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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

What Was Before Is Again

The New York Times ran an article over the weekend that the House of Representatives is still not in the hands of the GOP. A Newsweek survey came out with an oddity of a generic ballot answer. Gallup has been jumping all over the place.

Had I a show, I’d say “roll the tape.” Instead, you’ll have to settle for this.

Here’s Charlie Cook’s review of the October generic ballot data trickling out:

In polls by the Gallup Organization for CNN and USA Today, among all adult Americans, Republicans have now been ahead of Democrats on the generic ballot test in all five surveys taken since mid-August. In the most recent poll, taken last Tuesday and Wednesday, Republicans had a 3-point advantage among registered voters, 48 to 45 percent.

A CBS News poll … among registered voters still found a narrow one-point Democratic edge, 42 to 41 percent, but that’s compared to a 10-point Democratic advantage in October 1992.

An … ABC News poll found a 3-point Republican advantage among adults nationwide, 47 to 44 percent, compared to a 6-point GOP edge in both September and August ABC/Washington Post polls.

Tim Curran in Roll Call noted, “[A] slew of late polls show key races tightening around the country” and there were “indications of a slight Democratic comeback last week.”

Hotline reported “recent polls showing Dems even or leading in generic ballot questions” and asked Bill Kristol for comment. Kristol said, “Republicans have not gotten as many votes across the nation as Democrats in a Congressional race in 40 years.”

Margaret Carlson is on television saying of the GOP’s insurgency, “The corks were popped a little early.”

David Lauter, writing in the Los Angeles Times, reports

Asked which party can do a better job on the country’s major problems, 36% favored Republicans, 29% chose Democrats and 15% said neither party….

The GOP holds similar edges on individual issues, including crime, welfare reform, the economy and the federal budget deficit. Even on health care, where the Democrats once enjoyed a large margin, the two sides are now even, at 38%, with 14% saying that neither party is up to the job.

The GOP edge generally has not come about because Republicans have won major improvements in their ratings as problem-solvers. Instead, respondents turned away from the Democrats, dropping their ratings. Moreover, the percentage saying they think that neither party can handle the nation’s problems has risen.

Yes, yes, the nation hates the GOP, but wants the GOP in charge.

Now, here’s the catch — all of those stories were from October of 1994 ranging from 4 weeks to a week before the November 8, 1994, sweep of the GOP.

The polls were tightening. The Democrats were again neck and neck with the GOP in 1994. Not only that, but the economy had improved. The recession was not only declared over, but employment was significantly on the rise.

The President was on the campaign trail in October of 1994 trying to rev up black voters and telling people not to go back to the era of George Bush. Same this year.

On October 9, 1994, a month out from the November 8, 1994 election, the Washington Post’s Kevin Merida wrote, “One matchup pits William Frist (R), a wealthy heart-lung transplant surgeon from Nashville, against Sen. Jim Sasser (D), an 18-year veteran who chairs the Budget Committee and is making a strong bid to be the next Senate majority leader. Though some polls have showed the race tightening, several independent analysts doubt that Frist has enough to knock Sasser out. But he is trying.”

Bill Frist won the race 56% to 42%

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COMMENTS

  • VanishingNYRep

    I am glad that Erick has done the research that proves me to be correct. Over the last few weeks I have made a few comments to various posts that the Dem-libs saw 1994 coming and refused to believe it and that is 1994 they had the lamestream media to back them up and the money to throw dirt on the GOP.

    This year the exact same thing is happening. Only this time, despite the Dem-libs and media’s wishfule thinking, the GOP wave will be even greater. The House will flip and the Senate will go also.

    Don’t be discouraged by the lamestream media. Work for your candidates and get out the vote.

  • The Moat

    We know there’s an “enthusiasm gap” out there, but I don’t know that anybody’s tried to quantify it beyond their normal “likely voter” analysis.

    Sure, the polls have been mostly on track with the primary elections, but I wouldn’t expect to see such an enthusiasm gap play much of a role in intra-party politics.

