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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

How John Boehner Might Keep Obamacare Around Forever

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  July 21st, 2011 at 11:32 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

If the New York Times reports tonight are true, John Boehner may just be destroying any chance the Supreme Court would get rid of Obamacare and making it even more likely Obamacare will never be repealed.

Talk about negotiating with yourself. If Boehner gets what he wants — and Obama might just give it to him with enough rope to hang himself — the nation really is screwed.

Here’s the relevant part of the New York Times story:


But the president and Mr. Boehner were moving ahead with their plan, aides said, trying to agree on matters like how much new revenue would be raised, how much would go to deficit reduction, how much to lower tax rates and, perhaps most critical, how to enforce the requirement for new tax revenue through painful consequences for both parties should they be unable to overhaul the tax code in 2012.

The White House wants a trigger that would raise taxes on the wealthy; Mr. Boehner wants the potential penalty for inaction to include repeal of the Obama health care law’s mandate that all individuals purchase health insurance after 2014.

Here’s why this is important.

Headed to the Supreme Court are a volley of lawsuits questioning the constitutionality of the individual mandate. One of those cases ruled that all of Obamacare is unconstitutional because the individual mandate is.

If John Boehner gets that trigger, what do you think the odds are that the Democrats, before the Supreme Court can rule, triggers the trigger. They’d thereby save Obamacare by getting rid of the individual mandate and rendering a Supreme Court decision moot.

Now, that’s not to say I think the Supreme Court will throw out Obamacare. It all comes down to Anthony Kennedy. But I sure as heck don’t think we should give the Democrats a chance to preclude a Supreme Court decision. And given the chance, I suspect they’d take it.

Likewise, Republicans have long maintained that Obamacare must be fully repealed, not “fixed.” Boehner’s strategy would directly undermine that.

House Republicans were sent to Washington to repeal Obamacare and hold the line on spending. They’ve failed at the first, failed at the second, and now seem to be letting the Speaker embrace and expand that failure.

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  • amigag

    I was reading this article about 30 minutes ago. (11:30PMEDT)

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2011/07/21/congress-never-ever-cuts-spending/

    Then a few minutes ago I emailed this to someone:
    On that article, I think many in Congress don’t understand what they are doing and those that do are hoodwinking the ones that don’t know.

    Clearly if that NYT article is true as you say, then also it is clear that John Boehner is being hoodwinked.

    Unbelievable.

  • californiagold

    Not only do the democrats support ObamaCare, but many in the health insurance lobby do as well. ObamaCare is great for insurers because they will up to 30 million new customers while much of their profits are subsidized by the federal government. The key to making the scheme work is the individual mandate that forces individuals to pay for the premiums. If the individual mandate goes, so does the support of the health insurance lobby.

    Remember one important point, in 1993 HillaryCare failed because the health insurance lobby strongly opposed it because there was no individual mandate.

    In my opinion, whatever way the individual mandate is removed is just fine because ObamaCare will collapse under it’s own weight without the mandate. And when that happens the politicians will be forced to work out a real health reform deal that addresses the runaway cost issues that ObamaCare ignores.

    On a side note, I’m not so sure republicans should be putting all their faith in the courts to stop ObamaCare.

  • PaladinLostHour

    If the NY Times does indeed represent reality in this instance, we’re at the tipping point: the conservative project to redeem the Republican party will have failed, irrevocably, and the entire rotten edifice will have to be razed for any progress to be made.

  • amigag

    This 7,000 page Health Care law is much more than the Individual Mandate. Do you really think the W.H. is going to GIVE that away?
    For what? This is their signature piece of legislation.

    Who brought this into the discussion of CCB? Why muddy the water? The Democrats and all of the various Lobbyists wrote this debaucle and the Republicans were shut out of any and all of the talks. It was passed in the dead of night, behind closed doors. And now, John Boehner is trying to negotiate with something he knows nothing about? No, he’s being led into a trap if any of this is being discussed. He needs to understand he’s not dealing with the Boy Scouts here.

    I agree with Erick on this. I understood the one Judge ruled that the entire piece of legislation was Unconstitutional, not just part of it.

