Why is Speaker Boehner abandoning Cut, Cap, and Balance for this new, so-called two-tiered plan? In what way is this plan superior to CCB, either politically or from a policy standpoint?
If Boehner’s rationale for repudiating CCB is that it won’t pass the Senate, thus forcing the dreaded default, which will supposedly be blamed on the GOP, then how does the new plan help? The Democrats absolutely will not pass a plan that resurrects the debt fight before the election. Boehner’s watered down plan won’t pass muster with Democrats, unless it raises the debt limit until after the election. So after the House passes this new plan, and the Senate summarily rejects it, we will wind up in the same predicament. GOP leaders will still shudder with trepidation from the approaching deadline. The only difference is that they will be forced to negotiate from a weakened position. In other words, the new Boehner plan will be the right goal post of the ensuing negotiations, engendering an opening for Democrats to push an even worse deal.
What about the policy virtues of this plan?
Boehner’s plan is being sold as one that upholds the principles of Cut, Cap, and Balance. The first stage of the proposal calls for $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending cuts over the next 10 years, in exchange for a $1 trillion increase in the debt ceiling. The plan would also impose spending caps, although the exact figures are still unclear. Finally, it would call for a vote on a balanced budget amendment by the end of the year, as a precondition for raising the debt ceiling.
The second stage, also tied to the initial agreement to raise the debt limit, would take the form of, you guessed it.. a debt commission, which would identify $1.8 trillion in additional cuts over 10 years, primarily from entitlement reform. Upon adoption of the commission’s cuts, the debt ceiling would be raised another $1.6 trillion next year.
There is one fundamental problem with the entire plan. Unlike the actual CCB plan, this proposal would hand the Democrat wolves the keys to the spending hen house first, while promising unverifiable and unenforceable cuts later. The bottom line is that once we return the federal credit card to the Democrats, they will no longer have any incentive to vote for a balanced budget amendment.
Under CCB, the passage of a balanced budget amendment is a pre-condition to raising the debt limit. Boehner’s plan would give them their candy first, as long as they agree to hold a vote on a BBA later – a vote that Republicans can force through procedural maneuvers anyway. In other words, we would never ensure that raising the debt limit will lead to a balanced budget. This idea is akin to the lousy deal that Boehner secured in April, in which he agreed to pass a relatively clean CR in exchange for a vapid Senate vote on Obamacare.
As for as the cuts and caps, this plan appears to rely on future congresses – that are not committed by the initial agreement – to set the caps. The Cut, Cap, and Balance plan would consummate those caps in the initial vote. Furthermore, it is unclear how much of the $1.2 trillion in first-step cuts would be implemented immediately. The Ryan FY 2012 budget resolution authorizes roughly $30 billion less in discretionary spending than estimated FY 2011 outlays (about $1.019 trillion). It is likely that this plan will still authorize more spending for FY 2012 than Ryan’s plan, and perhaps, only slightly less than FY 2011, thus obviating their leverage in the upcoming budget fight at the end of September. Cut, Cap, and Balance would buttress Paul Ryan’s budget – the budget that we were all supposed to support – by forcing the adoption of its FY 2012 budget authority through the debt ceiling.
The second tier of the plan, the 18th debt commission, is the most problematic. It is a double-edged sword of predictable failure. If the commission comes up with a good deal that implements free market entitlement reform without raising taxes, Democrats won’t be compelled to vote for it. If they come up with lousy reform, and or raise taxes, well.. the entire commission would have been a failure. Worse, we would be forced to raise taxes by a commission of our own making, or be called out for duplicity.
John Boehner would counter that in the event that we fail to get a prudent entitlement reform plan from the commission, we would deny the Democrats their next installment – the additional $1.6 trillion debt limit increase. The problem with this bravado is the same problem that has existed with every case of GOP budget brinkmanship. As long as GOP leaders telegraph the message that they fear a government shutdown, Democrats will call their bluff and force yet another short-term (or even long-term) debt limit hike. Why would anything change in 2012?
Conservative stalwarts like Jim Jordan and Jim DeMint have already categorically rejected the Boehner deal. This should tell the rank-and-file members all they need to know.
We need policy solutions; not political plans that aren’t even politically savvy.
