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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Stupid Party Prepares to Get Down Right Dumb

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  March 29th, 2011 at 04:45 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

While we’ve all been focused on the Administration’s schizophrenia over Libya, there is another political battle being fought in the halls of Congress over the budget.

The starting point for this is this report from Emily Miller at Human Events. The key take away is that “the Senate Republicans are preparing to tell President Obama that they want a Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) to the Constitution passed in Congress in exchange for raising the statuary debt ceiling above $14.2 trillion.”

We can now turn to my friend Dan Mitchell who explains exactly how stupid this GOP strategy is. The GOP, in exchange for increasing the debt ceiling, is not saying “give us the BBA or no debt ceiling increase.” The GOP is instead saying “give us a vote on it.”

Well, as Dan further points out, the GOP already got a vote on the BBA on March 2nd and it failed. So, the GOP is saying, “Let us lose another vote on the BBA in exchange for a debt ceiling increase or else.” Or else what?

This is stupid for a variety of reasons and Dan Mitchell sums them up pretty succinctly.

The GOP is not telling the Democrats they actually want the Balanced Budget Amendment, just a vote. This is wholly unacceptable. If Barack Obama wants to increase the debt ceiling, the GOP should go all or nothing — they must have their Balanced Budget Amendment in exchange for it. A vote is utter nonsense without a commitment from the Democrats to pass it by a two-thirds vote from both Houses.

But it gets more insane from there. Everything we feared, everything we knew would happen, is coming to fruition.

Let’s start with the contra-indicator that we are right: Fred Barnes.

Fred is the guy who coined the term “big government conservative” as a way to defend Bush’s big government agenda. I like him very much, but he has become the guy the GOP leaders go to so he can parrot their talking points with a veneer of “conservatives are okay with us.” They typically do that when they are behaving badly.

So Fred Barnes tells us not to panic because Republicans are winning the budget fight. That means precisely that the GOP is losing the budget fight.

How are we losing the budget fight? Well, for actual reporting let’s go to CNN’s Dana Bash who tells us that we are yet again at an impasse and on the verge of a government shutdown.

Why? Because the GOP is finally being forced by the base to push for actual, substantive spending cuts instead of the death by a thousand paper cuts strategy of the leadership. That necessitated the Barnes column where he advocates for the leadership’s incremental spending cuts strategy.

Luckily for us, conservatives made such a stink about the last short term CR being, in fact, the last short term CR, the GOP is now forced to be a leader. The leaders are, however, reluctant.

Look, it is very simple — demand passage of a balanced budget amendment, defund Obamacare and Planned Parenthood, and if the Democrats balk, shut the government down.

Unfortunately for you and me, the GOP leadership is scared to death of and hell bent on avoiding a government shutdown. They may have no choice, so they better get ready.

Fred Barnes’s pitch that the GOP is winning is the best indication yet that the GOP is about to lose. They are left now rolling the budget debate into the debt ceiling debate and insisting not on passage of a balanced budget amendment, but on a vote on a balanced budget amendment.

Hey, I know! Why don’t they get the Democrats to vote on defunding Obamacare too instead of, you know, actually defunding it.

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COMMENTS

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  • The_Gadfly

    what I object to is that even on that alleged strategy, the Republican leadership has engaged in pre-emptive surrender: only requiring the passage of Big 0 approved cuts, not the rest of the cuts Dems have said can’t pass under any circumstances. Given that Kabuki theater, the vote on instead of pass surrender shouldn’t surprise us.

    I guess they still didn’t hear us.

  • sowa1

    I am sick and tired of people who voted Republican governors and members of the House in to office and the minute they start to CUT things so the States and the Country can get out of debt, people start screaming NO! The Democrats put us all in DEBT worse that Britain, will not cut anything and all of you blame Repub licans for trying. GET REAL! Seniors will not lose anything even if they raise the retirement age. ( You would have to be 4 years old). Stop believing what you hear on the drive by Media. Wake up before it is too late America.

  • 20jan2013

    please grow a pair?

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    You cannot make a deal like this with the Democrats, they will screw you every time.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    You cannot make a deal like this with the Democrats, they will screw you every time.

