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The Economics of Abortion

If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population

- Ebeneezer Scrooge, “A Christmas Carol”

In 2008, there were over 1.2 million unborn children murdered by abortionists in the United States.  Of course these babies, unlike those who chose to abort, had no “choice”, and they would probably rather NOT have died.  I wonder if the social liberal pro-abortion types have considered all of the consequences of taking away so many lives from this nation – over 52 million lives lost since 1973?

Admittedly, it is a rather cold, callous path of logic to analyze abortion in terms of economics, but let’s go there for a few moments.  Back in 1998, the late Larry Burkett, a highly-regarded author on Christian personal financial topics wrote “The George Bailey Effect:  Abortion-on-Demand and the Implications for America’s Economic Future“.  Burkett examined abortion not from the moral perspective, but its impact on the economics of the United States.  He makes a profound point:

This growing parity between the old and the young is at the heart of the demographic challenges that face Medicare and Social Security. Incredible as it may seem,by the time the peak of the baby boom generation reaches retirement age, the number of abortions since the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision will equal the number of births in the baby boom. “If only one-third of those who have been aborted were available to start work on their 18th birthday,” speculated USA Today, “the demise of Social Security would be put off for decades.”

Indeed, it is largely because of abortion-on-demand that by the year 2030 the ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries will be reduced to only 2-to-1, according to a projection from the Social Security Board of Trustees. In other words, two workers will be supporting one retiree. (When the program began in the 1930s, 42 workers supported each retiree.)

The murder of millions of babies since Roe has had a profound impact on the demographics of the United States.  As a result of removing that staggering number of lives, the population – and tax base – are far smaller.  If we assume a fairly steady rate of abortions since the last year of reporting (2008), then there have been almost 56M aborted babies in this country – nearly the population of California and Texas combined.  Given an average federal tax revenue of approximately $8500/citizen, and assuming that those aborted between 1975 and 1990 (approx 23,782,000 lives, based on Guttermacher estimates) would now be productive taxpayers, the U.S. economy is losing roughly $202 billion per year in tax payments as of 2012.

Now my math is fairly poor, but Mr. Burkett showed a much more exhaustive numerical analysis of the economic impact of abortion, shown in this chart (I’m afraid you’ll need to click the image to read it):

Cost of Roe v Wade

Conservatives have often referred to Social Security as a “Ponzi Scheme” – a money-making scheme that only succeeds when more and more people are participating in it with time.  And such it is with Social Security.  Usually, the payoff from such a scheme is limited because of the questionable nature of the investment.  However, in this case, the removal of millions of taxpayers from the face of the earth – those who would have become contributors – has undoubtedly contributed to the entitlement mess in which we find ourselves today.

We are currently in a struggle with the Leftists over a massive budget deficit triggered by too much spending and too little income.  Conservatives are rightfully pressing for big reductions in government outlays, as we would not be in this situation had Barack Obama not perpetrated the most massive spending spree in the history of the United States.  Allow me to digress for a moment and again remind you of this:

Note, however, that within this digression is a connection to Burkett’s paper.  In this 1998 paper, he states:

State governments also will face fiscal challenges. A study by the state controller in California projects that with the retirement of the baby boom generation will come a significant reduction in state revenues. “In the next two decades,we can expect to see new [financial] pressures placed on . . . public services,” warns California Controller Kathleen Connell.“The challenge for state policy-makers is to begin planning for the time when the revenues may not be there, perhaps even restructuring our tax system to accommodate the changed demographics.”

This is an eerily prescient statement about the economies of state and local governments.  He also includes a graph (see the original paper to view it) that shows a staggering increase in the national debt, beginning right around now.  Sound familiar?  Another prediction come true:

I believe the major reason social researchers are projecting a notable shortage of “human capital” in the 21st century is due to the large numbers of people lost to abortion. According the Hudson Institute’s Workforce 2020 report, for example, slow population growth, combined with the retirement of many baby boomers from the workforce, is likely to create “a tight labor pool, particularly for high skilled jobs.”

Indeed, if current trends continue, “many high-skilled manufacturing and service jobs will go begging in the U.S.” These jobs will not simply go unfilled, however, but likely they will be exported to other nations, resulting in a steady erosion of U.S. economic competitiveness.

Remember, this was written several years prior to the start of the current trend of offshoring of jobs to cheap labor markets.

