Eight Days Left. Here’s a List of Candidates to Choose From.

By: Erick Erickson (Diary) | October 25th, 2010 at 10:26 AM |

RESIZE: AAA

Here is how things are shaping up — in order.

I have prepared the chart below, though truth be told, Club For Growth did all the leg work. I just plugged in websites. I left off the likely D and long shot races to focus on the seriously viable races. There are a lot of them. We only need 39 and there are 37 lean or safe Republican ones already.

I’d start at “Toss Up” and work my way down. I’ve bolded the candidates I like a lot this year. Sean Duffy and Tim Griffin remain at the top of that list, but there are some other stellar candidates.

Note that I cannot link to Nan Hayworth’s website. She and her husband profit from killing children and her husband has advocated policies designed to shut down Catholic hospitals that will not kill children.

Also, although Star Parker is not on the list, I believe she is going to be the surprise of the year.

Rank	2010 Incumbent	District	Nominee	Rating
1	Melancon	LA3	Jeff Landry	Safe R
2	Gordon	TN6	Dianne Black	Safe R
3	Snyder	AR2	Tim Griffin	Likely R
4	Ellsworth	IN8	Larry Bucshon	Likely R
5	Moore, D.	KS3	Kevin Yoder	Likely R
6	Edwards, C.	TX17	Bill Flores	Likely R
7	Kilroy	OH15	Steve Stivers	Likely R
8	Massa	NY29	Tom Reed	Likely R
9	Markey	CO4	Cory Gardner	Likely R
10	Halvorson	IL11	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R
11	Kosmas	FL24	Sandy Adams	Likely R
12	Tanner	TN8	Stephen Fincher	Likely R
13	Dahlkemper	PA3	Mike Kelly	Likely R
14	Driehaus	OH1	Steve Chabot	Lean R
15	Kratovil	MD1	Andy Harris	Lean R
16	Kirkpatrick	AZ1	Paul Gosar	Lean R
17	Perriello	VA5	Robert Hurt	Lean R
18	Nye	VA2	Scott Rigell	Lean R
19	Stupak	MI1	Dan Benishek	Lean R
20	Shea-Porter	NH1	Frank Guinta	Lean R
21	Baird	WA3	Jaime Herrera	Lean R
22	Hodes	NH2	Charlie Bass	Lean R
23	Teague	NM2	Steve Pearce	Lean R
24	Grayson	FL8	Dan Webster	Lean R
25	Kagen	WI8	Reid Ribble	Lean R
26	Kanjorski	PA11	Lou Barletta	Lean R
27	Berry	AR1	Rick Crawford	Lean R
28	Pomeroy	ND1	Richard Berg	Lean R
29	Obey	WI7	Sean Duffy	Lean R
30	Sestak	PA7	Pat Meehan	Lean R
31	Childers	MS1	Alan Nunnelee	Lean R
32	Murphy, P.	PA8	Michael Fitzpatrick	Lean R
33	Kissell	NC8	Harold Johnson	Lean R
34	Titus	NV3	Joe Heck	Toss Up/Tilt R
35	Boyd	FL2	Steve Southerland	Toss Up/Tilt R
36	Boccieri	OH16	Jim Renacci	Toss Up/Tilt R
37	Space	OH18	Bob Gibbs	Toss Up/Tilt R
38	Mollohan	WV1	David McKinley	Toss Up
39	Schauer	MI7	Tim Walberg	Toss Up
40	Herseth Sandlin	SD1	Kristi Noem	Toss Up
41	Marshall	GA8	Austin Scott	Toss Up
42	Spratt	SC5	Mick Mulvaney	Toss Up
43	Mitchell	AZ5	David Schweikert	Toss Up
44	Arcuri	NY24	Richard Hanna	Toss Up
45	Hill	IN9	Todd Young	Toss Up
46	Carney	PA10	Thomas Marino	Toss Up
47	Foster	IL14	Randy Hultgren	Toss Up
