Obama’s Un-American Nuclear Weapons Policy


Every once and a while I have to hit myself over the head and remember that whomever receives the Republican nomination – vices and all – must be supported over Obama.  Even though a Republican-controlled Congress can stop much of Obama’s domestic policy agenda (although they tend to cave), the president has wide latitude to act unilaterally on foreign policy.  His foreign policy is naive, dangerous, and downright un-American.  It’s even worse than his domestic policy.  Consequently, whenever we become disillusioned with the current crop of GOP candidates, we must remember Obama’s policies on defense and national security.

Yesterday, we heard the news that Obama would like to reduce our tactical nuclear weapons arsenal from 5,000 warheads to just a few hundred.  This would decrease our nuclear arsenal to a level smaller than that of China.  The news percolated into the media during the visit of China’s Vice President Xi Jinping.  What sort of message does that send to our chief conventional strategic threat in the world?  The sad thing is that Obama mistakenly believes that nuclear weapons are just as dangerous in the hands of Americans as they are in the hands of China, Russia, or even Iran.

Today, we discover even worse news on the nuclear weapons front.

In 2010, Obama convinced the Senate to ratify the New START Treaty with Russia, an agreement that ostensibly committed us to unilaterally disarm and cut our nuclear weapons arsenal.  In order to win the 67 requisite votes, Obama swindled several credulous Republicans into voting for the treaty on condition that he would commit to investing more than $4 billion into modernizing our nuclear weapons and facilities.  Well, it turns out that Obama lied.  This, from CQ:

Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, who negotiated with the administration to secure more than $4 billion in nuclear forces, and weapons and facilities modernization over five years, said Thursday that plans to reduce spending over the next 10 years effectively eliminate the funding President Obama promised to use for modernization.

“What the budget does is throw away all that work,” said Kyl, who ultimately voted against ratification of the treaty despite the funding deal with the White House.

Kyl suggested that Republicans would fight to add back the $372 million taken from nuclear modernization in the fiscal 2013 defense budget request.

As Tripp Baird of Heritage Action notes, Kyl’s negotiation with Obama regarding weapons modernization helped secure the support of Republicans like Lamar Alexander.  While Kyl personally voted against ratification of START, 13 Republicans supported it, granting Obama more than enough votes to ratify the treaty.

If for no other reason than the nuclear weapons issue, we must get Obama out of the White House.  Oh, and it would help if we elect Republicans to the Senate who won’t get suckered into supporting the next suicidal treaty in case Obama does remain in office.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project


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Thank You Mr. Horowitz

Wubbies World (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 8:04AM EDT (link)

The more I read your articles, the more I like you. I genuinely thank you for posting here. I learn a lot from you.

Red State Strike ForceWubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
Join The Red State Strike Force
><> If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing Right The First Time.

So now this is the new reason we have to vote for Mittens?

angryguy77 Friday, February 17th at 2:01PM EDT (link)

Now i don’t want to see our nukes reduced as much as the next guy. But to say this current moronic idea by Obama serves as a reminder we would have to vote for another liberal republican is asinine.

The damage that would be done to our arsenal can be reversed. The damage that Miittens would do to the party and brand of conservatism would be much harder to repair.

Who said anything about voting for "Mittens?"

JX12 (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 1:39PM EDT (link)

All he said was that we need to vote Obama out, and that WHOMEVER gets the GOP nomination would be better on foreign policy than Obama – which is a true statement (well, with the possible exception of isolationist Ron Paul – but he’s not going to get the GOP nomination anyway).

The fact that you’re so quick to interpret this as some sort of subtle plug for Mitt Romney would seem to indicate (to me, at least) that you’re so dead set against him that you’ll take your ball and go home if Mitt gets the nomination. If this is true, then you will have effectively cast your vote for Obama in November (same thing if you vote third party).

I don’t support Mitt, either – nor do I intend to vote for him in my state’s primary; but if he gets the nomination, I’ll be voting for him in November. Period.

If the ideological purity crowd is going to throw away an opportunity to at least put the brakes on the damage Obama is doing to the country because they can’t bring themselves to vote for anyone who is less than perfect in their eyes, then we’re in for four more years of Obama – and, in all likelihood, permanent Obamacare.

Conservative in the primary. Republican in the general. Otherwise, we’re done.

 
 
 

God help us if Iran starts a nuclear attack during

renny (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 8:50AM EDT (link)

the o tenure.

We need a GOP candidate now and a clear, positive program for the dreadful campaign ahead.

Yeah because we aren't sure who's side he would support.

snowshooze (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 1:27AM EDT (link)

I think he’s back Iran. He has been.

 
 

I Couldn't Care Less

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 8:52AM EDT (link)

about this one. If we have to ever use nukes, it is all over anyways. And yes, a few hundred is just as much of a deterrent as a few thousand (all that matters is that we have quick strike ability). This simply isn’t something to get worked up about.

I'm sure it's not going to be popular here

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 8:57AM EDT (link)

But I agree. If the fact that any country that attacks us with nuclear weapons would be wiped off the map isn’t enough of a deterrent, having the ability to wipe it off the map multiple times isn’t going to be a difference. It’s game over either way. And lets not forget that no less the Reagan tried to decrease our number of nuclear weapons.

Obviously, neither one has ...

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:37AM EDT (link)

Any interest or experience in military matters. What does it take to assure “quick strike ability” on possible targets throughout the world by any of the alternate delivery systems that might be chosen to deliver any of the available yields/effects that might be desired? Let’s make allowance for warhead security that may have units rotating on and off station and for warheads going in and out of maintenance. Three hundred eggs sitting in a basket in CONUS may seem like a bunch, but it may be wholely inadequate to provide an adequate strategic deterance or credible response.

Kowalski

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:47AM EDT (link)

Comments like “it’s all over anyway” and “wiped off the map” illustrate complete ignorance of the variety of situations and conditions under which nuclear weapons might be considered.

You have to be kidding

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:55AM EDT (link)

the damage (political and economic) from using the first nuke since 1945 far outweigh any potential benefit we would get by nuking someone. There are good reasons these weapons have sat dormant for decades and I would argue that are more precision guided weapons are far better in almost all circumstances and a much better deterrent, since we can now easily target leaders with smart weapons if we choose.

I'm Afraid You are Mistaken

edintexas Friday, February 17th at 1:28PM EDT (link)

The US has a policy of no “first strike”. We would use our weapons only if first attacked. In order for those nuclear weapons to be a deterrent, there must be sufficient numbers to survive that first strike against us. With Multiple Independently-targeted Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) warheads, one missile can be targeted to take out many launch sites in a first strike. Many of our missile launch sites were built when the Soviet Union did not have pinpoint accuracy capability. There are far more accurate warheads available to other countries today, making our launch sites less secure from attack.

As for the political and economic “damage” for a country which attacks the US – I think you have a far better view of the rest of the world than I. Other than Canada,Britain, New Zealand, Australia and probably Israel (though they likely will be too busy defending their country), it is unlikely that any other country would do anything other than either be quiescent or celebrate. Envy is a strong emotion, and most of the UN members would think we were getting our just deserts. They certainly would be afraid of any country which had the cojones to attack the US with nukes. It might be that the country which would attack us wouldn’t care about the repercussions (e.g. Iran and the expectation of the coming of the 12th Imam).

