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Don’t Fall Into Democrats’ Payroll Tax Trap

As the original 2% payroll tax cut for employees is set to expire next month, Democrats are proposing an even bigger cut.  Earlier this week, they introduced legislation (S.1917) to cut the payroll tax to 3.1 percent for employees, and for employers on the first $5 million of their payroll.  The bill would also eliminate the payroll tax paid by employers for the last quarter of 2011 and all of 2012 on the first $50 million of a company’s increased annual wage costs.  In order to pay for it, they are proposing a “surtax on millionaires,” which applies a 3.25 percent tax on modified adjusted gross income over $1 million, or $500,000 for a married individual filing separately.

Even though this cut will discard 38% of the annual revenue for Social Security, Democrats are accusing opponents of supporting a tax increase on “working families.”  For their part, most Republicans have only voiced opposition to the tax hikes, but shied away from assailing the very premise of a temporary payroll tax cut extension.  In fact, Senator McConnell told reporters yesterday, “In all likelihood, we will agree to continue the current payroll tax relief for another year, but we believe it should be paid for.”  He has yet to divulge how they would pay for it.  Kudos to Senator Jon Kyl for uprooting the entire premise behind Democrats’ rationale by noting that this cut has not been pro-growth and it has only further endangered the future of Social Security.

Republicans must show how it is the Democrats who are treating Social Security like a Ponzi scheme by indiscriminately marauding it, while paying out the shortfall with deficit spending, in addition to tax hikes.  Payroll taxes supposedly singlehandedly fund Social Security, yet Obama and the Democrats plan to cut 38% of its revenue source with this bill, even though SS already faces a $50 billion shortfall.

Republicans should force Democrats to answer the following questions:

1)      If temporary payroll tax cuts are so stimulative, how do you explain its failure to create jobs in 2011?  Why will 2012 be different?

2)      If allowing the payroll tax cut to expire will engender a “downright scary” impact on the larger economy, as Harry Reid has suggested, then how scary will it be when the Bush tax cuts expire?

3)      If we can forego the revenue to Social Security for two years, how much longer will we continue extending the payroll tax without regard to Social Security?  Why not extend it indefinitely, which will, at least, provide some pro-growth stimulus.  Why not eliminate it completely?

4)      Last year, the payroll tax reduction necessitated $105.4 billion in general revenue transfers to Social Security, while this year’s plan will require an additional $265 billion.  Does that reflect the accounting of a pay-as-you-go system or a Ponzi scheme?

5)      Why not repeal the Medicare payroll tax?  Isn’t that also a burden on “the working class?”  We’ll just borrow more money or tax the rich to pay for Medicare benefits.  Also, the 18.4 cent federal gasoline tax is another regressive tax on the “working class.”  Why not cut that tax for a year or two?  What will happen to the Highway Trust Fund?  We’ll just enact permanent tax increases on the rich to pay for this temporary cut.

6)      Should the rich be responsible to pay for everyone else’s Social Security?  If so, why should anybody but the rich ever have to pay taxes that are earmarked for specific services?  And if the rich should pay for current SS, why not divert the funds to private retirement accounts instead of the vapid SS Trust Fund?  Why is this scheme less objectionable to the left than private accounts?

This is our opportunity to not only oppose tax increases, but to use their own arguments to push entitlement reform.  It’s an opportunity to call out Obama for his duplicity on Social Security by showing how he refuses to allow us to keep our payroll taxes in secure personal accounts, but has no qualms about eliminating them altogether.

While extending the payroll tax cut sounds appealing even to many conservatives, such a move would necessitate tax increases or more deficit spending.  Republicans say they will pay for it with spending offsets; however, that would require at least $115 billion in additional cuts for 2012 (not just over 10 years), a proposition that Democrats would never support.  Hence, once we cede the premise that the Social Security tax cut must be extended, we lose all leverage to push for spending cuts.  Instead, Republicans will fight the tax increases and settle for a deal that simply increases deficit spending.

Let’s go on offense instead of being cornered into supporting the wrong tax cut for the wrong reason.

