[UPDATE:] John Thune’s office is denying the report and says Thune supports the earmarks moratorium. That’s good news, but then we’re left wondering why multiple Senators and the campaigns of two Senators-Elect would be under the distinct impression that John Thune was directly soliciting their opposition to the moratorium. It is a secret ballot after all.
—————–
Sources in the United States Senate tell me John Thune has thrown in the towel on a 2012 run for President.
How do they know?
Thune is whipping votes for Mitch McConnell in order to defeat the Coburn-DeMint earmarks moratorium. There is no way Thune would so blatantly defy the grassroots of the GOP, the tea party movement, and virtually every major conservative group in Washington if he had any interest in being President in 2012.
Well, with Thune’s Presidential political suicide that makes the 2012 list shorter by one.
By the way, Orrin Hatch looks like he’ll be retiring. In addition to recently replacing his Chief of Staff, Hatch has come out against the earmarks moratorium making the odds increasingly likely that he won’t be back in 2012.
He’ll either be retired or beaten in a GOP primary by Utah tea party activists — just like they did to Bob Bennett.
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Rick Perry
Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 1:25PM EDT (link)If Rick Perry runs, let me be the first to volunteer. Hands down he beats the entire Republican field under discussion and can actually win the general.
“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson
Eyes on the Prize: the Electoral College in 2012
cactusjack Wednesday, November 10th at 6:20PM EDT (link)Rick Perry says he is not interested in being President. Yet whenever he walks into a room that metallic, clanking sound you hear behind him is the sound of 38 signed and delivered, red Electoral College votes following him – no, throw in OK, LA and a chunk of the South where are we now – 100?! electoral college votes. (Palin is great but she doesnt have the EC cred) And fistfulls of ca$h R admirers all over the US will throw at him should he ask. And he smiles with a smile for a tested, prosperous big state economy in his pocket that makes the 0 deathly afraid to debate him, to challenge him, *afraid to even look at him in the eye and shake his hand at the airport in Austin recently.* (!!) Perry is wily. Perry knows all the above. Is he running? Does he want to? Is he waiting, watching? Who knows? But he is right now a – the – constructive candidate, a de facto candidate. He’s the only one who has the stuff at this point to get in the ring. He will have to make it much more clear than he has, that he is definitely not running, in order to make it clear he really is not running. Maybe he could do that……on his current book tour *around the country* promoting his new book (!)
Dems wooing Snowe & Murky?
chihank Wednesday, November 10th at 1:32PM EDT (link)Fearing a Tea Party primary challenge, there are rumors that Snowe might run as an Independent in 2012. The Dems think they can have votes of Murky and Snowe on some important issues.
I think going forward, we need to have “Sore Loser Laws” which prevent primary losers from running in the general election.
That would be un-democratic
whats_up Wednesday, November 10th at 3:11PM EDT (link)as well as Unamerican.
G'bye
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 3:20PM EDT (link)I love it when you guys slip through the cracks but then expose yourself to the banning you deserved all along.
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He does have a point, though.
juumanistra (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 3:46PM EDT (link)Presumably the ban arose from something beyond the content of his sentiment, yes? As a blanket prohibition on losers of party primaries running in the general election, ground exclusively in the use of their loss of as a disqualifier from being included on the ballot, does raise serious state and federal constitutional questions. Tactless and moby-ish as his phraseology was, I should hope voicing skepticism about such this kind of thing doesn’t violate the site’s TOS.
…as if it does, I’ve just signed my own death (ban?) warrant. But I can enjoy the irony of that.
What questions are those?
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 5:07PM EDT (link)Come on. What Constitutional questions are raised?
Hmm?
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The precise nature of any question would depend upon the content of a proposed sore loser statute.
juumanistra (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 8:13PM EDT (link)Though assuming you’ve got a pedestrian lawyer filling the litigation shotgun? I can see 5th Amendment Due Process Clause, 14th Amendment Due Process Clause, Equal Protection Clause, and Republican Government Clause challenges being alleged. If you’ve got someone resourceful and who wants to pick a fight, you’ve also got 9th and 10th Amendment claims lying around, with the bonus of a food fight over whether those particular ink blots are incorporated. If one gets really creative, it could be argued that First Amendment political speech rights are being infringed upon, as your ability engage in political speech via participation in elected office is being curtailed for things which you said. (I.E. said things that were said during your losing primary bid. A rather spurious argument, to be sure, but since when has that stopped the appellate bench?) Plus whatever other state constitutional provisions may or may provide grounds for raising a stink.