Is all of this a cold, heartless analysis?  Perhaps.  But it’s little different from the comparison that numerous social liberals have made regarding the tax “benefits” of illegal aliens.  According to the Left, illegal aliens

…contribute to the U.S. economy through their investments and consumption of goods and services; filling of millions of essential worker positions resulting in subsidiary job creation, increased productivity and lower costs of goods and services; and unrequited contributions to Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance programs

So if leftists believe that we should support illegal immigration because of its positive impact on revenues, then they should be equally enthusiastic about stopping abortion because of its positive impact on revenues, right?  Right?

Abortion is wrong.  It is immoral.  It is murder.  The economic argument here is minor compared to the sheer evil and immorality of exterminating unwanted children.  As Larry Burkett states (as he extends his analogy with “It’s a Wonderful Life”:

…abortion is not simply a matter of private conscience,but of public concern. Abortion-on-demand has effects that are rippling throughout our society and could even threaten our future liberties.

This is why abortion, even if all moral arguments are totally discounted, cannot be ignored in framing public policy. Simply writing off abortion as a “moral” or a “religious” issue is a short-sighted approach that fails to reckon its economic and demographic consequences.

We can’t undo the past, of course. We can’t undo the fact that we have had 35 million George Baileys, people never born, people whose lives were never allowed to touch other lives. Indeed they have left an “awful hole.” But for the sake of our nation’s economic future and national security, as well as its moral character, we must resolve to promote from this time forward an ethic that is pro-family and pro-children. Only then can America continue to have a wonderful life.

The United States is not having a particularly “wonderful life” right now.  The nation has been hijacked by those with policies and values that have been proven wrong, and the social Left’s flagrant disregard for life is “paying off” in the gradual erosion of the nation’s economy and its morality.  Abortion must stop, for the sake of the health and welfare of those unborn children – and the nation.  It’s time to stop treating the unborn as “surplus population.”

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COMMENTS

  • chrysostom15

    Thanks for the well written and well thought analysis

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    That Freakonomics piece about how abortion knocked down the US crime rate still makes me shudder when I read it. It’s like arguing that if I shot all the drivers I don’t like w/ a .50 Cal, my morning commute would be easier and less stressful.

  • Tbone

    is that Liberals have no more understanding of economics than they do of morality.

  • YnotNOW

    And therefore are willing to undergo any hardship (economic or otherwise) to reduce the population. It is a fundamentally anti-human philosophy, and the moral underpinning of the abortion-on-demand lobby.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    and then egregiously behave in a manner that supports their mendacious contention. See Gore, Al, Hypocrit. I’ll believe him on overpopulation when he makes like Abraham in Genesis and is totally ready to strap one of his four to the altar and take out his knife.

  • Bill S

    I didn’t figure on convincing them of anything…

  • Bill S

    I thought about taking that path as well, but figured I’d just avoid that highlighting their arguments…

  • http://christopherrenner.blogspot.com Christopher Renner

    by John Lott, for example.

    Canada’s homicide rate showed the same trends as the U.S. over the period where the Freakonomics authors focused, though they still had large restrictions on abortions until 1988.

    A more general point about Freakonomics – it’s written to titillate the reader with “scientific” confirmation of things they already “know” are true, as opposed to disproving conventional wisdom with airtight logic. I’ve yet to ever find a serious economist who endorses the book.

  • http://christopherrenner.blogspot.com Christopher Renner

    the economic argument is a great way of giving them a cognitive dissonance headache – “How are we supposed to pay for your beloved welfare state? All the future population’s been aborted!”

  • Bill S

    .

  • http://www.twitter.com/AWG9_yoyo yoyo

    “Abraham” and “Genesis” are as foreign concepts to Al Gore and the overpop folks as “Republic” and “Liberty” are.

    “English” doesn’t get through to them. “Idiocy” does. I don’t know how to speak “Idiocy.”

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Chakra Boy still doesn’t get “Abraham”, “Genesis”, or even the crazy lyrics Peter Gabriel sometimes wrote as a solo artist.

  • acat

    or others to whom the religious arguments fail or need reinforcements. (liberal Catholics for instance)

    Thank you for posting this, Bill. A useful arrow to have around.

    Mew

  • polarglen

    The demographics also show that by mid-century, minorities will be the majority in this country.

  • danielcarrey

    This posting makes no sense from an economics perspective. The size and debt of any government is directly linked to the population that it governs. That $202 billion in tax revenue would be even further offset by the increased government spending to support the needs of a higher population.

