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So Wait A Second! DeVore Polls Better Against Boxer Than Fiorina, But We’re Supposed to go With Carly?!?!

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  May 14th, 2010 at 10:20 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Somewhere along the way someone forgot one of the chief rules of politics: win the general election.

We have been so focused on primaries, we’re forgetting that the endgame is victory in November not [insert your primary date here]. I remember in one of the campaign books James Carville and Paul Begala wrote that was actually very good (complete with a great pancake recipe), they wrote that winning the general election was what matters, not the primary. They advised positioning yourself in such a way that you could win the primary without then having to bail on everything to win the general election.

Well, we need to consider that advice this morning because Chuck DeVore outperforms Carly Fiorina against Barbara Boxer.

The logic we are supposed to pursue in this matter is this: Carly is outperforming Chuck in the primary and she is better than Tom Campbell, so go with Carly.

The logic we ought to pursue is this: Chuck outperforms Carly against Boxer and Campbell does better than them both against Boxer, so maybe we should be supporting Chuck instead of Carly to beat both Campbell and Boxer.

After all, say what you will about the primary, but please tell me how running a woman who has laid off half of California, sending their jobs to China, is really going to be competitive against Barbara Boxer.

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COMMENTS

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  • Xasteius

    seems to promote Tom Campbell at the expense fo the other two, but that’s just my interpretation.

    You are right, Erick, in saying that we need to unite behind Devore.

  • http://www.twitter.com/AveSharia evanm

    I knew this was true yesterday when I read DeVore was “unelectable” in California, without a poll citation.

  • RINKER

    …but he needs to catch fire in a big way to beat Campbell. We will see if that happens….

  • latinchic

    A good case can be made either way. Still, my money’s on Fiorina having the best chance to win this late in the game.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    grossly oversimplifying the paradigm: if Campbell out-polls other candidates against Boxer, we should support him. That is if we are using polls based on the general match-up as a standard.

    How about Chuck and Carly shake hands and agree to go after Campbell, who is the worst candidate (IMO) but continuously out- polls the other candidates.

    My humble opinion: all this Chuck v. Carly has benefited one person, Campbell. That’s called conservative cannibalism.

  • GT350

    I prefer DeVore. I don’ t like Campbell at all, and I have qualms about Fiorina. I will vote for DeVore, but I’m prepared to take whomever is the (R) candidate in the general.

    Keep in mind, though, this is the loony left state of California. And let’s remember the goals here:
    1) Defeat Barbara Boxer
    2) Defeat Barbara Boxer
    3) Put a Republican in CA Senate seat for the first time since… ?
    4) Defeat Barbara Boxer
    5) Hope for a reasonably conservative voice to represent California.

    I hope DeVore can take the election. This is a unique time with a lot of angry voters. Even my tree-hugger hippie neighbor was ranting about union abuses, fiscal irresponsibiltiy, and the overall nuttiness of Obamacare. I told her “Welcome to the Republican Party” and she stormed off, cursing at me under her breath.

    My neighbor will never, ever vote Republican. The best I can hope for is that she will stay at home.

  • red_oakster

    There are some occasions in which someone trailing in a primary will do better in a general election. Indeed, as we just saw in Utah, there are some who do better in a convention than in a primary. Had Bennett survived the convention (and I am glad he did not), he was the heavy favorite for the primary.

    There have been several polls in which DeVore does better in the general and worse in the primary, just like the Democrat Halter in Arkansas is running better against Boozman than he is against Lincoln. There have been several polls showing DeVore trailing Boxer by a smaller margin in the general than Fiorina. And DeVore has achieved these “successes” while remaining mired in a distant third place in the primary. So the “evidence” adduced here for DeVore has yet to translate to improvement in the primary.

    What matters is the primary. If there’s evidence that DeVore is overtaking Fiorina in the primary, then he should stay in. In all the months of this race to date there has been no such evidence. Nothing else matters. As of now DeVore remains the third place spoiler, enabling a terrible candidate to win the nomination.

    A few days ago, Erick suggested giving him another two weeks. I am on record saying that he should have got out a month ago, but while May 25th is a little late for my taste, it still works if DeVore does the prudent thing. Again, a pathetic third place finish ends DeVore’s aspiration for higher office, while a strategic withdrawal leaves him the frontrunner against Feinstein in 2012.