Kowalski

edintexas Friday, February 17th at 1:41PM EDT (link)

Forgot to also point out that our submarine ballistic missile fleet is not as immune to attack as it once was. Other countries have been developing more silent hunters. And we have been developing new submarines to fight different conflicts, shallow water and Special Operations Forces insertion are high on the capabilities list now. These are not the capabilities to fight a strategic nuclear war. No comment against the Navy, those capabilities are at the forefront of warfighting now. But I’m sure they didn’t expect something like a reduction to 300 warheads (at 15 to 20 per MIRV, that isn’t a lot of missiles). 300 warheads is fewer than the number of W-88 warheads currently available for deployment in the Trident II Ohio Class submarines (which we’ve just spent almost a billion dollars upgrading to last until the year 2040).

 

"Other than the countries with actual real-world experience winning wars

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:47PM EDT (link)

all with their own independent nuclear capabilities, we have no one on our side!”

BTW, I’d include France as a country with nuclear weapons that would likely retaliate along with us, as well as several other non-nuclear powers that would help us out (Turkey, Poland, Denmark, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, among others).

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 

not quite right

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:10PM EDT (link)

our no first strike policy applies to chemical weapons. Our nuclear policy is no first strike against a non-nuclear state

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 
 
 
 

Stupid Versus Ignorant

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:59AM EDT (link)

Ignorance: Lack of Knowledge or Awareness

Some people confuse ignorance with stupidity mistakenly thinking that ignorance implies stupidity. The most brilliant man in the world transported 1000 years into the future would still be intelligent but would be ignorant of the world around him.

So when I say that your statement “a few hundred is just as much of a deterrent as a few thousand” is ignorant I am simply saying you lack awareness of this particular issue.

I do not know your age, but for those who grew during the cold war and were aware of these issues understand the problem with your viewpoint.

300 nuclear weapons sounds like a lot, but here is why it is not:

1) Must prevent any country from thinking that a first strike will take out sufficient number of nuclear weapons.

2) Must account for the potential of malfunctions, mistargeting.

3) Must prevent any country from thinking that if they provoke us into using nuclear weapons against country A that we will not have enough weapons to be used against country B. (or that country B will then believe a first strike would be effective)

4) 300 might be enough right now but we do not want any country even thinking about building up their nukes as a potential first strike capability.

5) You also seem to assume that each of our nuclear weapons is of the same power as earlier models. Newer versions are actually less powerful than the ones they replace.

6) The 1.2 megaton bomb which is the largest now available in the US arsenal would “only” cause third degree radiation burns over a radius of 8 miles. The blast damage would be confined to about a 5 mile radius. The state of Texas has 268,800 square miles. 300 nukes even if they were all the largest in our inventory would directly destroy 2400 square miles of Texas or 0.8 % of the land. Of course radiation would kill any unprotected population but a country might build fallout shelters to protect their populations not directly hit by the weapon.

The point is we don’t want any country even thinking that such a plan could be successful even if they “miscalculate” our ability to respond.

But what country is planning on attacking

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:09AM EDT (link)

That could possible do enough damage to hinder our ability to respond with overwhelming force? Russia isn’t. China isn’t – as I said above they’ve already got us by the balls. Iran? The might fit the first requirement, but nothing Iran could do, even assuming a worse case scenario, would do enough damage to our ability to completely obliterate them.

Now if a country starts becoming a new USSR, then we rebuild. But even as a worse case scenario – China – we’re so far away from being close to nuclear war with them that there’s no reason to build up equipment now that will be obsolete even by the time we even have to start considering whether or not to build up our arsenal again.

If we only had 300 nukes, China's estimated 400 nukes

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:17AM EDT (link)

would be very effective. Not to mention they might be clever enough to find other ways to destroy our nukes without using their own (sabotage)

And they might estimate that 300 nukes would not be able to do much damage to them. Even if we killed 3 out of every 4 of them, they would still have a population of 300 million remaining.

I don't think even Obama plans to drop our number

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:45AM EDT (link)

without getting other countries to agree to drop theirs. Also as kelp mentioned before, according to the source used for this post, 300 is talks among lower-level officials” at the Pentagon, not something Obama has called for.

Again, Foolishness

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:00AM EDT (link)

Here is why: If dropping our forces from 4000 to 300 makes sense, why not to 100? or 10? 300 is not an effective deterrent. It also makes it easier for sabotage or first strikes especially if a country cheats. Imagine that, a country cheating on a peace agreement. No country would ever do that. Right? (For those who forgot: Germany after WWI cheated on their peace agreement which led to WWII)

I will not put my freedom at stake by trusting dictators and fascists to live up to their agreements.

I don't think anyone is married to the number 300

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:20AM EDT (link)

And as I pointed out above, this number is just chatter among low level officials at the Pentagon, not a plan being actively pursued. There is a number that we need to provide a deterrent. It’s probably a lot less then we currently have. Saying that we could have a lot less nuclear weapons then we currently that and still be safe is nothing at all like saying that we can drop it down to any number and be safe. As far as untrustworthy neighbors, we can usually tell if they are lying to a large enough extent to matter. There are signs, and satellites make it easier then ever to do see them.

Keep on Believing

edintexas Friday, February 17th at 1:45PM EDT (link)

Others count on it.

 

Your beliefs are dangerous.

falconrap Friday, February 17th at 7:41PM EDT (link)

300 nukes are not enough. Keeping 4000, however, is. One only truly achieves peace through superior firepower. Having enough nukes to ensure that you will wipe out your enemy, and any of their allies, even after a first strike by them, prevents your enemy from making that mistake.

Furthermore, why is it an issue to have 4000 warheads? We’re not using them unless provoked, so what’s the problem? Why send a sign of weakness to those who would love to see us fall? Too many people see nukes destroying whole cities in the movies, despite the fact that most major cities in the US would require several nukes, of the half a megaton variety, to destroy them. Even more if we are talking smaller tactical nukes. Never give your enemies a reason to believe you are weak or they will take advantage.

The cost is why

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:03PM EDT (link)

And 300 nukes is plenty to wipe out any enemy who might attack us. The only countries that 300 wouldn’t be enough for (and once again, 300 is talk among low level pentagon officials, not a plan being put into action) are Russia – which is now friendly, and China, which isn’t going to attack us because they already essentially own us. And even for those countries, 300 is plenty enough to be a deterrent, but again we don’t need a deterrent for those countries.

But as to your question, it’s the cost that bothers me. That’s the issue. We’re borrowing money from China to keep upgrading and creating facilities that are not needed. This post is about about how we’re not spending enough money (according to some) to upgrade systems we don’t need. If keeping 4000 nukes were free, then it’s a different calculus. But they’re not.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

I disagree, we need more than enough to take

Seedyrom (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:12AM EDT (link)

out other nuke countries plus extras needed in case of missile failures or if missiles are shot down or miss the target. Its not a perfect world. Also, we need a reserve after the fact since other countries could threaten retaliation. Supply is the best deterrent not the euro-lib-surrender model of zero nukes.

While Russia claims 1550 or so, you can bet those commi’s have more hidden and ready to be fitted on missiles, bombs or the old school sneak attack hiding one on a timer. While the odds are extremely low, supply assures us of Super Power Numero Uno status.

Do we even know for sure how many Pakistan has, or China. Its not like we can trust unless we can review their stockpile in person. Bear in mind we aso have strategic nukes which were not part of Obama’s deal with Russia.

