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The Republican Party is playing a dangerous game

From the diaries.

There’s a lot to like about Paul Ryan’s budget proposal. It cuts some spending. It flattens the tax code down to just two individual marginal tax rates. It also includes some innovative policies designed to halt the unsustainable growth of health care entitlement spending. However, on balance, the budget is disappointing for fiscal conservatives for two main reasons: It waives the spending restraint that was agreed to in last year’s debt limit deal, and it doesn’t balance the budget until 2040. Broken promises and unbalanced budgets as far as the eye can see are neither good policy nor a good campaign rallying cry.

Last year, an agreement was reached in which Republicans gave President Obama a massive increase in the debt ceiling, in exchange for promised spending cuts that supposedly had “real teeth.” As part of the deal, Congressman Ryan and most Republicans voted to require an annual spending cap and $110 billion in automatic spending cuts for next year – otherwise known as “sequestration” – if the so-called “super-committee” failed to find $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction.

Since the predictable collapse of the super-committee, the House GOP should have been working toward a budget proposal that allows for the sequester to take place for the coming year. Such a budget would include the $110 billion in reductions. Ryan’s budget achieves vastly less. It contains $19 billion in discretionary savings and, at most, $53 billion in cuts to mandatory spending — $38 billion short. Thus, it leaves House Republicans breaking the terms of the deal they agreed to just seven months ago.

That debt ceiling agreement provided that half of those cuts would come from defense spending, and half from non-defense spending. Some conservatives object to that level of defense cuts. Fine. The key to the agreement was securing the total $110 billion reduction in spending, not which part of the budget was cut. If some want to rearrange the location of the cuts, that would be fine, as long as the overall magnitude of the spending restraint was sustained.

House leaders claim they are making more overall cuts. However, they are clearly short of the requirements for next year and are pushing the deepest cuts out into the future. We’ve seen this movie before. Lots of times. In other words, they are kicking the can down the road . . . again. No matter how you slice it, the Ryan budget breaks the promise of spending restraint that was agreed to in exchange for raising the debt limit. And make no mistake, we’re not just arguing over $38 billion. Now that this budget breaks that deal, both parties will work to unravel the entire $1.2 trillion in sequestered cuts. Don’t be surprised if the full unraveling happens later this year.

A group of fiscal conservatives in the House, the Republican Study Committee, has proposed a budget that balances in five years. It contains strong tax reform and spending restraint. In addition, the RSC deals with Social Security, an entitlement program left untouched by the Ryan budget. And just like the Ryan budget, the RSC plan shifts the burden of the sequester away from defense, but preserves, and in fact exceeds, the overall spending reduction level agreed to last year. That is the right way forward.

By waiving the sequester and refusing to balance the budget until 2040, the Ryan budget and the Republican Party are playing a dangerous game. It is hard to have confidence that our long-term fiscal challenges will be met responsibly when the same Congress that passed the August debt deal wants to ignore it less than one year later.

America does not have thirty years to balance the budget. We may not have ten. We hope that fiscal conservatives will take a harder look at the House GOP budget, and ask themselves if they can and should demand more.

Chris Chocola
President – Club for Growth

COMMENTS

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    There is just no way the nutless wonders in the GOP would enforce it, and the Democrats all knew that.

    At some time you have to actually go through with a threat or no one ever takes you seriously.

    • YnotNOW

      And the biggest fault of the debt ceiling compromise “deal” was that it was yet another example of folding. With that precedent, expect more to follow, unless we can elect some representatives with spine.

  • Tbone

    Obama.

    Ryan has sold out to the big government Republicans.

    • zachv

      What in the heck are you talking about?!

      • snowshooze

        nt

        • zachv

          We’re supposed to go all Greece up in that thing? You can’t slash a budget in half and not expect the roof to fall in. That’d absolutely murder us.

          Chris knows a heck of a lot more than I do about the budgetary process, but five years is not an obtainable figure. Not without raising taxes (again, shooting ourselves in the foot) or ripping a massive gaping hole in the side of Washington and the Pentagon.