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway

    …she’s currently sending the other half of our jobs to China.

  • pamela1631

    As of this morning (9:40 am), we haven’t had the primary here in California and I believe the absentee ballots have gone out.

    So unless the Acorn-like substitute pukes have the ballot boxes pre-stuffed, ENOUGH ALREADY!

    Great Floods have started with one drop of rain.
    Let our votes be cast for Devore and wash out Boxer from DC.

  • Joshua Persons
  • Richard Mullins

    More of the same stuff and a Water Person for the party ,even if it’s all stupid. If you don’t vote the other party, the problems will still be there.

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway
  • Aaron Gardner
  • tankertodd

    Using Erick’s logic, then let’s get behind Campbell. He’s one point away, while DeVore and Fiorina are 6-7 points away. What’s so bad about Campbell?

  • drothgery

    It’s May. And DeVore is a complete unknown outside of conservative activists. His numbers right now are pretty much the ‘not Barbara Boxer’ numbers. Don’t mistake them for resembling in any way what they’d be if he were actually nominated.

    I’d like to live in a state where someone like Chuck could win a statewide election of any consequence, but that’s not going to happen unless San Diego secedes from California (and if you’ve been to San Diego, you understand why I ain’t moving as long as I can pay the bills and live here).

  • Adjoran

    One single point in one single poll with a MOE of 4.5% and you make this ridiculous claim?

    The kindest word to use for this interpretation is “spin.”

    Of course, using the RCP average of the last four statewide polls yields a different result – so let’s ignore that! And as others have pointed out, using this “logic” would mean supporting Campbell over both the others, so let’s ignore that, too!

    Your grip on reality is beginning to resemble Kos’.

    When you have to fantasize to make your case, perhaps it’s time to recognize you don’t have a sound argument.

    Don’t worry – I’m sure Tom Campbell will send along a nice note thanking you for your help getting him the nomination.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You could not possibly be a worse proponent of Carly Fiorina.

    Do you realize that you come across so badly that you’re probably making people vote DeVore right now just to shove it in your face?

    She should pay somebody to cut the power to your house just to stop the bleeding.

  • AceInTX

    but how do explain this…we have a candidate that polls better in the general than their moderate pick…yet they still insist we back the moderate who is the weak horse…

    Who are the ideological, (or non ideological if you will), purists in the RPCA and the NRSC?

  • AceInTX
  • conservativecrusade

    with Campbell. But since we should keep these replies somewhat short, in a nutshell, there is no difference in the beliefs between Boxer and Campbell. That is the main thing wrong with him. If he wins we are simply changing from an old stale poo pile to a newer and fresher poo pile. And since there is little difference if any, he will vote the same way Bozo did, so we will still be in the same shape we were in before.

  • conservativecrusade

    there has to be a point we make a choice and choose the candidate that can not only beat Boxer, but also beat Campbell. Chuck should stay in and fight like hell until either he is CLEARLY beating Carly or the other way around. At that point we need to demand the other drops out, gets behind the other, so that Campbell is not the elected republican, and then go beat Boxer. Like it or not, the line has to be drawn and drawn soon or it will be Campbell versus Boxer, and that is a crappy choice. One of the two has to be willing to let their pride go, drop out, so that a conservative in Chuck or a moderate in Carly can move on and keep a Boxer look a like in Campbell out of the main election.

  • tracycolorado

    Chuck Devore has my vote ! Fiorina endorced john mccain and his CAP AND TAX in last presidential ellections . NOW fiorina has flopped like a fish , and says she is against CAP AND TAX . Campbell has no backbone , and doesnt know , what he wants . CHUCK DEVORE has never swayed on his values and beliefs , unlike the rocking chairs campbell and fiorina

  • svconservative

    We should not get obsessed over polls. Primary voters’ preferences can change substantially close to the election, and more importantly no votes have been counted for any of these candidates yet.

    If Fiorina were a strong conservative candidate she would be able to unify the conservative vote by convincing voters on the strengths of her ideas and her leadership abilities. When the party machine has tried to anoint a candidate who has not been able to build a strong coalition and solidify support on their own merits, we have often ended up with surprisingly weak candidates.

