Telling the Truth About Medicare


We must end the vicious cycle of third-party payer and rising healthcare costs

By far, our largest unfunded liabilities are Social Security and Medicare.  According to recent actuarial reports, Medicare faces a $25 trillion liability and Social Security has an unfunded liability of $21 trillion.  And those numbers are regarded as low-ball figures, due to their unrealistic accounting for cost-cutting measures.  They already represent the largest expenditures of the federal government, with Social Security and Medicare consuming 20.2% and 14.6% of the budget respectively.  Those numbers are slated to skyrocket as the retirement population doubles over the next three decades.  Hence, any meaningful discussion of balanced budgets must include a plan to fix these two entitlement behemoths – brought to you by previous Democrat presidents.

The first step to entitlement reform must include an acknowledgement of the dichotomy between the two largest programs.  Social Security and Medicare are very different programs.  Consequently, they face divergent problems and require dissimilar solutions.

Last week, healthcare expert Christopher Conover posted an analysis at the American Enterprise Institute, illustrating the differences between Social Security and Medicare.  He found that while most people (except low-income earners) receive Social Security benefits that are roughly commensurate to their contributions from the 12.4% payroll tax, the same cannot be said of Medicare benefits.  The average Medicare recipient, according to Conover, received $2-$6 per every dollar paid into the system via the 2.9% Medicare tax.  Moreover, the only people who earn all of their Medicare benefits are those earning an average of $130,000 a year over their entire career – the very people who will see a payroll tax increase under Obamacare.

The two entitlement programs must be addressed with honest solutions, albeit with drastically different approaches.  Social Security is very simple.  It is not an entitlement program.  With the exception of low-income earners, most people receive less than the aggregate contributions paid into the system, when the expectation for reasonable interest returns is factored in.  Social Security is a mandatory Ponzi scheme that offers lousy returns, taxes some of those returns, and commandeers those returns from the estate of a deceased recipient.

Accordingly, people who decry attempts to cut Social Security by using the rallying cry, “it’s my money,” are absolutely correct.  It is their money – and if they were given an opportunity to invest that money in private accounts, they would be able to retire comfortably and enjoy a better rate of return.  Thus, a gradual move towards private accounts is the way to go.

Medicare, as Mr. Conover observes, is a very different challenge.  Not only is Medicare, as it’s currently constituted, a burgeoning budget-busting entitlement program, it is the most prominent market-distorter amongst the plethora of market distorting programs Democrats have injected into the healthcare system over the years.  This open-ended third-party program has engendered a self-fulfilling cycle of unaffordability into the healthcare system.  Its very existence has raised the cost of care to the point that very few people can afford to retire without it.  To that end, unlike with Social Security benefits, Medicare recipients lack the ability to say (they say it anyway), “give me my money back, and I’ll take care of my own healthcare.”

The bottom line is that the aggregate savings from the 2.9% Medicare payroll tax and the premiums for retirees are insufficient to pay for today’s healthcare costs – costs that were spiked by the counterintuitive nature of third-party open-ended payments.  This is how liberals have distorted the costs of healthcare and created dependency over the past few decades.  Whatever is left of free-market healthcare after Medicare, Medicaid, VA, SChip, and all the mandates on private insurance – will be decimated by Obamacare.

While the ultimate goal of any Medicare reform must be the same as Social security reform; less dependency and empowering individuals, we must first lower healthcare costs by fixing the entire system.  The way to lower direct healthcare costs is through malpractice reform.  The way to lower the cost of health insurance, and by extension, actual healthcare costs, is by reinstating the free market into the health insurance industry.  That will necessitate reforms that help peg services and healthcare usage with actual costs.

Being that Medicare is the biggest driver of healthcare costs, it should be the biggest priority on the agenda of reformers.  Medicare must be transformed from an unlimited third-party payer system to one that empowers the individual to buy his/her own insurance with the payroll tax funds that are commensurate to the cost of the plan.  Either a direct voucher system or Paul Ryan‘s premium support plan would fit the bill.

Other reforms should include the following: expansion of tax free HSAs, removal of anti-free market mandates and one-size-fits-all mandates on insurance companies, block granting Medicaid to the states and allowing them to use funds to covert Medicaid and SChip to private insurance vouchers, converting VA benefits to vouchers for private insurance (but supplement all extra costs), and eliminating the tax incentive gap between employer-based insurance and personal insurance.  The last reform would involve either the elimination of the employer tax exclusion for health insurance, or the extension of that deduction to individuals who buy health insurance.

