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Blowing up the Romney vs. Obama dead heat meme

By: Dan Spencer (Diary)  |  July 14th, 2012 at 02:17 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Friday I spoke with WBYZ 94.5 Radio’s Wild Bill McKubby about my recent article, “Romney extends lead among Independents to 14 percent.”

During the interview we blow up mainstream media’s meme that the presidential race tied. We also take   Obama to task for his $trillion deficits, his 50% increase in the national debt and his incessant Pinocchio campaign falsehoods.

You can listen to the interview here:

As of July 6, 2012, the national debt was $15,879,528,608,975.11 ($15.9 trillion). It was $10,626,877,048,913.08 ($10.6 trillion) when Obama became president. That’s a $5.3 trillion, or 50 percent, increase in less than four years. On July 3, 2008, Presidential candidate Obama said that adding $4 trillion in debt was “irresponsible” and “unpatriotic.” President-elect Obama warned us when he predicted “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come.” And President Obama promised to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term not once but at least five times.

Thanks to Wild Bill for having me on the show.

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COMMENTS

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  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    a likely blow out, of course anything could happen in five months. I look for an October surprise of some type.

    • acat

      The Left is so close to victory .. to lose it all is getting unthinkable for ‘em. I am concerned….

      Mew

      • westcoastpatriette

        so they are so decimated they cannot recover for another hundred years or so.

        • acat

          We stopped at the third in 2000, we stopped at the 2nd in Wisconsin.

          This cat would prefer that we not get to the 4th box …but I can no longer see too many alternatives. The Left appear completely unwilling to accept “No” for an answer…

          Mew

          Soap box
          Ballot box
          Jury box
          Ammunition box.

          • kipling

            When Lenin lost one of the first elections after the revolution, he simply said it did not matter because the “right people” voted for him. He disregarded the will of the people and pushed the revolution any way.

            Mr. Obama and the Democrats do not obey the will of the people or even the rule of law. We are closer to that 4th box than we have been in a long time. Roberts and the third box failed us with Obamacare. The Left smells victory and will not go quietly into that good night. Instead they will rage and use the case to their advantage.

          • acat

            The court didn’t find the way I’d hoped, but .. there are some glints of silver in the stormclouds.

            Roberts effectively took away one goad from Obama – there’s no way to use “we must re-pass health care” or “they unfairly destroyed our victory” as campaign themes…. which is a painfully narrow good, I agree.

            Much as I dislike this result, Roberts’ view of the court as non-savior – returning responsibility to save the republic to We The People – appears, to this cat, to be the better of the available options. Certainly better than placing the remarkably unaccountable Judicial branch above the other two.. I’m thinking more of Ben Franklin’s quote … “A republic, if you can keep it”… and I suspect Roberts was as well.

            Once again, there is no cavalry, we’re going to have to save ourselves .. if we can.

            Mew

          • westcoastpatriette

            That’s why I used the word decimate. I still believe we are the huge majority and the left just seems more ominous right now because they have a louder bullhorn. But, we still outnumber them and hopefully, enough sleepers are scared enough to get off their butts and join our team for the final push. Otherwise, we will find ourselves resorting to the fourth box.

          • ww2nd95

            I do not foresee the 4th box coming to bare. No way we’ll come to anything like that.. Come on Acat, I honestly agree with most of what you say, but this “4th box” stuff is to much.and shouldn’t even be considered.

          • acat

            This year, I’m not so sure…

            The frustration and anger coming from the Left – the #OWS brigades, etc. is significantly higher than it’s been in a long, long time …

            Mew

        • demsaresatanic

          I doubt that we have the same method in mind but we agree upon the desired result.

    • mikeymike143

      but he will still lose big in november.

      • commonsenseobserver

        Not just Iran, but probably also Syria, China, cooking the books to claim a smaller deficit, fiddling with the unemployment figures to produce 400K jobs, etc.

      • Dave_A

        Because bombing Iran without a corresponding land-invasion will result in minimal to no damage to Iran’s nuke program, and will motivate them to test as soon as they possibly can cobble something together…

        Iran has built their nuke program to be bomber-proof, because after watching Iraq in the 90s, they EXPECTED to be attacked from the air…

        Facilities are either hardened to resist ‘bunker buster’ weapons, or split up and dispersed through the countryside to make it logistically impossible to hit them all…

        Now, the Air Force has a new ‘massive’ penetrating bomb that might just crack the hardened facilities…

        But in the end, the only way to be sure is to get men on the ground looking for the stuff & verifying destruction….

