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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Palin Factor

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  August 22nd, 2011 at 11:40 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

September 3rd is fast approaching and a lot of people are suddenly buzzing that she will declare her candidacy for the Presidency at that time. Karl Rove is convinced. John Fund of the Wall Street Journal thinks she will not run. A lot of Sarah Palin supporters have been telling me she’ll announce that day that she is running and I’m a fool and idiot for thinking she won’t run. Now her PAC is saying don’t believe the hype about September 3rd.

The analysts, etc. are really just looking at it being roughly the anniversary of her speech to the Republican Convention in 2008 and hearing all the Palin supporters say she will announce that day and Karl Rove’s desperation to get someone in the race to stop Rick Perry’s momentum and they are coming up with September 3rd as the date Palin will announce. And yes, in the past month, each time I’ve said I did not think Palin would run, I’ve had Palin supporters email me and say she would and they kept fixating on September 3rd, though no one officially in the Palin camp has said anything. Lots of Palin’s fans hopes and Karl Rove’s desire to stay in the mix have contributed to a lot of hype. (Full disclosure: all the emails I’ve been getting could just be Karl Rove and Bill Kristol via one outsourced spammer in Mumbai)

I am in the “will believe it when I see it” camp and still don’t think she will run. One factor that keeps me there is her Fox News contract. For multiple weeks prior to Mike Huckabee declaring he would not run, leaks starting coming out of Fox News that the pressure was on for him to make up his mind.

We are not hearing the same about Palin and that suggests to me she will not run.

But if I’m wrong and she does run, what of it? What will her impact be.

For a variety of reasons, I think Mitt Romney will be doing the Snoopy dance, which I think is why Karl Rove is so giddy that she is getting in (I’m definitely not the first to think this). Palin will shake up the race, but there are signs if she gets in she is going to have to lay out a careful strategy and not just rely on the force of her own personality and message.

First off is polling out of Iowa that Neil Stevens highlighted suggesting Iowa Republicans prefer that she not get in.

I think some of this is genuine, but I also think some of this is people who just gave up on her getting in.

More troubling for Palin is the Gallup polling that shows she has roughly 95% name recognition and only 12% support for the Presidency.

If Palin gets in, that number will change dramatically. We can kind of see this with Rick Perry. He polled rather low until he announced and then his support level increased. People don’t think Palin will run right now and if she got in, suddenly she would be much more popular.

But could she win? That is the million dollar question. Most polling suggests she cannot win the general election. Most polling also suggested Ronald Reagan could not win the general election in 1980. A fundamental difference was that Palin has 95% name recognition right now and Reagan was far from that recognition in 1980, even though he’d run in the 1976 primary against Ford. UPDATED: According to Nate Silver, Reagan’s name ID was actually 90%, which is different from what I’d read. But that then raises a more serious issue for Sarah Palin. Reagan had 28.8% support with 90% name ID and Sarah Palin has only 12% support at 95% name ID. As Silver points out, John McCain is the only Republican candidate in the modern era to win a GOP nomination despite not leading in the early polls. And McCain, unlike Palin, was in second place to Giuliani.

If Palin gets in, she is going to have to work very, very hard to rehabilitate her image among not just independent voters, but also — and I think this is key — conservative Republican voters who long ago gave up on the dream of a Palin 2012 candidacy and moved on. Many of those voters have signed on to other campaigns.

While Palin fans may assure themselves that those former Palin supporters would come home quickly, I don’t yet see any evidence for that and think, at least initially, Palin would drag down everyone except MItt Romney.

Don’t county Sarah Palin out. She keeps surprising everyone. But don’t count her the winner either.

Heck, right now, we’re all going to have wait and see whether or not she even runs come September 3rd. I’ll believe it when I see it.

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COMMENTS

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  • http://www.ArchitecturalShots.com mdyou

    OK, here’s one thought on the situation if Palin gets it. The press hates Bachman, Perry, and Palin. They’re not too fond of Mitt, actually.

    Independent voters appear to be s-l-o-w-l-y awakening, starting last November. While the mainstream media is hyperventilating constantly over so many despised Republican candidates, even the independents should see the cacophony for what it is – blind Obama boosterism.

    Bachman, Perry, and Palin would have a year to hammer The One for each and every one of his many errors, omissions, and lies. And since the press will be projectile vomiting about each one, they’ll be forced to report what the candidates have to say about Obama, producing further backlash. It could happen, couldn’t it?

  • victrola

    I’m amazed her fans aren’t more peeved with this ridiculous game she’s playing of whether she’s running or not. Some people think it’s a “genius” game she’s playing by keeping people guessing, but what’s the purpose of that? It seems to me it’s just about self-promotion and desperately trying to be a celebrity.

    I think the real grassroots/Tea Party wing has moved on with other candidates. I have major concerns over Michelle Bachman’s electability, but she brings everything Palin does except she has much better grasp on public policy, has an even more conservative record (like not supporting TARP), and is a real workhorse. I would also argue Bachmann has a MUCH better chance in a general than Palin (but that’s not saying much)

    I’m sure I’ll get flamed for this, but Palin is looking more and more like a Newt Gingrich-type figure of our Party that’s more interested in her career outside of politics and simply trying to capture as much free airtime as possible.

    I’m still in love with the idea that in order to enter any GOP Primary Debate you have to sign a contract that you won’t sign any book or TV deals for 2 years. You’d really get an idea of the serious players in a hurry.

  • Ghost of John Brown

    If Sarah gets in, (or Ryan or Christie for that matter) then an already somewhat fractured conservative field gets even more fractured. We still have the hangers on such as Santorum and Cain, who don’t stand a chance of getting the nomination either, but are probably angling for an appointment or an ambassadorship (If you look it up, Cain came out and said that is why he flirted with a run in 1990).

    Those two, along with Newt just need to get a dose of reality and get out.

    There are too many conservative saps that keep hearing the Main Stream Media talk about Palin, Christie and Ryan – Wake up people – they are TRYING to fracture us.

  • danatcofo

    I kind of look at it this way, we have a strong and very electable person in Rick Perry and Palin has shown in the past that she will endorse those candidates over the more purist ones. I think that if she does this, the entire Palin underground will rush to Perry and honestly, that level of enthusiasm isn’t going to be overcome when combined with his strong numbers (IMO).

    Oh by Palin underground I mean all the people who are preparing for a Palin candidacy unofficially. There are many of them.. I know half a dozen groups around the country personally who are preparing and are not part of her organization in any form because they have never been in politics to begin with.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Pre-campaign, Palin was close to 20% in GOP polls. In lastest poll, Palin was 5th in poll of Iowa republicans, just behind Ron Paul, but #1 in terms of those saying they wished she would not run.

    - In 2009: “A new Iowa Poll finds that Sarah Palin has a 68 percent favorable rating among Iowa Republicans”
    She had great favorability.

    Now:
    “Sometimes the inclusion of non-candidates skews a poll. For the question of what candidate Iowa Republicans don?t want, one non-candidate is defining the poll. Sarah Palin wins a full 25% of the question, well ahead of Newt Gingrich?s 16%, and Jon Huntsman?s 14%. Michele Bachmann tied for fourth at 12%, Mitt Romney finished sixth at 7%, and Rick Perry tied for eighth at 3%.

