Obama is the Big Winner in the Debt-Ceiling Debate


This isn’t Monday-morning quarterbacking. For one thing, it’s not football season yet. For another, the game wasn’t played on Sunday afternoon. It’s been going on for weeks, with twists and turns more reminiscent of comic opera than football.

Even so, today’s media game has been all about deciding who got the better deal. Many of the partisans think they came up short, and are looking to blame their guys. In the media (which sees any legislation as an achievement, no matter how hollow, cynical, or ultimately ineffectual), many are scoring this as a win for both sides. (That’s to say, all of the parties will be able to go back to their respective bases with something to brag about.)

Around the middle of last week, I lost track of the specific content of the deals, which was in constant flux. And the media lost track of it too! The only reporting, it seemed, was about who was up (Boehner, Reid, Obama) and who was down at any point in time. That tells you all you need to know about how cynical and empty this whole process has been.

I’ve given some of my views on the deal that was struck in Coffee & Markets. Suffice to say that the deal is substance-lite. Conservatives will find (or have found) that tax increases and defense cuts are indeed on the table as the fiscal debate continues. Liberals are dismayed that the sacred status of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid was not enshrined in first-order language. They fear that cuts may be made to these programs. (Of course, they need not worry, but they will.)

The leadership in Congress, on both sides and in both houses, comes out of this in varying shades of black-and-blue. But ALL of them, even Pelosi, are black-and-blue. This episode won’t go down in history as Congress’s finest hour.

But while the economic and policy objectives of the fight may be clear enough to partisans outside of Congress (and might even be somewhat meaningful to ordinary people), this ultimately was a fight about politics.

And in the political analysis, there is only one player who came out of this with everything he wanted: Barack Obama.

Obama wasn’t trying to advance a policy objective. Not even once did he let the articulation of such a thing pass his lips. Rather he had two specific objectives that he had to get at all costs:

1) To get Republicans to propose specific spending cuts that Democrats can use against them in the coming elections, while not making any such proposals himself; and
2) To silence the fiscal debate until after his election in 2012.

The president won on both counts. Everything else that was at stake in the negotiation was a nice-to-have for him, not a need-to-have.

No one else got their must-have objectives. The Republicans have to face the prospect of tax increases combined with spending cuts that will be phony at best. And the Democrats will have to keep justifying entitlement programs that we can no longer afford.

The downside for conservatives is clear: We’ve lost our last chance for a meaningful discussion on fiscal reform, until there’s another financial or economic crisis.

But liberals have lost even more. It turns out that Obama was only willing to fight hard for his own political objectives. If liberals choose to be honest with themselves, they’ll see that both they and the media made the mistake of conflating their policy interests with Obama’s personal interests.

Obama himself never made that mistake for a second.


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45 Comments Leave a comment

That's just part of the downside for conservatives.

avgjo (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:31PM EDT (link)

This brilliant commission of that piece Boehner’s can put other crap up for vote, including card-check, abortion and amnesty. Score one for the Constitution, Tea Partiers.

We’ll get tax increases out of this, no doubt. If anyone doubts that the GOP will cave on the commission’s recommendations after the last two debacles, I’ve got lots of swampland to sell them.

I still don’t see an orchestrated, mass call for Boehner’s primary challenge.

They are more scared of the Leftist media and the Hill popular crowd than they are of their own constituents. Listening to the softball interviews by Rush, Hannity and others of Boehner and seeing how little our own conservative media has directed at the sell-outs on our own side, it’s little wonder.

Ceterum autem censeo, Obamaecuram esse delendam.

It’s the morality, stupid.

 

I'm not so sure

eddiethegeek Monday, August 1st at 4:34PM EDT (link)

I’m not so sure Obama is the winner. He appeared weak and very un-Presidential while Congress negotiated. He certainly was not leading. While he may have achieved his own political goals, I think he permanently lost many independents in the process.

AND, since a credit downgrade certainly seems likely, that will be pinned on him, even though he will try to blame the conservatives.

I'm saying he got what he set out to get.

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:39PM EDT (link)

You’re saying that he may have made a bad choice about what he set out to get.

I think you’re absolutely right. He’ll end regretting how he handled this.

He doesn't have it quite yet.

snowshooze (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:50PM EDT (link)

I hold out for hope.