COMMENTS

  • tibbstaichou

    SPAR-TEAAAAAAAAAAA!

  • gmscan

    The first step is to stop calling it a “pay roll tax” and call it what it is — “the Social Security tax.”

    GOP messaging has been disastrous. The last time they got it right was when they stated calling the inheritance tax a “death tax.” That change in terminology made all the difference. The message was sent every time the expression was used.

    Calling this “the Social Security tax” tells the story that this is slashing Social Security revenue at the very time that the SS system is in the red.

    • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

      That is exactly the root of the problem. Now Democrats are able to claim the mantle of tax cutting, while painting Republicans as tax hikers on every worker, all the while, forgetting about everything they said regarding Social Security for the past 50 years.

  • Carol Tarasewicz

    It made no sense to me to cut the Social Security payroll tax deduction when we all know that SS has been spent, it is a Ponzi scheme.
    Why not cut Federal withholding tax by 3.1% permanently across the board and decrease federal spending by 5% from all agencies effective 1/1/2012? That would show that they are serious about cutting spending.

  • nathanalbright

    ….not because of its stimulus value but because it only bankrupts Social Security faster, forcing the day of reckoning even sooner.

    • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

      but Republicans need to point that out. They are not talking about the SS aspect of this at all. The average drone probably thinks they are getting a free tax cut with this. We can’t expect people to connect the dots.

      • sadams

        Any time you find yourself on the same side of an issue as Bernie Sanders, you should probably take a hard look at where you stand. The Sanders/Krugman crowd have long argued that SS does not contribute a dime to the deficit because there is a dedicated tax source to pay for it, even though the funds raised in the past were “borrowed” to pay for other programs. The Obama cuts deeply undermine this rationale, which is why Sanders is against them. If the Dem’s actually get the rate down to 3.5%, I doubt that it will ever be allowed to rise again because the economic impact on middle and lower-middle class families would be severe enough to effect election results. Dan, you may be right that the sheeple don’t give a fig about any of this, but I think this could bring about a paradigm shift in the way Social Security is debated in Washington, since there would be no reason to treat it any differently than any other social welfare program. I also relish the possibility of finally doing away with the Rooseveltian subterfuge that people are paying into a retirement program when they pay FICA, as Kyle-MI below notes.

        • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

          but we need to make that case while we agree to renew the tax cut. Currently, Republicans are missing in action. If we don’t call them out on their lies about Social Security we will not have the leverage to exact concessions on Social Security reforms.

          • sadams

            is as bad as I have seen since I started paying attention in 1976. However, I see no tactical advantage to “calling out” the Democrats while they gleefully destroy the foundation for their most cherished program. Let them. The deficit pressures are going to only get worse going forward; we can make all of the arguments you cite later, and probably more effectively. Also, remember that if 60% or more of the public remain supportive of entitlement spending at current and projected levels, the only battle left to fight will be to prevent tax hikes on “the rich”, while the inflationary impact of the continued spending will generally spread the economic pain pretty broadly across the society. Given the choice of evils, I would much rather have a Greek meltdown than a French Revolution.

        • nathanalbright

          If we can get rid of the subterfuge that this is a retirement fund deposit and if wise companies tie the reduction of the payroll tax to an increase in company proceeds into tax-advantaged plans like IRA’s and 401(k) plans, then we have a chance to actually help the retirement plans of workers while simultaneously bankrupting Social Security. That looks like a win-win to me.

          • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

            However, there is one thing to consider. If we are to extend the tax cut, which plan would we support. The current extension of employee’s 2% cut for $111 billion, or the Dems 3% cut for employees and employers costing $265 billion. Once we disregard Social Security, why not agree to the steeper cut or permanent cut, as noted in the article?

            Also, we are falling into a trap because Dems are demanding tax increases to pay for this. I can guarantee you that starving the beast will not work. In other words, we will not extract spending cuts out of them to pay for this. We will either get tax hikes or more deficit spending. Remember that the $265 billion proposal would blow a hole in the budget right now – for this year, not over a 10-year period. We conservatives can certainly find such annual offsets, but I can guarantee you that Congress will not. This will not engender limited government reforms, it will just allow Dems to grow the deficit without taking it on the chin for their hypocrisy on Social Security.

