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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Worst Negotiators

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  July 29th, 2011 at 04:46 AM  | 

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I cannot decide who the worst negotiators are, Republican leaders or House conservatives.

John Boehner’s plan couldn’t get the votes last night so Boehner had to agree to add language conditioning a vote on a balanced budget amendment — an amendment House Republicans said could not pass so there was no reason to pursue Cut, Cap, and Balance. The vote will now be today.

The vote now is all about fear and messaging — fear of blame and a very weak message. In fact, the House will send a weaker message than Cut, Cap, and Balance. It’ll also get less votes in either House than Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Last night on Sean Hannity’s show, Senator Rand Paul said around a dozen Republican Senators will vote against Boehner’s plan. And they must. Because if they do not, I have a sneaking suspicion that Harry Reid will strip out the balanced budget amendment language and the second vote on the debt ceiling, send it back to the House, and get it passed with a hundred Democrats.House Conservatives who don’t like the plan, but are willing to trade their vote for a balanced budget amendment are about to be force fed the plan they don’t like by Harry Reid and all with their help.

Frankly, the House Republicans have turned this vote into a cult of personality vote. It is not about saving the Republic, fighting Obama, or cutting the debt. And you remember that when they vote for it.

John Boehner has convinced House Republicans that they are both getting a good deal and that if it fails, Boehner himself is in jeopardy. So House Republicans will vote for the plan, see the Senate either kill it or butcher it, and then be stuck. It’s all about John Boehner now — nothing else.

To console themselves, Boehner is going to give House conservatives their balanced budget amendment language and then have them do the very thing they promised they’d fight — fund Obamacare.

Yes, you see that’s the dirty little secret glossed over by everyone. John Boehner’s plan contemplates Obamacare’s continuation. And House Republicans will sell their souls today for a balanced budget amendment that the Senate will strip from the plan in the best case scenario.

I think the House Republicans are the worst negotiators, but doggoneit — imagine if John Boehner had been half as aggressive with the Democrats as he has been these past 24 hours with House conservatives.

Oh, and I still don’t think anyone can answer this question: if the House GOP only controls one half of one branch of the federal government and has no power, why the hell do they keep throwing plans against the wall hoping something will stick? Do they have Stockholm Syndrome?

House conservatives should vote no.

A balanced budget amendment is worth fighting for. A balanced budget amendment is worth holding the line for. But it is not worth being fooled into voting for a plan by it including a BBA on a subsequent debt ceiling vote knowing with 100% certainty that not only will Harry Reid strip it out in the Senate, but that your own leadership will sell you out on when it comes back to you. Your symbolic vote — and it is a symbolic vote — will be used to play you as a fool.

Hold the freaking line. The negotiating hand improves once you move past fear of the unknown.

Oh, and while you are at it, get rid of the deficit commission that you know good and well will raise taxes. It is only as strong as its weakest link.

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COMMENTS

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  • ideasmatter

    Since none of these bills do any good in the mid term, and do actual damage in the long term, I wish they would just get it over with, it’s just a FUBAR situation (financially unstable bills are recurrent).

    We (conservatives) are now on record as being unyolked from bad Republican ideas. Let them eat their cake now with their statist allies on the left in Congress. We hobbits united.

    Both parties are much weaker and susceptable to electoral punishment after this debt debate. Thats always healthy for the people. As said once in the movie Godfather, ‘these things have to happen from time to time…it gets rid of all the bad blood.’

  • bcomber38

    when is this farce ever going to stop.These republicans can’t stick to their guns.Baehner is a wussy .I think no matter what the house does reid will strip it one way or another.I am so fed up I hope the whole place shuts down.We need changesin our leadership.And fast.

  • jout99

    to fund the gov’t THIS MONTH!!!

    Then tell him to get the Senate to pass the bills the House has already approved.

    Then next month ask for something else, like cap spending. The next month, cut this. And so forth.

    After a few months of wearing them down, go for the big stuff.

  • bk

    Otherwise why wouldn’t Harry Reid have opened debate on his bill instead of having the Senate sit around for 24 hours doing absolutely nothing? After all, isn’t every minute critical to keep us from going into the abyss? That’s what we keep hearing.