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Dan Spencer
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Caleb Howe
Daniel Horowitz
Lori Ziganto
I want to hear more ab the Reid plan
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:12PM EDT (link)Boehner’s deal doesn’t sound as good as the Reid ‘supposed’ plan that is cuts for debt increases. It’s early and I haven’t gotten all the detail but that sounds better than the Boehner deal. If you could get 2.4 trillion in cuts for a debt increase with only controlling the house I’d take that deal and go home. The way to get cut cap and balance is to win the white house. I know all the conservatives think we can force it through but it’s just not realistic. Don’t throw bricks at me, we all know it. We can’t get everything without the white house and prob the senate and prob a few more in the senate to overcome filibusters. Then we can get CCB in and hope that the states can ratify it eventually.
I still am not sure why we can’t get some modest tax reform enacted, I think the markets and public would love it. Dems get some loopholes closed, Republicans get lower rates. Maybe not much on either end but a down payment on some tax reform would be nice.
I want to see some detail on the Reid plan to see how much of it is smoke and mirrors (prob all of it I know). The few details I am hearing sound too good to be true.
Smoke & Mirrors
tokm908 (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:25PM EDT (link)Reid saves a supposed $1T by the future draw-down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Otherwise known as ‘smoke & mirrors’. Both plans are a joke, we will be right back here debating next year’s increase if we adopt either one. The only real plan that has teeth is Cut-Cap-Balance. Our part of the compromise is raising the debt ceiling, its silly to accept that we need to give in MORE to make it a ‘fair’ deal. Giving in now, or getting behind the Reid/Boehner pro-debt plans will only solidify a downgrade of our debt and accelerate the destruction of our Dollar.
A SOLUTION would mean this would be the LAST increase to the debt ceiling ever. Do you see that coming out of the either the Boehner plan or the Reid plan? The ONLY plan that address’ the reality of this situation is Cut-Cap and friggen Balance.
When a man assumes a public trust he should consider himself a public property.
–Thomas Jefferson
Ya but CCB won't pass the senate
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:54PM EDT (link)As I look at the negotiation, both plans appear to be watered down as we’d expect though both seem to move in the Republican’s direction which is a good sign. I say that bc a week or 2 ago when the McConnell plan came out it looked like the GOP was caving. So now that Republicans have Dems cutting out tax increases and agreeing to cuts-only it seems like you could arm twist them into some real cuts at the 11th hour that aren’t all smoke and mirrors. If we could get some real cuts in FY12 that would be lovely.
What happens if we stick to CCB or bust?
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:07PM EDT (link)What would be the final outcome?
We bust
Paul Seale (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:48PM EDT (link)Which, in my view, is a very short term and irresponsible thing to do.
What happens if we stick to CCB or bust?
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:07PM EDT (link)What would be the final outcome?
We will
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:28PM EDT (link)force the issue and properly articulate that they are the ones who are forcing a default. If we offer them their credit card first, they will never be forced into anything.
Ya I wouldn't bet on it
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:34PM EDT (link)So already I am hearing that Reids cuts are all phony, not shocking I know.
Half of his cuts are from Iraq/Afghanistan drawdown savings. The rest are prob all ‘Waste, fraud and abuse’.
But this isn’t going to be a take it or leave it deal. And I doubt Boehner’s is either. The relatively good news is that we’re moving in the Republicans direction. Let’s see how far they can get it. My hunch is that we will feel exactly the same we did after the CR deal got done to keep the government operating.
Republicans will get a few cuts dragging the Democrats kicking and screaming but they will be ultimately way too small to make any conservative remotely happy.
We need 2012 to get things really moving.
The media will never cooperate
sarg01 Monday, July 25th at 7:34PM EDT (link)Truth does not matter. What matters is what the media tells “independents”, who don’t care enough about politics to examine the details.
Forcing the issue on CCB will result in us having to back down after giving Obama an excuse for the sorry economy in 2012.
How do you know CCB won't pass the Senate?
charlesmartel Monday, July 25th at 7:34PM EDT (link)The Dems won’t even let it come up for a vote – maybe Reid is scared that it would pass, and he doesn’t even want to take that chance. Why give up on the best plan that’s been put forward, particularly when everything else is, at best, a well-polished turd?
They voted it down already
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:39PM EDT (link)It’s already been defeated. I know conservative blogs think we can force it down the Democrats throat but it’s got ab as much a chance as Obama signing his own Obamacare repeal bill. Harry Reid is going to eventually succumb to some kind of a bill that has some cuts and he’ll have to talk a few Democrats into signing on as a way to prevent catastrophe they’ll say.
