More Proof It Is A Trap

silentcal2012

Is it so damaging to the liberalism that its worse than the Ryan Roadmap and Cut, Cap and Balance, or is it a piece of fluff that does nothing as many here claim? I cant keep track of the criticism anymore. Just all over the map.

bk

“Once the vote is over, Speaker Boehner needs to begin immediately working on a way out of the mess Cantor created. If he doesn?t, we could be in big trouble. There are dozens of possible compromises ? he just has to take one. Reid, McConnell and the White House have plenty of options.”

In other words, the Democrats don’t really need to do anything other than to keep saying no and the House GOP will have to accept Harry Reid’s blank sheet of paper.

Screw ‘em – all Reid cares about is doing nothing and saving 23 Dem Senators from having to vote on anything next year because it could hurt their reelection chances.

Carner_York

CC&B wasn’t voted on so how can you say it had any better chance of passing the Senate than the new plan? Reid is controlling the dialogue.

I suspect you’re right that in the final hour, Reid will send a drastically altered bill back to the House. Ryan’s biggest fear as he expressed on Hannity’s show yesterday is that 40 moderate Repubs will vote for it. I don’t doubt it but it won’t be Boehner’s fault any more than if Reid had done it with CC&B last week.

http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

he is saying is that if CCB is dead and unworkable because Dems won’t play ball, then why go for a much watered down bill that the Dems oppose just a vociferously. All that does is attenuate our leverage to negotiate. Once Reid sees that Boehner came down 100 levels from CCB, he knows that he will come down further.

In other words, instead of a compromise CCB, we will get a compromise version of Bohener’s plan. Additionally, unlike CCB, this won’t forestall a credit downgrade anyway. So what exactly do we benefit from exhibiting even more fear to the Dems. They are just taking our concessions one by one and demanding more.

There is no evidence that leadership will deny their demands. The reason is simple. If they have a terrible fear of the Aug. 2 deadline, and communicate that to the Dems in a quite vivid manner, there is no reason why they will go to the brink for any revised plan. The Dems will use their fear to negotiate hard, until there is nothing left, or until Boehner finally keeps his a#$ on his own line.

http://www.riversedgealliance.org Robin Smith

With the “Power of the Purse” specified to the US House, the Senate should have no “veto” authority through a parlimentary tactic to table the Cut, Cap & Balance legislation that PASSED the US House with bipartisan support.

While the GOP elites, the statist Democrats and talking heads scream for a “new plan” from the House, the solution is to vote on the one that passed but was vetoed by a partisan hack, Harry Reid.

It’s time for the Senate to vote on CCB.

I hope this little cluster of chaos is a lesson to the GOP Majority in the House. The Continuing Resolutions should’ve been the first step to defunding Obamacare & cutting agency spending across the board. This delay in leadership has resulted in a mess.

clintonformccain

Now RedState is turning to Chuck Shumer for advise on legislative strategy….

Fla Mom

I just watched on C-Span a large chunk of the freshman class hold a press conference to say they’re voting for Boehner’s bill. The fix is in; Pelosi’s press conference comes next, then Boehner at 1:30pm. They’re getting rolled again, which means taxpayers are. “We were sent here to git ‘er done,” one said; get what done, one might ask. When asked if they wanted to revisit this issue in six months, they all smiled and nodded. To what end, I asked myself. I’m proud to say my representative (Steve Southerland) doesn’t seem to be capitulating.

Fla Mom

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

Who is it a trap for? I think the Democrats, should they screw the pooch and actually not pass a bill the House passes.

So if the Democrats will kill it anyway …

All this tells us is that a vote AGAINST the Boehner plan is a vote for “please hang the default on me”.

All a vote FOR the Boehner plan does is turn that around “Look, the GOP bent over backwards and still the Senate did nothing.” It becomes arrows in the blame-game quiver. We are far better off politically showing the 2 votes for possible deals rather than a failed vote, which makes the narrative “the Tea Party killed compromise” easy to convey.

The conservative opposition to the Boehner plan has served a useful signalling purpose to Reid and the Democrats. If conservatives vote for this, its as far as they can go. Democrats ignore such signals at their own risk.

Such a scenario will NOT be 1995, and that may be the biggest trap of all. President Obama, should we get to default or shutdown via his own veto, will actually seal his own fate wrt re-election.

So Obama wont veto. Senator Reid may/will stop it.

