaining the current debt ceiling will not cause the catastrophy our head-in-the-sand Geithner claims. It only means we cannot borrow more. Bonds already issued will then trade between investors instead of providing a stream of new issues. We will still pay the bond interest with adequate tax revenues. The only difference is Geithner will be forced to decide which bills to pay (he can’t change SS or Medicare payments by law), just like you and I do. Maintaining the current debt ceiling is really the most efficient way to stop increased spending. No negotiation, no deals….just don’t add fuel to the fire.

 

Uncontrolled spending...

beaker55 Thursday, April 28th at 11:58AM EDT (link)

…is what the last election was all about. We didn’t become the greatest nation on earth by trying to be like other countries. Why start now? It’s not a complex equation; it’s very simple: We’re in deep doodoo because the power politicians shamed the federal govt. into adopting purely socialistic re-distributive methods (e.g., culminating in Fannie/Freddie, etc.) in an attempt to equalize the masses for their own political advantage. That has put us 30 years behind the world’s ride down the socialist slide. The latent communist wave in in our culture finally seeped into the federal bureaucracy and now we’re paying for it big time. If you want to use ‘other countries’ as our model, then start radically cutting social programs and wealth re-distribution just like every so-called “other serious country” has been forced to do now. Why do people think we need to be like other countries? (Why do they think they can be better communists than the real Communists?)

 

I do not agee at all with this:

kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 7:01PM EDT (link)

“”If we fail to pass the debt ceiling hike we would absolutely, undoubtedly fall back into a recession, likely a deep one, and our currency and credit rating would collapse”"”

Why would you say that? We have plenty of money from taxes to cover the debt service, furthermore any such problem would be transitory. It would instead cause the congress to actually do some real cutting to try and fix the problem. And that would send a strong positive message to markets.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 

And whos fault would the default be

rdhalste Friday, April 29th at 6:22PM EDT (link)

If we defaulted on the debt if the debt ceiling were not raised, whose fault would that be?

If the debt ceiling were not raised, Could we pay our bills? Yes,
We have enough income coming in to pay not only interest on the debt but the pay to our troops and most entitlements as well. However the question becomes not could we, but would we? We have the money coming in so we could pay the bills if we prioritized them just like you and I have to. So would the current administration prioritize and pay, or would they/he stop their feet like spoiled little children and say, “I’ll show ‘em, I won’t pay”, which is entirely possible because the administration has the power to pay or not pay and if they pay, say who gets paid. Certainly it would mean some austerity programs, but isn’t it time the present administration learned how to budget like the rest of the world.

So, if the debt ceiling is not raised AND the government defaults it becomes the fault of the current administration, or more precisely the head of that administration and no one else

Before answering remember that any administration including the current one is who has the say as to

 
 

You're gut?

reddotor Wednesday, April 27th at 4:47PM EDT (link)

It’s fine and honorable to admit that you don’t understand something enough to have a position on it. But to instead say that you’re basing your position on your gut feeling undermines credibility.

Sorry you feel that way.

Ben Howe (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 5:06PM EDT (link)

This was my attempt to say that after 40 years of being told it’s too complicated to understand, perhaps the simplest solution is correct: As long as we keep raising the debt ceiling, they will keep raising what they spend right with it.

You can always find people to give you the answers that you think reinforce the facts you’ve already decided are true.


Same group

reddotor Wednesday, April 27th at 5:54PM EDT (link)

I appreciate the desire for “checks and balances” on the debt but the ceiling is a farce. The same people that you complain that “they spend right with it” are the ones who decide what the debt ceiling is. I don’t see how it can reasonably be argued as a solution to our problems. Our problems are the people that hold up signs that say “Hands of my medicare” while at the same time complaining about government spending. Hypocrisy, in other words.

Try reading

Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 6:02PM EDT (link)

You don’t know how it can be argued? Try reading the post you’re replying to.

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 
 
 
 

Really?

housewindsor Wednesday, April 27th at 4:58PM EDT (link)

This is a very unserious post about a very serious topic. We would be blamed for the economic collapse that came with this.

~America is the greatest, best county that God ever gave to this earth! – America’s greatest pundit Sean Hannity!

I eat liberals for breakfast!!!

It's an opinion

Ben Howe (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 5:08PM EDT (link)

not a policy paper.

I believe that the evidence shows that the debt ceiling being raised will only encourage more spending. It’s happened 74 times already.

At what point do you say they can’t be trusted, cut them off, and demand better?

You can always find people to give you the answers that you think reinforce the facts you’ve already decided are true.


 

Unserious? Read how Paulson and Kashkari picked the TARP $$amt and you'll see unserious.

