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Could the Missouri Carnahan dynasty be at an end?

We\'re hoping so.

By: Bill S (Diary)  |  November 8th, 2010 at 08:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

It’s been a good week to be a Republican in Missouri.  Senator-elect Roy Blunt soundly defeated MO Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, beating her by 13 percentage points statewide, and winning every county in Missouri except St. Louis (city and county) and Jackson (Kansas City).  Republican candidates scored wins in most parts of the state except the Democrat strongholds mentioned above, where incumbents such as Congressmen Emanuel Cleaver and Lacy Clay won easily.  Even long-time Congressman Ike Skelton finally fell in deep-red west-central Missouri.

The one race that did not go the GOP’s way was MO-3, where Robin Carnahan’s brother Russ won a very close race against GOP challenger Ed Martin.  Martin lost by just around 4500 votes…and the Constitution and Libertarian party candidates pulled approximately 8800 votes combined.  Unfortunate (and while I’m tempted to go off on the possibility that 3rd parties were at least partially behind this GOP loss, I’ll leave that argument for another day)

But will Russ keep his seat?

In the 2010 census, Missouri may have had a big enough population decline (or poor response, at least) to lose a Congressional seat. Results will not be released until the end of December.  However, strategizing has already begun to determine which seat might be lost.  The GOP dominates the Missouri legislature, but Missouri Governor Jay Nixon is a Democrat – and can veto any redistricting plans he doesn’t like.  So what does that have to do with Russ Carnahan?

Carnahan’s seat appears to be one of the most vulnerable to loss in redistricting.  Other MO congressional districts are solid GOP or solid Democrat.  Carnahan’s may well be the only one “on the bubble.”  Elimination of Carnahan’s seat could give his precincts to Lacy Clay on the north side of the district, and to GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson on the south.   The other seat that could be up for grabs is that of newly-elected District 4 Rep-elect Vicki Hartzler, who defeated Skelton.  But it would seem unlikely that the Republican legislature would throw Hartzler under the bus so soon, which could leave Russ Carnahan holding the short straw.

It would be a happy day here in Missouri Republican-land if the last standing Carnahan were to bite the political dust.  We’ve had to endure a long line of Carnahans, starting with Robin’s grandfather A.J.C. Carnahan, who was the father of the late Mel Carnahan, the former MO Governor who died in a plane crash while campaigning for Senate in 2000.  Mel’s wife Jean took his place after Missourians elected the already-deceased Mel.  Later, Robin and Russ also entered politics and leave us where we are today.  (Oh, and we have Tom Carnahan, wind farmer and Obama “stimulus” money recipient).  With the possible elimination of Russ via redistricting and the eventual end of Robin’s term as SoS, it appears that political life of this Democrat dynasty may be drawing to a close.

Yes, it’s a glorious time here in GOP Red Missouri.  We’re thankful that Roy Blunt threw a perfect game, campaign-wise, and is now causing Missouri leftists to throw tantrums like this one.  Let’s hope we can piss them off even more when Russ is sent packing.

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  • america1st

    My understanding, from many miles away, is there are allegations of (amazingly, dimocrap) fraud and the results are subject to challenges & legal actions. Of course with princess robin as SoS, such will be deflected on the flimsiest – if any – excuse, but I didn’t think Mr. Martin and his supporters were quite ready to strike their colors?

  • wolfgang

    Here’s a reminder of the sorry saga of one Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), again.
    After being found bouncing his vehicle off the concrete barriers in downtown DC at 2:00 AM, in July, 2004, wearing only his shorts, Representative Kennedy blamed the incident on the promethazine cough syrup his doctor had recently prescribed for him and some alprazalalazam tablets he had also prescribed. No mention was made of the quart of scotch consumed. Like Father, Like Son. Representative Kennedy had also been involved in a traffic accident at his local CVS in downtown Providence a few weeks before. A visual comparison of the two involved drivers accident reports revealed Representative Kennedy’s to be barely an illegible scrawl compared to the neat as a pin report filled out by the other involved, DOD insured, driver. Representative Kennedy checked himself into a rehab clinic shortly after the DC incident and failed to make any campaign appearances in his own behalf that season. He was easily re elected, the loyal voters in Providence, RI readily recognizing a knight in shining armor when they saw one, even though when attired in a chain mail suit, Mr Kennedy needed propping up on all four sides.
    Democratic voters are undeniably astute voters, they just keep plowing the same furrow, day after day, after day.

  • http://www.FranBaker.com frankieb

    Both candidates my husband and I worked for – Mike Cierpiot and Will Kraus – won. We also donated to Roy Blunt and to Jacob Turk, who ran against Cleaver. All in all a good election day. Now we need to work on separating eastern Jackson County from Kansas City and creating our own new county.

  • chipbennett
  • http://wadingacross.wordpress.com logus

    I believe the third party spoiler claim is completely groundless and I detail it here. Thir party candidates have been pretty consistent in their turnout in MO3 over the last six years. Combine that with Ed’s strong showing compared to the Republican candidate for 2006 and Russ’ own hemorraghing of 50k votes between 2006 and 2010, and it’s clear that the third party candidates did not spoil the election. The district is just that blue as it currently stands. That said, I surmised that if MO3 were left alone in the census reapportionment, I could see it flipping red on its own in 2012.

    It’ll be interesting to see what Russ does if his district is dissolved. I heard one story that he might be considering getting on board with the Obama administration.

    As for Robin, the state gets to keep her around for another two years as State Secretary. One wonders whether she’ll try to run for re-election in 2012, a third term? If so, she’d probably lose if the Republican/conservative swell maintains itself.