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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Election Results Open Thread

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  May 18th, 2010 at 06:23 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Today is a big primary day. I just got off the phone with Tim Burns. He says he feels confident, things look good on the ground, and the Critz campaign has a small election day presence.

I’ll be on John King USA starting at 7pm ET on CNN tonight to talk about the election results as they come in. Feel free to tune in.

Otherwise, consider this an open thread.

[UPDATE, Moe Lane]: Politico is tracking all the race results here.

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  • http://twitter.com/JoeKenHa joekenha

    Slightly off tonight’s topic, but I wish her luck.

  • JadedByPolitics

    ……

  • http://conservativemountaineer.blogspot.com/ conservativemountaineer

    http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10138/1059068-100.stm

    Look on the bright side.. at least they know the number of live voters who voted twice.. and not all were Democrats (which is typical). The story is that this was an honest mistake made by a newbie Judge of Elections.

    Now, if we could find out how many DEAD voters vote (see: Chicago, City of; Philadelphia, City; et al)

  • swami7774

    Especially for PA-12?

  • http://conservativemountaineer.blogspot.com/ conservativemountaineer

    Oops, forgot this thought.. Is only a bright side if the Republicans were voting for Burns (and some/all of the Democrats).. On the other hand, there is no bright side ‘cuz we may never know the impact of a poorly trained Judge of Elections. (I won’t call him/her stupid.. yet.) Uniontown is not a garden spot and is a Democrat stronghold… ’nuff said.

    Burns needs to win this by 1,000s of votes.. anything less than that (especiallly 178.. LOL) will be contested by Critz (D, Felon/Murtha-lite).

  • swami7774

    For PA-12:
    http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=35

    For PA Sen:
    http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

  • http://conservativemountaineer.blogspot.com/ conservativemountaineer

    http://earlyreturns.sites.post-gazette.com/
    From Dennis Roddy in Johnstown, Pa.

    AS THE EVENING stumbles upon us like so many sprinters pushed a few hundred yards too far, one casts about for auguries. It has been a short election, much the way a hanging is a short drop or Hiroshima was a brief skirmish.

    At the Holiday Inn, the former Sheraton wherein both Paul Newman and Tom Cruise once laid their heads when they filmed movies here, the Mark Critz campaign was setting up for a night of revelry or anguish, depending upon the numbers. Unlike the movies, the catering hints at a sub-Hollywood budget.

    IT HAS BEEN an expensive election. That is the only thing that can explain the cash bar ? Banker?s Club gin, Smuggler scotch, some sort of vodka unworthy of the name. There is better stuff directly under the bar for another 75 cents a pop.

    ?Frankly, I?m ashamed to have that out there,? said one of the bartenders. ?I don?t know who picked this.?

    The lavish spread will include hotdogs, hamburgers, cheeseburgers, all priced to go but, it is well to remember, priced nonetheless. Even a bag of chips is a buck.

    THERE ARE several ways to read this, none of them fully clear. Theory one: Mark Critz is a big cheapo. Theory two: Mark Critz is out of money. Theory three: Mark Critz is about to win, so they figure folks will gladly pay for a Coors Light to celebrate. Theory four: Mark Critz thinks he?ll lose and doesn?t want to run up any more debt that necessary. Theory five: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee only pays for TV, not drinks, which is yet another reason to hate the DCCC. With so much riding, it is unwise to keep the troops sober by virtue of their own penury.

  • NeoKong

    She just gave this “aw shucks little ol’ me small town girl” thing.
    No mention of the TARP and health care vote that has doomed her career.
    Specter is all done too.
    Today Arlen and Blanche answer to the voters for their arrogance.
    They know exactly why they are being fired.

  • JoeG

    Mrs. Smith’s primary is tonight. In a few hours we’ll know if she is representing out party in the general for AR1 this fall.

  • JoeG

    Rand Paul 49.9 ? Trey Grayson 43.3.

  • discerningconservative

    with 29% of votes counted.

  • Bill S

    A REFERENDUM ON BARACK OBAMA!!!!!11!!1111!!
    </mainstreammedia>

  • tngal

    Paul , Rand GOP 61,754 59%
    Grayson , Trey GOP 38,267 36%

    Kentucky – 1043 of 3575 Precincts Reporting – 29%

    http://www.courier-journal.com/

  • SteveLA

    I will hoist a toast when Arlen is TOAST!

  • Flagstaff

    (and it must have been a lefty one) said it would be a “disaster” for Republicans if Paul won.

    I guess this is our Titanic.