All of these reforms will have the effect of creating downward pressure on healthcare costs, while concurrently restoring the concept of health insurance to its original purpose – long-term protection; not a third-party market-distorting payment system.  Only these free-market reforms will lower healthcare costs to the extent that the payroll taxes would, for the most part, cover the medical costs of retirees.

In order to achieve these reforms, the next president will have to eloquently tell the truth about Medicare to the American people.  These free-market reforms will lower the cost of healthcare for everyone; however, future retirees will have to pay a reasonable, albeit higher price for their healthcare than they do under the current system.  As long as people are misled to believe that they pay for every cent of the current Medicare system, such reforms are untenable.  The next generation of retirees must understand that they are paying less than 50% of their Medicare benefits, a reality that is unsustainable.  They must come to realize that nothing in life is free, certainly not the best healthcare system in the world.  We all know those people who complain about paying even a $20 co-pay for medical care, while blithely shelling out hundreds of dollars for car repairs.  If we continue to seek the best healthcare for free, we will become free of the best healthcare system in the world.  We simply don’t have the money.

While it is impossible to continue a system in which we enjoy the best healthcare for free, the next best option is a system that is reasonably affordable.  There is only one panacea for our healthcare ailments; free-market reform – along with veracious leaders to champion the prescription.


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25 Comments Leave a comment

It was actually a revelation to me

kestrel (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 4:30PM EDT (link)

that many people (all union?) have had no medical co-pays. Only through learning about public employee unions bankrupting states and municipalities, did I learn that I not only pay my own co-pays out of pocket, but I also pay the co-pays (and more), of a multitude of public employees who pay nothing or next to nothing for their medical care.

There are public employees who understand that this cannot go on. These people greatly earn my respect. If you could fill a whole school with these “old-fashioned” non-entitlement-mentality teachers and employees, the waiting list of kids to attend that school would be a mile long.

 

Still Time to Prevent Hard(er) Choices

quill67 (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 5:13PM EDT (link)

According to CBO, our budget would actually have a surplus in 10 years IF Medicare costs per recipient stay the same. That is right—even with the increased number of recipients we can balance the Federal Budget.

Right now this is not projected to be the case and this leads to deficits in the perhaps 100 Trillion range over next 30 years. But if we enact market reforms, we can innovate ways to not just keep costs from going up but to actually LOWER costs.

Start with the costs of doctor’s offices filling out paperwork. Studies estimate a 1/3 of medical costs are simply paperwork costs. I spoke with an owner of a Pediatric network and he stated his costs were 1/2 his costs. Liberals believe these paperwork costs would be reduced by government but when has government paperwork ever been easier than private sector paperwork?? They point to Medicare as having the lowest administrative cost per recieipient but they ignore that estimates of fraud in Medicare are more than $60 billion per year.

A high deducatable plan might work wonders for Medicare. Many employers find that they are able to reduce employee contributions by more than the high deductible. In my case, our health insurance is $360 less per month than standard deductible for only a max $1500 individual/ $3000 family high deductible. That’s right. I save $3600 per year and at worst I will only have to pay $3000 out of pocket.

Why is the rate so much different? Well, it turns out cliams are much lower with a high deductible plan so insurance companies do not have to pay out as much. Why? Because when people pay for any trip to the doctor, they are more seletive about when they go. By the way, the company also saves money.

Currently Medicare pays on average $15,000 per recipient. What if we payed each recipient a fixed amount each year, say $10,000 per recipient, but they would be responsible for the first 10K of any medical treatment. I bet a lot of money could be saved.

 

Means Test Social Security

mkozikowski (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 5:38PM EDT (link)

If we means test Social Security, we could cut the payouts by 50% or more.

And, once it is means tested, we can see that is it actually more like Welfare. If we can accept the similarity, we can then drop Social Security completely.

After all, do we really need two systems to cover the same problem?

This will make life much simpler. You either need social support or you don’t.
If you don’t, you live on what you have. Otherwise, after completing the means tests, you can live comfortably on Welfare.
All we have to do is get people to forget about the stereotype.

SSI

Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 6:24PM EDT (link)

and don’t forget that we already have SSI for poor seniors.

With that said, I am against means-testing SS. As i noted in the article, for SS, unlike Medicare, people already receive less than what they contributed factoring a reasonable interest rate. Taking away more of that money is stealing and pure socialism. I’m more open to means testing Medicare benefits because, as this report suggests, that is already more of a “welfare” program.