  • http://www.riversedgealliance.org Robin Smith

    “I seem to smell the stench of appeasement in the air.”
    Margaret Thatcher

  • http://www.riversedgealliance.org Robin Smith

    “I seem to smell the stench of appeasement in the air.”
    Margaret Thatcher

  • AceInTX

    Is that “sucker” I seer stamped on your forehead permanent?

    Republicans swept the 2010 elections from top to bottom because Americans want them to STOP the Democrats not play games like demanding meaningless votes so they can ACT like they want cuts that they really don’t have the guts to pass!

    The first rule of compromise is to demand something in return for your capitulation…not empty votes that get you nothing but the contempt of your base, and the derisive dismissal of the broader electorate!

  • http://www.planettron.com NickDeringer

    Sad

  • fpete13527

    Boehner and Cantor need to get clear that their will be NO “future kinetic budget cut promise agreements”…..period.

    If the Dems will not agree NOW to significant cuts, then shut government down….period. The Dems are the ones who will be forcing the shutdown, not the GOP.

    And either way, there MUST be FULL defunding of Obamcare, to especially include the $103 Billion fraudulent infrastructure of Obamacare.

    And the Senate Bill that says the Dems must “promise” (duh) to cut and “promise” to not enact Obamacare for now (duh) ….is certainly not sufficient.

    GOP, you need to either cut the budget and fully defund ($103 Billion) Obamacare….or you need to plan on being cut yourselves

    I’ve heard that the Ohio and Virgina GOP Precinct Committees are very ready to fully engage in early primary campaigning …….NOT in favor of the incumbents. Excelllent.

  • http://jhowell.net jameshowell

    Future Congresses would use it as an excuse to raise taxes. I would rather see an amendment limiting spending. Let’s say to no more than 18% of the average of the previous three year’s GDP (to smooth out bumps) with NO exceptions and no waivers (even in war – make the hard decision on where to spend the money).

  • http://jhowell.net jameshowell

    Future Congresses would use it as an excuse to raise taxes. I would rather see an amendment limiting spending. Let’s say to no more than 18% of the average of the previous three year’s GDP (to smooth out bumps) with NO exceptions and no waivers (even in war – make the hard decision on where to spend the money).

  • swi2522

    the rinos are truely no different than the dems
    just try to paper over the issue and kick the can down the road while roam burns
    conservative tea party representatives we need you do not let this happen

  • http://www.voteforteri2010.com teridavisnewman

    They didn’t get the message because the worst offenders were allowed to stay, Pelosi is still there and still the leader of the Democrats in Congress and her attitude of “My way or the highway” is apparently intimidating to these gutless, spineless politicians, and no one has the stones to cross the Wicked Witch of the West. We need to send another message in 2012 and get rid of these liberals once and for all. We must get the overspending under control and start paying back the debt or we are finished as a country. We will be even worse off in 2012 than we are now and with gas at $6 (more?) plus per gallon by then, the economy will be in a shambles. The idiot Obama zombies sure got the change they voted for–they put a Communist in office that has done his level best to destroy America. I don’t know for sure if he did it out of malice or incompetence but one hopes it’s the latter. The road paved of good intentions invariably leads to one place.

  • ag8tor

    There is absolutely NO reason to make ANY kind of deal with these Dems. What do the Reps believe will be gained by this? The Dems will just try to pull some other type of political stunt to get what they want and the Reps will quietly go along wringing their hands and moaning how they tried to stop them but just couldn’t , even with a majority. Just as I feared after November, it remains business as usual no matter who’s in charge of what. We AGAIN will pay for whatever deal they come up with. Nothing will change until we throw all these lifers out and get some REAL conservatives in place. Maybe we even get some with spines. Looks like that may be too much to ask!

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    The BBA as offered by the GOP, would require a 20% of GDP cap on spending, a super-majority to raise the spending level, and a super majority to raise taxes.

  • http://jhowell.net jameshowell

    20% of the previous year’s GDP or 20% of current year projection? Projections tend to get very rosy.

    20% seems high. Does it include Social Security outlays? It should include all spending, including social security and so-called emergency spending.

  • http://jhowell.net jameshowell

    20% of the previous year’s GDP or 20% of current year projection? Projections tend to get very rosy.

    20% seems high. Does it include Social Security outlays? It should include all spending, including social security and so-called emergency spending.