 
 

The GOP is no longer a "conservative" party

NickDeringer (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:03AM EDT (link)

As a child of the Cold War I remember the debate on both sides. The Left-wing, Soviet sympathizers argued the point by asking “Why do we need so many nukes when we could destroy the whole word 100 times over?” Like most arguments from the Left, this is designed to get you off on a useless tangent. Why do we need so many nukes? Because if your enemy is attacks you in a first strike scenario, he will wipe out a large number of your land-based nukes. A very, very large number. This leaves us with far fewer nukes for the retaliatory strike. If we have 3,000 nukes we could lose 1 or 2 thousand still mount a reasonable counter attack. If we have only 300 nukes, we will have less than 100 to launch. A number that could easily be shot down or fail in flight before hitting their targets. MAD only works if there’s MUTUAL DESTRUCTION. India floated the idea about 8 years ago of a survivable nuke exchange with Pakistan. They were willing to lose 3 million of their people if it would eradicate Pakistan and its threat. Do you see the problem?

People who see this election as just politics as usual are simply trapped in the 3rd grade. America will not survive four more years of Chairman One-bama.

This is so stupid

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:13AM EDT (link)

If someone first strikes us like you said, there wouldn’t be an America left anyways, so it really wouldn’t matter if we launched back. And as of right now, only the Chicoms (who everyone loves trading with/outsourcing to) have the capability to launch a massive first strike and for them to do so would be economic suicide.

No! You live in the 3rd grade

NickDeringer (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:27AM EDT (link)

Here’s how it all works. The point of MAD is deterrence. The Soviets didn’t attack us because they were “deterred” by the concept of “if we bomb them they will bomb us.” You should read some history books and watch less cable TV.

You live in 3rd grade? That's your comeback?

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:34AM EDT (link)

By the way, maybe you should read some history books – the Soviets are gone. China isn’t going to attack us anytime soon because they have us by the balls anyhow, and those who might be tempted to attack us (Iran) wouldn’t be able to wipe out much more then a city or two (if they could even do that much) – which would be horrific but would not threaten our ability to wipe them out with our hundreds of nuclear weapons. MAD would still apply.

Actually 3rd Grade really does sum up your ignroance

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:04AM EDT (link)

Seriously. I admit I was thinking the same thing. And you mention knowledge of history—BS If you knew any history of man you would know how quickly countries can build up arms and become huge threats.

So other countries could do it quickly

znjs (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:12AM EDT (link)

but not the US? That’s what you’re saying? Other countries could jump so far in front of us that we wouldn’t be able to keep up?

 
 
 

Who are we deterring now

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 9:43AM EDT (link)

Last I checked, Reagan wiped out the Soviets.

Plenty of countries, you offer 3rd grade responses

Seedyrom (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:21AM EDT (link)

much like the lefties. Makes people wonder why you’d waste time a subject more comprehensive than small numbers will keep the enemy at bay when we’ve seen countries side against other countires before………Nazi’s. Russians and there are several middle east countries that want nuclear power.

The Russians, Really?

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:27AM EDT (link)

Alright, it is time to put away that well worn copy of Red Dawn. As Reagan proved, economic deterrence is far greater a weapon than nuclear deterrence.

Reagan Proved No Such Thing. Economic deterrence is not enough. Reagan took covert (and not so covert) action

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:08AM EDT (link)

against Soviet supporters and states across the world. Thousands of lives were lost in these non-economic actions.

you did read where he said "deterrence", right?

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:13AM EDT (link)

just checking.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 

Are you really a conservative?

Seedyrom (Diary) Friday, February 24th at 11:34AM EDT (link)

You lie like a you know what and all the pandering pro messiah messaging suggests so.

 
 
 

Time for a Little History Lesson (That should knock some sense into you)

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:31AM EDT (link)

During the cold war, in 1976 a defector flew one of the latest fighters to Japan. Even though the Russians had the technology to use semi-conductors, they chose to use vaccum tubes. At first, our analysts laughed at their use of this seemingly antiquated technology, but then they realized that it was done so that the Russians could set off an EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) that destroys semi-condutors. Our air defenses would be useless. Such a design would have had only one purpose: First Strike capability. The Russians were creating the opportunity to launch a first strike (whether they would have used it is unknown).

Russia still has over 10,000 nukes. Gee. 300 against 10,000.. Don’t like those odds.

How many of those nukes have been used, again?

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:10PM EDT (link)

The marginal increase of additional security/nuke is so low at those numbers as to be irrelevant, especially in a unipolar world where the US utterly dominates in an economic and military sense.

As others have said, I’d rather see most of the money maintaining these nukes go towards debt retirement and advances in nuclear tech or missile defense.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 
 
 
 

During the Cold War...

renl57 Friday, February 17th at 10:32AM EDT (link)

…we heard about your “strategy of surrender”: What’s the point of retaliating if we’re doomed anyway?

What’s wrong with it is that it is unlikely that a potential enemy would launch just one wave attack–a first strike–and then stop. More likely they would try a decapitation strike–take out of military weapons and command posts–and then see what happens, holding our cities hostage to a second strike. Or even a third strike.

It’s for that reason that we created “POSTATTACK deterrence theory”–what nuclear reserves we needed even after nuclear war had broken out, in order to prevent the all-out countervalue attack on our cities that could destroy our society.

Red Dawn isn't real

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:37AM EDT (link)

First, no one is invading us. Second, who is it exactly you fear that can launch such an attack and thus needs to be deterred? Third, the economic damage of a nuclear exchange is such that it would make this recent recessions look like the 80s economic boom. Fourth, our precision guided weapons and stealth technology are likely a bigger deterrent than our nukes.

I'll Go Over Each of Your Points

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:30AM EDT (link)

1) No one is invading us because of our military strength.
2) China, Iran and middle East in general, Venezuela, Russia, much of central and south America in the future if they continue down the path of fascism.
3) Gee, by this logic no war would ever be fought. Wars destroy and create great harm –look at Somalia or Ethiopia.
4) We need all level of weapons so we can meet each threat at the appropriate level and with measured response.

Are you a doomsday prepper?

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:53AM EDT (link)

1) Wrong. No one is invading us because there are two huge oceans that separate us from our enemies, we supply like 70% of the worlds economic demand, and there are large arsenals available to all Americans in every town (ie Walmart).
2) Really? First, only China and Russia technically have the nukes to launch a large strike that would by your theory need a large arsenal to deter against. And last I checked neither of them are exactly our enemies nor would they have anything to gain from such an attack (but lots to lose).
3) There is obviously a big difference between the economic consequences of say the Iraq war and a nuclear exchange. If you don’t believe that, you simply cannot be reasoned with.
4) I am pretty sure this didn’t say we were eliminating all nukes. And even 300 is likely plenty to be able to meet a threat with a “measured response”.

You are unbelievably naive.

falconrap Friday, February 17th at 8:01PM EDT (link)

Seriously, you are ignorant of military strategy and history if you believe the stuff you are spouting. If we were blown off the face of the map, other countries would recover economically, and would continue on as they had for centuries before us. Though world conquest would make a nice come back without our deterrent.