    We Ask America then went for the candidates Iowa Republicans prefer. Interestingly, the top three finished in a different order from their do-not-want finishes. Rick Perry did win convincingly at 29%, but Michele Bachmann jumped to second at 17%, with Mitt Romney third at 15%. Sarah Palin finishes at 7%, behind Ron Paul and Other.”

    From:

    http://unlikelyvoter.com/2011/08/22/the-candidates-iowa-republicans-dont-want/

    So Perry and Bachmann at #1 and #2, with a combined support of almost 50%. Palin’s supporters have indeed moved on. They got tired of waiting for ‘will she run?’ If she runs, she will have to win back those voters.

    If Palin was serious about running to win, she would have announced by now IMHO. If Palin enters, she will not dominate the Tea Party vote, as Bachmann has really shined, and Perry has made a solid start.

    What has held back Palin’s support and will ultimately make her a ‘hard to nominate’ candidate is the media number done on her and her own celebrity-focussed actions that repel swing voters and make her less electable. Her entry would split Tea party voters and in the end may help Romney more than anyone else.
    “Some people think it?s a ?genius? game she?s playing by keeping people guessing, but what?s the purpose of that?”

    That’s called rationalization. In July, Perry met with fundraisers, supporters, others and made a LOT of calls, to determine what it would take and what his chances are. Then he decided. I have to think that Perry spoke to Palin before announcing and that Perry wouldn’t be running unless he was sure her entry wouldn’t hurt them both and/or she wasn’t entering at all. Probably the latter, and possibly even consider a future Palin endorsement of Perry down the line.

    Meanwhile, Palin has laid little of the campaign infrastructure and fundraising groundwork to actually run. A run like this needs $40m or more. Consider this: She had since 2009!! If she announced early, she would have been the frontrunner or at least made it a Romney-Palin 1on1.

    She didnt. So we have wishful thinking among her fans and some of the “Palin is running” from Rove etal is to tamp down the Perry surge, as the Perry, Palin and Bachmann electorate overlaps.

    Bottom line: Palin is not running, but if she does, her run may end up as desired and hoped-for but as disappointing as Fred Thompson’s.

  • nativeconservative

    that she wants to spend some time with her family before her school age children go back to school or before her entire family once again get slammed by the media thugery (yes, that isn’t a word).

    Either way she goes (in or out), she and her entire family as well as any close friend that she has had from childhood has been vetted by the democratic machine of the Obama regime. She still stands by America and its people and if she is still willing to server her, I am willing to put my time and effort behind getting her elected. We need more people like her in ELECTED office.

    I for one, hope she runs so people who thinks she is playing ridiculous games can go back to playing their own.

  • nativeconservative

    that she wants to spend some time with her family before her school age children go back to school or before her entire family once again get slammed by the media thugery (yes, that isn’t a word).

    Either way she goes (in or out), she and her entire family as well as any close friend that she has had from childhood has been vetted by the democratic machine of the Obama regime. She still stands by America and its people and if she is still willing to server her, I am willing to put my time and effort behind getting her elected. We need more people like her in ELECTED office.

    I for one, hope she runs so people who think she is playing ridiculous games can go back to playing their own.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I’m not a fan of head-to-head polling this early in any race, but at least Rasmussen polls consistently and there is a trend you can follow in their polling. They released this one today.

    If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    Last month, Obama posted a 47% to 38% lead over Palin, the GOP?s unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2008.

    Palin earns support from 62% of Republicans, while 88% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

    So, bottom line, BO is over 50% against Palin and has improved his margins vs one month ago. This is following nothing but bad news for POTUS over the last month.

    She only gets support from 62% of Republicans, a number that frankly surprises me since even “I” (and Art Chance) would both vote for her over BO, and 30% of Independents, which doesn’t surprise me.

    As to the question, “will she run”, who knows. A better case is being made that she most likely won’t, but it’s still all guesswork. I think a better case can be made that if she does run, and win the nomination, Obama will likely mop the floor with her. He’s going to have a billion plus dollars to spend. She doesn’t respond to criticism well and can’t match his war chest even if she did.

  • azaeroprof

    This is the most cogent analysis re:Palin I’ve seen on RS in a while. The “believe it when I see it” strategy is a good one. The only place I differ with you is that I’m putting 70% odds on her getting in.

    Yes, she doesn’t look good in current polls, and that is probably weighing on her decision. Personally, I’m less concerned about that. As you say, the moment she announces, the polls will reset. She will still have an uphill battle, and a good argument can be made that Perry is a stronger candidate. But Perry hasn’t been vetted to the extent that Palin has, and more importantly hasn’t had the chance to develop scar tissue to protect against further attacks.

    Gallup today has Obama at 50-33 over Palin. Given the fact that incumbents usually poll at their ceiling, and the fact that Palin today is much much weaker than she would be as a successful GOP nominee, that poll isn’t nearly as bad as it sounds.

    I also don’t think a Palin entry would help Romney nearly as much as you and some others do. But most importantly, a Palin entry would instantly ratchet up the media attention on the race. While some characterize this as Palin ‘sucking the air’ from the other candidates, I think the opposite will be true. The added attention will be good for all the major candidates (same reason car dealers all cluster together) and IMHO will steer the whole conversation to the right.

    So I welcome (and hope for) a Palin entry, no surprise there. But this Palinite pledges here and now to support the GOP nominee even if it isn’t Palin. And even if it’s also not Perry.

  • azaeroprof

    I hadn’t seen the internals of the Gallup poll. I simply don’t believe that, if Palin were actually the nominee (and had thereby run a strong enough primary campaign to win) that she would only garner 62% of the Republican vote. And that 30% Indie number, which also doesn’t surprise me either, is a floor number. She has nowhere to go but up on both of those numbers. We may disagree on her prospects for doing so, though.

    If your personal criticisms of her are accurate, that would all come out in the primary campaign, especially with a strong Perry candidacy emerging.

  • azaeroprof

    The more I reflect on that 62% number, the more I think there is an interesting phenomenon going on here. It actually doesn’t have to do specifically with Palin, though I suspect she is affected by it more than the others.

    Some number of Republicans, particularly those supporting a certain candidate already, are probably telling pollsters that they would NOT support other candidates in a general election matchup. The purpose here would be to drive the polls to show that only their candidate is well-positioned to win the general election. (It also may reflect what they have been told by the media about who could when the general election.)

    This also helps explain why ‘generic Republican’ does better against Obama than any of the individual candidates. I mean, do you really believe that ANY GOP nominee would only get 62% of Republican votes? against Obama?!?! Pppphhht.

  • gawken

    Assume Palin announces on Labor Day. The we take a poll about 4 days later of likely GOP voters.

    It’d be like this:

    Palin 35%
    Perry 25%
    Mitt 15%
    Paul <10%
    Bachman<5%
    Everyone else a few%

    Palin, ever since 2008, has a hard core GHOP constituency of 35-40% of voters. If she enters, she removes any reason for a Bachmann candidacy. She also puts Mitt into third place..and almost takes him out of the race.

    Her choice now, is NOT to run, and let Perry hace it, or run, and it's a two person race..

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    that I haven’t seen the internals of Rasmussen. You’ve gotta be a subscriber and I’m not so I have no idea who they are polling (RVs, LVs, whoever) nor do I have a clue what their RDI breakdown is. I’m relying, foolishly perhaps, on my opinion that Ras polls are a good indicator, especially when they produce a trend.