  • mspector

    … unless and until they have to, and they won’t have to unless and until the House refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Period. The GOP and Tea Party have to take that step so as to force Obama’s hand. Otherwise he and the Dems will continue to play rope-a-dope and let the GOP continue to stumble around the ring. You can’t be daring if you are risk-averse.

  • http://www.liberallyconservative.com Liberally Conservative

    They should move forward again with the BBA and make it well known to the public but tie it to NO debt ceiling increase.

    The process for an amendment to the Constitution is arduous and the debt ceiling issue is NOW.

    So this amount to McConnell and his chums punting, or at best, kicking the can down the road to make it look like they’re trying to be fiscally responsible.

    This is more GOP appeasement.

  • Tbone

    She got her crap passed when 60% of the public was against it. Yep, a lot of Democrats died, but we are still stuck with the legislation and will be until the pendulum swings back to the Democrats will they will add more to it.

    All Boehner and Cantor seem to want to do is stay where Pelosi put us. This is not acceptable to me. If it is not acceptable to me, I doubt that it is acceptable to the majority of people who voted for Tea Party candidates.

    Perhaps it is time for a third party with whom the Republicans would be forced to form a coalition government. This would give the third party a lot more leverage than the 63 Republican, freshman House members have which appears to be zilch.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Rule #1 of negotiations – Get The Bird in The Hand. The only real and concrete changes would be a law, combined with House and Senate rule changes, that implement Spending Limits as Federal policy.

    “The BBA as offered by the GOP, would require a 20% of GDP cap on spending, a super-majority to raise the spending level, and a super majority to raise taxes.”

    You know, this is not such a bad set of principles … BUT WHY IS THE GOP ASKING FOR IT IN THE FORM OF AN AMENDMENT? This is not something that will ever happen, as you dont get 67 votes for the above principles.

    IF THE GOAL IS TO GET THESE POLICIES AS IMPLEMENTATIONS THEN DEMAND – IN EXCHANGE FOR A VOTE ON DEBT CEILING INCREASE – CHANGES IN HOUSE AND SENATE RULES AND A LAW ARE SUFFICIENT.

    You don’t need an amendment for the BBA. Just pass it as a law, with Congressional rules putting the teeth behind the concepts. The law would require targetting a balanced budget or requiring a super-majority (3/5ths) to override it. A Senate rule that requires a super-majority on any spending increase – that would put in place the same principles that the ‘cut-go’ rule in the House has, would be an effective and immediate good thing. So too would a rule against spending more than 20% of GDP in any budget cycle. These are good principles, but the BBA (or any constutitional amendment) is a flawed strategy since it has zero chance of getting enacted.

    A LAW PLUS SENATE/HOUSE RULE THAT DOES THE SAME THING AS THE BBA WOULD BE REAL, IMMEDIATE AND EFFECTIVE. It’s the ‘bird in the hand’. Real negotiators give away on abstractions and principles and fight to get real, concrete, realizable items.

    The House leadership and Rep Ryan know this – they are doing it already … THE “CUT-GO” IS A RULE THAT REQUIRES A SUPER-MAJORITY TO PASS ON ANY INCREASE IN SPENDING. It’s like pay-go execpt that it doesnt impact tax changes, only spending…

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_12/027329.php

    “We talked the other day about Republicans’ “Cutgo” rules. The policy allows the GOP to try to keep slashing taxes, without having to pay for them, while requiring spending cuts to pay for new or expanded programs.”

    NOTE THAT THESE RULES ARE IN PLACE IN THE HOUSE. Putting more rules in the House and the Senate will
    - A spending limitation Rule: No spending above 18% of GDP without a supermajority; No spending increases without corresponding cuts; No tax increases without supermajority; No

    This is why Sen Reid wont agree to it. Which means if the GOP demands it, no agreement and no debt ceiling increase a crisis will ensue. Getting a BBA vote is a showboat meaningless token.
    Getting a rule that forces every 2012 budget vote to done along fiscally conservative lines … It’s #winning!

    If the GOP Senators will chicken out and ask for something meaningless instead, like a BBA vote that wont pass, shame on them for being poor negotiators. THE AIM OF NEGOTIATIONS SHOULD BE REAL, TANGIBLE AND IMMEDIATE “BIRD IN THE HAND” CHANGES TO FISCAL POLICY. ANYTHING LESS IS A FAILURE.