    Heh heh heh.

  • Flagstaff

    Of course not.

  • JoeG

    I WANT SCALP #2 OF THE PRIMARY SEASON NOW!

  • JoeG

    Oh, and how about the irony that the membership of both Redstate and Daily Kos are excited by the same results in the PA primary?

  • klondike

    You should see the training in my area! Nonexistent.

    My ire is directed at those on both sides of the aisle who cast more than one vote. May each and every one of them be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law for voter fraud.

  • NeoKong

    It is anti-incumbent……BWahaHhahHahahHAHAHhaahhah……..
    Insulting millions of people for the whole last year may not have been a winning strategy.

    Note to self:
    Don’t call someone a violent angry racist and then ask for their vote.

  • klondike

    She gets it. Educating and informing. Even her life-long Democrat parents are starting to look at what conservatism stands for. If she can convince them and others of what the Democratic Party has done to Blacks and why, and back it up with historic and current day facts to support her argument, perhaps ACORN, SEIU, and Pantywaist President’s goons will not be able to steal the election.

  • SteveLA

    I was watching CNN just now and the talking heads were going on about the Tea Party candidate Rand Paul and how as a force the Tea Party was opening up a civil war in the Republican party, I’m not buying that.

    I jumped over to Paul’s web site and checked his statement on abortion, he’s completely Pro-Life, not sure how he comes down on gay marriage.

    So in this case, how is the Tea Party candidate not in sync with the Pro-Life social conservative wing of the R party, where’s the fight? So maybe Paul does not make abortion the center-piece of his issue space, but he’s still in agreement with one section of the base, so where’s the civil war?

  • AceInTX

    YYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!

  • SteveLA
  • janis

    A multitude of different political animals can detest both of them.

  • clintonformccain

    Rand Paul winning makes David Brooks upset.

  • AceInTX

    He anti Moderate…anti establishment…that’s where the fight is….abortion has nothing to do with anything except for the lies Mitch and his lackeys told about it

  • erod

    an election defeat that is :)

  • erod

    an election defeat that is :)

  • proudgop

    Andy Barr has won GOP nod to take on Chandler

    Todd Yally will be taking on Yarmuth

  • pilgrim

    Andy Barr will run against the D incumbent Chandler.

    http://www.andybarrforcongress.com/news/teapartyorganizermicasimsendorsesandybarrforcongress.html

  • Flagstaff

    when the time comes.

    Payback would be both cold and sweet.

  • GOPUGA

    Sestack scares me in the General Election, I have been wrong may times before and hope I am on this as well.

  • txgho1911

    How did Coats win Indiana! Republicans outvoted the conservative. At least those who were awake.

  • Flagstaff

    Our nation is citizen-centered. It is of, by, and for the people.

    Other nations are government centered. The will of the government is paramount, no matter will of the people.

  • Flagstaff

    As long as the incumbent is a Dem or a Rino.

  • Flagstaff
  • conservativecrusade

    “hot Damn” in for the last few weeks. Hoping I am able to whip it our when Spector goes down.

  • SteveLA

    Shoot CNN showed only a minute or so of his victory speech…but boy was he something else.

    Great stuff!

  • http://twitter.com/JoeKenHa joekenha

    I didn’t realize.

  • proudgop

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/

    better site to see all results

    Conway is easier for us to face in Kentucky

  • AceInTX
  • redneck_hippie

    or is it that the leftists are a bunch of gol durned screwups?

    Har!

  • discerningconservative

    She attempted to vote twice like any good Democrat does. (Warning: link is to Talking Points Memo)

  • drawlings

    I am concerned that Paul cannot win in November. The Dems will paint him as out of the mainsteam and turn him into Barry Goldwater. It makes me sad to see a liberal like Conway take Bunning’s seat.

  • conservativecrusade

    n/t

  • discerningconservative

    We will rally behind Paul, and hand him a victory in November. If you want to sit on the sidelines and whine, that’s fine… but if that is your plan, shut up and let us adults do the work.

  • conservativecrusade

    but I would dare say voter anger is the bigger portion. The very fact that Burns is running well in an area with 2 to 1 democrat registration to republican shows people are pissed off.

    Go Burns and Go Sestak(for primary only of course)

  • tngal

    “Republicans today accused Democrat congressional candidate Mark Critz of ?illegally campaigning? inside Cambria County polling places.

    The Pennsylvania Republican Party and the campaign of Tim Burns, Critz?s GOP opponent in the 12th Congressional District, said Critz was witnessed inside polls in Westmont.

