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Romney and Bachmann lead in Iowa

By: Dan Spencer (Diary)  |  June 26th, 2011 at 10:15 AM  | 

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Bachmann and Romney lead in the first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican 2012 presidential field:

  • Romney 23%
  • Bachmann 22%
  • Cain 10%
  • Gingrich 7%
  • Paul 7%
  • Pawlenty 6%
  • Huntsman 2%

Bachmann and Romney gained momentum from their strong performances during the June 13, Republican Presidential Debate in New Hampshire.

There are still six months before the February 6, 2012 Iowa Caucuses, but two things are clear.

The Iowa Poll results are great news for TEA Party favorite Michele Bachmann. She will build on her momentum as she launches her presidential campaign today with a tour of Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Pawlenty’s sixth place finish is disappointing to say the least. Not nearly good enough considering Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired a first rate team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa.

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  • student14

    The mere fact that Romney is leading in that poll speaks to the volume of how many individuals were actually asked to take that survey.

    I like Bachmann, but I refuse to support anyone without a public executive experience and is a principled conservative. Bachmann is a conservative, but has zero executive, military, and foreign policy experience. She’s never balanced a budget or vetoed bills, or even passed a bill…

    When asked why she qualifies, she pretty much answers: – I am a fighter, raised 5 kids and 23 foster kids, ran a successful business with the husband and am a conservative…

    Sorry that doesn’t qualify you to lead the free world.

    • acat

      And, in Iowa at least, he’s not getting traction.

      Fortunately, Iowa has sucked as a chooser-of-the-nominee for some time now, and we’re still early days in terms of the squishy middle “tuning in”.

      What concerns this cat are Romney’s huge numbers – I may have to start practicing my “Romney’s a good candidate” lines. Ugh.

      Mew

    • Dan Spencer

      According to the Register, the poll is based on interviews with 1,831 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 400 said they would definitely or probably participate in the February 2012 Republican caucuses. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone. The full sample of 1,831 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 400 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

    • Michael Dugas

      Will you vote for her?

    • crusty

      You speak with such certainty here. I have not decided on a candidate to support as yet except to say no to Huntsman or Romney. I accept either would be better than what we have, so would Snoopy. To say Bachmann has no executive experience is parsing words. It is true she has not held a Governor’s office but she has successfully run a business and has signed paychecks. To dismiss that as you did is disingenuous. Even without holding a political executive office or being in the military she is light years above the pretender in chief who after nearly three years on the job training has learned nothing and demonstrated he has no concept of any of these issues.

      • unclefred

        and prior to Godfather’s Pizza had years of successful business executive experience. Running a government bureaucracy is unlike, and to my mind much more difficult than, running the bureaucracy of the largest private company. Cain has by far the most business executive experience, and I have concerns about his ability to run the federal government.

        Compared to Cain, Bachmann, who as I understand it, ran a small businesses, has no “executive” experience. While I too value the fact that she had to meet a payroll, the skills to manage a large organization are very different from those required by a small business.

        Using Obama’s utter lack of experience is a red herring, he is after all a total failure as president, being better qualified than he does not qualify someone to run a lemonade stand.

        I like a lot of what Bachmann has to say and respect her drive and intelligence, but I have deep seated doubts about her ability to step into what is, in the best of times, unarguably the most difficult executive position in the world.

        • lineholder

          through the primaries at least. And yeah, all the folks who want to try to tell me why he isn’t what our nation needs right now…go ahead, because I’ve already gone through every argument you can think of in my own mind and I’m choosing to support him all the same.

          Why? Because of our economy. Because the greater majority of people we elect into office have political science and/or legal backgrounds, not business/economic backgrounds. Because we can’t just go on and on expecting people who have little experience and/or limited knowledge on business/economic factors to exercise good judgment on business/economic issues. Because we need a certain amount of the private sector influence that emphasizes productivity and efficiency put into practice in our government. Because we need someone who understands from practical experience how the private sector works and what it takes to generates jobs in the private sector on a day to day basis. Because we need someone who will stand on the conservative side of economic issues.

          Need more reasons, I’ve got ‘em, because the reasons I’ve stated above are just the tip of the iceberg.

          • unclefred

            Because of his lack of experience running any type of government, his choice for VP and high level staff will be far more critical to his success than say a former governor.

            He needs to be assembling that kind of staff now. Much as W did with regard to foreign policy advisors in 1999-2000. He needs to do this for two reasons, first he’ll be able to develop more specific proposals for some of the questions that he now can only answer in generalities, second simply attracting that staff will go along way to reducing these kinds of concerns.

            He’d make an awesome VP, to bring all that business expertise to an administration.

        • student14

          I have great respect for Cain’s executive experience. I love that guy, but it’s bitter sweet that he’s never held a public executive office before. I really like the fact that he’s not a politician, but I would be prefer that he’s at least a governor first.

          Would I vote for Bachmann if she’s the nominee? let’s hope I don’t have to. Don’t want to have another president learning on the job.

