still not excited about any of them.

Erick,

I must politely ask why you write; “He won’t be the nominee, but he could be influential.” How do you know? Are you picking the nominee?

Journalists should not be prognosticators.

Thank you

I pretty much agree with what Erick wrote. The race is setting up as a match between Romney and the anti-Romney. Right now, that looks to be Bachmann. It had looked to be Pawlenty, but no more.

I do think Pawlenty’s campaign was mortally wounded during the debate because he allowed Bachmann to zoom past him and fill the anti-Romney slot. He’s been running for president for two years and hasn’t been able to generate any momentum. I don’t see that changing.

If this does become a two person race between Romney and Bachmann, I think that guarantees a big name jumps in the race. I’m not trying to knock what Bachmann represents, but I see it as totally unlikely she can win nationally. Romney also has big flaws and a lack of enthusiasm.

I just can’t see the big names pining away for 2016 passing on 2012 now that Obama is so easily beatable. I think Perry is the likely choice to jump into the race, but if he doesn’t I think Jeb will get into the race. He want’s to be president, but passing on 2012 means he might never get another chance.

Cain received for his May debate performance, because expectations were low for him. With expectations increased for him, Cain was okay this week. T-Paw had a lot of exceptations and didn’t live up to them. Thus the bad week for him. Bachmann had low expecatations. She made them and thus everyone is praising her. Next debate, the expectations will be higher for her.

The CNN debate was not a deal breaker for any of the candidates. It was just in the introductory phase. The real test will be the debates in November and December.

Newt’s has a new book to sell. I think Newt is staying in this race just to sell his books and DVDs. For those conservatvies who want Newt to leave the priamry race, then they should boycott Newt’s products.

Perry still needs to catch a break in Iowa. He won’t enter until after the straw poll. Good move. Still Bachmann and Pawlenty are going to fight in Iowa and Perry will have at least some trouble defending things like the hpv vaccine with social conservatives in Iowa. And New Hampshire doesn’t look like a receptive place for Perry. Fred Thompson tried to use South Carolina as a turnaround state. Enough said.

Pawlenty can fight through to the Iowa caucus. He gave Bachmann a big opening, but he’s far from done. If Pawlenty does do well in Iowa, Perry’s the one who is done.

On the other hand, Romney will do everything he can to help Bachmann at the Iowa straw poll and in the caucuses because Romney can use her to hurt Pawlenty. And in a Romney-Bachmann race, Romney will clean up in the blue and purple states. In a Romney-Bachmann fight, delegates won in places like New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania outnumber those in places like Georgia and Alabama.

And let’s see if Ryan, Bolton, or Guiliani get in and complicate things.

A blew past B. Y is collapsing. Z “looked presidential”. This sounds like the republican primary process is picking a president for the student council.

Speaking only for myself this is about substance, vision and experience.

Romney lacks substance, his words continually reveal a big government vision. If “independents” (read liberals who switch affiliation to mess about in the NH republican primary), were not able to vote in the Republican primary Romney’s numbers would look much worse. Republicans there are all to aware of the failings of the former governor from the socialist paradise to their immediate south.

While I’d love to see Paul riding roughshod over the federal reserve, he lacks the judgement (part of substance) and executive experience for the job.

Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, Santorum, and Perry are all possibles, but I want to see more from each. Out of that field, excluding Perry since he has yet to announce, this week I’d say that T-Paw is most likely to emerge with the nomination.

That said it’s way too early to count anyone other than Newt, Johson, and Paul out.

Rick Perry is leaning toward jumping into the 2012 Presidential race. David Dewhurst, the TX Lt Gov might jump into the US Senate race. Let’s say for the sake of debate, Rick Perry becomes President and Dewhurst becomes a TX Senator. Then who becomes TX Gov and TX Lt Gov?

I’m starting to think he’s never going to ever get traction in this race.

