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Ryan’s Budget: A Conservative View- The Excellent, the Good, and the Need for Improvement

Republicans should build upon Ryan's diligence to end Democrats' profligate socialism and expose them for the true extremists that they are.

The moment we have been anticipating has finally arrived.  House Budget Committee Chairman has released his budget for FY 2012, along with his blueprint for tax and entitlement reform over the next decade.  This budget proposal, which would cut $5.8 trillion from the CBO baseline over the next decade, is a mature and well balanced plan emanating from a city full of fatuous demagoguery.

It is important to note that this is just the preliminary proposal of the very first step of the congressional budget process; the Concurrent Budget Resolution.  There will be ample time to sort through all of the components of this plan and provide the appropriate changes as needed.  Nonetheless, it is a laudable first step that has come to fruition through the assiduous work of Paul Ryan and his Republican colleagues on the Budget Committee.  It is a fresh breath of moderation and seriousness amidst the extremism that is so endemic in Washington among the Democrats.  Here is a cursory breakdown of some of the major provisions of the Ryan plan, categorized by the excellent, the good, and the need for improvement.

The Excellent

  • Medicaid: The budget proposes a transformational change to Medicaid by converting it to a block grant program which would give states more flexibility in how to spend their Medicaid dollars.  There would also be an overall cap placed on the block grants.  This would encourage states to innovate and formulate the best ideas for reducing dependency, instead of exacerbating it through an open ended entitlement program.  The plan would trim the cost of Medicaid by $771 billion from the CBO baseline over the next decade.
  • Corporate Welfare/Ethanol/Farm Subsidies: Ryan’s proposal repeals the odious ethanol subsidies lock, stock and barrel.  It also reforms farm subsidies by trimming farm/corporate welfare from its current level of $25 billion.  This is especially prescient given the record high food prices that have been spurred in part by these market-distorting subsidies.  To address the record high energy prices, the proposal calls for an end to tax cuts for the rich – no more green subsidies!
  • Obamacare: It defunds Obamacare lock, stock and barrel.  While much of the budget is driven by choices between several evils in order to reform existing Democrat entitlement programs, this proposal prevents ObamaCare from becoming another Medicare/Medicaid disaster.
  • Taxes: The proposal reduces the highest corporate and personal income tax rates to 25%.
  • Earmarks:  The ban on earmarks is made permanent.
  • Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae:  The budget plan cancels these economic destructive government entities and calls for their privatization.  The resolution also calls for an end to corporate bailouts that were enshrined in the Dodd-Frank financial takeover bill.
  • Pell Grants:  All of the exorbitant increases in Pell Grants that were a part of the stimulus bill would be defunded.  This will help slow rising tuition inflation that has been generated as a result of these interventionist programs.

The Good

  • Medicare:  Ryan proposes a premium-support program to replace the current market-distorting, bankrupting, and open-ended subsidization of all health care for seniors.  Under such a plan, the government would pay the premiums of Medicare enrollees’ so they can purchase an insurance plan of their choice in the free market.  As with the Medicaid proposal, this plan would mandate an overall spending cap on the amount of the premium payments.

While this plan is a prudential first step to infusing the free market into an otherwise socialized sector of the economy, the changes will not take effect for another 10 years.  Also, a more conservative approach would have called for the issuance of vouchers, thereby directly empowering the individual, as opposed to perpetuating the role of government through their payments to insurance companies.  In addition, the plan calls for adjustable spending caps that can lead to means-testing based upon the needs of the individual.  Those who contribute more into Medicare shouldn’t receive less because of their personal income status.  The individual’s contribution to Medicare and Social Security is what sets apart those programs from welfare programs.  As such, they should not be means tested.  Nonetheless, Ryan’s Medicare plan is a decisive step in the right direction.

  • Welfare Reform: Ryan proposes converting the Food Stamp program into a block grant to states that would be indexed to inflation and tailor made to each state’s own unique circumstances.  He also wants to apply the 1996 welfare reform accountability mechanisms to other housing assistance programs.  There are currently a staggering 44 million Americans on food stamps and the program is projected to cost $700 billion over the next 10 years.  Ryan’s reforms offer a very good first step.

On the other hand, there are still over 70 other welfare programs that cost another trillion dollars, but are untouched in this proposal.  Republicans should look to Jim Jordan’s Welfare Reform Act of 2011 to build upon Ryan’s reforms of the Food Stamp program.  [Read more about Jordan's plan here.]

Need for Improvement

  • Social Security: The most glaring omission of Ryan’s budget plan is a fix to Social Security.  It is understandable why Ryan would shy away from touching the most sacrosanct program in the federal arsenal, especially as he is bravely striking out at virtually all of the other major programs.  However it must be reformed.

Many good conservatives are so concerned about solvency that they are calling for a raise in the retirement age and means-testing of benefits.  While those proposals might succeed in making SS more solvent, they are an anathema to the ideals of free market capitalism and individual liberty.  It is inconceivable that a hard working 30 year-old should be forced to work until 70 (maybe longer) and then awarded his retirement at the whims of a means-tested regime, all the while having no property rights over his retirement security.

The objective of entitlement reform is not to make a Democrat-run program solvent.  Our objective vis-à-vis entitlement reform should be focused on returning the wealth to the American worker and taxpayer by promoting more liberty and prosperity.  It is fair to propose much needed innovative changes such as benefit cuts and retirement age adjustments for those who optionally enroll in such a program.  However, there can be no discussion of raising the retirement age without offering young workers private accounts or an option to opt out.

  • Taxes: Repeal Death Tax- One of the more egregious components of the grand tax deal last year was the reinstating of the immoral Death Tax at 35%.  The Death Tax needs to be abolished. Period.
  • Non-defense discretionary spending:  The proposal only cuts $1.7 trillion from domestic discretionary programs over 10 years.  That adds up to roughly $170 billion in discretionary spending cuts per year.  This is accomplished by bringing non-security discretionary spending back below 2008 levels and then freezing it for five years.  Spending levels for most agencies should be reduced to 2006 levels.  Furthermore, Republicans should take a closer look at Rand Paul’s proposal to cut up to $500 billion a year by eliminating such impotent departments as HUD, Education, and Energy.  His plan would also seriously reduce the funding, size, and scope of the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, HHS, Interior, and Labor.

