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“The Deficit” Is The Wrong Yardstick

Real Fiscal Responsibility Is About The Percentage of Private Income Spent By The Public Sector

Yesterday’s swearing in of the new House and Senate, including the transition of power to Speaker Boehner and the new Republican majority in the House, inaugurates a new political season, in which “the deficit” promises to be front and center. President Obama is already sending up trial balloons about various proposals made by the Bowles-Simpson deficit commission. But Republicans should resist efforts to frame the debate as being about “the deficit,” because that term itself focuses on the wrong measurement.

Democrats like to talk about the federal government’s operating budget deficit as if it is a matter of balancing income against spending. It’s not. The money taken in by the federal government is taxes, but taxes are not income; they are simply a subset of the income of the private sector, in the same way that the money you withdraw from your bank account is only a subset of your bank balance. If you want to know whether you can afford to buy something, you look to the size of that bank balance (and the sources of real income that go into your deposits), not simply into whether you withdrew enough money to pay the latest credit card bill.

The mistake made in talking about “the deficit,” then, is in assuming that fiscal responsibility comes from matching public spending with the government revenues used to pay for that spending in the short term, rather than with the actual income produced by the private sector. It is the money thrown off by the private sector that is the ultimate source of all public spending, and therefore any sane measurement of real fiscal responsibility will measure the outflows (public spending) as a fraction of real income (private sector income) rather than the intermediate step of taxing real income. The larger that fraction is, the less the private sector has to work with to continue producing growth and a high standard of living; in short, the more of our private sector income we are spending today on government, the less we will have to leave to our children, regardless of how high or low we set our tax rates. Put another way, the problem isn’t that the government is spending more than the government takes in, but that the government is spending too much of what we create. (Keynsian economics, which is based on trying to create short-term growth with public spending, is fatally flawed because it ignores all but the shortest term effects of public spending – a predictable failing in the work of a childless economist and a director of the British Eugenics Society). Anybody who tells you that the federal budget operating deficit is a better measure of fiscal responsibility than comparing public spending to private sector income is simply trying to mislead you and isn’t serious about long-term fiscal responsibility.

Moreover, the broader question isn’t just federal spending, but all public spending, federal, state and local, although a good start to keeping a restraining hand on state and local spending is to refuse to use the federal government’s fiscal printing presses to bail out imprudent state and local governments, and in the long run stop using Washington as a tax collector for state and local governments, as happens in the myriad ways that revenues are raised nationally and then laundered back to the states.

As I have explained before, the federal budget deficit is only a symptom, and an imprecise one at that. Public spending of privately created resources, depleting the source of future growth, is the disease. If we restore the proper balance of robust private sector growth to a limited public sector, we’ll have no problem in the long run handling any operating deficits; if we don’t, the size of the operating deficit will be the least of our concerns. If the GOP is serious about setting our fiscal house in order, the new Republican majority must resist at every turn the urge to treat the symptom rather than the disease.

COMMENTS

  • Jack_Savage

    On a more simple and political note, Republicans should not be tricked into talking about “the deficit”, because Democrats can then make a case for increased taxes. The first and primary focus needs to be on out of control government spending, and fraud and mismanagement of entitlement programs. When every nickel is wrung out of every program, then we can talk about “the deficit”.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    First, here is a graph of current expenditures as a percent of personal income:

    expendituresand income

    As you can see, we do spike well above the recent levels, but not too much higher than the levels that persisted through the 80′s. Also, remember that we experienced the only significant drop in nominal incomes since 1959 (when the data begins) during this recession, which as the denominator affects the ratio in a meaningful way.

    Next is a graph of the same relationship, but using real (2005) dollars and using personal income less transfer payments:

    realexpendand incomelesstransfers

    In real terms (and less transfer payments on the income side), again we have spiked, but are only just above the levels seen following the 1981 recession.

    The question we have to answer with this equation is what is the appropriate percentage (the deficit is easier, because we would all like to see it as close to zero or balanced if possible). Also, it is of important note that the current expenditures by government does not include interest payments.