Common_Cents (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 5:13PM EDT (link)

“Mr Kashkari admitted that he plucked “a number out of the air” when deciding with Mr Paulson how much funding to request from Congress for the Tarp.

He told The Washington Post that he used his BlackBerry to calculate the bailout figures: “We have $11 trillion residential mortgages, $3 trillion commercial mortgages. Total $14 trillion. Five per cent of that is $700 billion. A nice round number.”

Recalling a conversation with Mr Paulson, he said: “It was a political calculus. I said, ‘We don’t know how much is enough. We need as much as we can get . What about a trillion?’ ‘No way,’ Hank shook his head. I said, ‘Okay, what about 700 billion?’ We didn’t know if it would work. We had to project confidence, hold up the world. We couldn’t admit how scared we were, or how uncertain.”

“Fathom the hypocrisy of a Government
that requires every citizen to prove
they are insured…. but not everyone
must prove they are a citizen.”
-Ben Stein

“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”[especially in DC] – Friedrich Nietzsche

 
 

Your gut is a wise choice...

bs61 Wednesday, April 27th at 5:12PM EDT (link)

I think it’s just because it’s always an ‘emergency’ or the ‘world will collapse’ argument out of DC! And if it’s too complicated to understand, I would say let’s give it a try anyway.

After seeing the townhalls where the supposed Representative was unaware of a current event or issue with the bills, I believe that we know best.

 

False choice of duality

YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 7:25PM EDT (link)

“The government has two choices in front of them: Raise the debt ceiling and continue to borrow while making minimal effort to control spending; or, cut the allowance and force them to end this madness.”

Sorry, but the right answer is neither. The only way to avoid raising the debt ceiling (eventually) would be to balance the budget IMMEDIATELY. Not just cutting discretionary spending, but also Defense (in the middle of 3 wars), Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. Each of these are complicated and will take time – especially with a Dem President and Senate.

It is also irresponsible (and in the not-too-distant future disasterous) to raise the debt with “minimal effort” to control spending. We’re rapidly getting to the point where our bond rating and ability to borrow will suffer, which will make the deficit reductions even harder to effect.

Therefore, there MUST be tied together – REAL spending cuts coupled with the agreement to raise the debt ceiling.

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

 

Hey, Ben Howe. You're aiding and abetting terrorists

kestrel (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 7:41PM EDT (link)

“Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill compared lawmakers trying to block raising the debt ceiling to ‘al Qaeda terrorists.’” See here. Good work, Ben. You must be right.

Indeed, this seems to fit with a principle noted in the Washington Examiner:

“blockquote”…the suspicion is forming that being singled out by Obama as a target and foil may not be a very bad thing.

A month into his term, Obama (approval rating then in the high 60s) squared off with Dick Cheney (approval rating 19 percent) over “torture” and the detention of prisoners. Cheney won that one, and began his slow climb out of the cellar; (and Obama ultimately was forced to embrace the Bush-Cheney protocols).

That done, Obama tried to marginalize Fox News and Rush Limbaugh. They are still here.

Next, Obama and friends tried to make the Tea Party toxic: It dominated the months up to the 2010 midterms, put an end to Obama’s transformative visions, and showed Madam Speaker the door.

In the last days of the campaign for that election, Obama made then-House Minority Leader John Boehner a target and foil; he is now Mister Speaker.

And no one was more of a foil than George W. Bush, blamed by Obama for all of his problems (including the debt, which he himself tripled). Bush ended 2010 with a major best-seller, and sometime before the year ended his ratings and Obama’s converged.”/blockquote”

I agree with you.
P.S. Please pardon my first attempt at a blockquote if it doesn’t turn out.

blockquotes

Diogenes314 (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 10:07PM EDT (link)

put blockquote and /blockquote inside

More help here.

Thanks. --nt

kestrel (Diary) Wednesday, April 27th at 10:42PM EDT (link)
 
 

I found K. Hennessey very instructive on this

Andy Quinn (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 12:23AM EDT (link)

From a blurb he wrote up for an NRO survey of economists:

A parent gives his irresponsible child a credit card. That child maxes out the card by paying only the first month’s installment of an incredibly expensive annual subscription.

The parent confiscates the credit card to prevent new irresponsible spending. He must still, however, pay the existing credit-card debt. He must also honor the remainder of the contract his child has signed, even if doing so means he must incur more credit-card debt and ask for an increase in his credit-card limit. Unless he is willing to risk bankruptcy or a lawsuit, he must honor the financial obligations his family member incurred.

The parent has control only over new spending commitments, and he must now severely cut back on those. He places his child on a strict allowance and cuts spending throughout the family budget.

