The odds have been falling of a deal by Sunday, but rising for a deal sometime in August to raise the ceiling a trillion dollars.

See:

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

This market views an increase as almost inevitable, just not by Sunday.

What should be the immediate step by the House be in order to address America that the House bill is the CCB/BBA and that it is in the Senate’s hand?

Who should this? Boehner? DeMint?

is that Obama will invoke the Fourteenth Amendment and unilaterally declare that he must increase the ceiling himself, since the Republicans have screwed things up and delayed the process (I’m speculating on his story line here…)

This will be followed by a further drop in his approval ratings as more of the American people realize that he is an out-of-control tin-pot Fidel Castro wannabe.

… and that’s the whole reason why the strategy is bad. Why is a cave inevitable. Boehner hasn’t caved yet on the debt ceiling – why expect him to start now?

Any Rep who caves and votes for the Boehner Bill… has got to be sportin’ a spaghetti-spine… or guacamole gonads… and/or both.

Erick has pointed out into the middle of the huge cow pasture… shown these Reps the one mushy pile of poop… and it appears these ol’ boys (and girls) are happy to head straight for steppin’ in it.

Sheeeeshshshh…good grief!

Ned Reck

I am sure that by now, someone has brought your arguments to the leadership? Are all the Republicans brain dead, or are they just being bullied into it? How have they been responding (are they really telling their caucus that Reid won’t send it back with the President’s “priorities” addressed)?

Now that Reid has said he will kill it immediately, and the White House is claiming the Republicans want to destroy Christmas, is there any pressure on Boehner to pull the bill, saying that the Democrats have poisoned the well to such a degree that no one is willing to vote for it? Is there any graceful way out for Boehner?

As long as the Dems have some power they have amply demonstrated that they are unwilling to propose any meaningful cuts. The GOP is only slightly better. We deserve to lose our credit rating.

It is not just the fault of the politicians. We, the voters, deserve some of the blame. I just don’t see much polling pressure on the Dems to push them to spending cuts. I don’t see any polling pressure to support the hardline conservative position.

I don’t see anyway this mess gets resolved until a new congress and new president is in place. And even that is not certain.

Who’s playing the fear game now? I really believe the rise in loud opposition to Boehner is a realization it will pass and possibly in the Senate.

.

and tell him that there is no use taking a vote on Boehner v2.0 since its DOA, then let the senate decide whether or not to vote on the CC&B bill on the table. The ball would be left in the Senate court it woudl be apparent to the most strident apparatchik that the Senate had abbrogated their responsibility to act; even more so, it would demonstrate the ineffectual and pathetic lack of leadership by Captain Zero.

Downgrade is going to happen anyway, and the deficit is going to rise exponentially as a function of rising interest rates. Hold on to your butts kids…

Way to go Erick…with you, Malkin, Levin, and now Rush all over this today…Boehner has his work cut out for him today

Glimmers of hope…HOLD THE LINE!!!

Will Erick at least acknowledge that there is a RISK in holding the line for CCB. That risk is that a deal does not get done by August 2nd and that then Republicans must share the blame for the economy which the WH would be all too eager to share. We all know the markets will react if no deal is done by August 2nd and then Obama (+ MSM) can say look the Republicans have held us hostage and now everything is worse!

Will someone at least acknowledge that there is at least the RISK (even if you think it’s 1%) that this could be a result of holding a hard line in this negotiation.

“Any way it works, the GOP will get the blame, the debt ceiling will go up, taxes will go up, and spending will most definitely not go down.”

The GOP will not be blamed if whatever compromise includes tax increases that are rejected by the House. Having the D’s blame the GOP is not the same thing as independents blaming the GOP. D’s will always blame the GOP. The GOP can vote against the debt ceiling increase if it includes tax increases. Moreover, the R’s in the Senate will presumably not roll over instantaneously on this.

“The only way to stop it is for enough House Republicans to hold the line today and kill the Boehner plan.”

How will holding the line help the R’s avoid blame? Again, the blame that matters is the blame of swing voters. The D’s are going to blame us anyway. So just because the D’s do something to position us for blame doesn’t make those plans accurate.

The issue of blame matters, but only with respect to swing voters. The fact that the D’s do certain things to position the GOP for blame doesn’t mean that the D’s will succeed. They are not omniscient. Heck, they aren’t really that clever.

Why is the 12 person committee even allowed to consider tax hikes? Has any member of hte Boehner crowd explained why any revenue increase is allowed to even be considered in this negotiation?

The Democrats aren’t stupid. They know exactly which corners to let us paint ourselves into. The only way out of this mess is to defeat the House bill and make CCB the ONLY plan moving forward. Faced with that prospect, the capitulator president will be the one who caves…especially after his approval rating drops into the 30s…

What exactly are you holding the line on? So you kill the Boehner plan. Great. Then what???