        If we do it Lybia style, we’ll just waste ordnance and make noise… The Iranian program will continue as if nothing happened, but with new resolve…

      • renl57

        This election could be close, in which case turnout will be decisive.

        Obama’s not going to anger his lefty peacenik/anti-Israel/environmentalist base by bombing Iran. He needs them to turn out heavily in November. (Look how he’s pandered to them so far, with the cancelling of the Keystone XL pipeline and the promises of deep unilateral cuts in America’s nuclear deterrent.)

        • ww2nd95

          I think it will covert. Just bombing them alone wouldn’t be effective, but using Seal Team 6 and/or other various assets, could be effective.

          Maybe bomb them at first, use the mess and chaos to our advantage, send in Seal Team 6, under-covers into the facility, take care of business.

      • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

        I speculated as much about two months ago.

        • joekat

          Soon the pollsters will switch to only canvassing likely voters which I believe will tilt the numbers toward Romney by a couple of points. That might be enough for him to grab the lead and gain momentum.

  • aesthete

    when Obama loses by a decisive margin.

    • troublingtimes

      I have to admit, all this polling stuff gets to me. Even though I KNOW I should take them with a grain of salt, the media really does know how to grind the message in that Romney has no chance or that it is sooooo close. That’s why I appreciated Dan’s diary.

      I do think the political landscape is not what we are being dished out to believe. I look to what happened in Wisconsin when I get really on edge.

      This just cannot happen a second time! This is our last chance. I hate all the bribes/goodies being put out there to specific groups in the 11th hour…and hope people are smart enough to see it for what it is, or that there are enough of us by sheer will that just refuse to let this happen again and we swamp the polls!

      • ohiohistorian

        We need to do a lot of prep for that poll. Make sure that the votes that are cast are cast by legal voters.

        • troublingtimes

          In NO way can we let our guard down, but I have a little more confidence that the cheating aspect will not be as big of a factor this go-around.

          In this regard, I do think Republicans learned a few things and did get to work on making this aspect harder to accomplish. I also think the Dem cheaters don’t have the massive groundgame in place like they used to…and who among us think Repubs/conservatives are going to put up with the cheating/intimidation junk again? I think all will be watched like hawks and all reported by concerned citizens if anything is even suspected.

          We’ve had enough! No more missing ballots stuck in cars or Minnie Mouse showing up to vote. Wisconsin gave me a little hope in this regard. I’m sure they tried to cheat to pull it off! Scratch the word “hope” — pretty sick of that word, folks.

          Of course, I must admit I feel a whole lot better where there are Republican Secretaries of State and Republican governors.

      • poorwilber

        If so, what troubles me next is how the Republicans will govern.

        A repeat performance of GWB administration will destroy the future ambitions of the GoP. A third party will coalesce, and 2016 will be 1994 all over again.

        Conservatism is the only way forward, and Establishment lip service while governing in the Democrat-lite mode on the domestic front, and using a neocon interventionalism foriegn policy …..will not be tolerated.

        • troublingtimes

          We, The People, won’t be having any of it. It is time to brave up and get it right. No more quishy stuff, and we need to make our voices heard. Some of them are there based on conviction and principles, and some of them just want their safe jobs and don’t seem to care or “get” this needs to be a dramatic lurch.. Well, their jobs aren’t safe, and they need to realize it.

          Last chance. You’re right.

  • codenametimna

    The polls are being skewed by liberal pollsters who are willing to do anything (legal or otherwise in my opinion) to ensure that Obama wins reelection. It’s blatantly obvious to me anyway. First of all, the polls are often skewed by an over-sampling of Democrats vs Republicans. When a poll is highly favored toward the Democratic Party you obviously get skewed results in the aftermath.

