I’m biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I’d say that even if they didn’t send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . . . say . . . should states ban birth control.

Let me tell you first who lost the debate because it was in a moment with Wolf Blitzer. There was a moment he asked Newt Gingrich about Romney’s tax returns and Newt tried to say the question was inconsequential. He tied his napkin around his neck, pulled up his fork and knife, and was just about to sink his teeth into Wolf when Wolf pushed again. The crowd heckled Blitzer. Gingrich drooled over the moderator he was about to consume. “Wanna try again,” he asked mischievously. Wolf Blitzer, instead of hopping on Newt’s plate pushed once more, pointing out Gingrich had, just this week, attacked Romney on these things. The crowd reacted a bit and Gingrich suddenly tried to get everyone on stage to call a truce. Romney had none of it, instead calling on Gingrich to, in effect, man up and say to Mitt’s face the things he says elsewhere.

The crowd turned on Newt. They laughed. They jeered. Blitzer, saved from the jowls of moderator eater, went straight in to a tax question based on Romney’s taxes and Newt’s tax plan with Newt still on defense from the prior question. The moderator ate Newt. Live by the debate, die by the debate, and Newt Gingrich died in some clever rhetoric, losing the crowd both in that instance and on Mitt Romney’s stock ownership.

Mitt Romney won the debate. He and Gingrich behaved like petulant children, but Romney got under Newt’s skin in a way Newt did not get under Romney’s skin and Newt came off looking the lesser of the two. Additionally, Mitt Romney finally offered up a bold and clear answer on his wealth with a strong defense of capitalism and self-made men. There was no apology and no defense. It was precisely what he needed to do.

Though he may have won, Rick Santorum had the best night of any candidate and though Romney won on points, Santorum won on style and substance. He offered up the strongest attack yet on Romneycare, pointing out how if Romney is the nominee we cede an important line of attack on Obamacare. He rattled Romney in a way Newt did not. He acted like the adult in the room. He got himself some supporters from Newt Gingrich I’m pretty sure.

Then there was Ron Paul. Many of us quickly dismiss Ron Paul, but his performance was stellar. He offered extremely sound responses on healthcare, education, border security, and more. Very few of the questions were on foreign policy, which is where he tends to go off the reservation. Last night he came off as warm, funny, and right on the mark. It was his best debate performance. Santorum and Paul benefited from Romney and Gingrich’s constant bickering.

But Romney did what he had to do. He stopped any swing back from Gingrich. His performance more likely than not helped him secure Florida unless Gingrich can pour in money and manpower in the next 24 hours.

RedState Morning Briefing
January 26, 2012

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All the members of the Republican Party who have been complicit and collaborative in the destruction of our nation in the past few decades always talking about smaller government while never fighting against the tide of creeping socialism have now come out against Newt Gingrich.

Yesterday, at National Review, Elliot Abrams attacked Newt Gingrich for attacking Ronald Reagan from the right.

Today, it is Bob Dole’s turn.

Bob Dole, you will remember from George Stephanoupolos’s memoir of his time in Clinton’s White House, totally cut the legs out from under Newt Gingrich and House Republicans during the government shut down. According to the Democrats, they were within twenty-four hours of caving to the House Republicans’ demands, but Bob Dole surprised them all by caving first.

Dole went on to lose to Bill Clinton and still hates Newt Gingrich for it because Gingrich was the face used to attack Dole — a man who would have been the hero in the fight had Dole not caved.

And we’re supposed to hate Newt Gingrich because Bob Dole caved to the Democrats twenty-four hours before they were going to cave to Gingrich?

Pffffft.

The fix is in for Romney, which just means when he is crushed by Barack Obama a lot of Republicans will have a lot of explaining to do. Newt may not be able to win. But Romney sure as hell can’t beat Obama either if Newt can’t win. The problem remains — Gingrich supporters intrinsically know this to be so and are happy to die fighting. Romney’s supporters are still deluding themselves.

In 2010, Barack Obama touted Solyndra’s solar panels in his State of the Union speech. We know what happened to Solyndra.

In this week’s State of the Union, Barack Obama touted Ener1′s electric car batteries. Today, Ener1 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Also in Barack Obama’s State of the Union this week, he touted Masterlock and the high productivity of its unionized workforce.

Given the odds, if you own stock in Masterlock, you might want to sell.

This is it. The final debate before Florida will be tonight from Jacksonville, FL on CNN. It may be the final debate of the primary season. If it becomes just Mitt, Newt, and Ron, there is no way that MItt Romney will want to share the stage with them after tonight.

I’ll be on CNN for post debate coverage, though I’ll be in Atlanta tonight. All you need to know is that the latest CNN poll has something like a 22 point swing toward Newt Gingrich, but a lot of post South Carolina polling settled back down from irrational exuberance to Romney still ahead.

Tonight, expect a concerted Romney effort to bring out the really angry Newt. Expect Gingrich to try to throw off Romney. In fact, we may not hear from Santorum and Paul unless they get called on. This is all the Mitt and Newt show. They don’t like each other and both have a lot on the line.