FINE. Speaker Boehner and the House have every right to stand back and watch.

silentcal2012

Liberals compromising with a Cap Act and a BBA is like the Tea Party compromising with single payer health care, like Reagan compromising with socialism.

On the onehand, people like to pretend they understand leftists, and talk about people like Saul Alinsky. They warn, preach about the zeal and intentions of leftists.

On the other hand, they argue like they live in autpian, conservative echo chamber, where people who have made it their life’s work to expand government will just come groveling back to Boehner and sign on to the things they spent their whole life fighting.

The expansion of the federal government is Obama’s life work. Socialism is his faith. Obama and Reid will not pave that road, nor more than Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint will pave the road for Card Check and and the nationalization of the oil industry. They will never, ever,ever, ever, ever, ever sign on to anything that paves the way for a Cap Act or a BBA, ever.

Just arguing about is silly waste of time. They had the vote. The Republicans made their stand, defined themselves. Now, its time to put the country first and stop the grandstanding.

acat

I do not find you to be a font of wisdom there, bro.

Mew

Repair_Man_Jack

The Libs will say no, so we must run away.

Tbone

or until the Senate votes on it. Doesn’t the House have anything else on its agenda that needs tending to?

Repair_Man_Jack

Let them crap in their pants! The only thing that should spur the House to do anything else is the passage of a current FY budget in the US Senate. 800 days and counting…..

dajeeps

I still have not been able to figure what’s to be gotten at the end of it that is beneficial to the economic problems we have now or in the near future. No one has been able to explain it to me in a way that I can follow a golden thread of logic to the conclusion that the CCB or any other plan will neuter the regulatory monstrosity that has killed and still is killing the economy. If we want to get rid of big government, why aren’t we demanding repeal of those agencies that are distorting markets and killing jobs (including ObamaCare), and reform of entitltements so they are affordable in exchange? That would be a huge win for the conservative movement and do wonders for Federal revenue that tax increases cannot.

http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

“Just arguing about is silly waste of time. They had the vote. The Republicans made their stand, defined themselves. Now, its time to put the country first and stop the grandstanding.”

Do you have reading comprehension problems?

How is this putting the country first. The Democrats oppose it just as much as they do CCB. For the last time, once Boehner telegraphed his inexorable fear of Aug.2 – to the extent that he is willing to tear up conservatives over it – Democrats have no reason to agree to it. They will use this as the right most goal post of the negotiations. We will wind up with nothing, unless they somehow rally behind it.

http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

we need to send them another people that they will reject, unless it is seriously amended. Then, we will cave on Boehner 2.0, just like we did on CCB.

Paul Seale

Democrats and elemnts with in the conservative movement do not want to solve the problem. They all want a shut down.

Democrats believe after August 2 and the govt shuts down (and possible default) the leverage switches to them. They have been dreaming of a 1995 redux moment. Damn the consequences.

Some conservatives believe the same as Democrats, that any solution is all or nothing.

Both are wrong. Both play a very serious game of chicken for the sole purpose of power for the sake of power with the very real result of destroying people’s lives.

It is a failure of their job and irresponsible if such an event occurs.

To that end I am fairly confident that even if Boehners plan passes it will die with CCB in the Senate.

Am I playing the same game when I will note that my self would not support something sent from the Senate which includes tax hikes. Perhaps.

It is a long way, however, from taking the position of CCB or nothing and actively seeking to crash the government into some sort of self imposed balanced budget.

I am disgusted with the whole process.

ghostship

It’s the Republican Establishment way.

It makes absolutely no sense to the rest of us.

Whacker77

Refresh my memory. What is Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s position on this bill? Have he and the Republican majority in the Senate scheduled a vote yet? Will any of the members of the Democrat minority break ranks and vote with the Republican majority?

Oh, wait. Republicans are the minority party in the Senate and that means they don’t control the levers of debate. Republicans control the House and that’s it. They have less power than they did in 1995 when they lost the debate. Get that through your heads.

This idea that we can force through CC&B is just crazy. It’s not going to happen. There aren’t the votes for it in the Senate. The idea the Senate is going to pass out an amendment before the debt limit is increased is pure fantasy.

It’s this unrealistic mentality that produced some goof ball candidates in 2010. The idea we would make the same mistakes again is just beyond belief. We have to take the best deal we can get and keep fighting.