          • sadams

            for the reasons stated above. I’ve given up on getting meaningful cuts; there has never been a poll in the 20 or so years I have been following this that shows any interest in the public in cutting spending. The minute you do, there will be a massive turnover in Washington.

        • skorrent1

          Since inception, SS has been an intergenerational income transfer. It shouldn’t be called “welfare” because the payments are related to individual tax collected, with only a slight boost to the bottom end. However, current attempts to “means test” or increase high-end tax with no increase in payment would convert the whole system into out-and-out welfare.

          The “papadigm shift” you refer to has an additional benefit of finally killing the concept of SS tax as an “insurance premium”. If payroll tax is recognized as just another tax, and the SS program as just another welfare program, then the door is opened for “personal retirement accounts” as a way to reduce the “SS welfare program costs”.

          • sadams

            nt

    • omegamale

      Why Democrats decided it would be their “cause” to bankrupt Social Security faster is beyond me, but I’ll take it.

      The less money I give to Washington, the better. I’m not counting on getting one dime back of the money I’ve put into Social Security, so a deduction in the payroll tax means more money to invest in my own retirement, and less to throw down a rabbit hole.

      Democrats have actually boxed themselves in here, it’s going to be hard to come back and “raise” the payroll/Social Security tax. Which means Social Security will need to be reformed much sooner because it’s out of money.

      Sounds like a win/win to me, but the GOP better not DARE try and offset this with higher taxes in different brackets.

      • http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

        If Republicans negotiated from a position of strength, I’d be all for this.

        They should say,” Hey libs, we’re glad to see that you finally admit that tax cuts stimulate the economy, especially with your new proposal to lower the employer’s share. But wait, what happened to Social Security? Didn’t you clowns always say that SS is a sound program that is payed for by payroll taxes? If reinstatement of previous payroll taxes will always be tantamount to raising taxes on the middle class, then we should always keep the rates this low. Go ahead and bankrupt Social Security even quicker. Heck, by your logic, since the entire program is treated like a Ponzi scheme why not eliminate it altogether and make it permanent?”

        Instead Republicans are quivering in their boots, saying gosh o golly we’ll certainly never raise the tax, but by George, we’ll sure as hell pay for it. So now they are boxing themselves into a promise they know they can’t keep. There is no way you could fill in this gap every year (either $111 billion or $265 billion) in a way that Dems will agree. So we all know that they will either raise taxes (which Republicans probably won’t agree with) or look like fools for blowing open the deficit without properly placing the blame where it belongs.

        • sadams

          I see no reason for the Republicans to admit publicly that they are voting to gut Social Security. That’s just a self-inflicted wound. Sure, they look hypocritical on the deficit, but I can’t remember any politician who has paid the price in the general election for fiscal irresponsibility (recent primaries being a notable exception). Maybe someday, but I doubt it. As for doubling down on the payroll tax cut, I think that would be a great idea. Republicans will always benefit politically from tax cuts in ways the Democrats simply can’t; Republican just have to remember to always do them one better.

        • omegamale

          The GOP shouldn’t have drawn a line in the sand on this issue, but I care more about the big picture than I do a one day news cycle.

          It’s hard to argue against lowering taxes when we’re consistently making supply-side arguments. It also reinforces the image that we’re only for “tax cuts for the rich” by opposing an extension of a tax cut for the lower and middle class, yet trying to reduce rates for top earners (I’m oversimplifying, but it’s easy to connect the dots)

          If every Americans’ tax rate were to go up in 2012, Democrats can truthfully say “It’s the Republicans fault, we wanted to extend the rate, but the GOP blocked it.” It’s not worth giving Democrats our most popular plank : lower taxes.

          There’s no question the Republican stance is more fiscally responsible (from a deficit standpoint) to shore up Social Security, and it’s no coincidence the media is purposely ignoring the implications, but it’s not a hill worth dying on for the GOP.

          The sooner Social Security runs out of money, the better. And the more money in my pocket and less in DC is a nice bonus to boot.