Keep in mind that when we fund these agencies, we are not merely losing the billions or tens of billions of dollars in wasted expenditures.  These superfluous agencies use that funding to impose onerous market-distorting regulations and mandates on job creation, income growth, energy productivity, and consumer purchasing power.  Such a cost to our economy is incalculable.

  • Debt and Deficit: Due in part to the previous point, the proposal would take too long to balance the budget.  For FY 2012, the government would spend $3.529 trillion and collect $2.533 trillion, still resulting in a gargantuan deficit of $995 billion.  It would take another 26 years to fully balance the budget.

Conclusion

The Democrats have worked indefatigably for a century to destroy the fabric of our free market, liberty seeking society.  We will not restore our republic overnight.  As such, Paul Ryan’s proposal provides us with the building blocks from which to bring about the restoration of our constitutional government.  More importantly, it has spurred a much needed sagacious debate about the best way to fulfill those ideals-a debate that has been suppressed by the Democrat extremists in Washington.

The Democrats can no longer hide the fact that they have no desire to cut one red-cent from their sacrosanct $3.8 trillion annual plunder of the American worker and their $14.2 trillion foreclosure on the next generation.  They will fight vociferously to keep every last poverty inducing, market-distorting, and price-hiking program.  After all, the future dependency and impending poverty of the American worker is the mother’s milk of Democrats’ perennial power.

Republicans should stick to their guns and build upon Ryan’s innovations.  A new poll shows that Americans align with the Tea Party against Congress on all major issues by a 48%-22% margin.  There is nothing to fear, as the Tea Party agenda is good politics, and more importantly, good policy.  Quite the contrary, it is the Democrats who should fear electoral reprisal.  Their extremist policies have killed jobs; reduced income, raised the cost of food, energy, and vital needs; perpetuated poverty and corporate cronyism; depredated our energy productivity; and spawned a virtually immutable debt crisis.

Paul Ryan’s budget resolution is the starting point for our efforts to reverse all of these statist ills.  The only question from here is how quickly we desire to return to a path of prosperity and individual freedom.

Cross-posted to Red Meat Conservative

COMMENTS

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    the US has been lacking a true leader for years now and Paul Ryan has stepped up to the plate and given us a wonderfull blueprint to work from. Of course there is no way we will get all of this, but I think we should stick to the baseline that he has established, and negociate from there (not from the failing policies that are currently in place). I’m proud to stand with Paul Ryan who has put substance over sound bites.

    • YnotNOW

      In particular, we must avoid feeding the Press’s temptation to say “even conservatives don’t agree with x, y, z and therefore the plan is dead-on-arrival from both sides.”
      We must say “we agree with a, b, and c, and even though we would like better on x, y and z, this proposal gets closer than anything the Democrats have offered. In fact, the Democrats have not offered ANYTHING, so this proposal is the starting point, and the only plan for negotiation.”

      • Ann_W

        Last night’s talking point was “killing medicare.”

        • YnotNOW

          Nancy Pelosi responding to Paul Ryan’s new budget proposal:

          “In one of the bills before us, six million seniors are deprived of meals — homebound seniors are deprived of meals.?

          h/t Katie Pavlich, Townhall?s Washington Beat

      • pcyoung

        Conservatives have always held more plausible solutions to existing problems as we tend to evaluate problems in terms of what has worked in the past. It is unfortunate that , democrats and young people in general, have an intrinsic aversion to anything that suggests before last week.
        To place this in perspective while watching a documentary on Truman my 15 yr old son commented. “Dad these shows are so slow!!”
        Two conclusions from this. I doubt that data entry into brains can exceed the standard rate of 7 bits per second and it reinforces that presentation and proprioceptive stimulation for the younger generation appeals to and is substituted for real though and consideration.
        Having said that would suggest that we, as Conservatives, begin to unify in a larger sense than we have been. The Tea Party’s partial success was based on its rapid ascension and in the numbers reported for membership.
        If we are to win, if we are to change this course our government is taking. We need to consolidate and accrue larger number of individuals who are willing to agree to a fiscal agenda as the number one priority and be willing to organize through representatives who will evaluate whatever statement, policy, plan or agenda we wish to state and confer to determine its consistency in terms of Conservative Principles and Tenets.
        We can win. We can change this course and we can bring our country back from the brink. As with all causes there must be a seminal event that is severe enough to warrant putting aside differences for the greater good or in this case OUR NATION’s economic survival.
        The previous statement is not fear mongering but a realistic assessment for the state of affairs. I am planning on acquiring a rough number, via a simple poll, as to how many Conservatives are willing to consolidate in order to regain the necessary authority for change.
        If you agree with this approach. Please indicate your support.
        The next step would be to set forth a simple agenda and an agreement that we stipulate as the necessary priorities to resolve fiscal issues.
        This would next entail forming a representative committee formed of the most trusted and informed Conservatives who have retained their credibility.
        This could work and I see no reason why we cannot accomplish more through the process of unification rather than continued discussion.
        I would hope that this idea will take root and we can begin a nationwide campaign to pull our Country from the Brink.

  • jtlfromfredmd

    Hearing Ryan speak and just visualizing what our country “could” be like if these proposals are adopted almost makes me giddy. Is is perfect? No. But it’s a darn good start. Just comparing it (the budget) to anything that any democrat has proposed or uttered in the last 10 years makes the democrats look just the way they truly are – dark, lost and completely out of touch with most of America.

    • kestrel

      Ryan himself represents a district that voted for Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, and Obama, yet the people on the ground there are saying the same things as RedStaters and Tea Partiers about the fiscal crisis. We really ARE part of the mainstream citizenry in this matter. Ryan has had more than 500 townhall meetings on fiscal issues. To quote him,

      “People want us to get a handle on this situation. People want us to get spending under control, to get this debt under control, to get growth in the economy. They want us tackling these big challenges. The people are way ahead of the political class up here. The country’s ahead of us up here in Washington.”

      I believe the same is true of a potential government shutdown. The Democrats’ moaning about lack of meals on wheels or whatever is so unmoored from the reality of how the public views the debt crisis that it’s almost laughable, and it will not stick — no more than the endless promotion of ObamaCare has helped that lead balloon to fly.