I appreciate Erick’s passion, but these posts are becoming hysterical. We’ve won the darn debate. No one is talking about tax increases. Not Boehner, not Reid, not anyone. It’s not the best deal in the world, but deal with it. Stop acting like CC&B was written by God and must be adhered to strictly.

Obam is on the ropes and could well be knocked out by a loss here. If the hotheads who gave us Angle and O’Donnell scuttle this deal, Republicans will get 100% of the blame and Obama will have been given a miracle.

No one ever believed we could do everything we wanted in 2011. We all knew we had to aim for 2012 so deal with with reality.

silentcal2012

They dont. That’s the difference, brah.

When this started the goal was cuts commensurate with the cap raise. The debt ceiling raise has been on the calender all year, yet no one planned on using this as leverage to repeal ObamCare, pass a BBA, pass a Cap Act. No one. No one here at redstate. They are just making these fa flung demands as they go along. Why not attach the privitization of social security to a debt ceiling raise. Principels are principles, right. If you beleive it, dont be a coward and go all in.

In the real world, this is hardly some compromise. We achieved a good portion of our goals. We are getting cuts commensurate with the raise and no tax increases. That was the original goal.

We won, but this is a great example of The Stupid Party grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

what is your solution? I would be happy to coalesce around Boehner, if he would only stick with his plan. But, as you so aptly pointed out, Democrats are playing a game of chicken and will not accept Boehner’s plan. So what is the next step? Boehner will have to avoid that evil terrible Aug. 2 date. If you take that to it’s logical conclusion, there is no difference between the two plan. Either way, Dems will be intransigent, and either way it is, for some reason, incumbent upon us to stop the default = we must pass clean extension, or more or less clean.

Carner_York

Good explanation but once again, I have to ask why Dingy Harry didn’t send back CCB with changes? At this point it seems to me that the GOP has to present a united front so they should stand behind Boehner’s new plan even though, as Cantor said, it sucks. If Boehner is humiliated the MSM will have a field day and Reid will pounce even harder. In any case, I would suggest the Connie Mack’s Penny Plan is something that the GOP should not dismiss. In fact, they should keep it as a last minute bargaining tool.

benko

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.
John Adams”

Not that we weren’t supposed to be a republic, or to be defeatist or anything. But does anyone see any way we wind up anything but Greece?

bigredone

And what evidence do you have that indicates a greater willingness on the part of “leadership” to stand fast after 2012?

Now is the time to hold the line! Not even one minute from now, but now.

HOLD THE LINE!

lineholder

Obama is not Clinton. The political environment and our economic prospects are much different now than they were in 1995.

Plus, who gets blamed is not and should not be the primary issue here. It should be whether or not a bill can get passed that will prevent our credit rating from being downgraded, so that we have better chance of surviving this recession in the long-term.

Aaron Gardner

I am not shocked.

ghostship

We give the Left its credit card back and in return we get…..um…..uh….accounting gimmicks.

Wow, what a great deal! We’ve really showed them didn’t we? Oh yeah, we showed them that the Republican Party is a bunch of chumps.

Paul Seale

Im out of solutions – and as I indicated before – disgusted with the whole process. People are in a high stakes game for the sake of power and could seemingly care less about the state of the nation in the process.

It is apparent to me that Democrats see the division between us and will reject anything which comes out of the House of Representatives.

I do not expect the Senate to act at all unless it is at the last second, but I doubt that given its been 800+ days since a budget was passed.

So, we will go well passed August without any solution.

I figure President Obama will use the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling as he sees fit and declare himself savior of the country (again).

The other alternative I see is that President Obama will pick and choose what we pay with the income we get to maximize political pain to the country. I would expect to default on some of our loans, but not all, just to make a point.

Of course once we default, you dont get your credit rating back – so who knows.

In any case, I do not see our leverage increasing after August 2nd. To pretend President Obama would “play fair” and allow pressure to build is to ignore what happened in the healthcare debate.

acat

Polling about who to blame for the 1995 shutdown had turned the corner, that is, it had shifted from majority-blame-Rs to majority-blame-Clinton, *before* Gingrich capitulated.

Evidently, Newt did not think it was going to turn enough.

Far too many non-conservative republicans learned the wrong lesson from 1995.. and we’re still paying for it.

When, for instance, was the last actual filibuster?

Mew

Paul Seale

The people where I live expect Congress to keep the government running.