  • YnotNOW

    The demographics of that population (particularly aging retirees on SS and Medicare; compared to the tax-paying working-age population) make a HUGE difference in the net revenue-vs-expenditure equation.

  • Bill S

    And that is why the tie-in to the Social Security Ponzi scheme. Those that would have been born since around 1975 or so woud be approaching their prime earning years, consuming little in the way of SS or Medicare but contributing greatly via taxes.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Every ‘choice’ has a consequence. There is just no getting past it.

  • grandma

    A huge segment of the population of post-abortive men and women exhibit unsustainable spending patterns. Debt becomes a way of life for many of them, and personal responsibility goes out the window for the unhealed. Huge credit card bills, bankruptcy, disability for emotional reasons, etc. are prominent in that population. Depression associated with the abortion(s) and/or abuse is generally the culprit.

    Not everyone who is depressed is post-abortive nor is everyone who is post-abortive, depressed.

  • grandma

    Sorry, I forgot to say how pleased I am to see this article and to see it presented as eloquently as you did.

    Us veterans of the pro-life struggle have, for years, recognized the potential for deleterious effects of abortion on Soc. Sec.

  • techartlead

    By legalizing immigration the Libs hope to have thier cake and eat it too

  • oneconservative

    From a pure economic-only impact, abortion has been devastating. From a moral standpoint, it is disgusting. May God have mercy on our country.

  • gregghandle

    We also have to remember the cost of unwanted babies on society. How much in welfare and foster care would we have had to spend on these children if they were born?

  • Bill S

    because Burkett covers that. Net: the assumption that those that are aborted are without worth and would otherwise be on welfare, Medicaid, etc, is fallacious.

    Furthermore, those babies that have been aborted would most likely go up for adoption if truly “unwanted”. There is a very large demand for adoptions right now, and adoptive parents are often forced to look overseas. The adoption “cycle time” would no doubt be greatly reduced and those unwanted babies would be (and are) quite “wanted”.

  • acrucesalus

    moment and realized that the lack of workers and their economic output is only one consequence of abortion on demand. It is part of the reason they want all the illegals to be given amnesty.
    The blame for the huge number of abortions should be placed directly on the feminist movement and the liberals. They are the ones who conjured up the phony “choice” and “right to privacy” and “legal but rare” arguments. They created the monstrous movement of slaughtering the innocent and, unfortunately, women cave in to their own stupidity and buy the arguments, on a daily basis.
    And to gregghandle: You write about the economic costs of unwanted babies so blithely. There are plenty of families out there that want babies and cannot conceive. What is under estimated is what the huge number of women who aborted their babies go through post abortion. The mental and emotional anguish is overwhelming once the full impact of what they have done hits home. And then there are the health related issues for post abortion women, breast cancer being only one of them. Those are the issues that incur huge costs and are a direct result of abortion.

  • runner12

    Abortion is not only morally wrong, but has a tremendous negative impact on society both economically and sociologically.

  • gmurnane

    “Now my math is fairly poor, but Mr. Burkett showed a much more
    exhaustive numerical analysis of the economic impact of abortion, shown
    in this chart (I’m afraid you’ll need to click the image to read it):”

    I recently came accross this article on google, and find that the chart it presents as economic analysis is lacking nuance and precision. It appears to make 3 key assuptions that are false in calculating the additional revenues the government would have if abortion were never performed. Firstly, that the government would not spend more because of the additional citizens around, secondly, that the productivity of workers is static regardless of how many workers there are (it tends to go down, because of a reduced capital to labor ratio) and finally that the additional population would preform at the economic average. Abortion is more frequent among poor, badly educated parents, whose children tend to also grow up to be poor, and badly educated, and thus pay lower taxes, and have higher costs than average.

    While the moral arguments against both legal and illegal abortion are strong, the economic argument against abortion must be a comparison of realistic economic costs to the realistic economicy benefits. Programs that encourage parents to keep their children rather than having abortions have a stronger economic position than preventing abortion itself does, and can have broad, positive effects. Among these are programs to encourage becoming and staying married, to make it easier and more attractive to keep children in school, to provide for the adequate nutrition and health care of young and school age children, and to support single mothers facing the balance between work, school, and family, all of which by my understanding fall into the Christian values of supporting one another, relieving the burden of poverty, and promoting happy, full, safe lives.