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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Three Scenarios (And A Fourth)

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  July 28th, 2011 at 12:49 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There are three scenarios I see playing out here on the debt ceiling.

The least likely scenario is John Boehner’s plan barely makes it through the House and then the Senate Democrats say, “Okay, we’re out of time, let’s do it.” That’s what the GOP is telling themselves will happen. Senator Reid today quashed that idea by saying the Senate will vote tonight to kill Boehner’s plan.

The more likely scenario is that Reid will either use Boehner’s plan as a shell to then pass Democrat ideas possibly including tax increases, White House policy preferences, etc. They will then send the bill back to the House and, since the shell will be John Boehner’s plan, the Democrats will dare John Boehner to kill his own legislation.

What seems most likely at this point The third scenario is that the Senate will kill Boehner’s plan tonight or tomorrow, then declare that we are out of time and insist on a “clean” debt ceiling increasing saying we’ll take care of all the other issues later. The GOP, having folded all the way down to a bare bones plan, will probably cave.

And along the way we may lose our credit rating — the Chinese downgraded us today.

Any way it works, the GOP will get the blame, the debt ceiling will go up, taxes will go up, and spending will most definitely not go down.

The only way to stop it is for enough House Republicans to hold the line today and kill the Boehner plan.

—————

A friend of mine points out a fourth that he thinks is most likely and, having heard it, I’m both kicking myself for not thinking of it myself and also now have to say I completely think this is most likely.

The Senate will kill Boehner’s plan and Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid will come up with a modified version of McConnell-Reid-Pelosi with some of Boehner’s stuff and kick it back to the House daring the House GOP to kill a bipartisan plan.

Having pinged a few friends in the Senate on this scenario, they all had pretty much the same reply.

This is different from the second in that they won’t use Boehner as a shell, but will construct something else.

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COMMENTS

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  • Ausonius

    The odds have been falling of a deal by Sunday, but rising for a deal sometime in August to raise the ceiling a trillion dollars.

    See:

    http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

    This market views an increase as almost inevitable, just not by Sunday.

  • lordmaximus

    What should be the immediate step by the House be in order to address America that the House bill is the CCB/BBA and that it is in the Senate’s hand?

    Who should this? Boehner? DeMint?

  • Bill S

    is that Obama will invoke the Fourteenth Amendment and unilaterally declare that he must increase the ceiling himself, since the Republicans have screwed things up and delayed the process (I’m speculating on his story line here…)

    This will be followed by a further drop in his approval ratings as more of the American people realize that he is an out-of-control tin-pot Fidel Castro wannabe.

  • sarg01

    … and that’s the whole reason why the strategy is bad. Why is a cave inevitable. Boehner hasn’t caved yet on the debt ceiling – why expect him to start now?

  • Ned Reck

    Any Rep who caves and votes for the Boehner Bill… has got to be sportin’ a spaghetti-spine… or guacamole gonads… and/or both.

    Erick has pointed out into the middle of the huge cow pasture… shown these Reps the one mushy pile of poop… and it appears these ol’ boys (and girls) are happy to head straight for steppin’ in it.

    Sheeeeshshshh…good grief!

    Ned Reck

  • inovrmihd

    I am sure that by now, someone has brought your arguments to the leadership? Are all the Republicans brain dead, or are they just being bullied into it? How have they been responding (are they really telling their caucus that Reid won’t send it back with the President’s “priorities” addressed)?

    Now that Reid has said he will kill it immediately, and the White House is claiming the Republicans want to destroy Christmas, is there any pressure on Boehner to pull the bill, saying that the Democrats have poisoned the well to such a degree that no one is willing to vote for it? Is there any graceful way out for Boehner?

  • Kyle-MI

    As long as the Dems have some power they have amply demonstrated that they are unwilling to propose any meaningful cuts. The GOP is only slightly better. We deserve to lose our credit rating.

    It is not just the fault of the politicians. We, the voters, deserve some of the blame. I just don’t see much polling pressure on the Dems to push them to spending cuts. I don’t see any polling pressure to support the hardline conservative position.

    I don’t see anyway this mess gets resolved until a new congress and new president is in place. And even that is not certain.

  • Whacker77

    Who’s playing the fear game now? I really believe the rise in loud opposition to Boehner is a realization it will pass and possibly in the Senate.

  • __t_i_m_o_t_h_y__

    .

  • anjinconsulting

    and tell him that there is no use taking a vote on Boehner v2.0 since its DOA, then let the senate decide whether or not to vote on the CC&B bill on the table. The ball would be left in the Senate court it woudl be apparent to the most strident apparatchik that the Senate had abbrogated their responsibility to act; even more so, it would demonstrate the ineffectual and pathetic lack of leadership by Captain Zero.

    Downgrade is going to happen anyway, and the deficit is going to rise exponentially as a function of rising interest rates. Hold on to your butts kids…

  • lordmaximus

    Way to go Erick…with you, Malkin, Levin, and now Rush all over this today…Boehner has his work cut out for him today

    Glimmers of hope…HOLD THE LINE!!!

  • Aaron Gardner

    That is all.

  • anjinconsulting

    Boehner woudl have to do it since is the “leader”.

  • Kyle-MI

    Their first choice is to force the GOP into raising taxes. They will play that scenario through, knowing that the 14th plan can always be used at the last minute. It would explain why they can reject the Boehner compromise.

  • jaykali

    Will Erick at least acknowledge that there is a RISK in holding the line for CCB. That risk is that a deal does not get done by August 2nd and that then Republicans must share the blame for the economy which the WH would be all too eager to share. We all know the markets will react if no deal is done by August 2nd and then Obama (+ MSM) can say look the Republicans have held us hostage and now everything is worse!

    Will someone at least acknowledge that there is at least the RISK (even if you think it’s 1%) that this could be a result of holding a hard line in this negotiation.

  • red_oakster

    Is he spineless too?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The only question is what the differential is between two different plans.

    Asking about the consequences, in isolation, of Erick’s plan is irrelevant to the conversation.

    Tell us what plan you want to compare with Erick’s, and we can discuss differentials in outcome probabilities.