To pretend 95 cant happen again and people really would be fine with a govt shut down is akin to Dems last year believing that health care wasnt one of the big reasons for the GOP take over in 94.

Learn from history.

Thx.

http://redmeatconservative.blogspot.com/ Daniel Horowitz

using your logic and assumptions, shouldn’t we be the big boys and pass a clean extension?

acat

I’m very concerned about the state of the nation.

I’m looking at it in the longer term, not in the immediate “raise the debt ceiling or our madman president will force the elderly to eat cat food or something”.

We, that is, Conservatives but also the GOP, need to be known as the go-to party for fiscal responsibility. The GOP have already capitulated on Obamacare, sold Paul Ryan’s road map down the river, and got the Dems to agree to a whopping $55 million in cuts – which Boehner claimed was a much larger number.

This is not a way to inspire confidence, eh?

Mew

red_oakster

Whatever the Senate comes up with is going to go to a conference that already has the Boehner plan, once it passes the House today. This time the Senate will have to move. But again, there will be further compromise and the result will be something that is deeply unsatisfactory-except for all the alternatives.

All it took yesterday was a 1.4% drop in the stock market to shore up the GOP side. The problem with Erick’s argument always had been that going into default as a game of chicken will tank the market. And every time the market goes down, defaulting looks more and more ridiculous to the vast swath of Americans who are investors. It’s a political loser. If the Boehner plan falls in the House, the market will take a big hit. TARP didn’t happen so long ago that this dynamic is unfamiliar. That’s why the CCB and nothing else strategy has been so thoroughly unpersuasive.

Repair_Man_Jack

These people have gone 800 days w/o passing a budget. I honestly doubt thay have the professional ability necessary to produce a substantive plan. Ram this one through and they won’t have the guts to vote against it.

lineholder

I’ve learned that putting what is right in the long run ahead of what is politically expedient in the short-term ends up being the best way to go.

I know that having priorities in this order makes folks who fear a repeat of 1995 uncomfortable, but if we don’t what is right now in regards to our economy, we can watch the private sector shutdown relatively quickly, especially in light of what’s coming down via Obamacare, which will lead to a government shutdown because less of us will have jobs that let us pay the taxes contributing to public funds so that government keeps running.

Going your way, we will all just commiserate with each other over what might have been if we had done the right thing when we had the chance.

I’d rather keep our options for surviving in the long run as strong as possible.

JSobieski

The dispute here is as much about line drawing as it is about line holding.

A couple of things to consider:

(1) The longer term involves both the substantive policy as well as the politics. Keeping the tea party motivated is important. So is keeping the wishy-washy independents focused on Obama’s failures.

(2) The substantive impact of the various plans is de minimis in 2012. We are all arguing about rounding errors when it comes to 2012. The long term politics of this is far more important than the long term substance.

(3) Do you really think the R’s “capitulated” on Obamacare? Did anyone in the leadership every even imply that Obamacare could be taken out prior to 2013? Anyone who thought it was going to happen wasn’t being realistic.

(4) Will any elected D ever vote to approve a constitutional amendment requiring a 2/3 vote to raise taxes.

I think Sowell’s analogy of how George Washington led during the Revolutionary War is an insightful one.

Carner_York

Don’t know how many have seen Congressman Mack’s Penny Plan. It’s been around since April and Rand Paul has endorsed it. It cuts one cent from every dollar of federal spending for 6-years. It caps federal spending at 18% of the economy. It is flexible in that it allows bigger cuts to some areas and lesser ones to others. If the cuts can’t be agreed upon then it defaults to a 1% cut across the board. It is simple and it cuts spending immediately. Mack contends that it would balance the budget in 8-years. It effectively deals with the the biggest culprit in the whole budget mess – baseline budgeting. Thanks, Dick Nixon.

Marcus_Traianus

and yes, this will turn out badly for Republicans also if Boehner’s latest plan doesn’t succeed.

The people are ready to burn down everything inside the Beltway, irrespective of party. Not passing a bill from the House will simply provide more fuel for the fire. In the meantime, we can start the warfare by engaging in a circular firing squad.

Stand on Boehner’s latest bill. Refuse to accept changes which essentially make it Reid’s plan. That’s easily explainable to the public. Especially since the Democrat controlled Senate and Obama have not pass a budget in over 800 days. The major figures in the conservative movement accepting Boehner’s Plan will also continue to speak out.