48	Hall, J.	NY19	Nan Hayworth	Toss Up
49	Bright	AL2	Martha Roby	Toss Up
50	McNerney	CA11	David Harmer	Toss Up
51	Giffords	AZ8	Jesse Kelly	Toss Up
52	Minnick	ID1	Raul Labrador	Toss Up
53	Salazar	CO3	Scott Tipton	Toss Up
54	Schrader	OR5	Scott Bruun	Toss Up
55	Adler	NJ3	Jon Runyan	Toss Up
56	Klein	FL22	Allen West	Toss Up
57	Hare	IL17	Bobby Schilling	Toss Up
58	Rodriguez, C.	TX23	Quico Canseco	Toss Up
59	Davis, L.	TN4	Scott DesJarlais	Toss Up
60	Chandler	KY6	Andy Barr	Toss Up
61	Boswell	IA3	Brad Zaun	Toss Up
62	Owens	NY23	Matt Doheny	Toss Up
63	Bishop, S.	GA2	Mike Keown	Toss Up
64	Delahunt	MA10	Jeff Perry	Toss Up
65	Donnelly	IN2	Jackie Walorski Swihart	Toss Up
66	Skelton	MO4	Vicky Hartzler	Toss Up
67	Murphy	NY20	Chris Gibson	Toss Up
68	Wilson, C.	OH6	Bill Johnson	Toss Up
69	Taylor	MS4	Steven Palazzo	Toss Up
70	Grijalva	AZ7	Ruth McClung	Toss Up
71	Bishop	NY1	Randy Altschuler	Toss Up/Tilt D
72	Heinrich	NM1	Johnathan L. Barela	Lean D
73	Critz	PA12	Tim Burns	Lean D
74	Boucher	VA9	Morgan Griffith	Lean D
75	Larsen	WA2	John Koster	Lean D
76	Peters	MI9	Rocky Raczkowski	Lean D
77	Connolly	VA11	Keith Fimian	Lean D
78	Maffei	NY25	Ann Marie Buerkle	Lean D
79	Sanchez, Loretta	CA47	Van Tran	Lean D
80	Kind	WI3	Dan Kapanke	Lean D
81	McMahon	NY13	Michael Grimm	Lean D
82	Altmire	PA4	Keith Rothfus	Lean D
83	Walz	MN1	Randy Demmer	Lean D
84	Murphy, C.	CT5	Sam Caliguri	Lean D
85	Sutton	OH13	Tom Ganley	Lean D
86	Rahall	WV3	Elliot “Spike” Maynard	Lean D
87	Himes	CT4	Dan Debicella	Lean D
88	Shuler	NC11	Jeff Miller	Lean D
89	McIntyre	NC7	Ilario Pantano	Lean D
90	Perlmutter	CO7	Ryan Frazier	Lean D
91	Pallone Jr.	NJ6	Anna Little	Lean D
92	Kennedy, P.	RI1	John Loughlin	Lean D
93	Etheridge	NC2	Renee Ellmers	Lean D
94	Costa	CA20	Andy Vidak	Lean D
95	Loebsack	IA2	Marianette Miller-Meeks	Lean D
96	Oberstar	MN8	Chip Cravaack	Lean D
97	Braley	IA1	Benjamin Lange	Lean D
98	Hinchey	NY22	George Phillips	Lean D
99	Carnahan	MO3	Ed Martin	Lean D

Tags: 2010, Congress

COMMENTS

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Coop

It’s just staggering how many House take-over opportunities the GOP has this cycle. And the Democrats for their part have only about a half dozen, at best. I think several of those Lean D races are more likely Toss-ups, but at this point the important thing is they’re all winnable if we donate our time and money, vote next Tuesday, and insist that like-minded family and friends do the same.
qixlqatl

Sanford Bishop on that list He may be the congressman from my district, but he is [i]not[/i] our representative…
irishfreedomfighter

will be the first real conservative from New England for a long time. He’s a great conservative.

And Nan Hayworth is pro-abortion?
irishfreedomfighter

will be the first real conservative from New England for a long time. He’s a great conservative.