      From a column by Detroit News editor Nolan Finley: “Beltway insiders expect us to be terrified by the prospect of a government shutdown. They predict we’ll forget how angry we are about runaway deficits and turn on those few politicians who dare to cut spending.

      “Go ahead. Shut ‘er down. See how long it takes us to notice.”

      Sorry if the shutdown’s off topic here, but in a way, all this stuff is related.
      (The quote from Ryan is from a CNBC interview posted by Professor Jacobsen.)

  • annas

    I too was visualizing what our country would be like if these proposals could be adopted. It will be a long hard fight, but worth the effort! I read last week that Paul Ryan would make a great candidate for Pres. Imagine that!

    • writeblock

      Ryan’s another guy who seems to me too nice for political warfare. He’s right where he ought to be just now. He was born for what he’s doing. Let him develop better political skills before we start pushing him for president. We need a warrior at the top this time around, somebody who will stick it to Obama big time, not another gentleman too noble to meet fire with fire.

    • Doc Holliday

      Of course he is not going to run, he seems quite happy where he is. Some guys just like legislating, and that is fine.

      • YnotNOW

        Paul Ryan’s strengths are budgets and numbers. We need this in the House, where budgets are generated (by Constitutional mandate).

        And this same leadership is not enough to make a Pres candidate successful.

        • Diogenes314

          If what you said wasn’t absolutely true.

          Definitely leading candidate for the next Speaker though. Once he gets the ball rolling in the budget committee and/or Boehner flames out.

  • pdawk

    I would like to see a phased approach to cutting 30% or more off current levels of defense spending. Force the DOD to become more stream lined.

    Also, no one wants to touch it, but Social Security should be the easiest to reform. Just go out and phase the retirement age up from 65 to 70 over the next 40 years.

    Also agree that wacko Ron Paul actually has a good idea to cut out departments that serve no useful purpose other than to get the government in some other area of life it doesn’t need to operate.

    • Doc Holliday

      waste, fraud, and abuse is enough to cut 30 percent from any government program. You just have to hire some businessmen to ferret it out.

    • mathmatters

      Are you serious?

      Increasing the age for retirement to 70 would help solve the budget problem, but it’s jjust a massive tax increase.

      These people paid in for years — I paid in for 38 years. Now I would have to wait 5 more years?

      Guess what? I would have to work five more years too. I would get far less back from SS — because I would be on it five less years.

      So it’s a huge tax increase to some people.

      Funny how your “easy answer” is to raise taxes on those who have paid for decades.

      Raise the taxes– raise it on everyone, not just me.

      • dcgator

        If they raise the retirement age, they aren’t going to tack it on to someone over the age of 50 (which I assume you are if you’re been paying in for ~38 years).

        While a good plan, they know for a fact that seniors won’t go for it if it taxes them and forces them to re-evaluate their retirement.

        If I remember correctly, it’ll affect people under 35…so they have time to prepare.

        Next time read a bit more about the bill. k thanks

        • edingerb

          However, we must also realize that even though dhorowitz3 gave an excellent analysis of the plan, at least one person (mathmatters) became distraught over the non-fact that his social security would be affected, even after reading an explanation about it.

          Now, couple that with the MILLIONS out there that have not seen or heard a positive, well articulated explanation of the plan. Then reinforce that with the Nasty Pelosi (et al) lies about it, as well as the MSM onslaught that has already begun.

          What you have will be a lot of seniors, as well as uninformed young people who can’t and don’t read, who will rise up in protest to the “draconian cuts” that they perceive to be coming. (A good rule of thumb – if a democrat starts wailing and gnashing teeth about people starving to death, it is a sure bet that the opposite will happen.)

          My point is simple. There is a lot for each of us to do right now to start drumming up support for Ryan’s bill. We know it is just a start, there needs to be much more cutting.

          Start writing and calling Congress. Inform your neighbors. EMAIL this dhorowitz3 post to as many people as you can. Get people to sign up for REDSTATE. Write, call and complain about/criticize the major MSM outlets about their sickening love affair with the socialists.

          Positive change (reversal of current socialist policies) will only happen if MORE conservatives get involved. I mean A LOT MORE than the 2010 elections. A good example of what can happen if we don’t back up people like Ryan is what just happened with the (well organized) unions in Governor Walker’s front yard. Even though most people support what he has been doing, you would think that it is terribly unpopular due to the thousands of thugs from all over the country flooding (bussed) in to protest.

          We need to make ourselves heard.

      • taxpayer1234

        when I retire. I’ve made other investments. I’m grateful SS is there for my elders. But until there’s some actual reform that makes adjustments for the fact that there are something like 3 wage earners for 1 retiree (it used to be 20:1), I’m not holding my breath.

        • Doc Holliday

          self determination; realistic views of the situation; refreshing. Too bad you will always be in the minority. This debate has further solidified my view that we as a nation will NEVER truly own up to the problem. We can elect conservatives and lower the deficit, but people will vote for the true changes needed to square the books. Even many Republicans want to cut spending, but would never give up what they are “owed”, to hell with their grandkids’ and nation’s future.

          • rightwingmom52

            that my husband and I don’t expect to draw any Social Security even though we’ve paid into it for 30+ years, so we are planning accordingly. I would even support a plan under which we forego drawing it in order to help the country and my son’s future, however, in return I think it’s only fair that the government stop confiscating that portion of my paycheck. I said in another post here at redstate that we all scream about spending cuts and entitlements, but when it gets down to the nitty gritty, there just aren’t very many who are willing to make any real sacrifices.

          • Spartan4Life

            I think all you would have to do to put it on a plane to solvency is fix benefits at current levels. Over time it would make up a smaller and smaller portion of folks retirement income. That would also give new workers entering the system enough time to increase their saving.

          • MrMosis

            “…there can be no discussion of raising the retirement age without offering young workers private accounts or an option to opt out.”

            Or how about just offering young workers private accounts or an option to opt out.

            Incentivize / reward younger (or less old) workers to cut their loses (officially kiss the money they paid in goodbye) in the short term so that the whole mess can be cut off and end ASAP.

