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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Conservatives Stand to Lose Big in 2012

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  May 24th, 2011 at 10:22 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

After the historic gains made by conservatives — not just Republicans — in 2010, the conservative movement stands to slide back and lose in 2012.

I’m not talking about the race to the White House. I’m talking about the United States Senate. At a time when Senate Republicans refuse to lead and Mitch McConnell is doing his best to marginalize the solid conservatives, the right is distracted by the White House. The same GOP that tried to stick the right with Trey Greyson, Charlie Crist, Mike Castle, and more is going to try again. If conservatives are not vigilant, they’re going to be stuck with the likes of Heather Wilson, etc.

Let’s review the lay of the land and the states I’m interested in.

Arizona

I’m going with Jeff Flake here. He’s not a perfect candidate, but I believe he is the best candidate and the most likely candidate to be a thorn in the GOP leadership’s side in the Senate. That is no small matter. We need to keep up internal pressure on the GOP and Flake can do that.

Florida

Adam Hasner is the guy conservatives should rally to. LeCrist is the D.C. favorite, but he is tied too deeply to Charlie Crist. Haridopolous does not impress me and I expect the opposition to make great hay out of some of his more dubious issues, including that book.

Indiana

I’m not prepared to endorse here yet, but it is clear Dick Lugar needs to go, and more and more it looks like Richard Mourdock is the guy to do it. Mourdock would be a clear improvement over Dick Lugar. Conservatives have a real shot to toss Lugar and keep Indiana.

MIssissippi

I’d love to take out Roger Wicker. It’d be good for the conservative movement. The guy is terrible. But I don’t see any conservative stepping up right now in state where Wicker is eminently beatable in a primary according to some recent polling from PPP that shows Wicker is only one point ahead from a generic conservative alternative.

Missouri

Right now I’m looking at Sarah Steelman, but I’m undecided here. McCaskill is going to be hard to beat with Obama on the ballot in 2012.

Montana

The present Republican in the race, Denny Rehberg, is not the best the GOP can do. I don’t know who can step up in Montana, but Rehberg should be considered the bottom of the barrel, not the best available candidate to run.

Nebraska

Conservatives going with Jon Bruning are making a terrible mistake. I realize the Bible is a story of repentance and forgiveness, but you don’t put the new converts in the Senate where they have six years to go Chuck Hagel on us. Don Stenberg is my guy for this race.

“I would love to persuade you that trickle down economics was a farce or that Ronald Reagan was incapable of understanding complex policy arguments.”

“I believe in gun control.”

“I think a woman should have a right to choose.”

Those are just some of Jon Bruning’s greatest hits.

Yes, he has grown up. Yes, he has changed. Yes, he is center-right now. But I want to put a guy in the Senate who has a long term conservative track record. Conservatives have been burned once before by Nebraska with Chuck Hagel.

I’m going with Don Stenberg.

New Mexico

The number one goal of conservatives in 2012, other than defeating Barack Obama, has got to be defeating Heather Wilson in New Mexico. She’d be Mike Castle terrible in the United States Senate. Luckily, we have a strong, viable challenger to her in the primary named John Sanchez.

We should rally early for Sanchez to stop Wilson.

Ohio

Two words: Josh Mandel

Tennessee

Surely conservatives can find somebody decent to beat the heck out of Bob Corker in a primary in Tennessee. Corker is terrible. He pushes the Senate GOP left and toward capitulation. He is contemptuous of conservatives. He’s bad news.

Conservatives need to rally in Tennessee and take out Bob Corker. If keeping Heather Wilson out of the Senate is priority number one, number two is ridding the Senate of Bob Corker.

Texas

Too soon to decide yet between Williams and Cruz. But at all costs we need to stop Leppert. I think even DewCrist would be better than Leppert.

Wisconsin

No idea on this one, but Tommy Thompson needs to be beaten. We don’t need to fill John Ensign’s void with a guy like Thompson. That’s even above and beyond his Obamacare support, etc. Beloved or not in Wisconsin, conservatives can do much, much better.

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COMMENTS

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  • Finrod

    I’d put Dick Lugar just as high on the ‘must be defeated’ list as Heather Wilson and Bob Corker. Indiana is a red state no matter the 2008 Presidential election, and Lugar keeps trending more and more left each year.

  • jimc1969

    I live in NJ, VERY tough state for conservatives. The GOP here is VERY left wing, and the one case I can think of a conservative winning a statewide primary ( Bret Schundler when he ran for governor ) the establishment, basically did NOTHING to help in the general election, the guy he beat didn’t even endorse him, I’d be willing to beat he either voted for Jim McGreevy ( the Democrat ) or simply did not vote for a governor. I saw him on a local news station on election night, and he seemed happy that Schundler lost.