Call Democrats bluff on this one. I don’t buy they have the votes, irrespective of what they print. Why aren’t we pressuring vulnerable Senate Democrats? oh, that’s right- we are too busy eating our young.

runner12

It has been reported locally that my Rep. (Rep. Lankford (OK) will support the bill. What makes this more of a betrayal is all of his rhetoric about fixing the debt mess we are in and touting a balanced budget. Yet all he has done is carry water for the leadership.

Guess my wariness about him in the primaries was on target. It does not make me any less disapointed in him though.

Paging Kevin Calvey, looks like you could have another shot at this seat. This vote alone could make you one of the next Representarives from the state of OK.

( I might also add that the more liberal Republican Rep. from Tulsa is voting no because the plan does nothing to fix the debt. It is a sad day when Sullivan is to the right of Lankford! )

drfredc

If the Boner bill is the best the GOP can hope for, it needs to get folks who are better at thinking out of the box.

There’s lots of better bills that could be put forth. For example, one might say — hmm, we’ve only got X dollars in revenue, so this is what we are going to spend. Develop a budget guideline for each Congresscritter to divide up Federal revenue into various reasonably determined ranges according to each Congress Critters vision. Then total it all up for each major budget item (Education, Military, interest on debt, SS, Medicare, etc, etc). Then develop a budget for each major issue that fits within some reasonable range/guidelines. Any revenue excess Federal revenue that comes in will be used to pay down the principle of debt — not spent on new programs and handouts to buy votes. The total sum of the previous budget will be used as the new baseline for the next year. You know — something that makes common sense, scrap the current silly hyper-political budget process that currently exists primarily to promote more and more irresponsible spending by both parties.

In other words, defuse the polarizing party element of the budget process by letting each CongressCritter have their say in the process. This way, no specific ‘drastic’ cut can be blamed on any particular party or person.

kestrel

I would vote against the speaker’s bill. This is my gut instinct after reading and hearing, and reading and hearing, and reading and hearing the endless debate. I heard Paul Ryan yesterday. He makes a lot of sense, but he ascribes consciences to Reid, Schumer, Obama and the other leftists. They don’t have them.

John Boehner reminds me of an overly responsible firstborn who agonizes over trying to save other people from their mistakes. It’s admirable, and even sort of endearing, but it’s futile.

Paul Seale

And you are asking the country to believe that we are the country of fiscal discipline by shutting down the government? Im fairly sure you will get a few chuckles by some and angry fist at others who lost their retirement and or job because of this.

Not that I do not agree with you – there is a need to address the problem.

I simply do not have that answer as it seems no one is really interested in solving the problem and genuinely seem to want to “crash the car” just to see what happens afterward.

ghostship

If THIS is the BEST that we can DO as the Establishment Republicans keep harping then we might as well give up.

Because if this the BEST we can DO then our BEST doesn’t amount to JACK SQUAT!

If this is THE BEST WE CAN DO then the Republican Party is a colossal waste of time and effort!

IF OUR BEST is to give the Democrats an increase in the debt ceiling in return for basically NOTHING then it’s time to give up.

So DON’T be surprised that if THIS GARBAGE is the BEST the Republican Party can do the then the American people WILL GIVE UP on the Republican Party in 2012.

The fact that you Establishment types DON’T GET THIS is utter MADNESS!

Kyle-MI

Not that I go to a lot of garage sales, but my wife does. I picked up a few tips from her.

What usually happens is you see something you like, for example a cordless drill. It is marked with a price, say $30. You go up to the person doing the sale and make a lower offer, maybe $15. They come back with $25 and you two negotiate back and forth until you both agree on a price. Now, it also depends on how much you want the drill and how much the other side is willing to drop.

So here is what I don’t get about the debt ceiling negotiations. The President’s initial offer was a tax increase with some cuts. We countered with CCB. They effectively voted down CCB in the Senate. We are working on the Boehner plan which has less cuts than the CCB. Here is where it becomes weird. They are saying that the Boehner plan will get even less votes than CCB?

It is as if I offer $20 for the drill and the seller bumps up the price from $30 to $40. At that point I would recognize that the seller wasn’t serious and just walk away.

Paul Seale

Just as I said I would not accept tax increases.

I seriously doubt that even if Republicans gave Democrats what they want that it would be signed into effect.