  • mikeevergreen

    Dragging the default threat out until next year is a loser for both parties, but especially Obama, and by extension, the Dems.

    These budget issues should not have been part of the debt ceiling deal, IMO.

    The GOP could have done something clean like what Ron Paul suggested:

    http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/91224/ron-paul-debt-ceiling-federal-reserve

  • JSobieski

    “Any way it works, the GOP will get the blame, the debt ceiling will go up, taxes will go up, and spending will most definitely not go down.”

    The GOP will not be blamed if whatever compromise includes tax increases that are rejected by the House. Having the D’s blame the GOP is not the same thing as independents blaming the GOP. D’s will always blame the GOP. The GOP can vote against the debt ceiling increase if it includes tax increases. Moreover, the R’s in the Senate will presumably not roll over instantaneously on this.

    “The only way to stop it is for enough House Republicans to hold the line today and kill the Boehner plan.”

    How will holding the line help the R’s avoid blame? Again, the blame that matters is the blame of swing voters. The D’s are going to blame us anyway. So just because the D’s do something to position us for blame doesn’t make those plans accurate.

    The issue of blame matters, but only with respect to swing voters. The fact that the D’s do certain things to position the GOP for blame doesn’t mean that the D’s will succeed. They are not omniscient. Heck, they aren’t really that clever.

  • anjinconsulting

    Such a declaration and subsequent action would be an impeachable offense. The Constitution clearly states that only CONGRESS is authorized to pay the debts and to borrow money. The 14th amendment also states that CONGRESS has the power to enforce that amendment by appropriate legislation.

  • inovrmihd

    Why is the 12 person committee even allowed to consider tax hikes? Has any member of hte Boehner crowd explained why any revenue increase is allowed to even be considered in this negotiation?

  • Vegas_Rick

    Yup

  • mikeevergreen

    http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/174045-warner-pushing-for-gang-of-six-vote

    Republicans should have never gone for a two-parter. They could now lose their bargaining advantage. The country is tired of this brinksmanship and wants the deal done.

  • APA Guy

    The Democrats aren’t stupid. They know exactly which corners to let us paint ourselves into. The only way out of this mess is to defeat the House bill and make CCB the ONLY plan moving forward. Faced with that prospect, the capitulator president will be the one who caves…especially after his approval rating drops into the 30s…

  • sarg01

    Which means:

    Reid has to come up with another trillion point five of real cuts, on top of his current $1T cuts to get his $2.4T increase.

    OR

    Reid has to settle for a $1T increase for his $1T in cuts.

    That’s what the fight is about.

  • Ned Reck

    nt

  • APA Guy

    I need a beer.

  • sarg01

    That’s the thing you’re forgetting. Any committee report still has to pass both Houses. The leverage gained is that the Senate commits to an up-or-down, meaning any provision that can peel 4 dems and get R unanimity can pass. Otherwise, they need 13 to kill the filibuster.

  • JSobieski

    One side calling the other spineless makes as little sense as the other side calling the other side stupid. These are tactical differences. Teamates don’t insult each other based on tactical differences.

    Consider the following facts:
    (1) The House never actually approved the BBA part of CCB (did not get the 2/3 vote threshold)
    (2) The real difference between CCB and Boehner is roughly $80B in FY2012—neither plan is going to save us
    (3) If we do run out of debt limit, there will not be automatic cuts of 40%

    The substantive differences between CCB and Boehner are very very small. As Sowell said in his piece today, risks need to be commensurate with rewards.

  • dhoerster

    What exactly are you holding the line on? So you kill the Boehner plan. Great. Then what???

    CCB, as great as it is, will not pass. The Dems would rather the country go belly up than agree to a restraint on their power.

    The line your holding is idealistic and futile. What is the endgame with holding the line?

  • mikeevergreen

    http://www.nationaljournal.com//congress/reid-says-senate-will-vote-on-boehner-plan-after-house-thursday-night-20110728

    Reid says no Dems will support Boehner bill.

  • avgjo

    that this is a disagreement on strategy, or a moral failure?

  • mikeevergreen

    IMO, the public doesn’t want this high drama to continue.

  • APA Guy

    “The Dems would rather the country go belly up than agree to a restraint on their power.”

    Really? Heading into a presidential re-election year, the president wants the economy to collapse..after which the nation and its voters blame him for the 10-12% unemployment that results?

    The Democrat Party is a collection of spineless cowards, but they’re not stupid. That means they will not shoot themselves in the foot, but they also know when to surrender. Holding the line means forcing THEM to capitulate instead of giving the country more of what it didn’t vote for last November.

  • sarg01

    For the same reason every House R should be voting for Boehner’s bill. This is about setting the terms for the actual arrangement.

    Boehner will demand what he always has demanded – cuts equal to or greater than the ceiling increase

    Reid will demand $2.4T+ ceiling increase to take it past the election

    If neither side blinks, Reid will have to scramble to find another 1.5T in cuts (he’s identified about $1T now).

    The only other possibility is Boehner can’t back up his position (i.e. he can’t pass his bill), in which case Reid will be able to demand the $2.4T and try to force Boehner to compromise between $1T and $2T in cuts. This is why we need the Boehner bill to pass.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    commit fratricide to avoid what you predict with your crystal ball will be eventual murder?

    I am pretty certain that won’t sit well with most of the villagers. In fact, my guess is part of the crowd turns from trying to remove the king and burns down your hut.

    And don’t hurt yourself. The market has already priced in a Treasury downgrade since your preferred solution, and any of the others on the table aren’t going to resolve this in a way to avoid it. Everyone on the Street knows it.

    Yeah and let the Chinese buy Eurobonds. That’s a wise flight to “safety”.

  • fpete13527

    I hope I am wrong on the following.

    From Roll Call article it appears that most Florida Reps, minus Ross and Mack, are demonstrating the extremely irresponsible decision to vote Yes for Boehner’s pathetic sell-out bill.

    Please prove me wrong. I know you all are better than that.

    I’ve already called my Reps. I’ll be extremely disappointed if they vote Yes and so will most everyone I know.

    From Roll Call
    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/173745-whip-list-on-boehners-new-plan-on-debtdeficit

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I smell fear.