  • jimc1969

    I live in NJ, VERY tough state for conservatives. The GOP here is VERY left wing, and the one case I can think of a conservative winning a statewide primary ( Bret Schundler when he ran for governor ) the establishment, basically did NOTHING to help in the general election, the guy he beat didn’t even endorse him, I’d be willing to beat he either voted for Jim McGreevy ( the Democrat ) or simply did not vote for a governor. I saw him on a local news station on election night, and he seemed happy that Schundler lost.

  • Paul Seale

    I would urge you to keep your powder dry in Missouri.

    McCaskill is beatable, but we must not beat our selves first. Would note my analysis of Steelman a few months ago. Solid candidate yes, first choice no.

    Race is still fluid.

    Todd Akin is another conservative who just entered the race. There may be one more, who I personally met with a couple weeks ago, who could change the entire shape of the race.

    I would urge all Missourians to let things develop a while longer before deciding.

    What ever the case, we must unite to defeat McCaskill in the fall.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And the best part is that we’ve got really good candidates running against both Lugar and Hatch.

  • http://dezignworx-ae.com tsquare

    Todd Akin is now in the race. Todd a 6 term Congressman for Missouri’s 2nd District, is a conservative’s conservative. He’ll give Air Claire a run for it to be sure…

  • lineholder

    NC was a 50/50 state in 2008. We’ve moved to the right since then, as evidenced by gains in the State House. But Burr can’t exactly be described as conservative. He’s very entrenched in the political system in this state. No one to the right of him has presented a challenge. Do you see any chance of this happening?

    And even though Kay Hagan doesn’t belong to the hard core left group, she’s one of the Dems who believes more government is the solution to the problems we’re facing. Any possible candidates there that you see?

  • chipbennett

    Yes! TODD AKIN for Missouri GOP Senate!

    Erick, please look into Todd Akin. I have nothing against Sarah Steelman, but Akin is a solid conservative, and can easily win statewide office in Missouri.

    As a former MO-2 constituent, I vouch 100% for Akin. (Now I’m stuck with Lacy Clay in MO-1. Blech.)

  • lineholder

    Any ideas there? Thanks.

  • Bill S

    Erick, you need to take a much closer look at Rep. Akin. His conservative credentials are impeccable.

    You’ll be hearing more from me on that soon… ;-)

  • gawken

    for the following reasons:

    1.The GOP will take control of the Senate. Bob Beckle, on Hannity last night, said so publicly. First time I’ve heard a major Dem strategist admit it. It’s just a question of by how big a margin. And while many of the races discussed above may not go the way we would like, overall, the GOP Senate caucus will be ideologically more conservative than at present.

    2. The reduced Dem caucus will be far, far more liberal/left than now. Thus they willNOT be able to pull Republican Senate squishes towards the middle, as their won’t be much of a middle ground in the Senate. The remaining RINOS will stay with the caucus for the most part when the votes are counted

  • onemovoter

    There was a GOP state convention poll done and Thompson didn’t win it. Ted Kanavas actually won it. I don’t live there but found it interesting.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/uh-oh-tommy-thompson-loses-wisconsin-republican-straw-poll_567640.html

    Can someone look into Ted and see what to look for?

  • robbyahm

    To beat Roger Wicker of MS, you have to beat the Good’le Southern Boy Club, he and Shelby of AL make GA’s senators look Conservative by comparison. In order to beat Wicker i would recommend drafting a woman to run for senate cause Lord knows that this state has an AWFUL record in electing women to either national or statewide office.
    http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/fast_facts/resources/state_fact_sheets/MS.php

    Maybe MS doesnt want to do that, well here’s another recommendation, http://www.billmarcyforcongress.net/?page_id=2 Bill Marcy was endorsed by Sarah Palin when he ran against Rep. Bennie Thompson, Marcy got 61,000+ votes or 37.3%. Dont shoot the messenger, im just trying to help brainstorm here.

    In Ohio, I dont know about Josh Mandel, Im pretty sure if Erickson likes him that much he must be really good guy, though wasnt he was just elected to the Treasurer? just asking, what about Ken Blackwell? he not good anymore?

    Youve pretty much a bunch of newbies in the congressional roster in TN with the exception of Marsha Blackburn, would she be better than Corker?

  • earlgrey

    It also doesn’t look like Russ feingold is going for that seat.

  • earlgrey

    nt.

  • TxCon

    Hope my fellowships Texans realize this

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    After we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2010, we’re going to need more time to find a good candidate and deal with the fractured condition of the State GOP. I wouldn’t mind seeing Mike Coffman or Cory Gardner run in 2014. I think either one would have a real shot at taking out Mark Udall.

  • victrola

    I don’t want a repeat of what happened in Nevada with Sharon Angle, Delaware with Christine O’Donnell or Colorado with Ken Buck. All of these races were VERY winnable, yet we ignored candidate quality for the sake of ideological purity (which is easy to find when you have a blank slate for a record) The Senate would be a much better institution had we picked up these three races, even if the alternatives weren’t perfect conservatives.

