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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

But How Does Your Hand Improve?

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  July 27th, 2011 at 09:24 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The Kristol fans want to know how our hand improves if we reject the Boehner plan. First, it is worth pointing out what Bill Kristol noted back at the first part of July:

“It sounds as if it’s heading towards a deal,” Kristol said. “It’s not a deal that I’m going to like I suspect, and think I it’s going to be a bad deal for conservatives and Republicans but I think they’re intimidated,” Kristol said. “The president has been running around talking about corporate jets and the rich, and how the sky is going to fall unless Republicans cave. And I think they’re getting ready to cave in a pretty big way on Sunday.”

Basing it on what Republicans leaders have said publicly, Kristol forecast that defense spending cuts, tax increases and other cuts would be dressed up to be more than they really are in the end. And that would lead to a conservative revolt against Republicans.

“So great, we have a Republican House, and they are going to agree to the huge defense cuts, tax increases, phony spending cuts and increased debt,” Kristol said. “I think there will be a huge rebellion among conservatives in the country if Republicans sign on to this deal.”

That’s pretty much what we’re going to get. And it is going to come in the form of a super committee. If nothing else, holding out for scrapping the super committee to avoid massive tax hikes is a better plan.

I dare say that suddenly Boehner could get more support if he scrapped the super committee now.

But more so, good policy is good politics. This Boehner plan is terrible policy — made more so by the fact that it is the third GOP plan to no Democrat plans and the GOP is continuing to compromise with itself instead of the Democrats.

Lastly, it is not for these outside groups to govern. It’s for them to say what is and is not conservative — to point to what the right thing is and let the elected guys decide how far away from true north to drift. When the GOP deviates from conservatism to lock in high growth rates of government, conservatism loses. And that is exactly what the Republicans are doing. Boehner’s plan presumes the size and scope of the federal government will not go back to historic norms — norms that existed until Barack Obama became President.

Yes, I think the deal will improve. I think the deal will improve even if the only improvement is dropping the super committee. But more so, I think the GOP is being driven by fear and until they overcome that fear they will be in no position to negotiate with the Democrats. Their first step, however, is to stop negotiating with themselves. After all, as Kristol and others are so readily willing to point out — the GOP only controls one house of one branch of the federal government.

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  • blh1976

    That’s the question I ask my fellow conservatives on Capitol Hill, including our respected Speaker. You were sent to DC with marching orders to stand against the excesses of President Obama’s agenda; you weren’t sent there to simply hold on to power. Remember, we tried that in the past, and 2006 gave us Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, Harry Reid as Senate Majority leader, and the 2010 shellacking from the current commander-in-chief.

    You’ve made many promises, and thus far, you’ve not given us results, other than a few show-votes. Action’s required, and it’s required now. So, I ask, if not now, when?

  • dkm466

    Just once, I’d like to see you cut to the chase. You keep posting over and over about the Repubs. Why don’t you say it like this:

    Corruption in Washington is at an all time high with no end in sight. Old school republicans are cutting deals with Tea Party Freshmen to get a Washington Spending Bill. The 3rd bill will get crammed downs the public’s throats with little or no debates.

    Its simple. We are dealing with corruption and 10 different stories don’t change the script. Boehners 3 different schemes or 20 different plans won’t change the outcome. Why keep putting different lipsticks on the pig.

    Ever wonder why Ron Paul gets no Air Time during one of this scam? He will tell you straight up Washington is Stealing You Money.

  • Waderic

    Let me lay it out as I understand it:
    The goal: We need to raise our debt limit so that we don?t lose our credit rating and ?default?? if not to creditors, then to the people expecting money in our own country.

    The plan: We cut approx. $840B over 10 years?. Boehner might up it back to $1.2T after the CBO report. If this passes, we can borrow more, until April, possibly get tax increases from the commission and probably still lose our credit rating.

    What we get: $1.2B in cuts over 10 years. Losing AAA rating costs us ~$100B/year on our national debt and it also hurts our economy by raising borrowing rates for everyone.