    Keep on fighting, Erick.

  • Kyle-MI

    Sure, the argument is legally shaky, but it can be made. In that case, it would up to the Supreme Court to decide. Even if they decide against Obama, as long as he goes along with that decision, he can say he was acting in good faith.

  • anjinconsulting

    in your rationale for it. “The substantive differences between CCB and Boehner are very very small.”So if “risks need to be commensurate with rewards”, then why is walking away from Boehner’s legislation and standing for what you believe in (CC&B) even being questioned?

    These are not tactical differences, they are substantive strategic differences. Character matters.

  • avgjo

    nt

  • JSobieski

    If you want to say that everyone who disagrees with you is guilty of moral failure, you are accusing a lot of good people of character defects.

    Who goes around using tactical differences as innuendo for character defects? That is precisely what leftists do. They accuse the people who disagree with them as having nefarious goals, being mentally ill, etc.

    I don’t think Pence, West, Thompson, Sowell have defective character.

  • fpete13527

    nt

  • sarg01

    CCB doesn’t lift the debt ceiling unless the BBA passes. The BBA can not pass thing Congress, and thus CCB doesn’t lift the debt ceiling.

    No Dem can support that, especially after voting against it – Manchin probably would have been able to get away with it if he hadn’t already committed himself.

  • APA Guy

    I’m really trying to understand what our side could possibly fear where holding the line on bloated federal budgets and spending are concerned. Are we afraid that the country will blame us for sticking to the principles and values that made this country great (and got us elected in 2010)?

    Someone really needs to explain this fear to me..because I’m just not seeing it.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What *is* keeping the wusses from standing on principle, like the House Republican majority was elected to do?

  • JSobieski

    “Hi fellow conservative grass roots activist. I sense fear in you. On that basis, we are going to step up our efforts.”

    I don’t know how to interpret that in any way that is not a #&*@^&8,

    I am afraid. I am afraid that we are going to blow it. I mean really, we pass on digging in with a real plan (Ryan budget). We dig in on the CCB which is smoke and mirrors?Really? We don’t even have the votes in the House to pass the BBA!

    How is the CCB better than the Boehner plan? $85B. Yes, I am afraid we are over selling $85B in cuts.

    So by all means, hold the line on a BBA that wasn’t passed by a 2/3 vote, caps that aren’t enforceable, and $85 B more in cuts. Lets have as much fear as we can, because even if it were to pass—CCB is just such a great “victory”.

  • e_rowe

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/173745-whip-list-on-boehners-new-plan-on-debtdeficit

    I can’t help but notice the irony of how many Red State heroes are voting for this: Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Marlin Stutzman,

    Meanwhile, the list of no votes is Ron Paul and the rest of his liberty caucus. Is it possible that some folks here have misjudged who are the real conservatives and who are the fake ones?

  • dhoerster

    And I bet the Dems think the odds are in their favor if nothing gets passed, ratings get lowered, and the gov’t gets shut down that the Republicans will get blamed by the press. You know there will be story after story of how the Republicans were “intransigent”, how Cantor messed everything up (somehow – not sure how, though), that Boehner walked out on Obama, etc. etc. etc.

    The Dems are playing the odds, and I bet they think the odds are in their favor.

    They won’t capitulate as long as they think the odds are in their favor.

  • Lori Jeffries

    When we were facing the budget crisis we were told (when the GOP folded like a cheap suit) that they were saving the “big guns” for the debt ceiling debate. Now, we are at the debt ceiling debate and AGAIN they are folding like a cheap suit. So, my question is when, exactly when, are they going to stand? When are they going to refuse to budge? I get that we are only 1 of 3 parts of the government, but when GOP members are yelling at RSC members for NOT folding the GOP has lost its soul.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Has Ron Paul apologized yet for his defense of mass murder?

    Ron Paul is a liar and a fraud.

    But please, go back to your altar of gold and worship your Man-God. Do you turn to face his district when you pray to him?

  • sarg01

    But the Senators don’t. Pelosi and the Congressional Progressive Caucus certainly don’t.

    You need 20 Dem Senators and 50 Dem Housies to raise the debt ceiling with CCB – where do those votes come from?

  • APA Guy

    The man took conservatism to the people…and not surprisingly, the people were won over. It could happen again if only we had the right leadership.

  • swami7774

    Whatever the House passes–WHATEVER it passes–the Reid/Obama/MSM unholy axis will pronounce it “dead on arrival.”
    The House could pass a ban on cruelty to fluffy labrador puppies and it would be “dead on arrival.” That’s the nature of the game right now. So you take your best shot and send it to ‘em. With tonight’s expected passage, the House will have sent the Senate TWO bills, and the Senate will kill them BOTH.
    Then it’s up to every Republican member to go to the nearest microphone and tell the public the Dems have dismissed two viable plans. They have to say this because the MSM won’t.

    Meanwhile, is there any way the GOP senators could gum up Reid’s plans to remake the Boehner plan into his own?

  • PaladinLostHour

    It might not lead to his removal – but the House would easily vote to impeach him. And asserting good faith, when he’s declared his own attorneys have told him its legally suspect, aint gonna fly.

    Important to note that this isn’t a Bill and his Magic Cigar scenario – this is the President asserting the unilateral ability to raise taxes (Treasury bills issued to fund that debt ceiling increase have to be funded out of the public fisc). It’s a 3 month, crash and burn fest for him.

    And hey – I’ll buy the popcorn.

  • JSobieski

    To get the debt ceiling raised, the CCB needs to be approved by a majority of the House and Senate.

    To actually get the amendment to the states, a BBA would need to be prepared (no such language currently exists), and such language would need to first be approved by 2/3 vote.

    The House can’t even pass the BBA, and yet so much of the current debate presumes that the House already approved the BBA.

    The Senate could pass the BBA by a 2/3 vote today, and the House still would not be able to get it through.

    Your “huge difference” is smoke and mirrors.

  • avgjo

    And I daily disagree with people on many things without regarding them as morally defective.

    Neither do I believe that one moral failure implies defective character.