    If I have little confidence a Republican can beat the eventual Democrat , I’m not interested in how “super awesome” they are, candidate quality is especially important when you’re talking about potential Senators. I want to see prior elected experience on a resume at the very least.

    In some cases where it’s a solidly conservative state like Indiana, I’m all for a Mourdock trying to knock off a Lugar, but these cases are rare where you have a quality alternative that can win the general election. I’m much more concerned with knocking off liberal Democrats than I am knocking off imperfect Republicans, and in some swing states, you have to make compromises unless you want to simply end up with liberal Democrats.

    We didn’t get disasters like ObamaCare from moderate Republicans, we got it from having 60 liberal Democrats in the Senate.

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    Miller in alaska.

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    needs to figure out who is the strongest quickly because both of them in will cancel each other out.

  • citizenjerry

    You’re right, Erick, about Jon Bruning. He seems a bit too smooth at times for me. We’ve already suffered 12 years of Upchuck Hagel.

    Stenberg has some good ideas, but he’s the Harold Stassen of Nebraska politics. As soon as he landed the job as state treasurer, he was looking for something else. And he’s already run unsuccessfully against Ben Nelson for the Senate. Of course that was long before Nelson accepted a bribe in the form of the Cornhusker Kickback.

    I like Stenberg, I’m just not sure he can get elected.

  • http://barnettlaw.org Frozen_Man

    I live in NM and have been very unimpressed by Heather Wilson over the years and nearly everything I know about John Sanchez. I worry however at how hard it is to elect a republican much less a conservative one in New Mexico. It does give me some hope with how well Governor Martinez did in 2010 but on the down ticket very few other republicans got elected state wide. Martinez was helped out by the fact that the Richardson’s lieutenant governor was running in and there were so many scandals in his office and his approval was so low. Martinez won in both the NM-1 and NM-2 but both were lost on the congressional level. It is so hard for a conservative in NM to win because it is such as sparsely spread out state and liberals only need to win Santa Fe and Albuquerque to make it almost impossible for a conservative who has to transverse the entire rest of the state and win all the small communities. Compound that with the fact that very little money is generally given to NM republican candidates (national funds as well as statewide funds) and that many people in rural areas of NM do not have internet or cable and it is hard to have a good GOTV effort. If a republican candidate can’t eat into the vote in Santa Fe and Albuquerque it is really hard to have a chance in a statewide election. I always in the end support the conservative candidate but hope it is not another Nevada//Colorado/Alaska/Delaware.

  • mtm0422a

    Kevin Coughlin was a state rep and state senator and is running for Senate. Here’s an Akron Beacon Journal article about him – http://www.ohio.com/news/politics/112649484.html.

    Ken Blackwell seemed to take residence in Washington DC with the Family Research Council since he lost the governor race in 2008. And Josh Mandel is 34 years old and just won his first statewide contest last year. Those would be the strikes against those two if they decided to run, but that’s another problem… they’re still deciding. Mandel has filed the paperwork, but hasn’t made a comment beyond that. Blackwell has expressed interest,but again has made little official commitment. Coughlin at this time is actively running.

  • TxCon

    Don’t get me wrong, I really like Williams, as he and Cruz are both solid candidates. But given the demos of Texas, Cruz is the best candidate. My dream is for Williams to replace Cornyn in 2014.

  • cwilson

    that everytime a liberal RINO is nominated, conservatives are expected to hold their nose and vote for the “good of the party” — and if the RINO loses it’s our fault, and not the establishment squishes who pushed Mr. RINO’s primary candidacy in the first place?

    But when a conservative is nominated, and the establishment squishes endorse the Democrat, stab the nominee in the back (or the front) on CNNMSNBCABCCBSNBCFOX, and generally act like ***holes, and the nominee loses…AGAIN it’s the conservatives’ fault for nominating on the basis of “ideological purity”?

    When will those squishes EVER be expected to hold THEIR noses, and vote for “Angle, O’Donnell, or Buck” for the “good of the party?” Hello? How about a little consistency of expectation from the squishes?

  • redtillimdead

    Burr was just re-elected. He’s not up until 2016. Hagan isn’t up until 2014, but Patrick McHenry and Renee Ellmers look good.

  • redtillimdead

    Do you think he will go for Gov? After being Treasurer and SoS, that seems more natural. I was expecting Gardner or Norton for Senate. Kelly Ayotte has already talked Norton up. Who else do we have for Gov if Coffman goes for Senate and the other two wait for 2016?

  • redtillimdead

    United around their candidates for the most part. However, you can’t win a race in these 3 states with just Republicans. The reason Buck, Angle, and O’Donnell lost whereas Norton, Tarkanian, and Castle would have won is that they couldn’t get the crossover support from Democrats and Independents that the other three would have

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    It’s still 4 years away, so there’s time. I don’t see Coffman going back to state Politics after Federal, and there’s an almost certainty that he will be redistricted out in the next election.

