Over the weekend, Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans obviated the superior leverage of House Republicans by passing a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, along with a clean extension (no reforms and offsets) of doc fix and unemployment benefits.
In a premature capitulation, they agreed (89-10) to amend the House extenders bill by eliminating most of the spending offsets, all of the UI reforms and the policy riders, with the exception of the Keystone pipeline provision. They will fill in the $33 billion two-month gaping budget hole with nebulous revenue increases from higher Freddie/Fannie mortgages over ten years. To the extent that those revenues will be actualized, this deal will indeed make it harder to shut down these officious venture-socialist enterprises. The Senate action was akin to grounding into a triple play for Team GOP, yet the underlying bill passed with unanimous consent.
Yes – we can already see the ecstatic pronouncements emanating from the McConnell Republican echo chamber. “We got the pipeline,” they will exclaim. But here is the problem: the ship already sailed on that. This issue was such a political liability for Obama that, despite his rhetoric, it was a foregone conclusion he would be forced to cave on it. He was not going to allow this to become an albatross around his neck during the election. Accordingly, the White House is lending enthusiastic support to McConnell’s Senate-passed extension. Besides, due to loopholes in the Keystone provision, the administration is already balking at compliance with the language of the bill.
This is all about understanding your leverage; something that has been lost on GOP leaders throughout the year. And speaking of leverage, this capitulation has totally undermined the superior leverage of House Republicans.
Until Saturday, the House was the only body that had proposed a workable solution to preempt a tax increase on every American worker. The Democrats had been on the run for the entire week. Sadly, in his last act of the year, McConnell, in what appears to be a unilateral move, has launched a drive-by preemptive assault on the House-passed proposal. Was he in such a rush to get home?
Now House Republicans are incensed, and for good reason.
Due to political considerations, conservatives have already been forced to compromise on extending long-term unemployment benefits and an ineffectual temporary tax cut, while paying for them over 10 years. Nonetheless, they agreed to play team ball and vote for the extension on condition that GOP leaders would hold the line on the agreed-upon proposal, which would reduce unemployment benefits to 59 weeks, extend the hiring freeze on the federal workforce, and ban illegal aliens from receiving refundable tax credits. We were promised up and down that, although the extension was a necessity, by George, it would be paid for…even if it takes 10 years.
Instead of evincing a unified front, the Senate has paved the door for a defacto permanent extension of all three components (payroll tax cut, UI, and doc fix) without paying for them. Worse, on paper they are only extending them for 2 months. However, even though we all know they will be renewed in perpetuity, the only half-decent part of the bill – the payroll tax cut – will now lose any pro-growth potency it might have had. Why blow a hole in the budget for a lousy two-month tax cut?
Once again, we will hear about the victory regarding the pipeline. But we must remember that the paramount issue of our time is budget insolvency. And as it relates to the budget, this deal is a disaster. After Republicans failed to cut one penny from discretionary budget authority this year, they are prepared to increase mandatory spending by enshrining UI as a permanent fourth entitlement program.
Jim DeMint said it best in an op-ed for The Hill:
“I opposed both of these bills [the omnibus and extenders package]. We don’t have a temporary economy and we can’t continue operating on temporary tax policies. We need permanent tax reform that eliminates special interest carve-outs and lowers rates for everyone. We cannot keep extending unemployment insurance for up to two years of benefits, which encourages chronic joblessness. And we will never balance the budget by passing bloated appropriations bills that keep spending more than the year before.”
So where do we go from here?
House Republicans must do something that should have been done a few weeks ago. They should decouple the payroll tax cut from the rest of the extenders package and pass them in separate bills.
While there are divergent conservative opinions regarding the perspicacity behind a short-term payroll tax cut proposal, the eventuality of the tax holiday extension is politically irrevocable. To that end, conservatives are forced to choose between voting against a tax cut and extending super-long unemployment benefits. We are confronted with the uncomfortable reality that the harder we push for strong reforms or elimination of long-term UI, the more we risk shooting the hostage; the payroll tax cut extension. This unnecessary false choice prompted some good senators to support the McConnell package out of fear that it was the last chance to preempt a major tax increase. This is bad policy and bad politics.