            How to fund the beneficiaries whose ongoing retirement is prior to the cut off date? Since there is no trust fund, I guess this problem needs to be solved. But the cost of solving this problem is minuscule compared to the whole disgusting SS mess. The thinking behind these programs is in part (a large part, too) the cause and precursor to the sickening state the country is in today, both financially and morally.

          • Spartan4Life

            If you made it optional nobody would sign up. It is supposed to be some beloved sacrosanct government program and if they gave you a choice not one person would sign up for it.

            I have three children entering the workforce in the next few years and they already hate SS without having been forced by law to participate in it.

            What a joke we have become.

      • qurys

        A tax increase? You are worried about a seeming tax increase in the face of massive theft. All the money you have paid into social security has been stolen. It has been stolen by many of the very same people who will refuse to fix it. It has been paid into dubious programs to dubious beneficiaries by the same people we elected who will refuse to fix it. And you whine like a child (sorry…but it sounds that way) that you will have to work for 5 more years? I would gladly have worked for 5 more years if I could.. but try getting a good paying job at 60 years old. You are too experienced! I would gladly work another ten or twenty years or till I drop dead to secure the future of my children and grandchildren. If you are truly looking for an additional five years when you can live on $1200 a month social security – then have at it! It’s no picnic out here in social security land.

      • osis

        ABSOLUTELY!! “Mathmatters” has it right.

        The way to save social security is to increase social security deductions (payments into the program) for everyone. There should be no cut-off over a certain income amount. As with so many programs, the poor and the middle class are asked to pay, and the wealthy get a free ride.

        • Finrod

          Taking away a government benefit is NOT the same as a tax increase. That’s a gotcha that liberals try to use against conservatives that are trying to cut bogus spending that liberals voted in. “You can’t get rid of our ridiculous subsidy to unions, that’s the same thing as a tax increase!”

    • Diogenes314

      All of the Democrat carping over defense will give us a place to ‘compromise’ by giving them cuts that they want in addition to the ones we need.

      But realistically, Defense isn’t the problem. It’s lower as a percentage of the GDP than it was in the eighties and isn’t scheduled to blow up the way entitlements are. And once the next POTUS winds down our foreign conflicts, it should come down nicely without risking our security needs anyway.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    with this. Including getting the unemployment rate to 4.0% by 2015 and 2.9% by 2018 (we haven’t seen a 2 handle on unemployment since 1953 and haven’t seen a non-bubble induced 4 handle since the very early 70s). The budget also assumes no inflation and thus really low interest rates (even assuming a robust economy and 3% unemployment), which seems highly improbable at best.

    As to the meat of the proposal, the glaring omission from real cuts was defense, which really could use about a 30% haircut. I would like to see the same percentage of cuts applied to ALL discretionary spending (defense and non). Also, while he cuts farm subsidies, I want to see ALL market distorting subsidies go (energy, oil/gas, mortgage interest, etc). I also didn’t see how he treated cap gains/dividends, but it would seems with a 25% top rate that at the very least dividend income should hit that rate and not longer get favorable tax treatment over other investment income.

    • aesthete

      except for cap gains. We could cut quite a bit from the military budget if we stopped treading water in Afghanistan, mucking about in Libya, and if we generally scaled back our more absurd, useless, and counterproductive commitments.

      • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ dhorowitz3

        Here is the deal with Defense. The way I look upon it is that there are two categories of defense spending; general long-term upkeep of the military, weapons, infrastructure, etc., and wars.

        I don’t see room for large cuts in the first category. We simply need to maintain our deterrent power. With that said, I’m sure there are some rent seeking porkers within the defense contracting complex that can be canceled.

        The major player here is the cost of the wars. Unfortunately, this must be dealt with as a policy issue instead of a budgetary issue. Republicans need to become more assertive in formulating ideas for ending the long-term heavy commitment in Afghanistan, not just for budgetary purposes but for the sake of our troops. Iraq is headed in the right direction, and Libya is so egregious that it needs to be canceled immediately.

        The bottom line is that once we formulate a proper foreign policy and coherent mission and strategy in Afghanistan, the cost of defense will be taken care of.

        • Doc Holliday

          and they do count war spending aside from the standard military budget as far as I know. However, I don’t think defunding wars is a good idea. When the president makes a decision to act, we should disagree and fight on the political front if our view is that opposed to the action. The Democrats are the ones who defund war commitments and end up costing lives and American honor (see Vietnam).

        • aesthete

          Of course, considering that “defense” is whatever the Pentagon wants it to be, it’s a sure bet that there’s plenty in there that doesn’t make Americans safer by one bit. Military spending has doubled and keeps going up; heck, the “cuts” that Gates is talking about are cuts to the increase in spending. We could cut 10% without affecting the material security of the US, and probably a good 20% if we stopped nation-building, “humanitarian” wars in the latest cause celebre in Africa or the Balkans, and if we were more prudential about the conflicts that we involve ourselves in.

          • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com;http://news.unifiedpatriots.com/ Beaglescout

            For example Germany and Japan do not need our garrisons to maintain their internal security anymore. Same with all friendly countries. I even have doubts about the use of being in South Korea. That’s what we have a navy for, to project US power all around the world. We don’t need sitting garrisons too.

        • Death_of_the_Donkey

          will be gone in like 3 years (it is broken out in the budget), but even after that, defense spending barely takes even a nominal hit. I know there is waste in the defense contractor industry and that doesn’t even include the huge projects that really have no place anymore like the new amphibious landing craft and even potentially the new class of aircraft carriers). We can provide for a very strong national DEFENSE without spending $700 billion/year to do so.

    • Doc Holliday

      we could get low unemployment rates. North Dakota has a 4 handle, The DC area has very low unemployment. So two areas that could not be more dissimilar have found a way to succeed. Now we know why DC is doing well of course, but the point is low unemployment can be achieved but we are not doing what must be done to achieve it.

      I don’t get your argument why we should raise dividend taxes. That is like the European who wants to bring down the rich man to his level, rather than to rise up to the rich man’s level. Dividends should not be taxed at all, as they are already taxed at the corporate level. Other investment income should get LOWER taxes.