  • robbyahm

    Wow, just read the article you linked in and not bad, he didnt always play with Republicans and he was the lone vote to not “rejecting nearly a quarter of outgoing Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s appointments to state boards and commissions.” talk about standing on principle, although that may probably hurt him in the primary than it will in the general. Ill keep an eye on him.

  • philhoganjr

    And for the record, painting Buck with the same brush as O’Donnell and Angle is way off base.

    Buck lost because a) the NRSC went huge for Norton in the primary and bloodied Buck up, and b) we had zero ground game in Colorado in terms of gotv. Thank you, Michael Steele.

    Gotv, or lack thereof, also hurt angle, but it probably wouldn’t have made the difference. And O’Donnell was toast from the get go.

  • cwilson

    Case in point: Miller vs. Murkowski in Alaska. What did Art Chance do, when given the choice between supporting the nominee of the party, and actively working against the party nominee to support a turncoat?

    How many Art Chances were there, in those four races? Or others?

    That’s not “Democratic and Independent crossovers”. That’s RINOs working against the party, in addition to simply voting for the other guy.

    Yet somehow it’s conservatives who are always accused of taking their ball and going home — but it’s the RINOs who actually do it.

  • Mayhem

    1. Indiana: Are you holding off on Mourdock because you think someone else will get in? Conservatives here have been working hard to make sure that DOESN’T happen, in order to avoid a split in the primary vote. I’m not sure what your hesitancy is with Mourdock. Could you explain?

    2. Missouri: I’m surprised that you didn’t even mention Todd Akin in your analysis. Is there something we should know about him? He is such a solid conservative. Please, fill us in.

    3. Utah: Again, you didn’t even mention Utah. What gives? Doesn’t Utah give us a chance for Mike Lee 2.0? Isn’t Utah another opportunity to “stick a thorn” in the flesh of the leadership? Surely, you don’t think Hatch is a thorn. Please, let us know what you know.

    I live off your analysis, Erick (as most movement conservatives do). Any further explanation on these races would be helpful.

  • robbyahm

    There are some other races going on that Mr. Erickson did not mentioned but I believe are essential.

    VA (D-OPEN): this one could be a clash of the “macacas” between Tim “Obama’s best friend” Kaine and George “Republicans cant do better that recycle another 2006 loser candidate” Allen. anyhow, it can be a republican pick up.

    ND (D-OPEN): here’s another easy opportunity to pick up a second us senate seat in ND. I was thinking somewhere along the lines of Kelly Schmidt, the treasurer of ND since the state has 3% unnemployment and a surplus somebody’s got to be doing something right, but i dont know, maybe someone else can do it, but dont forget this one.

    MI (D-STABENOW): with michigan going Republican in 2010 we got to at least make an effort in this senate election, the more we take down less we have to worry. throwing a name here, Bill Hardiman…look him up.

    CT (I-OPEN): i know for a fact a republican wont win this seat but that doesnt mean we could help boost a more moderate democrat to be the nominee in this race and be a pain in their butt or is that asking too much, I was probably thinking the same thing about Hawaii’s open seat but that one’s as good as gone.

    NV (R-HELLER): last but no least, nevada opened up for a moment and then “Ensign resign” question though is, is Heller good? in not, do we primary him? speaking of primaring, any words about Scott Brown and/or Olympia Snow?

  • congressworksforus

    Remember, in 2008, this was the one “swing state” that DIDN’T vote for Obumbles…

  • congressworksforus

    What happened there is the same as what happened in CT in 2006. Too much crossing of party lines in the general to keep someone OUT versus to vote FOR someone.

    That and kickbacks, pork, federal government bribery, etc….

  • congressworksforus

    Exit polling showed that the Marxist would have beaten Castle in DE handily too…

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    That’s the number it takes to vote cloture, and even RINO’s will be reluctant to go against the party on a cloture vote. It would be a heckuva lot easier to get to 60 if we hadn’t thrown away those 3 seats in 2010–from 50 to 60 is a lot more doable. Even so, with electable candidates then 63 is doable. Much better to have an Olympia Snowe than give the seat to the Democrats. — Okay go ahead a yell a me. I belong to the Buckley wing of the party–I support the most conservative Republican who can get elected.

  • red_oakster

    Like the Bull Durham pitcher, sometimes you throw a mighty fastball (promoting Pence or recognizing Pawlenty is for real, or focusing attention, as you do in this post, on finding a conservative challenger to Corker in Tennessee or Wicker In MS or promoting Adam Hasner in FL).

    But other times you throw a mile wide, just like Laloosh did.

    1. Jeff Flake? The guy is bad on a number of foreign policy and defense issues and absolutely horrible on immigration. Surely we can do better than Flake.

    2. Stenberg? The guy is a hopeless career politician. As for Bruning’s youthful mistakes, remember that some of the best anti-communists like Whitaker Chambers, were ex-communists. Ex-liberals can be great conservatives.