    Critz?s campaign did not deny that he had been inside some polls but maintained that nothing improper or illegal occurred.”

    http://tribune-democrat.com/local/x712212070/NEW-Republicans-say-Democratic-House-candidate-inside-polling-places-illegally-Dems-deny-electioneering

  • stephaniet

    …but would your signature be Gaelic, by any chance? No, I don’t speak it; if I did, I’d know for sure. :) It looks it, and I must confess I like those sayings. *ahem*

  • hippiessmell

    I’m really hoping that Arlen pulls it out in the primary, despite my loathing for him. He will be the definition of vulnerable should he go to the general. He’s down double digits to Toomey in the general whereas Sestak is a dead heat. As sweet as the vengeance would be right now, I think patience is a virtue in this case.

  • proudgop

    Critz 60%
    Burns 38%

  • ktsub

    TheOtherMccain blog says numbers looking good. Union stronghold (isnt the whole district a “union stronghold”) that is 3-1 heavy Democratic comes in 55%-45% for Critz. Better numbers should follow…

    Hope the wool is not pulled, like in NY-20.

  • tngal

    Special election

    D) Mark Critz 2,431 59%

    (R) Tim Burns 1,611 39%

    (L) Demo Agoris 89 2%

    Repub Primary

    Tim Burns 625 54%

    William Russell 528 46%

    Dem Primary

    Mark Critz 2,382 77%

    Ryan Bucchianeri 355 11%

    Ronald Mackell 353 11

    Again this is only 4 percent… These results from

    http://kdka.com/electionresults

  • swami7774

    Won’t Burns and Critz face each other again in November no matter who wins tonight?

  • discerningconservative

    They are both running in the special election as well as the primary which were both held simultaneously today. The special election is to decide who holds the seat until the current term expires, and the primary is to decide who runs for the full term in November

  • conservativecrusade

    they are.I was born in Ireland and my grandfather made it a point to teach me the old tongue. Wish I had practiced it more over the years as I have lost much of it.

  • swami7774

    …that they will win their respective primaries, correct? Unless something very weird happens.

  • mikerazar
  • thurman

    For one, I think Sestack is a much tougher general election opponent against Toomey. I’d prefer Toomey vs Arlen

    Second, the thought of that crazy coot Specter as a lame duck Senator for the next 6 months scares the heck out of me.

    Let Arlen squeak by the primary and try to tack right for the next 6 months then get crushed in November

  • discerningconservative

    I really never really paid any attention to polls of the primary, and just focused on the special. It’s still pretty early (only 6.9% of precincts reporting) and Critz has a pretty big lead (72%), but Burns is only up 57-42. It’s still pretty early, though.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Paul has the momentum and is on the popular side of the issues of the day.

    The seat is his barring scandal

  • http://www.rightklik.net rightklik

    When in doubt, bet on the guy with more hair.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Let’s let Bunning autograph baseballs and enjoy pudding at home

  • drawlings

    I promise you that I will sit on the sides and whine. I will contribute to Paul’s campaign and work for him.

  • swami7774

    nm

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • ciscoguy

    We should be hammering the left every day on school choice, that racial discrimination of ANY kind is intolerable and reminding them of the disproportionately high number of black babies the left is all to happy to exterminate.

    African Americans are a natural constituency of the Republican party – pro-family, pro-life Christians. It will take a while to break the cycle of indoctrination, but it can be done.

  • AceInTX

    but we’re better off without him…hopefully we can find someone better to haul Mitch’s dead and stinking carcass to the ash bin.

  • AceInTX
  • Return to Revolution

    Haughton has 70% of the vote so far (30% reporting)… This means

    1. Schwartz (D-incumbent) is sweating (see http://www.redstate.com/soren_dayton/2010/02/10/pa-13-how-scared-are-dem-incumbents/)

    2. Adcock was the endorsed candidate – folks are standing up to the leadership (or just ignoring them).

  • tngal

    (D) Mark Critz 13,239 58%

    (R) Tim Burns 9,110 40%

    (L) Demo Agoris 494 2%

    http://kdka.com/electionresults

    Yeah, I think we’re gong to have to make an issue of Critz’s people being the polling places. Does’nt matter if he says ” nothing improper” happened. And double ballots? Tomorrow should be fun reading.

  • proudgop

    Conway wins Dem Primary in Kentucky

    he ran as liberal

  • ffc99

    28% in.

    Not looking good for Burns. 57%-41%, 5200 vote margin for Critz. The Critz lead has been holding steady.

