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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Sharron Angle is in a Good Position Against Harry Reid

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  July 29th, 2010 at 05:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Here is a not so secret dirty little secret. For the past month a lot of conservatives have been nervous over Sharron Angle’s Senate bid in Nevada. Her campaign seemed uncoordinated and unprofessional — amateurishly caught off guard by the hell unleashed on her.

Behind the scenes, Sharron Angle recognized she needed to regroup and reassess. For the past couple of weeks there has been a reorganization, some new faces, and renewed commitment to winning. Angle realizes a lot more is at stake than just beating Harry Reid.

Conservatives went with Angle against Sue Lowden. If Angle screws us, there will be a lot of egg on a lot of conservatives’ faces by the “we told you so” crowd — some of whom would actually like to see Harry Reid win so they can rub it in.

I’ve now been on the ground in Nevada, met with Sharron Angle, gotten to know her updated campaign team, and talked to Nevada voters. Harry Reid should be scared.

Take a look at the various surveys of Nevada, including the latest Rasmussen survey that has it 45% to 43% in favor of Reid, and I’m not so worried about Sharron Angle being two points behind the incumbent Majority Leader of the United States Senate.After left-wing groups have poured more than $11 (ELEVEN) million into Nevada to tar and feather both Sharron Angle and the tea party movement, she is only two points behind. More troubling for Reid, after all the shift in support away from Angle, Reid hovers at 45% and can’t get most of the undecideds to come to him.

It is as if the undecideds want to see some signs of good faith and competence from Angle and they’ll go back to her. Given the Reid ground game in Nevada, it is apparent that he understands this too.

Dive into the numbers and it is easy to see what has Harry Reid so scared and his son afraid to use his last name in his own gubernatorial race.

Angle leads among white voters 48% to 41%.

Angle leads among seniors 48% to 43%.

Among unaffiliated voters, Reid barely wins 41% to 39%. This one is within the margin of error.

Then there are the negatives:

  • Voters who have a strongly negative opinion of Harry Reid outnumber those who have a strongly negative opinion of Sharron Angle 48% to 41%.
  • Seniors who have a strongly negative opinion of Harry Reid outnumber seniors who have a strongly negative opinion of Sharron Angle 47% to 36%; and
  • Unaffiliated voters who have a strongly negative opinion of Harry Reid outnumber unaffiliated voters who have a strongly negative opinion of Angle 52% to 44%.

Add to that data from Rasmussen that 62% of Nevadans have a negative view of Barack Obama and there are lots of danger signs for Harry Reid.

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  • moderaterepub

    The thought police.

    “Here is a not so secret dirty little secret. For the past month a lot of conservatives have been nervous over Sharron Angle?s Senate bid in Nevada. Her campaign seemed uncoordinated and unprofessional ? amateurishly caught off guard by the hell unleashed on her.”

    What?! When I said I was nervous about her campaign I was dragged over the coals for being a mobying concern troll with a bad case of sour grapes.

    You’ve now unmasked yourself and many “conservatives” as radical liberal footsoldiers of the Obama-Reid agenda. Your period as a deep cover Democratic operative is over Erick. You should admit your thought crime against Angle’s campaign – which has been flawless to date – and go join the DailyKos or whatever.

    But seriously, I’m pleased to hear things are not as bad as they look. Here’s hoping that air of competence translates in to something solid like better campaign ads, engagement with the media and new momentum for the campaign.

  • desertwanderer

    After having a huge amount of money spent against her, Angle is still within the margin of error. That’s not too bad.

    Once her reorganizing finishes and she starts spending money, look for the polls to move in her direction. Reid cannot get over the mid-40s, not matter how much he spends. Thus, it is doubtful that enough people will give him another 6 years, knowing how much his policies have already cost them.

  • freddr

    I see that Harry is advertising that “Harry Reid got funds to save 3,500 education jobs”. “Got funds?” “Got funds?” What the heck is “got funds?” Is that something like “got milk?”

    No, it’s more like “Harry Reid took money from our wallets, deducted a 10% commission, and peddled influence with the NEA.” THAT’s what “got funds” means.