What is really horrendously bad about your argument is that you don’t even explain why we shouldn’t have a large nuclear arsenal. After all, it’s not like we’re running around nuking people. So why shouldn’t we maintain overwhelming nuclear deterrent?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reducing our stockpiles is neither un-conservative nor Un-American. We should improve out technology while reducing the # of warheads.

joeyjojoshabadoo79 Friday, February 17th at 9:35AM EDT (link)

My two cents.

Perhaps you didn't read the post.

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:21AM EDT (link)

Obummer is cutting out the money to “improve our technology”.

Let’s see. Sixty ICBM’s, each with 5 w/h. That uses up our 300 eggs.

But wait! Each Boomer carries 10 missiles with 3 w/h each. Ten of those makes the whole egg basket.

But wait! We have surface ships with cruise missiles and aircraft-delivered w/hs by the dozen! What ablout those?

But wait! What about our strategic bomber force that reaches around the world without overseas bases. Don’t they have eggs?

But wait! Our ground troops are threatened by bio/chem weapons. We don’t have those, but have threatened to “nuke” anyone who uses them against us. This may require very low yield tacnucs. Do we give up on those and leave our boys at risk?

Gee, but the real world is complicated!

Not gonna happen

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:30AM EDT (link)

We haven’t used a nuke since 1945 and we aren’t going to again (barring an alien invasion or shooting at an income asteroid). There is simply way too much political and economic damage we would take even in a retaliatory event. We are the world leader and the world leader doesn’t nuke people (as much of a wet dream fantasy as it may be to you).

What are you talking about???

renl57 Friday, February 17th at 10:34AM EDT (link)

“The world leader doesn’t nuke people”???

We already did that. TWICE. In 1945.

And if the U.S. let a nuclear attack on our country–with perhaps millions of Americans dead–go without retaliation in kind, the U.S. wouldn’t be a world leader anymore.

No world power can turn the other cheek to a devastating attack and remain a world power.

Retaliation doesn't need to be nuclear

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:39AM EDT (link)

You keep acting as though the Cold War is still in the 1960s. We simply do not have an enemy that we need a MAD policy against. And if say an Iran launched its one nuke against an American target, I would bet (regardless of president) that the retaliation wouldn’t be nuclear, but would likely take out all the leadership of that country.

 
 
 

there is one good point here

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:07AM EDT (link)

in a field of strawmen.

The decision made by the Democrat congress to not fund improving our nuclear weapons is indefensible.

As to the rest, just because we can put 8 MIRVs in a Trident doesn’t mean we have to. If we do having a mix of conventional and nuclear Tridents on our boomers makes sense.

Strategic bombers have about zero chance of being useful as a nuclear delivery vehicles and are part of a legacy strategy.

Tactical nukes essentially went out of the inventory unilaterally in 1992 when we got rid of the nuclear 155mm artillery round. The Pershing II missile was scrapped in 1988.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

You absolutely CANNOT mix conventional and nuclear ballistic missiles on the same platform/basing area

Dave_A (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:14AM EDT (link)

Why?

Because there has to be a way that other world nuclear powers know what sort of missile is being launched…

If our subs carry conventional AND nuclear, then China, for example, will have no choice but to assume any sub-launched missile is nuclear, weather it is true or not…

If we do create conventional ballistic (a/o cruise) missiles, then we will have to have separate basing areas for them, and leave those areas open to foreign nuclear-state diplomats so that they can be verified as conventional.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

you absolutely can mix them

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:24AM EDT (link)

you might choose not to for a variety of reasons, but I have to think that a nation smart enough to design an Ohio Class boomer can probably figure out a system that will prevent a nuke going down range.

Unless you have a Russian or Chinese LNO on every sub, now that we are developing conventional Tridents, every launch is already considered nuclear. By the way, this is why we have diplomats.

Our nuclear sub facilities have been subject to treaty verification inspections since SALT I. As I would hope you know, they are only subject to verification by Russian inspectors not “foreign nuclear state diplomats.”

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 
 
 
 

Obamas repeated bowing says it all NT

benko Friday, February 17th at 9:58AM EDT (link)

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will end up plowing for those who kept their swords

ghflynt Friday, February 17th at 9:59AM EDT (link)

The reason that 300 nukes will not work is because we lose the ability to to hae an effective Triad of Submarines, Aircraft and Land-based weapons. We will end up putting all our eggs in one basket which greatly reduces the effectiveness of our deterrent force. 300 warheads would be 30 Peacekeeper missiles or 20 nuclear B-2 Bombers or 1 Ohio Class Trident Submarine. The problem here is that the force would be so small that it could be easily defeated by an aggressive anti-missile defense system and our enemies will know this. Next look for Obama to want to reduce the numbers of all of these systems which would make our enemies targeting solutions even easier. WAKE UP AMERICA! WE HAVE ELECTED A SLEEPER! OBAMA IS NOT ON OUR SIDE.

I don't think the triad concept makes any sense

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:40AM EDT (link)

at all in 2010. The manned bomber component, in particular, seems pretty silly. I’m not sure that the investment in missile silos is all that bright either. Actually the 300 nuke number… whatever the veracity of the number may be…. would be the equivalent of about 30 Tridents. I don’t know why we’d want them all on one boat.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

The 'triad' should be reduced to 2 legs....

Dave_A (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:17AM EDT (link)

Considering that the B-52 is a sitting duck these days, and is only useful as a cruise-missile platform (Something the Navy can do just fine)….

The only ‘viable’ nuclear bomber we have, is the B-2, and we have way too few of them..

B-1s are conventional-only as-per one of the original Reagan-era arms-control treaties….

Retire the 52s, save the money…. The B-1 has a bigger payload for the conventional-bomber role, and ships/subs can fire cruise missiles just as well as a B52….

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

I agree with that

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:25AM EDT (link)

absent a USSR there is no logical target for the ALCM launched from a B-52 or B-2.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 

Aren't we basically at that point already?

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:04PM EDT (link)

As you say, the B-52 is, for all intents and purposes, out of commission. We’re basically reliant on our subs and land-based platforms at this point as a de facto policy, even if there’s no DoD script floating around making that explicit.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

The Air Force is protecting the B-52 like the damn things are made of gold...

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 12:52AM EDT (link)

Cuts to the F-35 program, cuts to the Army, the Marines… But don’t retire the ancient & non-survivable B-52s…

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

I'll never forgive the B-52s

aesthete (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 1:24AM EDT (link)

for unleashing Kate Pierson on the world.

The horror.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 
 
 

We need air capability.

littlehouse18 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:20PM EDT (link)

Ships cannot move quickly to where they are needed.

so give me an example of a target

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:32PM EDT (link)

where it makes sense to hit it with a nuke from a B-2 rather than from a boomer or a land based nuclear missile.

The triad was a political accommodation from the beginning, not a military strategy. The USAF bomber community needed a mission and the Navy wanted part of the nuclear strategy dollars.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

There are a few - such as the Iran scenario...

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 12:56AM EDT (link)

Where the ability to deliver a precise, low-to-moderate-yield bomb (especially against an underground target) makes a B-2 nuke strike the best option…

However, there are none for the B-52.

The AF needs it’s B-1s and B-2s for multiple missions – there’s no reason to cut those…

However, the 52 is a dinosaur & a money pit….

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

 
 

We don't need bomber-delivered nukes to 'get there quickly'....

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 12:54AM EDT (link)

A Minuteman or Trident is a hell of a lot faster than a bomber – especially a B-52.