    3. I know this is called Red State, but there are a lot of bluish states that could flip with the right candidate. Your attention could help change the game. Michigan. New Jersey. Pennsylvania. Washington. Even New York in 2012. Every one has an uninspiring incumbent. In every one of these states, there is a chance we can go from a senator who votes the right way about zero per cent of the time to someone who votes the right way 60%. Picking up 60 points in swinging a state is a big deal for the conservative movement. And while I’m fully in agreement in finding conservative challengers in red states who will replace a 70% senator with a 90% senator, finding and supporting candidates whose election mean 60 point swings are critical to passing legislation. You might not get Brown on medicare, but you’ll get him on tax cuts and missile defense. You might not get Kirk on abortion, but you’ll get him on repeal of Obamacare. So more attention to electable candidates in blue states would add tremendous value. And when you get a senate caucus of 57, 58, or more Republicans, the defections of the 60 per centers aren’t nearly as important or painful.

  • congressworksforus

    But primarying Scott Brown? Sorry, but that’s as good as handing the seat back to the Dems. And Brown is a repeal-Obamacare “yes” vote. I’d rather have that, than someone who wouldn’t even vote for cloture.

    Besides, look at the reality of the situation with Brown; as squishy as he may or may not be, we don’t control the Senate so none of his votes really have any meaningful impact. Some of his posturing is simply electioneering to make sure he doesn’t lose to the Dem.

    Brown with a 6 year term might be a bit more conservative than we’re expecting.

    Back to Snowe… Maine went pretty solidly red last year; primarying her AND winning the general is certainly do-able.

  • congressworksforus

    And, FWIW, I’m after 60+ seats. Winning control isn’t enough…

  • victrola

    The Latino vote is very much up for grabs, capturing the black vote is a pipe dream. With the way demographics are trending, Republicans need to make inroads before they become a solid voting block Democrats can put in their back pocket.

    Both are fine men and good conservatives, but if I’m going to make a calculated pick, I think Republicans should go out of their way to promote quality Latino candidates whenever possible.

  • redtillimdead

    I invite you to ask President Kerry about those

  • robbyahm

    Latinos into the same pack, Cruz may have a Spaniard’s name and probably speaks somewhat the spanish language but his Cuban father’s background is far different than say a Mexican or Guatemalan or ect. ect. ect.

    That’s a good thought though but dont put too much stock in that.

  • YnotNOW

    and squishy where that is the best we can do against a marxist.

    Politics is a place where the perfect is often the enemy of the good. Requiring purity is a recipe for marginalization.

  • YnotNOW

    and squishy where that is the best we can do against a marxist.

    Politics is a place where the perfect is often the enemy of the good. Requiring purity is a recipe for marginalization.

  • bk

    because they’re already there. And will stay there.

  • bk
  • YnotNOW

    If the democrats retain 43 or 44 seats (enough to sustain a filibuster even with the defection of 1 or 2 members), then there will absolutely be a “middle” in the Senate. Too many establishment types will compromise in the hopes of getting something done, and will hamstring Conservative efforts to pull the Senate to the Right.

    61 is the goal.

  • YnotNOW

    If the democrats retain 43 or 44 seats (enough to sustain a filibuster even with the defection of 1 or 2 members), then there will absolutely be a “middle” in the Senate. Too many establishment types will compromise in the hopes of getting something done, and will hamstring Conservative efforts to pull the Senate to the Right.

    61 is the goal.

  • chipbennett

    And Claire the Lib knows she’s done here. Missouri voted for McCain in 2008, spanked ObamaCare by a 71% – 29% margin, and voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2010. McCaskill has continued to sidle up to Obama, and has serious ethical/tax problems.

    Just a solid candidate is all it will take to win. Steelman can win; Akin would be the far better choice.

  • YnotNOW

    When the Repub candidate for governor imploded, it hurt the R ticket up and down the ballot.
    There was some fraud, but “probably” not enough to swing that race.

    NightTwister is right, that 2010 left the caucus in dissarray, and may take time to regroup. But I think most learned their lesson, and will focus on properly vetting candidates and putting forth a strong effort to oust Dems. Swing state Colorado requires either side to come with their “A” game if they hope to win.

  • YnotNOW

    When the Repub candidate for governor imploded, it hurt the R ticket up and down the ballot.
    There was some fraud, but “probably” not enough to swing that race.

    NightTwister is right, that 2010 left the caucus in dissarray, and may take time to regroup. But I think most learned their lesson, and will focus on properly vetting candidates and putting forth a strong effort to oust Dems. Swing state Colorado requires either side to come with their “A” game if they hope to win.

  • chipbennett

    All the 5s I can give to Akin.

    I’ll be watching what you have to say. You can only imagine how excited I was when I heard that Akin announced.