      Of course I am for a national sales tax and an end to the income tax. I doubt I will see it happen.

      • Death_of_the_Donkey

        is that they are income plain and simple and if we are going to be simplifying the tax code and lowering rates, then dividends should be taxed as ordinary income just like any other earnings. Your risk is in the cap gain/loss (which should still probably be treated differently for long term gains).

        • Doc Holliday

          Hell, I want to throw the thing out. The only reason it exists is that it is a subsidy/jobs program for accountants and lawyers. But I could not disagree more that dividends are not a risk, look at the large caps that ended their divies during tarp.

          If nothing else there should be no taxation on dividend income below say $50,000. Many people bought dividend stocks trying to invest in “safe stocks” (none exist) so they would have some income when they retired.

      • mathmatters

        National sales tax rate would have to be absurdly high — well over 40%.

        There is a deception called “Fairtax” which sounds great and promises 23% rate, but that is based on over 1,4 trillion dollars paid by city and state governments. The city of Los Angeles, for example would owe 600 million dollars.

        That is OVER AND ABOVE the personal consumption tax, this is a separate tax — a second tier of taxation, that Fairtax has hidden in the fine print — but their spokesmen admit it.

        See http://fairtaxfineprint.blogspot.com/

        Without this charade of the government paying massive taxes, the national sales tax would be over 40%.

        A 40% sales tax would destroy consumer spending, which would force even HIGHER taxes.

        Just to replace income tax alone — you could do a 23-25% national sales tax, but we would still have FICA, cap gains, death taxe cap gains tax.

        • 20jan2013

          I appreciate what Ryan is doing, and I think this is one of the most well-written redstate articles I have ever seen. I agree with Horowitz down the line. However, the most glaring problem here is all the politicians in Washington, including Ryan and the establishment Republicans, want to fix the current system. Spending and debt have gotten so out of hand in Washington after having to put up with statist spending under Bush 43 and hyperstatist socialist debt freefall under Obama. We need a new system. We need the fairtax.

          The fairtax would replace all of those hidden taxes, not be in addition. The government could charge a lower rate while increasing revenue not only because lowering tax rates generally causes an increase in tax receipts from the positive effect it has on the economy, but also because tax would be captured at the cash register from those who have been and are continuing to dodge it: cheats, drug dealers, prostitutes, gamblers–members of the massive multibillion dollar economy. You can choose how much you want your government to tax you by buying that new appliance at Best Buy (taxed) or buying it used on craigslist (not taxed). The 40% figure was pulled out of a place handy to mathmatters where the sun doesn’t shine. What spokesmen admit what? Clever, clever try, but no cigar. “Admit” connotes guilt. You name no one. You quote no one. You provide a link that purports to be a representation of the fairtax, but the only source if you want the truth about the fairtax is to check it out for yourself at fairtax.org.

          Just because you keep repeating 40% and use the word “admit” and provide a random link to some lies to support your lies won’t change the fact that the fairtax is what we need.

          While Ryan’s proposal is a step in the right direction, the oncoming train demands a leap, not a step. An insufficient step in the right direction is still an insufficient step.

          I support Ryan’s proposal nonetheless, because it is not wise to make the perfect the enemy of the good. Much of it is compatible with repeal of the income tax and replacement with the fairtax.

          I am going to be optimistic and hope that this budget will provide a good starting point and a foundation on which to build true change, change that will address social security in exactly the way Horowitz advocated, and true tax reform. Anything less than the fairtax’s abolishment of the IRS is rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic.

          • 20jan2013

            *massive multibilliondollar UNDERGROUND economy

          • Finrod

            Just because you keep repeating 40% and use the word ?admit? and provide a random link to some lies to support your lies won?t change the fact that the fairtax is what we need.

            I couldn’t have said that better myself.

        • Doc Holliday

          Just like some other nations need to consume more and save less. People should not be taxed on income, it disincentivizes work and creativity. I think people would still buy things, you don’t?

          How much savings would we have if we abolished the IRS? How much savings if everyone, including illegals paid their share? How much savings if people repatriated dollars and companies moved back to the USA because we no longer have the largest corporate tax? How many people would not have their lives ruined trying to navigate a maze few IRS agents could do correctly? We know our politicians and rule makers cheat.

          • Diogenes314

            I think I hear Paul Krugman crying in the background as well.

          • MrMosis

            Awesome words Doc Holliday!

    • Finrod

      I seem to recall unemployment being 4.7 percent back in 2006, before Democrats took over Congress and sent us all down the road to Hades.

      • Death_of_the_Donkey

        we hit just under 5% (once again during an enormous bubble). Since Ryan’s GDP estimates are barely above the baseline (ie Obama’s), where does he come up with a 4% unemployment number, let alone the 2.8% in 2018.

        • Finrod

          But I don’t have anything to back that up other than just my opinion.

      • Diogenes314

        And we had a steadily shrinking (although too slowly) deficit and growing economy. No coincidence there.

        And that was with absurd amounts of spending.

    • taylerdog23

      Can anyone explain this? No one here seems to address this point. I’m having a hard time taking Ryan seriously out of the gate with a ridiculous number like this.

    • redinwash

      But he got his report from the Heritage Foundation and THEIR numbers are even more otherworldy. They’re so far into fantasy land that even Ryan didn’t use them and instead concocted his own.

  • KC

    The diary made the point that this proposal takes too long to balance the budget. I agree.

    While I applaud Ryan’s effort, I would like to see a balanced budget inside of 5 years. To that end, I want to see a balanced budget amendment somewhere in our future.

    Great diary.

    • carolina

      How much economic growth was assumed in these 10 year forecasts?

      • Diogenes314

        This was scored by CBO, which doesn’t take into account increased revenues from job growth.

        Which of course is just more good news.

    • Finrod

      The graph I saw over at Ace of Spades was of the debt, not the deficit– since the deficit is the first derivative of the debt graph, the point where the debt graph peaks and starts going down is where the deficit disappears. That appears to be within 5 years.

      It’s slightly complicated by the graph being against GDP which (usually) is a rising number, but still.

  • silentcal2012

    … he thinks.

    When is the Tea Party Express releasing its budget?