    These polls don’t mean a hill of beans because like I said, most of them are conducted by liberal demagogues who are intentionally skewering the polls in order to make Obama appear more popular than he really is. Just like the Lamestream media is doing by refusing to talk about Obama’s reprehensible policies that are destroying the economy and bankrupting the country. Albeit some in the drive by media are actually starting to come to their senses and report the news more accurately. But it is miniscule in comparison to the multitude of horrendous policies and gangster style politics that this president and his socialist administration engage in on a daily basis. Fox News and online conservative blogs are the only ones doing due diligence in the face of evil. Yeah that’s right. Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an evil empire. I’m calling the Obama administration an evil, socialistic, empirical presidency that is ruining the economy, polarizing the American people and bankrupting the nation even as we speak. Get used to it folks. Four more years of Obama will result in much of the same thing, only much much worse most likely. That’s because Obama has NO intention of changing his dastardly socialistic ways. Obama wants to “transform” America not change America for the better. He made that blatantly clear on the campaign trail in 2008. It is his way or the highway and in reality he will continue implementing his evil socialistic agenda if he’s reelected. That’s a given. Which makes it that much more important to defeat Obama in November to insure he never gets reelected.

    I will say this though. Mitt Romney needs to get off his duff and put it in overdrive or else the Obama machine will grind him to pieces like so much hamburger. Romney needs to remember his dogged days running the winter Olympics while working 112 hour work weeks. I realize he’s 65 years old now, but if he really wants to win in November, he better step up to the plate and give it that ‘ole college try once again or he will likely be eating Obama’s dust in the end.

    Romney is basically letting Obama set the tone in the campaign. Romney is constantly playing defense to Obama’s ruthless offense. Mitt needs to turn the tables and go on the OFFENSE really soon or those ads that the Obama campaign is releasing every day – in a relentless barrage of negativity – will start to take its toll on the Romney campaign and they may never recover from it. Romney seems to be constantly defending himself against Obama’s relentless (and mostly false) accusations and cutthroat tactics. And it seems to be working out to Obama’s advantage. Obama is spending millions and millions of dollars on negative ads in swing states in order to kill the baby in the crib before it can ever start walking as Fred Thompson stated so bluntly. Which is another way of saying the Obama machine wants to finish off Mitt Romney before he wises up and goes on the offense to attack Obama directly. Which the Romney campaign needs to do if they ever want to see the light at the end of the tunnel and a win in November.

    Mitt Romney needs to set the tone and he needs to get out into the public square much more often and in a much more forceful manner in order to effectively take his message to the American people with conviction. In order to make it stick in the minds of the American people. Give vital “details” to the plan in a comprehensive well thought out manner, that will give the American people a better idea what Romney wants to do and how he will govern America if he’s elected President. Right now Romney’s plan is vague at best. Don’t be shy, but instead, be bold and strong and GO ON THE OFFENSIVE against Obama before it’s too late. ‘Nuff said.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    It’s just that of the people who are sitting at home and have enough spare time in their day to take a survey a likely number of them are welfare recipients or occupy wall streeter types.

    Usually Republicans have jobs and hobbies or are busy with the kids.

    • APA Guy

      NOTHING, save Jesus Christ and my family, is more important to me than voting this guy out of office on that day…NOTHING.

      • superpatriot

        …somethings tells me everything will work out in November!!

  • ctredstater

    on Election Day – and make sure my friends and “like-minded people” do as well.

    it will be interesting to see the long lines of people waiting at 555 AM at the polling places all over the country.

    getting rid of this guy – and bringing in a more conservative Congress, will be the most satisfying Election Day since 1980.

    “Four More Months”

  • superpatriot

    …I’ve been thinking, in 2008, tons of college kids left class early to go vote for Obama.
    Something tells me that won’t be a factor this time.

    I remember when I was in college, and there are a lot of bright college students all across the country. They won’t be running to vote for a president who won’t be offering any jobs.

    And I think for every one Obama college student, there will be at least one smart Republican student voting to counter them.

    Any thoughts?????

    • zachv

      Will be still be overwhemingly voting for Obama. The level of intensity and thus the turnout, will be much lower however.

      • APA Guy

        College students are not all alike…and they are easily persuaded if presented with the FACTS that reveal this president’s agenda.

        Take it from one on the front lines of this battle. Presenting facts in an objective manner works wonders in this regard. The only thing Obama could do to replicate his 2008 performance regarding this voting demographic would be to forgive ALL student loans…and though I put nothing self-serving past this president, I don’t think even he would go that far to buy votes.