    At least Boehner is being an adult and trying to pass something. Reid is being a snake and a liar, not that that’s anything new.

  • red_oakster

    Boehner will get his majority today because markets would implode if he didn’t. Erick’s right that it may take a fig leaf or two to get to 217, but he’s wrong that “holding the line” will help conservatives. It would precipitate a financial mess, put the Democrats in total control and push enough of the real moderates Republicans in the House into the arms of the Pelosi Democrats to effectively lose control of the House. The fear of the market has brought Boehner’s whip count to one or two short of a majority. He’ll get the remaining one or two votes he needs today.

  • davesinsanantonio

    “trying to pass something”. After all, it is the Libs who “would rather be wrong than do nothing”.

    Why is doing “something” seen as preferable to doing the right thing???

    It is this panic mode, Chicken Little like, “Do something!, Do SOMETHING!!!”, attitude that does not seem “adult”. It certainly isn’t “backbone” like.

  • http://www.imperfectamerica.com imperfectamerica

    There is no reason for conservatives to pass Boehner’s bill. They already passed two good bills, CCB and Paul Ryan’s. Let the chips fall where they may. Let the Smithsonian close up shop and let the Department of Education lock their doors. Let the liberals make the case for their spending.

    There is more than enough evidence of government spending that can be cut, someone needs to make that the focus of this debate rather than worrying about the sky falling. It won’t fall. The country may however if someone doesn’t put a line in the sand somewhere. Now is not as good as two years ago, but it’s better than next year.

  • bk

    Why would the markets implode if it doesn’t pass the House when Reid and Obama have both said they’d kill it the second it reaches them? Wouldn’t the markets already have factored in that his bill is dead one way or another?

  • bk

    Meanwhile Reid is playing political games with the idea of doing nothing except giving carte blanche to Obama and avoiding any substantive votes for his vulnerable Dems in 2012.

    One could argue whether this is the best we can get, but at least Boehner is being reasonably honest about it and getting slammed on all sides, while Reid is being a total sleazebag (as usual) and no one in the press is calling him on it (as usual).

  • http://thecorruptworld.blogspot.com/ wayneinnh

    From today’s Manchester Union Leader: “?We are here to compromise. We are here to work with the other side of the aisle,? Guinta, who represents the First Congressional District, said on the floor of the House Thursday.”

    No Frank, you are not there to compromise. You are there to rein in the spending.

    Hopefully, enough of the freshman class will not succumb to the DC mentality and give in. Next year, we need to get good primary challengers to get rid of the phonies masquerading as conservatives.

  • http://teapartisan.wordpress.com Loren Heal

    … will win in 2012.

    Boehner and company are fighting extra super hard to avoid being it.

  • smitch61

    I watched McCain the maverick last night state that “we have to do this, and then fight in a few months.”… yeah John, just like Obamacare that is still sitting out there.. Ann Coulter said ” we have one third of the branches of government”… no shi& Ann, this stupid person already knew that… The GOP are less trustworthy than the democrat party, it always plays out this way.

  • ghostship

    Just to prove that we on the Right aren’t completely unreasonable I have a proposal that I would support.

    $1.00 in real cuts.

    One measly dollar.

    I’d support a debt limit increase if they agree that the amount the government can spend in 2012 is to be $1.00 less than the amount to be spent in 2011.

    The sad thing is that would be the largest spending cut Washington has made in decades.

    Come on, it’s just one lousy dollar.

    Is that too extreme?

    I’d love to hear the Left explain how that’s unreasonable.

  • smagar

    If memory serves, the Senate didn’t full debate Cut-Cap-and-Balance…they just passed a motion to table it.

    Fine. If we’re concerned about a hundred House Democrats voting in a bad bill that Harry Reid sends them, simply refuse to schedule a vote on it.

    (Come to think of it, I expect that John Boehner could get 217 votes to defeat Harry Reid’s bill, once he explains what Reid is trying to do).

    If the Senate Dems want to scream that the House GOP is playing games with the process, here’s how the House GOP should respond:
    - You smothered CCB, so we smothered your bill. Hey, it worked for you…
    - Come talk to us once you produce a budget. HOW long has it been?

    Now, to be sure, Boehner is going to have to deploy LOTS of well-spoken House GOP members, with fire in their belly, to defend what the House GOP is doing. I’m sure he has them—let’s get them out there.