 
 

I agree...Obama looks like a schmuck

BACFA (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:40PM EDT (link)

He played and LOST. Overnight he worked the media outlets to build up a belief in Australia and China that the debt crisis had passed. The UK news cycle picked it up, which New York picked up and then everyone wakes up with this news and wonders…what happened? Markets respond and then when a tiny scratch on the surface reveals that there is no deal.
It looks to me like he’s the worst poker player ever.
I also think he prefers the 14.4 solution so he can get the dictatorship he so much desires.
Know them by their fruits. This guy’s actions are clear.

A hundred times every day I remind myself that my inner and outer life are based on the labors of other men, living and dead, and that I must exert myself in order to give in the same measure as I have received and am still receiving… –Einstein

I don't think Obama won at all

victrola Monday, August 1st at 5:02PM EDT (link)

This whole debacle has badly damaged his already weak standing with the American people, with poll numbers at an all time low. It also highlighted in a big way the coming fiscal train wreck if we don’t change course. This whole battle was the equivalent of getting a foreclosure notice nailed to your front door, it definitely got people’s attention.

Raising the debt ceiling is usually a mere formality, no Congress has ever successfully taken away the United States ability to pay bills it has already promised. To get these concessions out of a vote that’s normally a non-event shows that the debate is on our turf.

Would bigger cuts have been better, with real reforms to MediCare and Social Security? Of course, but that was NEVER going to happen. I really never saw a coherent plan of what the more “pure” Tea Party members were expecting, just that it was never enough. I also think a protracted “Mexican Standoff” with the Republican House and Obama would have ended badly for us and the debt ceiling getting raised regardless. Obama would have been able to pull Republicans into the mess he created with our credit rating being downgraded. Now howeverm if the US credit is now downgraded, it will be ALL on Obama, he won’t have the Tea Party as a scapegoat on the debt ceiling.

This is certainly not a home run, but I would rate it as a single or double with a very bloodied Obama as the pitcher. The debt ceiling debate was not the right venue to make these kind of wholesale, across the board reforms. Instead of bouncing checks, let’s have a Congress that doesn’t write the checks in the first place. What will decide the direction the US takes, and whether we go off a cliff will be determined by who the American people elect in the 2012 elections.

I agree. Maybe we traded punts

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 11:01PM EDT (link)

Or maybe we got a first down on our own 30 with 70 to go for the score.

One thing’s for sure, there’s a lot of work to do. But with the Dems defending their +6 Senate pickup in the 2006 this cycle and their +8 pickup from 2008 in the next, I’d have to say that we have the ball and control our own destiny.

And while we’re at it, let’s throw in the style points of figure skating. Obomy didn’t look too smooth out there.


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Kowalski's silver lining

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 11:14PM EDT (link)

While the Debt Ceiling won’t need to be addressed by Congress until after the next election, by no means have the Debt and Deficit issues gone into hibernation.

Everyone knows there’s more to do. Which is just another albatross around Obama’s neck heading into the election.


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Avoiding the debaucle (in the eyes of the public)

lastgopinillinois (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 1:28AM EDT (link)

“Everyone knows there’s more to do. Which is just another albatross around Obama’s neck heading into the election”

It isnt really. Remember how Obama tossed this mess to the congress and avoided it himself as much as possible, while the Reps constantly called for him to submit his plan so they (and the public) would know where he stood.
Yet he did make plenty of statements publicly demogogueing the Republicans idiology.
This bill ensures he will not need to (publicly) be involved in round two of the debt ceiling debate. Which is what he wanted for the first round.
It is all about the election for Obama.

In the beginning, God created earth to be an extension of his vast Kingdom and his LOVE was so great that he wanted to share it with man, whom he created in his own image and likeness and gave him free will.
To this very principal, the Founding Fathers of our nation decreed that freedom is a God-given in-alienable right of all the people.

 
 
 
 

Exactly, o lost big time and is now a loser

renny (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 8:17AM EDT (link)

a very bad image for someone running for office.

o got no tax raise, so he cannot use the Clinton mantra against Bush I that you lied.

o got nearly equal cuts to his debt increase on paper, whether they materialize until we get ride or him or not.

o appeared before the US populace several times in the last month and LOST popularity points with EACH appearance. People are tired of seeing and hearing him and that feeling will only increase as he campaigns and campaigns and etc. because he doesn’t know anything else.

o was abandoned by the Dems. (they did that to Carter) in the end and worked out their evil on their own.

o is now the progressives’ true lost hope, and they will not support him as they did in 2008, altho’ they will surely vote for him because they wouldn’t dare vote to the right. But the stupendous money and new voter registrations, the feet on the ground, the transfixed students, they will all be gone.

o is definitely the loser no matter what CBS says or the NYTimes writes. And people know it.