And for conventional weapons, ‘get there fast’ means B-1….

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

 
 
 
 

I haven't done the study, but...

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:21AM EDT (link)

My guess is that anything less than about 30 ICBMs and the force becomes not a detergent but a tempting target. Same with the strat bomber force. Similarly, anything less than 9 pig boats and 9 carrier groups means we are unable to maintain a deployed deterrent. And that’s not counting the tacnucs backing up the ground pounders.

this is a strawman

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:37AM EDT (link)

you are assuming that there are ten warheads on each missile.There is no reason why that has to be so. MIRVing was created so you could deliver several thousand warheads quickly. That need is no longer there. Most of the area we targeted during the Cold War are now friendly countries.

Tactical nukes disappeared with the decommissioning of nuclear 155mm artillery batteries in 1991/2

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 
 

Current World Nuclear Arsenals By Country From CDI.ORG

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:00AM EDT (link)

http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/nukestab.html

China
410

France
464

India
60+?

Israel
200+?

Pakistan
15-25?

Russia
~10,000

United Kingdom
185

United States
~10,500

Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler

Even if this was ever accurate

kelp Friday, February 17th at 10:20AM EDT (link)

which is doubtful, this is data from 1997.

Here are the actual numbers, released in Sept 2011 by Russia and the US: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/rls/175945.htm

In 2010, the gov revealed that we have 5113 warheads in total (including stockpiles), but the cuts we are discussing are for deployed warheads.

 
 

So very misleading...

kelp Friday, February 17th at 10:16AM EDT (link)

… and that is being generous.

“Yesterday, we heard the news that Obama would like to reduce our tactical nuclear weapons arsenal from 5,000 warheads to just a few hundred.”

For starters, the US does not have close to 5,000 warheads deployed (the number being discussed). Last year we had 1790. Second, the plans being discussed cover a range of numbers, your claim of “just a few hundred” is only the worst case figure. Finally, you state that “Obama would like” to achieve this worst case scenario despite the fact that your own cited source confirms that none of these plans have been presented to him.. The WsJ describes it as talks among lower-level officials” at the Pentagon.

There are far better and legitimate arguments against Obama’s foreign policy

You expect accuracy?

sharrondeer (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:29AM EDT (link)

n/t

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence. — John Adams.

 

completely agree

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:57AM EDT (link)

there is enough about Obama’s foreign and defense policy to disagree with without defending a weapons stockpile that doesn’t’ have a logical use.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 

Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!

weyland Friday, February 17th at 10:28AM EDT (link)

n/t

I have been banned from RedState as tarnover and aardpig and I’m not very bright.

 

I'm not sure I agree with very much of this

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:29AM EDT (link)

the only real purpose of our nuclear weapons is to deter someone else from using theirs as a threat. That someone is limited to exactly two powers: Russia and Communist China.

If Iran shot a nuke at us we’d really have to suck it up and carry out conventional attacks. The country is simply too small to absorb a strike by our existing nuclear stockpile without irradiating a lot of our friends… or other people with lots of nukes who we’d rather not make unnecessarily angry. Ditto North Korea.

There is a logical need for small yield earth penetrators — because we can’t reach Iran’s or DPRK’s underground nuclear facilities with anything we currently have — but their development was stopped in 2007/08.

The question then becomes how many do you need to make a nuclear attack on the US too painful to contemplate? I’d suggest you don’t need a whole lot. The term overkill was invented for a reason.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

Leaders don't like to die

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:33AM EDT (link)

and since we would obviously target the leaders of whatever country shot a nuke at us (whether with nukes or conventional methods), that is likely a bigger deterrence than the so called mutually assured destruction (on a national level), as if the Chinese or Iranian leaders care about what happens to their people in the first place.

What if you can't get them?

renl57 Friday, February 17th at 10:38AM EDT (link)

It took us TEN years to get Osama bin Laden. What if the Iranian leaders escaped to unknown locations as soon as they launched the nukes? (After all, that’s what we do–the President is taken to a secure location so he can continue to direct our forces.)

In the meantime, we’re talking about Iran having nuked us, with effects perhaps three orders of magnitude worse than 9-11. While you’re willing to let that injustice go unpunished–for years? The U.S. would be finished as a world superpower if it turned the other cheek as you’re suggesting.

Give me a break.

Hillary–who’s not a conservative–said in 2008 that if North Korea nuked the U.S., the result would be their obliteration.

But then Hillary is a lot tougher than Obama. And unlike today’s limp-wristed liberals, her husband never felt that weapons were icky.

Nope you are right

Death_of_the_Donkey (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:42AM EDT (link)

we should just wipe out 20 million otherwise innocent Iranians instead. That would go over well politically and economically. And I am sure Iran’s neighbors would love the fallout raining down on them or the rest of the world love the $300/barrel oil that would result. So, sure we could fulfill your fantasy and nuke the Iranians only to see the destruction of the US from the resulting economic damage.

 

their leaders aren't really a problem

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:46AM EDT (link)

and obliteration does not imply the use of nukes. Vaporizing several million noncombatants and irradiating several friendly nations is hardly justice.

You really need to work on your reading comprehension.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 

If Iran released a nuclear weapon against the US...

Dave_A (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:34AM EDT (link)

We’d have to nuke SOMETHING in response – probably the best targets would be their underground nuclear research facilities, using higher-yield penetrators left over from the cold war (Delivered by B-2)….

Mutually assured destruction of the regime, would require a land invasion & WWII-style punitive occupation.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

I agree we'd do something, I just don't think

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:54AM EDT (link)

that something would involve nukes. I think a land invasion is exactly what we’d do.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

Sounds like a good plan ...

acat (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:57AM EDT (link)

especially if we go in with the steel fist, not the velvet glove we used in Iraq.

Mew

——
self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

 

That's exactly what we did not want in WWII against Japan.

littlehouse18 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:25PM EDT (link)

We wanted to get the war over with with as few American casualties as possible.

I'm just checking my calendar and it says 2012

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:29PM EDT (link)

Your logic is fine if you ignore Korea and Vietnam.. Otherwise, not so much.

We will not use nukes short of an existential threat to the United States. No one outside Russia possesses that level of threat at this time

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 

Japan presented a potential death-toll over a million....

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 1:02AM EDT (link)

How many men did we lose in OIF-1 (2003 invasion)?

Japan was a difficult opponent, Iran doesn’t have the capability to do that kind of damage to our heavy ground forces….

Like I said before, if Iran nuked us, we’d have to nuke something in Iran, but only to sustain MAD & prove that we still have the will to deploy nukes…

The real punishment, would be invasion & occupation….

And yes, we would be perfectly clear & justified to use the full might of our conventional forces – We wouldn’t be liberating an oppressed nation backed by a broken & demoralized military, we’d be destroying an enemy in open warfare….

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

Iran is a danger to Western Civilization

jamesm (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 1:40AM EDT (link)

Their government is comprised of shia muslims. They believe in the coming of the mahdi. Do some research.

“Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character.” A. Einstein

Iran is a 3rd-world nation with obselete military hardware....

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 9:21AM EDT (link)

No amount of ‘belief’ can protect them from our weapons.

Japan was a world power, with a highly motivated, well-equipped (for the 40s) and well-trained military – and a population ready to fight along side their troops to the last Japanese alive.