          The whole 2040 figure comes from the CBO office’s static scoring, and assuming people continuing to act as they are an not reacting to Ryan’s tax cuts. That would not happen. In fact, Ryan reran the numbers:

          So on Thursday, Ryan reran the budget numbers assuming his policies would produce faster GDP growth that was 0.5, 0.75, or 1.0 percentage point above CBO

          • acat

            Thought it was higher.

            Eh. A million here, a billion there, pretty soon we’re talking about real money.

            Mew

            (hat tip Everett Dirksen)

          • zachv

            Missed the one point part.

            $3.7 trillion total expenditures
            $15.5 trillion debt

          • snowshooze

            How could I possibly argue with you?

          • zachv

            That term doesn’t even make sense to me. How does one ‘borrow your way out of debt’? And psychology? Explain?

            Look: You’ve got a household budget: Short-term fixed income, debts and expenditures. You’re in the red and you’re financing your spending habits on credit cards.

            You may cut you’re expenditures, yeah. You need to take drastic and serious actions in order to save your hide, but you can’t stop spending on EVERYTHING. You’d end being evicted for not paying your mortgage, or be surprised when you find your fridge bare.

            The hole we’ve dug ourselves into is bad. Really, really bad. Fixing it within 5 years is going to be next to impossible, and it’s going to take time, perseverance and planning to fix it. Heritage has endorsed Ryan’s plan, and Republicans probably are going to as well. Club for Growth, as pointed out by Chris, is not so hot on it only because they are (I’d say) super high standards. So what? We need to start somewhere.

          • snowshooze

            Take the hit. But do not accept the hayride.
            We CAN pull it in 5. But we cannot allow the games.
            Honestly, I think it impossible to reign them in. Impossible.

          • hart65

            To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.

            GEORGE WASHINGTON, letter to James Welch, Apr. 7, 1799

          • snowshooze

            We really could, but we cannot sell it.

      • Dave_A

        That is, it needs to be one which we can actually pass.

        Ryan has adjusted his budget plans on the premise that making it passable – or at least presenting a ‘passable’ budget in time for campaign season & forcing the Democrats to reject it – matters.

        The Left, responds to this ‘adjusted, more reasonable, passable’ budget with howls about ‘burning the safety net’ – and the media carries their water for them.

        An even MORE austere budget, would have even greater problems.

        The question is, do we want to start cutting in passable steps… Or do we want to wax all Ron-Paulesque, proposing gigantic grand gestures & huge slashing cuts that can never become law because the votes will never be there?

        Ryan didn’t sell out. He is exercising pragmatism.

        We spent over 200 years constantly running up this tab (the US has almost never had a balanced budget). We won’t be able to deal with it in just 5 or 10.

        • snowshooze

          And although we give a lot that we shouldn’t have to, we have to sell it… so water it down a bit… and sell.

          • Risky

            Ryan is doning the righ tthing to keep proposing plausible budgets. What the rest of the party needs to do is keep saying that the democrats are the party that won’t open their bank statements and willl keep spending until the USA can’t borrow another cent.

          • snowshooze

            Understood.

          • hayekwasright

            We are charging toward the cliff. I think it is a bit too late to be worrying about which side looks best when we begin to plummet. Similarly, watering down solutions so that they can pass within the current attitudes of our legislators is not going to cut it. We need to find a way to pass things that will actually solve the problems before it is too late and the time appears to be short. The RSC is doing great work, but we need to find a way to get a lot more legislators on board with them — especially the GOP leadership.

          • Dave_A

            Thanks to the W-years Democrats, EVERYTHING the minority-party doesn’t agree with gets filibustered now.

            So if the Dems are in the minority (which we will need in order to even think of balancing the budget through anything other than crushing tax increases) they will still force us to get 60 votes to pass government-cutting budgets.

            And we’ll need to keep doing it for the duration, until AND AFTER a ‘balanced’ state is reached.

            That means it will have to be done slowly and deliberately. Fast & ‘OMG, over the cliff’ style will never pass.