        • tnfriendofcoal101368

          This President will stoop to any level to keep his power.

          I will say recent college graduates are among the hardest hit in the Obama Stagnonomy (combine stagnant and economy)…with a glut of experience workers forced to enter the entry level market—college graduates are being pushed by to Mom and Dad with 100,000 of student loans and no job.

          Mom and Dad – Junior’s coming home TO STAY.

    • Dave_A

      Youth voter-turnout will return to it’s previous ‘lower than any other age group’ status, although the kids who do show will still overwhelmingly vote (D)….

      Most will just go order some pizza & get drunk….

      • acat

        Unemployment among recent college grads is significantly worse than among 30somethings or 40somethings.

        I don’t see him winning them over….

        The question is whether there will be another Alex P. Keaton.

        Mew

        • Dave_A

          The key is that 08 was an aberration, and the under-30 vote will return to it’s typical near-non-existence, now that we’re back to politics-as-usual (eg, 2 guys beating themselves over the head about things your average ‘youth voter’ doesn’t understand or care about – and thus can’t be bothered to go vote about)…

    • ww2nd95

      of that I have no doubt, but he won’t have anywhere near the same turnout.

      The “Alex P. Keaton’s” are gems, but unfortunately, they are very rare these days. I just heard an interview with Jonathan Krohn, the 13 year old from CPAC fame, and he’s gone from red to blue. Now according to him, he’s not a liberal, he’s just opened his eyes to more of their ideology, Either way, he’s no longer a conservative as we would like to see him.

      Stuff like the Jonathan Krohn story, really makes me concerned about the future of the conservative movement. I know he was only 13 and now he’s only 17, but even still.. For every 1 Alex Keaton, there are at least 10 Jonathan Krohn’s, who no matter what background they come from, end up being dramatically more liberal in their beliefs as they go through college and enter into their early 20s, and it seems to be over the last few decades, they are hardening in their liberal leanings. You can see in various polls, the country is moving to the left, and it isn’t just the Govt that’s doing this, it isn’t just Obama and RINO republicans, it’s college kids with liberal leanings, that are growing into liberal adults, and driving the country in that direction, slowly but surely, and it’s going to be difficult to stop/reverse, if not impossible.

      So either A) We adapt or face irrelevancy (nearer in the future then you think) or B) We convince this tide of left leaning youth that they’re going against their own interests (which will be difficult to do)..

      I’m not blaming the college teachings on this, I went to a state college, had liberal teachers, and still received a good education, and I’m no where near liberal.. It’s society in general. Being a liberal is like living in fantasy land, where everyone gets something for nothing, but who pays for it? And you grow up and learn the real world isn’t that way and become more conservative in your leanings. The problem is, that isn’t happening as often as it used to and more and more adults are staying in the “leaning left” catagory as they grow up. It’s going to be a tough trend to stop and I think there is room for concern.

      • Dave_A

        College kids and recent grads are overwhelmingly lefties…

        While reading the Chicago Tribune online a few weeks ago, I saw an editorial cartoon from the New Deal days:

        Chicago Trib Wallace Cartoon

        Seems it’s not a new problem at all…

        As they get older & trade their idealism for pragmatism, they become more conservative….

        • checkmate2012

          seems like O took a page and copied it verbatim. “junk the Constitution and declare a dictatorship”. Scary….I’m convinced he’s more like Wilson than FDR…or call it a bad combo

          • Dave_A

            Their website has a section that ‘brings back’ a cartoon from the distant past for each day…

            I thought ‘Damn, change the names, swap Stalin for Ayers or Chomsky, and that’s today’s cartoon’…

            P.S. For those who missed it, you may have to use the scroll bar at the bottom of my above post, to see the whole thing (and the Stalin part)….

  • jasonfielder

    This piece basically argues that Rasmussen is a bad pollster, since the race is a dead heat in his poll.

    • tnfriendofcoal101368

      showing Obama at 46% where he has been for months i.e. the incumbent isn’t moving – the general rule of thumb for a challenger is “If I am even; I’m leaving”. The move to 14% of independents to Romney reflects that. Here is the dynamic, does anyone in the country not know Obama or his policies? If you were voting for him – you’d already be in the yea column…but 53% of the electorate isn’t there. 46% have committed themselves to Romney – the rest will given time (unless Romney has a John Edwards like meltdown or the economy starts growing at5-6%). 52/48 is equal to a pretty large win nowadays..Obama/McCain was 53/46. Rasmussen shows 4% undecided and 5% other candidate. – Most of that 9% will move to Romney. Dan is looking at some of the underlying numbers on the polling.