    Why do you think Obama didn’t want to talk to Eric Cantor, but John Boehner instead? Some people can be more easily hookwinked than others. This is a dangerous path that J.B. is being enticed into.
    This puts him in a position of weakness, whereas with the CCB he was in a position of strength.

    I’m not an Attorney, but can sense danger when it’s near.

  • izoneguy

    Remember how Pelosi treated Bush????

    Boehner needs some pointers from Nancy on how to deal with the other parties President.

    ObamaCare was written in such a way as to deal with these situations.
    The only solution for ObamaCare is the final one.

  • averagevoterdotcom

    support form the hc industry is moot.

    erick’s analysis is keen and correct.

  • Tbone

    he is a Congressional Patrician. It is that about which he cares, not you, not me, not even this Country. Damn his soul to Hell.

  • californiagold

    If the individual mandate is eliminated, ObamaCare won’t survive. Citizens won’t be required to join the system without the mandate, and because of the high cost of premiums, millions and millions of citizens won’t. When that happens, the health insurance industry will start losing money because they won’t have the base of customers they were relying on to offset the additional costs of the benefits they will be required to offer under ObamaCare.

    Don’t get me wrong, I fully support the repeal of ObamaCare, but unless republicans control the white house and congress with a filibuster proof senate, ObamaCare probably won’t be repealed legislatively.

    We can all hope that Justice Kennedy agrees with Roger Vinson’s opinion regarding the unconstitutionality of Obamacare, but that’s a huge leap of faith in one man who has yet to show that he has any inclination to repeal Obamacare.

  • californiagold

    Erick is pinning his entire argument on the hope that Justice Kennedy and four other justices will agree with the opinion written by Judge Vinson. To the best of my knowledge, so far Vinson is the only judge who has ruled that the entire ObamaCare law is void due to the individual mandate being unconstitutional and not severable. Other courts have ruled differently.

    The point is, if the mandate is eliminated, the health insurance lobby will put tremendous pressure on congress to eliminate ObamaCare, or at the very least, change the law significantly.

  • wbb1950

    A leader must be as chaste as Caesar’s wife. Otherwise, the opposition will use whatever indiscretions there are against him. That is precisely the modus operandi of the Obama Administration. And when Phil Griffin said we (meaning MSNBC narrowly, or big media more generally) are the insiders, the establishment of the Obama Administration he was not kidding. When big media and the Obama Administration could not force Hillary out of the primary suddenly an article appeared in Vanity Fair talking about Bill’s behavior and a few weeks ago there was talk of a big expose coming out in one of the tabloids about the Speaker but for some reason it never appeared to my knowledge. Whether or not that has any effect on the Speaker, who comes across to me as a trembling tower of tapioca or not I cannot say. I believe in Reagan’s formulaic response never speak ill of a republican, but let us at least be sure that the party we are talking about is truly a Republican and not just a Washington insider.. Besides, the fate of the country must supercede party discipline.

  • averagevoterdotcom

    I stand corrected.
    I agree re vinson also.
    I think scotus will deem components severable and not want to conclude the economics of the whole not doable/constitutional.

  • wbb1950

    Who was the son of one president and the grandson of another had this to say about power–and the Speaker is no exception: “The effect of power and publicity on all men is the aggravation of self, a sort of tumor that ends in killing the victim’s sympathies, a diseased appetite like a passion for drink or perverted tastes; one can scarcely use expression too strong to describe the violence of egotism it stimulates” And one of the more predictable effects is Potomac Fever which causes the victim to forget the needs of the people back home. Once upon a time, Boehner told me that he has a safe district, and they pretty much entrust him whatever he does. But today he is no longer just a Congressman–he is a national leader, and the people of the country as a whole are less inclined to give him or any leader carte blanche. His obligation is to fight and not to give in. McConnell has already given up the ghost. Once upon a time he told me that he did not like McCain because McCain is the darling of the New York Times. Now that he has ascended to that seat in the liberal pantheon I suspect he sees it differently from those lofty heights,

  • bk

    is setting up a trigger than enables them to raise taxes without having to go on record as voting to raise taxes.