    Total: We may gain $200B in cuts (20 days of spending) over the next 10 years, but by raising interest rates and borrowing more, we no doubt come out underwater.

    But yeah… quit crying about it. Get in line. It’s a good deal.

  • carolina

    If the charter of the commission is limited to spending cuts only, then we would have some protection.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    I initially disagreed with you, but with every minute that goes by, and the more we learn about the Boehner plan…I am with you.

    There is no reason to accept this after months of arguments and political hits. If we don’t make real cuts, even if suboptimal, then why bother with this whole process?

    It is time to take a stand.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    First, remember that as originally envisioned they were simply the return of budget SURPLUSES to the American people because many economists feared that the continued use of those surpluses by government would distort markets and investments and since we don’t have surpluses to return these days their original intent is gone. Second, every single proposal I have seen in regards to taxes that has any chance of getting anywhere involves eliminating deductions and LOWERING overall rates keeping the projected revenues (projecting being very difficult) roughly neutral (to a maximum of only 10% being used for deficit reduction under Simpson-Bowles). I simply do not see these “massive tax hikes” coming anytime soon (unless you are a hedge fund manager with a million dollar mortgage living in New York City with 5 kids under 16 and your own corporate jet). For the majority of us living in the midwest/south/non-east coast/CA/Chicago, we will likely see a tax cut (since we are subsidizing those from high tax areas already). I support free markets and thus I support a tax code that has no market distorting deductions etc.

    As for the “commission”, you are probably right that it won’t do much (although I think tax reform is a possibility), but any cutting of government spending that it does do will be good and I do believe we will at the very least get some chained-CPI fix to the government budget (which has an enormous effect long term) and limited means testing out of it.

  • Whacker77

    Fortunately, the Boehner plan is going to get better, but we must pass something. Jim Jordan and the crowd may feel they can pull their TARP antics again, but at what cost?

    If they swallow their pride and vote on something good, but not great, they’ve defeated Obama. He will be crippled in 2012. He will lose to Rick Perry or Mitt Romney. In short, we will have the White House, Senate, and House back.

    Republicans don’t control all levers of government. They have one chamber of the Congress. Despite that, they’ve dominated the terms of the debate. Accept victory for goodness sakes once Boehner’s bill is reworked.

    I appreciate Erick sounding the alarm, but this all or nothing course is what got us terrible Senate candidates in NV and DE. If you throw in CO, we could have had three more votes in the Senate. Instead, we were beaten because Angle and O’Donnell, two really bad choices.

    I want the whole nine yards like everyone else, but we can’t do that until 2013. Let’s accept that fact now and work towards making it happen in 2013.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    that usurp the authority of the full congressional body

  • __t_i_m_o_t_h_y__

    Boehner’s plan is against a 7% baseline increase.
    Boehner’s plan increases spending.
    Boehner’s plan increases the debt.

    The only two plans that do not increase spending are The Penny Plan and Cut Cap and Balance.

    We have to hold the line against Boehner and the Rhino’s now as well.

    Hold the line.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I simply do not see these ?massive tax hikes? coming anytime soon (unless you are a hedge fund manager with a million dollar mortgage living in New York City with 5 kids under 16 and your own corporate jet).

    You say this as if you think it is fine to soak the rich. Is that really what you mean?

  • Aaron Gardner

    Hard to take you seriously.

  • JSobieski

    Not heightened progressivity, which is what would happen if the Bush cuts are revoked for upper income folks.

    The Bush tax cuts were NOT originally envisioned as a return of surplusses—they were enacted because the .com bubble had popped and the economy was not in great shape.

    We agree generally that lowering rates and eliminating the gimics (revenue neutral) is the way to go. Until that happens, the Bush tax cuts should stay. Even when that happens, the reductions should be made to the Bush rates as a baseline.

  • bigredone

    We waited for this fight. If we wait again, where is the line in the sand?

    Will there ever be a line in the sand? HOLD THE LINE!