    And if Harry Reid gets the credit for 3,500 teaching jobs, he also gets credit for the 300,000 jobs that were stolen from American construction workers and given away to illegal aliens — all “funded” by American taxpayers – by killing SA 239.

    http://97.74.65.51/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=33980

    http://therealharryreid.org/

  • GreyCloak

    I can’t vote there. But I helped John Thune kick Tom Daschle out of the Senate. Send money … it can’t hurt.

    “Reorganize, raise money, look at the polls.” Not a comment about policy or representation. I’ve talked with people in the boondocks of Las Vegas: they are conservative. Republicans should be a shoe-in.

    Did Harry lower unemployment (currently at 14.2%)?

    Did Harry lower foreclosures (<a href=”http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/29/real_estate/new_face_of_foreclosure/”.currently at 1 in 15?

    Talk about the above; it may be too much to ask for some honest plans from candidate Angle, but it would be refreshing.

  • Oz

    I agree with a lot of the above comments that Angle needs to move now to make this about Harry Reid again.

    Talk about foreclosures.

    Talk about FORCED health care the governments way ( Nevadans hate to be forced to do anything).

    Talk about GOVERNMENT CONTROL ( Nevadans hate to be forced to do anything ).

  • SirGladiator

    I appreciate the positive information, no doubt there’s reason to be optimistic, but whether Reid and his supporters spent 11 million or 111 million the fact is that Angle has done a poor job of countering it. Obviously she cant match dollar for dollar or even close when the other side is pouring in that kind of money, but she has to do better than she’s done so far. Its good to hear they realize that, and that they’re bringing in new people who hopefully will know what they’re doing.

    There is no reason why they should be letting Reid drive up her negatives the way that they have, they’re definitely in danger of giving away what should be one of the easiest wins in the entire Country this year. They just need to introduce her to the state, talk about how she supports less spending, lower taxes, and repealing Obamacare. Good stuff like that. When the other side is spending unfathomable amounts of money to savage you, you can’t respond with ‘Unemployment is 14 percent’, people already know that, what they want to know is who Angle is and what she’s going to do about it. That’s what she should tell the voters, and then she will go back to being comfortably ahead.

  • ritaok

    …is rampant, for addressing repeals, reversals and strategies for restoring capitalism, liberty and freedom among republicans, or in their message. The candidates continue to run on: “I’m not the other guy, so, vote for me based on that”. Certainly hope it works, but it doesn’t say much for republican rule and leaves the door open for the stupid party to go back to moderate left indulgences they fell into before they lost their majority. This isn’t really politics as usual, but more related to cowardice and an insult to republican principles and to the electorate. We the people probably need to put a stop to it.

  • taxpayer1234

    Nevadans know Reid sucks, and they know the economy sucks. It’s time for Angle to talk turkey about how she will help turn things around.

  • 4life

    is what Harry Reid repeated again and again at the Netroots convention. I expect he will try that in the campaign, but the problem he will have with that is that he is ‘the powerful’. I’m going to give to Angle again. I gave the first time I heard her speak. She is sharp and I think she can do it. I heard her speaking off the cuff and she came off as very competent and able to explain things well, even on the offensive. Hopefully that is the Sharron Angle the people will see from now on.

  • ciscoguy

    Just blaming Harry Reid without making those connections isn’t very effective and just sounds like politicking. Explain how Obamacare makes coverage more expensive, how the porkulus bill was an abject failure. Explain how he was the one shepherding all the votes for these bills through the Senate. HE was the one brokering the bribes and payoffs for Obamacare.

    It’s common sense to us, but there are a lot of undecided voters in NV who aren’t totally engaged. They know they don’t really like Reid, but they aren’t sure exactly why. They need to learn what this man has done, and why he is attacking her instead of running on his record.

    This seat can easily be won if it is fought the right way.

  • joayn

    Over and over and over. It’s all about messaging and information and putting all who wish to derail her campaign in a defensive position. Reid, the media, unions, etc.

    Based on what I’ve seen and heard about her, she can clearly do this.

  • morstar150

    This election is critical. She is within stiking distance. Just pick apart the speach that Harry the weasel gave at the leftist blog party. He said so many troubling things in that speach, repackagage it and feed it back to the public.