    I keep flashing back to the Prop C vote in MO this summer; one of the few “Left v. Right” elections we’ve had this year. If you’ll recall, the actual results looked nothing like the polls.

    My guess is that the pollsters are relying heavily on past voting behavior in screening people for their “likely” label. People without a strong record of voting may be coming out of the woodwork this year to make a difference.

  • acat

    2010 based on 2008 and 2006, expecting a “normal” reaction – but these are not “normal” times and their metrics are just wrong.

    What’s going to happen is anybody’s guess, but .. to any Repub candidate for any office who reads this, I strongly suggest not issuing any election-night concession *at all*. Make ‘em finish counting the ballots.

    Mew

  • janis

    if they were simultaneously running the results of polls that show how much the American public universally loathes and distrusts the media at this point.

    Then we could talk. But mostly to point and laugh.

  • Russ Martin

    I will crawl across broken glass, in order to cast my vote on Nov. 2nd. I think many Americans have a similar attitude, includingmany that haven’t been engaged in the political process in years past. I don’t think the dims are nearly as fired up. I still think that we will win a significant percentage of races that are within the margin of error – simply because of turnout.

    For the sake of the country, I hope I’m right.

  • Russ Martin

    I will crawl across broken glass, in order to cast my vote on Nov. 2nd. I think many Americans have a similar attitude, includingmany that haven’t been engaged in the political process in years past. I don’t think the dims are nearly as fired up. I still think that we will win a significant percentage of races that are within the margin of error – simply because of turnout.

    For the sake of the country, I hope I’m right.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    That is, by promoting the message that the Democrats are coming up, they hope to flog enthusiasm among Democratic voters to encourage them to go to the polls.

    That is, for those Democrats who’ve gotten discouraged and would likely decide to stay home, when the media says it’s a close race, then they are more likely to show up thinking their vote may make a difference after all.

    In turn, if the number of Democrats in the “likely voter” category increase, that would start a shift in the polling numbers towards the Democrats, which in turn would reinforce the meme.

    That’s the plan, anyway

    Seems like a hail Mary effort to turn the numbers sponsored by your mainstream media public relations arm of the DNC.

    But since the media have never before been so unitary in their promotion of the Democratic Party, we don’t have historical precedent to know how this coordinated action will affect races, particularly the ones that are close today.

    But given that wavering Democrats are more likely to give credence to the media than the general population…well, enough with the speculating.

    We’ll just have to see how honest pollsters measure what impact, if any, this media blitz will have. Hopefully we’ll have some answers in the next few days to week.

  • acat

    It’s not anything concrete, it’s .. atmospheric? A ‘wave in the air’ kind of a thing,.. but…

    I think the media overpromised so badly on Obama that people are now taking everything they say with far more salt than they were in 2006 and 2008….

    I also think pollsters are going to come out of 2010 with massive egg on their faces, having to go back and re-think their models quite a bit.

    Mew

  • conservativecurmudgeon

    ..It’s striking up the whole stinkin’ band!

    Don’t forget the degree to which the last election skews the poll samples. But, even more important than this, is the inability of most liberal elite observers and political operatives (Think Schrum) to accept the degree to which they are a cultural minority, and have been for at least 80 years.

    ALL of the presidential elections in the last 100 years that resulted in Liberal/Statist/Progressive victories were the product of twisted electoral math or extraordinary circumstances. 1912? TR bolted into a third party egoist run, resulting in Wilson. 1932? Obviously the deepening of the depression (and FDR barely got the renomination of his party in 1940), 1964? Mourning for JFK. 1976? Ghosts of Watergate. 1992? Ross Perot siphoning off natural libertarians from G.H.W. Bush. 2008? Currency speculation by George Soros to implode the American economy at precisely the right time for Obama.

    NEVER in recent American history has “Progressivism” ever dominated on its merits, and it won’t this election, either.

  • acat

    The Union Dems in Nebraska, who control the train lines through bright-red DuPage County have made a habit of stopping freights on the tracks on election day.