  • TxCon

    between Williams and Cruz, Cruz is better pick strategically

  • jeffreywturner

    Determining who the “most” conservative who can still get elected isn’t always black and white. For instance, clearly O’Donnell didn’t fit this bill in DE. However, I think Ken Buck CO and Sharron Angle in NV might have fit the bill, because each of those candidates “could” get elected, they just didn’t. Anytime a candidate in a state or local election finishes within a few points of winning, you have to assume that they “could” have been elected had they run a little better campaign.

    Again, I agree in principle, but it can sometimes be difficult to know exactly where to draw that line of electability.

    For instance this coming cycle, I think the black and white cases are ME and IN. Clearly we throw away a seat in ME if we oust the incumbent, but just as clearly we can do way better than the incumbent in IN.

  • bk

    But it looks like he actually lost by around 30K.

  • freemanja1991

    Shame to possibly loss good years by him waiting till 14

  • robbyahm

    Cruz can compete in one of the four new congressional district, one of them is bound to be a simple hispanic majority and with his great fundraising skill and spanish name he can stop a democrat from getting a new seat in Texas and let Michael Williams become the next senator from the great state of texas, figured Michael has already run statewide several times so he has some good name recognition compare to Ted who was never run for office before, and conservatives cannot afford to divide their vote and let someone like the former Dallas mayor become the nominee (otherwise people may vote for Patty Murray’s pick;)

  • YnotNOW
  • YnotNOW
  • freemanja1991

    Get off Him now or you will loss that seat he is a great guy.

  • http://adeoalibertate.davidlightfinger.com Lightfinger

    Erick,

    I responded off my own blog on the endorsement on Stenberg (http://adeoalibertate.davidlightfinger.com/now-erick-erickson-endorses-stenberg), but let me put a comment or two here.

    Don Stenberg is a great guy, personally, but has suffered from poor choices in campaign staff which critically hampered his previous campaigns for Senate. In every case, he was the more conservative candidate, but he is ineffective in communicating his message. If he wins the primary against Bruning, Flynn, and probably Fischer, he’ll be up against smooth talking Cornhusker Kickbacker Ben Nelson. He’s lost that battle before, and until he can prove to me his campaign staff is competent and he can get his message out, he won’t beat Nelson.

    Case in point, because of rain, Omaha moved its Tea Party rally to May 7th. Both Stenberg and Bruning had tables there, but Stenberg had packed up and left before I even got to the event. That is poor planning and event organizing on Stenberg’s part. This is the sort of thing he needs to fix before he’ll even get past Bruning, let along Nelson.

    Bruning is no saint, that is true. However, Senator Johanns used to be a Democrat, and he’s one of the best Senators up there currently. Bruning, however, is close friends with David Sokol, who is under fire for some shady insider trading deals and why he left Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway just days before the annual stockholder meeting. Bruning jumped out immediately to defend Sokol, and has been blasted for it. So, he’s not unbeatable. He still polls better than Stenberg, though, and that’s the gap.

    As I said in my blog, I really wish you would have waited until February for this. Nebraskans honestly won’t start getting involved until after the caucus in neighboring Iowa is over with the Senate race. That’s when this would have made a greater impact.

  • freemanja1991

    There are too many good candidates for that open seat some need to find other places to run, Like Martin for Atternoy Gen, or Cunningham for LT GOV.

  • freemanja1991

    There are too many good candidates for that open seat some need to find other places to run, Like Martin for Atternoy Gen, or Cunningham for LT GOV.

  • jeffreywturner

    It really needs to be someone who already has a lot of personal popularity in ME to have a good chance, particularly in a Presidential year where they will be running under a standard-bearer that will probably lose by double-digits in the state.

    Does anyone here know ME politics? Are there any uber-popular conservative Republicans in that state looking for a job?

  • freemanja1991

    say this is good or bad?

  • freemanja1991

    say this is good or bad?

  • robbyahm

    Tha’s fine, I was just asking, we were going to do the same thing with Ensign in this case with Heller but now that Heller is the incumbent, has he been going wobbly in his vote to appease any center-left interest? but if you say he is a great guy then ok, well leave him alone.

  • TxCon

    nt

  • TxCon

    although I’d prefer Cruz

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I don’t know ME politics, but you are right on the money about having a credible candidate who can win in November.

    How about the current Governor? He seems to be pretty conservative, could he be a possibility?

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    our candidates were raving idiots. Yeah, they won their primaries, mostly from an infusion of TP or SP money late in the race combined with an overwhelming sense of entitlement by the leading Republican candidate.

    It’s pretty instructive that Palin provided large amounts of money and good publicity to O’Donnell, Miller and Angle to boost their primary wins and then was MIA for the general in all three cases. The problem wasn’t a lack of support from state organizations, it was the nature of really ignorant and pathetic candidates.

  • dhoerster

    Bobby Casey is imminently beatable. I mean, there’s really not much there. PA is ready to have two conservative senators. We need your attention!