I felt like the govt shutdown showed us who has leverage and it’s only slightly in Republicans favor. That is the template for how things are going to go until 2012. If the Republicans had gotten some big cuts during the last negotiation we would be expecting alot more right now but sadly we’re seeing that you can’t run the show with only control of 1 house.
Nope
charlesmartel Monday, July 25th at 7:43PM EDT (link)They voted to table it, there’s a difference – disallowed any debate, which made it that much more difficult for the American people to hear what was actually in it.
All it would take would be three or four Democrats peeling off, scared of their constituents hearing that they’d voted against spending cuts and a balanced budget.
Yeah, it’s definitely a long shot, but it’s the right choice. Whatever happens, the MSM is going to do their best to paint it as a win for Obama. We might as well try to do the right thing.
Be truthful about it
Paul Seale (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:50PM EDT (link)CCB was tabled to kill the bill. Dems hated it and will do what ever they can to keep it there.
I love CCB, but it is DEAD for the moment. Win the Senate and Presidency in 2012 and make it issue number 2 to pass behind repeal of obamacare.
Unless someone can show how it is possible to resurect CCB, this is all academnic, unfortunately.
No clear thinking conservative thought CCB would be passed by the Senate
Spiral (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 8:05PM EDT (link)I don’t think any conservative who was honest with himself or herself really thought that cut, cap and balance would passed by a Democrat controlled Senate.
We no longer believe in Santa Claus and the tooth fairy. So, why do we believe that conservative legislation gets passed by a Senate dominated by the likes of Reid, Durbin, Boxer, Schumer, Sanders and the rest of those bums?
To be upset that Boehner and McConnell didn’t get CCB passed is sort of like me getting upset that Angelia Jolie hasn’t returned any of my letters or phone calls.
The Obama Bread Lines
I agree
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 11:06PM EDT (link)This line of thinking is one that will make ppl mad but look, you can’t bully everything through. The Democrats had a supermajority for a freaking year and they couldn’t get cap-and-trade or the public option through. Does that makes us all crazy? YES! Does it mean we’re going to do our darndest to get our own freaking supermajority in 2012. YES!
And look the Tea Party and the likes do help wield pressure and so Republicans are under much more pressure than they have been in the past to fight as hard as they can for real stuff like serious tax cuts. That’s great. And Eric has a lot of influence, so I like that he beats up Republicans.
But guys like me like to try to read the tea leaves and get a sense for what actually will happen and in that regard CCB just isn’t going to happen. I think the CR deal that passed a couple months ago already projected what will happen. Republicans have slightly more leverage than Democrats right now. So they can get some cuts, but it’s not going to be much at the end of the day. That’s what I’m seeing.
Reid
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:37PM EDT (link)Yeah, his plan basically cuts defense, assumes that the wars will end and counts such a natural occurrence as a man-made cut. Additionally, he uses rosy pictures of low interest rates to save money on debt payments. There is no entitlement reform or cuts to the OMS’s-other mandatory spending aka welfare. The rest of the non-security discretionary cuts come from unverifiable baselines that will never materialize.
Yup
jaykali (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:42PM EDT (link)Sounds like 100% phony cuts. But they are making concessions….so that is at least a positive sign (maybe a small one).
They’re next move is going to be yelling that Republicans are unreasonable to try to force the Republicans into looking extreme. They have already been doing this but they are going to try to make this stick to Republicans as holding everything hostage and making so-called concessions on revenues is their latest move.
The media will jump in with both feet in support of liberals. We’ll see how this thing unfolds.
I can't take it anymore
DerKrieger (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:21PM EDT (link)I’m fed up with Boehner and the rest of the mushy GOPers who refuse to fight tooth and nail against an aggressive Marxist. The Left has wanted to impose socialism on this country for generations and they now see their goal on the horizon if they can just get the debt cieling raised and Obama reelected. Meanwhile our team continues, year after year to fear victory. If this keeps going the direction the Left wants then I predict violence in the next decade. Taxpaying conservatives simply will not become wage slaves to the Left’s parasitic welfare state. Perhaps we’ll get lucky and split into two countries, one despotic and very liberal one and one that reinforces the Constitution and continues the grand experiment that is America. One thing is absolutely clear, Left and Right CANNOT live peacefully together.
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690
Totally agree.
d_lamar Monday, July 25th at 7:43PM EDT (link)It’s obvious from the information leaked out that neither side is interested in actually reducing the size of government. Nowhere in the negotiations has anything been mentioned about eliminating any programs, government departments, or subsidies.
