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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Horserace for August 25, 2011

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  August 25th, 2011 at 01:59 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012
NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012
NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012
SC Primary: Feb. 28, 2012

Polls suggest it is “put up or shut up” time for Sarah Palin on whether she’ll run for President or, if not, assume the role of Kingmaker — and her endorsement will have power.

Rick Perry has vaulted into the lead nationally, but I still have qualms with really calling him the front runner.

Michele Bachmann is fading.

Jon Huntsman is beclowning himself.

And then there are the hangers on. We’ll get into it all in this week’s horserace.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann has held an impressive wave of momentum together to make a competitive race with Mitt Romney in Iowa and nationwide. But her star is starting to fade as she becomes overshadowed by Rick Perry.

Don’t count Bachmann out. There are several debates coming up in succession in Florida and she will have time to rebound. She’s been hurt of late with a media narrative that she is a diva, but she can make quick work of dispelling that narrative just by getting out and working the crowds.

If Bachmann cannot regain her footing and keep up fundraising, she’ll probably be able to hang on to Iowa, but no further. It’s still early though.

Jon Huntsman

The only rationale I have for Jon Huntsman’s campaign is that he is building the case for a third party run. He is slamming the other Republicans. He is smearing Iowans. He’s burning every bridge within the GOP. The only other place to go is to endorse Obama or claim to be a third party “middle way” candidate.

I think the Huntsman camp is not behaving irrationally. They are behaving rationally from the perspective of making Huntsman the victim of the evil, nasty right-wingers. The media will gladly let him play victim.

Sarah Palin

I will believe it when I see it.

At the same time, more and more polling shows Palin will have little impact if she gets in the race. I think people are tired of the tease and they want Palin to make up her mind. If she gets in, she will definitely move up, but I no longer think she will move up as much as she might have had she gotten in earlier.

People are ready to settle on a candidate and I suspect for many there is a subtle resentment brewing that Sarah Palin is stringing them along.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee.

Rick Perry

Perry is, according to the polls, the front runner.

It is too soon to tell if he is the actual front runner or just benefiting from a polling bounce due to his entry. Here’s the other issue with Rick Perry. He has not yet performed in debates. He is going to have to hold his own in the debates and, if the other candidates presume him to be the front runner, they may very well challenge him.

And if Perry really is the front runner — there are six months to go till kick off. The big question is whether he can maintain that lead. Historically, the answer is yes he can. But that all depends on if his polling is a bounce or real.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney may soon suffer a new problem. Remember how Pawlenty and Bachmann went at each other fighting for second place? Mitt Romney has largely escaped the fray because you’ve got to secure your spot for second place before taking on the front runner.

So if Bachmann was in second and now is in third with Romney in second, Bachmann will probably go for Romney, not for Perry. As will others on their way to second place. Mitt Romney’s days of getting a pass in the debates may soon come to an end. That said, Romney will need to find ways to go after Perry.

My guess? Perry is, for all intents and purposes, a career politician after leaving the Air Force and family farm. Romney will probably use his years in the private sector and keep saying nice things about Herman Cain as a way to push some insurgent grassroots supporters back from both Bachmann and Perry.

If the candidates go for Romney and Romney for Perry, we will have a good indicator that Perry really is in first place.

Listing of Presidential candidates
I consider “former” candidates
(in order of being dropped)

Gary Johnson
Rick Santorum
Thad McCotter
Newt Gingrich
Tim Pawlenty
Herman Cain

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COMMENTS

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  • BigRedConservative

    She has no rationale to run. Her core constituency-conservatives-have been eroded by Perry and Bachmann. She’s making plenty of money in her current capacity. All she’s doing now is skewing poll results. Once she-inevitably-declares herself out and endorses Perry or Bachmann, it simplifies matters considerably.

  • silentcal2012

    Santorum is still in this and despite the assumption by evangelicals that they own the social conservative movment, they dont.

    Santorum can be they black fly in Perry’s ointmnet by pulling outsider/teaparty/social conservatives in Catholic states like PA. NY. OH and , leaving bigger delegate seperation for Romney.

  • Darin_H

    The conventional talk prior to Perry getting in was “is Perry going to be a Fred?” Well, he’s dispelled that pretty good, Rick Perry is nothing is not a politician who enjoys the campaign – and it shows. Fred didn’t want to do the conventional, boots on the ground type of work, he said it himself that he wanted to do it differently, but it failed. Maybe one day that will come, but not 2008 and I think not in 2012 either.

    All of that leads me to Sarah Palin 2012. She has made no effort at building a campaign structure, and has said that if she runs she’ll do it differently. If she does jump in I suspect that she’ll do better than Fred, but still not win the nomination. The day will come that you won’t have to do those politician things to be elected, but that day isn’t today. My bet is that she doesn’t get in.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    The same people who are repulsed at the idea of her running won’t want her stumping for a contender or the nominee, and her endorsement won’t be seen as any less toxic than her candidacy. The candidates will squirm on the Sunday talk shows when pressed on whether they ascribe to her politics or actions.

    The path of least resistance will be to do unto Palin as has been done in much of the GOP blogosphere.