    Neither is a characterization like ‘spineless’ a label that, once applied, is permanent. One can be spineless for a while, or a liar for a moment. So I’m not sure that to say Pence or anyone else is ‘spineless’ in this is a broad devaluation of their character.

    Pence is a fine man, and the others you mentioned are great. But even fine men screw up sometimes and have moral failures;you don’t need me to tell you that.

    My question was merely meant to offer a possibility. Sorry; apparently I mussed up.

  • e_rowe

    When did he defend mass murder?

    And we do agree that he’s voting the right way on this, while Pence, Ryan, and Stutzman aren’t. Right?

    He has a habit of voting the right way like that when the party establishment doesn’t, including reputed conservatives. I just have trouble seeing what makes that such a bad thing.

    Keep up the sarcasm too. It never gets old.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Reid bill, no matter how he packages the smoke-n-mirro cuts, is a non-starter. Boehner bill is already the compromise of a compromise. so no changes or 220+ GOP votes are gone. There are no enough Dem votes to get it through the House, so if Boehner will not cave, the caucus will not.
    218+ Republicans will vote against Reid bill substitute.

    Standoff and shutdown awaits.
    The one merit of the Boehner bill is that it, contrary to Reid statements, will likely pass the Senate and get signed. This IS a line that can be held. And if not – it’s Reid’s fault. We pass 2 bills. DONE.

    “Any way it works, the GOP will get the blame, the debt ceiling will go up, taxes will go up, and spending will most definitely not go down.”

    OK, and folks were asking how ‘hold the line on CCB’ would change that prediction? Answer: It won’t, because in the end, no strategy or position or principle or statement would force Reid or Obama to behave or do anything fiscally responsible. It’s either a minimal/crappy bill or its a shutdown, with the media prepped with DNC talking points about how its all Republicans’ fault, they cant get Tea Party folks to be ‘reasonable’ yadda, yadda, etc. The talking points are probably already written.

    We need to stop blaming other Republicans for differences over strategy and focus on the bigger picture.

    IMHO, the FY2012 budget is a better hill to die on over spending. The debt ceiling is not a hostage we can shoot.

  • glaucon

    “The line your holding is idealistic and futile. What is the endgame with holding the line?”

    The Democrats have the Presidency and the Senate. The GOP has a bare majority in the House. All we can do is vote no on more borrowing and spending. We are not solely responsible for fixing the budget problems, made much worse by Obama.

    If your teenage daughter comes to you and says “Daddy, buy me a Mercedes”, you can say no. When she says “Take out a loan to buy it”, you can still say no. When she cries and says “You have to fix this, because I need my Mercedes”, you can still say no. When she says it is all your fault and you have ruined her life, it’s time to ground her.

  • Carner_York

    Excerpt from a National Journal piece.

    “Republicans argue Boehner?s bill is the only option for averting default before the August 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling. Reid intends to amend it with aspects of his own, alternative proposal and send the bill back to the House. He will need support from Senate Republicans and in particular Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to alter the bill.”

    If it’s true that Reid will need GOP help to alter the bill do we not have more leverage than we think? Not that I count on McConnel but just sayin.

  • JSobieski

    The differences between CCB and Boehner are not significant.

    The BBA part of the CCB is smoke and mirrors. The house didn’t pass the BBA by 2/3 vote. So all the reliance on the BBA part of CCB is based on nothing substantive.

    The real difference between CCB and Boehner is $85B in FY 2012 in cuts. $85B.

    My fear is based on the assessment by people on our side that the CCB is somehow a hill worth dying for. Put Ryan back on the table, and I jump to a more aggressive position.

    I don’t see the wusses here presuming other people must be stupid. But heck, lets start with circular firing squads.

  • sarg01

    “However the bill was intended to encourage a constitutional amendment by requiring that the debt ceiling could not be raised unless Congress passed an amendment and submitted it to the states for ratification.” that’s Wikipedia, so take it for what you will, but it mirrors everything else I’ve heard.

    In any case, I’m on your side regarding not digging in over dead legislation. BBA can’t pass, and thus CCB can’t stop a default/shutdown. I think any R not supporting Boehner’s plan is making a significant error.

    Everyone seems to think the threat of a shutdown will somehow convice 70-odd dem congresscritters to take an action that runs contrary to everything they believe in and everything their campaign contributors support. It’s not going to happen. They’d much rather let the country burn.

  • bk

    Bad enough that the Dems just sweep everything under the rug. Should the GOP force them to debate it through the weekend?

    Or is Reid just going to use the “table” option and get the Dems to avoid it while also avoiding a filibuster? If so, the Senate GOP should filibuster Reid’s bill and bring on Armageddon.

  • swami7774

    Freeze all spending at current levels for a year.
    Done. “Cuts” identified.
    Every household in America can relate to that.

  • Ned Reck

    I can see your point… but it’s just a matter of lookin’ at things differently.

    However… here’s my perspective: To me… some of these guys/gals were elected to do a “duty”… and disregard their jobs in the process.

    We are now confronted by our “Alamo”….

    If the freshmen Reps cave… the nation will surely lose…. eventually. The Reps may gain some time to keep their jobs… but will eventually lose because the nation will suffer greatly.

    If the Reps fight… they may lose their seats sooner…. but it could save the nation.

    Extending the time-frame of their losses by surrendering takes less spine than fightin’. But apparently… D.C. thinkin’ has kicked-in’… and they have cowed in the face of adversity.

    General Lee once said that “duty” was the most sublime word in the English language.

    Just my take on it….

    Ned

  • MNConservative

    Ad-hominem-o-rama!

    So typical of anti-paulites… no substance, just emotion.

  • JSobieski

    “Passing” the CCB by a majority is all that is required for the debt ceiling raise, while passing an actual CA (something that is not yet even in writing) would require 2/3 votes.

    It is smoke and mirrors analogous to debt commissions and spending caps.

  • cwilson

    …abandoning the Cut-Cap-and-Balance bill.

  • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

    nt

  • sarg01

    Why is this the Alamo? Particularly since the R leadership never staked CCB out as the only solution. The leadership has consistently said no ceiling lift greater than cuts.