Iran has none of the above, and it’s less of a concern for us due to the equipment-overmatch, anyhow. They’re stronger than Iraq was in 2003, granted (closer to 1991 Iraq)… But we’ve still got a counter for every tactic they’ll use… Human wave? Massed artillery & tanks firing canister shot… IEDs? We’re pretty good at dealing with those… Trying to close the Strait of Hormuz? The Navy’s been training to deal with that one since the 80s…

Iran is a threat in that they can sponsor terrorism & disrupt peacetime life. They are not a ‘force to be reckoned with’ like the Imperial Japanese Army was in the 40s.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

correct on all points

kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 9:27AM EDT (link)

And it pains me to see the war hawks trying to use this backward nation as an excuse to ratchet up more wasteful spending, (or in this case opposing cuts).

The other boogie man they use is China, notwithstanding that China has not in any way threatened us or been anything but a trade partner in the last thirty years.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

Kyle8: I'm a 'war hawk' myself.... And a Soldier...

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 9:39AM EDT (link)

I want to see Iran dealt with, however I have to be realistic about the threat we face from them.

They are a problem.

And they are too dangerous to be allowed into the nuclear-club…

However, they are not such a huge threat, that we have to be prepared to burn the sand & melt them off the face of the earth, as if they were the next USSR.

The issue of new weapons & more defense spending, is a separate one – something that we have to face simply because our current front-line systems were designed under Carter & fielded under Reagan.

Our aircraft are reaching airframe end-of-life (hence F-15s falling apart in flight), our tanks & ground vehicles still use analog technology & hydraulics, where digital tech & electric drive would be a huge weight & performance improvement…

The Navy is probably the most ‘up to date’ of the services, but even they need modernization & a plan for ship-replacement going forward….

We’ve spent a good amount of money since 2001, but most of it has been on technology only suited for COIN ops – MRAPs, armed drones, and various ISR gadgetry…

The last time we put any real effort into our accross-the-board conventional forces, was Reagan’s buildup.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

It is difficult to modernize a

kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 10:28AM EDT (link)

really enormous force. The force structure must be small enough so that we can afford the modernization.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

We are hardly an enormous force...

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 11:27AM EDT (link)

In fact, we’re significantly undersize, and have been since 1992.

The total manpower of the DoD is less than 1% of the US population.

Our active Army is right around 520k troops.

That’s not enormous.

All that shrinking the active components does, is place a greater strain on the reserves & require greater spending once a war starts (to plus up numbers temporarily).

Also, the folks who end up in charge of the cuts, are the ‘garrison soldiers’ (like the present Sgt Major of the Army) who’s perspective has been largely ignored during wartime.

They will favor policies that retain their fellow ‘looks right, is right’ parade-ground troops who spent their overseas tours complaining about what shoulder the reflective belt is worn on, over the combat veterans who could care less about a splotch of track grease on your uniform…

We need to maintain our current force, with an emphasis on keeping the E-4 to E-7 and O-1 to O-4 combat veterans. There is very little room to cut.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

 
 
 
 

From all accounts Iran has enough material

jamesm (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 9:30AM EDT (link)

for four nuclear bombs. They have said they will “wipe Israel off the map” and “Death to America” If not stopped they will use them.

“Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character.” A. Einstein

In the first place I think they already have a few nukes

kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 10:23AM EDT (link)

The Russians “misplaced” A few and one day, all of a sudden Putin started batting for Iran in the UN. I don’t think that is a coincidence.

And I do not think they will use a nuclear weapon because all of this talk about their religious ideas has not made the old men who run the place risk their own lives in Jihad. They will use nukes as a way to threaten their neighbors to try and get what they want.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

I have heard that

jamesm (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 11:50AM EDT (link)

they may have but they do not have the delivery system. Most credible sources say they do not. I don’t know. As for them using them-they will threaten their neighbors, for sure.They hate Israel and along with their neighbors will launch a war to annihilate Israel. Just a matter of time. Most likely with conventional forces first and then they will use them. The hatred has been going on for centuries. These true believers will not stop. Martyrdom in the name of Allah.

“Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character.” A. Einstein

I don't see the martyrdom part

kyle8 (Diary) Sunday, February 19th at 8:33AM EDT (link)

martyrdom is for those relatively few brainwashed young people, I never see any of these mullahs, and imans actually blowing themselves up.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

GEEZ, Your Ignorance is Amazing. Don't You Read Posts Here on Redstate?

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:46AM EDT (link)

OK. The leader of Iran, Ahmadinejad, believes in the 12th Imam. That is, the second coming of Muhammad. He believes the more chaos that created in the world, the quicker that Muhammad will return. Gee, should a man who believes that chaos will hasten the return, really have nuclear weapons? Do you think such a person would give a damn if they die?

Maybe I was wrong. Maybe you are a fool not just ignorant.

this makes a compelling case for why Iran

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:55AM EDT (link)

should not be allowed to develop nukes. It also makes a very strong case as to why nukes will not deter them. So I’m not sure how either of those arguments supports the idea that more US nukes is a good defense policy.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 

You might want to get your facts straight, quill....

Dave_A (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:40AM EDT (link)

1) The leader of Iran is the Supreme Leader – Ali Khamenei, not the President. The office of President is a puppet position with no real power.

2) ‘Twelvers’ are anticipating the return of the 12th Imam – but that’s not Mohammed, it’s Ali.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

Maybe You Did Not Know that Ahmadinejad Is Gaining Power

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:24PM EDT (link)

Here is an article that should set you straight: Is Ahmadinejad’s team planning a military coup in Iran?

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/30/174443.html

Hardly a puppet. (Even though you are correct in that the Supreme Leader wanted the Presidency to be a puppet position)

 

Maybe You Did Not Know that Ahmadinejad Is Gaining Power

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:24PM EDT (link)

Here is an article that should set you straight: Is Ahmadinejad’s team planning a military coup in Iran?

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/30/174443.html

Hardly a puppet. (Even though you are correct in that the Supreme Leader wanted the Presidency to be a puppet position)

 

Do either of these points really matter?

littlehouse18 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:27PM EDT (link)
 
 
 

Too Small??? Iran is the 18th largest country in the world with land mass roughly equal to that of the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Germany combined

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:38AM EDT (link)

So they are hardly a small country.

read the whole sentence

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 10:43AM EDT (link)

and stop being a jerk.

Iran is too small to absorb the effects of any of our land or sea based nukes. I really don’t care how many times bigger they are than Lichtenstein.

We simply aren’t going to irradiate Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and assorted -stans for the satisfaction of popping a nuke on Tehran. If you think otherwise I really don’t know why you are in this discussion.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 

You really are stuck on that "nuclear winter" ...

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:35AM EDT (link)

Stuff, aren’t you. One Kaboom and it’s “On The Beach”! Modern weapons come in all sizes, shapes and effects.

On the other hand, maybe we can just advertise it as our response to “Global Warming”!

this is silliness on stilts

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:49AM EDT (link)

first a bit of advice. I’ll defend most anything I post. What I will not tolerate is you making up things and attributing them to me. Do it again and you are gone. I hope I am making this clear enough for you.

1. I don’t believe in nuclear winter.

2. Having passed high school chemistry, I do believe in radioactivity. YMMV

3. Having passed high school physics, I do believe dust particles, even radioactive ones, can be pushed high into the atmosphere by a nuclear blast and moved by winds. Again YMMV and obviously does.