  • ffc99

    I meant PA 12.

  • ktsub

    Westmoreland County is reporting now, not looking as expected. Westmoreland was supposed to be decisive, only 50-48 for Burns.

    Well wonder how Djou is doing in HI-01?

  • ciscoguy

    Would have been a nice pickup, but what do you expect from a district of drones?

  • ciscoguy

    Would have been a nice pickup, but what do you expect from a district of drones?

  • discerningconservative

    Critz 32,422 54.8%

    Burns 25,396 43%

    Agoris 1,36 2.2%

  • discerningconservative
  • proudgop

    In rural Somerset County, 88% of precincts are reporting, dead even, Burns 49%, Critz 49%

    wouldn’t Burns do better here?

  • tngal

    special election

    D) Mark Critz 19,596 56%

    (R) Tim Burns 14,743 42%

    (L) Demo Agoris 792 2%

    WITH 34 percent of the results in ..here’s the primary numbers

    Dem Primary

    Mark Critz 17,689 76%

    Ryan Bucchianeri 3,504 15%

    Ronald Mackell 2,193 9%

    Repub primary

    Tim Burns 6,916 55%

    William Russell 5,725 45%

  • AceInTX
  • conservativecrusade

    Hot Damn, Specter is gone. I can not wait to see his concession speech and his inability to display his arrogant ass!

  • SteveLA

    A bloody war or a sickly season !

    Toast!

  • conservativecrusade

    fox just reported it. But on such a joyous day, it matters little. Only thing thing that matters is the bum Specter is now unemployed as he should be!

  • Ausonius

    Quite right: “entrenched Democrat districts” do not suddenly have political epiphanies and come to their senses.

    Those people are drunk on pork, chitlins, and 5 pound slabs of bacon and expect it all to keep on comin’ !

    More multi-million dollar airports with one flight a day! :)

  • Return to Revolution
  • ciscoguy

    n/t

  • IJB

    It looks like it’ll be close, but just short.

    This will be another district with at least a R+8% swing, which if replicated nationally would be pretty huge.

    But a more than 2-to-1 Dem registration edge district may be a bridge too far.

    Meanwhile, the lawyer with purported mob-ties, Marino, looks to be the primary winner in PA-10. That’s probably not good…

  • proudgop

    Crawford has won GOP nod in Open AR 01 race

  • GOPUGA

    Pennsylvania is a Blue state, and as bad as things are in our country this district is probably going D. I wanted the Dems to put the weakest general election candidate up which would have been Spectar. Sestak is a reliable liberal who can run against Obama on a few things and he is also a decorated Navy officer. If I were a betting man (i’m not) I would say this seat stays Blue in November.

  • AceInTX

  • proudgop

    it looks over to me

    the NRCC spent 1 million on this race and they barely have the money as it is.

    Burns didn’t win one county it looks like either

  • bigredone

    Ambassador Bailey could win in 2014 in Kentucky. I hope she runs.

  • redtillimdead

    This, NY-23, and Ny-20 should have been WON! No EXCUSES anymore! He lost 3 races we should have been favored in. The ONE race he does not get involved in (Hi-01) we look likely to win.

  • SteveLA

    Quite a few posts here on RS about 2012, gotta say never seen one for 2014….a new record! LOL

  • IJB

    This district is probably the very outside edge of the kind of district we could expect to pick up, and that would only be under optimal conditions.

    As it is, this race was “gamed” by having it coincide with competitive Dem primaries to gin up the D vote.

    It’s actually possible that the odds of a win will be better in November, esp. as Critz will then have a record (of supporting Obama) that he’ll have to run on.

    As it is, the swing is still at least R+8% here too, and nationally that kind of swing to the GOP would be huge.

  • IJB

    Winning this race was just “gravy”.

    Winning PA-12 is by no means “necessary” to win back the House…

  • IJB
  • tngal

    politco reports police have gone out twice to the Kennedy’s Westchester home on South Bedford Road this month. Both due to ” domestic” issues…and reported today, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s wife has been charged with driving while intoxicated.

    Not any of our races tonight I know, but….goshIs this what happens to dems when their political world starts crumbling?

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You do realize Dems were way more energized due to the Specter collapse right?

    Specter’s foot in mouth killed Burms not Sessions

  • discerningconservative

    According to Dave Chalian of ABC News via twitter.

  • drohan00

    The most important part is making the Democrats spend lots of money in places like PA-12.

