I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. He actually (well Heritage did the analysis, but he put his name on it) believes that unemployment is going to get down to 4% by 2015 and UNDER 3% by 2018. The only times we have been under 5% since the late 60s (before the boomers and women really entered the labor force) was during the tech bubble of the late 90s and the housing bubble of the mid 2000s (ie both bubble economies). The last time we were under 4% was 69 and the last time under 3% was 1953.

I really wish the budget estimators (of both sides) would use blue chip economic forecasts for their inputs instead of always assuming (with no real basis in fact or reality (and always dismissing potential “black swans”) that they have somehow invented a better economic mousetrap in addition to revamping the budget.