    Like you, I’ll get to the polls regardless, but .. I do think the “enthusiasm gap” favors the Tea Party…. and therefore the Repubs so .. if there are freights stuck for most of the day, I’ll be laughing at the blue-on-blue pock-up.

    Mew

  • acat

    Neil, I think, had something up on a poll in Florida showing the Dem, Meeks making progress. Made it sound like he had momentum.

    Then, the Red Stater showed the polling numbers – which is why I’m remembering it as Neil – and Meeks is in last place in a 3-way race with no possible way to win.

    Mew

  • JoeG

    I suspect many reliable Dem voters will sit at home for this election.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister
  • proudgop

    we have to keep on fighting, volunteering, getting vote out for our side. Get people to register absentee if they are in college asap and help work for your republican congressional, senator, or governor candidate in your area

  • janis

    ones who use and abuse those models in stocks on the village green. Followed by a series of guest shots on that Fox Series “Lie to Me” with Tim Roth.

  • gwalt

    “Dear ABC, CBS AND NBC: Please just come out and admit that you work for Democrats already”.

    Put this in WSJ, billboard, or TV ad. Go viral on YouRube. I’ve had enough of them carrying water and pretending to be objective.

    OUR October surprise should be us attacking the media exactly like they attack Conservatives. The only difference would be they can’t take it.

    Start the fund RS and get other sites to post where to give to go after Couric, Lauer and all the other commies. I’m in for a hunny.

  • IJB

    I am truly puzzled about this – is the LSM is trying to convince *themselves* that the Dems still have a chance, or whether they are foolishly trying to convince the *public* of it?!

    But, it makes no sense – is it even remotely believable that GOP SEN candidates are *surging* in NH, CT, FL, NC, WV, OH, WI, CO, and WA, while at the same time the *national* numbers are “shifting” in the Dems’ direction?! It’s complete nonsense.

    What I find particularly odd about this, is that the LSM is trying this line *now* instead of two weeks from now – all they are doing is setting up a future narrative that the GOP is “surging” in mid-Oct: that’ll pretty much *finish* any chance of rebounded Dem turnout on Election Day! It’s just dumb…

  • eburke

    of where the *facts* say this race is based on 3 or so scenarios. It’s good stuff. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-special-state-race-edition

    Bottom line – Absolute best case for the Dems: Control of Congress in name only; Most ‘reasonable’ result based on polls and the history: 50+ seats for Republicans. Best case for Pubs? – a bloodbath for the Dems of unprecedented proportions in the last 100 years.

  • eburke

    of where the *facts* say this race is based on 3 or so scenarios. It’s good stuff. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-special-state-race-edition

    Bottom line – Absolute best case for the Dems: Control of Congress in name only; Most ‘reasonable’ result based on polls and the history: 50+ seats for Republicans. Best case for Pubs? – a bloodbath for the Dems of unprecedented proportions in the last 100 years.

  • mypalfish

    And support for the repeal of Obamacare is way down, as well. Something is going on, but I’m not sure what. Maybe all the Dem advertising is having an effect? Maybe the GOP did peak too soon? Maybe voters are just now paying attention? GOP candidates running crappy campaigns?

    Rasmussenreports.com

  • Ghost of John Brown

    The thought that comes to mind is Reagan relating to the Russians – “Trust but verify”. Yes, I believe the same thing is happening with the main stream press trying to drum up support for the dems, (trust), but we need to make SURE that our side wins (verify). I think all can agree that this is a strange year. Races that few expected to be close are and “safe” Congresscritters suddenly not feeling so safe. Add to that the trend in polling problems related to more and more people not having “land lines” and only relying on cell phones, and the polls could be severely out of whack.

    Polls say that we are ahead – OK. Polls say we are behind – OK. I don’t care either way. We have to ACT like we are 5 points behind in the polls. Work hard people – we are only a month away.

