« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Chuck DeVore: “This race is winnable”

By: Chuck DeVore (Diary)  |  June 5th, 2010 at 03:55 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This race is very, very much winnable.

Why?  Turnout.  According to some experts, Tuesday’s vote may be a RECORD LOW TURNOUT.

With only 22% of vote by mail ballots turned in so far many people won’t vote at all and many more will bring their absentees with them on Election Day.  There are many reasons why, mainly the lack of any real serious race for governor on the Democrat side and the huge amounts of negative advertising in the Republican governor’s race combined with the lack of any real exciting propositions on the June ballot.

With the extremely low turnout, this leads one expert to say: “If the trend continues, it will be good news for candidates and causes that have worked seniors and party regulars especially hard.”  That would be our campaign.

I cannot overstate the importance of this — turnout completely overwhelms the polling models and will cause unexpected results on Election Day.  For instance, in our internal poll taken on May 19-20, we were leading in two interesting categories: those who hadn’t voted in the last two elections (a potential disaffected Tea Party surrogate population) and those who were absolutely committed to a specific candidate.

Also, the last Field Poll shows signs of major movement for us:

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2338.pdf, with Fiorina at 37%, Campbell at 22% and DeVore at 19%, a more than doubling of support from the last poll taken in March.

More importantly, our positive name ID has spiked, as the Field Poll says: “DeVore is still the least known of the GOP senatorial candidates, with 51% of likely GOP primary voters unable to offer an opinion of him. However, among those able to rate him, opinions are very positive – 41% favorable and 8% unfavorable. This is a big improvement from last March when just 22% could rate him and opinions divided 11% positive and 11% negative.”

Lastly, we have two ads up on Fox News in half of the state, with ads running on major talk radio stations over large population areas too.  Our sign crews are very energetic and our call centers are working hard.

If team DeVore stays focused we will win this election.

Help us keep these ads on the air.  Make a donation today.

Tags: , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • Diogenes314

    For the record. I’m voting DeVore. I frankly think Florina is going to win, but based on the latest polling I think Campbell is going nowhere but down. Which is all that really matters, Either Chuck or Carly should beat Boxer in November. I can see DeVore coming in second ahead of Campbell, and I think he has a bright future.

    Hopefully I’m wrong and Chuck pulls it off. And Campbell goes away permanently.

    • http://joshuatrevino.com Joshua Trevino

      Campbell is going to lose.

      Which means conservatives can vote their conscience.

  • conservativecrusade

    good for DeVore. Hope he pulls it out and the runoff stays between him and Carly. Would make my year to put both Boxer and Campbell in the masses of the unemployed.

    • SteveLA

      conservativecrusade

      I think, might be wrong, but there’s no run-offs in the CA primary system. It’s whoever gets 1 more vote than others wins. “Jungle” primaries are mostly in Louisiana I think where you have to get more than just 1 vote.

      I dug around a bit but could not find an answer to the question, but I think the primary is for all the marbles here in CA.

      • Diogenes314

        DeVore probably wouldn’t be stuck at 20%. In a two way race, I think he quite possibly beats Fiorina, it’s having Campbell in the mix that gives thoughtful voters pause.

        • SteveLA

          Dogenes

          I think the decline to state voters, mostly I’s and D’s who don’t buy into the full Democratic Monty, without Campbell would break towards Fiorina more than DeVore, but who knows. Campbell went nowhere in the Governor’s race and jumped to the Senate race late in the process. Campbell support I think tends to be on the liberal side of the R party and the liberal DTS voter.

          My prediction, which ain’t worth much, Campbell and DeVore will end up with about the same vote totals, with both securing some base level vote, different bases for sure but some base level of support.

          • Diogenes314

            But they aren’t as significant a factor as the voters who either A) support Carly solely on ‘electability’ grounds or B) prefer not to waste a vote if there is a chance of nominating a neo-Dem like Campbell (put me in this category) by proxy-and then having the electorate go for the genuine article in the General.

            A head to head race between Chuck and Carly or one with instant runoffs would be too close to call even with the DNS solidly on Carly’s side.