    • Dan McLaughlin

      What’s the source for those? I was looking for good sources for this stuff.

      • Death_of_the_Donkey

        “FRED” system (ie you kinda have to make your own, although the data is all there).

        I guess what I was trying to say is that using the traditional deficit is probably a better and easier measure and would likely accomplish the same outcome over the long run (assuming we get the deficit under control).

        • The_Gadfly

          included as part of current expenditures?

          I’d agree that deficits would be an acceptable proxy if it weren’t for a couple of things.

          1. Those interest payments keep getting bigger and near as I can tell, we are too close to the tipping point on them.
          2. Faulty government budgeting processes, most importantly, the baseline assumption that spending should increase to match inflation BEFORE you talk about whether or not it is a cut in the budget.
          3. The Biggie: 0bamacare has not yet been repealed. Unless it is pulled out at its roots, all that historical data is useless as a new 1st stage Saturn-type booster lifts federal spending beyond the stratosphere it is already in.

          • Dan McLaughlin

            with treating operating deficits as the issue is that it gives rhetorical space to liberals to treat tax hikes as the solution, when all they do is further shrink the pie of the private sector.

          • morninginamerica

            It would be interesting to see this chart back to 1930, when the feds were 4% of the economy.

            In that context, we could be seeing the beginning of a long wave down. Think what would happen if Social Security were mutualized, turned over to the “policy holders” like insurance, That would drop the national numbers a great deal and give better retirement income too. Then, there is Medicare, which could be a real insurance program someday.

          • tedpomeroy

            Check out Thursday’s WSJ, it is there.

            We are in what I call the Japan trap. Due to low interest rates we are holding down the interest cost of servicing the deficit.

            but now we are chasing capital out of the US economy when we have so much potential!

            and what is really sad, Ben Benanke looks at this predictiment as not his fault and inevitable.

  • michael_j_lambert

    About a year ago my brother, who has a much better head for money than myself, convinced me that the deficit was economically equivalent to paying for everything with money from taxes. I had never though of framing the debate about our nation’s finances in these terms before. Economically, it is the total spending that matters, not the difference between what the government takes out of the pot and what people feel it taking out of the pot.

    • carolina

      If we kept the federal budget (spending) around 18% of GDP – AND GREW THE ECONOMY = larger GDP, we would not have a deficit problem.
      Note that fed tax revenues of 18% of GDP have remained pretty constant NO MATTER WHAT THE TAX RATES.

      We may be running slightly under 18% at this time. I frankly think that the plethora of tax credits need to be reduced. (cash for clunkers; credits for insulation, etc; “making work pay” = payments to a family of 4 if they earned $50,000 = we pay them! (stupid)

      We need to avoid statist analyses (like CBO does). Cut spending and grow the economy and our deficit problem solves itself.

  • atillathehun

    There is no more insidious use of the tax code than to perpetuate class warfare. The confiscatory ability of the “graduated income tax” is totally dependant on the governments abi;lity to institutionalize envy. Envy as an emotion, is the liberal/Marxist theolgy that is being use daily to bring down the economy and the USA. It has not helped that the ethical conduct that was prevalent in the 50′s has been missing in large measure in the business community as well. The deficit has been deliberatly created to create the crisis. Marxist’s in the government have created it and the elimination of the Marists/Socialists at the ballot box is the only long term solution.

  • mspector

    Yes, government at all levels needs to stop spending. But our finger must point first at the federal government for the simple reason that the federal government takes money from the states, who take money from the counties, who take money from the cities. So part of our demand has to be: leave local money at the local levels.

  • bobbymike

    matters not how much specifically the government borrows. If the US government spent only $1.4 trillion and we borrowed all of it is better than spending $4 trillion and borrowing $1.4 trillion of it. The deficit is the same but the latter scenario government is much much bigger and therefore by default much more intrusive.

    Its all coming “out of the economy” in one form or another as a combination of taxes and borrowing.