    With respect to the end result come election day, certainly 62% is a sub-basement level of Rs. My concern, and the only “evidence” is anecdotal which makes it automatically disregardable for me, is that the “stay-home” factor for Palin would be significantly higher than the same for Obama. I’m basing my concern here on F/U polling for both. Palin isn’t real likable and apparently, people still like BO. I personally have a hard time processing that, but that’s what the polling shows, and it holds up over a very long time.

    In addition, as far as 30% being the floor for Palin for Indies, I think you’re right. Again, my opinion is that she won’t boost that much, I can’t see her getting over 40%. Reason is that to win the nomination, she will have to run to right of the current field which will simply reinforce the opinion (which I don’t share) that she is a far-right conservative, out of touch with mainstream America and dangerous. So far, since she resigned as Governor of Alaska, she has yet to make any sort of gesture or outreach to either Independents or moderates. I have a hard time seeing her doing it, or if she tries, being successful, after a bruising primary.

    But, we’ll see.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    50-33 is only within the MOE after about 5 vodka tonics.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    According to this.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    nt

  • pantera

    What about the debates? People seem to forget that Sarah’s quick,concise,common sense conservative answers will shine compared to obama’s stammering,pauses of silence,big gov,class warfare rhetoric.

  • azaeroprof

    I think our only disagreement is the “stay-home” factor. I don’t see many GOPers staying home with Obama on the ticket. The Dems would indeed probably be a bit more motivated to vote against Palin than, say, Romney. But I’m betting Perry would get them out pretty well, too. But I also think there are a lot of pro-Palin folks who are not regular voters and might stay home if she is not the nominee (I think those people are fools, btw!).

    And let’s not overlook the historical nature if she is on the ticket. She may not poll well among women, but in a close race, it wouldn’t take many folks voting on the basis of gender to make a difference. And I believe there would be a fair number of those, especially if Obama is the alternative.

  • runner12

    You would almost assuredly hand the nomination to Romney. I have great respect for Palin, but the reality is that she cannot win. The McCain campaign torpedoed her bid for future office in 2008. My recommendation is that she run for Senate, rehabilitate her image, and run at a later date.

    I know I may receive some flack for this, but I am concerned that it will be difficult for a woman to win in 2012. I am saying this as a woman. It is unfair, but I think there is still a lot of sexism in the good ol’ boys club of each party. Look what they did to both Hillary and Palin in ’08 and more recently to Bachman. A double-standard definitely exists.

  • aesthete

    If it’s in any way close to accurate, 33% is going to be very hard to build off of in a few short months, especially when Palin already has very high name recognition.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    From Hotair, who has access to the internals…

    The internals of the poll make a Palin challenge to Obama look daunting indeed. She loses young voters by a whopping 12/64 and thirtysomethings 30/50. All ethnic demos go to Obama, including a 43/38 edge among white voters. In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided. Palin loses every income demographic as well.

    It’s all the way at the bottom. I, as I suspect you do, take the numbers of “conservatives” with a grain of salt. I’m basing that on the fact that I don’t know any conservative, including solid church-going types, who wouldn’t vote for Lucifer before they voted for Obama.

    The other numbers only surprise me a little, but I think they are directionally correct.

  • aeaeren

    If Palin gets in then I am voting in this order:

    1) Palin
    2) Perry
    3) Bachmann
    4) Whoever is NOT Obama or a Democrat!

    Polls right now saying she can’t win is rubbish and we all know it. As the economy keeps crashing and Obama keeps blaming everyone and as more and more people realize he is completely void of any ideas other then his race baiting, class warfare junk he is toast. This vacation he is on right now is really TICKING OFF a lot of us! It completely shows he has no CLUE and could CARELESS what we think or feel. A crushed soda can will beat him. He is the worst choice of anyone PERIOD. If he were smart and truly cared he would quit his reelection bid now and try and get Hillary to run to save the Democratic party. HE is DONE, the drones who can afford to get to the poles come Nov ’12 will not be close to enough to save him.

    Palin has a NATURAL Grassroots ground game. They are extremely dedicated and loyal to her and have been since day she was annouced as VP candidate. Rabid dogs you might say and there are ALOT of them. She didn’t lose in ’08, McLame did! I voted for John because he wasn’t Barrack not because he inspired me whatsoever. With Palin it will only require a “I am running for POTUS” to rev that campaign engine up. My father who was a life long Democrat has swapped parties and hates everyone running for President except Palin and there are alot of people like my father around the country. Too many people feel our current crop just doesn’t get we are tired of the good ole boys and there gang of merry men. I want someone who has a proven record of taking on the gang and beating them. Nothing is going to change if we keep electing people to be President but give them Cantors and McConnells.THIS IS what has changed in my opinion, we learned the power of the Primary (see ya Charlie Crist! I couldn’t vote for Rubio FAST ENOUGH) The issue isn’t the President as much as it is the Congress and it’s rules of who gets to be leader. A bunch of rich insiders who are just trying to cling to power while moving the Statist agenda forward. I know I am tired of gobs of laws being passed each year bannning my leaf blower and other nonsense but I am having to split my time fighting with those idiots in Washington DC because they are now banning my light bulbs when it isn’t there job to be doing it in the first place. I pray we get someone in there who burns down that city and frees us!

    Next Palin connects with people vey easily and as more people listen to her the more they find out they have been had by all the crap that has been spewed out by the establishment Republicans and Media. Who else other then Obama had 60+ Thousand people come to hear what she had to say? And remember how many of us wanted McCain to let her loose instead of having to be strapped down to his stupid campaign guidelines. Anyways let’s see how many show up on the 3rd and then tell me she can’t win.

    Perry is a great candidate but he has a few issues with Big Government that will have to be watched and concerns me. Also I am a tad bit burnt out on Cowboys from Texas. Let’s give someone else a shot and someone who is willing to fight not spin like Romney. Although I doubt Rick is going to roll over so it’s a plus with me when he blasts the Fed and keeps on trampling over the rest of the Statist Machine.

    Bachmann is another great candidate but no one from the House has won since the 1800s and she will have issues with no Executive Experience. We have been shown what happens when someone with no Experience becomes POTUS and this will hurt Bachmann some in my opinion.

    Anyways I think some of you totally underestimate Sarah, she has fire and FIRES up people and she does it by believing in America and the people! Some people want to be President for the Power, I feel Sarah wants it to restore what America was and should be. I feel some of this with Perry but the trust factor just isn’t there yet and besides his vetting with the lame stream media is really just beginning. What else can the MSM come up with for Palin and actually have someone believe them? There isn’t much more vetting that can be done for her, just the truth is left!

  • Whacker77

    I’m not a fan of Sarah Palin. I thought she was a great choice by a faltering McCain campaign, but’s it been downhill since her convention speech with me. She’s made too many tactical errors and has done tremendous harm to her image with the voters who decide elections.

    While I appreciate her unabashed conservatism, I don’t believe non-stop combativeness for the sake of combativeness is the way to go. It turns off a lot of people and I can even include myself in that group on rare occasion. I like aggressiveness, but not complete combativeness. For too long, she had nothing to offer but conservative catch phrases and that indicated to me she wasn’t doing the real work needed.

    Palin’s image with Independent voters is a wreck and it’s not going to improve in a contested primary where she’ll surely throw lots of sharp elbows. I don’t know how she recovers from quitiing her job as governor with that group or with many conservatives. That awful video taped speech she gave after Giffords’ shooting won’t help either.