    I used to like Campbell though he has shifted further to the left than I would prefer. Campbell is a RINO. He has been on our side of some issues and quite far to the left on others. Fiorina is a big question mark. We really have very little idea about what she really believes, or about what she will do if elected. I think it is quite likely that she is a RINO just like Campbell and just like Arnold.

    It is not clear to me that Campbell has the killer instinct that is needed to win a tough fight in the general election. Carly is a wild card. What she has going for her is name recognition and the fact that Boxer has never had to run against a woman before. Nominating Carly is a gamble – she could turn out to be a tough challenger for Boxer or she could be a much weaker campaigner than expected. My vote will be for the best candidate in this primary, Chuck Devore, regardless of what the polls say.

  • Adjoran

    If DeVore had a chance, I’d be for him.

    Your ad hom attack shows the lack of coherent argument for pursuing the windmill tilting. Just over three weeks remain. The only one showing any measurable movement is Campbell, and he doesn’t have much.

    How much money would it take to come from third place in three weeks in a state with all the media markets California has? Has DeVore shown any ability to raise it?

    I thought YOU were the one who actually looked at the numbers. Can you in good conscience say you are in agreement with the “Big MO” proclamations made by Erick and Aaron (Josh is with the campaign, he’s expected to spin everything their way)? Is that the way you interpret these subgroups?

    If so, please explain it in a way that makes sense, not that conforms with wishful thinking. But you don’t, you just attack the messenger who points out there is nothing there. You could see the truth if you wanted to, but you don’t want to. You can’t handle the truth! (always wanted to say that …).

    Sorry to be the skunk at the garden party, but my conservative credentials can’t be questioned. At the age of 11, I stayed up until 4 am EDT listening to Barry Goldwater’s acceptance speech from the Cow Palace in Frisco in 1964. I rang doorbells for Nixon in 1968, and backed Reagan in 1976. I was one of the early evangelists of Kemp-Roth, which eventually became “the Reagan tax cut.” I was burning up local talk radio with conservative views when Limbaugh was still a DJ. So, I don’t give a brass farthing what some kid says about me.

    This California stuff is all clear to anyone with average faculties and paying attention. Those who care about the facts will get it, those who don’t never would anyway. Some years back one of the most popular conservative sites was Polipundit, but the guy went off the deep end into the fringe waters. Started when he decided Bush was a RINO enemy. It’s still around, but pulling a fraction of the traffic it once did.

    Of course, it couldn’t happen here.

  • charm2

    When she became the head honcho at Hp there was lots of noise about how wonderful to have a woman at the head of a big corportation. She then proceeded to run the company into the ground. When they fired her with a 20 million +/_ severance pay she hit the tv circuit complaining about the low severance pay and declared the reason she did not get much money from them was because she is a woman. She was at Lucent before coming to Hp. After being at Hp I vaguely remember some suggestions that things were not all what they seemed when she was at Lucent. Is politics her choice because there are no options for her in the business communityr? She worked on McCains campaign and he lost. She has the Republican party’s old boy’s endorsement. I don’t know for sure what she is nor why anyone believes California would benefit from her being their senator, but there are some red flags here that have loser written all over them.

  • vinick

    you guys are nuts…you all talk about the most important thing being defeating Boxer and electing a Republican and yet you are taking all these pains to pick Fiorina or DeVore so that they can beat Campbell. Campbell is a Republican too and guess what? He can actually win! Campbell has appeal beyond the Republican base, which you need to win because, in California, the enthusiasm gap is not enough to overcome Democrats’ registration advantage. Republicans in CA need moderates and independents and DeVore and Fiorina are not going to pull those in to the same extent that Campbell will. I’m for him because of his views, but the rest of you guys please, he is the best choice if for no other reason than because he can win in November.

  • trilogy

    When are people going to wake up and notice a RINO, is a RINO, even with lipstick on it. We need to take back our country by electing the right people to do this and not put into office those who are of the same cloth that is currently in Washington.

  • MF

    H’e sort of a young Arlen Specter. Yeah, he had an (R) next to his name, but he’s going to provide cover for the other liberal Rs to move further left. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him switch to (D) if he were elected and the more conservative R leaders tried to pressure him.

    Campbell is not a RINO, he’s a DWAD (Democrat without a D).

  • clarencedebarrows

    “San Francisco” in 1964! Not questioning your “conservative credentials”, but definitely questioning your couth.