I agree that this cannot last. The country is broke, and all the politicians are doing is talking about slightly slowing the increase in spending.
It may be time to start the dialogue about states seceding from this monstrosity of a federal government which apparently cannot be defeated at the federal level.
Call to remove Boehner
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:32PM EDT (link)He has already got the white flag out and coughrd up nearly everything the opposition was going to try to get.
I have a vote of no confidence.
We need him out of there now, immediately.
Can that be done?
"House Cleaning" Needed
quill67 (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:50PM EDT (link)John Boehner talks a good game on Rush’s radio show.
Lets compare his perfomance to that of the French in WWII. France’s biggest mistake is they thought they had build an unbreakable line and so when the Germans came from a direction they though iimpossible, it is at least understandable why they surrendered.
But even the French did not surrender BEFORE their lines broke. So why did he do it? I offer three explanations and at this point I do not know which to believe:
1) He is really a RINO (Would have rejected this out of hand last month)
2) He is afraid that the issue will turn against Republicans
3) He believes that the economy will be hurt if they fail to take action and does not want this to occur.
4) He believes that the next election is in the bag and no reason to do anything now that might reduce the chances of a Republican winning.
5) He is by nature someone who compromises. It is in his DNA and has no strong beliefs.
Regardless, it is time for a new speaker. This week.
This is worse than Obama's plan...
neoavatara (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 6:42PM EDT (link)…of doing nothing.
I know Boehner is trying his best, but this is garbage.
www.neoavatara.com/blog
Time before August 3 has run out anyways
jphamlore (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:09PM EDT (link)President Obama’s rejection of the one compromise plan that the Democrats and Republicans had cobbled together over the weekend means that it is very doubtful that legislation can actually be drafted, discussed, and approved by both the House and Senate in time for Obama’s signature by August 2. Let us pray that the resulting economic damage to the United States will not be any of the apocalyptic scenarios.
One must come to the regretful conclusion that delaying until the August 2 deadline had past was the plan all along.
The strategy to pass Obamacare was to do the opposite of what Clinton tried. It appears the current plan is to try and repeat what was considered to be a Clinton success.
We didn't pick the date.
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:14PM EDT (link)Geithner has changed it no less than 5 times, his latest thus far is August 10th.
For some reason, they feel that the pressure to hurry gives them an advantage. I am not sure what that advantage might be…
Only thing is, we should completely disregard it.
It can (maybe) pass the Senate
Freedoms Truth (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:12PM EDT (link)“In what way is this plan superior to CCB, either politically or from a policy standpoint?”
It can pass the Senate. Maybe.
Consider this: We KNOW that our position would NEVER pass the Democrat Senate. Why? Political gamesmanship requires face-saving. We hate our leaders to cave and so do they. So some compromise is required. So what NONESSENTIAL compromise is needed. If we give up on long-term items and focus on a win that cuts spending NOW, that is a win for us.
We’ve got a good portion of what we want if we have real and significant spending cuts in there.
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor – http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
Of all the things to cut..
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:20PM EDT (link)The only ones we hear about are the ones we like.
Not DEC, EPA, NEA or the thousands of agencies…
All we can do is brandish our voters cards at them.
That really scares ‘em.
This may pass the Senate, but I pray the house revolts against Boehner and firmly rejects both his and Reids plans.
So what happens if there is no deal? CCB sittin’ right there, on the table…
Exactly right. What matters is what is cut now
JSobieski (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 8:01PM EDT (link)All of these 10 year projections are silly, given the likely changes in DC that need to occur in 2013.
Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf
Marvelous, they get $1trill debt ceiling, we get to
johnt Monday, July 25th at 7:15PM EDT (link)chew our fingernails for ten years. Bet the powers to be won’t be waiting long for new increases in the ceiling.
“a man’s admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him”. Tocqueville
And meanwhile
charlesmartel Monday, July 25th at 7:38PM EDT (link)they take that brand new shiny credit card and use it to pay off all the folks they’ve had to stiff over the past couple years – maybe reconstitute ACORN under a different name, funnel some to the unions, beef up welfare/unemployment benefits – sounds like a great plan if we’re trying to lose in 2012.
These Democrats won't vote for a BBA regardless of incentives
sarg01 Monday, July 25th at 7:21PM EDT (link)I’m not convinced we could get 50 House votes or 20 Senate votes if we literally took the politicians hostage. It’s got no chance in this Congress.
Where does it say we gotta give them an option?
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:22PM EDT (link)Do we?