    • Doc Holliday
  • godrick

    He is suffering with crippling arthritis and COPD. What private insurer is going to offer him a policy?

    There is no profit in insuring older patients unless you charge A LOT for their premiums. What kind of spending cap are we looking at?

    This is the elephant in the room – Ryan might be arguing against waste and fraud, but at some point maximum efficiency is going to be reached, or nearly reached. What happens when the costs of caring for our elderly citizens exceeds what we are willing to pay out as vouchers?

    Will their still be a safety net, or do the taxpayers let some older patients go completely without coverage?

    The boomers ain’t going away.

    • carolina

      People on medicare already have to have a supplemental policy to get 100% coverage, and they have to pay for part D (prescriptions)
      By definition there is a TON of waste in the fed govt running of medicare. The private sector would be able to reduce the waste, fraud, and abuse compared to what we have now. I have no doubt of that.
      More details are needed, but savings should be easily achieved.

      • mathmatters

        There is a huge canard going around — just change it for those over 55.

        Do you have any idea that does not save a DIME?

        We sill have to tax like we do no — the FICA tax. The FICA tax we pay now, that is what pays for Social Securitty and medicare and medicaid.

        So almost all that expense WILL REMAIN.

        SO we would STILL have those taxes to pay. It saves some in 8 years or so, but does not save a dime now.

        So this whole “Oh, just change it for over 55″ is just a fundamental fallacy for money saving now.

        • osis

          “Mathmatters” has it right.

          The way to save social security is to increase social security deductions (payments into the program) for everyone. There should be no cut-off over a certain income amount. As with so many programs, the poor and the middle class are asked to pay, and the wealthy get a free ride.

      • 20jan2013

        What about when the 54 year olds are in godrick’s grandfather’s situation?

        This is a trick question, but one that needs to be answered honestly. Therefore I will answer it honestly and not as a politician trying to win votes: He is S.O.L.

        I’d rather he be S.O.L. under the conservative plan that at least fosters an environment that maximizes competitive efficiency and promotes the best medical care in the world than to be S.O.L. under a regime of socialized nanny state welfare health care. There will be a lot more “godrick’s grandfathers” otherwise.

        If you’re looking for a health care system with no unhappy endings, may I direct you to yonder rainbow? Ask the green wee man at the end of it to show you his plan.

        Kids and old people are going to die. It sucks, but that’s life. If we argue merits of policy proposals by case study then we should just cross post at HuffnPuff and Kosland. If you want as few kids and as few old people to die as possible, then you want to do everything you can to support what Horowitz is trying to promote here.

        • carolina

          year old is SOL. It all depends on the details of how they work out the program.
          Seniors have to pay $150 to $300/mo (depending on age) for their supplemental/prescription coverage now (if they want good coverage) ON TOP OF the $115/mo for medicare itself (2011 costs). There is no free lunch.

          • qurys

            Seniors in this state pay $70 for Medicare Advantage. In the state next door they pay $50. Includes prescription drug coverage. Lets not inflate the numbers to make a point.

        • carolina

          year old is SOL. It all depends on the details of how they work out the program.
          Seniors have to pay $150 to $300/mo (depending on age) for their supplemental/prescription coverage now (if they want good coverage) ON TOP OF the $115/mo for medicare itself (2011 costs). There is no free lunch.

        • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com;http://news.unifiedpatriots.com/ Beaglescout

          Depending on how many healthcare regulations can be removed, it may be possible for an alternative cure to be found. Arthritis is common and appears to be a lifestyle disease. If there is a cure (involving a change in lifestyle) that isn’t economically feasible to market now, then regulation reform may allow it to be economically feasible in the future. How does something become feasible economically? By putting profit back into the equation.

          Read The 4 Hour Body for some ideas on how to cure arthritis and similar conditions. There are sports medicine folks working at this issue today, because there are professional athletes in their 20s and 30s who are suffering from arthritis. If they can be treated and keep playing they can make millions. So they have a reason to find a *cure* for arthritis. But it’s the kind of thing that can’t be bottled and sold through pharmacies because it’s not patentable, or it requires trained and experienced therapists (which isn’t patentable either).

          COPD is definitely a lifestyle issue. Unfortunately smoking is dangerous. I’m not sure if it is curable. Emphysema isn’t curable either, and it’s much worse. What can you do about terminal diseases caused by past behavior? Pray and say you’re sorry. That may be about all you can do.

          • Diogenes314

            Wrong. And COPD is debatable.

      • redinwash

        any “waste” that is eliminated by private insurers is eaten up as profit and NOT passed on to the insured. Not tying increases in “vouchers” to increases in medical costs is guaranteeing a huge gap that seniors will NOT be able to afford.

    • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

      if you were to allow firms to offer very broad based policies across state borders that were simply catastrophic care with no special goodies thrown in. Those policies would be very cheap. Even to somewhat older people without pre-existing conditions.

      if you wanted the poor to participate in these policies, simply pay some or all of their premiums, it would still be a lot cheaper than what we have now, or Obamacare.

      Old folks already on the system, all you can do is try to limit costs through fiat. But for younger people you have to start soon in reforming the system. Real reform not Obamacrap.

      • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ dhorowitz3

        put, kyle. Your concise explanation obviates the contrived need for any further intervention in the health care sector. Also, if we are ever lucky enough to enact sweeping tort reform, there would be significant cost reductions on the “wholesale” level of HC. That would benefit everyone, including the chronically ill.

        Nothing would be free under a true free market system, but the cost would not be insurmountable for almost anyone. For the small percentage that falls through the cracks, we can easily set up a premium system that pays for it without destroying our entire HC system.

      • mathmatters

        Sorry what you describe is first of all, a lot like Obama care that you trash, without a big deductable.

        You simply ignore that 50% of the people over 50 have very substantial “preexisting ” conditions.

        You talk about paying the poor people’s premium. That is what Obamas health care is doing, essentially.

        Your “very cheap” policies for older people are a figment of your imagination, and have no basis in fact, AT ALL.

        • congressworksforus

          1. You are assuming that people will be better off under the existing system. When we run out of money they’ll have no healthcare at all; how will they be better off then?

