Obama's Sub-Prime Electoral Map

Gallup has collected the data from their daily tracking polls throughout 2010 and contrasted the results to the same information from 2009.  Not surprisingly, their findings show that Obama has suffered a decline in every state since 2009.  His unpopularity is now ubiquitous.  Overall, Obama’s national approval rating has dropped 11% from 58% to 47%.  Furthermore, the polling data collected from nearly 180,000 interviews shows that Obama is viewed favorably by less than 50% of respondents in 38 states.  He is above 50% approval in just 12 states, and is viewed unfavorably by the majority of respondents in 16 states.

Here are some more highlights from the surveys:

• Obama enjoys his highest level of approval in Hawaii (65.9%) and lowest level of approval in Wyoming (27.6%).
• The President’s approval in his home state of Illinois is at an underwhelming 53.4%.
• Obama’s steepest decline from 2009 was in Vermont (shocking) and Arizona (not shocking at all).
• Obama is under 50% in states that are worth 363 electoral votes, while over 50% in states that are worth just 175 electoral votes.
• There are a whopping 13 Democrat Senate seats up for reelection in 2012 that are in states where Obama is under water.  Only one Republican, Scott Brown, represents a state where Obama is above 50%.  Hmmm, 47+13=?

But, here is the kicker.  The polling sample represents interviews with adults living in the U.S.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2010, with a random sample of 179,503 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

Anyone who is educated in polling 101 knows that there are three levels of target audiences for public policy polling; likely voters, registered voters, and U.S. adults.  Obviously, likely voters are the only people who are consequential in political polls.  Incidentally, they are also the most favorable target audience for Republicans.  A sample of registered voters includes a broader sample, and is less favorable for Republicans because it includes more drones.

A poll that merely samples adults can include anyone living in America who owns a phone.  Such a sample can even include those who are not registered to vote, or worse, non-citizens.  Needless to say, polling data of ‘adults’ is the most favorable audience for Democrats.  The fact that Obama’s approval is so anemic even among such a broad and inconsequential sample is a clear sign that he is vulnerable in 2012.  If their interviews had filtered out non-likely voters, Obama’s polling numbers would be downright toxic in every red state.

Calling all conservative presidential aspirants…..

Red Meat Conservative (Cross-posted)