    If she gets in the race, I think it spells doom for Republicans in 2012. Why? I don’t think she’ll know when to quit and I would expect she would fight all the way to the convention, no matter how quixotic. The net result would be a shattered nominee, likely Mitt, and the potential for disgruntled Sarah supporters to push for a third party.

    Still, I think Palin probably gets in because this is it for her. If she doesn’t run, she becomes marginalized and insignficant with the national media. If she does run, she gets all of the attention at least for another year, if she goes all the way to the convention.

    I don’t know who’s advising Palin, but reality seems to be missing if they think she can win a national campaign.

  • victrola

    My guess is Republicans are overstating their opposition to Palin, but the question is, do you really want to run a candidate that has such incredible problems within your own Party that people are telling pollsters they would vote for Obama?

    I don’t think any Presidential candidate, Republican or Democrat in this day of age can get under 43% of the vote. What I do think can happen is a large swath of Republicans will sit on their hands, not write checks, and just not make it to the polls, hurting down ticket candidates nationwide.

    It gets to the point where you can argue all you want that the feelings against Palin are unfair and overstated, but only a fool would rush in with numbers like that and 100% name id.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    a line of cocaine as a chaser.

  • ruexperienced

    but she went pit bull and never came back.

    Its too bad.

  • ruexperienced

    and her husband Todd.

    IMO she needs to broaden her base of advisers.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    If the response is more than 10 words, or requires actual detail, Palin is worse than The Won. Or at least as bad. She’s a bomb thrower, nothing more.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    with one hand.

  • ruexperienced

    But the focus would be on HER, not the issues.

    I don’t like Romney, but he had a good anti-Obama speech. Not too many people saw it because Sarah Palin drove her bus near to where Romney was giving the speech and the next week the candidates were drown out because of Palin’s take on Paul Revere.

    Palin has become the issue. If she gets in, the actual conservative issues get brushed aside.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And, if a candidate is going to be THE issue, that candidate needs to be Obama.

  • Scope

    Of course this article comes from “spurces close to Palin” which means it could be anyone, I don’t believe she will announce in Sept. or anytime.

    On another note, Ryan also decided against a run. That was just announced. Christie asked if he had to commit suicide to prove he wasn’t running. So far Rove is looking like lose, lose, lose.

  • azaeroprof

    Do you have inside info into the Palin camp to know her decision-making process that the rest of us don’t have? I strongly suspect she’s talking to a lot of people (perhaps even Rick Perry?).

    And frankly, given the caliber of the political consultant class (certainly the ones I’ve met), I’d rather see a candidate make decisions based on their own instincts. The consultant class is one step below used car salesmen in my book.

  • Scope

    n/t

  • acat

    and instead throwing it on the rails under Perry’s wheels….

    Mew

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    That’s his legacy? To let him keep damaging the brand of a party he was never even good enough to damage from the White House? At least the Bushies ran the White House before they damaged (and continue to damage) the brand.

    I rather believe a POTUS who has committed to a campaign of nothing but smearing his opponent should then run against someone whose warts are yesterday’s news.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    That’s his legacy? To let him keep damaging the brand of a party he was never even good enough to damage from the White House? At least the Bushies ran the White House before they damaged (and continue to damage) the brand.

    I rather believe a POTUS who has committed to a campaign of nothing but smearing his opponent should then run against someone whose warts are yesterday’s news.

  • earlgrey

    conventional wisdom was that he couldn’t win.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    This is 2011 and McCain’s “handlers” are long gone. Palin has had center stage since she ran away from Alaska so she could build her brand. She’s got 95% name recognition and has been able to command an audience where ever and when ever she wants one. If she wanted msm time, she could get it in a heart beat.

    Bottom line, she’s wasted her fifteen minutes of fame as far as politics is concerned, although she certainly made a ton money doing it. If you’re looking for someone to blame for Palin’s current predicament, look no farther than Palin.

  • azaeroprof

    But poll numbers can change significantly during campaigns. Remember that as late as late-Feb 1980, Carter led Reagan 58-33. In fact, Reagan never cracked 40% until August 1980.

    Now, I’m not arguing that Palin will turn things around a la The Gipper. Just saying that we eliminate candidates based on bad polling 16 months before an election at our peril.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    1) Sarah somehow gains the nomination and then is crushed by Obama, quite possibly with the Democrats keeping the Senate and the House control a toss-up

    2) (Most likely) Sarah’s fragments the conservatives and Romney wins the nomination, losing to Obama as the base stays home in significant numbers. Shrinkage in House majority, Senate control a toss-up

    3) Romney somehow ekes out a win, same effect on Congress as 2) – and then proceeds to destroy the Republican brand, leading to a triumphant Democrat return in 2016 plus Congressional control (if not in 2014)

    In any case, Sarah will turn the Republican primary race into a media circus that will make it hard for any of the candidates to get out a coherent message/image to the public. And distract the public from Obama’s performance.

  • azaeroprof

    With “Be respectful, or be banned.” written right below the comment box, you post an insinuation that aeaeren is masturbating while typing their comment?

    There are plenty of good ‘con’ arguments to make against Palin than to resort to that.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    people liked Reagan personally. They don’t like Palin.

  • acat

    even though he couldn’t win, his “roadmap” would instantly be something every GOPer has to answer questions about.

    Even if Ryan couldn’t win, that alone would be worthwhile.

    Hoping a Perry (or, to be gracious, a Romney) whitehouse would put Ryan at OMB.

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Or eating a sandwich. Or drinking a beer. Or using two computers and posting a comment on C4P about how he’s giving the PalinH8trs at Redstate what for with the other hand.

    There’s any number of things he could be doing. Your suggestion is just one.

    And frankly, az, that “comment” doesn’t deserve a well thought out take down. It’s its own take down.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    In your paragraph 2.

  • westcoastpatriette

    except I am not absolutely convinced she could not win. If the election did not carry such dire consequences, I would love to see her run just to watch her kick some butts Palin-style.

    However, I do agree with your assessment that chauvinism is alive and well and any woman who considers running for the Presidency must accept that as part of the deal. Politics are vicious and no holds are barred for anyone–male or female.

    Someone pointed out here at RS recently that there is still elements within the Christian wing that do not think a woman should hold a position of power/authority–something I had not considered.

    Anyway–at least this is not a boring race and we have several candidates I can vote for without holding my nose.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Get over it.

  • izoneguy

    Much of the vitriol towards Rick Perry comes from prominent conservative women –

    Michelle Malkin

    ,

    Ann Coulter


    and Jedediah Bila just to name a few. They are Sarah Palin supporters,
    or in Coulters case – anyone but Rick Perry, and are just livid that a “cowboy” like Rick Perry can waltz in from Texas and “steal” what is rightfully Sarah Palin’s ascendency to overthrow Obama. Well if Obama were a Jimmy Carter or even a Bill Clinton they might have a case. With Obama you are dealing with a socialist who is controlling the most powerful country in the world. And that power feels good to the socialists. They will not go lightly into the night. Only someone like Rick Perry with a hardened edge can bump off Obama. To think otherwise is the same thing as dreaming for a red unicorn.

    Sarah’s best shot is 2020 – It will take at least 8 years, if not longer, for the liberal American public to de-toxify from the socialist stranglehold that Obama has woven into American society.

