Today, the Washington Post's columnist Chris Cillizza makes a somewhat odd claim in his column "The Fix":
Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's (D) Senate campaign will announce $2.1 million raised in the third quarter, a campaign source tells The Fix, bringing it near parity with Rep. Roy Blunt's (R) more than $2 million raised. Outside groups are spending heavily for Blunt, but this remains arguably Democrats' best pickup opportunity.
"Spending heavily"? Strange. The numbers don't seem to back this claim. According to the Sunlight Foundation, "outside spending" on the two campaigns looks like this:
- Independent expenditures in support: $26,859.60
- Independent expenditures in opposition: $3,773,873.00
- Independent expenditures in support: $206,002.00
- Independent expenditures in opposition: $1,223,728.00
- Electioneering communications: $711,247.00 *
Interesting. The "heavy spending" seems to be by Robin Carnahan's cronies, not by Blunt supporters. In my book, $3,773,873 is quite a bit more than $1,223,728 (and that $3.7M should actually be closer to $5M, since it doesn't include the $600K spent by VoteVets and the $850K from the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club).
So what's the result of the big bucks being spent by Robin Carnahan's friends?
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Blunt picking up 51% of the vote, while Carnahan, Missouri’s current secretary of state, draws 43% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
That's a pretty poor investment, and it's not looking like too much of a "pickup opportunity" to me.
Seems like maybe Missourians can see past the lies being perpetrated by Ms. Carnahan's allies and are more concerned that Rubberstamp Robin will be pushing for more of the same failed policies of Barack Obama. According to Rasmussen:
Only seven percent (7%) of Missouri voters rate the U.S. economy as good, while 58% describe it as poor. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say economic conditions are getting better, but 49% say they are getting worse.
Blunt picks up 73% support from those who say the economy is worsening, while Carnahan is backed by 81% of those who say it's improving.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Missouri voters favor repeal of the national health care law, higher than the result found nationwide. Thirty-seven percent (37%) oppose repeal of the bill. Those numbers include 50% who Strongly Favor repeal and 28% who are Strongly Opposed.
Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters who Strongly Favor the law’s repeal back Blunt, while 85% of those who Strongly Oppose repeal support Carnahan.
Methinks that pretty much explains the situation in Missouri.
Sorry, Robin. Maybe your supporters should try investing in wind farms. Oh, wait....