House Republicans should return Monday morning and pass a clean 12-month extension of the payroll tax cut; no riders, reforms, offsets, and extraneous extensions attached. This will force the Senate to vote up or down on the only clean extension on the floor. Then, the House should pass a separate bill that reduces UI to 59 weeks, extends doc fix, and contains all of the offsets and policy riders, including the Keystone provision. Free of the perilous burden of blocking a tax cut, Republicans will be able to negotiate hard for a ‘take it or leave it’ approach to the rest of the package. If Democrats decline to support our package, tough luck on them; they’ll get no UI extension at all. That’s what should happen anyway.
After a year of batting .000 on legislative fights, it’s time for Republicans to negotiate from a position of strength. Separate out the payroll tax cut and fight to the finish for the House-passed UI package. Don’t opt for another closed-door conference committee agreement that will block amendments from House conservatives. Boehner owes it to his rank-and-file members for agreeing to the compromise plan in the first place.
In this 11th hour of a very ugly year, Speaker Boehner has one last opportunity to shine.
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Steve Maley
Daniel Horowitz
One last opportunity to shine?
ghostship Sunday, December 18th at 12:23PM EDT (link)Hahahaha. Oh, that is so funny. Next you’ll be telling me that the GOP is going to cut spending and reduce government. Like that will ever happen.
Man, I thought this was a political blog not a humor blog.
Obama is rolling Senate Republicans like flounder in flour...
APA Guy (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 7:59PM EDT (link)The worst part is, the GOP had Obama over a barrel before the fight began. He desperately wants to extend the payroll tax cut AND unemployment checks so he can rail on during the election about how much he cares for regular Americans.
The country desperately needs that pipeline and budget cuts. Obama would have done anything they asked had they held the line and not given him what he wants. Now, he gets to toss this garbage back on Republicans’ faces and we STILL don’t get what we need or want.
Only the modern Republican Party could make someone like Barack Obama look like a master strategist for taking a certain defeat and turning it into an issue that benefits him, but that is exactly what is happening…courtesy of the limp-noodle Senate GOP leadership.
Not to be trusted ... ever
downstateray Sunday, December 18th at 9:16PM EDT (link)Porky McConnell and Nancy Graham strike again. The GOP cannot be trusted as long as these and others rule the roost. At least Kirk voted against the phony compromise.
UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Nevile Monday, December 19th at 7:43AM EDT (link)The senior Republican senate leadership are all eunuchs!
Every one of them needs to be retired in the next available primary.
Flounder is putting it mildly
thosjefferson Monday, December 19th at 2:01AM EDT (link)Comparing the Senate Republicans to a flounder is the best metaphor I’ve read in a long time. Well said!
The only legitimate way to justify this “tax deduction” is to deduct an equivalent amount from the entitlements they’re underfunding.
Who would have thought, a year ago, that the Republicans would have made such a mess of this straightforward argument? And now Obama is demagoguing the “cut” in the Social Security payroll tax as if he’s cut taxes, when all he’s doing is transforming Social Security from a quasi-insurance program to a full-fledged general budget obligation?
"Forced" to cave on Keystone XL?
renl57 Sunday, December 18th at 12:37PM EDT (link)“This issue was such a political liability for Obama that, despite his rhetoric, it was a foregone conclusion he would be forced to cave on it.”
Forced by whom? When? How?
You never trade a specific opportunity to force the issue for some nebulous hope that he’ll cave on the issue later.
Yes, the issue would definitely come up in the general campaign. And it would hurt Obama with the blue-collar oilfield and construction workers who stood to gain by the pipeline. But as I have pointed out before, Obama has already written them off anyway in favor of his New Left coalition of environmentalists, their youthful supporters, minorities, etc.
This way, Obama is forced to cave now and alienate part of his New Left coalition.
What is the House GOP Position?
Samsara (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 1:23PM EDT (link)First House Republicans they are against continuing the payroll extension. Then they are for it if they get a decision on the Keystone Pipeline. Then they get what they wanted on the pipeline, but they don’t want another chance to vote against the tax cut they didn’t want to begin with.
Now they want to go to conference…for what!