  • johncox

    Sorry to say but we need to recognize a reality. As long as we elect politicians of either stripe who have to raise millions to keep their seats, they will be timid and beholden to the donors that fund their campaigns.

    The first thing the Tea Party elected Congressmen did was hold a fundraiser with lobbyists in DC. They had to. They have to raise bushels of money.

    The only way to bring government back to reality is get money out of campaigns. We need to elect citizen-legislators who can do the right thing – not just what will please donors and rent seekers.

    Start in the states – expand the size of legislators and drastically reduce the size of districts. Make campaign funding unnecessary. End salaries and perks for legislators. Elect citizens who represent their fellow citizens as a duty and an honor, not a job.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    The Texas Constitution has a spending limit based on projections, and its allowed it to increase higher than if it is based on last years reality. OTOH, better to have SOME limit and an 18% limit based on projections would be a good start, heck even 20% limit would force real cuts now.

    Remember, thanks for Obama, it shot up from around 20% under Bush to 25-27% under Obama. … Consider it Obama’s “War on Small Government”

    The key is to get the GOP to demand the cuts NOW and to demand REAL CHANGES, no mere votes or fake future promises.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    The ugly truth – they already got a BBA vote.

    http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/republicans-are-even-stupider-than-i-thought/#comment-9407

  • bbassman

    the repubs know we are stupid. they have done this to us for yrs.we are like the cubs fans just wait we will win next yr. well i am kinda nuts i believe it time to revolt. it works for the muslams.

  • The_Gadfly

    but they should be working on passing real spending cuts instead of wearing out what little patience I have left.

  • The_Gadfly

    The one bit the leadership does correct in their analysis is that it was Clinton who shut down government and then blamed Newt.

    Where they go wrong is in the rest of their assumptions which are:
    1) the lay of the land is the same as then.
    2) all of the media are in the Dems corner so we’ll get creamed on PR.
    3) We have no PR plan in any event.

    The only one of those that is still true is #3, but they SHOULD be able to fix that one. Then we were coming into the full bloom of the Reagan recovery. Now we are looking at the double dip with the second collapse of the housing market. Then there was not blogosphere, now we have it and FOX News. But you still have to be willing to fight for it. And to be willing to fight for it, you have to believe in it. I’m not so sure they believe in it anymore.

  • The_Gadfly

    I think the current one in the Senate generating all the hubbub is Mike Lee’s joint resolution. Mark Levin was ranting about this being a good start last night. Looks like the relevant sections says:

    Section 2. Total outlays shall not exceed 18 per cent of the gross domestic product of the United States for the calendar year ending prior to the beginning of such fiscal year.

    which cover my past objection that it just mandates raising taxes. The bill itself is solid (http://www.passthebba.com/leeamendment/ from my quick search), the problem is that Republicans are only asking for a VOTE on it, not that it be passed by the House and Senate with sufficient votes to send it to the states for approval.

  • The_Gadfly

    laws aren’t worth the paper they are written on.

    Constitutional amendment is the only way to go. Yes it’s draconian. yes, it’s risky. But we’re out of other options.

  • Menlo

    neither is the Constitution worth the paper it is written on.

  • audax
  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    Why should they fight if they don’t see evidence that “we the people” will fight for our liberties?

    fpete13527 says, with hope, “I?ve heard that the Ohio and Virgina GOP Precinct Committees are very ready to fully engage in early primary campaigning ??.NOT in favor of the incumbents. Excelllent.”

    20jan2013 makes a plea they all “grow a pair.” Others ask why the Republican “leaders” can’t learn.

    Bottom line, until they see a credible primary challenge looming on the horizon, they have no incentive to fight.

    Apparently there are insufficient numbers of conservative Republicans in Boehner’s district to change the Republican committees in his district, as I explained here:

    http://www.redstate.com/coldwarrior/2011/03/22/want-to-change-john-boehner-it%E2%80%99s-up-to-the-conservatives-in-his-district/

    Same as to Cantor, as I explained here:

    http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/2011/03/22/a-strategy-for-solving-our-cantor-problem-but-it-requires-action-now/

    Boehner, Cantor and the rest of the Republicans won’t fight until they see “we the people” getting serious, as I explained here:

    http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/2011/03/20/when-are-we-going-to-each-one-of-us-get-serious-and-roll-up-our-sleeves-and-do-politics/

    Until enough of us get involved in the real ball game of politics — party politics — don’t expect anyone to grow a spine. You’ve got to look in the mirror — that’s where the answer lies: in each one of us. We get the government our level of participation in party politics deserves.