          To crusty, I am certain because those are the facts. Unless Bachmann is going to be a governor or a CEO before running, she doesn’t have the executive experience needed. Running a small business doesn’t equate to running a state or a nation.

          And of course, Becker can’t seem to leave a comment on a thread without dumping on Palin….seriously dude, get treated for PDS and if you can muster it, watch ‘The Undefeated.’

          • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

            Who let you out of the basement?

    • David123

      had before 1860. She also has as much executive experience as Harry S. Truman did before 1945. Lincoln was one of our best, if not our best, presidents. Harry S. Truman was an above average president.

      Michele Bachman, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty all have more formal education than either Lincoln or Truman did.

      Michele Bachman, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty are far better than Mitt Romney who is inconsistent, and even better than Barack Hussein Obama who is consistently wrong.

      • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

        In the world of meaningless comparisons, yours certainly rises to the top.

        There is no comparison between the role of government in 1860 or in 1948 with that role today.

        And then there’s simply the outrageous: criticizing Romney for inconsistency and giving Ste. Sarah a pass. At least he finished out his one term and actually did some things that could be arguably considered “conservative” – RomneyCare not being one of them. She ran out the back door when the heat got turned up, didn’t request a ruling from her AG that her actions were consistent with her office and we’ve seen most of her “signature” legislation either swept out with the dust or about to be modified into unrecognizable form. Oh, and then there’s the fact that she budgeted and spent more money than any previous administration and her budget went up both years she was in office.

        Go back down in the basement and light a candle Shriner™.

        • Wayne

          mention RomneyCare because that alone sticks out for me as one of the key issues about anyone pursuing higher office. They must understand the true role that government should take in our lives. And ideologically, Romney, if truly a conservative, would have never come up with and/or supported such an unsustainable scheme. And scheme is precisely what big healthcare and government is all about.

          Stop letting big government, big PHARMA, Insurance Corporations and other medical industry corporations collude is the first step to affordable healthcare. The workers of this country would be more than willing to pay for their health insurance if they actually had a job they believe would be around for a while.

          I should stop before this rant gets out of control…. as it’s already off point…

          • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

            at all. He’s never met a problem that government couldn’t solve.

        • azaeroprof

          She ran out the back door when the heat got turned up, didn?t request a ruling from her AG that her actions were consistent with her office and we?ve seen most of her ?signature? legislation either swept out with the dust or about to be modified into unrecognizable form. Oh, and then there?s the fact that she budgeted and spent more money than any previous administration and her budget went up both years she was in office.

          Seriously, you’re going to wear out your ‘Ctl’ and ‘V’ keys!

          :)

          • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

            idiots like David around.

          • azaeroprof

            in pointing out the difference between the size of government in 1860 vs 2011. (I would mention, though, that nothing David said was incorrect, just that it may need lead to the same conclusion that he perhaps means to imply.)

            My point was that his post contained 4 sentences; 2 were about Bachmann specifically and the other 2 lumped Bachmann, Palin and Pawlenty together. The fact that your response was 90% a slam on Palin says more about you than about david.

            Not to mention the fact that I think I’ve read that exact anti-Palin paragraph verbatim numerous times before. That was the point of my poke about Ctl-V.

          • azaeroprof

            “may NOT lead”

        • David123

          Abraham Lincoln and Harry S Truman met those challenges because they were men of good character and of traditional patriotic American values, not because of prior “executive experience”.

          Obama is not doing well because of his leftist ideology. If he had had significant private sector experience, he might well have realized that leftist ideology is flawed, so in that sense lack of executive experience hurt him. However, we should not hold lack of executive experience against a Republican candidate who is of good character and holds a pro-American, pro-limited government, pro-capitalism ideology.

          To the extent that Michele Bachman is of good character and already knows that capitalism and limited government work, she doesn’t need executive experience. She will do just fine as our next president – lightyears better than Obama and Clinton, and somewhat better than Bush. I favor Michele Bachman over Mitt Romney, because Michele Bachman is consistently for smaller, limited, less intrusive government. Also, Mitt Romney will be a weaker candidate than most other potential Republican candidates because he won’t be able to hit Obama as hard on Obamacare and death panels.

          Mitt Romney has been inconsistent on abortion, gun-control, global warming and other issues.
          http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/270400/who-mitt-romney-deroy-murdock

          BTW, I don’t want to light a candle – I want to turn on an incandescent light like God and Edison intended.

    • outragedamerican

      You are corret…Training on the job is toooooooo costly!

    • Bill S

      The thing to look at is the margin of error. But even taking that into account, it is unlikely that anyone but Romney or Bachmann lead in Iowa. Their margin over the next person (Cain) is well within the MOE.

      Name recognition dominates polling this early in the season. Romney has it. The others don’t.

  • smitch61

    I cannot muster up any feelings either way.

  • Wayne

    Bachmann’s presence will give Romney the signal that he must appeal to “Tea Party” constituents (like it or not) and his rhetoric will begin to sound more like hers. Those who want a true constitutional conservative should be able to deduce that Romney does not pass the litmus test in that regard.