And Nan Hayworth is pro-abortion?
http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

So is her husband.
f2000

real claer politics has moved the gray toss up area left a bit in the last week or so as well. Mid-range for turnover estimates is at 61.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html
neomom

Ellmers, while very likeable, has not run a great campaign. Pantano has a better chance.
neomom

Ellmers, while very likeable, has not run a great campaign. Pantano has a better chance.
treeofliberty

Great to see so many vulnerable Congress Critters out there, I really like what I’m hearing from Allen West and would absolutely love to see Van Tran, Cravaack and Bielat knock off Sanchez, Oberdummy, and Bawwney Fwank.

I am a little disappointed to see Rasmussen latest poll in the CT Senate race with McMahon down 13…always thought Blumy’s idiotic response to a pretty basic “How do you create a job?” question during the debate would bury him or at least make the race tight.

But I am growing more and more optimistic that we’ll be in the 60+ range in the House. Can’t wait!
mark1957

This weekend for Keith Fimian, we must unseat Gerry Connolly. This is a must win seat, then again, aren’t they all.
Spartan4Life

The following six races were moved from Toss Up to Lean R:

NY23(thanks to Doug Hoffman for stepping aside)
SC5(see ya’ Spratt)
CA11
FL22(Hello Allen West!)
OH18
IN9(Baron “This is my town hall meeting!” Hill)
irishfreedomfighter

I won’t be donating to her then.
irishfreedomfighter

I won’t be donating to her then.
BA Cyclone

In a poll commissioned by the NRCC, 3M is leading Loebsack 45-44. The race polled 40-41 a month ago – the seat has only been held by the D’s since the D-wave of 2006. The linked article also notes that the DCCC is jumping in to firewall this district.

I’m a big fan of Lange in IA-03 too, but sadly I think his race against Braley seems tougher.

I am hoping some way we can flip 2 of the 3 blue seats to red this fall, at least. We are potentially slated to lose one CD to re-districting, and although our system for redraw is “non-partisan” it’d sure be helpful to have 4 red CDs, plus have the governor and potentially one house of the state legislature also flip to red, as is projected.
BA Cyclone

In a poll commissioned by the NRCC, 3M is leading Loebsack 45-44. The race polled 40-41 a month ago – the seat has only been held by the D’s since the D-wave of 2006. The linked article also notes that the DCCC is jumping in to firewall this district.

I’m a big fan of Lange in IA-03 too, but sadly I think his race against Braley seems tougher.

I am hoping some way we can flip 2 of the 3 blue seats to red this fall, at least. We are potentially slated to lose one CD to re-districting, and although our system for redraw is “non-partisan” it’d sure be helpful to have 4 red CDs, plus have the governor and potentially one house of the state legislature also flip to red, as is projected.
swami7774

Someone other than I mentioned Jeff Perry on this site.
He’s in a very tough, nasty, filthy race here in the 10th. His Democrat opponent has run his entire post-primary campaign on negative attacks against Perry. Jeff has tried to continue his formula of past successes: nothing but positive campaigning on HIS ideas. Hopefully it will carry the day.
Today the Globe released a poll showing a very weird breakdown:
Keating(D)37
PerryR) 33
Undecided 23

I find the 23% number very strange. Then again, the source of the poll is the same source that told us Marsha Coakley was up 15 over Scott Brown 9 days before the January special election.

Help Jeff knock the negative attacks down the Dems’ throats!

Jeffperryforcongress.com
IJB
zipbags

I knew it would be tough for McMahon. But, I am shocked she is down by double digits. Especially with all of these lies Blums been caught on…Especially, the Countrywide issue.

It’s like Brown in California. I understand people are pissed that Whitman is using all of that money. But, with the financial situation of that state..How can Brown be the answer???
My only hope there is that the Dems see that Brown is leading by so much they don’t feel an urgency to vote and Whitman/Fiorina wins.
snopercod

I just sent her a little money. She’s having a “money bomb” today.
IJB

I went over the current 2010 registration figures for the states over the weekend, and CT has an almost 2-to-1 (37% to 20%) Dem voter registration edge – to put that in perspective, that’s a greater pro-D registration ratio than either CA or NJ.