    Both CCB and the current Boehner bill fit within this principle, which we have not caved on at any point in the negotiation. Obama has already caved 4 times this year on this issue, and we’re trying to force a 5th cave now.

    Boehner HAS “held the line”, while Obama has been decisively defeated, and if we get this one last cave from him, it’ll be a rout. Will we win the entire war in this one battle? No. We won’t.

  • sarg01

    It won’t pass Congress or get signed by Obama. Unless someone’s got mutant powers and a spare wheelchair, we can’t pass legislation through sheer willpower.

  • Cogburn

    And say just that. ” I know Sen Reid and the PResident have demonized this plan, The Democrats claim they have a better idea, so let’s see it.”

  • anjinconsulting

    so sayeth the Constitution. Daddy has to sign the loan paperwork so the teenage daughter can buy the Mercedes.

    Its time for Daddy to ground the teenage princess and box the ears of her petulant man-child boyfriend; NOW.

  • JSobieski

    how can that delta save the nation?

    I totally get digging in on a line worth digging in on. I don’t understand how the CCB is that line.

    I do appreciate your take, but I don’t think Pence, West, Ryan, et al can accurately be characterized as spineless or wusses.

    Ryan has put together road maps that put a big target on his head. He has been getting CBO scores for things with no chance of passage for years.

    Pence is the most conservative guy in the House.

    West. . . well we know what West is willing to do.

    I don’t think people have an accurate apples to apples comparison of the CCB vs. Boehner. I think folks are attributing to the Boehner plan certain attributes without realizing that those same attributes apply to the CCB. I think the fissure here is in thinking that the CCB is actually a solution.

  • Scope

    the 9/11 mass murder of over 3,000 American citizens when shortly after he claimed that the hijackers were nothing but a bunch of thugs with box cutters. Wow, get that, jets are “nothing but box cutters.” At the same time he said that the radical islamist threat was a made up threat, just as the Communist threat was a made up threat in the 50′s and 60′s. His deluded mind believes that if we just stop “occupying” their countries they will let us alone. He stupidly thinks that if we do free trade with our enemies then they will have no reason to think ill of us. He said that the US can protect itself with a few good submarines. He thinks we should sit back and just wait to be attacked by North Korea or Iran because we are broke, and can’t afford to defend the country and her citizens. It is the main job of the president of the US to protect the country and her citizens from attacks both inside and out. When someone like a Paul refuses to even admit we have enemies, they belong in a loony bin, not in the oval office.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Is holding the line on CCB a clear win/win?
    It’s been in both houses. The votes were taken and it failed in Senate. It is crystal clear that ‘hold the line’ really means ‘lets go to default and see if Reid will blink and pass CCB’. What will really happen is the question.

    This is the old “electable or conservative” primary election dilemma. Do you want a more conservative candidate or a candidate who can win? When it is BOTH, like a Marco Rubio, you have a win/win. CCB would be a win/win – if it can go through the Senate. But it cant and it wont.

    Boehner and McConnell were in the room with these guys. They concluded that “no they wont blink, not on CCB”. It’s unfortunate that the scorched-earth treatment of Boehner and others is obscuring the fact that this is a disagreement over strategy and not over goals.

    events serve us up MANY opportunities to pursue the spending reduction goals. Many opportunities which we SHOULD hold GOP leadership accountable, and which SHOULD have a much better chance of moving the ball forward.

    EVERY SINGLE ARGUMENT AND DEMAND TO CUT SPENDING CAN BE REMADE AS A CONDITION FOR PASSAGE OF FY2012 BUDGET.

    So – whatever happens – lets do that. This is not the END of the fight to downsize Government, this is the beginning.

  • __t_i_m_o_t_h_y__

    An example of this is the last dem congress. Obamacare and the new baseline are still there for the next dem congress if the republicans don’t cut.

  • cwilson

    has a multiplier effect, because it sets the BASELINE for next year, and the year after that. Did you hear Rush and Hannity yesterday talking about the ‘baseline budgeting’ rules? So a larger cut THIS year sets the ground rules for the argument about the 2012 budget this summer. And the 2013 budget, next summer.

    Think compounded interest.

    Besides: if the Boehner plan cuts “$1B” from this year, then the CCB is 8,500% better.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But don’t cry when your cult is exposed.

    Ron Paul isn’t Moses. Ron Paul is the idolater.

  • rightwingmom52

    losing control over their own little piece of the thiefdom.

    After failing to get any kind of answer from Rep. Bachus, I’m faxing my letter to my him and my senators, the GOP leadership, the RSC, etc. I’d send it to all GOP members if I could afford it, but I’m at work and captive to the office fax which requires my personal billing number.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Go back to school and learn what an ad hominem is.

  • __t_i_m_o_t_h_y__

    Like he did on the CCR.
    Like he did on defunding Obamacare.
    Like he did on the 100 Billion.
    Like he has on CC&B.

    Yep, this time he is for real!

  • cwilson

    …when all this fails, how about this:

    1) clean debt ceiling increase, past the 2012 elections

    2) contingent on amending the 1974 Budget Act to eliminate the automatic increases computing the budget baseline. This is the process where EVERY line item in this year’s budget gets a 7% to 10% automatic increase, and then THAT is considered the baseline for next year’s budget. (This is how an 8% increase in real year-over-year spending is portrayed as a 2% cut).

    That’s it. No other changes, no other explicit cuts. To make the pill go down easier, stipulate that the new rules don’t go into effect until January, 2013 (e.g. next Congress).

    This would score as an $8.1 TRILLION dollar cut over the next 10 years.

  • Adjoran

    What’s your alternative?

    The reason we cannot force our will here is we don’t control the Senate OR the White House. In a democratic republic, half of one branch doesn’t mean you get your way.

  • wbf

    I am beginning to think that this battle should never have been engaged. If the House leaders were not prepared to stand by the Cup, Cap and Balance Bill then they should never have advanced it.
    They knew from the beginning that they were going to raise the debt ceiling NO MATTER WHAT. So what was the point of all of this?

    The House Leadership has really bungled this whole situation.