Means testing is scam

tooncesthecat (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 10:12AM EDT (link)

This is just another scheme to redistribute income by “confiscating” the contributions of “wealthier” Americans. I am disappointed that even some conservatives like Paul Ryan are considering this “fix” for Social Security. The real way to fix social security (although counterintuitive) would be to significantly reduce the cap on taxable income to say $50,000 per year. This would reduce the payout for the system by over 50%. It would also restore social security to the social safety net that was intended. Instead of setting up government-controlled personal savings accounts (as Herman Cain would do), workers and employers would be free to make their own choices regarding retirement savings above the $50,000 cap and would have 12.4% more money to work with.

“Obama’s Last Day” @ www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com

 
 

Means test?

spolson Tuesday, November 1st at 4:26PM EDT (link)

How about a contribution test like we have for the Illegal Aliens don’t have to pass. They didnt pay in so, they are an undeserving not contributer.

 
 

Excellent.....

actuarius (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 6:55PM EDT (link)

Your diary fully captures the differences between Social Security, Medicare, and true entitlements and the ramifications that ensue.

The answer is in your diary, and more. The way to get back to free market in health care and insurance is to put the power to decide and the financial responsibility for those decisions in the hands of the patients and the physicians.

De-fund, repeal, and replace the abomination that is ObamaCare.

 

2 party payor system

pknag Monday, October 31st at 7:48PM EDT (link)

See www.paythedoctor.com

 

EXCELLENT analysis

hgstern Monday, October 31st at 9:55PM EDT (link)

And one which deserves wider distribution.

A couple of additional points:

1) “Medicare recipients lack the ability to say (they say it anyway), “give me my money back, and I’ll take care of my own healthcare.”

This is only 1/2 true: one may, in fact, opt out of *receiving* Medicare benefits. There are two problems with this. The fist is, as you noted, one has then thrown away all those Medicare tax dollars. Worse, one then becomes *ineligible* to receive Social Security payments, as well (http://insureblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/poms-and-obamacare.html)

2) “expansion of tax free HSAs”

Not many know that the last go-’round of Medicare legislation (the one that brought us Part D) also included a “slot” for Medicare HSA plans. Unfortunately, not a single carrier expressed any interest in offering such a plan.

3) Quill notes that ObamneyCare© proponents will “point to Medicare as having the lowest administrative cost.”

Yes, they will, but they will be lying: because Medicare is geared toward an elderly demographic, with correspondingly large claims costs, it generates significantly higher expenditures than private insurance plans, thus making administrative costs smaller as a percentage of total costs. This creates the appearance that Medicare is a model of administrative efficiency. What [its claimants see] as a “miracle” is really just a statistical sleight of hand. [cite available upon request]

As I said, GREAT post – Thanks for sharing it!

Medicare is

Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 11:02PM EDT (link)

ostensibly forced, as you noted. They will steal your social security money if you decline. Also, it is impossible for most people to afford senior healthcare thanks to the current self-perpetuating cycle of third-payer driver high costs.

With HSAs, a lot will change if we leveled the tax code between individuals who purchase insurance and employers.

"With HSAs, a lot will change if we leveled the tax code"

hgstern Monday, October 31st at 11:27PM EDT (link)

Not so much: contributions to accounts linked to HSA-compliant insurance plans are already tax-advantaged for both individual and employer-sponsored plans.

As you mentioned, leveling the tax playing field regarding *premiums* (regardless of product design) between individual and group plans would be a major advantage.

Of course, we already know how this will play out (or rather, not): the tax advantages granted group plans are a remnant of the Second World War, and they are “baked in the cake.” It would be nice if those advantages were bestowed on individual plans, as well (Section 105 notwithstanding), but I just don’t see a path to victory for that.

Certainly hope I’m wrong, of course.

Think public sector and union plans, hgstern.

acat (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 11:36PM EDT (link)

Right now, those are the two largest segments where zero-out-of-pocket plans still exist.

Change that, even if just requiring a $1k per covered person per year deductible plus an HSA, and see what happens.

As for group-vs-personal, the problem right now is that insurance companies sell to companies, not people, because they want to rope whole existing groups into “pools”, not build pools.

If we “un-bake the cake” by making corporate (or .. union or government-payroll) -paid insurance premiums taxable with a $5k deductible, as Cain proposed, perhaps insurance companies will start looking for other groups – churches, community theater troupes and their subscribers, bowling leagues…

Just throwin’ it out there.

Mew

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self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

*You* think about them...

hgstern Tuesday, November 1st at 12:08AM EDT (link)

While I sympathize with your sentiments, my interest is in the insurance-related portions of Mr H’s post. And you’re not going to get to $1k deductible (let alone *really* high deductible) plans in the public sector without a massive political shift.

Would love to see that happen, of course…

“As for group-vs-personal, the problem right now is that insurance companies sell to companies, not people…”

That’s not the problem.