    The Democrats will make sure any tax-raising trigger gets pulled.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    Although the rumor of a grand-deal [floated yesterday-p.m. by the NYT] was faulty, according to the FNC “all stars,” it was killed by Congressional D’s because of fear BHO was touching entitlements.

    There was no talk yesterday @ 6:38 p.m. EDT of ObamaCare, so this piece appears to arrive from “left-field” [as they say]; nevertheless, its import should be scrutinized for, if not now, the concept may arise again.

    Disclosure: I am very TeaPartyOriented [all branches], and would love to see BHO/Biden defeated by Perry/Rubio.

    Disclaimer: I am physician and SCOTUS-observer over the decades; every time the opportunity has arisen, I have weighed-in against ObamaCare.

    I would agree that Kennedy would likely vote against the Individual Mandate, but it would be GREAT to get rid of it ASAP; there is no “severability” and, thus, ObamaCare would collapse [like the proverbial souffle] for reasons aforementioned.

    Were this to occur, the $$$-factors would accompany its demise [$trillions$], greatly simplifying future interactions between BHO and the House-R’s.

    This would be a great prize, recognizing that future battles [such as the next budget] loom, and BHO would have suffered a fatal-blow to his major achievement.

    Raising the debt-ceiling while removing a major present/future cost-center, this would be a significant achievement that…not incidentally…would infuriate the D-base and prompt Dennis Kucinich to supplant relocation plans {to Oregon} and to mount a McCarthy-like challenge.

    Would we all not enjoy watching them justifiably implode, as Perry talks jobs/jobs/jobs?

  • bcomber38

    Baehner is a sorry butt.I wouldn’t trust him no matter what he did.He’s got to go.weeby,wobbly,creeper,chicken poop,creepiest of creeps.scaredy cat.low down dirty congressman.How are we going to get out of this morons actions?

  • gwalt

    Is indeed a disappointment.

  • charliesalmanack

    ….to repeal Obamacare: SCOTUS, and the 2012 election.

    Remember that juditicial restraint and deference to the legislature is a core tenet of conservative jurispruduce. I have no doubt that including this trigger reduces the probability of SCOTUS striking down Obamacare.

    This is a HUGE mistake.

    As is, by the way, any cuts to Medicare that the GOP agrees to that are funneled through the IPAB. This would be legislative action that Obama’s DOJ will point to in arguments that the parts of Obamacare have received ongoing political support from both parties.

    This is a HUGE potential mistake. Do NOT include it in any final deal.

    If Obama was fighting this in negotiations, then he was certainly acting in bad faith. Pull it out of any deal, and demand something else in it’s place.

  • gpclaw

    at least not as we know it today, but that doesn’t mean that the end of O-Care. Failed government programs don’t die, they just get more funding.

    The response to the failure of O-Care will be to push for full fledged universal healthcare, and more government involvement in the health care market, not less.

    The entire program needs to die, and it’s corpse should be left to rot on the side of the highway. Allowing O-Care a wounded O-Care program to limp gingerly into the future, only means that it will eventually heal itself into a larger, more menacing beast.

  • jiminga

    about a deal that doesn’t exist. And why should we pay any attention to the NYT?

    Nothing to see here….move along.

  • mutantone

    first it was the health care program spread out over ten years, the income start immediately, the payment for it is spread out over ten years? The debit crises the debit spread out over ten years the cost increased immediately ? now add them together and what do you get? Broke-busted-recession-ruination. Jut what the Obama Congressional Communist-Marxist want.

  • gunslingr45

    did not push hard enough to keep him from becoming speaker! There were better choices. Now we are ( . )

    Socialism billions dead, but they keep trying?..

  • liedtwo

    Think about this, the Constitution was written on four sheets of parchment paper. Counting all 27 Amendments there are 20 typed pages. None of the Amendments make a full page and many are single sentences long. Look at the First Amendment; in 45 words you get freedom of religion, press, assembly, speech, and to be able to petition the government for redress of grievances. The Constitution and the Amendments have been instrumental in guiding this country to greatness.