          • Diogenes314

            I guess I made that up by accident. I meant DTS, of course.

      • calical

        …in CA primaries.

        • SteveLA
  • calical

    Still at it with the doubled since March? The jump from the high single digits to the mid-high teens happened six weeks ago. Ever since, Chuck has been steady in the 14-16 range, with a couple minor outliers like this 19 and the 12 from Probolsky. Maybe going up very slightly, but nothing dramatic. As long as that is the case, rising positives, while obviously a better thing to have than not, aren’t so useful if they don’t translate into increased support.

    Also, its hard to square hoping to win by low turnout and doing well among those who do not typically vote. I suppose it would require not just any low-turnout election for that to help, but an extremely unusual one in which the unlikely voters show AND the likely ones don’t, and both by a very large margin.

    Its hard to imagine, barring any new scandal or radically different approach, such a massive shift in the final weekend that moves Chuck from 25 points into last place to first, when for the last six weeks he has gone pretty much nowhere.

    • IJB

      But DeVore’s poll movement looks to me very similar to the movement of Marlin Stutzman’s numbers in IN before the IN Senate primary.

      While I believe winning is likely out of reach for DeVore, it would not at all surprise me if, in the end, he finished a strong second, just like Stutzman did.

  • psmith

    I just read a San Jose Mercury News article saying Fiorina is leading in all categories including the Tea Party groups. I had to laugh. Five minutes later I get the results of the Pleasanton Tea Party with about 10,000 emailed for the poll results 87% DeVore, 13% Fiorina, and 0% Campbell. Where do these people get their information? I don’t know one Tea Party member voting for Fiorina.

    • calical

      There are several reasons why this can happen:

      1. The Pleasanton Tea Party poll was taken a while ago, when the race was tight, before Fiorina jumped into the lead.

      2. Pleasanton Tea Party poll was not a scientific poll. It was just a mass email sent to members asking them to respond.

      Real polls take random and thus mathematically-equivalent to representative samples, and they approach people directly, prompting them to answer and thus being less sensitive to bias from those who are more excited about answering. The PTP poll is how polling used to be done before scientific polling was invented.

      3. It is possible that other Tea Parties are different from the Pleasanton one.

      4. However, while the PTP poll is systematically flawed, the other polls do have high variability. Each subpopulation has a margin of error based on the number in it, not in the poll as a whole. Thus, if, say, 40% of GOP voters are Tea Partiers, a poll is are about as variable in its answers about Tea Partiers as one with a sample size of 40% of the whole poll, thus increasing the odds of getting a result further from the true percentage.

      • Cheryl

        and beyond TEA parties, my connections are with the CA Republican party, northern CA, but I attend events that are northern and some state events. In talking to people at these events, the feedback seems to support votes for DeVore. When Fiorina comes up, there’s concern she’s got too many ghosts in the closet; everyone has heard she wasn’t popular at HP and the fear is it’ll kill her in the primary.

        So, I can’t figure out the polls either, I have yet to see who is responding to them, likely vs. unlikely, what’s the make up of Rs vs. DTSs. They are just not fitting with anyone I’ve talked to.

        Fiorina may have some name recognition in the Bay area, SoCAL, but no one I’ve talked to in the CV had heard of her when she entered the race, not the case with DeVore.

        • calical

          I wasn

          • Cheryl

            I understand the science of polling and I’m still confounded on the recent results showing Campbell with such generous numbers and DeVore so far behind, even if he was trailing, he can’t be trailing by that much.

            To view the latest TEA party results for Pleasanton, go to their site www.PleasantonTeaParty.com

          • ffc99

            be trailing by that much? Do you have any evidence to support this belief?

        • ffc99

          calical is correct, the science behind polling is quite solid. While you may not know anyone planning to vote for Devore, the fact of the matter is your anecdotal observations aren’t worth a heck of a lot. I’ll trust the polling (and that polling shows Carly has a fairly comfortable lead). Since you’re interested in more details about some of the polls, check out the Real Clear Politics website. It lists CA poll results and provides links to detailed information from some of them (including for one, a breakdown of support for each candidate by region of the state…which shows that Carly is actually running weakest in LA and the Bay Area…).