 
 
 

This may be what gets him re-elected

nvrepub (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:46PM EDT (link)

Only if a third party comes of it.

JX12 (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 2:05AM EDT (link)

Aside from that, I’m convinced he’s still lost too many independents to be able to rely on their support in 2012.

I’m also pretty sure he’s lost the “white guilt” vote. They need only vote for him once to satisfy that guilt and to be able to “say they did.” They’re free to vote for his opponent this time around, and I’m sure many will do so.

Lastly, there were news reports shortly after the 2008 election indicating that some 20% of self-described conservatives had voted for Obama. In retrospect, this comes as no surprise, given the propensity of many conservatives to want to send a message to RINOs such as McCain. Unless we blow the nomination process again, I doubt that’ll happen this time. Even if we do blow it, there may be more of an inclination for these same people to stay home to send their message, rather than cast another vote for someone as demonstrably destructive to the country as Obama.

As to the third party thing, let’s hope it doesn’t pick up steam. The solution is to primary the RINOs and/or those who otherwise betray our trust, replace them with tea-party type conservatives, and vote GOP in the general election. It may be too early to tell, but I have some confidence that more and more people are starting to realize that this is the way to handle it – not a third party.

 
 

Obama lost in this process, looked weak

Freedoms Truth (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 4:51PM EDT (link)

This process exposed all his flaws as a non-leade: incapable of holding a strong position, incapable of sincere articulation, incapable of real charisma when it counts. A bad negotiator, a bad leader, and a man whose stewardship of both the budget and economy is abysmal.

Given how friendly the media is to him, he came out pretty bad.

Whether he escapes from another debt ceiling vote, he still ‘owns’ the deficit and it will be topic #1 in the election, along with his miserable jobs record.

Last, Obama wanted Republicans to be forced to vote for tax increases or get blamed for default. He got neither there. He may yet get it out of the commission, but its doubtful he will look any stronger due to a committee proposal.

Obama lost in this process, looked weak, peevish, and not ‘in command’. It’s not an accident that his poll numbers are a lot worse now than 3 months ago.

a Phyrric Victory for Obama--with a short shelf life

wbb1950 Monday, August 1st at 6:25PM EDT (link)

Morris predicted that Obama would win the debt debate, but the Republican Party would win the election. What we all saw at close quarter was a president who was incapable of leading his own party and was so bloody inept in the negotiation process that both sides threw him out of the room, and brought him in later to make sure he does not veto the damned thing. Worse, we saw the spectacle of a president who warned us that the country was toast if no deal was reached by August 2, but also told us that if it did not include tax increases that he would veto it. This was a trifle Hitleresque, and hardly in keeping with his gig as the Messiah. I think this whole thing woke independent up to the fact that what Gertrude Stein said of Oakland is equally true of Obama, i.e. there is no there there.

 
 

You're right

surfcitysocal Monday, August 1st at 5:10PM EDT (link)

Obama got everything he wanted. A ceiling increase with virtually no spending impediments, propped up by smoke-and-mirror meaningless cuts. And let’s not forget the big, fat political windfall he gained by postponing any further discussion of debt and spending until after the election when he’s safely ensconced in the White House for another four years.

The GOP, conservatives and the tea party got squat.

I knew that Obama would never flinch. Why would he? He’s got the media in his back pocket promoting his case that Republicans don’t play well with others. The GOP had to be willing to go past the false Aug. 2 date to force Obama’s hand. And they weren’t. More importantly, they never established a message that gained traction or got the upper hand in the media circus.

Just once, just once, I’d like to see an elected official be willing to go through the fire without caring whether or not he or she would be reelected. This disaster convinces me more than ever term limits are essential…now.

then we need term limits

wbb1950 Monday, August 1st at 6:30PM EDT (link)

That is the only way politicians will ever think beyond their own re election to the vital interests of this country.

Problem with term limits

ag8tor Tuesday, August 2nd at 6:43AM EDT (link)

is that the only ones who can vote on them would never bring them up. That would mean getting off the public dole. They certainly want to stay there as long as possible for their own benefit. They certainly don’t represent ANYONE but themselves. These self-absorbed do-nothings have one job only and that’s to get re-elected not to serve the people that sent them there!