  • victrola

    Usually dramatic flame outs don’t happen to candidates that have been successful in the past at winning public office, it’s the rookie “activist” that has never ran for public office that wakes up one day and decides they want to be a Senator or Governor that usually blows it, and the results hurt tremendously down the entire ticket (see Colorado for an example) We basically lost the entire state because of one idiot.

    That’s a big reason why I almost always immediately dismiss candidates who want to run for Governor or Senate but have NEVER been successful in front of voters before. It’s simply not worth the gamble, I would rather take my chances on a proven quantity, even if they’re not “perfect” conservatives.

  • lineholder

    Chalk that one up to brain lapse on my part. Or maybe wishful thinking. NC shifted to the right in 2010. And within my own small area of existence here in the state, it’s little more than a powder keg waiting for a match to light up from somewhere. Even just a little bit of strong, positive conservative leadership could go a long way.

    I guess I was hoping that it would come into play on a local level between now and Nov. 2012.

  • freemanja1991

    is hurting, Heller, Krolici, and Sandoval are about it. Hopefully Maurice Washington will Run for congress or a state wide office sometime, but they are hurting. Jon Porter comming back would also be good if redistricting is favorable, and takes Boulder city out of Heck’s district. heller won 3 state wide races, before being in congress. 06 & 08 were only as close as they were because he’s from Carson City when about 2/3 of that district is in Reno/Sparks. And he was hammered in 08 for voting against “great bills” because they were laydened with pork.

  • freemanja1991

    I’ve heard many recent complaints about Rubio, so you can never be sure. But I think Williams would be better in 12, Cruz in 14.

  • freemanja1991

    Appointed Wicker, maybe he sould fix the problem. Since he not running for pres.

  • freemanja1991

    Allen West to Run for senate in Florida he’d be the best.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    If you can convince her to run, I’ll vote for her in a New York minute. Blackburn may have a few issues, but she is a solid Conservative.

  • khhunt

    Mitch for Lugar’s spot??

  • blairblaster3

    in every state and in every district. 61 is not the goal in the senate-70 is and if we get 67 and 302 in the house that’s called veto proof

  • blairblaster3

    Allen West should run for President. But he shouldn’t throw in his hat until next spring

  • gunslingr45

    but it is clear Dick Lugar needs to go

    I have been screaming that for years. But the farmers love that good ole boy.

  • gunslingr45

    would never run against Lefty Lugar.

    So many RINO?s so little time!

  • shadow999

    The problem with the GOP many of them are still stuck on the good-old-boy’s club attitude. I’ve seen it happen in too many races where the next person in line is put forward to run for governor or congress just because they’ve been there longer. We’ve lost too many good candidates because they are fresh, new, and willing to stand up to the old establishment. Too bad for Republicans. Democrats on the other hand look for people that are fresh, new and can win elections.

  • gunslingr45

    Allen West for prez!

    So many RINO?s so little time

  • jeffreywturner

    Yeh the gall of some people is ridiculous. For people to go straight from never having had a real job (ie: merely an activist) to wanting to be elected to statewide office is downright foolish. Now a CEO of a major company, or a General or Admiral or something of that nature may qualify someone for high office, but if you have never had a real job, you need to run for mayor, or state assembly or something before you think you can be Governor or Senator.

  • rememberthealamo

    It’s early in the morning, it was a late stormy night and I want to be sure here ….. Is everyone talking about Roger Williams or Michael Williams?

  • LibertarianHawk

    Personally, I’m not quite as down on Lugar as many are. But Dick Mourdock is a longtime friend and his politics are probably closer to mine than Lugar’s are. So I’ll definitely be supporting Mourdock.

    But I’d be surprised if Lugar is defeated. He’s about like everybody’s surrogate grandfather around here. He’s more than a political institution, he’s like a member of the family.

  • robbyahm

    We were talking about Michael Williams, apparently there’s another guy with the last name Williams running for the senate huh? I hope people dont confuse the two /s

    BTW hope everything went ok for you, some storm going on last night over in the plains.

  • robbyahm

    You hit the nail in the head!

    I live in Alabama and in 2010 democrats were defeated in a bloodbath from top-down, problem is almost every Republican were old former democrats, country-club republicans, or somebody whos been related to somebody else in politics. Its really just getting old. Point in fact, our Gov. Robert Bentley after defeating the democrat by a good but not confortable margin, Bentley goes ahead and hires the democrat he just beat to his administration, we didnt want the democrat as governor, why do we want him anywhere near government? but thats pretty much whats going on down here.

    Democrats on the other hand ALWAYS looks for new fresh faces, and thats good, it keeps the party excited somehow, nobody knew who the peanut farmer from GA was or the Gov. of Arkansas or much less…the senator from chicago…

  • BA Cyclone

    Does it really matter if the GOP “takes control” if we do so with several clones of Mitch McConnell or Olympia Snowe?

    Particularly in actual RED states that Erick cites here, we need to PRESS local orgs to get ideological conservatives on our line for the general election.

    The movement is to get conservatives elected, not just Republicans.