Also, I think CT is one of only a few (maybe the *only*) state where the Dem registration edge has *widened* since 2010 (I think I read that in Nate Silver’s recent blog post at 538…).

Anyway, CT is a very, *very* tough state for us to play in – it’s a testament to how big a ‘wave’ year this is that the GOP is even ‘in play’ in 2-3 of CT’s House seats.

But I think the Dem edge in CT is just too tough for McMahon and Foley to overcome…
zipbags

Love the fact that West is in that group. Hoping that in my district(NJ-6) Little can pull off the upset.
IJB
eburke

will be mailing invites to Alan West and Tim Scott (and hopefully Ryan Frazier in CO)?

Not to mention any of the other A-A candidates we have who are running in heavily D districts. (If Michael Faulkner takes out Charlie Rangel, I’m gonna think I died and went to heaven)
eburke

having hit 12K out of their 50K 10-day target in just 2 days.

http://demmerforcongress.com/Welcome.aspx

Check out a review of the race here:

http://www.redstate.com/eburke/2010/10/22/the-incoming-wave-must-take-out-a-walz-mn-cd1/
earlgrey

and associating republicans with the fraud from the financial meltdown? Otherwise, I can’t see it. I think McMahon is awesome and still held out hope for her until today.
distantvoter

consider choosing a race in a state where the polls close early. If enough of those races go our way, it may have a small impact on turnout in other races — and a small impact could swing a close race our direction.

The first polls to close are in Indiana and Kentucky, then in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia.

Starting with the tossups above and working down, that would include GA-8, SC-5, IN-9, FL-22, KY-6, GA-2, IN-2, VA-9, and VA-11.

This was discussed by the enemy today.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/25/5347096-first-thoughts-how-to-spot-a-gop-wave

They mentioned several of these races, and said that if KY-6 could indicate a “tidal wave” if we win it or are even close. So maybe that’s one of the best places to help out, because it’s one of the few districts that the polls close at 6:00 EDT, and there are going to be some very long faces if they have to announce that one as a Republican pickup.

So maybe we should “help them spot a tidal wave”.
irishfreedomfighter

is not as liberal as CA. McMahon is losing women voters in a landslide because WWE is very bad family material. Also, the news media here is compeltely ignoring Blumy and going after McMahon on the wrestling issue over and over again, and it’s starting to take a toll, as I said, especially with middle-aged women. If we had run a better candidate (Chris Coutu) we would have won this race.

Btw, Governor Rell won her only election in a landslide, 63% of the vote. She’s not a very good Republican, but I think that shows that the GOP can do well here with a likeable candidate. And 4 of our house races are in play with enough money.
irishfreedomfighter

is not as liberal as CA. McMahon is losing women voters in a landslide because WWE is very bad family material. Also, the news media here is compeltely ignoring Blumy and going after McMahon on the wrestling issue over and over again, and it’s starting to take a toll, as I said, especially with middle-aged women. If we had run a better candidate (Chris Coutu) we would have won this race.

Btw, Governor Rell won her only election in a landslide, 63% of the vote. She’s not a very good Republican, but I think that shows that the GOP can do well here with a likeable candidate. And 4 of our house races are in play with enough money.
Coop

I have no connections to any campaigns, but I can tell you that the campaigns are not acting like either the Senate or Gov races are foregone conclusions. The DSCC is still advertising here! Tell me they wouldn’t prefer to be spending money elsewhere. John Larson (CT-01) is running ads constantly, and his district is D+13. GOPers have legitimate shots of winning seats in CT-04 and CT-05. And CT as a state is rated D+7 by Cook’s PVI.