  • renl57

    …about Bain and national polls is over and done with, we’re back to playing the original game: Electoral votes. Electoral votes rather than popular vote is what matters, as we saw in 2000.

    And right now, Romney has problems there that have nothing to do with Bain.

    Right now, Obama is beating Romney in Ohio because it’s a unionized state fearful of losing jobs–and Obama has touted the auto bailouts as having saved jobs.

    Obama is beating Romney in Colorado and Nevada due to overwhelming support from Hispanics. Hispanics are the only major voting group whose approval of Obama has actually risen since 2008. Right now, Obama is beating Romney among Hispanics by three to one. If that ratio isn’t changed, Romney can’t win those states.

    And there’s the bottom line. If Romney loses Colorado, Nevada and Ohio to Obama, Romney will lose the election.

    Arguing about national polls is a waste of time. Let’s focus on key states and how Romney can win those. Romney has to be able to appeal to Hispanic voters, and he has to be able to appeal to a working-class state like Ohio which is not a right-to-work state.

    • tnfriendofcoal101368

      Ohio

      Quinnipiac 6/19 – 6/25 1237 RV 47 38 Obama +9
      PPP (D) 6/21 – 6/24 673 RV 47 44 Obama +3
      Purple Strategies 5/31 – 6/5 600 LV 45 48 Romney +3
      Rasmussen Reports 5/29 – 5/29 500 LV 44 46 Romney +2
      NBC News/Marist 5/17 – 5/20 1103 RV 48 42 Obama +6

      Here are the recent polling in Ohio – Quinnipiac is a clear outlier. PPP has a pretty well known D+5 house effect (they are DKos’ polling firm of choice) Purple Strategies (if you account for they do registered not likely models) and Rasmussen tend to be close. Marist polls for MSNBC and again tend to have a D+3 house effect. None of these polls show Obama as even close to 50% and four months from an election undecided voters don’t break for the guy who has been President for 4 years. Romney’s going to win Ohio probably 51/49.

      Colorado
      Hispanic voters are way overrated in Colorado because of the large number of white voters there (non hispanic white voters comprise 70% of the population); 20% of the population is Hispanic but they are overwhelmed by the white voters (where Hispanic vote is determinate is when it is combined with a large African-American vote and a large % of liberal white voters – this is the case in Colorado). Here is the Colorado polling:

      WeAskAmerica 6/25 – 6/25 1083 LV 47 43 Obama +4
      PPP (D) 6/14 – 6/17 799 RV 49 42 Obama +7
      Rasmussen Reports 6/6 – 6/6 500 LV 45 45 Tie
      Purple Strategies 5/31 – 6/5 600 LV 48 46 Obama +2
      NBC News/Marist 5/22 – 5/24 1030 RV 46 45 Obama +1
      Project New America/Keating (D) 5/21 – 5/24 601 LV 48 44 Obama +4

      Again all of the numbers show Obama at his ceiling (where he has been since January) and again the PPP outlier also Keating is ran by Jill Hanuaer who ran Barbara Boxer’s campaign in another life and was director of the Pro Choice PAC and Kelly Nordini who was with Green Corps. If Hanauer and Nordini can’t get Obama to 50 well, I’ll let you fill in the blanks. It feels like Colorado ought to be closer than Ohio but I really don’t see it in the polling. I am going to go with lean Romney here.

      Nevada is more than likely going to go Obama. It like Colorado has a large Hispanic population combined with double the African American population and a lot of immigration from California. One thing is there is a large LDS population in Nevada and because Mormons vote at about a 99% clip – the % of people who vote in Nevada that are Mormon are always 1.5 to 2 times their percentage. That is another thing to look for in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico; there are rumblings that LDS with Utah secure are looking to poor money and boots to those three states for GOTV efforts. Well here is the polling:

      PPP (D) 6/7 – 6/10 500 RV 48 42 Obama +6
      NBC News/Marist 5/22 – 5/24 1040 RV 48 46 Obama +2
      Rasmussen Reports 4/30 – 4/30 500 LV 52 44 Obama +8

      I wish Scotty Rasmussen had some more recent polling because if factor in PPP’s and Marist’s house effects, it looks like Romney is coming fast since Scotty put his last poll in the field three months ago. Given the state of the Republican Party in Nevada, we are probably going to have to depend on LDS to run the GOTV operation there. I

      ‘ll give you one for free because I hope Axelrod has a staffer trolling because this will get him chugging a case of Pepto Bismol.