    He tried to stay out of the mess by talking about the “history of the U.S.” as though we need to hear the revisionist view (right out of George Orwell). He couldn’t talk about the present too much because they have created such a mess. Instead they keep lynching George Bush. He’s to blame for the $2 trillion debt, he’s to blame for unemployment of 10%, he’s to blame for the oil spill, he’s to blame for uncertainty in the equity markets, he’s to blame for the destruction of small banks, and with all this destruction around us at least Harry has saved Fannie and Freddie and mortgages for those who cannot pay them back.

    Voters are smarter than the elites think. They will pay a big price. The unemployment roles will go up, at least for a Democrat Mjority Leader in Nevada.

  • trp878

    “A contrario”- (From a contrary position)
    Reid is a joke. If Nevadan’s vote him in again they will show their own ignorance. “We the People” have total faith in our ability to “Throw the Bum Out” and will, regardless of the polls. Whatever Angle said was twisted and regurgitated by the Main Stream Media. She probably meant she believes so strongly that through all of the “believers” prayers, it is a “Divine Intervention” of our living God that has helped her campaign so ardently. Remember folks we are trying to turn Our Country back to God and our founding fathers solid Christian standings; so if Angle believes that strongly and all other believers are praying for her then she’s in the race and will win no matter what
    “If God is number-one in your life, then everything else will find its proper balance. If He is not, then everything else will fall into chaos.”

  • deano64

    not win against that fact alone? I like Angle’s chances.

  • RealQuiet

    I posted on this yesterday and I believe Angle is in a good position…for now. What I am concerned about is Harry Reid getting a 5 point or greater lead heading into Labor Day. These next four weeks are going to be critical. Reid has dropped an obscene amount of money for 24/7 TV ads in the hope of taking out Angle by getting an insurmountable lead. He hasn’t. I think the Angle campaign has been very disciplined, patient and shrewd. They have been very good. It must be speculated that the Angle campaign will launch a huge counter assault on Reid starting on Labor Day when people start paying attention. They don’t want to jeopardize their financial position by starting to float TV ads on the airwaves a month earlier. I thought it might be a good idea getting a money bomb for Angle so she could start running some TV ads this coming month to absolve the financial risk of her campaign making an earlier move on TV than what they wanted. Harry Reid is desperate to get ahead of her and have a cushion when Labor Day arrives. Why not assure keeping him right where he is at now with the money bomb to finance the TV advertising for the month of August? Then when Labor Day arrives, Angle can let Reid have it with both barrels. Of course, if the Angle campaign even though if they received this money bomb for August TV advertising, might hold onto it and still wait for September because they are confident that Reid cannot go any higher. Tough decision to make. They will likely be watching the polling very closely for the next four weeks. At the very least, the money bomb would be Angle’s cushion to move and react accordingly to any fluctuation in this critical period.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Rasmussen’s poll where a pretty sizable piece of the electorate worries she is too extreme and it has now gone to Leans Democrat. If at this point things are going in the wrong direction, <a href=’http://article.nationalreview.com/435010/the-anti-beer-libertarian/jim-geraghty‘it will become out of reach latter in the year.

    Frankly, and in deference to your comments of a poorly run campaign, that should be Harry Reid’s moniker. The agenda Congress has been running with Harry at the helm is the most “radical” in our history. How he is still not painted as the real “radical” is simply beyond reasoning. Reid has already proven that he has and will continue to used his office to push this Presidents destruction of our country.

    It was telegraphed a long time ago that Democrats would use this strategy and it has been successful. There is zero excuse for not effectively countering that positioning and therefore no reason for optimism IMO.

  • IJB

    I think Angle needs to bide her time in August – just make sure her and Reid’s numbers stay steady about where they are.

    Then unleash the Kraken! in September all over the airwaves.

    But I agree with Erick – this race was always going to be a three-act play:

    1. Angle’s surprise Spring primary victory launches her poll surge.
    2. All Summer Reid pounds Angle and her numbers come down (but not his up).
    3. Fall hits, and Angle unleashes her spending on ads, finally putting herself ahead, and burying Reid.