 
 

Our message and the media circus

lastgopinillinois (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 1:48AM EDT (link)

“More importantly, they never established a message that gained traction or got the upper hand in the media circus”

I thought that the message coming from our guys was mostly brilliant and well articulated.
Its just that none of it was broadcast across the MSM
The general public does not have access to our message unless they happen to watch C-Span, search for conservative news on the internet or happen to be among the 40% of households who have ACCESS to expanded cable AND happen to patronize FNC.
Conservatives have all the access to liberal politics they want to see.
Liberals are bombarded with a neverending drumbeat of nothing but their own liberal baloney day in and day out.

In the beginning, God created earth to be an extension of his vast Kingdom and his LOVE was so great that he wanted to share it with man, whom he created in his own image and likeness and gave him free will.
To this very principal, the Founding Fathers of our nation decreed that freedom is a God-given in-alienable right of all the people.

 
 

obama won this one bigtime

brianlordan Monday, August 1st at 5:15PM EDT (link)

hard to do, but his incompetence has been trumped by Macconnell– who gave away the only good card to come out of Boehner 3– ie– Obama only got 1T from b3.0 and had to come back in Spring 2012— 6!! months before election!!– looking for Dad to raise his allowance one more time.
Every president should have to run on his economic stewardship— now Obam a has another 2,800,000,000,000.00 $ !!! to squander/misallocate/ reward friends and potential voting sectorspp AT OUR EXPENSE!!. .

this bill is a disaster- we should object to the policy. the politics and the procedure..
I hope the senate consevatives attempt to replacew macconnell with jim demint. we are going backawrds under this kijd of feckless’ leadership’.
this act should more corectly be called the Barack HuseinObama reelction act of 2011

No he doesn't

tea4me Monday, August 1st at 6:02PM EDT (link)

“now Obam a has another 2,800,000,000,000.00 $ !!! to squander/misallocate/ reward friends and potential voting sectorspp AT OUR EXPENSE!!’

Only to the extent that prior bills passed by the prior loon House and Senate were appropriated for it.

With a Republican House…he has no power to hand out new candy to anyone.

 
 

There is no doubt that this was Obama's objective

runner12 (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 6:09PM EDT (link)

all along. Do nothing and make an attempt to look like the ” adult” in the room. It was all about him, He also wants to be able to control the narrative running up to his re-election campaign and does not want this issue coming up at that time.

He did succeed at achieving these two points, the question is whether he calculated the results accurately.

As of now, I would say he mis-calculated. First, his do-nothing approach has not helped his poll numbers, it has hurt him. He is beginning to look like a weak, entitled hack who throws a tantrum anytime anyone disagrees with him. He also appears to care very little about America’s job situation.

As for avoiding the debt issue, I am not sure that this eon’t continue to be an issue for him, If the Tea Party conservatives continue to stay on message and if the economy continues to tank, Obama will have to answer these questions.

 

No matter what

dock3511 Monday, August 1st at 6:23PM EDT (link)

The powers that be in Wash D C will end up committing the American taxpayer with an official debt of $20 trillion before the USA goes down. The hobbit-terrorists of the Tea Party staked its hopes, against all odds, on a GOP that would pull it’s collective head out of it’s ass for once and do what it takes. Of course, they could not find in themselves to do so. The only force that will irrevocably determine change will be an economic tsunami. They will raise taxes, they will spend more of our money, they will lie, they will boorrow until even the Chinese squirm.

Would the GOP be able to do it with the Presidency & both houses of Congress?

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 11:22PM EDT (link)

WIth a supermajority in 2014?

The Dems are defending their +6 Senate pickup from 2006 this cycle and their +8 Senate pickup from 2008 in 2014.

The Tea Party had a significant influence as, Paul Ryan put it, as 1/2 of one branch of govt. Win the other half of Congress and the Presidency, and the RINOs won’t be able to hide behind “compromise”.


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Doubtful

ag8tor Tuesday, August 2nd at 6:47AM EDT (link)

They don’t have the backbone to do anything worthwhile. Weakest group ever. I don’t think both houses and the presidency would help at this point. They are a rudderless ship. Thye had this situation in hand before they canablized themselves. It’s hard to get anything accomplished when your so-called leaders turn on you. What a guttless, worthless group.

 
 
 

Obama won nothing

tea4me Monday, August 1st at 6:35PM EDT (link)

All this will be forgotten by the general public in a few weeks. Most haven’t even been paying attention.