  • ghostship

    The House has already passed something called the CC&B. It’s the Senate who has said that’s not good enough for them to even vote on and demanded the House come up with something better or they’ll default. This has many in the GOP running around in panic. They are willing to pass anything because they are so scared of the idea of losing.

    We need to tell them to go ahead and do it. Call their bluff because they are bluffing. They may hate CC&B but it’s a cakewalk compared to actually having Uncle Sam’s credit card eliminated.

    If they are not bluffing then at least we will finally get a balanced budget.

    If we are not willing to risk defeat we will never achieve victory.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    was a big mistake. Everyone should have skin in the game.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    it is the reality of our tax code. If you live in Ohio with an average Ohio house and a “normal” source of income with no kids you pay a significantly higher effective tax rate than the example I gave (holding income amount equal). The code is simply absurd.

  • sarg01

    Any committee report still has to be approved by Congress. I’m pretty confident no substantive tax increase can pass the House.

  • izoneguy

    to bail out the Wimperor in Chief.

    This situation has been caused by Obama and his Marxists pals,
    let them all hang together.

    The Republicans everyday should say: We passed CC&B.
    That’s it.

  • http://jhpruitt.blogtownhall.com/ kipling

    According to Politico:

    “Scrambling for votes on his troubled deficit package, Speaker John Boehner told GOP lawmakers Wednesday morning to ?get your ass in line? behind his debt ceiling bill, saying the Senate will fold and pass it.

    ?This is the bill,? Boehner said in a closed-door meeting of House Republicans on Wedneday morning. ?I can?t do this job unless you?re behind me.?

    Citation at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/60022.html#comments

    Let me be the first voter to tell Boehner to get his a– in line. He works for me not Mr. Obama. Some leadership.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    1) I do favor a flat (or flatter) tax code (ie Simpson_Bowles or flatter).

    2) The Bush cuts (well tax cuts in general) were being discussed well before the dot com bubble popped as a way to efficiently use the surplus without distorting other markets. It was a campaign idea of Bush (prior to us knowing dot com was going to collapse) and was invoked by the Republican Congress as an alternative to Clinton’s use of the surpluses long ago.

    3) I think the baseline for any new system should be about 18% of GDP at full employment.

  • patman2108

    I don’t understand this logic being spouted around the media.
    Simply put, the US wants its credit card increased. The House has the power to decide if/when that increase occurs. Dangle the $2T to the Dems and say vote and pass the BBA in the Senate and we’ll give you the $2T increase. No passage, no money. After August 2nd, when their social programs start shutting down, they’ll be an uproar to get the money anyway, anyhow. CCB is the only way.

  • gekster

    to spend less, as opposed to tax more.
    We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.

  • acat

    6eorge, you’ve nailed it.

    Letting the lower half (well, less than half .. narrowly) off the hook on supporting the government leviathan is too close to letting them vote for bread and circuses…. that is, it is a deadly wound to our republic.

    Those who do not know history have damned the rest of us to repeat it.

    (and those who do know it but seek a Cloward-Piven reaction … well …)

    Mew

  • 6eorge Jetson

    but afterward, he lost me.

  • Whacker77

    Obviously all missed the point. I know the House passed CC&B, but the Senate is not going to pass it. Accept reality.

    All I’m saying is Republicans in the House must accept the fact they don’t control everything.

    Still, a bill that establishes cuts and no tax increases as the way to go is a major win for conservatives. More importantly, it completely wounds Obama.

    Rick Perry will beat Obama in a landslide if this is handled correctly. If they just continue to say no, considering we have just one chamber, Obama wins.

    Let’s establish the premise now so we can do the real deal in 2013. Right now, we’re following the path that gave us Angle, Buck, and O’Donnell.

  • Paul Seale

    Erick,

    You are correct that one gains strength through good policy, and that clearly the plan as presented yesterday was not the best deal.

    Boehner, to his credit, changed the bill to make sure it meets the CBO estimates.

    Would I like the committee to go away? Yes, very much – or at least have language which restricts its power so it does not abuse power.

    However, it is irresponsible to call on law makers to drive the country to the brink in an effort to get 100% of what we want.