      NBC News/Marist 6/24 – 6/25 1078 RV 47 43 Obama +4
      Mitchell Research 6/18 – 6/18 750 LV 47 46 Obama +1
      WeAskAmerica 6/18 – 6/18 1010 LV 43 45 Romney +2
      Rasmussen Reports 6/14 – 6/14 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8
      Baydoun/Foster (D) 6/12 – 6/12 1783 LV 47 46 Obama +1
      EPIC-MRA 6/2 – 6/5 600 LV 45 46 Romney +1

      That’s Michigan

      • tnfriendofcoal101368

        To try to throw this election to Obama, is to misrepresent polling data. That has been way sneakier than obvious Bain lies.

        • APA Guy

          Romney +14 among Indies, but tied overall…RIIIIGGHT.

          If the polling stays even, Romney will win HUGE since historically undecided voters break for the challenger and unemployment is likely to be between 8-8.5% on Election Day.

          All we need to do is keep our foot on the pedal and take this home. Complacency is our worst enemy right now.

          • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

            is outspending Romney 4 to 1, especially in swing states, the fact that they are pretty much tied has to be giving Obama fits.

            And before anyone asks, I don’t have a link to that figure – heard it on Fox News this morning as I was getting ready for church.

          • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

            the same report indicated they are “tied.”

  • monolithic

    These one-sided talking points drive me nuts. A revelation and/or accusation is introduced. Weeks of rebuttal, ads by both sides, etc.. Repeat.

    Can’t we just fast forward to the debates already?

  • Joe Cor

    Even Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll doesn’t show a consistent Romney lead. And Rasmussen is the best head-to-head poll we can find to hang our hats on. Why keep telling ourselves how poorly Obama is doing because we can pull out some polling number here or there to comfort ourselves with? Why not instead try putting heat on Romney to run an aggressive, non-defensive campaign against Obama so he actually can win, preferably by a comfortable margin?

    • Dave_A

      The Dems have far more ‘locked-up’ EVs on day one, because of these huge, high-pop-density areas….

      While we pick up many of the ‘leaners’, most of these are Western states with low pop-density & thus low EVs….

      That’s why the election always comes down to a few squishy swing-states, such as Ohio and Florida…

    • ww2nd95

      This whole “We’re going to cream Obama just because..” isn’t the best thing to do. It’s good to keep people’s hopes up and they should be, as I have confidence that Romney will win, but I’m not going to just believe we have it so easily in the bag, as a lot of people seem to think.

      Romney needs to be more aggressive and form some ideas…. He’s skating along right now on people’s anger with Obama, but that’s not going to be enough. He needs to tell people what he plans on doing, rather then just continue with tax cuts and repeal of ObamaCare as his only talking points, everyone already knows that. Sure, bash Obama over the economy, but also form some positive ideas on what he would do to push the country forward again. I heard Chris Christie’s speech the other night on leadership and though I’m not his biggest fan, I agreed with his speech, on how people like honest, “put yourself out there and let the chips fall where they may” type of leadership, and I think Romney needs a little more of that.

      • elayman

        Because campaigning for a mandate of cutting entitlements and shoring up defense spending, while refusing to raise taxes on the wealthy is as politically unsalable a platform as Obama has proposed in piling on the entitlements, continuing to slash defense spending and increasing taxes on the rich to stem our financial hemorrhaging. Romney is at least saying the right things: “Am I willing to borrow money from China to pay for it?” while the president is completely unapologetic for his nearly criminal deficit spending but Mitt still doesn’t have a realistic plan to fix the economy or we would have heard about it The ideal candidate I think to most Americans would balance the budget by growing jobs, lowering entitlements, cutting defense spending and increasing taxes on the privileged. Romney is definitely closest but drawing stark contrasts on issues of entitlements, defense and taxes that will bring “a dramatic change in perspective and philosophy,” and still explode the budget is totally in the dark from a PR point.

