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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Most Dangerous Woman

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  June 8th, 2010 at 10:41 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

They called Nikki Haley a whore. They called her a raghead. Now they better start practicing calling her Governor.

Nikki Haley came within a percentage point or two of avoiding a runoff for the Republican nomination in South Carolina. Despite all the smears and all the foul play, she is a winner.

The second place finisher, Congressman Gresham Barrett, goes into the runoff roughly 27% behind Haley.

Generally, the second place finisher in a runoff wins if the margin between first and second is 5% or less. Between 5% and 10%, there is a 50-50 chance either could win. Over 10%, the first place candidate usually wins. Over 15%, the first place candidate will win barring major scandal.

Nikki Haley will win. Gresham Barrett needs to weigh seriously if he wants to drag this out knowing the odds are so totally against him.

This race also makes Nikki Haley the most dangerous woman in South Carolina. The old order, the old way of doing things, has been decidedly defeated. The runoff becomes the last stand — a TARP voting establishmentarian versus the outsider accountant they threw everything at.

In the general election, Nikki Haley will have her work cut out for her. It won’t only be the Democrats out to get her. It will be Republicans too who cannot accept their day is over. They will hate her. They know if she gets elected she will crush them. That makes her all the more dangerous.

It also makes her all the more worthy of our continued support.

The runoff is in two weeks. Give what you can.

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COMMENTS

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  • qsclues

    Looking at the vote totals, two things would have to happen for Barrett to win the runoff:

    1) Everyone who voted for McMaster and Bauer would have to show up for the runoff.
    2) Almost all of them (over 95%) would have to vote for Barrett.

    It doesn’t take someone with a math degree (with an emphasis on probability) from a Big Ten school to figure this one out (although I happen to have one), but Barrett isn’t winning a runoff.

    Or to paraphrase Scott Adams, the odds of it are roughly the same as if you bet on a horse that has never won on a muddy track, and suddenly it starts pouring rain. And the horse has two broken legs. And it’s dead.

  • constitutionalconservative

    And drop out. He has absolutely no hope of winning unless he chooses a scorched-earth campaign– and even then he is likely to lose.

    People need to make clear to him that if he wants a future in SC politics he needs to avoid dragging this out further so we can concentrate on winning the general election.

  • Adjoran

    He’s been in the race for 18 months, essentially declaring just after being reelected to Congress in 2008. He’s worked very hard on his campaign, won Dick Cheney’s endorsement, and was thought to have finally gained momentum in the race when Palin endorsed Haley and sucked all the oxygen in the state.

    When he gets a good night’s sleep, probably for the first time in a year, the reality will begin to set in. And the phone calls from movers and shakers. The establishment network will want him in, even a small chance of derailing Haley is worth the shot to them, but it won’t be their careers in question for the future. Barrett’s not so tied to the legislative establishment in Columbia, though, and at his age could still be thinking about future campaigns.

  • JamesSmith130

    over Haley, whether openly or covertly, should be kicked out of the party. Period.

  • SirGladiator

    Nikki Haley has won in a landslide. Barrett should end his campaign on a high note, he beat everybody else but the next Governor, and that means he’s next in line for whatever is next. However if he insists on wasting the good people of SC’s time and money on a pointless runoff, and finishes second in a two man race, with 30-35 percet of the vote, he’s going to be remembered as a loser, a BIG loser, and also quite dumb. Doing the right thing includes doing the right thing for himself, and its definitely for him to concede, as this race is over.

  • http://www.reddogreport.com reddogreport

    I know that this is a strange word to use in association with South Carolina politics, but the “honorable” thing for Gresham Barrett to do would be to step aside.

    Barrett has no hope and by extending the charade until June 22, all that he accomplishes is wasting taxpayer time and money.

    Please Mr. Barrett, do the honorable thing.

  • http://blog.beliefnet.com/cityofbrass/ Aziz Poonawalla

    If I lived in SC, I’d vote for Nikki Haley.

    Those of you familiar with my views know that is saying something.

    I’d basically support her on teh grounds of showing that this whore/raghead business MUST be defeated, every bit as much as radical Islamist ideologies. The old way, of the good ol boys, must be killed, buried in soft peat for three months, and recycled as firelighters.

  • acat

    Her danger depends on which direction she is facing.

    Old boy networks have served their purpose in history – let them be relegated there, and to riff on your post Aziz, let them light the way forward. (grin)

    Agree, the racist overtones are dreadful and must be called out, regardless of which Americans’ background is being smeared.

    Mew

  • johnt

    Even if true, imagine, an adult woman having sex, my goodness, what’s the world coming to?
    The people who would use this are the same people who would defend Bill Clinton. Enough normal people saw this and shrugged, or yawned.
    I wonder what filth will be dredged up in the future, whatever, a good look into the degenerate minds of liberals.