    We’re only in Act 2 right now. Act 3 is yet to come.

    (That said, Jim Geraghty has some good points for the Angle campaign – she can’t continue with a “shrug of the shoulders” answer when people ask her about job creation – that kind of thing isn’t going to cut it, even with conservative-friendly audiences. As long as Angle tightens up on stuff like this, I think this race will be won. And fairly easily…)

  • ralatredstate

    the “Help Is on the Way” ad, but she needs to show cause and effect, not just before and after.

  • soljerblue

    that particular Republican astigmatism — a Beltway Blindness, I call it, absolutely must be surgically removed by a solid conservative presence in the House and Senate before any effort to dismantle the progressive agenda can be successful. It’s the GOP leadership that most needs a transfusion of old-fashioned small-government principles. The go-along-to-get-along philosophy has never worked and must be abandoned. Only a strong presence of constitutional conservatives will be able to force that change in leadership perspective. It will be easier, I think, to do it in the House than in the Senate, where collegiality and too much by-your-leave still holds sway.

  • alwayson9

    The only thing Angle has to do is run an ad that shows the clip of Harry Reid saying (and I am not entirely sure of the exact words/numbers) “It has been a good day, only 50,000 people lost their jobs today”. It lasts about 5-10 seconds and was widely broadcast on the web earlier this year I believe. After the clip has run, a voiceover intones “Harry Reid, is he really this uncaring for the people of Nevada, or is he just stupid?”

  • soljerblue

    and has worked in the past in my experience. When Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama first ran for the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat, he took on incumbent Republican Jerimiah Denton. Shelby was a Congressman, not widely known. Denton was a Vietnam War hero, well known in the state, and had been the first Republican senator from our state since Reconstruction. All throughout the summer Denton led in the polls, at times by as much as 25 points. Shelby laid low, Denton stayed mostly in DC, and did little campaigning, and the summer passed with hughe amounts of ink and t-v time dedicated to the vicious infighting among Democrats over primary rules, crossover votes, and other party issues. But after Labor Day, when folks started paying attention, Shelby and his campaign team jumped in with both feet, and adroitly whittled away Denton’s lead. Come election day, Shelby won a narrow victory, and has never looked back.

    My point is — the polls in July don’t necessarily look anywhere near what they’ll show in October, or the weekend before the election. A poll is nothing more than a snapshot that’s outdated the moment it’s completed.

    Save the ammo for the fall, when it’s really needed. Keep things close, and line up your money and your troops, and let the summer pass. And be ready for the big Brawl In The Fall. :-)

  • jonreagan

    I agree with you that the ad was well crafted, and speaks to Reid’s vulnerabilities, given that Nevada’s unemployment rate is among the highest in the country.

    Unfortunately, this is yet another case where Mrs. Angle’s statements tend to step on her most potent issues. She made a statement earlier in the summer that as a Senator, “she wouldn’t be in the business of creating jobs.” Obviously, the #1 issue in the upcoming campaign is the economy and jobs. But Angle’s statement will now come back to haunt her any time she attempts to exploit the issue against Reid.

    While I think that she probably meant that jobs should come from the private sector—as opposed to government stimulus programs—that’s not what comes across in the age of the 20-second sound bite. And there are at least a half dozen other statements—ranging from Social Security to the BP relief fund—that are going to dog her for this entire campaign.

  • finaljeopardy

    … how you express your concern. It sounds like you were negative instead of admitting that though this is a challenge for Angle, any incumbent below 50% in a poll is treading water at best.

    When the “thought police come” it sounds like this: BLAM. You will likely work yourself up at some point and cross a line. Whining sounds like you’re getting there quickly.

  • finaljeopardy

    Reid is a creature of the Beltway. Angle has taken local concerns to SCOTUS. She can get specific later, but why give Dingy Harry ammo now? He is dumping millions trying to paint her as an extremist, and polls show it isn’t working. Angle needs to spend this time connecting with local voters and reassuring them that she really wants to help them. Probably, she can do a better job, except buying up the airwaves at this point is costly and futile. She should save her war chest for later unless she is outside the MOE.