Democrats want the govt to shut down. Some conservative groups want the shut down.

All so they can “leverage” for the better deal and see what happens afterward. In the mean time guess who gets stuck?

I will repeat, I am disgusted.

At this exact moment there is no way out. Period.

red_oakster

nt

acat

You have asserted that, until we win big in 2012, we cannot really start slicing the salami. I do not disagree with this.

You also appear to assert that capitulating now does not impact 2012. I do not agree with this.

If we are perceived as capitulating now, it does decrease our ability to win big enough in 2012 to take some thick slices off the salami …

We must come out of this as the party of fiscal discipline. If I believed the Boehner plan was the best we could do, I’d back it in order to at least get something.

Mew

Tbone

Why the House seems compelled to keep throw crap at the Senate wall makes no sense.

Vaughn Harold

demand a vote on the passed CCB.

Repair_Man_Jack

nt.

kyconservative

I assume Boehner and Cantor’s plan is to pass the Boehner bill today, send it to the Senate where the GOP establishment will add revenue enhancers and otherwise water down the meager spending cuts in the Boehner bill, then send it back to the House where Boehner and Cantor will use Democratic votes to ram it through early next week.

How pathetic

lineholder

So, let’s say that this vote on the debt ceiling doesn’t end out the way we would prefer…we just regroup, harden our resolve, and move forward, armed with even better knowledge about what we are up against and what it will take to get this nation back on the path that provides the best chance of surviving in the long run.

Anyone who believes that this single vote will cause conservatives to just give up is badly underestimating the political environment that exists right now and the spirit of determination that exists on the right end of the political spectrum.

If the Boehner or Reid plans do get passed, it just adds a few more obstacles that have to be overcome into the situation. That’s all. But it would be wiser by far for all of us to go with the best possible option we have economically, which is CCB.

PubliusII

Here are some thoughts:

1. The Senate will not pass the Ryan plan, or CCB, as written. Whatever the Senate passes, if anything, will be to the left of either plan passed by the House.

2. The Senate will not pass the Boehner plan as written either. Whatever the Senate passes, if anything, will be to the left of the Boehner plan.

3. Reid’s plan, or the Gang of Six plan, will not pass the Senate. Whatever the Senate passes, if anything, will be to the right of the Reid plan or the Gang of Six plan.

4. Whatever emerges from Congress will be based on the 2 or 3 Republican plans, with liberal amendments to enable the Senate to pass it.

5. I see this as a disagreement regarding whether it is tactically better if (a) the House passes Boehner’s new plan; or (b) the House defeats that plan and stands on CCB and Ryan. Erick and others say (b) is better. Boehner and others say (a) is better.

6. On the substance, why does it matter which bill (Ryan, CCB, Boehner’s new plan) becomes the starting point for the liberal amendments. The liberal changes will be equally obnoxious regardless of which House plan is the starting point. The leftward tilt of any Senate amendments will be limited by the House’s willingness to defeat ithe Senate version. That is not controlled by which bill the Senate starts from. The version of the bill amended as by the Senate is where the conservatives must hold the line. Thiat is the key moment.

7. Obama will sign whatever Congress sends him.

8. On the politics, if the Boehner plan is defeated, every liberal and their amen corner in the media will unanimously blame the Republicans for whatever happens on August 3. If the Boehner plan is passed, the Republicans can say that the house has offered 3 alternatives to the Senate.

9. In that context, Reid just can’t say all three are dead on arrival, and that the House should start over. Reid will have to bring forward his amendments. If the Senate can’t pass those, then the Dems at least share the blame for whatever hasppens on Aug. 3.

This is about disagreements regarding tactics. I disagree that this is about selling out. That charge is appropriate if the Senate amends the bill in a way conservatives can’t accept and we pass it anyway.

JSobieski

CCB passed on a 234-190 vote.

To amend the constitution, you need a 2/3 vote. 2/3 of 425 is 285 votes. Thus, the House passed the CCB without actually completing its responsibilities with respect to BBA. Put another way, the BBA part of CCB has not been passed in a substantive way—its purely symbolic at this point. If the 67 Senators approved BBA today, we would be waiting for the House to reach the 2/3 threshold.

So the BBA part of CCB is just as much an illusion as the as Aug 2nd resulting in 40% spending cuts. If Aug 2nd happens and things go south, you don’t think the MSM will eventually realize that the House never passed the BBA?