          • hayekwasright

            I think we are already doomed if we only allow ourselves to consider budgets that will pass with the Senate as it is. Passing the best thing that we can pass is little comfort if it still solves none of the problems. We need to push hard for fiscally responsible candidates in races where they are available (Cruz in TX and Mourdock in IN come to mind) and press sitting Senators that may be responsive to their constituencies to do the right thing. Yes we need to be thoughtful and deliberate, but we also need to recognize the urgency we face. As things stand, Freedom and the country as we know it lose if our side tries to win by playing the waiting game.

          • infiltr8tr

            The big problem with all of this is the fact that we have no one who can really sell/explain what all of this means. Ryan trotted out his plan and was under the assumption that once he explained it, nothing more needed to be said. Then the usual suspects demonized it to the point that the mere mention of it brings the usual shrill whining from the libtards.
            Whatever is done next, there must be an orchestrated plan in place to hammer home why this must be done again and again. We must beat them at their own game and most importantly – this must be done by someone with a Reaganesque quality, someone who can sell it and speak to the populace as Reagan did. Our “Leadership” can’t be counted on, McConnell has taken on the aura of the principal in high school who everyone hated and the coward Boehner will simply cry at the first sign of trouble. The only person with fire in their belly at this point who could do this is Allen West. If anyone has another name, by all means throw it out there.

          • hayekwasright

            In fact there are probably several others. Rubio comes to mind.
            But until we solve the leadership problem it is going to be difficult for even a “Reaganesque” champion to have much effect.
            We need to flood the legislature with more folks like Allen West, Marco Rubio, and Mike Lee. I could list more, but it would probably make more sense to list a couple that need support to get into the game, Like Mourdock in Indianna and Ted Cruz in my home state. If we can get enough folks in tat “get it” perhaps we can change the leadership and really begin to fix things. Big spending, big government ideas with a little GOP branding (what we are getting now from GOP leadership) isn’t going to solve the problems.

          • YnotNOW

            and that should be the message of our budget. Warn the public about the dangers of becoming dependent upon the Government, as well as setting up programs that trap others into dependency. Sure, the R party has not done very well at illustrating how a budget reflects that message. But it should not be as hard as we sometimes make it.

          • hayekwasright

            But the comfort and security of dependency seems to have been selling pretty well. It is a trap, but one that is often hard to make clear to people. That is why we need (as infltr8r put it) a “Reaganesque” communicator to help present the case.

          • funwithknives

            is all well and good but how many generations have learned that squealing, kicking, and throwing tantrums really does work.

            The ol’ *Peter paying Paul* endless loop will now Commence…..)

            There are lots of non-contributing Americans that are totally used to the reality of the idea of Governmental Robbery as long as they are The Receivers. From Social Security and it’s upside-down returns to beneficiaries, to the E I T C , it is a percieved normal.
            I am not saying it is not possible to overcome. I Am Saying very, very few are going to like or approve of the outcome and that literal bloodletting will be involved.
            The total ignorance and expectations of OWS were just a portent. A flaccid Judiciary and compliant,even accomodating local Govenments will be of little use.Even now, The UAW is co-opting OWS into” The 99% Spring”,and using union halls as training grounds. You’ve seen them in Edition 1.0, and they are called ‘Useful Idiots’ for a reason.
            I get to see Bob King in all his brilliance fairly often and read his published drivel every 4-6 weeks locally and can tell you one thing’s for sure; when it comes down to it, if his trainees are not dues paying UAW members they are so much cannon fodder.

            Fact, not fiction.

          • hayekwasright

            And that is part of what needs to be educated. The illustration is there to see plainly in Greece, if we will but look. It has worked for a long time here in the USA because we had such a deep rooted tradition of producers. But at the rate of acceleration of unfunded spending and calls for further taxing the producers, the gooses days are numbered and the number is not large. When the goose dies the golden eggs will stop.

          • demsaresatanic

            through traditional values, which the AHCH leftist rats have nearly destroyed in a large portion of our population. We are, indeed, living off the work of prior generations.