“If we “un-bake the cake”

Again, this is just not a credible alternative under our current system, let alone when ObamneyCare© takes full effect. While I admire Mr Cain, his “solution” is not terribly credible, let alone practical. Perhaps if he understood how health insurance actually works…

(And please spare me the “he ran a successful company” rejoinder – we both know he never had any hands-on experience re: employee benefits)

“churches, community theater troupes…”

Why do you believe that this is not the case now? I have several churches – heck, even a cemetery – as clients.

Okay hgstern, then what do you propose? Doing nothing?

acat (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 9:43AM EDT (link)

I will point out, by the way, that you are mistaken.

Indiana has put deductibles and HSAs into effect for all State employees. Thank Gov. Mitch Daniels for that.

The problem remains that insurance companies do not sell to individuals. They sell to organizations, mostly companies.

Let’s discuss those churches you work with – is health coverage limited to employees of the church, or can members of the church join the plan as well? If not, why not? Do you see the difference that could happen if that changed?
\
Mew

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self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

Please don't put words in my mouth...

hgstern Tuesday, November 1st at 1:56PM EDT (link)

The point of Mr H’s post was to elucidate some some of the problems we currently face, and potential solutions to them. I share my own take on these at my own blog; I don’t feel comfortable threadjacking his.

“Indiana has put deductibles and HSAs into effect for all State employees.”

Of course you are correct, and I even blogged (favorably) on it at the time. But that really just reinforces my point: the Indiana program has been in place for almost two years, and not a single other state has followed suit.

“The problem remains that insurance companies do not sell to individuals”

You’re still wrong, you know.

More than 50% of my client base is individual plans.

And most carriers have both individual and group departments.

“is health coverage limited to employees of the church…”

You really don’t get it, do you?

*Group* plans are sold to, wait for it….groups.

There are, of course, association plans, but these tend not to do well (cf: MEWA). There are multiple reasons for this, but the most important is adverse selection.

“Do you see the difference that could happen if that changed?”

No.

Please enlighten me.

Do not make false accusations, hgstern.

acat (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 8:45PM EDT (link)

It tends to be seen as unsociable.

Your practice, being blunt, does not matter. I’m happy that you’re able to make a living so I don’t have to carry you as well as the other welfare recipients but .. your business is a distraction to the conversation.

Answer this. What percentage, not in your practice but nationwide, are covered by group plans? What percentage, again nationwide, are covered by individual plans?

Do you begin to see why I say that insurance companies sell to corporations?

Hell, your business model consists of the insurance company selling to you, not to me.

The McCain plan to make insurance premiums paid by the employer taxable as regular income (with a deduction) would have encouraged employees to consider alternatives because it hits them in the wallet. Right now, it’s invisible.

Especially to the 100% paid for plans that unions and government employees enjoy.

That no other State has followed Indiana isn’t surprising. It’ll happen, but State employees are unionized, so it has to be negotiated.

One reason I was hoping we’d hear more from Daniels is that it’d get the citizens of other States asking their reps why they can’t duplicate Indiana’s approach.

Mew

——
self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

90% of Transactions--Insurance Free

quill67 (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 12:59AM EDT (link)

Insurance is supposed to be for the unexpected financially overwhelming event—not regular medical expenses. While the average cost per Medicare recipient is $15,000, the bottom 90% only cost an average $3900 (Kaiser Foundation).

Medicare fraud accounts for $60 billion in waste each year. This is $2000 per recipient! Most fraud occurs on low dollar transactions because it is easier to hide, If the Medicare only covered after the first $2000, much of the fraud could be eliminated. So send each recipient $2000 and expect them to cover the first $2000 of medical expenses. This would pay for itself and would save money because on the first $2000, Medicare recipients would be very mindful of how they spent THEIR money.

Where did you get the $15,000 per recipient?

actuarius (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 10:43AM EDT (link)

According to the 2011 Medicare Trustees Report (https://www.cms.gov/reportstrustfunds/downloads/tr2011.pdf), the average benefit per enrollee is $11,762 (see table II.B1 – Medicare Data for Calendar Year 2010 on page 9).

Also, looking at the average cost per enrollee tells you nothing about whether the insurance was used for unexpected financially overwhelming events. One hundred enrollees, each having a cost of $1,000 has the same average cost as one enrollee having $100,000 cost and the rest having zero.

The idea of changing the form of Medicare to a high deductible plan with an HSA, even if the HSA is paid by the taxpayers is a great one. It will transfer the responsibility to the patient for modest expenses that aren’t really insurance.

De-fund, repeal, and replace the abomination that is ObamaCare.