    Most people in this part of the country, while voting for fiscal sanity, did not seek to “shut it all down” and are pretty irritated at the moment.

    Irritated at the fact that Democrats refused at first refused to consider any proposal without real cuts and just wanted to hike taxes.. now I hear rumblings (which I undersand and feel to an extent my self) that if there is a govt shut down – that they may reconsider their vote in the future.

    In short, Democrats over played their hand by believing that 94 was not the result of attempt to ram health care down our throats – and found that out in 2010. We can over play our hand as well by believing it is a okay to shut down the government or allow President Obama to push our country into default.

    To do so is irresponsible and our Representatives would not be doing their jobs.

    Fred Thompson said it best yesterday – take our chips and walk away with a win.

    We can play this out through 2012 and win the Presidentcy and Senate and press for CCB.

    Krauthammer explains the process beautifully in this video: http://is.gd/n3F40y

    Lastly, I hope and pray that we will be able to mend our internal wounds before next year. If we do not and decide to “primary” people who may vote for Boehners plan, then we truly become “proobama” conservatives.

  • gekster

    we are getting alot of people blaming our problems on conserrvatives that lost thier races.
    No one looks at all the conservatives that were elected at the local, state, and national levels. It was a HUGE sweep.

    Why arn’t people talking about the conservatives that won.

    Putting the blame on those that lost will do nothing to get our leadership to grow a spine, and get them to do what we sent them to Congress to do.
    And whats wrong with telling OUR representitives to hold the line on spending, to not cave in to presumed fears.

    It is getting lamer by the minute.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Pretty simple really.

  • Carner_York

    I think what people are missing about the committee is that the House can reject any recommendation. Boehner knows that nothing good is likely to come from the committee just as he knows that no significant spending cuts between now and November 2012 are achievable with Obama in the WH. The committee nonsense is merely a sop to the Dems to make it easier to pass the Senate.

    As Boehner has said, the GOP needs to concentrate on what is achievable and that is – prevent a long term deal that will help Obama, prevent tax hikes and keep the national discussion focused on spending cuts and smaller government.

  • acat

    Suppose, just suppose, that we’re playing “chicken” for titles to the cars.

    That is, whoever turns out first forfeits their ride.

    The worst case scenario isn’t crashing. The worst case is that the opposing team drive away with two cars, and we have to walk back.

    This is what bothers me about your whole argument, Paul. You’re assuming our Reps can, like Brave Sir Robin, run away and live to fight another day.

    I’m telling you, have told you, and will go on telling you that compromising on this is handing a campaign issue to both a primary challenge by the Tea Parties – and while that’s a good thing in my opinion, it’s also resources that could be better used taking seats away from Dems – and it’s handing a victory to the Dems at a time when they’re getting depressed .. and depressed Dems going into 2012 works to our advantage.

    In short, Paul, your focus is too narrow. You’re seeing the battle but missing the war.

    Look around. It isn’t just about this issue, it’s about the cascade of events that follow as well.

    Mew

  • 6eorge Jetson

    of the 111th Congress.

    They’re not the Bush Tax Cuts anymore.

  • gekster

    he won’t see it.
    A tree would comprehend that before he would.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    My basketball coach used to say that it’s better to go 100mph and make a few mistakes than to play slowly and not-to-lose, which inevitably leads to losing.

    The enthusiasm that got us +64 & +6, I’ll take that anytime.

  • http://www.sheetanchor.org Sheet Anchor

    the more spending is out of control. The government has taxed, and then borrowed, and now spent us into oblivion. We need to reduce the tax burden on people who work and earn income, and create wealth.

    The size of the government must be cut, and cut now. Everyone who understands basic economics knows that there are only two people who pay taxes – workers and consumers. Last November, the workers and consumers said “Enough! Cut the spending.” Taxes should be as low as possible across the board. But step one is to immediately stop the wreckless, nation-destroying spending.