4. Putting those two bits on knowledge together plus an Army and a NATO nuke targeting course I am certain beyond all doubt that a standard nuke will toss radiation onto one or more of Iran’s neighbors.

This is apparently of no concern to you and several other people commenting on this story but I’m real sure that sane people everywhere do care.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 
 

Mr. Horowitz, you are wrong.

inovrmihd Friday, February 17th at 11:24AM EDT (link)

I don’t beleive for a second that he is doing this becasue he thinks it is good policy. He is getting somethingin return. It may be cooperation on Iran, some economic help in terms of opening up markets, or something else.

He may well believe this will appease Iran.

littlehouse18 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:30PM EDT (link)

And he is wrong.

There is nothing that will appease Iran.

 
 

Lest we forget one key fact of this article...

harlan Friday, February 17th at 11:29AM EDT (link)

“Well, it turns out that obama lied.”

…again.

Another key fact that has not been addressed

Scope (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 12:04PM EDT (link)

in any of the comments I’ve read is the fact that Obama never modernized the ICBM’s or the infrastructure required to maintain them. There was an article from The Heritage Foundation back in 2010, before the new START treaty was voted on and signed by Obama. The author warned about the dangers of an aging arsenal and infrastructure, including some major screw ups with the ICBM’s during the current Howdy Doody administration. Does it matter if we have 5,000 or 300 ICBM’s if all of them are duds, and the system available to use them, if necessary, is obsolete.

To say that Obama and the liberals make a habit of breaking their promises is an understatement. Obama promised that if the Republicans would agree to his new START treaty he would modernize the system, and appropriate the money to accomplish that, and they believed him and voted for it. He promised Bart Stupak that abortion would not be a part of Obamacare, and he broke that promise also. He promised to cut the deficit in half in his first term and ……..you get the gist.

that, of course, is the real issue

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 12:12PM EDT (link)

absent a testing and modernization program , the number of weapons is pretty irrelevant.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

Also streiff- What about Obama cancelling

Scope (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 12:24PM EDT (link)

the missile defense system that Bush was working on? Didn’t he do that to appease the Russian’s just prior to Hillary’s Russian visit with her big red reset button, that said something about getting big discounts or some such. Wouldn’t it be a much bigger deterrent to our enemies to know that what ever they fired would be shot down before it hit it’s target?

Another thought on the ICBM’s is to house them in various locations (if they aren’t already), much like Syria has it’s chemical weapons stored in many various parts of the country. You would have to blow up the whole country to get all of the Chemical Weapons stockpiles in Syria.

one would think so

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 12:26PM EDT (link)

nt

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 

We have several known sites for our ICBMs

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:01PM EDT (link)

plenty of mobile delivery systems for our nukes (subs, for example), and a huge country that makes getting to all or most of our nukes impossible.

There’s absolutely no fear that we will suddenly lose our nuclear capabilities.

The development of our missile defense tech is still proceeding apace — what Obama cancelled was our arrangements with Eastern European countries to establish missile defense systems in their countries, and to coordinate missile defense with them. Not a good call on his part.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

Do Not Completely Disagree but I Cannot Help But Think of the Maginot Line

quill67 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:13PM EDT (link)

(French) Military experts extolled the Maginot Line as a work of genius, believing it would prevent any further invasions from the east (notably, from Germany)

They were wrong.

We cannot afford to be wrong about our nuclear deterent.

That's the problem with vague generalities and platitudes

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:41PM EDT (link)

You can’t really use them for much.

I’m open to looking at any informed criticism of a reduction in our nuclear stockpile, and I’m in favor of increasing funding for more and better delivery systems. So far, I haven’t seen any specific evidence that this is an unwise course of action — just historical allusions that may or may not fit. Is it possible that MAD is our Maginot Line? Sure, but I’d like to see evidence of such before abandoning a real-world observation which has proven true for 60+ years.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 

Particularly when one considers EMP

JSobieski (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:41PM EDT (link)

I know that weapon systems and such can and are shielded against a potential EMP. However, it would take relatively few nuclear detonations to create an EMP that covers the entire US.

To me an EMP threat is a more likely threat, because the killing is indirect.

Would the US destroy a city (and all its inhabitants) because a nation or group put us back into the late 1800s?

This is a question I find horrifying because it suggests that an EMP oriented attack is far more likely to be attempted.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

The US invaded two countries

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:55PM EDT (link)

on account of an attack that took out a skyscraper. Several countries helped us in both endeavors. Betting against the fighting spirit of Americans following a direct attack is a losing move. Countries that don’t see this probably won’t be deterred just because we have 300 nukes, instead of ~2000.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

Agreed. My point was that all of the following are more important to deterrence than raw numbers

JSobieski (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 6:08PM EDT (link)

presuming that we have some minimal threshold:

(1) The ability to launch a substantial number of missiles from nuclear submarines that can be located anywhere in the world

(2) The ability to have a realistic shot of shooting down a missile before it hits

(3) The psychological impression that we wouldn’t simply take it lying down

All three of the above are more important than the numerical aspect of the reduction.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

Yes, agreed

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 6:59PM EDT (link)

which is why I favor research into both missile defense and advanced delivery systems.

I don’t think that defending against a nuclear attack has high priority when MAD is still the name of the game, but it does have some priority. A 95+% accuracy ICBM defense network would certainly be a game-changer.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 
 
 

We are not adapted for the late 1800s.

littlehouse18 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:39PM EDT (link)

So we really don’t even have the antique technology that would enable us to survive in conditions of that time period. Estimates are that three-quarters of our population would die of the effects of an EMP. That’s a bit more than Pearl Harbor, I would say.

EMP kills?

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:48PM EDT (link)

don’t think so. I think you’re confusing ERW http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_bomb wotj EMP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

streiff...just think of all the

From ME to You (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 3:32PM EDT (link)

applebots who would commit hari-kari because the internet failed!

;-0 LOL

Photobucket

so there is an upside to nuclear war

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 3:34PM EDT (link)

I hadn’t considered that possibility.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 

It is precisely the lack of immediate fatality that makes EMP a concern

JSobieski (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 6:14PM EDT (link)

Contrary to what Aesthete said above—we didn’t got to war because a couple of buildings were destroyed. We went to war because thousands of Americans were killed.

An EMP would kill many . . . after the fact due to starvation and lack of a basic modern infrastructure. However, the more remote linkage could very well temper the response, which conversely makes such an attack more of a concern.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

I find that dubious, JSob

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 6:55PM EDT (link)

The sinking of the Maine, Texas’ border skirmish with Mexico, the sinking of the Lusitania — the American people have supported war over far less direct attacks than an EMP burst. Even 9/11 was a far less direct attack from Afghanistan to the US than an EMP attack from a nation-state against our country would be. An EMP burst would be the most destructive attack suffered by American citizens on American soil since the Civil War. The second that some American kid starves to death because of an Iranian or Chinese EMP, is the second that either country becomes rubble, or something close to it, IMO. Our politicians and our people both like war, and are pretty good at it.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

None of the events you described deterred OBL

JSobieski (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 3:55PM EDT (link)

His calculation was undoubtedly that we would bomb an aspirin factory or two and call it a day.