I think Malloy and “Sue ‘em all” Blumenthal are still the frontrunners, but not by double digits.
Coop

IA-03 has Dem Boswell running against Zaun

With the GOP running away with the governor’s race, don’t be surprised if the Republicans end up winning all three of these House races (IA-01, -02, -03). IA-01 is actually two points friendlier to GOPers than IA-02 (D+5 vs. D+7). IA-03 is only D+1.
irishfreedomfighter

else besides me mentioned him. Keating is a slimeball in the extreme.

The scandal is so overblown and distorted. It’s obvious that the Globe and others just don’t want a conservative elected, and so they are trying to take him out by any means necessary. Disgusting.

And that poll seems strange to me. Barely a week left, and a quarter of all voters are undecided? I don’t think that is possible.

Perry2010
irishfreedomfighter

else besides me mentioned him. Keating is a slimeball in the extreme.

The scandal is so overblown and distorted. It’s obvious that the Globe and others just don’t want a conservative elected, and so they are trying to take him out by any means necessary. Disgusting.

And that poll seems strange to me. Barely a week left, and a quarter of all voters are undecided? I don’t think that is possible.

Perry2010
Coop

VA-09 and VA-11 are the tougher of the four to win. Republicans are in very good position to win VA-02 and VA-05.
DefendUSA

Vote for this guy!!
http://www.mikebeezley.com/index.html
distantvoter

Erick recommended starting with the tossups and work your way down, and in general, I think he’s right. I think VA-2 and VA-5 are already won. If we get 9 or 11, we’re looking at gaining 70 seats — or more.
zipbags

Any chance of Ellison in Minnesota losing?
BA Cyclone

My head must have gotten ahead of my keyboard.

These 3 districts are certainly in play and no reason to believe we can’t flip them all – other than pure inertia. That is the part that scares me, especially with IA-03. Boswell has laid a campaign of personal destruction on Zaun and won’t dare talk about anything but Zaun’s personal life, scare tactics, etc even though he’s been in Washington since 1996. I hope voters are smarter than that.

As far as I have seen IA-01 has polled the least favorably toward the R candidate but I suspect it can only be due to name I.D. This week will be huge for Lange, I suspect.

As far as the Gov race, I sure hope there are huge coattails here – and I like the late press that (real or not) has the race supposedly tightening. I fear more that “conservative” voters see an easy win for Branstad and neglect voting altogether. I think if we can truly get a big R wave, everything is on the table…but we have to bring it home.
BA Cyclone

My head must have gotten ahead of my keyboard.

These 3 districts are certainly in play and no reason to believe we can’t flip them all – other than pure inertia. That is the part that scares me, especially with IA-03. Boswell has laid a campaign of personal destruction on Zaun and won’t dare talk about anything but Zaun’s personal life, scare tactics, etc even though he’s been in Washington since 1996. I hope voters are smarter than that.

As far as I have seen IA-01 has polled the least favorably toward the R candidate but I suspect it can only be due to name I.D. This week will be huge for Lange, I suspect.

As far as the Gov race, I sure hope there are huge coattails here – and I like the late press that (real or not) has the race supposedly tightening. I fear more that “conservative” voters see an easy win for Branstad and neglect voting altogether. I think if we can truly get a big R wave, everything is on the table…but we have to bring it home.
Dan McLaughlin

Just made what are probably my last two donations of the cycle, to Kristi Noem & Sam Caliguri.
http://wadingacross.wordpress.com logus

My wife will be making calls for Hamlin (MO-1), but I don’t see her having a snowball’s chance.

I don’t think MO-3 is going to break for Martin. I just don’t see the numbers, no matter how much the local Tea Party has been pushing for him. I could be wrong, and if I am it’ll be tight. That said, Russ won’t get a landslide.

MO-4 is seen as a toss-up, but I think it could well go for Hartzler. Everything seems to be leaning that way, the ground was effectively already tilled so to speak even before Obama was elected. That said, whether Skelton holds on or Hartzler wins, the scuttlebutt is that the MO – 4 district will be erased within the next year due to realignment from Census results. In other words, the race in that district will only count as a notch in the belt in the political tug of war. Which ever state(s) have increased in population over the last ten years, they’re the ones to focus on as far as the House of Representatives.