  • bk

    Who thinks any Democratic Senator is going to vote during an election year for anything that cuts any entitlement programs? You can forget any adjustments to SS COLAs and anything to do with Medicare/Medicaid any anything else that comes anywhere near any sort of entitlement reform.

  • http://www.sheetanchor.org Sheet Anchor

    rushing to the battle lilke minutemen the nation would already be history.

  • ghostship

    The speaker’s plan is not a win.

    It’s quite telling that you reiterate that the Senate is not going to accept CC&B so WE must compromise our principles yet the same argument is never applied to the Democrats. I don’t hear anyone saying that Reid’s plan can’t pass the house and THEY need to compromise.

    It’s just us Conservatives who must ALWAYS bend to their will but there is NEVER a call for them to bend to ours.

    Well I’m saying what a lot of real Conservatives are thinking. It’s past time WE stand OUR ground and DEMAND some concessions from them.

    If not now then when? If we don’t do it now we never will.

    HOLD THE LINE! STAND AND FIGHT!

  • funwithknives

    but isn’t part of this game of chicken probably going to include BHO showing his cards? Why is he so intrangisent,on NOT giving Americans His Plan? What about that OL’ Openess and Tranparency he rattled on so long about? Who in the GOP leadership is calling him out on this and his Promise to be so “Inclusive”? Demonizing a majority of Tax Paying Citizens repeatedly, is hardly “inclusive”, but is surely Transparent to a layman.
    Barry has been playing Chicken with virtually every part of our Country,Economy and Traditions since the instant he took the oath.This part of the Game is a no-brainer. Call Him Out and see what’s in The Cards. Show him as the Poseur/incredibly shallow SCHMUCK , that he proves ,(daily) he is. Does this ask too much?

  • acat

    They don’t look like much, but they never turn aside.

    Mew

  • gekster

    they don’t talk much, don’t think much,
    but they hold thier position better than a congresscritter.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    That’s the simple answer. All the commission does is come up with another proposal. To make sure the proposal is good, put good people on the team.

  • http://www.sheetanchor.org Sheet Anchor

    which will work to the Democrats advantage during an election season. Moreover, if the House Republicans will not hold the line, why should anyone believe they will ever hold a line? They have demonstrated time after time, as documente by Erick in earlier post that they promise the next fight is the fight that matters, and when that battle arises, just like now, they start justifying and backpeddling from holding any line.

    The Republicans need to start acting like they have some courage and tell the Democrats in the Senate, the only deal is CCB and BBA now. Otherwise, we will let it all go down now, if it is to go down.

    We, conservatives, and the Tea Party, gave the Republicans control of the House to stop Obama and save the country at all costs now! Stand firm and strike hard now. Send CCB back to the Senate; send Ryan’s budget back to the Senate. Send a BBA over to the Senate. Yes, the Dems always believe the Republicans will cave – because they always do! Time to do the unexpected – and stand firm, and take the offensive!

    This is a war for the country. Conservatives may be in the minority in the government. But all the power needed rest firmly in our hands. The liberals, (yes “liberals”) who are determined to fundamentally transform America can only do what we allow them to do now. The American people are with the House conservatives. Time to stand up for what is just and right for a change.

    And where are the so-called Republican Presidential candidates in this fight? It seems that the only courage on this matter being shown is by 2 Republican women, namely Congresswoman Bachmann, and Governor Palin, who is not officially a candidate. Where are all the rest? Are they leading from behind? That’s not leadership – it’s called fear – something we do not need at this critical juncture in this nation’s history if it is to be saved. We are in desperate need of moral courage. Call those House freshman – all of them; and tell them to keep holding the line.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Yes, the House and Senate can reject any deal. This is why the fear of tax increases or a ‘bad plan’ coming out of the commission is a bit overwrought.

    If the Congress doesnt pass anything, that means they have another debt ceiling bump in the road. Back to another standoff. THAT is why Obama hates the idea. He wants to skate through the next election.

    We need to see reality here: We will not get a good reform plan out of the Reid Senate. The BEST we can do is a watered-down amount of spending reductions NOW, while avoiding blunders like tax increases.