When you strip out the phantoms, is this really the substance on which to crash the car. There are a lot of misconceptions out there and a lot of emotion. Together they make for a dangerous combination.

izoneguy

After this the Republicans need to say – OK that’s it.

President Obama – if we default it was on your watch.

The next bill the Republicans need to craft is a bill that says in what order money will flow out from what is collected.

1.) Interest payments
2.) Military pay
3.) Social Security
4.) MediCare

Then the Federal government can fight over what is left…..

If the Dept’s of Energy & Education folded tomorrow – no one would notice.
Next the EPA needs to be dis-banded and shuttered.
Then OSHA, The NLRB and the labor dept…..

GopTiger

Cantor’s recent comments suggest a bit of the the strategy you have laid out.

From Politico:

?After today, Harry Reid is going to have two bills,? Cantor said. ?He?s going to have the bill that we moved out which is our optimum cut, cap and balance and now he?ll have another bill, which is a compromise bill. There are things in it that he likes and the ball will be in his court at that point.?

avgjo

that they would do such a thing? They fold. They are scared of the leftist media. They want the dims on the hill to like them. They are not scared of conservative media. And they could care less what their constituents think.

What you propose would require them to care for what’s right, instead of scoring political/social points. And it’s obvious they don’t.

acat

Perry to run on in 2012, don’t you think?

And for a number of Tea Party candidates under the GOP banner?

Yes, I know the House didn’t pass the BBA. They brought it up, though… and we need to go on bringing it up.

At the risk of reopening unpleasant memories, the Dems started bringing up universal health care way back and *persisted* until they got it. (unless the GOP grow a pair and take action, Obamacare will crush the insurance companies and we’ll be at single-payer universal health care…)

We need to do the same thing. Unfortunately, unlike the Libs, Conservatives have to both fight the statists in the GOP and the Dems; the Libs can just pick away at us.

All that said, if I thought the Boehner deal was the best we could get, I’d take it. I don’t ask for much out of politicians, but I do expect them to not leave money on the table. Even purveyors of the oldest profession know that much.

Mew

ghostship

But if the Establishment Republicans think that the Conservative base of the GOP will just keep swallowing this garbage over and over again then they are completely MAD!

The GOP cannot continue to think that the base will continue to vote Republican no matter how pathetic they are simply because the Democrats are worse and where else do they have to go.

They will stay home! Some will even vote third party.

This is a true reality check.

HOLD THE LINE! STAND AND FIGHT!

jerry39

This is still the way out. Call it Krauthammer 2.0. 1.0 being described here –

http://www.redstate.com/tooncesthecat/2011/07/23/charles-krauthammer-is-right/

But its enhanced now because we have come up with at least 2 more written plans to their 0 plans. Simply taking Reid and Obama at their word – there is no “balanced” approach that they are really interested in discussing.

Pass the prioritization bill and go home.

lineholder

Public confidence in government as a whole is extremely low right now, particularly in regards to being fiscally responsible. The party that finds a way to inspire confidence with the type of policies that it presents to the American people is the party that is most likely to find itself backed with the kind of enthusiasm that will win the election.

This is one of those cases where what seems to be easiest and most politically expedient may not be the wisest course to take because it negates the enthusiasm factor rather than encourages it.

jimmuy8

That is to say: We are no longer a country for the people, by the people and of the people but for the politicians, by the politicians and of the politicians. ‘Cause the GOP only controls one-half of one branch of government means we need to give up? Because the politicians of one party refuse to listen to the people, we must cave? Maybe, just maybe we can go back to that crazy notion that the American people run this country and the American people can make the choice of what is acceptable?
If the GOP quits negotiating with themselves ever and ever closer to the Dems position and rather take the case to the American people–let the chips fall where they may–we win.

JSobieski

Sounds to me like we are going to war with ourselves for $80B in FY2012 cuts.

I just don’t understand going nuclear for $80B.

I have to be honest with you, I don’t think that many people understand that the BBA didn’t truly pass. Heck, there isn’t even any specific language for the amendment.

I don’t see the merit in playing chicken (putting 2012 elections at risk) for $80B.