  • anjinconsulting

    The markets are reacting to what they see coming soon to a bank near you: higher interest rates, and higher taxes.

    Alexis de Tocqueville said it over a hundred years ago: “The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money.”

    Uncle Sugar cannot pay the bills he has and continue to dole out largesse in the fashion politicans have come to know and love; and that parasites like some of their constiuents expect.

  • rayhinkle

    Well, here we go. The responsible people in the room are trying to figure this out. Maybe this is a situation which they feel some responsibility in resolving as adults do. The children, Obama et al. democrats in general have no fiscal responsibility. It’s the adults check book. So…………. here we go again. The adults will get blamed by an irresponsible media. Blame Blame so forth. (By the way, this is a similar tactic used in post Weimar republic days and the NAZI assumption of power, read William Shirer’s book “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich”, also typical of most socialist enterprises) If you make it a dirty looking fight people will get upset and take anything to get it over. This is exactly what is occurring right now. Our Republic requires that people be responsible and to express their free speech. It is a dirty process, but it must be this way. Freedom comes with responsibility, the socialist does not believe in the individual only the state, so fiscal issues are of no matter. But the individual must be fiscally responsible to be free. This is what the fight is about. Are we to be free and responsible for our own lives? Or are we going to continue to be slaves to the state? Seems to me that all else, markets, media etc. is only a reaction to what occurs here.

  • Green_Lantern

    But Boehner *should* be passing what is right. Harry Reid is playing the “blame game”, as in “who is going to get the blame”. Our side needs to *stop* worrying about the blame, and save this country.

  • JSobieski

    Aside from avoiding the disruptions caused by hitting the debt ceiling, I don’t understand how Boehner’s plan helps Obamacare.

    This needs to be better explained.

  • Carner_York

    that Obama will invoke the 14th amendment (albeit unconstitutionally) and raise the debt limit if no deal is reached. Now that would be interesting. Would the American people see it as heroic or despotic?

  • clintonformccain

    It is evident that the Republicans do not have a working majority in the House and therefore cannot deliver votes. This means that the House is less able to do anything, including chip away at the provisions of Obamacare.

  • izoneguy

    House Republicans Vote to Overturn ObamaCare in Symbolic Move

    You should have wrote this:

    It is evident that the Republicans do not have a working majority in the House Senate and therefore cannot deliver votes. This means that the House Senate is less able to do anything, including chip away at the provisions of Obamacare.

  • Praying

    (she says, beating head against a brick wall…)

    Witness, friends, the Stupid Party in action.

  • kyconservative

    If Republican LEADERSHIP (and I use that term loosely) would follow conservative principles of limited government then LEADERSHIP would have nearly unanimous support for its proposals. Because LEADERSHIP has chosen to follow statist, corporatist ideas, they find themselves in this mess.

  • kyconservative

    If Republican LEADERSHIP (and I use that term loosely) would follow conservative principles of limited government then LEADERSHIP would have nearly unanimous support for its proposals. Because LEADERSHIP has chosen to follow statist, corporatist ideas, they find themselves in this mess.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • izoneguy

    If Obama does a Hugo Chavez and raise the debt limit then where will the money come from? Raising the debt limit says you can borrow more money.
    I don’t think China will come rushing in to help Obama. If Obama cranks up the printing press then his Presidency is truly over.

  • Conservative_not_Republican

    Do we not have votes in the Senate because Harry Reid tells us that? Or do we not have the votes because Mitch McConnell can’t figure out a way to make 23 Dems up for reelection ever take a tough vote?

  • clintonformccain

    You no longer have a working majority in the House. You can’t deliver the votes. That dilutes the power of that should come from being the majority party.

  • acat

    Obama’s telegraphed that he’ll sign whatever the Senate passes.

    Seems to me, Boehner ought to be pressing Reid to call an actual vote on CCB or Ryan’s Roadmap, both of which passed the House already.

    All Reid is doing is watching Boehner alienate the Tea Party, which makes 2012 harder for conservatives, and waiting for Boehner to put through something so he can amend it to look like what we’ve seen of the Reid bill and send it to reconciliation.