After this election cycle, the idea of sore loser statutes are a feel good exercise that’s ultimately futile. It’s something that folks can disagree about, which I presume you do, Neil. I was just curious if what’s_up got the banhammer dropped on him for the actual disagreement or the fact that he acted like a prick. I suspect it’s the latter, though sought confirmation, for if were the former, it’d be a worrisome development.
Those aren't questions
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 9:00PM EDT (link)Just listing parts of the Constitution doesn’t explain how they would be violated.
But as you point out, the statutes vary, so I guess without a concrete situation we’re at an impasse.
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My assumptions have made a...DNC mascot of me.
juumanistra (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 11:28PM EDT (link)I had assumed that a sore loser statute’s operative text would something like the following:
“Any person who has participated in a political party’s primary election, and failed to win that party’s nomination, shall not appear on the ballot for the general election for any elected office in which he or she ran for in a political party’s primary election.”
Such statutory language, I think, could be argued to deprive primary losers of valid liberty interests, in contravention of Due Process Clause of either the Fifth or Fourteenth Amendment. It is not a particularly persuasive argument, from my vantage point, but most arguments in favor of substantive due process underwhelm me while impressing the courts well enough to be read into the constitutional canon. I think a claim ground in the Equal Protection Clause would fare better: The idea of the draft language above surviving the rational basis test seems implausible, as it is hard to imagine any kind of rational government interest it could tie to. (Though I would love to be a fly on the wall when trying to come up with one.) And Article IV’s Republican Government Clause is, certainly, a rather large stretch: I fail to see how banning primary candidates from running in the general for the same office deprives a state of a republican form of government, but we live with enough other constitutional oddities that, while implausible, someone could at least try to make the argument with a straight face.
I was musing aloud, as much to myself as you, about the Ninth, Tenth, and First Amendment. Which was a mistake, given that they’re the result more of my legal mind’s seeing a shiny widget which it wants to gaze at. Rather than the result of sober thought and analysis.
Florida and Louisiana
Cogburn (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 9:25PM EDT (link)Election laws require anyone wanting to tun for federal office to qualify at the same time. Independents qualify at the same time as candidates running as Republicans or Democrats. Party primaries are held a month before the general election. This is why Charlie Christ qualified as an independent rather than risk losing to Rubio in the Republican primary. He would have only been able to run as a write in candidate a la Mercowskie. In LA, there is no way to vote for a write-in candidate.
Wow, the ratio of words to coherent argument in your comment is close to infinity
JSobieski (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 9:51PM EDT (link)Can you even formulate a single argument? Try shorter sentences with a clear point.
Did you know that China has been losing manufacturing jobs since 1995? For the specific data, see Table 1 in the following link: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/07/art2full.pdf
PS
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 5:08PM EDT (link)You probably owe chihank an apology for backing the unamerican crack thrown at him.
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Now where did I back such a--...oh.
juumanistra (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 8:19PM EDT (link)Suppose I did implicitly support that un-American crack with a blanket reference to “sentiment”, didn’t I? Was mainly going for the former undemocratic complaint and not its latterly component of un-American-ism. Mea culpa, chihank. A little more specific parsing on my part of the complaints of obnoxious twats is required in the future.
At least before I stick my neck out again for any of them, at any rate.
support Joe
joecollins (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 4:11PM EDT (link)The current Sore Loser trend is all the more reason we should send a few dollars to Joe Miller. He needs the money to buy professional help to fend off the current sore loser and her behind-the-scenes liberal backers. Send Joe some $$$.
It didn't stop Crist
Darin_H (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 9:30PM EDT (link)Had Charlie remained a Republican for the primary and lost, it would have been too late to file to run as an Indy here in FL, so he dropped out and went anyways.
Yeah, it would have stopped Murky, maybe, but probably not, she would have just pulled a Crist and we’d be in the same spot anyways.
A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls
great news...
philhoganjr (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 1:44PM EDT (link)thune is a ken doll with no leadership abilities.
and hatch is a clubby creature of the establishment.
at least the latter will save us from the “gop purges its ranks” media narrative.
Secret Vote
vamoose Wednesday, November 10th at 1:47PM EDT (link)What steams me about the earmark battle is that it’s a secret vote. I do not think there would be much support for earmarks if the entire GOP senate delegation had to stand up and be counted.
Easy way to find out which Senators support earmarks.
barleycorn (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 2:00PM EDT (link)If every Senator who supports the earmarks ban were to publicly announce as much, then guess who’s left?
Oh my my...... Thune and Hatch
fpete13527 (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 1:58PM EDT (link)I remember all the attacks on questioning these guys as being RINOs and porkers.