          2. If people realized that the government isn’t going to baby them when they’re old, maybe they’ll take better care of themselves when they are younger…

          In fact #2 might be the real cause of the obesity epidemic…

          • Doc Holliday

            if medicare was not “free” health care would be a lot cheaper. I would say from my experience that most money spent by medicare is thrown down a rat hole. In fact the argument could be made that insurance itself causes extreme price inflation. In the old days doctors only got paid if the patient had the money to pay them.

          • osis

            We don’t need to run out of money

            The way to save social security and medicare is to increase social security deductions (payments into the program) for everyone. There should be no cut-off over a certain income amount. As with so many programs, the poor and the middle class are asked to pay, and the wealthy get a free ride.

          • acat
          • http://www.thejoyofreason.com Greg Garrison

            Obviously, you?re making this argument in jest, because only a complete doofus or a left-of-center “thinker”* would claim that the poor and middle class are overtaxed and the wealthy ?get a free ride?.

            Thanks for the laugh. It was sorely needed.

            * N.B. These sets overlap significantly.

        • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

          Working with private companies is NOTHING at all like Obamacare. Further, Obamacare does not eliminate the problems that cause high prices, like lack of across state risk pools, high tort costs, and add on forced benefits.

    • Doc Holliday

      not even Obama’s nationalized health care deals with people with alzheimer’s. They don’t get medicare no matter how much they paid in taxes. Medicare only pays for people with a specific hospitalization and recovery.

      the point is we are running out of money. The pyramid scheme went bust with the baby boom, medical advancements, government spending, waste, fraud, abuse, and the increased life expectancy.

      We can debate until we are blue, but someone is going to end up with the short end of the stick.

  • runner12

    I would like to see more cuts, especially to the many useless bureaucratic agencies. However, this is a great start and I commend Rep. Ryan for his work on this budget.

  • qurys

    As you read the above posts, which are a tiny fraction of the ideas floating around out there since Rep. Ryan released his budget, you realize the massive difficulty we are going to have getting anything passed. Its not a lack of good ideas. Its a lack of “best ideas”. There is probably a flaw or two….maybe more in everything. We get so stuck in the weeds over flat tax/fair tax/national sales tax. Pentagon spending/war spending. What’s in the budget/what’s not in the budget. Social seucrity means testing/raising the retirment age etc etc. I will go back to dhorowitz first paragraph…..”this is a mature and balanced plan”. He did not say perfect. There is not going to be a perfect plan. I don’t know about the rest of you but I am in this fight for fiscal sanity for our Country. That does not mean that every move will be the best move or a move with which I agree. It does not mean that every move we make will be a “cure-all” for the many ills we have legislativly instituted over the years. But if every move is a more prudent move, a move in light of the Constitution, a move aimed at restoring the free markets to those who participate in them and removing the Federal government from their grasp in every area of our lives, then the move is a good move. This will be a multi generational effort which I know I will not see come to fruition in my lifetime. But I will be danged if I will let conservatives, Republicans, Libertarians, whatever …fight over their pet ideas to win skirmishes and let the Progressives win the war.

  • kfwmcc

    We’re drowning in debt, and your main complaint is that we should repeal a tax on very rich dead people. That is indefensible when we are here in the context of this budget debate.

    In fact, if we had higher death taxes, that would encourage the wealthy to spend their money rather than sitting on it, which would obviously be beneficial to the economy.

    FYI – I say that as someone who might personally be impacted by the death tax, but it is clearly a sacrifice we need to accept.

    • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

      Wow. You’re not even good at it.

      • kfwmcc

        do you even disagree with what I said?

        • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

          insipid, pathetic and foolish comment.

          The REAL problem is not that the rich don’t pay enough, it’s that too many pay nothing. As in roughly 45% of the populace. And THAT is why government programs can grow unheeded. Too many people (and businesses) feed off the “government teat” and too few people have skin in the game.

          People who’ve earned their money have a right to keep it and to use it as they see fit, not as you think it should be spent. I would prefer an elimination of all business taxes (businesses do not pay taxes, their customers do) and a flat income tax at something around 15%. Everybody pays, no exemptions, no deductions and no credits.

          The only “sacrifice” we need to accept, would be the sacrifice of the services provided by a large swath of those employed by the federal government. Particularly, absolutely every employee of the Department of Education, every employee in the Department of Commerce and the Department of Energy, the vast majority of those in the EPA and the Department of Agriculture. For starters.

    • earlgrey

      I don’t care if you would personally be affeced by the death tax return or not, it doesn’t give you the right to decide for other people what they want to do for their kids, friends, etc.

      And what would you tell someone who followed all your advice and lived to a ripe old age only to find themselves destitute because they spent their money so the government doesn’t get it?

      Don’t you realize you are dipping your hands into the pockets of millions of people to dig out their hard earned already taxed once money? Doesn’t that make you feel like a louse?

      • kfwmcc

        Do you agree that we need any taxes at all?

        If so, where is a better place to tax than dead multi-millionaires fortune?

        • earlgrey

          That is where I woudl start. I won’t buy your argument that it is cruel. People who are getting a free ride are not going to vote in the best interest of the country as a whole. That leads us to where we are today.

          Your thinking is very old, out dated and immmoral.

          • kfwmcc

            FYI that 50% doesn’t may not pay federal income tax, but they pay sales taxes and state property taxes, social security taxes, etc.

            And remember, the taxes those 50% do pay are a much bigger negative impact to them, cause they do not have money to spare for the most part.

          • earlgrey

            It wasn’t always that we had 50% of the country not paying taxes. How did we make it then?

            Plus the sales taxes are high becasue state budgets are out of control. Government growth cuts into everyone’s standard of living and taxing the wealthy isn’t going to fix it. Instead there will be more money for well-meaning programs that turn into coprorate payoffs to the detriment of the rest of us.

          • acat

            You’re using “pay no tax” as a proxy for “have no income” and while true in some cases it’s not true for the majority of the 50%.

            You’re also precisely mistaken regarding property and sales and social security. Only the property owners – who are not living in section 8 housing – are paying property taxes, and only those who are working an above the table job are paying social security.

            Mew

    • osis

      The very rich have been paying this tax for years without any complaints. That’s because it’s fair.