          • Cheryl

            I’m on RCP website everyday; I’m familiar with their polling process.

  • calical

    I wasn’t aware they had done another one. So scratch point one, but the rest of those things could still be true.

    My experiences are a bit different, in that I meet Carly people and DeVore people, but virtually no Campbell people, even though he on paper seems to have more support than DeVore. When it comes down to it though, the science of polling is solid, and anecdote isn’t even science. I recall the old story about the liberal who was utterly shocked that Nixon won, because s/he did not know a single Nixon supporter. Even if they are geographically or socially separate, the overall levels of support are almost certainly somewhere similar to what they polls, taken together, find, although the effects of likely voter models and surprising turnout profiles (if they happen) still can shift things a little.

  • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

    Polling has gotten much better over the years and generally they aren’t too far off from the final results. True, occasionally they miss a last-minute shift or surge, but usually in retrospect the evidence was there but missed because it was subtle – or the voter demographics were aberrant. I remember in the 2008 Presidential race reading here at RedState various reports from the field of a last-minute voter shift towards McCain that proved empty – the final margins were basically as predicted.

    Given the polling margins and consistency, plus the size of the California electorate, it would take a truly monumentally unexpected demographic to end up nominating DeVore. Even more so with the expansion of absentee voting. I will proudly vote for Chuck on Tuesday (unlike the governor’s race which will be more a vote against Meg, though I’m becoming aware that Steve has picked up some good endorsements), but I don’t expect to prevail. I particularly hope it’s not a blowout.

    But I’d sure like to be pleasantly surprised…

    • Diogenes314

      Fiorina 43
      DeVore 35
      Campbell 21

      Or something like that.

  • taxmaiden

    I still think it’s possible. Don’t discount the disgust that tea party folks and others like them are feeling right now. And I don’t think the moderates have the motivation and energy out there to get their people out to vote. I think De Vore had a better chance before Sarah Palin put her support toward Fiorina (which I’m still scratching my head over) but “it’s not over ’til it’s over”. I have my little arthritic fingers crossed for you. I wish I lived in California (on second thought…) so I could vote for Chuck. But we have our own uphill battle going on here in Connecticut, too. (Vote for Peter Schiff! He is the only true conservative running!) Good luck, kids!

  • eastbaylarry

    and I hope you’re right about the turnout working in your favor.

  • NeoKong

    You’d make a hell of a Senator.

  • joayn

    Also donated.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • beltaine51

    “with Fiorina at 37%, Campbell at 22% and DeVore at 19%, a more than doubling of support from the last poll taken in March.”

    The kick in the gut truth about Republican politics in California:

    Only a Republican can find a way to brag about being in last place.

    Bring on the arrows, the quotes – historical and biblical, bring on the insults… but please!

  • conservativecrusade

    dumbass troll! Most trolls know to at least act as if they belong here a few times before typing juvenile nonsense. And since one of your shortcoming seems to be literacy, I will help you out.

    The point of the post was that there is still a good chance of winning due to certain circumstances. Had nothing to do with celebrating being in last. Now go back to the rock you were under and stay there numbnuts.

  • beltaine51

    You see so much blue, perhaps you should ease up on the Viagra.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Being a lone conservative surrounded by liberals, I’m used to playing the contrarian, so no offense.

    But let you PR people talk like that. A candidate who openly hopes for low turnout already looks a little defeated. It also looks a little und-democratic.

    Your the underdog. You’ve got nothing to lose. Swing for the fences. Think big. Inspire more confidence. The end is near. Its time to go big or go home.

    You cant be a stud QB and tell the world your going to win the big game becasue the other side doesnt care. You got to tell your troops and the world that your going to win because you’re the best

  • SteveLA

    Swamp_Yankee

    Well a win by means of a low turn out and good turn out by your supporters would show some strength, at least with your base. How that would translate as “Big Mo” for a general, probably not so much.

  • aesthete

    and for the same contrarian reasons. My like for Chuck borders on mancrush sometimes (I particularly like his foreign policy and small government creds), but talk of hoping for low turnout seems a bit defeatist.