  • Kyle-MI

    At least, that is the argument ever time there is a discussion about reducing SS benefits. They are only getting out the money they paid into the program. If they cut SS “contributions” doesn’t that mean that these people won’t receive as much when they retire? (/sarc)

  • renl57

    How can Republicans attack a 3.5% cut in the payroll tax, when they’re the ones who proposed it in the first place as the way to stimulate the economy?

    http://www.aei.org/outlook/economics/fiscal-policy/print-money-and-cut-the-payroll-tax/

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/04/republicans-democrats-stimulus-oped-cx_rs_0105salam.html

    There are many other examples.

    • sadams

      was hypocrisy and inconsistency a political liability in this country? In any case, they were right before, they are wrong now. See my posts above.

      • renl57

        In today’s editorial, the National Review just endorsed the payroll tax cut. Their arguments:

        1. The idea that the payroll tax cut threatens the SS program is bogus, since it’s really all one big pot of money anyway. Any claim that the SS trust fund is sacrosanct is bogus.

        2. The notion that an SS payroll tax cut is not provably pro-growth is bogus, since the only real way to prove that a particular tax cut stimulates growth is to try it. Even if its effect is marginal, that’s better than nothing, and right now nothing is what we’re stuck with.

        http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/284406/cut-payroll-tax-editors

        We can’t be so paranoid about the Dems that we reflexively oppose anything they suggest on the grounds that it must be bad. It could just be that the Dems are counting on us to react that way, thus giving them a campaign issue for 2012: “We tried to propose tax cuts like the payroll tax cut, but it was the obstructionist Republicans who said no.”

        Let’s call them on their bluff. Let’s pass the tax cut and even compliment congressional Democrats for taking the initiative over their passive President!

        • sadams

          They seem to think it is perfectly fair to require current earners to continue to pay into the Ponzi scheme. Stunning. If conservatives can’t get their act together on this, what are they ever going to agree on?

  • davidengageamerica

    I have to agree with Howard Gleckman over at the Tax Policy Center who in his payroll tax post said, “On its own merits, extending the payroll tax cut may be better than nothing, but it isn?t very good.” http://eng.am/uvIDMJ

    A big reason extending the temporary payroll tax cut isn?t the best solution is because temporary tax cuts don?t alter people?s spending habits because they make financial decisions based on their projected long-term income. http://eng.am/o2tLOH

    What America really needs are solutions with a long-term focus, like the Bowles-Simpson plan.

    • renl57

      As originally passed, they were designed to automatically sunset unless extended.

      The whole distinction between “temporary” and “long term” is bogus. *Any* “temporary” tax cut can always be extended (like the Bush tax cuts), if the will to do so is there. *Any* “permanent* tax cut can be rescinded by raising taxes down the line, as Clinton did when he raised the marginal tax rate once again.

      There is nothing that Congress can give that it can’t take away later.

      • davidengageamerica

        I agree with you argument in principle that Congress can giveth and taketh away tax cuts as it pleases.

        However, there is a distinction between “temporary” and “long term” and it comes from the way it affects the taxpayer?s mentality. The theory is (http://eng.am/n6xG3h) that if a person is told that for one year they will have extra income it won?t have much of an effect on their normal spending habits. However, if they are told that for the next five years they are going to have that extra income then they will make changes to their spending to account for it.

        The difference might be small but the effects of ?temporary? vs. ?permanent? on the economy are large.

  • scottengageamerica

    According to the Tax Policy Center, this latest version of the payroll tax holiday will add $250 billion to the deficit (eng.am/t4cD82).

    The Director of the Congressional Budget Office has said that the temporary increase in take-home pay would be saved rather than spent (eng.am/u9aS4F). There is no reason to believe that this measure will increase hiring. And, there is less reason to believe that this bill will be able to pass through our gridlocked Congress with these new permanent tax increases.

    Yes, the extension of the payroll tax cuts would help many Americans who would otherwise see their taxes go up. However, this current plan to increase the amount of temporary tax cuts even more will do little to help the overall economy.

    • sadams

      See my posts above.

    • sadams

      See my posts above.