    We still will win a lot of places we normally don’t in this cycle. Democrats need to win in old-time union places like Johnstown by a lot more than this close race.

    Republicans are going to be fine. Now spending a million on it may have been nuts, but we are still running with the wind at our backs.

  • 6eorge Jetson

  • proudgop

    PA 04 Rothfus has won GOP nod

  • Return to Revolution

    I don’t think PA can be called blue just yet – Republicans swept the state in the local elections last November (including a new R majority on the state supreme court). I agree, though, that Sestak/Toomey is tougher than Specter/Toomey. Toomey is articulate and should run an excellent campaign. I think he will pull it off in a favorable cycle.

    Sestak’s military record will definitely be tough; kind of scary that we have admirals who are so far to the left (Sestak wants net neutrality, Obamacare and hearts radical Islam); Toomey will need to clearly expose that.

  • AceInTX

  • AceInTX
  • drohan00

    Democratic turnout is extremely high in this race due to the Senate primary.

    The Republicans not having a competitive state-wide race is probably not helpful. Although, there is quite a bit of Dems that are coming across the aisle. Critz is losing a lot of Democrats, not all are voting for him in the general. Maybe there is something helpful here.

  • redtillimdead

    But I also know that when someone who ran as terrible a campaign as John McCain in as bad a year as 2008 can win this district, we should be able to win it in a GOP year open seat. Also, that is no excuse for losing by (as of now) 9 points.

  • rascott

    basing that on? Everything I’ve heard/read said that turnot was very low today.

  • discerningconservative

    Blanche Lincoln is barely holding a lead in the AR Senate primary:

    Lincoln 43.5%

    Halter 42.1%

    With 33.9% of precincts reporting. I’m not going to miss her.

  • JamesSmith130

    is going to lose to Halter in the runoff. Score one for the Krazy Kos Kids.

  • conservativecrusade

    as PA is tech a blue state, but it is starting to wake up. Much of PA is blue collar and the people who live there have been there for generations and generations. My fathers family is like that. His family lived in Uniontown PA for well over 120 years, some in the same home as the first one. They vote dem for two reasons, their daddy and granddaddy voted dem, and the dems like unions. Up until this administration, they could overlook some of the dem beliefs and supported the dems due to the union. They bought into the dems lies that repubs wanted to kill the unions, tax them out of house and home, etc mainly because so many repubs acted that way.

    But they have grown weary of the push on their rights, the growth of the government, the spending of this administrations, and on and on. They are starting to realize the dem party is full of trash, its platform is anti american, and they want no part of it.

    Watch, PA will start to move center to right and you will see and upsurge in republican wins in the state, maybe as soon as the 2012 election. It will kill the dems to lose that state in the Presidential election, but it will happen soon.

  • IJB

    There is a whole slough of this country that will gladly pull the level for a whole flock of D’s on the local level after voting for an ‘R’ for president. This district, and the entire states of AR and WV, being just three prime examples.

    If you really think it’s going to be *easy* to win districts with a greater than 2-to-1 Dem registration edge, you seriously deluded.

  • JamesSmith130

    The voters of the third guy are probably anti-politician and anti-incumbent. They aren’t voting for Blanche in a runoff.

  • discerningconservative

    But I will laugh a lot harder if Halter gets his 50% tonight. We can stand Blanche along the coastline, and let her tears help disperse the oil in the Gulf.

  • proudgop

    PA 08 Fmr Congressman Fitzpatrick will be facing Murphy

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We’re talking about D turnout vs R turnout.

    Democrats had a multiway primary for Governor and a hugely-hyped, fast-moving primary for Senate.

    Republicans had a coronation for Senate and I think for Governor as well.

    Democrats had more reason to show up tonight.

  • JamesSmith130

    for every voter like your father’s family in Western PA, there is one in the Philly suburbs who goes the other way like Snarlin’ Arlen.

    We’d have turned PA red had the Philly suburbs stayed where they were back in the early 1990s.

  • discerningconservative

    by coastline, I didn’t mean Arkansas’ coastline. I did a little better in Geography than that.

  • Money

    It isn’t necessarily important what the overall turnout is; it’s Republican vs. Democrat turnout. Democrats turned out for the Senate primary and the special election. Republicans (by virtue of Toomey’s virtually unopposed primary) had only the special election . The December election, with Toomey vs. Sestak on the top of the ballot, should help Burns.

  • IJB

    About 750,000 people voted in the Dem Senate Primary.

    With about 90% in, there’s already over 900,000 people voting in the Dem Senate primary.