    The question is whether we’re going to have another discussion about the debt ceiling prior to the 2012 election or not. This cat, had he a vote, would vote yes.

    Mew

  • carolina

    I think that is what I just heard.
    …..because the House didn’t pass their Bill.

  • acat

    This may end up being the “Michael Jordan in a hurricane” scenario Obama chooses.

    As J. Sobieski put it, in an unwinnable scenario, change the scenario! If challenged to a free-throw contest with Michael Jordan, demand that it take place in the middle of a hurricane – randomizes the results and anything can happen.

    Taking this over to the Roberts court will .. randomize the results. It won’t necessarily break Obama’s way, but it could…

    Mew

  • bclare

    York is correct. If Harry Reid can continue to rope-a-dope the House and run the clock out… In rides The Obama Calvary on their stallions to save the country by invoking the 14th Amendment. It doesn’t have to constitutional, all it has to be is action. Obama knows damn well he’ll be heralded by the MSM as the savior.

    The Supreme Court will eventually shoot it down but the image will be cast.

    The Grand Plan Along has been the reelection of Barack Obama.

  • JSobieski

    It would violate the law (statutory, not constitutional law), but the 14th Amendment constitutional argument isn’t a serious argument and people would doubt the validity of the debt. Also it is unclear what the legal remedy would be for such an act. Kind of like asking what is the legal remedy for the failure of the Senate to pass a budget? Or what if Obama doesn’t comply with the War Powers Act re: Libya?

    If they raid the t-bills already in the SS trust fund and sell the t-bills, they can get $2,4T.

    Some caveats:
    I don’t think Obama’s hand is so bad that he wold do this.
    I also think that Obama always overestimates himself.

    Nonetheless, the Michael Jordan in a hurricane scenario is always something to be considered.

  • kyconservative

    Under Article I, Section 7 of the constitution, I think a very strong argument can be made that any debt ceiling bill must originate in the House. This provision mentions “raising revenue” and raising the debt ceiling certainly seems to be a method of raising revenue by allowing the sale of Treasry bonds.

  • kyconservative

    Under Article I, Section 7 of the constitution, I think a very strong argument can be made that any debt ceiling bill must originate in the House. This provision mentions “raising revenue” and raising the debt ceiling certainly seems to be a method of raising revenue by allowing the sale of Treasry bonds.

  • izoneguy

    Then Obama is a real idiot.
    He cannot win if this is his plan.
    He might as well go on the road with Charlie Sheen
    and say “Winning” in every other paragraph he reads from TOTUS.

    The economy is much weaker than anyone thought and Obama & the democrats are pulling all the wrong moves. They will be lucky if all that happens is they lose an election.

  • JSobieski

    Whatever the current split on the Boehner plan, every R in the House supports the repeal of Obamacare.

  • JSobieski

    http://nation.foxnews.com/obamacare-repeal/2011/02/02/senate-rejects-gop-effort-repeal-obamacaresee-how-your-senator-voted

  • izoneguy

    and they are not going to provide cover for the democrats & Obama.

    Reid thinks he can come up with a plan that enough Republican house members will go for. I don’t think that will happen. The House needs to throw CC&B back over to the Senate and say this way or the highway. If Reid won’t hold a vote on CC&B then it will be evident to most Americans where the problem is. How many of those 23 democratic Senators up for re-election in 2012 will be willing to say no?

  • bbari

    Sorry Mr Speaker but you dropped the ball when you allowed Reid to table the House passed Cut Cap and Balance bill and capitulated returning to the House in an attempt to draft yet another bill. Sorry sir but you’re done as House Speaker. You need to be replaced by someone with some guts.
    At this point the only move for the House is to deliver a little note to old Harry Reid telling him “Senator, we the House have already given you our bill ….. it’s called Cut Cap and Balance ….. deal with it”.
    Let the Senate own the shut down along with their poor leader – Obama.

    Anthing else just kick’s the can down the road …. again. And we the people lose …. again.

  • acat

    … that the T-bills in the SS trust fund were “special”, that is that (a) only the SS trust fund could buy them and (b) the SS trust fund could not sell them on the open market.

