The myth in the California Senate race is that Tom Campbell has corralled the moderate/left votes, and Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are splitting the conservative vote between them. In this myth, DeVore, as the lower-polling candidate, functions as a “spoiler” for Fiorina — who would otherwise win with a united conservative base behind her.As with all myths, this one is wholly false.Of the major polls taken on CA-Sen in the past 90 days, only five of them explicitly polled on ideological identification: Rasmussen, two SurveyUSA polls, LAT/USC, and Field. A survey of those five polls reveals the following:1) The ideological breakdowns among the CA-Sen candidates broadly follow the overall polling breakdowns.2) Tom Campbell, contrary to myth, has his base in self-identified conservatives, and leads among them — even in categories in which he is antagonistic toward the ideological position, such as pro-lifers and gun owners.3) There is little evidence of movement from one candidate to another, and hence of any “spoiler” role. The only such evidence is found in the SurveyUSA polls, in which Fiorina losses are almost exactly matched by DeVore gains; if sustained in other data sets, this arguably makes Fiorina a “spoiler” for DeVore, but not vice-versa.The bottom line is that the DeVore-as-spoiler myth is a falsehood perpetrated by an increasingly worried and anxious Fiorina campaign that is already seeking to cast blame for its failures on third parties. There is no data to support it.Please click here for the rest of the post.
I find the George Soros-funded Media Matters for America outlet extremely entertaining in their capacity as the Obama White House’s fluffy attack chinchilla — not just because they clearly work so hard at such drudgery, but because they are so oblivious to their incredible irrelevance within the ongoing online conversation. In this case, I sadly didn’t even notice their long, drawn out response last week to my piece on CMS nominee Donald Berwick until just today. It’s a classically impotent MMFA attack post, in the sense that it spends an incredible amount of effort to rebut absolutely nothing I wrote. Donald Berwick has expressed his support for a health care plan which “redistribute[s] wealth from the richer among us to the poorer”; he does talk about how he’s “romantic” about Britain’s National Heath System; he expresses his strong support for “rationing with our eyes open.” In fact, in quoting at length trying to provide some wiggle room or context for these quotes, MMFA actually makes Berwick seem worse!In any case, normally I’d just let MMFA continue on their merry way until the Obama White House calls them up to tell them who needs to be squeaked at tomorrow. But their naivete when it comes to health policy is so evident in their choice of sources, I have to point out one aspect of their response to me: their reliance on a rebuttal, and a support for health care rationing, from one Dr. Peter Singer.Please click here for the rest of the post.
At the White House today, during the welcome ceremony for Mexican President Filipe Calderon – a welcoming to an official state visit wherein Calderon is to be celebrated – President Obama stood by as Calderon trashed the state of Arizona and its citizens over Arizona’s immigration control law.Please click here for the rest of the post.
In a nutshell, the DISCLOSE Act is a reactionary pile of garbage born out of leftist panic over Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, in which the SCOTUS held that the government cannot ban political expenditures by companies, nonprofit groups, and labor unions. (It’s a great opinion. Read it here .) What the Act does is require disclosure of corporate and union political speech; however, the Act also includes exemptions for:“a communication appearing in a news story, commentary, or editorial distributed through the facilities of any broadcasting station, newspaper, magazine or other periodical publication…”This language is either embarrassingly sloppy, or endearingly sneaky, considering Justice Kennedy explicitly stated in the majority opinion that media outlets are not to be given deferential treatment. Whoops!Please click here for the rest of the post.
Next week, GOP.com will be debuting a new API, the purpose of which is to encourage people to blog, tweet, facebook, tag, tumblr, digg … well, let’s just summarize it as “get their internet on” in pursuit of winning elections. It’s not the first API released by Republicans. The House GOP released the Anywhere API, which allows developers to focus on keeping tabs on big government. But this is the first API released by the RNC, and its a pretty big step into new media, by either party’s standards.Please click here for the rest of the post.
Yesterday Connecticut Attorney General, the aptly named Dick Blumenthal, tried to unscrew the damage caused by some decades of lying about his service in Vietnam by trotting out a handful of supporters who happen to be veterans. In the process, Blumenthal scored a notable first: a hat trick of own goals.Please click here for the rest of the post.
Jane Norton is set to be the next establishment candidate to be taken out by the grassroots.Ken Buck is on the move. PPP polling shows, “Norton leads Ken Buck (R) in the Republican Senate primary by just five points, 31% to 26%, a 12 point drop in her lead from two months ago.”Please click here for the rest of the post.
So top NRSC strategist Rob Jesmer, who gave us the Charlie Crist debacle and backed Bob Bennett in Utah, had another banner day on Super Tuesday’s primary contests. The two candidates he fought to get the NRSC to back suffered embarrassing defeats (Arlen Specter & Trey Grayson) , and the two candidates he tried to destroy (Pat Toomey & Rand Paul) cake-walked into big victories.Jesmer got NRSC’s John Cornyn to go all-in for Specter last year. A few weeks later, Specter repaid Jesmer’s confidence in him by switching parties and went on to support Obamacare. Yet, not even the Democrats could stomach Snarlin’ Arlen’s crass opportunism. Conservatives knew Specter was untrustworthy for years, but the DC GOP strategists like Jesmer kept telling us Arlen was the best we could ever hope for.Please click here for the rest of the post.