  • romeg

    or that his Caucus is to blame and the Democrats in the Senate and Obama are blaming the Republicans. The MSLM is all too happy to blame the Tea Party Republicans or, simply, the Republicans. THAT is the message that will be conveyed to those who are too lazy to do their own investigation into the facts.

    As far as that goes, the whole “The Sky is Falling” Default crisis has been manufactured by the Dems with the full cooperation of the MSLM.

    IOW, Blame On.

    It is long past time that Republicans started pointing out that the person pretending to be The Adult in the room is nothing more than a spoiled petulant brat that, if he doesn’t get HIS WAY, he is going to stamp his feet and hold his breath.

    Ken Langone, the Co-Founder of Home Depot put it perfectly this morning on Squawk Box: This President is not leading because he is devoid of any leadership skills. But the sycophantic MSLM is all too happy to do his bidding and foist total responsibility on the House Republicans.

  • Adjoran

    It would be very hard for Democrats to go to the mattresses in defense of “automatice increases in budget baselines.”

  • wbf

    I just posted then read your post.

  • Kyle-MI

    After the last impeachment fiasco, the House is unlikely to vote impeachment unless they are sure they have the Senate votes. As the Senate is controlled by Dems, do you seriously think any of them will be voting to convict Obama? Keep in mind that they are just as obstinate as the president and therefore know that a unilateral raise is an option.

    Legally suspect does not mean legally impossible. It gives him cover with the Senate Dems. Obama would love to play Clinton II. He is trying a replay of the government shutdown and he would love to redo the whole impeachment thing, too.

    Of course there would probably be a political price for the unilateral raise which is why it is a second option instead of the primary one.

  • MNConservative

    Not sure why Erik keeps you on, frankly.

  • anjinconsulting

    then why let it progress to that stage?

    The argument that Boehner’s bill is the only option for diverting default is not only false, it is vacuous as well. The CC&B bill is tabled in the Senate, not voted on, not voted down. Thus, the CC&B legislation is still an option. More importantly, Captain Zero can pay every debt authorized by the Congress to date however; in doing so he wont have enough left over to pay for the discretionary expenditures.

    And therein lies the real debate that RINOs and Democrats do NOT want to engage in: do we maintain the current size of the government and ensure its positive growth in the future, or do we suspend its growth and even reduce its size?

  • MNConservative

    Sorry about that, Erick.

  • JSobieski

    The new Boeher plan cuts over $25B in FY2012. CCB cuts $111B.

    Compounding the savings will require future diligence and R control. The delta with respect to between now and 2012 election results in $85B.

    I fail to see how $85B saves us. The politics of this fight are far more important than the substance of it.

    Is $85B worth the risk? My view is to either go for something truly substantive, or you take what you can get. The CCB is in the middle of that road—it makes no sense to draw the line there.

  • Bill S

    .

  • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

    For Boehner and the House leadership this is a failure both of leadership and morality.

    Call it borrowing all you want. It is borrowing from the next two or three generations that have absolutely no say in the matter. Nor will they derive any benefit from it like building a bridge or road.

    I suppose bank robbers could call it borrowing and hand over a note for their children to satisfy.

    Why don’t we just “assign” the debt to the Chinese, Russians or Ethiopians? Because we can’t. We don’t have that right.

    Neither do we have some morally degenerate right to “assign” it to Americans yet unborn. We may as well sell our children into slavery as this kind of debt.

    This isn’t borrowing it is stealing. That is what you call it when you take what doesn’t belong to you without the owners permission.

    And $23B in cuts against a $1.5+T deficit? 1.5% of the deficit? 1/2 of 1% of the budget? The immediate cuts are meaningless. The future cuts will never happen.

    For our leaders this is evil, for the led a failure of principle.

    They could abstain, let Boehner et al sell us out, which we knew he would, and define a block of principled conservatives to build a future on.

  • Adjoran

    . . . and there will be many more to add to the list.

    Before this is over, we’ll all be RINOs except the tiny little core of self-appointed Keepers of the Flame – but even any of you will be subject to being denounced for failing to toe the New Party Line 100%, 24/7/365. Then you will be expunged from the lists and your photos cut out of group shots.

    Maybe to save time you should just take the “true Republicans” and form another party? Best of luck and do write every now and then . . .

  • cwilson

    ANYTHING. They could amend CCB — gut the whole thing and put Obama’s plan in there instead (er, …) Then the result can go to a conference committee.

    So far, the Senate has done NOTHING and the Republicans are dancing to Harry Reid’s tune, while he fiddles on the sidelines. It’s pointless.

    As WHOPR said, sometimes the only way to win is to stop playing the game.

  • sarg01

    The official requirement in CCB to raise the debt ceiling is:

    “The Secretary of the Treasury shall not exercise the additional borrowing authority provided under subsection (b) until the Archivist of the United States transmits to the States [list of candidate BBAs] a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, or a similar amendment if it requires that total outlays not exceed total receipts, that contains a spending limitation as a percentage of GDP, and requires that tax increases be approved by a two-thirds vote in both Houses of Congress for their ratification.”

    The action in subsection (b) – the actual ceiling lift – is:

    “section 3101(b) of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking the dollar limitation contained in such subsection and inserting $16,700,000,000,000.”

  • Aaron Gardner

    I don’t see people against the bill doing it as much.

    Odd, it is almost like you are trying to start a meme.

  • barry915barry

    Congressman Randy Hultgren (R-IL-14). Spoke with Kyle. Tried to impress upon him that I appreciated the congressman’s yes vote on CCB, and that there was NO REASON to dilute that vote with a yes vote today on the Speaker’s latest plan. Unfortunately, Kyle made it seem like the congressman was undecided. That is in contrast to a Chicago Tribune article this morning which suggested that he was a fairly solid no vote. Be strong, Congressman Hultgren.
    HOLD THE LINE!

    Barry.

  • JSobieski

    The MSM and D’s will blame us regardless. What matters is the swing voter.

    Erick opposes the Boehner plan because he fears it will lead to a bad deal.

    I support the Boehner plan because if there is no deal, passage of the Boehner plan is the best innoculation we can have for convincing independent swing voters that the debacle isn’t our fault.