    Redstaters: have you purchased your clipboard yet?

    I hope and pray more of us will realize the real way to effect political change begins with the first three words of the Constitution: we the people. If we unite politically inside the Party locally, at the Party committee meetings, according to The Neighborhood Precinct Committeeman Strategy, we can take over the Party and, thereby, replace all the spineless Republicans in the upcoming primary elections.

    But everybody seems to be too busy typing out demands that somebody resign. Or demands for impeachment. Or advice on who we should support in the presidential race.

    All well and good. But without changing who is in congress, none of that matters. And if you want to, this month and next, put the fear of God into the incumbent Republicans, call your Republican representative or senator and tell them you are in the process of becoming a Republican precinct committeeman and that you are recruiting every other conservative you know to become one, too.

    Then act.

    Thank you.

    ColdWarrior

  • Tbone

    how many more do you think we need? The independent Tea Party types only got onboard the Republican train because they thought it might go somewhere. So far, all they have seen is a lot of steam coming of Boehner and Cantor and the wheels aren’t moving. How long do you think they are going to sit there?

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    If not, can you become one?

    Most tea partiers are not “inside” the Republican Party. Had thousands and thousands and thousands of them in 2009 and 2010 become precinct committeemen in their local committees, as I’ve advocated on my blog, and in front of tea party audiences, and to some of the “national coordinators” of certain of the national tea party umbrella groups, the primaries would have had better outcomes and the GOTV efforts would have been stronger.

    Over half of the PC slots in the Party are STILL vacant.

    You seem to think that Boeher and Cantor care about what happened elsewhere. They don’t. They care about what happens in their respective districts. Because their constituencies live there, not elsewhere.

    How long are Cantor and Boehner going to sit there? Until they see a significant uptick in the percentage of precinct committeeman applications by their constituents.

    Thank you.

    CW

  • acat

    Seriously, we sent back too many squishes because nobody wanted to upset the gravy trains in their districts, or because “they’re good men” or .. well, pick an excuse – and that’s what it is – excuses.

    I would hope the Tea Partiers don’t regard a decimation as the end game, especially since those 63 new members are not all pure-as-the-driven-snow Tea Partiers .. as shown by their votes.

    This is the long game, Tbone. Conservatives have played the short game thus far :
    - elect Reagan, crush the Soviets, undo much of Carter’s malaise, *go home*.
    - elect a new House under the CWA, frustrate Clinton for a year, *go home*.

    If the Tea Parties are going to fizzle just because it’s *hard* to keep working year after year, then .. what’s the point? I may as well give up and go on welfare because there’s no reason to keep fighting…. it *can’t* be won using short game short-attention-span rules.

    Mew

  • Tbone

    quit the Republicans. The question is how many of these tea party Republicans could win as a third party in their district? Is it 10; 20; 30?

    I don’t know. But what I do know is that if there were 20 and the Republicans needed their votes to elect a Republican Speaker, they would get the Speaker they wanted not the Speaker the establishment Republicans wanted to shove down their throats.

    Just look at what the Lib Dems got in the UK.

  • fpete13527

    Everything you said in your analysis is accurate and I fully agree with it.

    Everything you said is common knowledge, at least to RedState readers IMO, and has been stated here many times.

    The GOP knows everything you stated also and they know it well.

    What the Old Guard GOP has NOT gotten yet is that they need to be more concerned about the grass roots base on the right than the Dems and the rest. (although I just heard them announce no more CRs – which is good)

    Unfortunately, until they get it, they need to be constantly told via communication such as here, and EXTENSIVELY told by engaging in the political process, namely the Precinct Project (major kudos to CW and RR), to make it clear to them in a louder fashion.