I guess it isnt so preposterous now and I guess the true sneaky progressive slime that they are is coming out real clear….as it is with many other GOP Senators
they still don't get it
elizabeth bennet Wednesday, November 10th at 2:46PM EDT (link)They. Still. Do. Not. Get. It. But they will. Might take us another 10 years, but they are definitely gonna get the message.
Only if we stay awake this time, Elizabeth.
acat (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 2:53PM EDT (link)Too many fell asleep after Reagan.
Too many fell asleep during the confrontation with Clinton.
We need to stay awake this time…
Mew
——

Caveat Suffragator
Thune and Hatch
hoosierdoug Wednesday, November 10th at 3:14PM EDT (link)That is really disappointing to hear about Senator Thune. I can’t say I’m as surprised by Senator Hatch.
There's never been a question about Hatch the last 3 years.
cactusjack Wednesday, November 10th at 6:01PM EDT (link)THe only question was whether – politically speaking – to run in to his office in the middle of the daytime a do a “Trotsky”-style abrupt end of his political career, or, lead him gently by the hand over the hill to pastures in the Wasatch. I vote for the latter in recognition of the grueling scraps in the judiciary committee he fought against Kennedy, Biden and Leahy to – successfully – get Thomas on the SCOTUS and keep Oliver North out of jail. He had has better days but yes time now to go.
Heh. Explains why we haven't seen any "Thune-for-POTUS" diaries recently...
acat (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 3:18PM EDT (link)This is the last one I recall seeing… glad to see this nonsense is over.
http://www.redstate.com/brentteichman/2010/05/11/john-thune-the-next-american-president/
Mew
——

Caveat Suffragator
Thune's always been a porker
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 3:21PM EDT (link)He ran on pork.
It’s too bad we didn’t primary him this year.
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No Brainer
youngsterz Wednesday, November 10th at 3:49PM EDT (link)Any GOP member of congress must see the current climate and get behind an earmark moratorium for at least the next year, if not two. It’s a no brainer.
However, we will see who exactly has the brains to recognize this, and who doesn’t. Those who vote against any moratorium will show that they have no brains, and need to be retired/replaced/voted out. There is no question that McConnell is a complete political power whore, and the American electorate will keep watching to see how the other ones perform.
I became a Utah delegate with the specific intent of removing Bob Bennett and my #2 reason for that (after #1 being how in bed he was with Big Finance) was his continued votes against any sort of earmark reform.
I have wondered where Orrin Hatch stood on this, because he is teetering on the edge of the abyss, where he could go the way of Bennett, or try and save his hide by becoming the most conservative Senator, as he was jokingly referred to on a number of occasions after the tsunami last week.
If he had half a brain at all, he would announce his retirement and go out on top. I think he will take the other route: Remain arrogant and power punch drunk, take the “you can’t live without me” line, and end up being embarassed by defeat. If you insist on that, Mr. Hatch, my Utah independent conservative friends and I would be happy to help you on your way.
This will be interesting. Hatch is a big favorite of the Club for Growth
red_oakster (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 5:26PM EDT (link)There could be an interesting split among conservative groups. Also, the anti-Hatch side will need to keep him below 40% at the convention to prevent him from running in the primary, where he would be the favorite.
As for Thune, the guy always has been a porker. I expect him to get as far as the Iowa state fair next summer.
Hatch has been there too long
kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 5:58PM EDT (link)He started out good, but it happens to all of them after a while, they start to think like the Beltway,They start to think of themselves as owning their seat. They forget what it is like to be a middle class person or run a small business.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
Earmark reference data re Hatch & Thune & Erick E. on "Project Coup" Strategy
ColdWarrior (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 4:10PM EDT (link)For reference, how the Utah grass roots conservatives took out Utah incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Bennett:
http://www.redstate.com/coldwarrior/2010/05/08/2101-of-3500-of-75000-denied-bob-bennett/
For reference, Citizens Against Government Waste has compiled into a database information about earmarks and has the information in a variety of formats and summaries, including by individual member of congress:
http://www.cagw.org/reports/pig-book/2010/
According to the 2010 database, Hatch sponsored or co-sponsored 85 earmarks for a total of $148,375,000.
Thune sponsored or co-sponsored 48 earmarks total of $86,211,600
Those Republicans who don’t seem to “get it” on earmarks probably have not seen any great increase, back in their home states or districts, in participation by registered Republican in the Party itself as precinct committeemen; therefore, they don’t see any real reason to fear a primary challenge. Hatch ought to know better, based on the experience of Bob Bennett.
I believe if conservatives would, by the tens of thousands, flock into their local GOP committee meetings, that news would filter up (or down, depending upon your perspective) to the congresscritters and they would change their behavior, because such a surge by conservatives into the Party ranks would cause them to pause and think whether maybe, just maybe, they would be facing a challenge from the right in their upcoming 2012 primary election.
