It’s just staggering how many House take-over opportunities the GOP has this cycle. And the Democrats for their part have only about a half dozen, at best. I think several of those Lean D races are more likely Toss-ups, but at this point the important thing is they’re all winnable if we donate our time and money, vote next Tuesday, and insist that like-minded family and friends do the same.

Sanford Bishop on that list He may be the congressman from my district, but he is [i]not[/i] our representative…

will be the first real conservative from New England for a long time. He’s a great conservative.

And Nan Hayworth is pro-abortion?

will be the first real conservative from New England for a long time. He’s a great conservative.

And Nan Hayworth is pro-abortion?

real claer politics has moved the gray toss up area left a bit in the last week or so as well. Mid-range for turnover estimates is at 61.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

Ellmers, while very likeable, has not run a great campaign. Pantano has a better chance.

Ellmers, while very likeable, has not run a great campaign. Pantano has a better chance.

Great to see so many vulnerable Congress Critters out there, I really like what I’m hearing from Allen West and would absolutely love to see Van Tran, Cravaack and Bielat knock off Sanchez, Oberdummy, and Bawwney Fwank.

I am a little disappointed to see Rasmussen latest poll in the CT Senate race with McMahon down 13…always thought Blumy’s idiotic response to a pretty basic “How do you create a job?” question during the debate would bury him or at least make the race tight.

But I am growing more and more optimistic that we’ll be in the 60+ range in the House. Can’t wait!

This weekend for Keith Fimian, we must unseat Gerry Connolly. This is a must win seat, then again, aren’t they all.

The following six races were moved from Toss Up to Lean R:

NY23(thanks to Doug Hoffman for stepping aside)
SC5(see ya’ Spratt)
CA11
FL22(Hello Allen West!)
OH18
IN9(Baron “This is my town hall meeting!” Hill)

In a poll commissioned by the NRCC, 3M is leading Loebsack 45-44. The race polled 40-41 a month ago – the seat has only been held by the D’s since the D-wave of 2006. The linked article also notes that the DCCC is jumping in to firewall this district.

I’m a big fan of Lange in IA-03 too, but sadly I think his race against Braley seems tougher.

I am hoping some way we can flip 2 of the 3 blue seats to red this fall, at least. We are potentially slated to lose one CD to re-districting, and although our system for redraw is “non-partisan” it’d sure be helpful to have 4 red CDs, plus have the governor and potentially one house of the state legislature also flip to red, as is projected.

In a poll commissioned by the NRCC, 3M is leading Loebsack 45-44. The race polled 40-41 a month ago – the seat has only been held by the D’s since the D-wave of 2006. The linked article also notes that the DCCC is jumping in to firewall this district.

I’m a big fan of Lange in IA-03 too, but sadly I think his race against Braley seems tougher.

I am hoping some way we can flip 2 of the 3 blue seats to red this fall, at least. We are potentially slated to lose one CD to re-districting, and although our system for redraw is “non-partisan” it’d sure be helpful to have 4 red CDs, plus have the governor and potentially one house of the state legislature also flip to red, as is projected.

Someone other than I mentioned Jeff Perry on this site.
He’s in a very tough, nasty, filthy race here in the 10th. His Democrat opponent has run his entire post-primary campaign on negative attacks against Perry. Jeff has tried to continue his formula of past successes: nothing but positive campaigning on HIS ideas. Hopefully it will carry the day.
Today the Globe released a poll showing a very weird breakdown:
Keating(D)37
PerryR) 33
Undecided 23

I find the 23% number very strange. Then again, the source of the poll is the same source that told us Marsha Coakley was up 15 over Scott Brown 9 days before the January special election.

Help Jeff knock the negative attacks down the Dems’ throats!

Jeffperryforcongress.com

I just sent her a little money. She’s having a “money bomb” today.

having hit 12K out of their 50K 10-day target in just 2 days.

http://demmerforcongress.com/Welcome.aspx

Check out a review of the race here:

http://www.redstate.com/eburke/2010/10/22/the-incoming-wave-must-take-out-a-walz-mn-cd1/

consider choosing a race in a state where the polls close early. If enough of those races go our way, it may have a small impact on turnout in other races — and a small impact could swing a close race our direction.