CCB, as great as it is, will not pass. The Dems would rather the country go belly up than agree to a restraint on their power.

The line your holding is idealistic and futile. What is the endgame with holding the line?

http://www.nationaljournal.com//congress/reid-says-senate-will-vote-on-boehner-plan-after-house-thursday-night-20110728

Reid says no Dems will support Boehner bill.

IMO, the public doesn’t want this high drama to continue.

commit fratricide to avoid what you predict with your crystal ball will be eventual murder?

I am pretty certain that won’t sit well with most of the villagers. In fact, my guess is part of the crowd turns from trying to remove the king and burns down your hut.

And don’t hurt yourself. The market has already priced in a Treasury downgrade since your preferred solution, and any of the others on the table aren’t going to resolve this in a way to avoid it. Everyone on the Street knows it.

Yeah and let the Chinese buy Eurobonds. That’s a wise flight to “safety”.

I hope I am wrong on the following.

From Roll Call article it appears that most Florida Reps, minus Ross and Mack, are demonstrating the extremely irresponsible decision to vote Yes for Boehner’s pathetic sell-out bill.

Please prove me wrong. I know you all are better than that.

I’ve already called my Reps. I’ll be extremely disappointed if they vote Yes and so will most everyone I know.

From Roll Call
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/173745-whip-list-on-boehners-new-plan-on-debtdeficit

I smell fear.

Keep on fighting, Erick.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/173745-whip-list-on-boehners-new-plan-on-debtdeficit

I can’t help but notice the irony of how many Red State heroes are voting for this: Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Marlin Stutzman,

Meanwhile, the list of no votes is Ron Paul and the rest of his liberty caucus. Is it possible that some folks here have misjudged who are the real conservatives and who are the fake ones?

When we were facing the budget crisis we were told (when the GOP folded like a cheap suit) that they were saving the “big guns” for the debt ceiling debate. Now, we are at the debt ceiling debate and AGAIN they are folding like a cheap suit. So, my question is when, exactly when, are they going to stand? When are they going to refuse to budge? I get that we are only 1 of 3 parts of the government, but when GOP members are yelling at RSC members for NOT folding the GOP has lost its soul.

Excerpt from a National Journal piece.

“Republicans argue Boehner’s bill is the only option for averting default before the August 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling. Reid intends to amend it with aspects of his own, alternative proposal and send the bill back to the House. He will need support from Senate Republicans and in particular Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to alter the bill.”

If it’s true that Reid will need GOP help to alter the bill do we not have more leverage than we think? Not that I count on McConnel but just sayin.

…when all this fails, how about this:

1) clean debt ceiling increase, past the 2012 elections

2) contingent on amending the 1974 Budget Act to eliminate the automatic increases computing the budget baseline. This is the process where EVERY line item in this year’s budget gets a 7% to 10% automatic increase, and then THAT is considered the baseline for next year’s budget. (This is how an 8% increase in real year-over-year spending is portrayed as a 2% cut).

That’s it. No other changes, no other explicit cuts. To make the pill go down easier, stipulate that the new rules don’t go into effect until January, 2013 (e.g. next Congress).

This would score as an $8.1 TRILLION dollar cut over the next 10 years.

I am beginning to think that this battle should never have been engaged. If the House leaders were not prepared to stand by the Cup, Cap and Balance Bill then they should never have advanced it.
They knew from the beginning that they were going to raise the debt ceiling NO MATTER WHAT. So what was the point of all of this?

The House Leadership has really bungled this whole situation.

then why let it progress to that stage?

The argument that Boehner’s bill is the only option for diverting default is not only false, it is vacuous as well. The CC&B bill is tabled in the Senate, not voted on, not voted down. Thus, the CC&B legislation is still an option. More importantly, Captain Zero can pay every debt authorized by the Congress to date however; in doing so he wont have enough left over to pay for the discretionary expenditures.

And therein lies the real debate that RINOs and Democrats do NOT want to engage in: do we maintain the current size of the government and ensure its positive growth in the future, or do we suspend its growth and even reduce its size?

. . . and there will be many more to add to the list.

Before this is over, we’ll all be RINOs except the tiny little core of self-appointed Keepers of the Flame – but even any of you will be subject to being denounced for failing to toe the New Party Line 100%, 24/7/365. Then you will be expunged from the lists and your photos cut out of group shots.

Maybe to save time you should just take the “true Republicans” and form another party? Best of luck and do write every now and then . . .

Congressman Randy Hultgren (R-IL-14). Spoke with Kyle. Tried to impress upon him that I appreciated the congressman’s yes vote on CCB, and that there was NO REASON to dilute that vote with a yes vote today on the Speaker’s latest plan. Unfortunately, Kyle made it seem like the congressman was undecided. That is in contrast to a Chicago Tribune article this morning which suggested that he was a fairly solid no vote. Be strong, Congressman Hultgren.
HOLD THE LINE!