    Collectivistcare is tens of thousands of words and several thousand pages, it?s not to give you rights and freedoms but take them away from many. The “social planners” are subjecting the country to their vices, intemperance, immorality etc. These “reprobates” are the great sophists of the modern era, when they speak, it’s probably a lie. Control, control, control that’s all they seek, it’s for the betterment of society, we need to save the unwashed masses from the complete depredation of the planet. Purchase this car, this light bulb, buy this food, believe us when we tell you the “Constitution” is outdated and the “General Welfare clause” gives us complete authoritarian, I meant authority to pursue all our illicit decrees.
    The news is filled with what the government is doing or what they can do for you. How they are saving the country from bankruptcy by raising the debt limit, spending and printing more money, remember these policies are good for the country, we just don’t know it. Politicians talk about what they have accomplished for us, what they have done and will do for us.
    God, virtue, temperance, morality, justice and of course individualism and creativity is gone from the fabric of American society. Repairing Americas ills starts with ?WE’ not ‘THEM’.

  • avgjo

    see the same sort of declaration made against him that was made against McConnell a few days ago? That was heartening; even more heartening would be to see something of the same sort done in the direction of Boehner. He is a sell-out, a crybaby coward and apparently he’s more worried about his legacy with the political class than he is about the future of our nation. He must be removed politically. I hope you guys can effect that.

    Thanks for all you do.

  • BA Cyclone

    The last chapter has not been written quite yet.

  • ihateliberals

    Boehner has never had any intentions of getting rid of Obamacare. His feeble attempt back in January showed us that. What he did in January was to say look i tried and it failed. Where the Hell is the Tea Party. What is happening to our conservatives again. I don’t understand why the Tea party isn’t allover this and beating up Boehner on a regular basis. Do we conservatives need to form a whole different approach now that it seems the Tea Party has been turned to ice tea.

  • ihateliberals

    and that is once Obamacare gets into full force the insurance companies wil be destroyed because the Government will become the insurance company. The Companies think they are going to get 30 million more people and that isn’t going to happen. It’s like raising taxes to bring in more revenue. it doesn’t work that way. If people don’t buy insurance they will be put on the government plan. The government not the insurance company will be the insurer You said we have to get rid of the individual mandate what we really need to do is get rid of Obamacare and all of the communist that support it, Boehner included.

  • ihateliberals

    yelling about this and the entire RINO situation in the congress and the Republican Party. Has the Democrats and the Republicans been successful in stopping the rebellion against tyranny? Has our nation actually fallen without a shot being fired? This makes me sick to the stomach. My privilege is that I got to live in the greatest country to ever exist on the Earth and my sadness is that my children and grandchildren and the rest of my prodigy will never know what that was like. This new socialist government that is about to take over will not last as long as this free one has but before freedom is returned there wil be great suffering in the world. All of this canbe avoided if the conservatives and patriots of this country will wake-up and take control. We need to beat back this act form the left even though it appears they have the upper hand right now. we beat the British when they were the most powerful nation on the Earth at the time we can beat this time if we can only get and stay organized. I have been against a third party. I have thought tht the right direction was to ake the Republican party back. It appears that isn’t gong to happen so with the fact now that Obama most likely will win a second term anyway it is time for the third party to emerge. May God help us.

  • ihateliberals

    and the fact that it might collapse Obamacare. The problem is that the passage of Obamacare by the Democrats was to put it all out there to see what sticks. If the I. M. is removed Obamacare will still be sitting there. Then some unsuspecting moment with a Democrat in control again the mandate can be reintroduced and we are back in business with Obamacare. You have to realize that Obamacare has nothing to do with healt Care. Health Care is just the coverup for the real intent of Obamacare and that is to control the population. If we don’t repeal Obamacare it will bring us down eventually.