  • azaeroprof

    As long as we’re just inventing scenarios out of thin air, how ’bout:

    4) Palin surprises everyone by running a solid, ideas-based campaign and rides Tea Party and other Conservative support to the nomination. The double-dip recession dooms Obama, who is swamped by Palin once voters a) hear from her directly, and b) realize that Sarah Palin and Tina Fey are in fact two different people. The 10-point win on election day increases the House majority and gives the GOP a filibuster-proof Senate.

    Frankly, #4 sounds best to me. ;)

    Seriously, though, Palin in the debates would probably double (or more) the viewership. It may still be hard for a candidate to get their message out past the “Palin Circus”, but do you really want a nominee whose message can be so easily drowned out?

  • azaeroprof

    But one simple correction: Ann Coulter is firmly in the Chris Christie section. She doesn’t appear to be in any way a Palin devotee.

  • azaeroprof

    Supposed to be a reply to civil_truth above!

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    the fact that Palin outed McCain as a poser when it came to conservative street cred, and his campaign was crashing and burning too fast to draft another reach-across-the-aisle guy, which is what they really wanted. Don’t have us believe they were fools when they floated names like Joe Liebermann but they grew into geniuses as they stabbed Sarah Palin in the back.

  • azaeroprof

    For some reason, I don’t buy your alternate suggestions for the 2nd hand use. I’m pretty sure I pegged your intent on that one.

    And if the comment is it’s own take down, why not just let it take itself down. You bring yourself down with that response. And you’re better than that.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    utter hogwash.

  • Scope

    My point about Rove has been that he “predicted” that Palin would get in in Iowa, based on her schedule there, which means that his guess was as good as anyone else’s. He wanted that message out there in order to keep Palin’s fans in her camp, and not to jump over to Perry, if that is where they would go. I also thought it odd that all of a sudden Rove was not denigrating Palin, which if I am not mistaken, wasn’t exactly his favorite candidate earlier on. His announcement was simply to keep her supporters, who I’m am sure must be starting to feel pretty frustrated with no decision, from jumping to Perry, at least until he could recruit another credible candidate to run against Perry.

    I heard on local radio this afternoon simply that Paul Ryan had announced that he would not seek the presidency. Ryan had already said no previously, but, was recently being “pressured” to rethink his decision. I know many house members backed him, but somehow I doubt it was any of the house members who were “pressuring” him to rethink the position. I’d make a bet he got a call from Rove after Perry announced, if not before.

    Chris Christie has said no as many times as I can remember. Now the news is he is considering it again. Yet his staff members have said it wasn’t true.

    Both Ryan and Christie are seen as rock stars by some in the Republican party. Who better to try to recruit to run against Perry, and to try to keep the field fluid and undecided on a particular candidate, when your goal is to keep voters away from one particular candidate that you cannot allow to win. The only other person that is that popular would be Jim DeMint, and he already went through the decision process, and said he will not run for the presidency. In fact DeMint said he is done after his term is up (Boo HOO). Can you think of any other person that could challenge Perry in any meaningful way?

    So the Rovester is out there making all these predictions, on national TV, and it struck me that he must be pretty desperate to go so far out on a limb with a guess, with Palin announcing in Sept
    when he really had no clue. And I’ve actually read articles saying that if anyone knows it is Karl Rove. He is a pro at these predictions. Uh Huh, right.

    I’m glad EE posted his article on the consultants not working in a Perry Washington. I’ve seen that repeated everywhere I go. The beauty of the internet I guess.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    by Washingtonians who are simply content to manage decline, no matter if those Washingtonians work for McCain or Boehner or McConnell or Huntsman or Obama.

    Can’t pretend it’s not the same old same old establisment plasma.

  • izoneguy

    Not Yet – her conservative women buddies will turn her into a Palin cheerleader if she does run.

    The one I forgot was Pamela Geller…..

    Perry’s Problematic Pals

    You would think that Geller who hates Obama’s guts would have enough brains to realize that Rick Perry is the best shot of bumping off Obama.
    I don’t think the Palin supporters cannot take the blinders off.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    The last to know what Palin is thinking will be Rove and the other ‘handler’ experts.

    IMHO She aint running and that’s the smart thing for her to do, rather than split support of other Tea Party candidates (Bachmann, Perry).

  • Tbone

    Where Palin is concerned, he’s kinda like Joe Biden or an old dog with the farts. You hope the situation improves but you know it never really will.

  • acat

    and have the vapors must be careful not to light matches.

    Mew

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    …are based entirely on certain alleged actions he’s taken regarding radical Islam, including his close ties to Norquist.

  • rightwingmom52

    cheering for Christie. She gave her opinion as to what will happen and that she loves Christie, but I don’t see “Perry won’t live up to expectations” as vitriol. Usually, if Coulter thinks you’re an idiot or RINO or worse, she’s pretty plain spoken about it.

    I’m haven’t seen any articles from Coulter on the candidates one way or the other, but I could be missing something.

  • izoneguy

    She worships Palin.

    I know Pamela and have met her. I know several of her best friends.
    I e-mailed one and asked her what she thought of Rick Perry.
    She said she might support him if he is the nominee.
    “Might”….does that mean she won’t vote and would stay home?

    Just Google – Pamela Geller Sarah Palin

    Sarah part starts at 1:32

  • pineros

    I saw this in the latest Rasmussen poll… and because it is such a stinky poll (stench wafting all over), as a Sarah Palin supporter, it makes me feel good – because it is so obviously out to lunch.

    “In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided.”

    Explain that bizarro bit of news. That 20% of self-identified conservatives? yes, that?s right ? conservatives, would rather vote for Obama than Palin. And, another 19% of these self-identified conservatives can?t make up their minds which is worse? Obama or Palin. Do you really believe this crap?

    Can anyone actually sit there and tell me that 20% of Conservatives in a Presidential election between Obama and Palin would vote for Obama?

    Are they sampling crack addicts? Just who are these people they are sampling? Am I missing something? This poll finding makes sense to you?

    I call bull crap. Pure and simple bull crap? and if you don?t too, then there is something wrong with you, not me.

    So, when it comes to these Rasmussen polls, keep this in mind – if one part of the poll doesn?t make any rational sense, then how can you pick and chose which parts of the poll to believe? The entire poll would be based on the same people.

    What’s the point of having polls that are not based in reality?

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Perry is no closer to Norquist than half the GOP establishment. Yes, Norquist has troubling ties, but that doesn’t make anyone who meets with him a terrorist supporter.

    The charge that Perry “Texas curricula changed to “reflect a sharia compliant version of Islam”.” is profoundly misleading and wrong. the SBOE is responsible for overseeing the TEKS curriculum guidelines. Liberals have been bashing conservatives on the elected SBOE over their alleged failures to get him and inclusive. Texas flipped out when the TEA tried to get Christmas removed from social studies (replaced by Diwali as an ‘important religious holiday’), Christmas stayed. Those are all at SBOE, not Governor. This above claim is hokum.

    And yes, a Governor of a large state will meet with muslim leaders. Yet no balance is given nor mention made of Perry’s support of Israel.

    Weak indeed.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    …but I can’t imaging that she would prostitute her unflagging opposition to radical Islam to promote a specific candidate. That would destroy her credibility as a blogger.

  • izoneguy

    We have posted several Perry diaries de-bunking several claims about Perry.
    The bashers refuse to read them and or refuse to understand them.

    In less than a week Perry has shaken up the race to the point that the left & the right are piling on….