  • Bill S

    but this is a violation of Rule 6.

    http://www.redstate.com/posting-rules/

    (EDIT: It’s not a blatant violation… just thought I’d take the opportunity to remind and publicize the posting rules…)

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    advocate quitting the Republican Party but, instead, like me, advocates taking it over. The basic fact that seems to escape the tea partiers is that they have sufficients numbers to take over, at the precinct level, lock, stock and barrel, the Republican Party because of all the vacancies — over half of the slots are vacant.

    Judson just wrote up very good analysis on his blog about how Reid, Schmumer and Hoyer are desperately trying to divide Boehner, et al and the tea partiers who helped elect all the new conservatives:

    http://www.teapartynation.com/forum/topics/the-democrats-talking-points

    Here’s what I wrote in response:

    Judson,

    Excellent analysis. We should do the exact opposite of what Reid, Schumer and Hoyer are urging Boehner and the “mainstream Republicans” to do — we should, all of us, get on the phone to Boehner, Cantor and our respective Republican senators and representatives and tell them that we are going to support them to make the drastic spending cuts that are necessary, even if they have to shut down the government, and, if they won’t, we conservatives are going to flood into the
    Republican Party at the grass roots, precinct level by becoming precinct committeemen and, after we’ve filled up as many PC slots as possible, we will do to the incumbent Republicans what the Utah grass roots conservatives did to RINO Sen. Bob Bennett — we will take them out in the primary.

    But, words alone won’t do it. We have to demonstrate through our actual actions that our threats will be backed up by organized political action inside the Republican Party itself, as precinct committeemen, where we’ll be in a position to not only determine the outcome of the all-important, traditionally-very-low-turnout primary elections but also be in a position to elect all new conservative Party leaders at the local, county, state and RNC levels.

    Go here to learn how to to it: www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com Look for the link on the right hand side of the blog for your state (after you’ve watched the 13 minute video that lays out the Neighborhood Precinct Committeeman Strategy).

    For Liberty,
    Cold Warrior

    I’m hoping to get the other “national coordinators” to start preaching the Strategy. If all the various grass roots groups told their members to “pivot” into political action at their respective Republican Party committee meetings this month and next month, we’d be in a position to “fundamentally transform” the Republican Party into a conservative Get Out The Vote powerhouse and, eventually, take over its leadership. Grass roots conservatives VASTLY outnumber the existing number of RINOs inside the Party. If they would UNITE inside the Party, they’d OWN it.

    It’s happening in some places, like here in AZ. Why not make it happen where you live?

    Thank you.

    ColdWarrior

  • Flagstaff

    I don’t like the balanced budget amendment in the first place (so I would “lose” if it passed), and if this “threat” gets carried out and it doesn’t pass, the Donkos know they are still in charge.

    This is a direct result of so many years of accommodation and going along to get along. We may have dug a hole too deep to emerge from.

  • acat

    Look how much liberal government they got while the two “conservative” parties were having their pissing contest a decade or so back.

    Mew

  • Tbone

    I lived through the Ross Perot disaster. Further, I think CWs approach has great merit for a long term solution. However, we can’t underestimate the power that the DC establishment has to repel good intentions by new members by stifling them in the apparatus of entrenched party structure. The neutering we have seen of those recent additions will not be tolerated by those who are conservative first and Republican second.

    As such, it is not the advocacy of a third party by those outside the beltway, it is the disregard by the Republican leadership of those with conservative aspirations that speaks power to those who seek a rapid return to responsible governance.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.timelyrenewed.com timelyrenewed

    A balanced budget amendment in theory is a worthy endeavor. However, it is unclear how it could possibly get a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate in the 112th Congress. At least one-third of each is hardcore leftists who would rather shut down government than have their ability to tax and spend truly and effectively shut down forever. The only way it will get through, even as part of a deal to raise the debt ceiling, would be if it as full of loopholes as PAY-GO.

    If we are going to devote resources to a constitutional amendment in the 112th Congress, let’s put through an amendment to the amendment process itself which will eliminate the unnecessary convention now required by Article V and permit States to directly initiate amendment proposals. This will break the current de facto federal congressional and judicial monopoly on interpreting the Constitution, and permit grassroots patriots on the state level to pass a real balanced budget amendment.