The D’s were smart to bring up health care over and over again. I am all for that aoproach. The D’s did not however bring up comprehensive healthcare during the Bush administration and link it to the raising of the debt ceiling. So if you are looking for tactical lessons, I don’t think you are drawing the right conclusions.

jerry39

It assumes a negotiated deal will emerge. If that doesn’t happen and we end up forcing something from the house as written – why make it a horrible bill, when we have the option of making it a good bill?

The second problem is that the Republicans can already say they have presented the bill and it was rejected by both the President and Reid – because he has and they have. Why go through all the angst of passing the bad bill to gain what we already have?

red_oakster

They are fighting furiously because they know they have to do something. And Reid knows that the Senate can only pass something with 60 votes-which means he’ll have to compromise. Otherwise the Dems and Obama will get the blame for their inability to pass something.

Vaughn Harold

the sidelines criticizing everything that comes out of the house. Boehner needs to expose them now.

Carner_York

Rush agrees but has not yet discussed what the GOP should do instead so I have to assume he wants them to drop the two step plan, tell Dingy Harry that it’s CCB or nothing and hope that they are not blamed for whatever happens as a result. He has suggested freezing the budget for a number of years. That goes along pretty much with Mack’s Penny Plan and I think it’s a good backup. The GOP can say they tried CCB and they worked to offer a compromise bill. Both were rejected out of had by an uncompromising Dem led Senate. So, the only way to go is ok the debt ceiling limit (maybe half of what Obama wants) and freeze the budget for a number of years. I would add that Obama himself spoke about a budget freeze in his State of the Union address last January.

Bill S

and stay silent.

If you don’t have the gonads to fight for principle, stand aside.

Fla Mom

And though I didn’t see him, I’ve read that Allen West is voting ‘yes,’ too.

Did he say ‘steadfast?’

Fla Mom

acat

I know it’s not going to happen this year. This is the wrong hill, the wrong issue, and – in the Senate – the wrong leader.

Either the BBA is the sticking point, or the $80B is. Why not pass it one way and then the other and find out which?

That said, we’ve already presented the Dems with 3 options, and they’ve presented us with a load of horse manure. If we were in the nursery business, that’d be great, but .. as it is, we’re doing all the work and they’re just running out the clock.

Let the Dems propose something. Something real, something scoreable, something the House could actually consider. (i.e. not “gang of six” or Reid’s scribbling crib of Boehner)

Mew

http://electionsanalysis.blog.com paint_it_red

In negotiations, the experts say it is critical to know your BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement), and it is also important to have a good feel for your counterpart’s BATNA.

Right now, the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. The rate of new spending and entitlement programs is out of control. Right now, we can get X amount in cuts. If the U.S. defaults, it is a catastrophe for the fiscal well-being of the country. If we raise the debt limit without meaningful cuts, we merely postpone and crystallize the certainty of eventual default and fiscal catastrophe. Our BATNA as such cannot be confused with our goals though. If we get no deal, and there is default, we may still have bargaining power to enforce cuts, but the cost may be too high. The cuts themselves are instrumental to the intrinsic good of our country’s fiscal health. That intrinsic good is shot to hell by a default. Not a good BATNA.

The Dems’ BATNA is equally bad. If we default, then our country takes a huge hit and so do a lot of their cherished spending programs, particularly social security and other non vested “entitltements.” They cannot let that happen.

Best scenario to my mind given the short timeline is get a short term (3-6 months) deal in place so the issue can be revisited while securing substantial cuts now. The amount of increase in the debt limit should be less than the amount cut from spending (speculative spending not included).

If we set a $.50 on the dollar bar or even a $.75 on the dollar bar, that parties can agree to, the rest is working out the math on how much has already been agreed in cuts now, and the rate of spending will dictate how quickly we revisit the issue. That’s a simple line in the sand the public can understand and support, and it is a path to fiscal solvency.

JSobieski

Mack’s Penny Plan is the most aggressive plan identified to date. It is better than Coburn’s $9T. It is better than Ryan. It may even be better than Ryan’s private “Roadmap.:

To refer to the Penny Plan as a “backup” to the CCB is like making Michael Jordan a backup to Spud Web.

The freeze Obama mentioned is a baseline freeze (i.e. 8% increases). The Penny Plan freeze is a real freeze (no baseline).

These two ideas are further apart than any other plan being mentioned in the debate.

runner12

I have not heard all of the details, but what I am hearing about the Mack-Penny I am liking.

cordpt

If we end up with something worse than Bohener’s plan, will you assume you were wrong?

RS

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