The new Quinnipiac University Iowa poll released today finds that Cruz has doubled his lead over Trump among the critical Evangelical voters. Cruz now leads Trump among Iowa Evangelicals by 12 points — 39 percent to 27 percent. The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race with Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants. Marco Rubio is at 13 percent. No other candidate is above 7 percent.
Cruz leads Trump:
- 50 - 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members;
- 49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as "very conservative."
Trump leads Cruz:
- 29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters;
- 37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."
The new poll is virtually unchanged from the January 11 Quinnipiac poll which found Trump at 31 percent, with 29 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, "Despite Sarah Palin's endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' 'New York values' comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call. Other interesting findings from the new Iowa poll include:
- Two percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
- Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say 'no way' to Cruz.
The Quinnipiac poll stands in stark contrast to national polls. The big takeaway from the new NBC Survey Monkey poll is that Evangelicals, at least according to Politico, are flocking to Trump. The latest NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly online tracking poll out today finds that Donald Trump now leads Sen. Ted Cruz among white evangelical Republican voters by 17 points — 37 percent to 20 percent. That's nine point drop for Cruz from last week among this demographic. Carson and Rubio are nearly tied in this group — 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
Otherwise the tracking poll shows that the race remains fairly stable. Trump still leads the Republican field, with 39 percent support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Cruz has 17 percent support, dropping four points from last week. Rubio has 10 percent support, while Carson and Bush hold unchanged from last week with 8 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Last week the poll found Trump at 38 percent among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Ted Cruz at 21 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent and Ben Carson at 8 percent — all essentially unchanged from the previous week.
Another national poll, the new CNN/ORC poll, also finds the race stable with Trump leading by a two-to-one margin. Trump leads the CNN poll with 41 percent. Cruz is at 19 percent and no other candidate hit double-digits. According to CNN, the race remains fairly stable compared with where it was in the most recent CNN/ORC poll in late December. In that poll, Trump led with 39percent, with Cruz at 18 percent and Rubio at 10 percent.