  • finaljeopardy

    He had to campaign once, too, and I don’t see much difference between the two. Angle has a good sense of humor. She’s warm, sharp and confident.

  • finaljeopardy

    She’s not running as a social con, but she has their support. This just proves Nevada is not a libertarian state. Las Vegas is not a libertarian town. There is a reason the state went blue last election. That reason is unions and retirees from CA who move to Reno for the tax breaks. Maybe that’s why the NRSC and RNC backed Sue Lowden. But she would have lost to Reid, because he would seem more to the right than her.

  • finaljeopardy

    NT

  • finaljeopardy

    The government should not be creating jobs. She should explain how our irresponsible spending is killing the economy. That is an easy case to make, and I think Angle can pull this off.

  • IJB

    She has to point to *specific* instances where cutting federal regulations or federal taxes will lead to private sector job creation.

    jonreagan’s right about one thing – Angle can’t just shrug her shoulders when she gets job creation questions. She’s got to be ready with a list of *positive* things she can do as Senator to further job creation.

    Her earlier quote won’t be fatal as long as she gets an acceptable answer on this issue into her repertoire *now*. (And, honestly, I don’t think that will be that hard to do, so I doubt this issue well harm her at all, long-term…)

  • crassus

    If Harry Reid is defeated, it will be huge. We need to step up the effort by Sharron Angle. I think the single biggest thing is turnout. People must turnout to turn Harry Reid out of office. The race will be decided by 5 points or less.

  • crassus

    If Harry Reid is defeated, it will be huge. We need to step up the effort by Sharron Angle. I think the single biggest thing is turnout. People must turnout to turn Harry Reid out of office. The race will be decided by 5 points or less.

  • tragiconda

    Defeating Reid would be the penultimate rebuke to Obama and all he’s wrought.
    It would be proof positive that the people clearly reject all that he and Pelosi have tirelessly pushed.
    In short, a back-breaker for the entire democratic party.
    If the Chamber of Commerce indeed is going to spend 75 million this cycle, they should spend a SIZABLE chunk in support of Angle.
    This race SHOULD be a mortal lock, with Nevada in complete shambles by every measure PLUS Reid’s key part in all things Obama that the majority clearly oppose.
    This lady needs serious help from the absolute best that the GOP bigwigs can offer in terms of effective campaigning and monetary support.
    I hope they realize this in a hurry.

  • finaljeopardy

    Angle can get a little wonkish, and as a former school teacher and activist, this is a good look for her. It beats Harry’s “bring home the bacon” narrative.

  • wideranger

    I suggest Angle continue to apply pressure on Reid all the way to November. Reid is not very good at replying to pressure, and even worse in convincing voters he knows what he is talking about. Pressure keeps him off balance and Angle gains points. But, a ‘crises’ (an attack on Iran?) could occur just prior to the election which the Democrasies would exploit and try to get voters to retain the Dems now in office. It could produce a shift of 5% or 6% in votes for Reid and keep him in office. Reid is running scared and spending untold millions of dollars in Union contributions…KEEP HIM RUNNING SCARED RIGHT OUT OF THE SENATE!

  • wideranger

    I suggest Angle continue to apply pressure on Reid all the way to November. Reid is not very good at replying to pressure, and even worse in convincing voters he knows what he is talking about. Pressure keeps him off balance and Angle gains points. But, a ‘crises’ (an attack on Iran?) could occur just prior to the election which the Democrasies would exploit and try to get voters to retain the Dems now in office. It could produce a shift of 5% or 6% in votes for Reid and keep him in office. Reid is running scared and spending untold millions of dollars in Union contributions…KEEP HIM RUNNING SCARED RIGHT OUT OF THE SENATE!

  • texsizzle

    pe?nul?ti?mate (p-nlt-mt)
    adj. 1. Next to last; 2. Linguistics Of or relating to the penult of a word: penultimate stress.
    n. The next to the last.
    [From Latin paenultimus; see penult.]
    pe?nulti?mate?ly adv.

    What would be the last rebuke?

    The Republican Party seems to be more interested in protecting the party establishment than helping “outsiders”; we need to contribute financially directly to candidates we support, including Sharron Angle. Change to the party will have to come from the bottom up.