  • Flagstaff

    http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2011/01/26/bobby-schilling-r-il-17-calls-presidents-bluff/#comment-47700

    Following a Moe Lane column, I commented in opposition to piecemeal changes to ObamaCare, in that case the requirement for tax filers to send 1099 forms to anybody they paid $600 or more for goods or services (it was repealed, IIRC). I noted that repeal was counterproductive for many reasons,

    “Bringing that [ObamaCare] bill up again and again and again and again [for repeal] does at least two good things. First, it keeps the errors of the bill and Obama front and center as a topic of discussion, especially by the Tea Party. It reminds everybody that it was forced through Congress and signed by the President WHEN THEY ALL KNEW THE PEOPLE OPPOSED IT. Do you think that the Tea Party Movement will go away if Obamacare and its lies and excesses are pushed in their faces again and again? What will happen is they will remain energized. They don?t like the bill better now that it?s passed, THEY HATE IT MORE.

    Second, it keeps the opposition to ObamaCare focused on only one thing?the WHOLE thing. Repeal efforts aren?t fragmented, they are concentrated. And don?t forget, opposition to Obamacare was a big reason Republicans gained 60-plus seats in Congress in November [2010]. Continuing the fight proves the Republicans were sincere when they ran with repeal as a major plank in their platform.

    If parts of it start withering away, some of the OPPOSITION will wither away as well. Eliminate the mandate, and the court cases evaporate. Eliminate the 1099, and some opposition from small businesses will evaporate. Also, without the mandate and the 1099, the bill is no longer a ?money-maker? for the government?it adds to the deficit. There is more, but you get the idea.

    So if I were General of the Republican Army, my strategy would be to keep hitting the administration with ?complete repeal.? That would be the objective.

    My tactics would be to hit with a bill to repeal at times when it?s most embarrassing for the President….”

    I don’t know that today is such a time, but it might be. What better time to point out the costs of ObamaCare, that it is a huge budget-buster, not the moneymaker it was sold as?

    But putting that aside, the worst part of ObamaCare is not the 1099 requirement, the unconstitutional mandate to buy, or the multiplicity of waivers that are being granted to enable selected Obama-friendly businesses to ignore the law. The worst part is that it turns control of both the health care industry and the health insurance industry over to government bureaucrats, green-eyeshade-wearing gnomes working in the bowels of the administration, known only to the Secretary of HHS, issuing orders, rules, and regulations unseen by the light of day until they emerge as diktats to be obeyed by all in their purview, “or else.”

    Pecking away at pieces of the law will NOT eliminate this aspect of this scourge on the earth. The rule-making sections will not be touched, implanted in law like an alien in John Hurt’s chest, waiting for a chance to emerge, regardless of the damage they do to the free-enterprise benefits of the health care system.

    BOEHNER, NO! BAD CONGRESSMAN! BAD! LEAVE IT!

  • deduke

    Who and why did the Republicans elect Boehner to be the speaker of the house? It is obvious that he is not up to the task.

  • swami7774

    Boehner just told Obama, in effect, to go soak his head.

  • lineholder

    As a conservative, I support full repeal of Obamacare. As someone working in the health care industry…I support doing something now rather than waiting. Why? Did you read Steve Maley’s piece about BOEMRE? If so, did you catch this comment…

    “Their policies are not just an inconvenience to a few companies. They are permanently damaging infrastructure which will be difficult to impossible to rebuild. That seems to be their intent.”

    The rulings that have been coming out of DHHS are not only for the purpose of speeding up the pace for implementation of Obamacare but also to bring about economic change that won’t be easily undone.

    The health care industry compromises 17% of our GDP and employs 10.7% of working Americans. This doesn’t include the number of people employed in the private health insurance industry. Then there are also peripheral industries that are related to health care, such as pharmaceuticals, medical device manufacturers, etc.

    This admin has crushed our O&G industry in our nation. Deliberately. Under the guise of “renewable energy progress”. Why should anyone think that health care will be any different?

    “Eventually”, you said. If something doesn’t happen to slow down O-care soon, the same will be true about health care, and it’s happening much more quickly than we might want to acknowledge.

  • RealQuiet

    n/t

  • sccrenny

    (and I never understood why it was written this way), the law itself explicitly states that the individual mandate is not severable from all of the other parts. I’ll see if I can find something specific on this.

  • sccrenny

    I should have googled this before the first comment. The law was written WITHOUT a severability clause, which proponents of Obamacare questioned after it passed. I remembered the discussion, but not the particulars.