    Obama’s presidency morphed into an accelerated version of European style socialism that shocked most Americans and resulted in the Tea Party movement sprouted out of nowhere.

    If nothing else it would be interesting to see if a true representative of the Constitution, if elected, can change the direction that Washington’s political elite have taken us (intentionally or not). My guess is, not likely.

    • concap

      the words Constitutional Conservative, making it?s way in to RS by someone other than myself.

      Like it or not, only a true Constitutional Conservative agenda will save the U.S., not a Fiscal or Social on it’s own.

    • carolina

      more conservative.
      I’m not sure there are enough ‘constitutional conservative’ voters to get Bachmann elected. I would like to think that there is a loud minority of progressives and a quiet majority of solid conservatives. 2008 tells me that this is not true.
      Bachmann does seem to connect with the voters as well as/ better than any of the other current candidates. I like the specific facts she sprinkles throughout her speeches/interviews. She doesn’t come across as a ‘polished politician’ with their usual general promises (which few believe from any of them now). She may be the right person for this time.

  • florida772

    Mitt in the lead

    • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

      As people start to drop, he won’t be picking up much support.

      Cain voters for Romney???? Doubt it.
      Gingrich voters? Maybe.
      Pawlenty voters? Not.

      Frankly, the most interesting struggle will be between WarmingMittens and Huntsman for the “center”. Hopefully they’ll damage one another enough to get them out reasonably early.

      • rightwingmom52

        I’ll keep trying to spread the word that he isn’t conservative and sway them to other candidates. Hopefully, he’ll lose more of his current supporters than any gains he might pick up from others.

      • red_oakster

        If the race comes down to Bachmann and Romney, Romney will enjoy a big advantage in states like Florida and Ohio, let alone California, New York, and New Jersey. Just like McCain rolled up the score against Huckabee by winning in the purple and blue states, Romney would do the same thing against Bachmann. She’s the one who has more of a ceiling.

        Bachmann becoming the sole Romney alternative is Romney’s dream scenario, I think. As I have said in some earlier discussions, I expect Romney to pour in resources to help Bachmann at Ames in order to wipe out Pawlenty and discourage Perry from entering.

  • jarrod21

    I guess I really want Perry to run, then. I have no interest in Romney (although I donated to him after Fred dropped out in ’08), Bachmann, or a certain individual who isn’t listed but would probably do quite well on an Iowa straw poll.

    I’ll happily vote for whoever is the nominee, because getting rid of Obama is job one, but I’m not particularly jazzed about this.

  • dajeeps

    I haven’t decided who I will be supporting yet. I have far less funds than I did three years ago so am sitting on the fence until the race becomes more in focus. Tim Pawlenty almost had me when he coined the phrase “ObomneyCare” because anyone who is willing to go after that poser and knock him down early is worth the money. But he went back on it and doesn’t really have any more wow-power than any of the others – so the search continues…

  • Change Jar Conservative

    I have to admit that New Hampshire debate and some things I’ve subsequenty read about Bachmann have made me re-think how I feel about her.

    She moved from my “no way” (because of lack of governership experience) to my “let me think about it list.”

    I like the idea of an unapologetic conservative who even from her start in some school issues could inspire people to go out there and fight.

    While I’d love a governor, I think that having a conservative President who was filling to fight would beat having a former governor who thinks government is the answer (Romney).

    • Change Jar Conservative

      Erick has pointed to Cain as this year’s Huckabee, but I’m starting to think it will be Michelle.

    • BA Cyclone

      I’ve been very much in Cain’s camp since his speech at CPAC early this year. But he has really failed to go much farther in depth, and if anything the campaign structure in general seems to be rather haphazard. I still like his “outsider” angle, business experience, leadership experience.

      Meanwhile I wasn’t sure how serious Bachmann truly was, nor was I convinced of her depth of knowledge or resolve on these larger issues. I know she is strong on conservatism and Tea Party ideals…but sometimes she still comes off as a little bit populist.

      However the debate performance plus subsequent stops have really made my thinking come around to her. I am >this< close to switching my preference to Bachmann. Hopefully I can find a copy on Youtube of her speech at RightOnline as what Erick described was exactly what I want to hear from "my candidate" and I'd like to hear/see it for myself.

      We went to her campaign stop last night in Waterloo and even got to meet her — I think she is the REAL deal and frankly I think she will be hard to beat if she does the hard work of campaigning vigorously in the early states.

      I think she has a few myths to disspell but I think she can do that.

  • averagevoterdotcom

    Romney likely to win (and take FL).

    Bachman (BTO) would be great VP pick.

    The boys better not underestimate Bachmann.

    Pawlenty and Newt are done.

    Cain will fizzle – not 3-dimensional enough.

    Cain idealists need to pick another horse.

    Perry in would turn this into a war.

  • dtr1

    Someone tweeted that a Romney/Bachman ticket could be
    know as Fake /Flake.