    Yeah, I’d say Dem turn out is “up”, and “high”…

  • drohan00

    Republicans are more unified, and that will help big.

    Anyone know the Toomey vs. Sestak poll numbers. The Clowns on MSNBC think Sestak is their better candidate. They say he’ll whip Toomey, I’d like to know if this is the case.

  • Doc Holliday

    I knew then more than I ever needed to know about the dump. It is a Demonrat stronghold, they will vote for the Dem if he gives them any reason at all. The dem ran as a conservative, of course he duped the willing.

  • proudgop

    both of candidates were unopposed

    Meehan (R) 41, 223
    Lentz (D) 33,924

  • IJB

    …Is only about R+2% vs. 2008.

    That is rather disappointing.

    However, the *Dem* swing is D-5% – now *that’s* interesting…

  • rascott

    to beat Specter in the general, but that’s just IMO.

  • rascott

    to beat Specter in the general, but that’s just IMO.

  • rascott

    I’m worried about KY. It was a competitive race on both sides, but the numbers voting on the Dem side were much higher than the GOP. With Paul winning, i think this race is going to be really tight. Thoughts?

    I was shocked looking at the vote totals. Dems outnumbered GOP votes by around 100k the last I saw.

  • proudgop

    Thomas Marino won GOP nod to take on Carney

  • rascott

    comments. Carl Cameron kept saying turnout was very low compared with what they were expecting. No idea what that means though.

  • IJB

    (As I predicted he would! :) )

  • spainishirish

    And as much as I like Rand Paul, it is due to who the Democrats nominated in Kentucky–a left-winger from Louisville. The Beltway will paint Paul as extremists but he is far more in sync with the state than the Democrat.

    In Arkansas, get out the popcorn and watch the nutroots rip out Lincoln’s lungs and hand that seat to us.

    Pennsylvania is ours to lose but no lock since Sestak is the better candidate for the Democrats. From a strictly partisan perspective I would have loved to have seen Specter as their nominee, but as an American I know the nation is better off without that unprincipled and treacherous fool.

    PA-12 was a heartbreaker but a good reminder of why even in this great environment nothing can be taken for granted.

    All in all a good night.

  • IJB

    I think the odds of picking up PA-10 just went down.

  • proudgop

    I think some of anti stuff on him was pushing anti Italian buttons

    guy was Att Gen who sent a lot criminals to jail

  • ffc99

    analysis is a bit simplistic, red. PA 12 is friendly territory for a fairly conservative, white democrat. I think most people would concede that Critz (whether you like him or not) fits that description. President Obama is not the kind of democratic candidate one would expect to do well in PA 12.

  • AceInTX
  • conservativecrusade

    in every state. Read an article today how the base black vote will not help the dems today as they live in cities where it is a dem stronhold. Almost all cites are full of dems. But in some states like PA where even the farms vote dem, things are changing. These long term dems are joining the tea party because they have grown tired of the agenda and actions of the party they have voted for generations.

    There is an awakening in this country and the dems have chosen to alienate their blue collar supporters with a radical agenda and unconstitutional actions. It will come back to bite them.

    This country is divided somewhat like this:

    About 40% identify themselves as conservatives

    About 17% as liberal/progressive

    The rest are divided between moderates, indep, liber, undecided, switch voters. Some vote repub, some dem. Others vote both ways. The blue collar and mod dems make up a huge portion of the dem voting block. Both sides try to sway the indep voters as they can turn an election. These are the groups who have voted for dems for generations but do not support huge tax increases, liberal agenda, socialism, abortion, gay marriage, amnesty, etc but have overlooked the dems on these issues for years. Now they feel as if the dems not only burn them in those areas, but are threatening their way of life and do not like it.

    It will not happen over night, but if the dems keep pushing their radical agenda and we can get some true conservatives in office who put a stop to it, multitudes of these once dem voters will switch parties and it will hurt the dems bad. I honestly expect that PA will soon turn from being a dem stronghold into more of an open area and may even become a state repubs can shoot for in the general.

    One can hope right?

  • IJB

    I think that race is a sleeper that we’ll pick up.

    Also, Time Holden only gets about 2/3 of the primary vote in PA-17.

    But GOP primaries are a mess in PA-03 and PA-17…

  • WarEagle01

    and racists. He would have been a shoo-in.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …is whether Critz will be allowed to vote as a conservative Democrat for the rest of the year. PA loses a seat next year, probably – and the PA-12 district was designed for a powerful Democratic House member. In other words, it’s going to get dismembered next year.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • pilgrim
  • IJB

    That’s why the #’s on the D side are higher that they are on the R side.