Here is the summary of Republican Senate votes:
Republican YEAs
Alexander (R-TN), Ayotte (R-NH), Barrasso (R-WY), Blunt (R-MO ), Boozman (R-AR), Brown (R-MA), Burr (R-NC), Chambliss (R-GA), Coats (R-IN), Coburn (R-OK), Cochran (R-MS), Collins (R-ME), Cornyn (R-TX) ,Crapo (R-ID)
Enzi ( R, WY) Graham (R-SC) Grassley (R-IA) Hatch (R-UT) Heller (R-NV) Hoeven (R-ND) Hutchison (R-TX) Inhofe (R-OK) Isakson (R-GA) Johanns (R-NE) Kyl (R-AZ) Lee (R-UT) Lugar (R-IN) McCain (R-AZ) McConnell (R-KY) Murkowski (R-AK) Portman (R-OH) Risch (R-ID) Roberts (R-KS) Rubio (R-FL) Snowe (R-ME) Thune (R-SD) Toomey (R-PA) Vitter (R-LA) Wicker (R-MS)
Republican NAYs
Corker (R-TN), DeMint (R-SC), Johnson (R-WI),Kirk (R-IL) Sessions (R-AL), Shelby (R-AL)
I agree with Mr. Horowitz, this is about leverage, and House Republicans have NONE. Any talk of taking ornaments off this Christmas tree of a bill will be met with the very valid answer, take yours off first. If House Republicans wanted to take a principled stand against the payroll tax extension, they needed to take that stand a month ago and make their case. They decided to play politics with the issue, and they have lost.
Toomey :-(
bobguzzardi Monday, December 19th at 7:29AM EDT (link)This is disappointing. My Sen. voted with Majority.
Thanks, Daniel “Red Meat” Horowitz. These policy postings are very helpful in understanding the issues and, of course, learning the latest Republican sell out.
I think the Rs are afraid of bad publicity. Don’t they know that they are Rs which makes them more of a threat than Kim Jong Il?
Sold out for what?
quad4x4 Monday, December 19th at 1:07PM EDT (link)We get sold out, and all they get is a DO NOT RE-ELECT ME BADGE. So who will remember this set of stupid votes. Only the Nay voters and the followers on the Red State…and a very few others. We bitched about the 1000′s of pages in princess Nancy Bills, so what is OK with this bunch having 2500 pages, same same, we will know what is in it AFTER it passes.
We need the HOUSE TO SHOW THE WAY. Either break up the bill into 3 or more parts and vote each or cut the funding for all the Christmas tree pork. Tax Enough Already….you know TEA PARTY, it is this kind of stuff that makes RECALL SOUND GOOD.
But some say, we can’t afford an election, I say donkey dew, we can’t afford the Senate or some House members failing to follow the rules of order and the Constitution, that they took an oath of Allegiance too. The time is ripe to start the petitions to recall all now.. Sure it will take months, but some members have years to go before their next election.
If we are lucky many will just retire, that is before the no retirement packages hit the fan…2013 order no. 2, right after Order no 1- killing obamocare.
Nuclear option
garythompson Sunday, December 18th at 1:35PM EDT (link)This was a good post and lays out what is on the table. If the payroll tax cut is sent in a separate bill with no offsets there is no guarantee that a future bill would be passed and we just increased the budget deficit. But extending this tax cuts reomves the obama meme that he could use on the campaign trail.
I like the idea of tying all the offsets, spending, and keystone together and if we can’t agree then shut the government down for a few months. With no UI let’s see how quickly the Dems cave. I’ve always rooted for a shutdowof a couple of months. Who cares?
Gary Thompson
We need to decouple from
DerKrieger (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 1:38PM EDT (link)…the federal government. It’s obvious that the federal government is unwilling and incapable of reform. We will never reduce the size of the federal government as long as we look to DC to downsize itself.
What we have to do if we are to be successful is elect conservative state legislators and governors who are willing to seize their rightful constitutional authority back from the Feds.
What can the EPA, HHS, et al do if a majority of red states simply ignore federal legislation that the states have deemed unconstitutional? The federal government is not the ultimate arbiter of constitutionality.
Without voluntary cooperation the federal power structure would crumble.
It is time for us to focus our energies closer to home and neuter the federal government.
If we cannot succeed then we are destined to be slaves.
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690
Agree, DerKrieger, the states have been castrated
westcoastpatriette (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 1:50PM EDT (link)by the feds and behave like powerless wimps too much of the time. Most bullies will not stop until they are challenged and the states need to step up to the plate and fight the federal bully.
Praise ye the Lord. Sing unto the Lord a new song, and his praise in the congregation of saints. Let Israel rejoice in him that made him: Let the children of Zion be joyful in their King. Let them praise His name in the dance: let them sing praises unto Him with the timbrel and harp. Psalm 149:1-3
No, the states have castrated themselves for the
davesinsanantonio (Diary) Monday, December 19th at 5:25AM EDT (link)chance to suck at the federal teat.