    In my view, the substantive improvement represented by CCB is not sufficient to merit the additional political risk.

  • Kyle-MI

    the voters would never have found out how much the Dems are against spending cuts and balanced budgets, and how much they always push tax increases. This is especially true of swing voters. We conservatives already knew it, but we need to constantly remind the other voters.

  • Adjoran

    They mistakenly assumed Obama and the Democrats give a rat’s patootie about the country. They do not. All they care about is power and using it right now to feed their ravenous constituencies.

    What is left of the old Democratic coalition is a very messy patchwork – FDR’s original coalition was also comprised of groups with competing interests: Southern and rural whites, northern liberals, unions, blacks, socialists, and academics. But now the remaining parts are finding the glue which held them together was not so strong after all.

    It was easier to keep unity when all the interest groups could be fed by the marvelous engine of free market capitalism. But all the fiddling and regulating has restricted the output, while all the parasites have grown fatter and hungrier.

    If spending cannot be sustained, choices must be made, and Democratic constituencies will finally find themselves competing with each other for limited resources at the public trough, and the coalition will swiftly fracture. The Democratic Party as we know it will be finished.

    Of course, in saving their own power and prospects for a little while longer, Democrats risk the downfall of America, but it’s a risk they are willing to take.

    Republicans didn’t realize this. I hope we do now.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    FY2011 was too small.
    Threatening default is too risky to economy.
    FY2012 – JUST RIGHT.

    We can’t ‘shoot the hostage’ so to speak when it comes to paying bills that are legally due. So let’s not force a default, when in a few months the disagreement will lead to a mere Govt shutdown the old-fashioned way.

    We now have the spectacle of Reid and Obama accusing the Republicans of destroying the Government, when they are making very minor reductions. A Government shutdown is practically inevitable, given the Democrat inability to compromise.
    If we need a war consigliere, fine, call it some better leaders. But lets let debt ceiling play out before you assume the worst.

  • GopTiger

    Bingo!

    That has been the Obama plan all along.

    It gives him the “clean” debt ceiling increase he wanted all along while allowing him to the be Savior of the Republic.

    Can’t you see Obama sitting with the Wall Street crowd now, telling them how he” had” to raise the debt ceiling for them. In return, he will expect ample campaign contributions. And, then he will head to his welfare constituencies and tell them he did it for them as well.

    Of course, Obama doesn’t realize this is going to make the conservative argument that he is a wannabe-despot that much easier. But since he snookered 52.9% of the voters last time, Obama thinks he can do it again.

    Instead of engaging in this circular firing squad exercise with each other, we should all be sharpening our swords for this fight instead.

  • rightwingmom52

    Unfortunately, the GOP has misjudged Hobbits, Tea Partiers and the conservative base. We’ve been telling them for years that liberal policies are destructive and to stop compromising. We warned them Obama was not to be trusted, but they continue to “reach across the aisle.” Makes me want to borrow the redstate blam stick and beat them over the head with it, figuratively speaking of course.

  • unclefred

    I am as frustrated as any commenter here. I have contacted my rep to remind him of his promise to cut spending and asked him to continue to hold the line. I think it would be useful to discuss a bit of reality.

    The democrats in the Senate are for the most part the same people who voted to pass Obamacare, over the strongest, most active, and most vocal voter opposition at least since before world war II. They interpreted the results of the 2010 election, as a revolt, and have doubled down on the same policies and positions that enraged their constituents. There is absolutely no change of CCB ever passing this Senate. A balanced budget amendment would fly though ratification. It would end the political power of the democrat party within four years and consign it to the trash heap for decades. This is far more important to the left than Obamacare. If public pressure could not stop Obamacare, no amount will push CCB or anything close to it through the Senate. NO AMOUNT.

    Similarly the Senate’s only purposel is to protect Obama from ending up with a bill on his desk, other than one they produce.

    However much I dislike it, that is reality. We hold only the house. Repealing Obamacare and Dodd Frank, and ending the regulatory madness, real spending cuts, entitlement reform, all depend on gaining a reasonable Senate majority and taking the White House in 2012.

    Until now we have been winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the middle of the electorate. The fight by the house has exposed the reality of the left and Obama’s incompetence. However most of these people don’t attach the same importance to cutting spending today as we do. They don’t see a huge difference between doing it now and say 2013. For them it is an abstract. We have won their support by convincing them that high spending, high taxes, and high debt is bad for jobs. Jobs are by far their largest concern. Right now these voters, who will decide the 2012 elections, see the Republicans as far more competent at restoring jobs in this country. That perception of greater competence also applies to the debt, budgets, taxes, the economy, and even healthcare. It is that perception of competence that will bring us victory in 2012. It MUST NOT be lost.

    In this context I want to ask the following questions.

    If we win the debt fight (whatever than means with CCB unable to be passed) can we end up so damaged that a disgusted middle voter decides that there is no difference?

    If ultimately the house is going to have to compromise, are we better off to compromise now reserving another bite at this apple next year while we still have the better voter perception or push this as long as possible and risk losing the very perception of republican competence that the media is trying to change?

    Let’s assume for the moment that the compromises, folds, caves, pick your adjective. Other than true RINOs, it is more important to focus on winning the Senate and WH, than punishing house republicans by spending precious resources primarying them?

    The debt ceiling fight is a battle; It is not the war; Winning it will not decide this war; Neither will losing it unless we let it splinter us. Losing in 2012 may well lose us the war. I would hope we’d keep this in mind.

    If we are the adults in the room, at some point are we not obligated to face reality?

  • chipshirley

    Why would the Tea Party have a rally to do that?

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Thank you for gracing our website with your unique combination of wit and conviviality.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Please.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    get overly enthusiastic.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …of posting the email address that you registered under, too. After all, we wouldn’t want your, ah, *unique* style of posting to be inaccessible to anybody doing a resume search.

  • PubliusII

    1. The Senate will not pass the Ryan budget, CCB, or the new Boehner plan as written. If the Senate can pass anything (see #5 ) it will be to the left of anything the House has passed.

