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Sharron Angle Now Leads Harry Reid. West Virginia In Play

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 5th, 2010 at 10:49 AM  | 

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In the latest Fox News Battleground Poll Sharron Angle has now raced into the lead against Harry Reid.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

Likewise in West Virginia, a seat the Democrats just knew would be theirs to keep, the Republican, John Raese, is ahead 48 to 43.

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  • irishfreedomfighter

    It’s a bit misleading.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    Go write your own. ;)

    Considering the last poll was only a few weeks ago and showed them neck and neck, yes she has now raced from that poll into a lead.

  • chipbennett

    I think he means “has now raced into the lead”.

  • IJB

    OK, then how about – Angle has been consistently whittling down Reid’s “lead” for weeks to the point now where his lead is basically gone. Would that satisfy you?!…

    (Also, I’ll note that this is the first NV SEN poll in over a week, so Erick’s characterization may in fact be borne out – it may very well be that Angle has taken the lead over the past week, but there were not other polls out to show it.)

  • scarlos

    Most notably that Reid is winning 94% of non-white voters. I don’t think Obama won that Percentage of BLACKS in Nevada in 20008, let alone the far more swing-y Hispanics that make up much more of the state’s nonwhite population.

    Also, there are more men than women, though interestingly women prefer Angle while men prefer Reid, suggesting that this is actually hurting Angle.

    there are also slightly more Republicans than Democrats in this poll, which fits in nicely with Nevada’s roughly 6:5 registration edge for the Democrats.

    In other words, this is probably an understatement of Angle’s support in the state.

  • irishfreedomfighter

    I probably should keep my mouth shut, but I haven’t got any sleep the past two nights due to incoming exams that seem to all be at the end of the week, for whatever reason. So I apologize for crankily cherry-picking your post.

    Don’t mind me, I’m as grumpy as my representative was last year when he picked me to ask him a question, and was astonished that I wasn’t a liberal. The look on his face was priceless.

  • irishfreedomfighter

    I probably should keep my mouth shut, but I haven’t got any sleep the past two nights due to incoming exams that seem to all be at the end of the week, for whatever reason. So I apologize for crankily cherry-picking your post.

    Don’t mind me, I’m as grumpy as my representative was last year when he picked me to ask him a question, and was astonished that I wasn’t a liberal. The look on his face was priceless.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Raese is popular in state. Not as popular as Manchin, but popular. And Raese doesn’t have Obama’s dead weight around his neck.

    The race closed pretty quickly.

  • earlgrey

    anyone who has frustrated a dem in a townhall meeting deserves a round of appause, IMHO.

  • itsjoanne

    Obama so unpopular in WV, nothing Manchin can do to change that. And I think WV want him to stay in the governor’s chair.

    Raese will make a great Senator, and he is seated in the lame duck session too, so one more conservative there right away. :)

  • swami7774

    linking Manchin to Obama, but has to be somewhat careful.
    If Manchin is as popular as everyone says he is, Raese could go overboard with the linking bit.

  • mboyle1988

    you would see what we saw in CT this week. Last week, McMahon was down an average of 4 points. In polls released so far this week, she’s down more like 10. As soon as it became clear that she could win, the voters re-evaluated and swung back to Blumenthal, demonstrating that, while they are mad at Obama and Democrats, they are not comfortable really electing McMahon. We’ll see where the movement goes in the last four weeks, but my money is on Blumenthal at this point.

    A similar story happened in California. Boxer pulled ahead just as soon as Fiorina looked poised to really win. That race may tighten up again because Boxer is so unpopular while Blumenthal is so well liked. Nevertheless, when voters are not comfortable with the underdog, usually the pattern is that the race will get even or the challenger will pull slightly ahead, then the electorate gets a bit freaked out, and moves substantially back to the front runner.

    In West Virginia, we had Raese up an average of 2.5 in polls from two weeks ago. The Fox poll today put him up 5 points. In other words, as soon as Raese was seen as a viable candidate, he doubled his lead. We’ll see if other polls confirm or negate this trend, but this is seeming to fit the Wisconsin trend more than the Connecticut trend.

    I just have a feeling Angle is going to pull away now that she has the LVRJ endorsement. I say she wins by 5 on election day. That brings us to 50. We need to win Washington to get to 51. That’s pretty daunting to be honest. At least Dino is running a more aggressive campaign this time around. Fiorina might be able to pull it out too. Hell O’Donnell or McMahon might too, but my gut tells me it’s going to come down to Sharron and Dino.

  • sundesy

    The biggest difference between Tea Party candidates and career GOP politicians is the clarity of their position on issues that matter to Americans.

    1) Democrat?s solution is disastrous to economic expansion, capital formation and job creation. If low taxes are good during bad economic times then it is true during good economic times as well. Make this argument consistently and vehemently. Career politicians do not want to make this argument. They want to tax as much as possible without losing the election. Talk about ?not to waste a crisis?, this is the GOP opportunity to make the unabashed argument for small government, low taxes and against excessive regulations that is stifling growth.
    2) Most immigrants come to this country looking for economic opportunity. Particularly Mexicans take tremendous risk paying coyotes, avoiding caught in the cross fire of drug war, physical torture of walking thru heat and tough terrains. It gets really bad after going thru all of these hardships to see no opportunity to make a living. Hit this point why Latinos must support GOP platform to their own benefit. Trusting democrats is losing proposition. Take the example the plight of blacks in America. Despite the rhetoric from the democrats the primary reason the black community is in such a bad shape in Detroit, Oakland, South Central LA, Harlam, New Orleans is due to the democrat policies. Make the argument.
    3) Social values ? or lack of it from the Democrat. How does one expect a school to perform in its primary of goal of educating students when it has other agendas such as condom distribution, XXX sex education, abortion rights, pitting kids against their parents? How can a society not decay when basic values such as heterosexual monogamous relationship, traditional family as a pillar to raise kids, patriotism are on assault? Ask the citizens where they stand.
    4) Government obligations ? as it stands it has been a failure, despite spending TRILLIONS on poverty eradication America now has the highest level of poverty, government cannot meet is medicare and social security obligations, darn it is not even meet the basic necessity of protecting its citizens from foreign enemies ?we can absorb a 9-11 attack, Obama?. Ask the citizens why vote for more for it?

    Every American as well as aspiring to be an American must worry about these. If our citizenship is all about welfare and social security benefits then we are doomed. We will not let it doom, kick Reid and the likes out.

  • fbks

    I went to the Fairbanks Town Hall Miller event last night. He was right on the issues and a good speaker. He said he had been to Wash. recently and was getting GOP support…..
    I voted for him in the primary, and everyone said he didn’ have a chance…I was prepared to vote/support Murkowski for “party unity” and keep a Dem out if Miller lost.
    What Murkowski has been doing since has caused me to detest her. Threatening the media is the last antic. If you check her website she quotes a very questionable poll showing her leading with 40% support. The left wing nuts are on full attack mode and she seems to have more support from the Dems than McAdams.
    Any insight from others on this?

  • mypalfish

    there was a great opportunity for her resulting from the debate. When she asked Blumenthal, “how do you create a job”, he had no idea how to answer, so he kept talking and talking and saying nothing. It was one of those debate moments that became uncomfortable to watch. Make an ad around that question/answer and see if there’s any movement.

  • realisticconservative

    indeed.