The first polls to close are in Indiana and Kentucky, then in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia.

Starting with the tossups above and working down, that would include GA-8, SC-5, IN-9, FL-22, KY-6, GA-2, IN-2, VA-9, and VA-11.

This was discussed by the enemy today.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/25/5347096-first-thoughts-how-to-spot-a-gop-wave

They mentioned several of these races, and said that if KY-6 could indicate a “tidal wave” if we win it or are even close. So maybe that’s one of the best places to help out, because it’s one of the few districts that the polls close at 6:00 EDT, and there are going to be some very long faces if they have to announce that one as a Republican pickup.

So maybe we should “help them spot a tidal wave”.

Vote for this guy!!
http://www.mikebeezley.com/index.html

Any chance of Ellison in Minnesota losing?

Just made what are probably my last two donations of the cycle, to Kristi Noem & Sam Caliguri.

My wife will be making calls for Hamlin (MO-1), but I don’t see her having a snowball’s chance.

I don’t think MO-3 is going to break for Martin. I just don’t see the numbers, no matter how much the local Tea Party has been pushing for him. I could be wrong, and if I am it’ll be tight. That said, Russ won’t get a landslide.

MO-4 is seen as a toss-up, but I think it could well go for Hartzler. Everything seems to be leaning that way, the ground was effectively already tilled so to speak even before Obama was elected. That said, whether Skelton holds on or Hartzler wins, the scuttlebutt is that the MO – 4 district will be erased within the next year due to realignment from Census results. In other words, the race in that district will only count as a notch in the belt in the political tug of war. Which ever state(s) have increased in population over the last ten years, they’re the ones to focus on as far as the House of Representatives.

Has anyone on Redstate looked into how the census reapportionment is going to affect the Congressional makeup, or are y’all waiting until after the election?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42741.html#ixzz10gkSQhlL

Down here in little town Texas we just got a call from a gentleman who wants to give to EVERY conservative House and Senate race outside of Texas, including links…assume he has already given here.

I mention this not only because it was SO COOL to get such a call! but how helpful Club for Growth was. I had just read this diary so called them to help me figure out how to direct this man’s donations.

They reminded me that campaign limit, 45,600 covers a TWO year period of 09 and 10 and that it has dropped after primary season to 2400 per person. GRRRR! They can help him calculate how much he has given this cycle so he will not break the law as well as point him to the most viable candidates in the Senate too. And being a non-profit all the money goes to the candidate.

For people who have reached their limit they have Club for Growth Action which is unlimited and for buying TV ads. They are concentrating right now in PA. CO and AK….hummm just who Erick told me to give to! I guess most of you already know this but just in case….well, we do have a lot of readers!

Incumbent Congressman Jim Himes is for the same type of command-and-control policies that have consistently led to low growth and high structural unemployment in Eastern Europe in the twentieth century and in Western Europe today: his only problem with pork-barrel stimulus is that there has not been enough of it. His only concern with the healthcare bill is that it did not go far enough. He voted to adjourn congress without addressing January’s massive tax hikes.

The incumbent is for unlimited government. On his watch, he voted for a government that increased borrowing by a trillion dollars a year. His answer is always the same: more government. More taxes, more spending, more job-killing regulation.

Challenger Dan Debicella believes that there is a better way: he is for policies conducive to economic growth such as replacing the pork-barrel stimulus with a payroll tax cut. He opposes all tax increases and intrusive regulation that stifles job creation.

Dan is for a constitutional, limited government. He would cap the size of the federal government at 20% of our gross domestic product. He would force politicians to make trade-offs between competing priorities instead of always growing the size government. He would reduce the number of government employees.

If Dan Debicella shares your beliefs and you want to help him advance those beliefs in congress, then you can do so here: http://www.40seats.com/ct4 . Both sides should be able to agree that your choice is clear and it is important. What kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to continue down the current direction or do we think that there is a better way?