Nothing will change until the states themselves grow a pair, not wait for the feds to had them a couple.
In 2008 all we heard was how inmortant it was to reelect Mitch McConnell to the US Senate....Conservatives rallied to drag his putrid carcass over the finish line
AceInTX (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 3:20PM EDT (link)What a mistake THAT was
I never thought I’d see the day when I would be able to point to a Republican in leadership and honestly say they were as useless, pathetic and feckless as Speaker Bob Micheal or Senate Majority/Minority leader Boob Dole…but that day is here…only McConnell is infinitely worse because I believe Dole’s and Michael were simply incompetent, I think McConnell is doing this by design…I think in his heart of hearts he agrees with Harry Ried and is lead blocking for him in cramming his agenda past Republicans in the Senate….
I’d we take the Majority in 2012 in the Senate…Job one HAS to be ending Mitch McConnell’s malicious reign as Republican Leader
Agreed
turningtables (Diary) Sunday, December 18th at 4:35PM EDT (link)However, I’ve been saying that for nearly two years. And there needs to be a change at the top regardless if the GOP takes the Senate or not.
My local GOP folks seemed unnerved when I spoke up at a lunchtime rally for Dan Coats when he was running for Senate this last time. I asked if he would vote for DeMint for the top spot in the Senate GOP.
DeMint had already endorsed one of Coats’ primary opponents and Coats was the handpicked candidate of the DC bunch.
I knew the answer but I still asked the question.
My mantra for the senate: Change the team, pick a new captain. Otherwise crap sandwiches is all we’ll ever ‘enjoy’.
Christian, dad, husband, conservative, Republican… in that order.
Growing impatient with the situation. Getting frustrated with the fact that the GOP establishment doesn’t share the same priorities I do. Becoming convinced it may be time to offer them one of the crap sandwiches they have been handing me for a couple of decades now.
McConnell needs to feel the heat (along with others..)
jeffsmnz (Diary) Monday, December 19th at 9:48AM EDT (link)The Tea Party kettle needs to be brought back to a boil ASAP! Has the pot run out of steam? These RINO Senators need to catch HELL, on the phones and email, but especially when they’re back home. Where the hell is the passion and outrage? Are we too focused on tearing each other apart because of the presidential primary? RINO GOP Senators that aren’t up for re-election need constant intensive re-education – raise the pressure to the red line. RINO GOP Senators up for re-election need to be primaried. What the hell is McConnell thinking? McConnell has to be thrown out of any leadership position. He’s a WIMP!
This has got to stop
darkmit Monday, December 19th at 2:50AM EDT (link)This concept of spending now and spreading the paying for it over ten years is the greatest lie being sold to the American people.
The whole ten year budget forecasting Washington scam needs to be outlawed. I mean if a present congress cannot force a future congress to do anything how can a ten year forecast be worth anything?
Congress’ first task when inaugurated should be a two-year budget with spending and revenue restricted to that two years only. All spending and revenue predictions can only be for that two-year window. This ten year crap needs to be sent the way of the dinosaurs.
Join the discussion to establish some true long term goals for America at http://www.oasg.org
Stopping is a number one project:
quad4x4 Monday, December 19th at 1:14PM EDT (link)Firing the idiots who think we are idiots is number 2/
good post.darkmit
Weasel McConnell may have been in a hurry to get home for Christmas, but
davesinsanantonio (Diary) Monday, December 19th at 5:28AM EDT (link)his real agenda is undermining the superior leverage of House Republicans. His most important goal is to stymie the House conservatives at every opportunity.
This jerk must be primaried out of office at the earliest opportunity.
Kirk :-)
bobguzzardi Monday, December 19th at 7:32AM EDT (link)I was surprised to see Sen. Kirk’s nay and Pat Toomey’s yea. Sen. Kirk has been a bit more suburban liberal on fiscal issues than others. (Sen. Kirk is first rate on foreign policy, though).
I wonder why Sen. Toomey went with Minority Leader. and Sen. Vitter, too.