    In addition, other constitutional amendments restoring federalism could then be pursued on the state level without having to go to Washington for approval. Only this will permanently constrain future federal overreach of the sort rejected by the people in November. See http://www.timelyrenewed.com

  • edintexas

    And not a Conservative. Just a party line Republican. With the success of RS, the site attracts more and more “status quo ante bellum” Republicans (and more Kosovarians too). For that matter, I don’t know if they recognize there is any political combat taking place in this country.

  • AceInTX
  • hc68

    Better get used to it, because it’s going to keep happening. We’re up against fundamental human nature.

    The reason the United States is in the mess is not _just_ the Democrats, though they are by far the worst enablers. The reason we’re in this mess is that the electorate likes low taxes, high expenditures, and balanced budgets. All three, and give it wings. For 40 years, Congress has dealt with that contradiction by borrowing money to make up the difference, to the point that we’re reaching the stage where we can’t keep borrowing, the rope is running out.

    But…the public _still_ wants high spending and low taxes. Further, like it or hate it, but Franklin D. Roosevelt is still remembered with affection and approval by the majority of the country. Even many self-identified conservatives agree with FDR was right to set up Social Security and the rest of the surviving bits of the New Deal.

    Yeah, the electorate, and even the TEA Party, all keep saying they want budget cuts instead of tax increases, and they mean it…in the abstract. But the polling data is pretty clear, if you ask _even the TEA Party activists_ on the specifics, the tune usually changes. Cut Social Security? No. Cut Medicare? No. Cut Defense? No. We can’t cut debt service payments without defaulting, which would have ghastly consequences.

    So, we end up with the Same Old, Same Old: cut foreign aid, cut ‘waste, fraud, and abuse’, cut Someone Else’s Spending. It’s human nature, the abstract demand for cuts turns into demands to cut Somebody Else’s wasteful spending so as to preserve My Own Necessary Programs.

    The last election wasn’t about spending cuts anyway, it was about Obamacare and public hatred of it, and the public hated it at least as much because of Death Panels and Medicare cuts as they did budgetary reasons. Trying to read the last election as a national mandate for deep cuts to entitlements is self-delusion. The news that Obama proposed to cut hundreds of millions from Medicare to make the math appear to work for Obamacare was probably the biggest single thing that turned the public our way on it.

    For the first time in decades, the polls in late 2010 showed the electorate trusted the GOP more than the Dems on Medicare, after the GOP made hay off the Medicare cuts Obama and Pelosi and Reid had tried to propose for their funny math. That approval, though, was an expression that the electorate for the first time thought the GOP was _less likely to cut_ Medicare than the Dems were, because of the Obamacare debate.

    We have a major mess on our hands, and there’s no easy way out.

  • hc68

    Unfortunately, tiem 1 is not as true as many conservatives wish it was. The public was demanding fiscal rectitude in 1994, too…until the Dems convinced them that it was going to touch Medicare. Boom.

    The ‘Medicare cuts’ narrative was of course a lie. I saw what the Dems intended to do from the moment the GOP was in 1994, but they were caught totally off-guard. _Two straight years_ of TV spots showing the elderly scared, talking about non-existent Medicare cuts, more-or-less implying that the New Deal was in danger, absolutely killed the GOP. It didn’t even have to be true, just the perception was enough.

    The underlying reason ‘Mediscare’ works so well as a tactic, though, is that Social Security and Medicare are _popular_. The electorate likes them and wants to keep them as is, or make them more generous. Conservatives don’t have to agree with that, but we forget where the electorate is on it at our peril.

    Remember, GWB’s post-2004 collapse in the polls came almost precisely when he started talking about private accounts for Social Security. The public _hated_ the idea and the more they heard about it the more thaty hated it. It did GWB at least as much damage as Katrina.

    Further, and this is especially grating to us as conservatives, but is still quite true: the most popular domestic thing GWB ever did was Medicare Part D. It’s self-delusion to claim, as I’ve heard some conservatives do, that Medicare-D harmed the GOP at the ballot box, I’m rather afraid it’s more likely that it saved the world from a John Kerry presidency, by temporarily de-fanging ‘Mediscare’.

    The lay of the land has changed some, because of Item 2, it’s very helpful that the media monopoly is broken. But the puiblic still loves Medicare and Social Security, whether we like that or not. Entitlement reform is a politicaa mindfield, and ‘bold leadership’ is dangerous in a mind field.