        • tampabay23

          My family and I have been volunteering at the St. Petersburg Romney Victory Headquarters. In a state where over 1.2 million registered Republicans DID NOT VOTE in 2008, turnout and organization will be key. I can assure you Romney?s organization is much more on par with the ?04 Bush campaign, which was as organized as Obama?s ?08 machine. Considering McCain only lost FL by 250, 000 votes(roughly), we are in pretty good shape at this point being down only 1-2 pts. Also of note, Obama is spending A TON of money on ads here, with not much movement in his direction. I liken it to a boxer who takes several power shots from his opponent, but doesn?t go down. Ohio is in a similar position, with approximately one million registered Republicans sitting out the ?08 election. North Carolina should be a fairly comfortable win for Romney, as Obama barely won it four years ago in spite of outspending McCain 10:1 there. Iowa has swung from a +100,000 voter edge for Dems in ?08 to a +21,000 edge for Repubs. currently. Virginia makes me a little nervous because of all the gov?t workers, and there doesn?t appear to be much movement in terms of registration.

        • Dave_A

          It’s NOT WORTH IT to ‘trade’ entitlement cuts for caving on taxes & defense.

          Raising taxes on anyone is a no-go, because (A) they’ve already wasted the cash they’ve been given – giving them more is like giving a crackhead MORE CRACK and calling it ‘treatment’, and (B) any tax hike on ‘the wealthy’ invariably drifts down to hit everyone else…

    • tnfriendofcoal101368

      Thirty six percent of electors available are in California (55),Texas(38), New York (29), Florida(29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20). The only solid Republican large state is Texas and Scotty reflects that. The next solid red state after Texas is Georgia. We will always need to win the majority of the toss up states like Ohio and Florida to win. Scotty already has Romney up in Florida and closing with Obama not moving in Ohio; he is just not comfortable to move them lean Romney, yet. He will – Obama is not going to gain ground…here is the money quote from Rasmussen today:

      “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting 45% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

      Romney picks up 76% of the conservative vote, while Obama is supported by 86% of liberals.

      Among voters who remain uncommitted to either of the major party candidates, 46% are conservative, 31% moderate and 16% liberal.”

      Here is the thing to know Obama’s dominant position in California, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois is baked into his 45% number.

  • sssteverrr
    YOU CANNOT RESCUE US FROM BUSH RECESSION/depression, without increasing the debt and the deficit

    WE NEED jobs and the only way to ereate jobs is to increase demand, the only way to increase demand is to put money into people’s hands and the only way to get money into pe oples hands is o lower taxes or subsidies employment.

    THE REASON THE ECONOMY has not grown faster is because of republican unwillingness to increase the debt and raise taxes on the 1% ( the only sector that has thrived in this economy).

    Anybody who cannot see the logic in these concepts has my sympathy and is blinded by ideology.

    • Bill S

      No Democrite talking points here.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    Romney will get a post-convention bounce, driven mainly by the packaged rollout of his bio on network TV. That always happens. Whether bounce sticks depends on how well Obama counterattacks. But Obama is firing all his Bain ammunition now, so he may have trouble getting traction again. I believe we’ll see a 1-2% bump from the convention.

    He may also get a bounce from his VP selection, depending on who he picks. Conventional wisdom says that nobody votes for the VP, but it’s not hard to imagine some undecideds will swing his way for a compelling pick, especially a demographically loaded choice such as Rubio (or Rice). He might pick up another 1%.

    Finally, there are the July and August jobs reports. If they are as lousy as the last 3, he’ll get a 1% bump from each of them, as more undecideds conclude the economy is irrevocably screwed.

    If they are truly in a dead heat now, I think it’s not unrealistic to expect Romney to be up by 3-4% in early September. And that is before the traditional 90% break for the challenger among undecideds in the last week of the campaign.

    Obama is in deep trouble. Let’s hope the media keeps reporting otherwise.

  • romeg

    as if I were a two-year old, just why in the HELL Romney is allowing Obama to get away with his unrelenting lies about him and Bain Capital over this Outsourcing crap

    When Obama has outsourced our entire space program to Kazakhstan?

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