Heh. Nobody gets Illinois right, Guzzardi.
acat (Diary) Monday, December 19th at 8:22AM EDT (link)The North Shore, the area Kirk’s old district covered, could be described as fiscally big-government-conservative. That is, very nanny-state, but at the same time, demanding good value for money. (lots of *relatively* old money on the north shore…)
The point is, while he supported social programs that his district wanted, it’s not difficult for him to pivot a bit to being a budget hawk.
He’s never going to be DeMint or Santorum .. but that’s probably for the best as DeMint would have a hard time getting re-elected in Illinois, and Santorum would have a hard time getting elected anywhere… evidently.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
To heck with it all!
geoph Monday, December 19th at 8:56AM EDT (link)Let’s just raise taxes to 100%, give Unions and entitlement programs everything they want, and remove all limits to Government spending.
The idiots in Washington would pass it, the government would be de-funded, and we could start from scratch, assuming we survive the riots and zombie Apocolypse!
Sorry, frustration has temporarily spilled all the TEA out of my coffee cup.
GOP establishment
spolson Monday, December 19th at 9:59AM EDT (link)The old guard republicans have allowed us to get to this state of socialism by weakness, compromise and back room dealing. They talk a good fight but they cave.
Unless we find a way to marginalize them we will miss the last chance to peacefully regain our freedoms and prosperity.
No one is pointing out that socialism has failed everywhere it was tried and communism has to shoot it’s citizens to keep them from escaping. For some reason we have started to revere the Europeans. The history I have read says they are pompous fools who ignore war rattles and then call us to help them back. Aside from the royals they have about half the standard of living or less then we have had for centuries. They are arrogant and hateful. Stubborn and stupid. Tell me why we revere them again. Art, fashion, music, history. Their history is of oppression when ever the opportunity arose. Get off the Europe kick. It is stupid.
I hear nothing of the Tea party anymore only the protestors who want free money and stuff is all I can glean from their rhetoric.
Right now we are choosing the best debater. That only touches on how this person will be as a leader. Far more important is how they have acted. Rick Perry made some debating goofs but his record is strong and Right. He wouldn’t do better than Sarah Palin as a running mate. We have the wonderful speech maker in chief. Now who presented us with an oppressive healthcare legislation which will cripple our healthcare, control our lives and fail. He has bamboozled the citizens out of billions to give to his pet causes that fail and supporters who have sent and will send him money. The man is evil and bent on destroying this country to make it unable to fend off our enemies, while he has empowered the enemies routinely. He has to go and in my opinion tried for treason. No get smart Americans and save our country. The press is dying but it could use some help in that direction. I think the privileges they enjoy should be revoked once their complicity to the Democrat party is proven. Hold them to the fire to be the real “press” not just an Obama routing section.
Tea party compared to Occupy Types?
quad4x4 Monday, December 19th at 1:24PM EDT (link)In another Blog, one OWS person said after reading what we wanted as conservatives, was the same as what THEY wanted.
This is outrageous, he was advised. The Tea Party groups never had commies and left wing anarchies type in their meeting.
All together now, no to socialism, any any form..that will hurt some programs we already have, so be it.
Constitutional Amendment on Taxes
bob570 Monday, December 19th at 12:30PM EDT (link)It’s time to say to our federal masters to stop jerking us around with Tax merry go round. In fact it might not be a bad idea to Repeal, or rewrite the 16th Amendment to the Constitution, altogether, and taxing back to the States.
The House is feverishly working to turn the House back to the Democrats and
ihateliberals Monday, December 19th at 11:04PM EDT (link)Make sure that Obama is elected again in 2012. With the Republican candidates of Romney or Newt against Obama Obama is a shoe in. So many conservatives will just throw in the towel that Obama will win. Nancy Pelosi has a good chance of returning to the Speakers position because we the people have laid back on our A s s e s for the most part of this year and allowed such Shoddy candidates to make it to the top. We will go the way of Europe with the socialization of our country and China will end up walking all over us and Europe before it is through.
I really fear we could be right back where we were before 2010
heraklios Monday, December 19th at 11:12PM EDT (link)I don’t think the D.C./Wall Street Establishment recognizes how much turnout will be down if a RINO gets the nomination. The Fox News talking heads act like the Senate is in the bag but I could easily see the Democrats holding their seats and taking a couple of ours. Likewise, in the House. Given the redistricting disaster in IL, TX (pending SCOTUS), CA and NY, we start in the hole. With a RINO Presidential nominee and weak conservative turnout, a bunch of other marginal seats could flip.