  • Ghost of John Brown

    The thought that comes to mind is Reagan relating to the Russians – “Trust but verify”. Yes, I believe the same thing is happening with the main stream press trying to drum up support for the dems, (trust), but we need to make SURE that our side wins (verify). I think all can agree that this is a strange year. Races that few expected to be close are and “safe” Congresscritters suddenly not feeling so safe. Add to that the trend in polling problems related to more and more people not having “land lines” and only relying on cell phones, and the polls could be severely out of whack.

    Polls say that we are ahead – OK. Polls say we are behind – OK. I don’t care either way. We have to ACT like we are 5 points behind in the polls. Work hard people – we are only a month away.

  • mypalfish

    And the mood is very different than a few weeks ago. To be honest, there was not only confidence, but maybe overconfidence bordering on cockiness a little while ago. Now, I hear things like “if we lose this…”. WI is being blitzkrieged by ads against Walker, and he has almost gone totally “dark” in response due to having to spend his money in the primary.

    IMO, if polls start to show a real tightening (or God forbid, the Dems take the lead), things will get real ugly real fast. The success in the polls was breeding interest, confidence and energy. Volunteers (like myself) are crucial for GOTV efforts, and our numbers did go up when things looked like they were breaking our way.

    If you can spare any cash, Scott Walker could sure use some help!!

  • neum432

    the same thing happended in ’94. Stories and polls came out saying that the races were tightening and so on. This is just an effort to depress you, don’t let it work!

  • IJB

    Right now, I think we’re just getting a “dead cat bounce” for Dems – Dem House incumbents have had the airwaves to themselves over the past couple of weeks; only now are GOP House challengers starting to advertise on their own.

    IOW, there should be a ‘bounce back’ starting now.

    However, if this persists through the next two weeks, *then* I’ll panic…

  • acat

    Thank Bill Clinton.

    Mew

  • mirac777

    It is in keeping with the idea that if you tell a lies long enough people will accept it as the truth.Dems are bleeding profusely, yet instead of putting a bandage on the wound, they choose to ignore reality.They will bleed to death next month, which is a good thing for America.

    I am optimistic that with some teaparty Reps in Congress, and the people staying right on top of these politicians, we can have a good base for some real reforms in America.We need to push for real Patriots and people who will uphold the constitution and our laws to be in positions of power also.NO RINOS at the head of the ways and means committee or the other important ones. People like Issa, Ryan, and Cantor need to be put in as Chairmen.

    This will show the people that the GOP is serious about repairing Congress and installing some fiscal responsibility back into out Gov’t. If not, in 2012 when we boot the Head Socialist liberal Obama out,we will also be looking at some very crucial Senatorial elections. We must keep the heat on all of them from now on.Do you hear me GOP? We are watching.

  • etexfisherman48

    Our honest conversation concerning the election should be short and sweet in this era of soundbites. A vote for a Democrat is a vote for communism pure and simple. A Democrats voting record reveals how he voted with the party leadership’s demand well over 90% of the time so for him to say he votes for his constituents or he is an independent is a big fat lie. The leadership of the Democratic Party votes and supports communistic policy and until we fire all Democrats and start over America in a few short years will find themselves in an irreversible communist state of being.

  • nunleigh

    Thank you, Erick, for a happy morning start. The recent polls showing Democratic gains have been a bit frightening, though I suspected they might have been purposefully pumped up by some fawning pollsters in order to help push reluctant donors and voters to get involved in the Democratic lost causes. I find myself suspicious and questioning everything these days; a sad sign of the times we are in. I will trust this offering from you today. Thanks again!

  • tlhanger

    I have taken two polls lately. Both offered answers that some were right on and easy. But a few questions none of the answers given were the answer I would of put. You cannot skip that question. I feel those polls are rigged. I am not a poll taker very often, so maybe it was me.
    I asked Zogby a few years ago how when rating someone fair that is interpreted. It is negative. Everyone should know that.

  • morstar150

    Get out and work for your candidates. Get them elected, get out the conservative vote. We will sort it out on November 3rd.