  • Cheryl

    it’s Karl Rove who advised us to be the “go to” person in your family and that’s become the case with me.

    I just got an email from the founder of the largest bay area TEA Party (said to be 10,000 strong) inviting people to come to sign waiving parties all around the bay in support of Chuck DeVore.

    Go Chuck! You pull this off, we’ll make you a household name and all Californians will have heard of you by November.

  • pamela1631

    A person must have belief in a sacred ideal, and have the faith in others and themselves to see it to a logical conclusion.

    So far the logical conclusion is Chuck Devore being elected Senator.

    I know of more than 25 people who will be voting for him outside of my own family. They in turn have spoken to others. The word has spread in the active military, retired military, hunting and fishing communities, in the construction and engineering groups. The word has spread to the medical, farming and senior communities.

    This coming Tuesday feels different.

    One Person. One Vote. As guaranteed by Our Sacred Ideal-
    The Constitution of the United States of America

    One Person. One Vote. The faith of person casting the vote and the person receiving that vote.

    Belief in a better tomorrow and Faith it will happen.

  • calical

    Also, a politician in last place will brag about anything they can find to brag about. It’s not party-specific. Would you really claim that Democrats don’t ever do this?

    What’s he gunna do, issue a press release saying the latest poll still has him doing rather poorly? Politicians of all stripes and their staffs tend to spin polls to emphasize whatever bright side they can find, or when that is not possible, try to critique the methodology.

  • calical

    …it is still very honest, and I guess he deserves at least some credit for that.

    It would strain credulity to say that all the polls are wrong and he really has more support out there among those who typically vote. A very weird turnout pattern is among the few outside shots he has.

  • beltaine51

    Calical

    Only a Republican that that has run campaign headquarters, directed precinct walks, phone banks, overseen GOTV in CA and my home state on the National, State, and Local level. All my time, donated.

    Only a Republican that has gone into the most Democratic sections of LA, alone, carrying the Conservative/Republican agenda with not an RPLAC or CRP to be seen.

    Only a Republican that has taken to the streets and not in the past two years, seventeen years ago, alone raising hell at SAG meetings with the nonsense of Asner et al. This was long before Friends of Abe arrived to hide on the scene.

    Only a Republican that has confronted party leadership for their continued ineptness, their continued wallowing in mediocrity, and their demand of unwavering subservience from the base.

    Only a Republican that has seen the Tea Party shrivel up to non existence in Los Angeles. One excuse after another as rally attendees dwindled and dwindled.

    Only a Republican that has seen the same pitiful boast from DeVore of support surging, doubling, or swelling for months only to always be in third place.

    Only a Republican that is appalled by the crass juvenile attacks of Americans, public and private, posted on social networking sites (DeVore’s, Aminoff’s, any number of Central Committee Candidates) that have endorsed let alone questioned DeVore’s candidacy. DeVore should have been ashamed of some of things posted on his wall.

    Only a Republican that sees the tiredness, the emptiness of both your and Mr. Viagra’s post calling me names and defining me for your convenience. I am willing to bet I have never seen you or Mr. Viagra around any of the campaigns I have been involved with throughout the years. I assure this, in my opinion, both of you are cliches that the left feasts upon to mine for their vile aspersions that are cast on people like me.

    Only a Republican that finds, we can win because nobody cares enough to vote, a loser’s inspiration.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    That’s a speech for a guy just beginning, who wants the base to believe. Its too late for that now. Its bad tactics, and it lets everyone know you need to rally the base, which is double bad.

    There are surrogates and back channels for that. At this stage, the leader has to lead. The minions can rally the troops. He has to look like a winner.

    Perhaps, Chuck thought this is an inside channel; that he could speak here and no one would notice. But it still looks desperate.

    But he cant act like that in CA, at this stage of the game.

    Write the same blog, and attach a surrogate’s name if you have to.

    Now is the time is pull out your sword and lead the troops into battle, whether your prepared to win or lose. Winning by default looks weak. It can happen, but a candidate should not openly hope for it at this stage.