What they won’t forget is this disaster of an economy…which is heading down hill like the Energizer Bunny.

 

And this disaster of a bill that's about to be signed...

tea4me Monday, August 1st at 6:36PM EDT (link)

…will ensure it keeps heading south.

Just like his poll numbers

 

Obama's not the only one who got what he wanted

Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 6:57PM EDT (link)

From a prior post from Mr. C.:

“Not raising the debt ceiling is unambiguously worse for the economy under all scenarios. You can disagree with that, but if you do, then I’ll ask you how many business you’ve run, how many corporate financings you’ve closed, and how many Wall St. crises you’ve lived through first hand.”

So we’ll raise it, and wait anxiously for the next urgent, drop dead date, and we’ll raise it again, and then we’ll listen to all the genius patriots on Wall Street who thought up CDO’s and begged for bailout money because WE’LL ALL DIE IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN and have closed corporate financings and lived through Wall Street crises right there at the corner of Wall and Broadway scream the time after that about how WE JUST CAN’T STAND THE ECONOMIC HIT, and we’ll raise it again, and again and again.

$20 trillion? Do I hear $30 trillion? How about $35 trillion? Yes! There by the bronze sculpture of the bull! Do I hear $40 trillion?

Before I re-ban myself, and do not worry mods, I will, I would state that Wall Street – and yes, I know, Francis is the real deal blah blah blah – got exactly what it wanted as well. The country will not recover from this, but hey – all those guys have their millions tucked away somewhere, bottle service is back for the whores at the bars all over Manhattan and Goldman is trading at about a buck thirty-five, so if they can find an organic farmer or two to deliver food to the Hamptons or the Vineyard, what the hell, right? And if things really fly apart, isn’t Spain lovely? Care to go with me, Muffy? Mind if the Swedish maid comes too?

Congratulations, and do not try to argue for a minute that Wall Street is not joined at the hip with Obama.

Lassiez les bon temps rouler.

 

So, let's see if I understand you

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 7:10PM EDT (link)

If I strip away all the extranea, what I’m left with here is that you think raising the debt ceiling was a bad thing to do.

Also, I’ve been working in or around Wall St. for more than 20 years now. I own Goldman stock. Although I prefer Switzerland to Spain, I get that you think people like me are part of the problem.

And of course that’s cool. But I’ve been dissed by some pretty remarkable people in my time. So far, you’re not impressing me.

EDIT: This comment is for Jack_Savage. Sorry I didn’t attach it correctly to his post.

Here are the points, including more extranea because I like it

Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 8:09PM EDT (link)

I have no idea what you actually do, so I can’t comment on whether you are part of the problem. I do know from highly placed sources that site Mgmt. has little statues of you taped to their bedposts, so I assume it is something worthwhile. I do know you work on Wall Street, so please tell them all to go to hell for me. Actually, don’t, because I will be up there in a few weeks, so I will do it myself.

I do think that the geniuses who came up with CDO’s and can’t wipe their posterior without being backstopped by the taxpayers ARE a part of the problem, to answer your question. I took my MBA and went into manufacturing because I dig people who actually make things. Sorry I didn’t head to Manhattan, but I wasn’t impressed.

Re: the debt ceiling – I guess we didn’t have much of a choice, huh? But anyone who thinks the debt ceiling won’t be raised time and time again is an idiot. Anyone who thinks Wall Street is not rooting for continued, huge, unconditional raises in the debt ceiling is an idiot. Anyone who thinks Wall Street is prepared to bear any pain whatsoever to help this country are idiots.

We all have been talked into investing in stocks as the basis of our retirement. If the market panics, we lose billions. We are held hostage as surely as the sun rises, and you and Obama know it, although the people who hold us hostage don’t have the nuts to actually put a gun to our heads.

Now if you were a typical Wall Street jerk, which you don’t seem to be, I am sure you would now explain to me, using little words that I could understand, how we should just be grateful the debt ceiling was raised, and it’ll be OK, because ninety bazillion dollars of debt is only 23.44567 % of GDP, and the currency arbitragers and technical analysts and astronomers agree that this will all be fine and that we really don’t NEED a balanced budget and if we did, and all put our smarty brains together we would find a way, just not right this second because the 18th deficit commission has not reported yet and we really need to see what they say. I’ll tune in to CNBC for this. Or is it MSNBC?