Barry.

I am as frustrated as any commenter here. I have contacted my rep to remind him of his promise to cut spending and asked him to continue to hold the line. I think it would be useful to discuss a bit of reality.

The democrats in the Senate are for the most part the same people who voted to pass Obamacare, over the strongest, most active, and most vocal voter opposition at least since before world war II. They interpreted the results of the 2010 election, as a revolt, and have doubled down on the same policies and positions that enraged their constituents. There is absolutely no change of CCB ever passing this Senate. A balanced budget amendment would fly though ratification. It would end the political power of the democrat party within four years and consign it to the trash heap for decades. This is far more important to the left than Obamacare. If public pressure could not stop Obamacare, no amount will push CCB or anything close to it through the Senate. NO AMOUNT.

Similarly the Senate’s only purposel is to protect Obama from ending up with a bill on his desk, other than one they produce.

However much I dislike it, that is reality. We hold only the house. Repealing Obamacare and Dodd Frank, and ending the regulatory madness, real spending cuts, entitlement reform, all depend on gaining a reasonable Senate majority and taking the White House in 2012.

Until now we have been winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the middle of the electorate. The fight by the house has exposed the reality of the left and Obama’s incompetence. However most of these people don’t attach the same importance to cutting spending today as we do. They don’t see a huge difference between doing it now and say 2013. For them it is an abstract. We have won their support by convincing them that high spending, high taxes, and high debt is bad for jobs. Jobs are by far their largest concern. Right now these voters, who will decide the 2012 elections, see the Republicans as far more competent at restoring jobs in this country. That perception of greater competence also applies to the debt, budgets, taxes, the economy, and even healthcare. It is that perception of competence that will bring us victory in 2012. It MUST NOT be lost.

In this context I want to ask the following questions.

If we win the debt fight (whatever than means with CCB unable to be passed) can we end up so damaged that a disgusted middle voter decides that there is no difference?

If ultimately the house is going to have to compromise, are we better off to compromise now reserving another bite at this apple next year while we still have the better voter perception or push this as long as possible and risk losing the very perception of republican competence that the media is trying to change?

Let’s assume for the moment that the compromises, folds, caves, pick your adjective. Other than true RINOs, it is more important to focus on winning the Senate and WH, than punishing house republicans by spending precious resources primarying them?

The debt ceiling fight is a battle; It is not the war; Winning it will not decide this war; Neither will losing it unless we let it splinter us. Losing in 2012 may well lose us the war. I would hope we’d keep this in mind.

If we are the adults in the room, at some point are we not obligated to face reality?

Why would the Tea Party have a rally to do that?

1. The Senate will not pass the Ryan budget, CCB, or the new Boehner plan as written. If the Senate can pass anything (see #5 ) it will be to the left of anything the House has passed.

2. The Senate will not pass the Reid plan or the Gang of Six plan. Whatever the Senate passes will be to the right of those plans.

3. With all due respect to Erick, the Boehner bill is not the vote on which conservatives must hold the line. The conservatives must hold the line when the House votes on whatever Senate sends back to them.

4. If the Boehner bill fails to pass the House, every liberal in America and the MSM will blame whatever happens on August 3 on the Republicans. Reid can have the Senate vote the Boehner bill down, but at that point the Republicans will have sent 3 alternatives to the Senate, and it will be hard to argue that all of them should be dead on arrival.

5. It is much harder for the Senate to pass something, anything, than to defeat something. For the Senate to pass anything will force Reid to confront divisions within the Democratic caucus, and to avoid a Republican filibuster. Reid will want to load down one of the House bills with obnoxious liberal amendments. Which of the House bills Reid uses as the framework on which to hang his amendments matters less than whether the Senate can pass them at all. If the Senate cannot pass something, then the Democrats at least share blame for whatever happens on Aug. 3.

6. Whatever emerges from the Senate (if anything) will be the real test for holding the line.

7. Obama will sign whatever Congress sends him.

8. This is about tactics. Charges of “sellout”, RINO, etc. are not appropriate here, IMHO.

1.) Remove baseline as the mode of budgeting.
2.)Tax increases will only come into effect after spending cuts, i.e. actual, not outlying year spending is reduced by$X billion, then we can talk about raising taxes. Those taxes are put to a voter each time and have their own separate up or down vote.

Thoughts?

Since Bernake pumped $2T into our economy, we are facing higher interest rates and possibly hyperinflation. I see the dems signing onto Boehner’s plan “reluctantly”. Once it is passed and signed, Bernake starts raising rates and the media starts talking up the “terrible” inflation – all of it caused, of course, by the EVIL Republicans. In addition, they will also talk up the credit downgrade even tho dems offered nothing to do otherwise. I think we may be screwed.