  • timchgo9

    about the LSM, as much as I do the union presence. A friend of mine, who is God fearing Republican is a Union member around here, and he is saying that the pressure is on across the board for volunteers to sign up as election judges, as well as other poll workers, as well as getting out and pounding the pavement for the D candidates around here.(Quinn, Giannouliass, especially) He has also seen/heard of some co-ordination between unions, for election day “activities” and it almost always included SEIU people. I am not sure what to make about any of this, but I am anticipating problems on November 2nd, even though I am an election judge at a polling place in a small precinct in the town I live in. I do remember the mood, even during the primary election, plenty of angry voters, looking for a change to happen, both at a local level as well as State and Congressional. I don’t have the numbers, but I do remember passing out quite a few Republican ballots. We also had a few people who came in, who hadn’t (or so the claimed) voted in years, and were voting to start the process toward change.

    My friend has told me, though, that the pressure to vote Dem from the Union bosses is more than he has ever seen in the 25 years he has been in the Union. He has been asked repeatedly, who he is voting for by the handful of activists where he works.

    I am predicting voter fraud on a truly massive scale come Nov 2. I have said it before, and will say it again. The Commie/Socialist left hasn’t been this close to completely taking over EVER, they are not going to go quietly, or without a fight. In some places, I strongly feel that this is not going to be an election, it is going to be a street fight.

    Be ready for the aftermath folks… it’s going to be ugly.

  • edwlstr

    I will not listen to my enemy tell me I am losing. Even when I wipe away the blood from my eyes so that I can see the fear in his eyes, I will tighten my grip around his throat. And I will not release my grip until his limp and lifeless form falls to the ground. I am committed to combat until well after Nov. 2012. Their polls simply tell me that the bear is wounded, uninjured bears don’t make much noise. Let’s take back our government and retire Zerobama back to Kenya.

  • hidlins

    so the people can get to the voting polls.

  • ihateliberals

    vote for socialism, communism etc. The problem is that our youth have been brain washed to think that is the way to world peace and harmony. They are being taught in school that the government is the answer to their problems. the only way we can overcome this is to make sure that the adults get out and vote for the conservatives.

  • edwlstr

    Going between cars to get to vans/buses is damn dangerous. If they block you at the tracks, we can lobby congress to eliminate all railroad subsidies. There ARE ways to defeat railroads, but they do own considerable shares in the Federal government. So, expect they worst from the “Iron Horses” ass.

  • ihateliberals

    n

  • acat

    and we’re motivated enough to use ‘em.

    Mew

  • kenchely

    In 1994, the Democrats didn’t really think the Republicans could take over the Congress. At most they were going to score some gains and make the two houses close. The actual result was a sledge hammer blow on the head.

    This time the Democrats know that the House is likely to flip and that the Senate is in play. In 1994, their loss of the House lasted 12 years; likewise the Senate except for a brief period in 2001-2002 after Jim Jeffords jumped parties. They do not want this to happen. So the gloves are off. Any close election will be a Democratic victory, because they will demand recount after recount after recount until a count shows them ahead, at which point, somehow or other, the counting magically stops.

    The dirt in the ads will be absolutely shameless–Grayson’s monstrosity is but the tip of the iceberg. Fasten your seatbelts–the next month will be a VERY bumpy ride.

  • kenchely

    In 1994, the Democrats didn’t really think the Republicans could take over the Congress. At most they were going to score some gains and make the two houses close. The actual result was a sledge hammer blow on the head.

    This time the Democrats know that the House is likely to flip and that the Senate is in play. In 1994, their loss of the House lasted 12 years; likewise the Senate except for a brief period in 2001-2002 after Jim Jeffords jumped parties. They do not want this to happen. So the gloves are off. Any close election will be a Democratic victory, because they will demand recount after recount after recount until a count shows them ahead, at which point, somehow or other, the counting magically stops.

    The dirt in the ads will be absolutely shameless–Grayson’s monstrosity is but the tip of the iceberg. Fasten your seatbelts–the next month will be a VERY bumpy ride.