Here is the bottom line. We are Greece, except for right now really big and relevant. It won’t last much longer. We are headed straight for hell. I have never been more discouraged about our country than I am at this very moment. I would give up every dime I have invested and saved and work until the day I drop dead in order to spare my children and grandchildren the pain and chaos that is heading toward them like a tsunami. Actually, I would take a bullet to the face to prevent it.

That’s about it. Self re-banning is now in effect, assuming I haven’t been real re-banned.

Your anger is misdirected in many respects

JSobieski (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 8:32PM EDT (link)

To blame a particular type of transaction as being inherently evil is foolish. Just like firearms can kill if misused but are not inherently evil, CDOs have a place in the modern economy. You remind me of the Democrat diatribes against derivatives that happened in the early 2000s after the tech bubble burst. We have always had bubbles. An examination of American economic history from 1860 to 1910 makes that quite clear. You don’t need complex financial instruments (or government intervention for that matter) to create a depression. Of course there are things that government does that enhances the likelihood of a train wreck.

More importantly, you seem upset that the debt ceiling was raised. Seems to me that you should be angry at the people in Congress for not proposing a plan to truly cut spending instead of merely “cutting” against a baseline.

The delta between the CCB that everyone apparently fell in love with and this terd that we ended up with is not as big as you seem to believe. To blame Wall Street for that is misplaced. We could have demanded that our representatives make real cuts. We didn’t, so they didn’t.

Wall Street is the not the Vanguard of our society. They do exhibit SYMPTOMS of our problems, but Wall Street is not the cause of our problems.

We are the source of our problems.

P.S. The US could have gone on for some time slow paying vendors, selling assets (such as stock in banks and auto companies), and other machinations. It would have been ugly, but ultimately the ceiling would need to be raised. Nobody in public life was actually proposing a plan that would balance the budget in 2012. NOBODY.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

Incredibly, I agree with most of this

Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 9:06PM EDT (link)

But it misses the point.

 
 

Well, heck, here are a few small words

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 8:35PM EDT (link)

A balanced budget doesn’t work. If you’re a manufacturing executive, you know you can’t make stuff without capital. And capital comes from credit. And credit is priced off benchmark credits. And benchmark credits are from the UST.

I left out the math but you can look it up, if you didn’t get it in your B-school finance class.

That said, it’s OBVIOUSLY unsustainable to run deficits of 9% of GDP. 3% is ok in normal times, more like 2% should be the max today.

The reality of economic life in the US is DELEVERAGING. It has to happen in the private sector, and it IS happening. It’s going to give us a lost decade, but that’s been apparent to anyone with eyes for three years now.

We need a different fiscal plan, preferably a fundamental restructuring of entitlements, but we’re not going to get it by blocking debt-ceiling increases. I don’t know what business you’re in, but I can tell you that some of the businesses I’m in are directly impacted by the kind of government cuts that would result from immediately knocking out 40% of federal spend, which is 10% of the economy. I have shareholders, and (much more importantly) I have employees.

You might respond to that by saying that, in the event the debt-ceiling was blocked, that the Treasury would have found ways to spend as much as they do now, without creating debt. You’re right, but it’s not a game they could keep up permanently. (Hint: inflation, which some in the Fed are now starting to worry about.)

MBAs don’t impress me. Especially not the Harvard and Wharton variety. I’ve hired and had to fire too many of those bozos.

You’re in manufacturing. Did you start your own company successfully? THAT would be a start on impressing me. Otherwise, you’re still stuck on extranea.

A few more words

Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 9:05PM EDT (link)

I know that there are many people who want you to be impressed with them. I am not one of them. Sorry.

What you posted above is factually correct. There is no disagreement there. But let’s get back to my points, and I will let you have the last word on them.

Do you agree or disagree that since most of America has money invested in the stock market, anything like this, from a political point of view, turns into a hostage situation, with Wall Street (meaning traders) being complicit if it doesn’t get what it wants?

Do you believe that Wall Street has comported itself well in the past four years? Or am I wrong to believe that losses have been socialized and gains privatized? Was it all just for my own good, and I owe everyone a big thank-you?

Do you even believe this country is in trouble, or do you believe that this level of debt and the deficit spending that is projected for the next decade is OK? Do you think that at some point in the future the budget not only has to be balanced, but has to run a surplus, in order to draw down the debt? If things are not OK, then:

“I don’t know what business you’re in, but I can tell you that some of the businesses I’m in are directly impacted by the kind of government cuts that would result from immediately knocking out 40% of federal spend, which is 10% of the economy. I have shareholders, and (much more importantly) I have employees.”