      The wealthy now use the savings to pay gardeners and chauffeurs and invest the money overseas. There’s no benefit to the economy at all.

      Just another example of how the poor and the middle class are asked to pay for everything, and the wealthy get a free ride.

      • earlgrey

        that doesn’t excuse class warfare.

        50% of the country nearly doesn’t contribute to running the country. They are free riders and they won’t vote in the best interest of the country.

        • kfwmcc

          You accuse OSIS of ‘class warfare’ and then fire off a factless rant against the poor and the working class.

          • earlgrey

            if you don’t have skin in the game, than you aren’t going to make the effort to care.

            Too many people thiink they earn their benefits simply by pulling the lever for democrats.

      • acat

        The very rich have been avoiding the death tax, using every trick in the book including buying congresscritters to avoid it.

        Why do you think they give money to colleges? It’s not because they love higher education. Why do you think they pay for art museums and libraries? Hint – it’s for the TAX BREAKS.

        Mew

        • YnotNOW

          Exactly, acat. The “rich” do not want to give away so much to the government, so they find a way to avoid paying taxes. Charitable donations (which are a pretty benign method) are only one way. The more pernicious option is to hide money overseas, put it into trusts (i.e. the Kennedy Trust), and other ways to avoid IRS confiscation.

          This distorts economic decisions, and makes them LESS efficient, which makes the entire country poorer.

    • Joshua Persons

      “In fact, if we had higher death taxes, that would encourage the wealthy to spend their money rather than sitting on it, which would obviously be beneficial to the economy.”

      Because investing is the same as burning money.

  • svxpac

    When Dems object to the Ryan Budget, they need to be told, “Just Hush Up Now and Sign It! We Need to Pass It to See What’s In It!!”

  • pcyoung

    We formulate a fiscally conservative plan consistent with basic Conservative Tenets. For example: Subsidiarity –

    1) Federal Budget – review what federally subsidized projects can be turned over to the states. Currently states such as CALIFORNIA receive 299 billion from the Federal Government. Now this is money that comes from taxpayers in California and is then returned to the state with a 25% loss. States should be able to handle local issues such as education, Transportation, Housing etc. Mandate a date when these projects will be handed over to the state and money is no longer exchanged at a huge loss. Conceivably this can account for nearly a trillion dollars a year.

    2) Future spending moratorium – pending balanced Federal Budget. – no future projects can be funded based on money that does not exist or has no visible means of support. This also entails mandating that shuffling of funds not be permitted to provide funding for projects which are not on the books and permit continued slush funding.

    3) Balanced budget amendment – Further federal acquisition of funding from states ceases until a balanced budget can be submitted to Congress for approval with a standard quorum. Special provisions for voting with this 2/3 rd straight majority are not permitted.

    4) Freeze on wage increases for all elected representatives pending the submission and approval of a balanced federal budget at which time, raises which are scheduled into the budget will begin. In this case federal lawmakers will have earned this raise. It may not exceed 5% of existing salaries and no allowances for inflation.

    5) A reduction in corporate taxes and an evolution over 5 years into a simple flat tax. This tax rate shall be lower than existing taxes sufficient to take into account payment of salaries for new hires which is only applicable to domestic corporations and mandates manufacturing facilities within the continental borders of the United States.

    6) A domestic job growth clause mandates a review of existing taxes and regulations which are punitive for corporations willing to relocate facilities domestically. Prior to this a review board consisting of non- corporate officers for a fact finding to determine necessary conditions to stimulate corporate redeployment in the states to achieve a goal of less than 5% unemployed nationally by 2020.

    7) Form a new federal office – the office of Applied science, technology and manufacturing science It shall be a central repository to attain national and statewide convergence on requirements to reeducate, retool and regain our preeminence in all areas of engineering and science. Its primary function is to maintain focus and communicate progress on national goals for education and what is needed to regain global competitiveness. This office will set goals but not dictate how these are to be achieved which will be left to each local community. Measurement will be based on review of patents, growth in specific industries and level of attraction for expertise as well as salary and percent US graduates employed.

    8) the implementation of a flat tax and prevent inclusion into new legislation for special interests or otherwise subvert the tax structure for special interests. This will assist in reducing pressures exerted on legislators to appropriate funding and make such more transparent. It would eliminate the loop holes which currently stop monies from reaching the government to assist with the deficit. Similarly it would equalize taxation for companies,

    9) All financial institutions will be subject to anti trust and conflict of interest requirements precluding access to funding or manipulation of interest rates- federal reserve rates and or any treasury related functions of the government and these offices shall be subjected to over sight committees each and every year. Setting up a regulatory agency similar to the SEC for stocks. to monitor manipulation and fraud, misrepresentation. This oversight committee will be composed of elected officials which will be selected each new year for a term of no more than one year.

    These are some of the ideas that I am putting forth as a first cut to tackle fiscal issues facing this nation while working on rebuilding our country economically.

    Your feedback would be appreciated. I hope that an agenda similar to these points can become part of a unified Conservative party. We consolidate and subject our actions to a committee composed of the most trusted conservatives with the highest credibility to review for consistency with Conservative Principles and Tenets
    It has long been my position that we , as Conservatives, in our zeal and or haste, may not review our positions or statements for compliance with our own tenets and principles.
    One we establish this committee we can then work on generating a 10 year plan based on similar to those points I have raised above.

    Thank you very much for your time and consideration.
    We can win this fight!!!

    • electionwatch

      I like your idea of having a new federal office for applied science, technology, and manufacturing. I believe a Department of Science, Technology, and Manufacturing could possibly be temporarily to help our country get through these tough times and to help get businesses back on track by helping them with technology and manufacturing, while national and statewide governments could find ways to help get these aspects of our country back on track in the world.

      But, I would only do that if we can get a federal balanced budget, abolish the Departments of Education, Energy, and Housing and Uraban Development (HUD), and find other wasteful departments and programs we don’t need. i’ve read some proposals of abolishing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and give the states the health and human services priority, which I agree with. (Feedback to this and other new proposals are welcomed).

  • svxpac

    If there is a secession, I propose the San Andreaus Fault to be the new border between East California and West California; The East being conservative and the west being liberal. East California could borrow words of secession like:

    “When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. “