    In pilot talk – Incoming flak – we are over the target.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    I was not claiming the charges I listed to be my position, just outlining what I understand to be Geller’s criticisms against Perry. I personally do not view the items in your second paragraph as serious blots on Perry’s record at this point in time.

    However, I am convinced that Norquist is at minimum an apologist for radical Islam and at worse a Trojan Horse. The fact that so much of the Republican establishment (in your words) consort with him only serves to reflect ill on those persons rather than act as exoneration.

    That is, there is no herd immunity for Perry or any others with regards to their ties with Norquist.

  • Scope

    she did a follow up article. Bet you didn’t hear about that did you, either did I until I found it today. Check her site Atlas Shrugs and it is there. I’m not linking anything of hers.

    In the follow up she says that she had gotten alot of flak for her initial post. She says- and I am paraphraising here- Yes all Perry did was give a speech in partnership with Grover Norquist, and promote it on his website. Norquist heads up Amer. For Tax Reform, and Perry’s tax cutting message is redolent of Norquist’s influence. I certainly would refuse to speak at the same event in partnership with Norquist. She asks- does Perry even knoe about Norquist ties, and, does he even care? Sounds like a big walk back to me, however, she made sure to circulate her first post, yet only posted her backtrack on her own personal website. The rest of the article, beyond the first paragraph kinda retraction, goes on and on about the radical islamists, and Norquists ties to them, but Perry is forgotten in her tirade against the radicals.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    …as to how close Perry’s ties are to Norquist.

    Also, if Geller challenged Perry to prove the negative via speculation in the form of leading questions* rather than presenting affirmative evidence, that is an unworthy journalistic practice.

    ————————-
    *”She asks- does Perry even know about Norquist ties, and, does he even care?

  • runner12

    an effective strategy to undo the damage and unfortunately I do not think Gov. Palin has found it. I am not sure where the truth lies in her resignation from Governor, but had she stayed it may have boded well for her in 2012.

    But she did not, so I think the best thing she can do is run for Senate and force people to take her seriously as an issues person, rather than just a personality. Which by the way I think she already is, but she has to convince many more people of that fact.

  • runner12

    I certainly have not met any Christians ( myself being one ) who would have a problem with a female President. I would certainly have to question their reasoning on that one.

    I think a woman will eventually become at the very least VP, and I saw one on the videos from the RS gathering that I think could do it. It was Gov. Nikki Haley.

  • Scope

    is with his pledge that he all but forces ever Republican running for office to sign. He has gotten all the newbies on board, and certainly all of the so-called Tea Party newbies. If you don’t sign his tax pledge, you are made out to be someone willing to increase taxes, which for most or all conservatives is a big no no. It almost feels to me like a form of extortion. If you don’t sign this, we will make sure you are marginalized at least. I just read a story about someone running for a VA state seat that refused to sign the pledge. The elections are tomorrow, and, it is now circulating that one of the R candidates refused to sign Norquists pledge, so therefore, you must vote for the alternative Republican.

    Obviously Norquist has the same kind of “influence” that Rove still seems to have, unfortunately. Sad that Norquist is using his tax policies to mask his greater goals. But, that doesn’t mean that he has the influence on Perry that Geller claims he has. Perry and Norquist have a common ground on low taxes, that’s it.

    Why would Perry have ties to terrorists as Geller claims, but, be such a supporter of Israel from way back?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re doing it wrong.

    Troll better.

    You’re trying to make Sarah Palin look bad by playing the part of a mentally deranged supporter, but we all know you’re just a leftist who hates her guts.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    …but don’t see her skill set as compatible with an elected position.

    The biggest problem with your scenario is the assumption there is a sufficient number of swing voters who actually will given Sarah a new listen.

    However, my experience has been that too many otherwise reasonable people just will not even entertain the hypothesis that Sarah is a credible candidate or even someone who deserves a hearing, much less be persuadable to change their views. She’s like their archetype of idiocy, unworthy of being taken seriously. I’ve never in my life seen such widespread disdain for a political figure.

    We’re not dealing with rationality here, but with gut level conditioned reflex that will be continually reinforced by a hostile media.

    But again, I’ve also rarely seen someone with as much charisma as Sarah for connecting with a receptive audience. But the number of receptive people is irreversibly too limited for her to win an election – but very useful for mobilizing people to vote for another.

    That’s where Sarah’s calling is – as a mobilizer – and I’ve been saying that since the 2008 election. But she will lose effectiveness if she sets herself up instead as a pi?ata.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    And, as you document, Norquist has moved from activist to bully, to the detriment of the conservative movement.

  • runner12

    I think you articulated how I feel about Governor Palin better than I ever have myself.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    His pledge is just too vague. We are adults.

    Want to raise taxes? That could mean many things. Can’t we say “rates” vs “revenue” and can’t we be for eliminating loopholes and other policies without the supposed “revenue neutral” canard, as if anyone ever has been within a standard deviation in predictions for revenues.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    That eliminated any possible credibility he may have ever had to me.

    Someone who followed the money I’m sure would find damning evidence.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Why retreat and send them the message that what they do works?

    To be clear, I’m not afraid of Sarah Palin getting in. I hope she does. Nothing personal, but I don’t subscribe to the notion that she has to be politically rehabilitated. Do they pull punches on Scott Walker? Paul Ryan? Rand Paul? Marco Rubio? Is there anything not credentialed about their command of the issues which spares them commensuraet attacks from the left? Of course, she’s a national candiate, so the punches will be harder.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    candidate stands up and takes on the attackers directly. Which Palin has never done, instead she posts on her Facebook sounding board and whines about being picked on by the media.

    She showed her true colors when she resigned her Governorship. She’s a political coward.

    I too hope she runs. She’ll get her [***] handed to her.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    until McCain’s handlers called their dogs on her.

    She came to the lower 48 to play wth the big boys, rather than bleed herself and her state dry at the lands of Obama’s goons filing lawsuits.

    Why so afraid she’ll get in?

  • ruexperienced

    .. snubbed her boss at Fox (Roger Ailes) and even HER OWN personal lawyer after the Tuscon shooting.

    Palin, asked them if she should respond with the Blood Libel remarks and both said she should not. Even her own lawyer told her not to do the Blood Libel thing. She was supposed to be giving condolences. The victims were not even in the ground yet.

    Her speech started off sounding presidential. About half way through, she started on the Blood Libel “I am a victim” thing and the next week she had dropped 10 points.

    I have read several times that her closest adviser, besides herself, is her husband.

    If the political and professional associates closest to her were advising her to not claim victim status, where did she get the idea?

  • runner12

    above have defined themselves as ” issues” candidates. In other words, they are people of substance and they have a record to prove it. People do not buy what the Leftist media has attacked them with.

    This is not to say that Gov. Palin lacks substance, more that she is perceived that way. This is why I suggest she run for Senate, re-establish herself as an issues candidate rather than a perceived cult of personality candidate.

    I wish that this was not the reality for Palin, but it is. I live in a very red state and she is polarizing even here.

  • ruexperienced

    …. we don’t need to field our best candidate. We can put in our weakest one and just hope that in November the situation is so bad that America will accept anybody.

    (I am not that much of a risk taker)

  • Scope

    from the website 2012.republican-candidates.org

    Palins position on immigration-

    ? According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.

    ? Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.

    ? She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.