Fine. Who bears the pain, and when?

And one other thing – you are exactly right that Obama has won. But again, he is not the only one that got what he wanted.

Good night.

Stock market

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 9:55PM EDT (link)

To my mind the public stock markets are not the real stock market. The real market is PE. The public markets are where private investors go to dump their garbage after they’ve sucked the juice out of it.

To a great extent, we don’t build great companies with public funding anymore in America. Certainly not like we once did. I think that’s an awful shame.

And if you’re an investor in the public stock markets, well, I feel for you.

I think that on net, the financial industry today is parasitic to the real economy, and I’ve felt that way for quite a lot of years. Nearly all the years I’ve been involved in finance, actually. If you know anything about the microstructure of derivatives markets (and maybe you do), you’re probably as disgusted as I am. And they’ve gotten measurably worse just in the past two years.

I think that investment firms need to be restructured such that the primary stakeholders (be they partners, MDs or shareholders) must be fully exposed to the downside as well as the upside.

I believe that the government can and MUST impose much stricter capital requirements on banks. In this, I’m in full agreement with the recent Tarullo proposals. If anything they don’t far enough. Certainly Basel III doesn’t go far enough. And the “con-cons” that people like Credit Suisse are talking about are too geeky to work right in a crisis, when you need them.

Your questions about “is the country in trouble” are too contradictory and full of red herrings and straw men to answer reasonably. So I’ll pass on those.

Who bears the pain from a contracting economy? Don’t make me angry, Jack Savage. You know the answer as well as I do: it’s the people who want to work at good jobs and provide for their families, but can’t because the wealth creators are being taken out of position to create jobs.

 
 

Very good debate here

mirac777 (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 7:51AM EDT (link)

Much to the dismay of over-educated know-it-alls, Game. set, and match goes to Mr. Savage, hands down. Well done.

Why do I take this stance? It is very simple, I think it is atrocious that asshats in Wallstreet got bailouts from the taxpayers, all because they made bad judgements in investment choices.Isn’t the stock market a place where you win some and lose some based on your choices of investments? I personally think those making poor investment choices should never be exempt from taking the losses irregardless of the cause of the losses. Suck it up and learn from your mistakes, instead of climbing into bed with government power brokers and eiltist thieves.

United we stand…. Divided we fall.. into the pits of Socialism.

 
 
 
 

If for no other reason than he stood above it

kowalski (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 7:56PM EDT (link)

I agree with you on the main point. The rest of the nuance will have to wait because I’m busy this afternoon but….I also lost track of the specifics and got disgusted about the quality of the reporting, which was such a personality contest/reality TV show.

If for no other reason than he stood above it, you’re correct – he was the least damaged by anything that happened. I don’t think it’s going to be a huge victory for him but he took the least flak. It would make a good Monty Python skit: in a medieval castle and all throughout its grounds, in the moat, on the drawbridge, and even inside the King’s living quarter a battle raged on, with people getting maced and sliced and diced and meanwhile the King just kind of darts around the place, calling for a little pause here and there, making a little speech, grabbing a bite to eat while the melee rages on all around him…

You know like:

One guy is about to kill another guy on the big dining room table with a huge axe and the King just darts in and says: “Uppp….wait – would you stop that for just one second please?” Incredibly, both men do, and the King yanks a tasty looking wing from a turkey and grabs a half-finished glass of wine, exiting the room. All you hear is the BANG! of the axe falling and a blood-curdling scream as the King goes back into his Study, taking a sip and admiring the bouquet.

But you know, Francis the public is fickle

kowalski (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 7:58PM EDT (link)

The day Bin Laden bit the dust Barbara Walters couldn’t stop herself from gushing about how it was just positively curtains for anyone who would try to run against the Big O in 2012. Curtains!

And that bounce didn’t last very long, if there was any at all.

 

Greetings, Kowalski

Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 10:18PM EDT (link)

Hope your business is going well these days. Best of luck to you.

 
 

Obama got what HE wanted, but no one else did.

carolina Monday, August 1st at 9:56PM EDT (link)

Even the libs will start to get a clue. The progressives already know it. The GOP knows it. It has been stated by several and has even made it into the lamestream media.
BO screwed the country to get what HE wanted. “be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it”
I do not think this helps BO one bit. I think it hurts him a great deal.