    However, unlike a district like PA-12, lots and lots of KY Dems are willing to vote for Republicans in general elections.

  • lineholder

    REP vote counts coming out lower than DEMs across the board…

    it had me wondering until I read some of the statements above.

  • proudgop

    Griffin wins GOP nod

    Dem runoff

    AR 01 Crawford

    Dem runoff

  • tngal

    do we focus money and time on this election for November? A lot of resources were poured into a race which we had well in hand up until about three weeks ago until things closed up. With so many races to focus on in November do we come back to try this again?

  • singingcactus

    But it seemed like Toomey was much better prepared for a race against Specter. He had the talking points down. On the other hand, Toomey went out of his way during the primary campaign to legitimize Sestak’s candidacy by offering him early debates, which Arlen refused to attend — basically, providing Sestak free press.

    Some Pennsylvanians felt comfortable with Arlen Specter; they didn’t like him too much, but knew what they were getting. For conservative-leaning independents and Republicans, Sestak is unknown. Once they find out what he stands for (more debt, anti-2nd amendment), they probably won’t like what they learn.

  • lineholder

    Beth Anne Rankin called winner by AP

  • redinsf

    Charlie cook said:

    “Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters’ attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP’s advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.”

    I am so mad right now, I’m done, I will not be giving anymore of my money or time to the RNC, NRSC or NRCC. This is pathetic.

  • IJB

    The D Primary Vote/R Primary Vote #’s aren’t nearly as large as they are in AR-01, and the Dems in AR-02 are heading to a runoff, which will further weaken them.

    Meanwhile, AR-03 is a mess on the GOP side – Womack is heading to a runoff with… someone, but it’s not clear who.

    AR-04 winner is a former beauty queen!

  • IJB

    That’s encouraging IMO.

  • IJB

    Charlie Cook is Dem-leaning analyst. Of course he’s going to copy DCCC “talking points” in his “analysis” of PA-12.

    And you’re the pathetic one if you use one loss as an excuse to give up – where I come from we call people like that “quitters”.

    The NRCC can’t be blamed for not winning a more than 2-to-1 Dem registration edge district, regardless of whatever ‘fluff’ Charlie Cook is putting out there…

  • redinsf

    If they knew this wasn’t going to be won, then why the hell did they put so much money into it.

    The republican party is anything but conservative if you look at they way they spend money in races. It is just sickening.

  • constitutionalconservative

    350K Republicans turned out, which is (by far) an all-time record for the primary. Dem turnout was only so-so, despite a very competitive race. Rand Paul took more votes than Mitch McConnell did in his primary in 2008 (running basically unopposed) and there were more votes in the KY Senate primary this year than there were in the PRESIDENTIAL primary in 2008.

    Overall this looks like a great year for our GOTV in Kentucky. Plus the Dems nominated by far their more liberal candidate who should be easier to run against.

    I am *very* optimistic about the general.

  • septembergurl

    Obama, pelosi & Reid. He said he would not have voted for Obamacare. In other words, the total Blue Dog Scam.

    In six months, Critz will have been forced to take some votes that his constituents will hate — cap&tax, immigration amnesty, etc. Burns will run against him in the Nov election and win.

    This is like NY 23. We lose the special election. We will win in the November tsunami. This is a great night. Benedict Arlen gone. Tea Parties whacking away at the country clubbers. Lincoln in a runoff. Etc. I am so thrilled re Spector. I am so happy he’s gone.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What’s your track record?

  • IJB

    …Even if your odds of winning are less than even, because a chance is still a *chance*.

    What? – Would you rather they spent no money on this race and have us lose 60% to 38%?! Then people like you would be screaming bloody murder that the NRCC “didn’t do anything!!1!”.

    They’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t…

    Personally, I think you’re just looking for an excuse to quit.

  • IJB

    That Cook is right, and that we should have won this race handily?! No, that’s not your point?!! Then what *is*?

    My point is that Cook’s picks may be OK on average, but his analyses write-ups tend to skew Left.

    Are you denying that’s the case?

  • singingcactus

    While obviously these races are a bit further down the ballot (meaning they’re more likely to be skipped), you can see the congressional primaries here: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=34&OfficeID=11

    Some quick takes:

    In PA-12, Democrats outnumbered Republicans nearly 2-to-1 in primary voting.
    In PA-11, a definite target district for Republicans in November, Dems outnumbered Reps almost 2.5-to-1.