    I forget where I read that, I believe it was at a point where we were discussing privatizing SS, and someone asked why we couldn’t just dump the entire “lock box” onto the market, take the ca$h, and put it into a series of locked down IRAs…. so either W or Reagan was POTUS at the time and things may have changed…

    Mew

  • mspector

    Nor is it necessarily a dirty word. A valid “compromise” simply represents a decision on how to move forward, made by opposing forces, while continuing to agree to disagree. But the essential thing to understand about compromise is that it really resolves nothing; it merely postpones the day of reckoning.

    In our present situation the day of reckoning is here. What we conservatives are learning from all this is not so much that Boehner is weak-kneed, but that he is in fact part of the problem because he is as dedicated to the Washington establishment as is Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. We keep saying that this is really about the size and scope of the federal government; I think we all know now where Boehner stands on that one.

    As for negotiating strategy and tactics, nothing works if you go in prepared to give up the ghost. But what we see here is Boehner allowing the Dems to make him negotiate against himself. Plan A, Dems say “no” but offer nothing in response, so Boehner comes up with Plan B. Dems say “no” but offer nothing in response, so Boehner comes up with Plan C. Dems will say “no” once again, but offer Plan C minus since now they know Boehner will do everything he can to push the conservatives into line and if he fails, it will be “proof” that those dirty old conservatives just won’t compromise. He will have succeeded in helping the Dems marginalize the Tea Party and he will still have his next tee time with Obama.

  • JSobieski

    In any case, its a statory provision—so if a statute privatized SS there wouldn’t be a problem doing whatever with the SS trust fund.

    I am going to look into this.

  • JSobieski

    My read of this is that either (1) only other trust funds can purchase “special issue”" t-bills or (2) a “special issue” t-bill loses is “speciality” once it is sold to a non-trust fund.

    http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html#n2

    “By law, income to the trust funds must be invested, on a daily basis, in securities guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the Federal government. All securities held by the trust funds are “special issues” of the United States Treasury. Such securities are available only to the trust funds.

    In the past, the trust funds have held marketable Treasury securities, which are available to the general public. Unlike marketable securities, special issues can be redeemed at any time at face value. Marketable securities are subject to the forces of the open market and may suffer a loss, or enjoy a gain, if sold before maturity. Investment in special issues gives the trust funds the same flexibility as holding cash.”

  • acat

    The bonds in the lock box are to hedge against inflation while minimizing risk of loss of principal. (or is it principle?)

    Please do look into this. I’m under the impression that the Dems, decades back, used this vehicle – restricted “special” bonds – to siphon the cash out of the “lock box” and into the general fund.

    Some of this came out when Al Gore started using the term “lock box”… so that might be a good place to start.

    Mew

  • Glaucon

    Good analysis there.

  • red_oakster

    When markets move up when it appears the Boehner proposal will pass and down when it looks to be in trouble, that’s evidence, not drivel.

    And speaking of drivel, Tocqueville never said any such thing. I’d recommend Democracy in America. It’s a great book and you might find it educational.

  • carolynr

    This is the only way that this problem can be solved. If they don’t…have the military take over the country and let Obama go back to Kenya

  • RDCook

    Bi partisan compromise = When the RINOs and Democrats agree to slightly remove their fondling hands from each other?s front pockets so they can reach further with their left to fleece the public.

  • Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

    The markets want the “crisis” to be gone. But investors in the market aren’t about to let a false crisis go to waste any more than Chicago democrats… the market will adjust. The debate will go on…

    The most detrimental issue is the loss of our Aaa credit rating… and passing a bill that fails to address spending constraint, is an automatic downgrade.

  • renny

    Ec. columnist John Crudele of the NYPost says it’s all whooey anyway.

    We have already passed the $14+ “LIMIT” and already are up $93 billion a day, i.e. the so-called limit was $14.294 trillion and we have already passed it on to $14.343 trillion, and we did that on July 25 and NOTHING HAPPENED. THE SKY DIDN’T FALL AND THE US EC. DID NOT COLLAPSE.

    The Treasury is doing this magic by borrowing against fed. pension funds BUT NOT COUNTING THAT BORROWING AS BORROWING.

    Meanwhile, FOX says o and Geithner (who should resign) are secretly reassuring banks that no default or horror is about to happen. Wouldn’t you have guessed?

  • 6eorge Jetson

    It’s like dejavu all over again.