    ? Illegal immigrants in Alaska are at loggerheads over obtaining driver’s licenses before Palin was elected Governor. The state Senate then approved a Bill banning licenses to illegals tightening the requirements for obtaining a license only if they prove their legal identity. This has affected the illegal immigrants in Alaska severely.

    ? Sarah Palin has stated that she is sick to death about the immigration nonsense and has not expressed her views often on illegal immigration. She feels that the new administration needs of Alaska should be energetically started early to enable a co-operative relationship with Canada.

    Does anyone have a clue of where she stands on immigration? I don’t. I’m quite sick of Palin’s non-position positions. If anyone here can tell where she stands based on her comments, please educate all of us. Clever is not always the most endearing trait.

  • tom_ohio

    Should be the post title at least, good concern troll post though.
    Polls this far out are mostly push polls, or they are polls paid for by certain camps to release some data to discourage other camps
    The Tea Party patriot candidates are Cain, Bachmann, and soon Palin.
    I believe Palin can ( if she so wishes ) destroy the Republican Party by establishing a real Tea Party this election cycle, but she won’t because the stakes are too high on this one and the mistake in the White House must be removed.
    Just TODAY , Palin’s PAC released a new video embracing the Tea Party.
    Whatever she does, even if she gets in late and even if she loses the primary, she will be in demand, for speeches for books. etc.
    About the only thing that will diminish her standing is NOT running, so I see her running.
    Announcing on Constitution Day, not on Sept 3.
    That date I I have to agree with Levin ) is an attempt to paint Palin in a bad light, but she will not be pushed in her time frame, especially not by the likes of Rove and Morris.
    The Sept 3 announcement will be about TEA,
    TEA Forever.
    And for what’s its worth I am proud of the Tea Party too.

  • Scope

    I fully understand that I am linking a lefty website, but, it is for the Palin quotes herself in Fla. that I bring it.

    In a speech in Fla, Palin promised the seniors that McCain would “protect the entitlement programs”Which contrasts sharply with her claim that she would look for “efficiences” to cut in the entitlement programs.

    More recently, Palin has come out in support of Ryan’s Roadmap which includes entitlement reform. Was she pandering to the Fla. audience?

    One of my problems with Palin all along is that she seems to be a willing cohort, and not always for the best of reasons.

  • aeaeren

    Oh I thought this was Red State…I expect rude, mindless attacks from the foaming at the mouth Communist from Europe. Just because you disagree with my thoughts doesn’t make you right whatsoever. We shall see at the end who was correct, till then either contribute or go away.Feel free to correct my spelling and grammer next instead of actually debating.

  • aeaeren

    I am for Palin and stated it first thing, I am not a member of the C4P and frankly I could careless who wins as long as it isn’t OBAMA. I just gave my opionion and you jerks attack me because I guess I am just soooooo stupid I can’t think without her pulling my puppet strings uh? I sure hope you don’t think you are any better then those Daily KOS/Guardian boys outside of the language.

  • proud_conservative

    A wet paper bag could beat Nobama right now. Pineros makes a very valid point. Do you seriously think any self identified conservative picks Nobama over Palin? All the money in the world is not going to save Nobama from his record. In truth it does not really matter what republican is running if they are able to effectively communicate a common sense conservative agenda with solutions to the problems we face and also paint Nobama with his dismal track record on the economy.

    The media is trying to convince us that he is unbeatable. Nothing could be further from the truth

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Sadly, some are eating it up.

    Who trusts the same media who lets Huntsman blather on about how extreme the other GOP candidates are to give any real conservative a fair shake?

  • aeaeren

    You think they will just vote for Obama or stay home with all the bad stuff happening to them if Palin wins the nonmination? When one person is robbing you I seriously doubt you would just sit it out and not vote for the person who is against the robber.

    I honestly don’t think it is going to matter who wins the Republican ticket as long as they are not Obama err and maybe Huntsman but it’s a close call there, they will beat Obama.

    Just what has Obama done for anyone outside of unions? EVEN the Drones are starting to wonder why they should vote for him again?

  • student14

    of Palin actually deciding she is going to run and then changing her mind? Hm?

    She has never hinted at giving an announcement/making a decision until months after the beginning of the year. You know who has been though? the pundits, bloggers and the MSM. Not her. She has been consistent in answering “haven’t made my decision yet, it’s still too early…there’s a lot to consider”

    It’s not her fault that you, nor Eric, can’t seem to simply understand what that means. And not her fault that you can’t differentiate between Palin making the announcement and others setting deadlines for her.

    Palin is too good for politics. This is getting ridiculous.

  • Scope

    came out and said that to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire would not be a tax increase.

  • Tbone

    you want to reply to Becker.

  • Tbone

    but I will defer to your obvious experience. ;-)

  • Adjoran

    Some of her fans seem to have a devotional fervor that borders on Paulbot nutty. She would be a formidable candidate in the primaries, but she has waited too long.

    Except for a few Tim Pawlenty staffers now on the market, all the top staff – organizers, fundraisers, volunteer coordinators, schedulers, and consultants – have already signed on to other campaigns. So have most of the volunteer activists. In order to do that in good conscience, they had to give up any hope of Palin getting in. It’s too late to win the nomination now.

    I know some of the fanatics remember her statement about any campaign she did run would be a “different kind of campaign” and suppose that means she can work miracles with Facebook and Twitter. No, she can’t.

    The dirty little secret of politics is that it is hard work, and lots of it, done by a lot of people in neighborhoods and churches and workplaces over a long period of time. The nuts and bolts of it have at least as much to do with the outcome as ideologies, ideals, policies, and personalties. You can’t just drop in and run and win.

    It’s too bad she has kept so many faithful supporters in the dark and on the edge. But she is to this cycle what Mario Cuomo was to Democrats in 1984, ’88, and ’92 – the one popular figure many wished would run, who kept everyone wondering if he would run, and ultimately did not run.

  • californiagold

    Sarah Palin is a great TV analyst and promoter of the republican cause, and that’s the role she should continue. I don’t see any path for her to get to the White House in 2012. The reality is, Palin is every bit as polarizing a figure as is Hillary Clinton, maybe even more so.

    Imagine this – suppose by some miracle Palin did defeat Obama in 2012. Then what ? How long would it take for the democrats to mobilize,filibuster, or even regain congress ? Gridlock would be the end result of a Palin presidency.

    What the country needs is a leader who can unite the country, while taking on the important issues that need reforming – and then actually making those reforms reality.

  • rightwingmom52

    that affected my life and the lives of my family, I’d talk it over with my husband, too. In fact, my husband is my closest adviser for every major decision I make, and a few minor ones as well, and vice versa. That’s a plus in my book.

  • conservative_dan

    in his last race for Gov. of TX. I just have that picture in my mind for some reason. I think she’s going to come out in support of Perry and NOT run.

  • radicalrighty

    I think you are right that they discussed his entry, and he wouldn’t have bothered getting in if she had plans to do so.

  • snappy101

    Sarah Palin has more executive experience than Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Barack Obama (when he ran for POTUS) combined. But who would give her the big money? Where’s her ground organization in some of the early states? Where are the Independents to support her? The beltway boys in the media are pushing the people (Ryan, thankfully he had the good sense to back off) they rub elbows with because that’s how they derive their own power in DC. But with Palin, I don’t see it. If they are squawking about her in their little DC/NY media analyst/consultant/editor jobs then it’s to derail somebody else, not promote her. As Californiagold says, Sarah Palin is a good promoter of the Republican cause but the “beltway boys” get no rub-off cachet if she becomes President and she gets no Independent votes (according to polls) to carry her to the finish line should she run. She’s not electable and she should have finished her term as governor.