    While those numbers could be explained away by the more competitive Senate and Gubernatorial Primaries on the Democratic side, other numbers just stump me:

    In PA-7, Sestak’s district, more Republicans voted than Democrats!
    In PA-15, Toomey’s old district, which has grown increasingly blue (voted for Gore, Kerry, and Obama by significant margins), more Republicans voted than Democrats.
    PA-8, another dem district, also saw more Republicans than Democrats.

    All three of those districts are Philly suburbs (PA 15 is kind of where the New York suburbs hit the Philly suburbs) and were competitive the last few cycles. These are the areas where Democrats have made the most inroads, turning the state from purple to light blue in the past decade. Toomey probably got Republicans out in PA-15, which is a good sign, because he’ll need that base of support in November.

    I’m not sure what to make of it. I just found the numbers interesting and somewhat contradictory to the ‘Democrats had better senate and gubernatorial races to boost their turnout’ line of reasoning.

  • IJB
  • redinsf

    But Spending $1 MILLION on a losing horse is a bit much don’t you think?!

  • IJB
  • redinsf

    What makes you think Cook skews left?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’ve yet to see you put up an argument. All I see is blah blah blah DEMOCRAT BAD blah blah blah.

  • proudgop

    No runoff !

    Start building a warchest pronto

  • ktsub

    Plus gain in PA statehouse…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I do think Burns wins this if not for the primary issues.

  • JoeG

    PA is going to lose what, one or two seatss?

    They are going to have to redraw some districts that put two incumbents in one district. It could be interesting to watch what happens.

  • proudgop

    PA 17 State Senator Argall won GOP nod against Holden

    PA 03 Mike Kelly won GOP nod against Dahlkemper

  • cwilson

    If PA-12 voters didn’t learn that there is NO SUCH THING as a “Blue Dog Democrat” during the Hellth Care debate, then they are simply unteachable. Too fracking stupid and gullible to tie their own shoes or buy a lollipop, much less vote.

    While I’m thrilled that Snarlin’ Arlen is finally gone — err…mostly, see below — PA-12 @ 54%-43% depresses me.

    A) Sestak will be harder to beat in Nov
    B) a bitter, angry, and vengeful Snarlin’ Arlen for nine, rather than just three, months, is something to fear, indeed.

  • cwilson

    Interesting. Jay Cost reports 111,000 primary votes but only 95,000 special election votes. Suspicion is that many of Bill Russell’s supporters — who is competing against Burns in the Republican primary for the November election — did not vote today’s special election. Those missing 16,000 votes…could have put Burns over the top.

  • JoeG

    Two solid conservatives and no RINOs. I’m going to be working hard to make sure that we’re a pickup for the Rs this fall.

    I also look forward to the tallest governor in the country.

  • Flagstaff

    with the MSM. And Ed Shulze said today that he is a 9/11 truther. If he shares his dad’s affinity for odd causes, he should keep quiet about it until he’s elected.

    But he seems to be on the right side of the important issues, and that is what should be important.

  • Flagstaff

    that we’ll have a definitive left vs. right general election now, not a center vs. center that proves nothing.

  • Flagstaff

    with our daughter. That song was one of the reasons.

  • kchand

    n/t

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    All Republicans have image issues in the press.

    That’s nothing new, and nothing unique to Randal Paul.

  • Flagstaff

    Statements about eliminating the Fed and dismantling NATO are fringe issues which are worth nothing except as fodder for a Democrat ridicule campaign, and a ridicule campaign was instrumental in defeating Specter, for example, and Dukakis, and Kerry.

    I’m 100% behind Rand Paul. As I said, he seems to be on the right side of the important issues, and that is what should be important. Fringe issues should be left to fringe candidates. And he of all people should know it.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Let’s just stop speculating, and move on to victory. :-)

  • http://conservablogs.com/theconservativecrawfish/ reelman

    MEDIA LATEST LIE: PENN. ELECTION RESULTS
    In a state where registered democrats have a 2-1 edge a democrat won with 53% against a Republican so the lib-media is gleeful.
    Guess what?
    The dem ran on this: pro life, pro gun, pro nuke power, anti-tax and anti-Obama care. Is this the modern democrat agenda?
    Is the democrat (once again like Obama) lying thru his teeth to get elected?
    At ANY rate, he did NOT run on the Obama agenda and he DID run on a conservative agenda. Obama-ism LOST.
    Anything you hear to the contrary is simply wrong.
    http://conservablogs.com/theconservativecrawfish

  • DavidS1787