$15,000 is Wrong. ..Recalled Projected Numbers

quill67 (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 5:15PM EDT (link)

You are correct. My $15,000 figure is way too high. I recalled number from memory and was thinking of down year projection. The CBO officially estimates that Medicare expenditures will be $1038 in 2020 and there will be 61 million recipients. That works out to $17016 per recipient.

Thanks for catching my error. I will not trust memory again (I was in hurry)

 
 
 
 

Mr. Horowitz, sir,

lineholder (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 11:13PM EDT (link)

when you get around it (as if you don’t have enough to do), could you possibly go into the same kind of explanation regarding the implications that 16 million person expansion of Medicaid is likely to have our nation financially, and what kinds of options we have in addressing this program? I read the Harvard economist report in response to the CBO analysis, and it doesn’t sound good.

Medicaid

Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Tuesday, November 1st at 8:14AM EDT (link)

Yes-we definitely need to up the ante on Medicaid reform because it is actually the most politically doable of the three major programs. One thing is to transform it into a direct subsidy like food stamps. In this case, you would give them a voucher to purchase private healthcare insurance. While real conservatives don’t believe in the entire premise behind some of these programs, but to the extent that they should exist, it is actually better to give a direct handout than create an insurance program that runs parallel to the private market. A direct voucher to purchase private insurance would distort the market much less than the current Medicaid system.

 
 

Ryan's Premium Support Plan

sceesq Tuesday, November 1st at 8:47AM EDT (link)

For one, Ryan exposes GOP dementia of yet additional means-testing such support (i.e., even further punishing those who paid the most during their working lives). He does do so in a big way, but contunual gradula INCREASE in such means-tesring only encourages Progresssives. Conservatives must demonstrate discilpline and demand a REVERSAL of current means-testing (a rough guess is that it raises only about 5% more dollars and would thus require aabout a 5% increaser in non-means-tested premiums. It aggravates the payors and encourages the takers.

Further, I believe the GOP should demonstrate a principled approach and layout a 30-40 year roadmap of getting the federal govt completely out of the health care, pension and welfare businesses, (these are not powers granted to the federal govt by the CONSTITUTION.

 

I don't Want The Government In Anything

carolynr Tuesday, November 1st at 12:09PM EDT (link)

I am one of these people that just pay into the Medicare and the Prescription Drug Program FOR NOTHING. I am grateful that I am not sickly. However, I would rather have a voucher, wherein I pay the difference or a deductible or something like that than having the Federal Government and some panel decide whether it is time for me to live or die. I hate this Obamacare…I am already feeling the results of it. Hubby and I will be paying $500 a month for medical insurance. However, we are on fixed incomes, we’ve saved money…but should he go to the hospital…our savings are wiped out and we’re on Medicaid…and which point…they deny him coverage or we can’t find a doctor…what is the use…Dr. Kavorkian to the rescue. We did the right thing all our lives. Now we have to pay for Solyndra…we have to pay for all this spending without Congressional oversight and yet…what do we do. The Republicans had some good ideas concerning healthcare…they were locked out of the rooms. I’d like to see private insurance companies back in the business of insuring people…even older people. I’d like to see people who have taken care of their health be given a break on the premiums. I’ve worked at being healthy…shouldn’t that count for something?????????

 

My money

spolson Tuesday, November 1st at 4:22PM EDT (link)

My social security benefits come from a contract that the federal Government made with me by force. If they try to get out of the contract while they are giving my money to foreign nations, illegal aliens or people who didn’t contribute to the plan. They are committing treason. They are already betraying the American populations by giving benefits to Aliens who have contributed nothing while our benefits are metered out based on what we contributed. That is treason and betrayal.

 

Surprisingly....

lastgopinillinois (Diary) Wednesday, November 2nd at 12:47AM EDT (link)

No one here has talked about having FICA put into an “untouchable” lock-box separate from the general fund, as part of the reform. It would need to include a provision that prohibits expenditures from the “funds” in excess of what is actually in the coffers. Thus, the programs would need to be monitored for solvency, and adjustments would need to be made, when necessary, to keep the programs solvent.

If these entitlements had been handled that way in the first place, we might not be in this mess now. For those who didnt know; when SS was introduced in 1935, the program was originally going to be voluntary, AND it was going to be in a separate “trust fund”. A real trust fund, NOT the imaginary one that most people STILL think exists.

In the beginning, God created earth to be an extension of his vast Kingdom and his LOVE was so great that he wanted to share it with man, whom he created in his own image and likeness and gave him free will.
To this very principal, the Founding Fathers of our nation decreed that freedom is a God-given in-alienable right of all the people.