  • BA Cyclone

    Does it really matter if the GOP “takes control” if we do so with several clones of Mitch McConnell or Olympia Snowe?

    Particularly in actual RED states that Erick cites here, we need to PRESS local orgs to get ideological conservatives on our line for the general election.

    The movement is to get conservatives elected, not just Republicans.

  • http://twitter.com/michael_s_grant msgrant

    Conservative, very smart, articulate, great family + Cuban heritage to connect with many Hispanics in Texas… why would we *not* want another ‘Marco Rubio-type’ candidate?

  • BA Cyclone

    Well, at least *I* am interested, and frankly I think for a true “red state” this is one conservatives should hope to get a solid conservative on the line for the general.

  • BA Cyclone

    Well, at least *I* am interested, and frankly I think for a true “red state” this is one conservatives should hope to get a solid conservative on the line for the general.

  • acat

    …and would proceed to infuriate conservatives for the following 2 years.

    Structured the way it is, the Senate takes a while to turn around… we replaced some RINOs in 2010 and will replace more in 2012 if we keep at it, but .. some of the Senators will still be “with us” only 50% or 60% or 70% of the time.

    Mew

  • ihateliberals

    so many people don’t understand even today that just because a candidate is Republican that doesn’t mean they are conservative. That is how so many of these RINO’s make it through the primaries and continue to be sent back to the Senate. Then you have people like Karl Rove, Dick Cheney out there speaking against conservatives and pushing the RINO’s at everyone. conservatives need a voice in the dark to lead Then from obscurity to the light. starting with Bush 41 until Bush 43 conservatives have been buried by the Republican Party. Michael Steele took the RNC right down to the dirt and now Priebus is so quite you could here a pin drop. The Tea party doesn’t even seem like a gathering now. They aren’t organized and they aren’t making very much noise. People need to be marching on the Capitol Steps right now to get Obamacare stopped. John Boehner made one lame attempt at repealing Obamacare and then just moved on to give away the candy store.
    The voices we do here riht now like Paul Ryan are putting the Conservatives in a bad light with the seniors. Even if Ryan is right about medicare tha tis the wrong fight to pick up right now. Seniors are going for it and if they should decide to vote on the bases of medicare being an issue, which they will, not only will the conservatives lose the Republicans will lose and may not even be able to hold the house let alone pick-up the Senate. There is no Cahmpion for the Conservatives like Reagan was in 1980. He had a message that hit home with people and he pounded it into them. People believed in him and once he performed what he said he would do he was unbeatable in 1984. The conservative message was so strong from Reagan that any Republican of the time that got the Parties nomination would win the 1988 election and Bush 41 did. Unfortunately for us Bush was a RINO. people were so wrapped up in Reagan they missed the Fact that Reagan didn’t endorse bush. Reagan and Bush never got along or saw eye to ey on anything. Bush was along to get votes from the South and he was just waiting out Reagan. with the lack of a strong message and the recognition problem i don’t see the conservatives gaining very much ground in 2012 and because of the lack of leadership from boehner I don’t think the Republicans are going to hold such a wide majority in the House.

  • rememberthealamo

    Yes, Roger Williams, former TX Sec of State under Gov Bush, is definately running. Has been sending out mailings for months now. I’d support Roger before I’d support Michael Williams. He’s done a lousy job as Chrm of the RR Commission, in my opinion. Has been far too lax in addressing gas pipeline safety issues which the RRC oversees.

  • rememberthealamo

    Michael Williams has too much baggage as RR Commission Chrm, has not done a good job in my opinion in the area of gas pipeline safety. ( yes that falls under the RR Commission, oddly enough – they really do need to change that name!), to name one area. Would take Roger Williams over Michael. Cruz has real potential. Dewhurst looks like a snake oil salesman.

  • ohiohistorian

    Josh is a spirited politician. But what we DON’T need in the US Senate is another Ohio lawyer. Let’s look for another profession other than that. Like prostitute, maybe. Or maybe we can find a comedian like Minnesota did.

  • ohiohistorian

    Josh is a spirited politician. But what we DON’T need in the US Senate is another Ohio lawyer. Let’s look for another profession other than that. Like prostitute, maybe. Or maybe we can find a comedian like Minnesota did.

  • williamjameson

    the country will be safer from radical policy assuming Obama wins in 2012. There’s still time for the gop to recruit suitable candidates in all states.

    The good news is there are several vulnerable dems.

  • Filibuster Keaton

    Most of this, I agree with, but you seem to be relying on second- or third-hand information for some states. Ken Buck shouldn’t be lumped in with Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell. Trey Grayson (not Greyson) shouldn’t be lumped in with Mike Castle and Charlie Crist. And Heather Wilson was the “Moderate” last time because she supported funding for military security. No one’s ever too Conservative for me, but the candidate claiming to be most Conservative isn’t always the best candidate. Case in point: Alan Keyes.