  • gunslingr45

    sure the MSM and old guard GOP would love for her to jump in and pull votes so Mitt ends up with the nomination. If that happens, Obumber wins and they know it.
    To many (me included) will never cast a vote for him. I went along with McCain/Palin and swore I would never do it again.

    To the old guard RINOs you are not much better than Obumber and can go take a leap with him.

  • gunslingr45

    you need to add Mitt to that short list.

  • BigRedConservative

    As gunslingr said below, Mitt is as bad. I’d rather vote for Huntsman over Romney anyway-he has a decent record cutting taxes and reforming health, unlike Romney.

  • arthurmanger17

    The only people that think that Romney has a chance to get the Republican nomination are those of the drive by media. First; he his campaigning with a gut shot, (Romneycare) another Massachusetts miracle. Second; he has made statements like these, “I don’t speak for the scientific community, of course, but I believe the world’s getting warmer. I can’t prove that, but I believe based on what I read that the world is getting warmer.? “And number two, I believe that humans contribute to that. I don’t know how much our contribution is to that, because I know that there have been periods of greater heat and warmth in the past, but I believe we contribute to that.” And last but not least, “it’s important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may be significant contributors.”. All this he said while campaigning for the Republican nomination. Which got him a ?ada boy? from Al Gore. How many environmental wackos do you think vote in the Republican primaries besides Al Gore? Now he campaigning with a serious head wound. I?d say fatal would not be to strong a term.
    To think that if Palin gets in the race helps Romney and makes Karl Rove giddy is simply silly. If reports are true and they are numerous that Palin?s crass roots support is large and fierce as seen during her bus tour, then we can conclude that her campaign would also get it?s energy from the crass roots of America. This phenomenon if successful would not, could not, be a pleasant outcome for a political insider like Rove or any other of his profession. The post Fracturing the media by mdyou makes a good point.

  • oldpedler

    Drive me nuts. Maybe we should look at the new conservatives results in the last elections. I believe the Roves of the Old Guard are nothing more than RINOs. I am a Mormon, but don’t buy the Romney politics and opinions as described by arthurmanger17. I think Rove is looking not so much as whether the nominee will be good for America as who would be good for Rove. I will support ANY candidate who runs as a conservative, with a conservative platform, but am tired of holding my nose and voting for the least worst, and that is Rove’s way. Talk about Hope and Change. I Hope we can get a candidate who will Change the failed policies of Obumer. Without Christie, I believe that is Perry.

  • JSobieski

    There are a couple of different ways someone could respond to that characterization:

    (1) I could point out that Christie is a liberal on issues such as 2nd Amendment rights, thinks those concerned about Sharia law aren’t thinking straight (he seems to deny that it is a good faith concern), and is likely pro-choice. We could then discuss his specific statements and policies, etc.

    OR

    (2) I could simply characterize Christie as a RINO, establishment hack, elitist, a puppet of the “Old Guard” etc.

    Which approach do you think is most productive?

  • brojohn2

    NO! She has a great place to be right now, if she runs she will shake up the political landscape for sure and probably Romney will be the winner in that event. Better she stay a commentator on Fox and a personality across the country. When she speaks she upsets the democrats, they get apoplexy and make fools of themselves. My hope is that she will endorse Perry on 3 September, but who knows.
    Sarah Palin is the best weapon we have against the liberals, they hate her with a passion that borders on total insanity, they hate Perry too but their preferred target is Sarah. Please Sarah, stay on the sidelines, pontificate on all the stupidity in the Obama administration. Endorse good conservative candidates, and please if you happen to think about it, stick it to our middle of road friends like Karl Rove and Huckabee.

    I love the lady and wish for her blessing upon blessing, but not that she run for President. Veep would be wonderful, she could stick it to “Foot in mouth” Joe Biden in the VP debates.

  • rightwingmom52

    he is very much pro life. Just goes to show how we should all do a little more research before we make assumptions.

    here

    His conversion rings true to me. Hard to argue when you hear that heartbeat at 3 months, plus it was 15 years ago for Christie.

  • JSobieski

    do appreciate the correction.

  • rightwingmom52

    It’s just that I had seen that issue pop up with Christie a couple of times lately. Have to admit I was pleasantly surprised and just wanted to share the research.

  • nelsdr

    I?m thankful for Gov Palin messing with the media?s ?mindlessness?. She is doing it her way and we most certainly do not want the left, the media or the establishment selecting our candidate. So, ?Go Sarah Go? just keep on messing with the media?s ?mindlessness? or the establishments ?do it our way or the highway? delusions. Although, my choice for a 2012 victory is Mr Cain! Mean while the LOL (Loud Obnoxious Left) keep singing the same song but they are seeing fewer and fewer people dancing to the noise they are making. ?We the People? have an unprecedented opportunity to elect not who the ?Elite? and the ?Political Opinion makers? tell us is the ?most electable? but the candidate who really does best represent ?We the People?! Herman Cain a man of Virtue, a Conservative, and a great Example of living out the American Experiment. He defuses the ‘Class Warfare Rhetoric’ is most certainly not a Politian and may well be the LOL crowd?s and the ?Elites? most feared GOP candidate! Herman Cain! Check Him Out! Maybe, it time for the ?Tea Party Potentials? to really go ?rogue? and all them get behind Mr Cain to significantly improve our chances of real change in Washington. He was early in the GOP primary and he is a ?real? conservative candidate. I believe Mr Cain could win and that means we win! I am very concerned about the left, the media or the establishment selecting the GOP candidate. It is time to change our ways of ?playing politics? get out of the ?game? and save our Republic!

  • patriciakelley

    Palin would be a fool to run. She has been pursuing her dream.. It is called making bucks. There is nothing wrong with this goal and objective. That is what capitalism is all about.

  • snowshooze

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008103325_alaskatax07.html

    The article addresses the windfall profits tax, and I believe we have the highest marginal tax rate for the producers in the world.
    We scalped them so bad that even our politicians are having trouble figuring out how to spend it…but they figure it out..
    I like Sarah, as an inspirational speaker. Far conservative values.
    But she is a tax and spend fiscal liberal.
    And there some other big problems…

    Additionally, here is a bit on our $500 Million dollar investment with Trans-Canada… AGIA… that we have absolutely nothing to show for..

    http://www.adn.com/2011/07/12/1966428/alaska-needs-to-get-out-from-under.html

    I have posted this because I feel it is very important.
    If you are seriously considering Sarah as your preferred candidate, you should take a peek at these.

    I visited Sarah’s C4P site, and my eyes glazed over…

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    the holy shrine of the blessed Saint Sarah? her name be praised.

  • soljerblue

    if Karl Rove wants Palin in the race, for whatever reason, it has to do with denying the nomination to Rick Perry and securing it for Romney. Rove is a manipulator, par excellence, hates the Tea Party and real conservatives, and has to figure Palin and Perry would knock each other off. Much as I like Sarah Palin, I think the train has left the station on her candidacy. If Rove is in the mix anywhere, conservatives should run like h**l.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    They are good friends and have similar views, I think this is a big reason for his late entry into the race. I will be surprised as heck if she ends up running now.