A new Opinion Savvy poll of likely South Carolina voters in next Saturday’s Republican Primary finds Donald Trump leading handily:
- Trump - 36%
- Cruz - 19%
- Rubio - 15%
- Bush - 11%
- Kasich - 9%
- Carson - 5%
- Undecided - 5%
The new poll of was conducted after the New Hampshire Primary, February 10-11, and has a margin of error of 3.5% and 95% confidence level.
According to analysis by Matt Towery (Sr.) Political Analyst FOX5 Atlanta/columnist and the owner/manager of Opinion Savvy:
Trump carries every age group except for the youngest (18-29) where Rubio nudges Trump out by 7 points. But Trump has comfortable leads among the other age groups in the poll. Trump has the highest support from almost every segment of respondents grouped by political philosophy. Trump leads among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” “somewhat conservative,” “moderate” and “somewhat liberal.” John Kasich leads among the few South Carolina GOP voters who describe themselves as “very liberal.”
Nearly 60% of the voters in the GOP primary identify themselves as “evangelical” in the poll. But even among these evangelical voters, Trump leads Cruz by ten points. Of course South Carolina primaries can be very volatile and turnout can greatly impact the final numbers.
The poll isn't that different from the Real Clear Politics Average for the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary, which as of Friday morning is based on nearly month-old polls:
- Trump - 36%
- Cruz - 19.7%
- Rubio - 12.7%
- Bush - 10%
- Carson - 8.7%
- Kasich - 2%
The significant change is the rise of John Kasich and the decline of Ben Carson.