Huh?
sarg01 Monday, July 25th at 7:41PM EDT (link)We need 2/3rd votes of both chambers to pass any amendment to the Constitution*. Including the Balanced Budget Amendment.
That means we need the 47 Republican Senators, plus 20 lefties to get to the 67 votes.
* – without a Constitutional Convention, anyhow.
They say it is impossible for 2/3 of them to agree
snowshooze (Diary) Tuesday, July 26th at 3:43PM EDT (link)On the day of the week.
Over here at the torch and pitchfork club, we’d like to see the theory tested.
Good grief
clintonformccain Monday, July 25th at 7:31PM EDT (link)I’m not even a Republican and I don’t bad mouth the Republican congress-criters as much as ya’ll do. Sheesh. I don’t even think the wack jobs at DailyKos complain about the GOP as much as Redstate does!
Cantor on Kudlow: issue is enforcement
carolina Monday, July 25th at 7:34PM EDT (link)Kudlow likes the Reid plan fine, but finally agreed that the Reid plan is “business as ususal”. Boehner/Cantor plan is focused on getting enforcement of ‘real’ cuts including entitlement reform – and not just kicking the can down the road.
Cynically I can see why the GOP wants these issues addressed under a dem POTUS.
I have a concern that the Reid (McConnell) plan is an easier sell to the public at large. The business community wants the deal done, without another revist next spring for part 2. The GOP wants a second debt raise debate as a mechanism to ENFORCE real cuts and entitlement reform.
Kudlow still prefers the Reid plan.
I don’t think the public is ready to address entitlements. We need to cut everything else first and see what kind of economic growth we get before we get into entitlements.
I fear if the GOP pushes too hard too soon….. that it will hurt us in 2012. However, I know we really need to cut govt spending. A lot of people agree, though some don’t want to risk any entitlement they receive. All of this just increases my anger about the $trillion WASTE of our tax $$ by the ‘stimulus’ that was used to pay public unions. Public unions will never recover from taking that money. They are detested.
We all KNOW what is going to happen..
melbedewy (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:35PM EDT (link)The markets will drop 600 points and enough Republicans will adopt the Cut and Run, Quiver and Kneel bill.
Guarun-Teed
It is time for the GOP to have a broader, more visionary strategy
gawken (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:45PM EDT (link)Nothing acceptable to the GOP will ever get through the Senate.
So, OK.accept it.
We have the House. We will keep the House in 2012.
We will have the Senate in 2012.
We have a pretty good chance at the WH in 2012.
So, sit on ourr hands..make the Dems cave…dare Obama to veto.
I want to know how to revive CCB
Paul Seale (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 7:55PM EDT (link)We all know and love CCB – but I want a serious discussion how you get Democrats, who hate it with every fiber, to resurrect it and pass it.
Does the country stay “in default” until 2013 until we get a new president and senate?
It is not very fair to keep trying to push CCB as the ONLY method to accomplish our means. There are other, far less palatible solutions which can achieve our means (like Gang of Six or increasing taxes).
This is why I believe we should get the best possible deal (no taxes, real cuts) and work hard to win in 2012.
We wont win by cutting each other down in primaries and third parties by wasting energy and much short on hand cash fighting each other – which is the direction I see us going.
That's IT!
tea4me Monday, July 25th at 7:56PM EDT (link)Boehner has to be primaried. Or a Dem voted in. I grew up in his district and I’m contacting all my family and friends that still reside there.
He needs to be replaced no matter who replaces him
Speaker of the House?
Next one in!
No matter who?
clintonformccain Monday, July 25th at 8:03PM EDT (link)If Republicans invest all their efforts in defeating Republicans, then you might well get your wish. Nancy Pelosi could replace Boehner as Speaker of the House. It’s easy to forget what it was like, just a year ago, when the the Dems controlled both chambers.
Deal breaker in the Boehner plan
Kyle-MI (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 10:20PM EDT (link)If I am hearing and understanding correctly, the Boehner plan has a provision similar to the McConnel plan that allows Obama to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally unless there is a vote from congress to stop it. Does anyone in their right mind think that congress will stop Obama from unilaterally raising the debt ceiling if it gives him this power?
The other slightly less small problem I have with the Boehner plan is that it is too complicated. Can’t someone give these folks an engineering 101 course? Keep it simple stupid (k.i.s.s.) is still an important rule of thumb. Just pass a simple short term debt extension bill will accompanying spending cuts (whatever cuts we can get past the Senate).