Has anyone on Redstate looked into how the census reapportionment is going to affect the Congressional makeup, or are y’all waiting until after the election?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42741.html#ixzz10gkSQhlL
IJB

…To showing a “huge” wave early – if we can win all three of these (plus the “leaners” – IN-08 & IN-09), it would be HUGE.

KY-03 would actually the best win of all three because it’s basically not on *anyone’s* radar, really.

So, if you’re going to give anywhere, I’d start with those three districts.
graciegirl

Down here in little town Texas we just got a call from a gentleman who wants to give to EVERY conservative House and Senate race outside of Texas, including links…assume he has already given here.

I mention this not only because it was SO COOL to get such a call! but how helpful Club for Growth was. I had just read this diary so called them to help me figure out how to direct this man’s donations.

They reminded me that campaign limit, 45,600 covers a TWO year period of 09 and 10 and that it has dropped after primary season to 2400 per person. GRRRR! They can help him calculate how much he has given this cycle so he will not break the law as well as point him to the most viable candidates in the Senate too. And being a non-profit all the money goes to the candidate.

For people who have reached their limit they have Club for Growth Action which is unlimited and for buying TV ads. They are concentrating right now in PA. CO and AK….hummm just who Erick told me to give to! I guess most of you already know this but just in case….well, we do have a lot of readers!
swami7774

Do you live in MA-10?
irishfreedomfighter

I used to go to school up there, and I lived with friends/family in Quincy for the two years I spent there. So I do have quite a bit of emotional attachment to this race, as well as RI-1 and my current district. Also, I’ve been a fan of Perry’s for a while, as he sort of became somewhat of a hero to we conservatives who generally had to settle for less than stellar candidates.

Unfortunately, now I’m stuck in CT-2. The Republican running against my rep is a nice woman, but she’s not a strong challenger.

Good luck taking out Keating. And btw, I love the environmentalist quote. I’m currently going to college, and in a really nutty enironmentalist class. You never quite realize how far the environmentalists feminist liberals are willing to go until you spend time with them. It’s a crazy world.
irishfreedomfighter

I used to go to school up there, and I lived with friends/family in Quincy for the two years I spent there. So I do have quite a bit of emotional attachment to this race, as well as RI-1 and my current district. Also, I’ve been a fan of Perry’s for a while, as he sort of became somewhat of a hero to we conservatives who generally had to settle for less than stellar candidates.

Unfortunately, now I’m stuck in CT-2. The Republican running against my rep is a nice woman, but she’s not a strong challenger.

Good luck taking out Keating. And btw, I love the environmentalist quote. I’m currently going to college, and in a really nutty enironmentalist class. You never quite realize how far the environmentalists feminist liberals are willing to go until you spend time with them. It’s a crazy world.
ccdemuth

Incumbent Congressman Jim Himes is for the same type of command-and-control policies that have consistently led to low growth and high structural unemployment in Eastern Europe in the twentieth century and in Western Europe today: his only problem with pork-barrel stimulus is that there has not been enough of it. His only concern with the healthcare bill is that it did not go far enough. He voted to adjourn congress without addressing January?s massive tax hikes.

The incumbent is for unlimited government. On his watch, he voted for a government that increased borrowing by a trillion dollars a year. His answer is always the same: more government. More taxes, more spending, more job-killing regulation.

Challenger Dan Debicella believes that there is a better way: he is for policies conducive to economic growth such as replacing the pork-barrel stimulus with a payroll tax cut. He opposes all tax increases and intrusive regulation that stifles job creation.

Dan is for a constitutional, limited government. He would cap the size of the federal government at 20% of our gross domestic product. He would force politicians to make trade-offs between competing priorities instead of always growing the size government. He would reduce the number of government employees.

If Dan Debicella shares your beliefs and you want to help him advance those beliefs in congress, then you can do so here: http://www.40seats.com/ct4 . Both sides should be able to agree that your choice is clear and it is important. What kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to continue down the current direction or do we think that there is a better way?

RS

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