And so you are correct.

snowshooze (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 10:26PM EDT (link)

We lost every gambit, every turn and every point.
It was a clean sweep, and a total sellout.
We have to finish the job we started in ’10

 
 

It all depends what "win" means

fortcollins (Diary) Monday, August 1st at 11:10PM EDT (link)

(To paraphrase a certain former President.)

+Conservatives wanted a balanced budget. We received a vote on a BBA, which is worse than no vote at all. Because the amendment needs a supermajority to pass, all red-state Senate Democrats seeking reelection in 2012 have cover to vote “for” the BBA, knowing that it will still fail to pass. Far from placing them on record against a BBA, the vote will hand them talking points for the 2012 elections.

+ Conservatives wanted no tax increases. We received a commission that is tasked with spending cuts AND “tax reform.” Care to guess whose taxes will be “reformed” by that commission?

+ Conservatives wanted immediate and substantial cuts in spending. We received illusory cuts in 2013 appropriations, centered on defense and Medicare. After the Dems run tear-jerker commercials explaining that the GOP voted to kill Grandma and leave our country defenseless, the 2012 election is in play for them.

+ Conservatives wanted to defund Obamacare. We received a bill that continues all funding for Obamacare. The economic fate of the nation now hangs on the vote of Justice Kennedy in the inevitable Supreme Court review of the law’s constitutionality.

+ Conservatives wanted to defund Planned Genocide. Murder, Inc. remains fully funded.

+ Conservatives wanted to defund the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Pravda Amerika remains fully funded.

+ Conservatives wanted to defund the National Endowment for the Arts. The Nationalist Endowment for Anti-Christian Art remains fully funded.

+ Conservatives wanted to provide a short-term ceiling increase. We received an increase that gives Comrade Obama a pass until after the 2012 election.

+ Conservatives wanted entitlement reform. We received a commission that, at best, will give lip service to entitlement reform.

+ Conservatives wanted reform that would preserve America’s AAA bond rating. With a downgrade inevitable, care to guess which party will be blamed for the downgrade?

We can debate which political party is best positioned to issue talking points claiming victory. We can debate whether Comrade Obama won anything lasting. But it is difficult to see how Americans won anything at all.

I am reminded of the famous scene in Doctor Zhivago, where Yuri Zhivago returns from the World War to the spacious family home, only to find that the Communists have turned it into a collective. Learning that his family is now relegated to one room, he acidly tells the head of the collective that “Yes, it is much fairer now.”

 

He's smarter than even conservatives give him credit for

Hammer2008 (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 12:16AM EDT (link)

I may have to get back into following Glenn Beck after a 9-month hiatus from him…. He was/is into a lot more than many give credit for.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775′s eve…)


 

The new committee of 12

norinosnocinos Tuesday, August 2nd at 7:33AM EDT (link)

Keep an eye on the activity of the yet to be appointed 6 Dems and 6 GOP Congress members to come up with spending reductions. Should be interesting to see who is appointed and what they come up with.

Will Boehner and McConnell pick 6 Tea Partiers?

 

the end

lovesalldogs Tuesday, August 2nd at 3:14PM EDT (link)

I feel as though it’s the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the beginning of food lines and hoping to have bread on the table . This guy doesn’t care about this country only the power he can maintain thru and by all his liberal idiots and he also being the puppet of others to destroy this country.
None of us get a major retirement package after the first year NOR do we get or will we get a GREAT health insurance package as will O and the rest of all the crooks in Washington. I don’t care which side of the fence they are on R or D
I do not like parties for this reason.
It’s pitting people against each other and who gets the biggest kick back out of giving in. They are not there for US but to only fatten up their pocket books while the rest of us go down the toilet. SAD
SAD, SAD DAY for this COUNTRY the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
All this mess is the result of all of us being asleep for so long and believe we sent the right people there to represent all of us.
So many good things could have come out of this but not now possible not ever again.

Pamela J Solich

 

They can deceive the public as much as they want

Common_Cents (Diary) Tuesday, August 2nd at 7:43PM EDT (link)

but the financial markets will be the ultimate arbiter of the truth. Reality can bite.

Golly gee, who’s shocked that Fitch and Moody’s have upheld AAA, S&P to follow, you know the fix is in, the threats have been made.

“Fathom the hypocrisy of a Government
that requires every citizen to prove
they are insured…. but not everyone
must prove they are a citizen.”
-Ben Stein

“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”[especially in DC] – Friedrich Nietzsche