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In today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss predictions for tomorrow’s election, and how the market might react.
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Related Links:
Final Gallup Poll sees historic GOP wave into ‘uncharted territory’ of a 60-seat gain or beyond
The Cook Political Report’s Election Predictions
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R+100 House/ R+12 Senate
Tom Armstrong (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 11:58AM EDT (link)That’s my take. I might be low.
From your mouth to Gods ears. (nt)
zipbags Monday, November 1st at 12:21PM EDT (link)The Market Reaction
capedconservative Monday, November 1st at 12:07PM EDT (link)I suspect it already has reacted over the last few weeks…
CC
Of course it has
Adjoran (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 5:12PM EDT (link)as it always does.
Investors don’t exist in a bubble – they see all the information everyone else does, and are often able to process and interpret it more accurately.
Markets love divided government in DC because nothing gets done. Even if the status quo is a bad situation, as long as it is stable investors and businesses can plan ahead. Uncertainty is the enemy.
If NRO is to be believed
Sean (SIConservative) (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 12:54PM EDT (link)Martha Coakley in pants may earn his nickname: http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/251734/mcmahon-aide-were-within-margin-error-brian-bolduc .
60-65 House Seats
realisticconservative Monday, November 1st at 1:22PM EDT (link)8-9 Senate Seats.
The Fed meeting will have a greater impact
Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 1:45PM EDT (link)on the markets than the election (ie the statement at 2:15ET Wednesday). And I am actually starting to think that unless Obama works with the GOP House (doubtful), this gridlock may not be well received by the markets until 2012 rolls around.
Prediction is House +48
Senate +7
If your election prediction is right
distantvoter (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 2:33PM EDT (link)then there’s a very good chance that your market prediction is right.
On the other hand, if the Gallup poll is right (+15), we’ll see a gain of 70 or more in the House and almost certainly a Republican majority Senate.
I suspect a gain of 50 seats is already priced into the markets, but if it is a gain of 70 or more, I suspect the markets will like that, despite the gridlock. For one, it would be such a repudiation of all the anti-business nonsense the Donks have been pushing. For two, it greatly increases the chances that the tax hikes won’t actually happen.
75, 8.5 (w/Upside of +0.5)
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 2:14PM EDT (link)If you could run a monte carlo sim on this, you’d get 75GOP, 8.5 Senate seats and between 0 and 1 Dem Senators switching after the beatdown. Although the switches would probably only occur if the Senate ended 50-50.
Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler
90-100 House, 11 Senate
Steve S. (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 5:18PM EDT (link)I also predict that you will see seats flip to the GOP that aren’t even on the Democrats’ radar screens. (MO-5, NM-2, and NC-4 are two that immediately come to mind.)
This election “TEA-nami” will be bigger than the Washington pundits and intelligentsia can possibly imagine. If you have a DVR, make sure to record MSNBC – you may just see Keith Olbermann’s head explode live on television.
http://www.hopeforamericacoalition.org
“Government is not the solution to our problem; government IS the problem.” – Ronald Reagan, First Presidential Inaugural Address, January 20, 1981
“It does not take a majority to prevail… but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” – Samuel Adams
90-100 House, 11 Senate
Steve S. (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 5:23PM EDT (link)** MODIFIED TO CORRECT ERRORS **
I also predict that you will see seats flip to the GOP that aren’t even on the Democrats’ radar screens. (MO-5, NM-3, and NC-4 are three that immediately come to mind.)
This election “TEA-nami” will be bigger than the Washington pundits and intelligentsia can possibly imagine. If you have a DVR, make sure to record MSNBC – you may just see Keith Olbermann’s head explode live on television.
http://www.hopeforamericacoalition.org
“Government is not the solution to our problem; government IS the problem.” – Ronald Reagan, First Presidential Inaugural Address, January 20, 1981
“It does not take a majority to prevail… but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” – Samuel Adams
I'd love for this to be the outcome,
froster (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 10:30PM EDT (link)and then we can finally announce that all polling is wrong.
I’d predict 70-80 House, and 9 Senate.
Republican from California.
House R +75, Senate R+10
JSobieski (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 10:35PM EDT (link)House races are darn hard to poll, so it makes sense that those races would underestimate the tsunami that arrives mere hours from now
Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf
House +110 . Senate +9
rsexteriors (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 7:15PM EDT (link)Christine O’Donnell will WIN. The Senate +9 prediction is only because I feel the Libtards will be able to cheat enough to steal 2 or 3 Senate seats. Senate seats are easier to steal because they are statewide elections
Even in my State of Pa the current Libtard, Rendell, is out there predicting that there will be suprise because Philly and Pittsburg democrat voters will get out the vote. He would know. Allot of dead and non-existing people vote in Philly and Rendell is part of that.
But they will not be able to steal too many because the tidal wave is coming
the oxygen thins out when we get too high
tngal (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 7:53PM EDT (link)I’m seeing extremely high numbers all over the blogosphere, and am hoping its just over excited jubilance, or something. Could we be reaching just a bit?
I’m afraid to wake up tomorrow and see some pundster pronounce” New seats added to House overnight. Republicans to get 734. Dems hold 6. ”
39 to win…. everything else is gravy.
The "coin-flip" contract on intrade is between +60 & +65
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 10:51PM EDT (link)Even if you take intrade.com with a grain of salt, that still speaks volumes.
It’s just a point of reference, but intrade is saying +80 is as likely as only +39.
And of course, intrade isn’t as prescient as the gurus here predicting 90 and above!
Click to see full size image
I'm sticking with +92 and +11 senate seats
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Monday, November 1st at 10:14PM EDT (link)I thought my numbers were going to be high until I read this.
Of course, if it’s 60 and 7, I’m not exactly going to cry ….
That is actually my biggest worry is that we’re going to do something exceptional like 60 / 7 and be disappointed.
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
Since this is the predictions thread...
Sean (SIConservative) (Diary) Tuesday, November 2nd at 8:09AM EDT (link)Gov + 8 (Lose CA, HI, RI (goes I), VT; Win IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY)
Senate +8 (ND, AR, IN, WI, CO, NV, PA, WA)
House +65
State Sen +7.5 (AL, AK (from even), ME, NV, NH, NY, NC, WI)
State House + 8.5 (AL, IN, IA, MI, MT (from even), NH, OH, PA, WI)
I'll join the predictions
distantvoter (Diary) Tuesday, November 2nd at 8:23AM EDT (link)If I get it right it proves nothing, of course.
Senate +9 (ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, IL, NV, CO, WA), The usual suspects won’t change to Republican, but Manchin will by the end of 2011.
House +78.