    2. The Senate will not pass the Reid plan or the Gang of Six plan. Whatever the Senate passes will be to the right of those plans.

    3. With all due respect to Erick, the Boehner bill is not the vote on which conservatives must hold the line. The conservatives must hold the line when the House votes on whatever Senate sends back to them.

    4. If the Boehner bill fails to pass the House, every liberal in America and the MSM will blame whatever happens on August 3 on the Republicans. Reid can have the Senate vote the Boehner bill down, but at that point the Republicans will have sent 3 alternatives to the Senate, and it will be hard to argue that all of them should be dead on arrival.

    5. It is much harder for the Senate to pass something, anything, than to defeat something. For the Senate to pass anything will force Reid to confront divisions within the Democratic caucus, and to avoid a Republican filibuster. Reid will want to load down one of the House bills with obnoxious liberal amendments. Which of the House bills Reid uses as the framework on which to hang his amendments matters less than whether the Senate can pass them at all. If the Senate cannot pass something, then the Democrats at least share blame for whatever happens on Aug. 3.

    6. Whatever emerges from the Senate (if anything) will be the real test for holding the line.

    7. Obama will sign whatever Congress sends him.

    8. This is about tactics. Charges of “sellout”, RINO, etc. are not appropriate here, IMHO.

  • carolina

    Combine Boehner (plan A) with Reid (plan B) and massage = plan C
    Of course this is the only thing that can happen, if the debt ceiling is going to be raised. The “trigger” seems to be the last big sticking point. Sounds like BO wants an automatic debt ceiling raise when Congress defines/passes more spending cuts.

  • carolina

    Combine Boehner (plan A) with Reid (plan B) and massage = plan C
    Of course this is the only thing that can happen, if the debt ceiling is going to be raised. The “trigger” seems to be the last big sticking point. Sounds like BO wants an automatic debt ceiling raise when Congress defines/passes more spending cuts.

  • ceili_dancer

    1.) Remove baseline as the mode of budgeting.
    2.)Tax increases will only come into effect after spending cuts, i.e. actual, not outlying year spending is reduced by$X billion, then we can talk about raising taxes. Those taxes are put to a voter each time and have their own separate up or down vote.

    Thoughts?

  • carolina

    It cuts $1 trillion. Sure sounded good to me.

  • runner12

    Also, to all of the above who are claiming that Boehner will not cave and combine the Reid and Boehner bill, you are not keeping up today.

    Rush reported this would happen today and just now on Hannity Rand Paul and Connie Mack both said this would most likely to happen. They were not happy about it, but commented on the lack of fortitude in Congress.

    In short, all of you who defended the Boehner plan were wrong in your estimations and Erick was right; along with FreedomWorks, Rush, Hannity, Heritage, Rand Paul, and many others.

  • trink509

    Since Bernake pumped $2T into our economy, we are facing higher interest rates and possibly hyperinflation. I see the dems signing onto Boehner’s plan “reluctantly”. Once it is passed and signed, Bernake starts raising rates and the media starts talking up the “terrible” inflation – all of it caused, of course, by the EVIL Republicans. In addition, they will also talk up the credit downgrade even tho dems offered nothing to do otherwise. I think we may be screwed.

  • sarg01

    That’s the point of both houses passing the bills. Neither house will approve the other’s. The question is who has the stronger hand. If Erick wins, then Reid will have the stronger hand and the compromise will be 90% of his bill.

    If Boehner gets a vote, he’ll have the stronger hand (because Reid has a filibuster problem) and will get 90% of his bill.

  • sarg01

    The Senate is prepping to back the Reid plan with the McConnell wimp-out clause added.

    Any vote against the Boehner plan is now a vote for the McConnell clause.

  • jaykali

    If he gets the cuts and its only for like 6-9 months and Obama has to swallow it I have to think of that as a legislative win.

    I think people’s heads are going to explode though bc wait until Boehner’s plan gets amended. Boehner is going to have to strong-arm many members to get his version passed – do you think Reid will rubber stamp Boehner’s bill?

    Reid and Boehner will have to compromise which will make the House hate it even more. I know we all love CCB but CCB never had a prayer, it’s going to be a battle just to get something resembling the Boehner bill to the president’s desk by this weekend.

  • jaykali

    I mean the really strong conservative pressure on this could force a much better deal in the end than we would have otherwise gotten. You can tell that this bill is being driven by the right, Democrats are trying to minimize the ‘damage’. I just hope it doesn’t blow up in our faces bc I do not want Republicans to co-own this awful economy with Obama. And it wouldn’t be co-owned for long, the media would make sure to convince everyone that it really was Republicans all along that thwarted the One’s ability to turn this thing around by taxing a few trillionaires a few more dollars and building some more ‘high speed rail’.

    I’ll be crossing my fingers…

  • e_rowe

    Any casual reader of that claim with a smidgen of critical thought will rightly dismiss it immediately.

    If there’s something else out there that actually warrants a response, please share it.

  • jaykali

    Reid’s plan will have some democratic votes. There are too many purist House holdouts for better or for worse. So something in between Reid & Boehner’s plan will get passed, I’m thinking it will be Reid’s. That way you can get some Democrats in both houses. It doesn’t look like anything that’s Republican-only can pass. Reid’s plan is cuts only even though it’s phony cuts it will get modified to be a little more palatable. Anywho it seems like the end-game is nigh upon us. They will get a deal done. I think the deal that gets passed will be past the election which is too bad bc I want Obama to choke on another few months of this 6 months from now.

  • cwilson

    .

  • JSobieski

    Or put another way, even if 67 Senators voted for CCB, there would still be no debt ceiling raise because we never reached the vote threshold in the House (and the proposed amendment doesn’t seem to have been created).

    I am surprised people at the DK and HP aren’t pointing this out.

  • JSobieski

    The debt ceiling is technically raised upon passage. Only the Secretary of Treasury is prevented from utilizing the additional borrowing until the amendment is sent off.

    I don’t think this restrictor would actually survive a challenge. More interesting is why they didn’t simply make the raising of the debt ceiling contingent upon the amendment being sent out.

    There is a reason why they worded it this way. The lawyer in me finds this stuff intriguiing.