          • Stricia

            Here you are using the same acronym that makes no sense – AHCH
            AHCH
            For once be honest and tell us what the heck that is.

          • demsaresatanic

            figured it out yet?

          • Stricia

            lapert has the advanced degree. As much as you go on and on about it I would think you could keep it straight. I have no affiliation with that individual.

          • demsaresatanic

            thanks for showing up here and lying about me being ava’s sockpuppet whoever the h you are.

          • demsaresatanic

            So long as the electorate is given the option of voting themselves benefits at others expense I don’t see a happy outcome long-term. We can still keep rolling over our debt a while longer but sooner or later that bubble will burst, and it will be pure money creation keeping things going. When that bubble bursts our current situation will seem like a golden age.

          • YnotNOW

            is that the large majority will not stay on welfare, and do not want to be on welfare. Yes, there are the welfare leeches, but they are a minority. Even the 48% who pay no income taxes are usually open to the argument of low-tax economic growth and personal responsibility, because they do not intend to stay in their current tax bracket.
            Economic mobility is a reality, even when it does not always live up to the expectation. And so most are open to reason, rather than class warfare.

            Those that are not open to reason are lost already.

          • demsaresatanic

            “the large majority will not stay on welfare” but I don’t take them too seriously, we never see legitimate studies following a meaningful sample of welfare recipients transitioning into the workforce, it is usually something like “work or work training.” My guess is that many transition into some sort of disability program or just assume a new identity when their welfare entitlement runs out, but perhaps there are studies out there that demonstrate otherwise.

          • YnotNOW

            Though I am not familiar with specific longitudinal studies. Still, to pare welfare rolls by nearly 50% suggests that most were moved “somewhere” – and usually to work.

          • YnotNOW

            http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/how-to-think-about-inequality

          • bs61

            We need to work hard in 2012 to get rid of those who go along to get along in the GOP too.

    • Seedyrom

      sanity as was Senator Coburn was during the Bush years. I think we all want to see some articles as proof because his voting record is not as bad as some on the right. Though I do think 2040 is too long, more like 2020 or sooner.

    • bs61

      until I found out that his first budget took 26 years and did nothing to lower the baseline budget, like that Penny Mack plan does.

      And I don’t like him hanging with Eric Cantor, that’s just my personal gut feeling after I heard Cantor one morning on the Ingraham show being beaten into finally agreeing to give up earmarks.

  • rebel999

    The Republicans and the Democrats have their own ways on how to fix America’s many problems yet neither side gets anything done. We been at this junction since 1980. Since then our nation has increased it’s debt by two and a half trillion. Both parties deserve the blame Both parties have yet to come up with solutions. The Republicans keep saying that the rich need tax cuts to create jobs when the fact of the matter is that it is the consumers that create jobs because of their buying of goods and services. The democrats create programs for the poor without requiring them to work for their benifits as the private sector must do. So where are we at America? Is anyone going to come up with a plan we can all live with?! Read my web page at www.mybetteramericaplan.com to see a whole new way to run our government that I believe we need.

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  • Xasteius

    Analogy: I took out a car loan, and knew I had to budget so much a month for the payments. Once I got the budget established, then I could decrease other things to increase my payment on the loan.

    Let’s get a budget in place, and THEN we tweak it.

  • sowa1

    will go FAR LEFT if he is re-elected. Don’t trust him. Can’t get anything done in Congress unless Republicans take the Senate and keep the House. people had better wise up.

  • malvernpa

    Congress needs only 2 votes to fix the budget mess, one in the house and one in the senate. The vote needs to be on the compensation and perks for congress. Pass a bill where if GDP is zero or below the congress gets no pension for that year. If GDP is below 3.5% congress gives up that years pay. If congress lost the perks and pay they would be motivated to take the USA economy off of the chain. No motivation, no results, no surprise.

  • red2013

    The House republicans failed ot stpo the debt ceiling increase the the time. Wihtout the Senate they could have stopped in the house an debt ceiling increase had they mastered to get a minimu of 2018 votes in the House as the are in the majority.