One wild card factor — does Rick Santorum stay in? There are rumors circulating he may drop out before Florida because he is out of money. His campaign says no. But we’ll see. If he leaves, polls show most of his voters go to Gingrich, but I’m not sure that’s actually right.

We’ll get into it all below the fold.

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RedState Morning Briefing
January 26, 2012

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Being a Presbyterian, I knew this email was coming. It was predestined.

From: m.weichers111@gmail.com
Subject: Erickson
Date: January 25, 2012 12:13:57 AM EST
To: Contact@redstate.com

Erickson is the biggest religious bigot in this country. I am going to expose him to the world. I promise.

As Ben Domenech notes in his Transom, Mitt Romney’s advisors have now advised him to support “a $2 gas tax, a VAT, and open Taliban talks.” Add to that list not repealing Obamacare. Norm Coleman, an advisor to Romney, went on record saying

We’re not going to do repeal. You’re not going to repeal Obamacare… It’s not a total repeal… You will not repeal the act in its entirety, but you will see major changes, particularly if there is a Republican president… You can’t whole-cloth throw it out. But you can substantially change what’s been done.

We’ve had this dribble out at the Romney Fan Club over at National Review too — just fix it, don’t repeal it. There are practical reasons for doing so, but we should not lose our perspective. The base of the Republican party is energized by the prospects of complete repeal. All the candidates have said they would repeal it. Mitt Romney, within the past two years, flipped his position going from nibbling to full repeal.

In the South Carolina debate on CNN last week, Newt Gingrich said he did not trust the congressional staffs (plural) and would therefore insist on full repeal via reconciliation, which is how the Democrats passed it in the first place through the Senate. His was a wise point. The congressional staffs, both Democrat and Republican, have started functioning as an entrenched legislative branch bureaucracy both doing what they think best for the country even when the voters want otherwise.

In fact, the entrenched legislative bureaucracy has a great deal to do with congressional disapproval in the public. Republican staffers want to inch the ball down the field instead of fighting. Democrat staffers are far more aggressive.

If a Republican gets into the White House and does not sweat blood trying to repeal Obamacare in its entirety (regardless of success), I predict the end of the Republican Party legitimately. It won’t be worth fighting for if the party itself does not think it worth fighting for its voters. If the GOP takes back the White House, it’s voters will expect a real fight, not a half-hearted attempt.

There need not be 7000 words, the length of the President’s speech, to break it down for you.

John F. Kennedy said, “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.”

Barack Obama’s State of the Union is all about letting you know that government is going to do everything for you and when it can’t keep its promises, it will take from the successful and give to you.

1000 days without the Democrats passing a budget, the President never really even brought it up last night. Then there’s healthcare. The President spent two sentences – a mere 44 words – talking about his greatest legacy, now headed before the Supreme Court, 5 justices from which sat in front of him last night. The first reference didn’t come until 39 minutes into his speech. I thought he was proud of it.

The first half of his speech was about centralized power in Washington and the second half was about devolving power to the states and deregulation — trying to be all things to all people. But his actual proposals were one size fits all federal fiat with sops to unionization and swing states. He must be really worried about North Carolina given how many shout outs that state got.

President Obama, in his State of the Union address, was light on the details of his laundry list, but at essence embraced the title of Food Stamp President that Newt Gingrich has given him. He wants a public and business community dependent on Washington. He wants a devalued high school diploma and an over valued college degree priced out of reach of the average person except through government run programs and subsidies.

The happy class warrior is off to ensure fairness not at the starting line, but by punishing those who cross the finish line first or with more. But “teachers matter”, he got Osama Bin Laden, and kids won’t be able to drop out of school anymore — they’ll just clog the system.

So there is that.

RedState Morning Briefing
January 25, 2012

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I am a firm believer that primaries make stronger candidates. But at some point you just have to stand back, take a sip of bourbon, and sigh “Damn” under your breath as you behold the carnage being wrought within the Republican Party.

The fight has gotten so bitter and acrimonious with only three states chosen because neither side thinks the other side can win. Gingrich supporters understand that the secularists in the media — not the Democrats, but the media to the extent it can be separated from the Obama Machine — will spend six months creeping out independent suburban voters about Mormons, holy underwear, Kolob, postmortem baptism, and views on black people and then, as the coup de grace, Barack Obama will fire up millions of dollars of ads on Bain Capital raiding pension funds forcing the government to cover the debt so Mitt Romney could make millions whether he won or lost a deal.

Romney supporters understand Newt Gingrich will open his mouth.

Mitt Romney will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Barack Obama will do to him. Newt Gingrich will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Newt Gingrich will do to himself. That’s the simple truth. Both men will have amazingly difficult times beating Barack Obama. It is possible, but probability never favors picking off an incumbent just for starters.

About the only real difference between the Gingrich and Romney camps is that the Gingrich camp intuitive understands this and is happy to go down with a fighter. The Romney camp is still deluded into thinking a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts who can’t win Iowa twice in a primary is somehow electable.