At the 2009 RightOnline conference, right after the first Redstate gathering, I was heartened when Erick Erickson outlined the Neighborhood Precinct Committeeman Strategy (which he termed “Project Coup”) to the crowd. Here’s the video. Watch the whole thing if you can, but the Strategy discussion begins at the 3:00 mark.
For Liberty,
ColdWarrior, PC
precinct committeeman
———–
American first, conservative second, Republican precinct committeeman BY NECESSITY!
Where it all started.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
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The Concord Project: Fighting for Freedom in the Fall
In 2012, will YOU become a “voting member” of the Republican Party in your precinct?
Where it all started. Twitter @kaltkrieger
Unified Patriots.
Learn how to GOTV at The Concord Project and at Procinct and
Hatch should have enough sense to retire
itsjoanne Wednesday, November 10th at 4:35PM EDT (link)He will be primaried otherwise and lose. Jason Chafez would make a great senator.
Hey Beltway Republicans
kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 5:56PM EDT (link)We’re making a list,
checking it again
gonna find out who needs to get tossed
out on their can
Fiscal conservatives are coming to your party!
We know when you’ve been a spender
we know when you mocked and sneered
We know who needs to get put down
and get a kick in the rear!
Ok, not much of a rhyme, but you get the picture.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
Thune voted for TARP.
septembergurl (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 6:01PM EDT (link)In my opinion no one who voted for TARP will be on the Republican ticket in 2012.
This means the ticket will probably be a Governor (you can see this already in the preference for Palin, Romney, Huck, Christie, Barbour, Daniels, etc) and a Senator who was not yet elected in 2008 *cough Marco Rubio cough*.
What has Thune done to qualify him to run for POTUS?
Tbone (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 6:31PM EDT (link)Get elected Senator from a state with 3 electoral votes? The guy must be deluded. Palin probably spoke in front of more people the last two weeks of the election than live in SD.
The last thing we need is another pencil neck Senator to become POTUS.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Really cute...
Brent Teichman (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 9:27PM EDT (link)Well, guys…this is a really cute exercise in ripping John Thune (an electable, charismatic senator w/ a 97% conservative rating) based on a bunch of BS information provided by uncited, hearsay sources. Keep it up, and we all will be celebrating a 2nd Obama term after nominating another stellar candidate like Mitt EFFing Romney. Really awesome…
“It does not take a majority to prevail… but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” –Sam Adams
Complete non-argument
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 2:08AM EDT (link)Just proves that whipping for earmarks is indefensible, since you don’t even try to defend it.
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Show me the goods...
Brent Teichman (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 9:51AM EDT (link)Show me proof that he’s “whipping for earmarks” and I will happily scold him right here in this fine public forum. The problem is we have a bunch of people who are so hell bent on sabotaging a candidate in favor of their own that they will “report” anything without citing one verified source on the subject. As Adjoran states (below) – “it’s pretty to stab someone in the back when you don’t have to leave your prints on the dagger.” Just sayin…
“It does not take a majority to prevail… but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” –Sam Adams
"it's pretty EASY" (I meant, sorry)
Brent Teichman (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 9:53AM EDT (link)“it’s pretty EASY” (I meant, sorry)
“It does not take a majority to prevail… but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” –Sam Adams
I don't much care about earmarks. At least they're not
mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 8:58AM EDT (link)really high on my priority list. OTOH, the fact that Thune is a US Senator and has never run anything more challenging than a campaign is more than enough to disqualify him. Oh, and “charismatic”???? Call that one strike two.
Could we please have a successful governor. Somebody who’s actually run a state and has a record of accomplishment. (That rules out two former governors from 2008 tickets.)
My sources say your sources wear thongs and
Adjoran (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 2:48AM EDT (link)also support other potential candidates, but mostly support other candidates. It’s pretty easy to stab someone in the back when you don’t have to leave your prints on the dagger.
Bennett was never beaten in a primary. Tea Party activists gained control of the convention and he finished third there and wasn’t on the primary ballot. Had he been, he might have lost – or might have won.
If Hatch wants to run for reelection, you can bet his people will be working the delegates early. If he is on the ballot in a primary, beating him will be no walk in the park.
Like I told the Democrats in ’06, I remind those who think the TP will bend to their will forever: “You’ve won one in a row – don’t let it go to your head.”
Hatch Should Be Gone Regardless
videosavant Thursday, November 11th at 8:52AM EDT (link)He was one of the prime movers in ensuring that Murkowski didn’t lose seniority and committee assignments after losing the primary and then running against the party as an independent.
That puts a target on his re-election that I would be happy to punch through.