Pawlenty missed an opportunity by not going after Romney more forcefully on RomneyCare, but I don’t think it was nearly as bad as all the pundits are making it out to be. Pawlenty doesn’t do well as an attack dog, and I would rather GOP candidates focus their ire on Obama right now.

Pawlenty is usually around 5th or 6th place in polling despite running for President for nearly two years. Honestly, I’m more than a little perturbed that someone like a Herman Cain (who has never held elected office and frankly isn’t viable) is outpolling a two-term Governor of Minnesota that has arguably one of the most conservative records of any candidate running. It doesn’t speak well for our party that loud and colorful figures like a Trump can so easily get so much support by just spouting off a few slogans whereas here’s a conservative Governor that has a real record of achievement that has had electoral success in a Blue State can barely make a blip in the polls.

If no one else jumps in, I don’t think it’s going to even be close, Romney will win this primary going away. I like and respect Bachmann, and I think she’ll win Iowa, but I don’t see her being able to knock off Obama and my guess is most Republican voters will come to the same conclusion and overwhelmingly back Romney.

First of all, Bachmann destroyed Cain at the debates. With that said, I been a fan of both of these candidates’’ passion and ability to rouse a crowd- attributes necessary to beat someone as good at campaigning as Obama (know thy enemy, and don’t underestimate him). My only reluctance with Bachmann is that she has little experience running anything. I believe she would make a capable executive, but I am not sure an independent voter would “take her word for it”. Both of these candidates are sufficiently conservative, political outsiders, and demographically unique (which is a plus, whether we agree with identity politics or not). I’m having difficulty choosing between them; Cain has executive experience, but Bachmann is better at answering difficult questions “off-the-cuff”.

However, I guess that my internal debate is unnecessary if Perry gets in. I was sold on Perry when I heard that his plan to save America was to “pray and fast”. I know that sounds ignorant to the secular world, but I promise I have never been accused of being unintelligent. Also, it doesn’t hurt he has an established fundraising infrastructure and 10 years experience as governor of arguably the most economically successful state in the nation. He just has to lose the Texas accent…

As Cain’s numbers collapse, he abandons the Tea Party and forms a new “Pizza Party” with the aim of taking out Bachmann. It is discovered that security footage shows Bachmann, like Trump and Palin, eating pizza with a fork, thus ending her campaign. Palin and Trump are likewise prevented from entering the race. Newt gains steam through a grassroots facebook campaign, but ultimately ends up re-hiring staff. Unfortunately, they are plants from the Pawlenty campaign, and carry out another Newtiny in early January. Newt never recovers in Iowa and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Pawlenty, after having dropped out due to Rick Perry’s bid, recovers his recently liberated staff and jumps back into the race. (Perry, sadly, is caught with a live boy AND a dead girl. After a brief flirtation with uniting the Weiner coalition to unseat Obama in the Dem primary, he is offered a job as ambassador to China, and he accepts.) Rick Santorum is incessantly mocked by the media for his last name, and ends up flipping out on the Daily Show. He cusses out Stewart and his social conservative base never forgives him. As they say in politics, it’s not the quirky last name that counts, it’s appearing on Stewart’s show. Huntsman puts up a good fight, but Romney, recognizing the challenge from the RINO-Mormon wing of the party, spends beaucoup bucks to take him out. It is discovered that at one point Hunstman worked for the Obama administration (who knew?) and his campaign is over. Pawlenty tries to go after Romney, but nobody believes him, and he has to spend all his money to keep his staff from mutinying instead of running ads. Eventually he just falls asleep and misses one too many appearances on TV. After which he drops out and begins campaigning for VP. Finally, Ron Paul challenges Romney to a duel, which he foolishly accepts. Unfortunately, both candidates are killed. Ron Paul’s supporters, left without a hero, find a new cause in the only candidate remaining…

Gary Johnson wins the nomination.

Yep, that’s definitely how it’s going to go. This primary is over.