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RedState Morning Briefing
January 24, 2012

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A friend of mine pointed out this morning that Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich $7 million to $.0008 million in Florida just to watch his 15 pt lead implode overnight.

The Republican base does not trust Mitt Romney. Because they do not trust him, they do not like him as a candidate. His campaign, all too clever to try to sit on an ephemeral lead that any outside observer could see was more vaporware than reality, has decided to go fully negative now against Gingrich.

In other words, Mitt Romney who no one much cares for outside of well paid consultants, lobbyists, and First Class Acela Express Republicans in Washington and New York is going to drive up his own negatives to make Newt Gingrich more toxic to the base than himself. That’s a winning strategy for the general for sure! “Hey,” Team Romney must be saying, “We’ll just remind them about the Supreme Court to get them to turn out in the general.” That worked so well for Team McCain.

Mitt Romney is supposedly a brilliant private businessman. It is the theme of his campaign. If a business were to spend as much as he has spent to lose Iowa in 2012 garnering less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008 and then lose all but two counties in South Carolina, you’d think a private businessman would shake up his campaign.

Right now in running his campaign, Mitt Romney conveys all the business acumen of a co-CEO of Research in Motion, both of whom are themselves losing their jobs.

There is, however, some important insight into this we should all now see.

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RedState Morning Briefing
January 23, 2012

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I can confirm tonight from multiple sources that phone calls are in fact occurring between Republicans in Washington and among evangelical leaders to raise money for Rick Santorum rapidly.

The sources tell me that this is not for a Santorum win, though the evangelicals I spoke to continue to hope it is possible. This is to stop Newt Gingrich. One evangelical leader I spoke to said, “If Newt wins, we won’t be able to make family values an issue in the general.” One lobbyist I spoke to said, “They [the GOP leaders in DC] are really nervous about Gingrich and they think he’d be a disaster. The best way to shut him down is to prop up Rick.”

Florida is going to get interesting.

Peter Hamby from CNN notes what is going to be a recipe for disaster for Mitt Romney as he tries to relate to the Republican base.

In South Carolina exit polls, Romney wins only the “moderate or liberal”, those with incomes in excess of $200,000.00, those with postgraduate education, those who oppose the tea party movement, and those who think religion does not matter at all.

A number of those have been consistent through Iowa and New Hampshire too.

Mitt Romney’s exit polling reflects he can get the votes of Washington, D.C. Republicans and those who think we should leave the fate of the country in their hands. But he cannot get the votes of those who think we need to reform and reduce the power of Washington, which I venture to say is a sizable portion of the base.

The other day, Dan McLaughlin explained who the GOP establishment is. That characterizes Mitt Romney’s base even in the exit polls. Unfortunately for him, the base of the party is at war with that precise group.

The buzz in Washington now is that the Republican Establishment fears Gingrich will cause them to lose the House and not get the Senate. Put another way, the current Republican leadership fears that the man who helped the GOP take back the House for the first time in 40 years and his allies in the tea party who helped take back the House in 2010 will cause the GOP to now lose.

They’ll lose alright — they’ll lose power to others. That’s their real fear.

No candidate has won the GOP nomination for President without winning South Carolina since Ronald Reagan in 1980. But every one of those candidates who won had also won either Iowa or New Hampshire.

We’re now confronted with a designated front runner, Mitt Romney, who got less votes in Iowa in 2012 than he got in 2008 and who lost South Carolina. His reason for being somehow remains that he is “electable.”

If you read a lot of the Republican commentary coming out of Washington even before the polls closed, suddenly South Carolina is irrelevant and the hick rubes of the Palmetto state are just petulant children.

Actually, like with Iowa, it is a rather desperate scream to get another player on the field. It is a red flag. It is the giant “Danger” sign ahead for the general election.

Newt Gingrich’s rise has a lot to do with Newt Gingrich’s debate performance. But it has just as much to do with a party base in revolt against its thought and party leaders in Washington, DC. The base is revolting because they swept the GOP back into relevance in Washington just under two years ago and they have been thanked with contempt ever since.

Adding insult to injury, the party and thought leaders now try to foist on the base a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts. Newt Gingrich can thank Mitt Romney and more for the second look he is getting. Base hostility will now be exacerbated by Mitt Romney’s backers now undoubtedly making a conscious effort to prop up Rick Santorum to shut down Newt Gingrich.

Consider, before going below the fold, that this is the first time non-Romney ads against Romney have been at parity with Mitt Romney. And that parity caused a rapid erosion of support for Mitt Romney. Parity in advertising, not superiority to Romney, was all it took to begin the end of his South Carolina dominance.

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Roland Martin and I are going to be covering the South Carolina primary from rainy Columbia, SC tonight. We’ll be at Liberty Tap Room located at 828 Gervais Street, Columbia, SC 29201 if you want to stop by.

Consider this an open thread.

Tonight on WSB, I’m live from Charleston, SC. I’ll be going through the play by play of last night’s CNN Southern Republican Debate. You can listen live at http://wsbradio.com.

I’ll be taking a lot of phone calls too tonight. The number is 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

RedState Morning Briefing
For January 20, 2012

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