I agree with you that evil doers underestimate Americans, but give that the issue is deterrence (a concept grounded in perception), the fact that others underestimate us is small comfort.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

There's no amount of deterrence

aesthete (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 4:22PM EDT (link)

that will stop nutters like OBL: if you believe that God is on your side and that the heathens are destined to fail regardless, then there is no such thing as deterrence. For goodness sake, the Soviets were no pushovers when it came to crushing dissent or responding to threats, and the various fundamentalist groups still fought them in Afghanistan! OBL and co had to have known that they wouldn’t have responded by bombing a few aspirin factories! To quote one of my favorite books, “When religion and politics travel in the same cart, the riders believe nothing can stand in their way.” It’s part of the reason that an Iranian nuke could be potentially worrisome: with religious fanatics at the helm convinced of eternal rewards awaiting them, MAD need not apply.

I do agree that we need to be more consistent in our responses and keep incentives in mind, but I think that’s immaterial to the discussion of how many nukes we have or need.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

The differences between OBL and Iran should not be overestimated

JSobieski (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 6:50PM EDT (link)

On the issue of number of nukes—we agree. As stated above, I think the number of nukes (even if reduced to 300 unilaterally) is not as important as numerous other factors.

However, It would appear that we disagree on several nuances that relate to the broader issue. I do look at deterrence in a broader sense then you do. I think you underestimate the extent to which our enemies underestimate us. Again, its not so much capability as psychology and will. People like Hussain, OBL, Stalin, et al just don’t respect the American spirit, and this is one instance where being underestimated is not desirable.

P.S. Bombing an aspirin factory is precisely what Clinton did in response to the attaack on the Cole. That was the end of it.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

I think some of the psychology is important

aesthete (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 8:10PM EDT (link)

but that it probably determines less of our religious enemies’ actions than is commonly assumed.

Would OBL have been less aggressive in his terror attacks if Clinton had been more firm in Iraq and Somalia? Maybe — but given the 1991 WTC bombings and past precedent, I don’t think that can be proven.

Going back further, would Islamic terror groups have been as aggressive if Reagan hadn’t withdrawn our troops from Lebanon? Again, maybe — but I just don’t see any evidence for such.

It is telling that in the wake of the near-complete destruction of Al-Qaeda as an organization and the obliteration of its senior leadership, its remnants are still attempting terror attacks of various types against us. My opinion? Religious fanatics will always oppose us

Vis a vis Iran, one of two things is true: either the religious messianic beliefs that it professes belief in are followed by senior leadership to the extent that the will choose regime extinction if they feel that they can do enough damage, or they are a rational regime masquerading themselves as religious fanatics. If the former is true, there’s very little that deterrence can do: as long as the regime is in charge, path dependence will dictate their actions. If the latter is true, then they still have very rational reasons for pursuing nuclear weapons, and the incentives which we have been providing thus far are not good ones — and certainly won’t dissuade them from their course. In either case, I think containment is our best bet: it limits the export of Iran’s ideology, and of course makes their regional goals very difficult to achieve. It has its problems (primarily, that Russia and China might not be willing to cooperate), but is likely the best of a series of bad options.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

many metrics matter re US deterrence depending on the potential enemy and 300 would be criminally low

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 8:26PM EDT (link)

The psychology does matter and the extent of the presence of the Navy on the high seas and the determination to maintain a superior # of warheads sends a much bigger message than the isolated acts of killing UBLs…

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com and Charlotte Observer columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

EMP makes for a good sci-fi thriller, not a realistic threat....

Dave_A (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 11:38AM EDT (link)

First off, the only things susceptible to EMP damage are those that plug into the grid, and those that have antennae… Anything that’s unplugged would be fine, anything that’s electrically isolated (see cars, below) would be fine…

Modern cars are immune, for example – this has been proven by scientific experiments….

Second, the technology to create an ‘EMP effect covering the entire USA’ is only available to major nuclear powers – Russia and China.

It requires high-yield (multi-megaton) warheads, and ICBMs to deliver them – a warhead detonated near the ground (and in practical terms, anywhere that an airplane can fly is ‘near the ground) has an EMP area-of-effect that is close to or within the blast-radius.

The survival-fiction ‘method’ of ‘launching a scud straight up’ fails on multiple accounts: First, a ‘scud’ type missile can’t carry a big enough warhead, and second, the maximum altitude (even if launched ‘straight up’ – something that is not really practical to do, as the missiles are designed to follow a ballistic trajectory – is insufficient)….

The only time an EMP attack would be used, is to clear the way for conventional warheads coming in right behind it – it’s not a viable tactic in and of itself.

Economic illiteracy does not serve our cause – seeing inflation where there is none, claiming ‘the deficit’ is raising the price of oil, or adhering to conspiracy theories such as the notion that the Fed’s purpose is to enable government spending….

The truth is just as damning to the Democrats – namely that their policies are the reason that the very ‘speculators’ (futures traders) they demonize are bidding higher prices for oil.

Some of what you say is true . . . for now

JSobieski (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 3:59PM EDT (link)

Of course, nobody (except writers of fiction) anticipated that hijacked airplanes would be used as missiles either.

If you have link re: modern cars, I would love to see it.

I think the last sentence is your most aggregious tactical error. For a country like Iran, taking the US out would be their goal—not taking us over.

I humbly suggest that evil doers are capable of creativity, and may have goals and attitudes that fall outside your narrowly structured parameters.

Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf

What would the immediate response be?

aesthete (Diary) Saturday, February 18th at 4:31PM EDT (link)

We have forces and carrier groups deployed in the ME and elsewhere in the world, and it is unlikely that our European allies or regional ME polities would take this laying down — if merely out of self-preservation, the economic damage that would ensue, and preservation of MAD. Even if Iran could do what you’ve described (and they won’t be anywhere near that point in terms of delivery systems, warhead yield, or economic capability of carrying out such an attack for quite some time), and even if the response were not nuclear, they would be crushed by conventional forces in a matter of weeks.

There are easier ways to take the US out of the picture temporarily that would be far less damaging to Iran and have a greater surety of success — such as sucking up to a weak President, taking advantage of a US involved in turf wars elsewhere, finding something to exchange with us, or simply having a certain amount of nuclear ordinance for deterrence. It all depends on what Iran seeks to accomplish abroad, but I think that they could more easily survive even a direct nuclear attack on Israel, than an EMP attack on the US homeland.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 
 
 
 

I'm trying hard to find the analogy here

streiff (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 2:11PM EDT (link)

but am failing.

“What keeps me here is the reek of beer, the ladies and the craic”

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

No... we have to reset

davenj1 (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 11:55AM EDT (link)

our nuclear defense policy from one of a Cold War era paradigm to one that adequately faces the realities of today. That is why Obama selling out the Czech and Polish governments on a missile defense system is outrageous and dangerous. In short, a tactical nuclear and conventional umbrella over our national interests is important. We can debate “our national interests” in due course. Unilateral disarmament until we reset our policy is foolish and dangerous. Once defined, then we could assess an adequate number of warheads, platforms, and delivery systems.

Outrageous? Maybe

aesthete (Diary) Friday, February 17th at 1:01PM EDT (link)

Dangerous? Not really.

“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke

 
 

the only chance of the Pres keeping a promise

talgus Friday, February 17th at 2:42PM EDT (link)

Is if it involves his left wing buddies. Not a chance of a promise to uphold anything conservative will ever last longer than the next campaign speech.