    The Fred Thompson point of view:

    ” We will never achieve entitlement or tax reform with a doctrinaire liberal in the White House. Any agreements to do so in ?out years? would probably be unenforceable even if agreement were achieved. And we can only do so much while controlling one half of one branch of government. Ladies and Gentlemen of the House Republicans, you have laid some great groundwork to rectify both of those situations. Now it is the time to accept a well-won victory and move on.”

    Translation: Boehner’s cr8ppy watered-down version of CCB is the best we can do under these circumstances.

    I think this is only the FIRST (wait, second) of several standoffs, the next will be FY2012.

  • bk

    Heck, there are 23 Dem Senators up for election next year who’ve already told Reid to take tax hikes off the table. They don’t want to vote on ANYTHING next year, be it entitlement reform or tax reform. That’s why Reid is desperate to get ALL of it off the table now through 2013.

  • acat

    (but when you poke into conversations, ya gotta use puns!)

    So far, the closest I’ve seen to anyone calling out Obama, short of the “You Lie!” yell by the Rep from South Carolina whose name I’ve misplaced, and the mouthed “not true” by one of the Supreme Court justice, would be what spokesmoron Carney got hit with a day or two ago… lots of journos asked “What’s the white house plan?” at a presser.

    That indicates, to this cat, that the tide – as it did back when Gingrich blinked – is turning. People *are* asking what Obama’s plan is, and are starting to realize that .. there isn’t one.

    I hope that leads to a realization that the emperor has not a stitch of clothing on .. but I’m not holding my breath. Lincoln applies – some of the people will remain fools (or fooled.. same net-net) all of the time.

    Mew

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    by paying for the entitlement programs through payroll taxes (which are now almost 1/2 of all taxes collected). To make the argument that the lower half pay nothing and then tie that to entitlement reform is simple not a good comparison. While yes, everyone should have a stake in government, it is only through our division of tax revenue sources that they do not (ie it is more semantics than reality).

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    through suggesting both means testing and using chained-CPI. Of course if I was king I would take a much more radical approach to spending, but I am not, so i only focus on the cuts that are possible in today’s environment and that society will likely accept.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    they spent too. It is not like government spending has been very well correlated to revenue over the last 30 years.

  • acat

    What part of “pay no income tax” was unclear to you?

    They. Don’t. Pay. Income. Tax. Nothing withheld. Zero. Nada.

    In many cases, the credits exceed the amount they owe, and so they’re filing 1040ez to get a “refund” that they never contributed in the first place!

    Let me make this even simpler. They’ve voted themselves bread and circuses. If you really don’t see what’s wrong with that, then .. your education is sorely lacking, and there’s not enough common knowledge with which to have a conversation.

    Mew

  • 6eorge Jetson

    Including payroll taxes the United States has the most progressive household taxes in the world.

    Bush steepened the slope. And note that while household taxes do include payroll taxes, they do not include Value-Added-Taxes, which hits the lower class even harder in Europe as a pass-through consumption tax.

    If the Dems were intellectually honest about raising taxes fairly, instead of just trying to grab themselves some free money from a source that represents only a tiny percentage of the voters, they would be advocating for tax increases across-the-board. (Silly me, even considering that the Demhats would consider anything other than a power grab in their advocacy efforts.)

    As Benjamin Franklin said

    ?When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.?

  • snowshooze

    He absolutely will not back CCB, he absolutely will not stand with the conservatives, he comes out and sells out. Thinks McConnel and Boehner are great.
    So… if you want to get good and mad… go to FOX and watch part two of that interview.
    I could just choke him. The Idiot.

  • snowshooze

    And crazy too. I am sorry, it has affected me…

  • snowshooze

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/1083216020001/which-debt-plan-has-hope-of-passing-part-1/?playlist_id=86858#/v/1083216024001/which-debt-plan-has-hope-of-passing-part-2/?playlist_id=86858

  • gekster

    He is not in campaign mode, and just as liberal as ever.
    He wants to be liked, not strong conservative.