Congress must raise the debt limit. Not doing so would eventually lead to defaulting on Treasury bonds, a potentially catastrophic event. Along with that debt limit, Congress should impose a statutory cap on all non-interest spending.

The president and his allies will demand a clean bill or weaker reforms. Republicans should allow them to try to pass such a bill. They should vote no but not filibuster. When it becomes clear that such a bill lacks even the simple majority needed to pass the House and the Senate, Republicans will have a stronger hand in negotiations.

I blog.

Maintaing the current debt limit

jiminga Thursday, April 28th at 6:55AM EDT (link)

WILL NOT CAUSE DEFAULT. This is a false premise. Default means we will not pay the interest on bonds and there is plenty of tax revenue to support those obligations. Maintaining the current debt limit will cap spending, which is exatly what we want before attacking spending cuts. The sky is not falling, even though Obama tool Geithner says it is.

Treasury can string along a while but

YnotNOW (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 6:14PM EDT (link)

Toomey is right that we have plenty of income to pay interest on the debt, but the rest of the federal budget will also have to be strung along, and Treasury can only use smoke and mirrors for so long.

Remember, most of the budget is “mandatory” entitlement spending – meaning the law says we have to pay social security, medicare, medicaid, etc. Until we change the law, which will take some time ( and maybe the 2012 election). Defense is “discretionary,” but we’re involved in 3 wars. What are we going to do – stop paying the troops overseas (like the Dems threatened recently)? Now you’re down to non-defense discretionary programs, and they just aren’t large enough to cover the $1.6 Trillion deficit.

So I’m with K Hennessey on this one. Leverage the vote to force spending cuts, now and in the future.

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

 
 
 

Reagan excuted his idea about debt

ihateliberals Thursday, April 28th at 6:24AM EDT (link)

and was able to reverse the Carter damage to our economy. I love President Reagan the problem today though is tht the Progressive Liberals have an unending source of money and it isn’t from Taxes. China will loan the USA any amount it ask for. we can cut taxes but China will fill the void with cash. At this time the only way we have of stopping the runaway spending is to stop raising the debt ceiling. i would rather go through another recession than to continue to borrow money just to feed the insatiable appetite of the Democrats spending machine. My vote is to not raise the debt ceiling. then let’s work on the spending monster. Tying spending to the debt ceiling will just waste time. we need to deal with each measure separately other wise it will turn int an even bigger circus. Cutting taxes is still a great idea though on top of the above measures.

 

The GOP has already blown this argument (as usual)

bk (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 6:54AM EDT (link)

When you have people like Marco Rubio making comments along the lines of “I’ll only vote to raise the debt ceiling if it’s the last time” then the party’s over and the Democrats have won. This is about as useful as saying “I’ll only vote to raise taxes if they’re matched X to 1 with spending cuts.” Don’t worry Charlie Brown, Lucy can’t possibly yank that football away this time, and Wimpy will repay you for that hamburger next Tuesday. Sigh….

The only way to have a ‘last’ debt ceiling increase is to make the previous one the last one by voting against this attempt and any future ones.

having said that

bk (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 6:58AM EDT (link)

It might be kind of amusing to have some Republican say that he proposes eliminating the debt ceiling so that the next Republican President can borrow unlimited amounts of money from China to conduct however many wars he chooses.

As soon as the Dems express outrage, then the reply should be, “Oh, so it is okay to have an actual hard limit and to tie strings to it.” That shoots down the Obama/Dem argument that they want a “clean” bill.

 
 

Spending is always the first problem to solve

mspector (Diary) Thursday, April 28th at 7:35AM EDT (link)

When your budget is out of control the first line of “attack” is to rein in spending. The reason is simple: if you do not restrain spending, then however much new revenue you take in you will always find yourself spending it. The same with credit: increase your ability to borrow and you will inevitably borrow more. This is as true for governments as it is for individuals.

Put another way, you proceed by limiting or reducing spending and then rationalize generation and allocation of revenue. You do not proceed by raising revenue in order to support existing spending. That is impossible for the individual and unworkable for governments. Obama cannot articulate a rationale for pegging revenue to whatever he wants to spend that is at all consistent with reducing the deficit and debt; it is simply a matter that he cannot satisfy his special interest constituencies otherwise. Just as hard cases make for bad law, pandering to special interests makes for bad economics.

Freeze the debt ceiling to force DC to figure out how to make choices that will keep it within its means. Prioritize payment of government debt obligations and salary/benefits for military personnel and let the rest of the chips fall where they may.

“Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.” (Thomas Paine)

“A friend of mine was asked to a costume ball a short time ago. He slapped some egg on his face and went as a liberal economist.” (Ronald Reagan)