  • gregorysstewart

    That is a seriously scary thought. This Obama Diplomat and darling of the MSM could have his rump campaign paid for by Democrats, and grab enough votes to hand Obama an election with a minority of the voters behind him.

    I can only hope and pray this isn’t going to happen.

  • fortcollins

    Crazy Huntsman* belongs on the list of former candidates. Unless, of course, he is giving speeches to gain just enough popularity to snag the VP slot on Lyndon LaRouche’s ticket.

    *Hey, he Tweeted the request to call him “crazy.” I’m just honoring his request.

  • onemovoter

    so I’m curious, who wants to make a bet of either Ron Paul or Ron Huntsman going 3rd party?

    How about Trump and his rumblings? I’m just curious what people think of the 3rd party thing and the affect it would have.

    Personally I think even if there is a 3rd party person, they won’t have much affect, and if they do, they will actually pull from Obama rather than the Republican candidate.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    We have to shapeshift the GOP to his vision of it or else he’ll run off with his (nonexistent) base?

  • DerKrieger

    IMO suspects she won’t be the nominee and ultimately will throw her weight behind Perry so will start working now to help take down Romney.

    Sarah won’t run and she too will endorse Perry because she loathes the establishment and RINO squishes.

    Huntsman will find a padded room at the DNC.

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    If she gets in she will place third, fourth of fifth until she tires and drops out.

    If she stays out, she is hardly a kingmaker. I’m not sure who, if anyone, would pay attention to her endorsement. Iowans certainly want to see the candidate personally and the only endorsement that matters in New Hampshire is the Union Leader.

    Sadly, Sarah has out lived her time on the front-page. She should have announced before the first debate in South Carolina. Too little, too late.

  • Scope

    I think, more so than from the Republicans. He worked for Obama, and has supported many of his ideas including Gorebal Warming. He’s been accused by many republicans as sounding more democrat than republican. I could see the disappointed Obama voters going for him, since the only D choice is Obama.

  • Scope

    There is something like a 60% chance that before the end of the year, Scott Brown will announce a run. Egads.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul doesn’t let his supporters talk him into a third party run, they are trying. It’s his last ride at the rodeo, and by dang it he better be the pres. before he falls over.

  • izoneguy

    I guess Huntsman’s daddy might bankroll him. But then again Obama has probably made them lose hundred of millions of dollars. Huntsman Dad is probably going to vote for Rick Perry.

    And Rand Paul is also voting for Rick Perry.

  • jtlfromfredmd

    a front runner make. I heard Governor Perry on Laura Ingraham’s radio show this morning and, while I still like him and want him to get even better, his performance was a little off today. Perhaps it was Ms. Ingraham’s questions which he may not have been ready for. It can also be difficult to communicate effectively over the phone. Perhaps it was the approaching hurricane! I don’t know. He just didn’t light much of a fire today. I guess it’s early.

  • Scope

    is voting for Rick Perry? Why would he not vote for his daddy?

  • red_oakster

    nt

  • izoneguy

    I just wanted to see how many Paulbot heads I could explode

  • gawken

    Huntsman is one of 8 GOP candidates who will be at the NBC/MSNBC/Politico debate at the Reagan Library, shortly after Labor Day.

    ( This is the one that was cancelled several months ago, when no one had as yet announced.)

    Supposedly, to qualify, you had to achieve 4% in at leaste ONE poll…

    Anyone know a poll that gave Huntsman 4%, unless it was in the NBC cafeteria?

  • gawken

    Huntsman is one of 8 GOP candidates who will be at the NBC/MSNBC/Politico debate at the Reagan Library, shortly after Labor Day.

    ( This is the one that was cancelled several months ago, when no one had as yet announced.)

    Supposedly, to qualify, you had to achieve 4% in at leaste ONE poll…

    Anyone know a poll that gave Huntsman 4%, unless it was in the NBC cafeteria?

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    who told you what he thinks of Sarah Palin, and the rest of the campaignistas, who think the same thing but have not yet told you so.

    There will be no outreach to Sarah Palin from any other campaign.

    It will be a lot like Scott Brown, who winked at the Tea Party and took its money, didn’t suffer its icons.

  • Scope

    that this is coming from an obvious Romney supporter.

    Hey, did you hear, Romney has flipped, flopped and now flipped the flop with now saying that Global Warming might not be caused by humans. Just read that this morning. Maybe it’s the coming hurricane.

  • BigRedConservative

    As someone who occasionally ventures forth into the murky and often toxic waters of liberal blogs, I have encountered many disaffected lefties who find Huntsman a palatable alternative to Obama. Huntsman has a low showing in GOP primary polls, but in a general election (assuming all Republicans vote for him) he has the best chance of beating Obama. I would view him as a better candidate than Romney, myself.

  • azaeroprof

    You’re absolutely right, Scope. The last 2-person poll in Feb 1980 had Carter 58 over Reagan 33. In March, after John Anderson’s entry as an “Independent” candidate (remember he was a Republican), it was Carter 40, Reagan 34, Anderson 21. So he stole exclusively from Carter. It would be the same with Obama.

    Of course by the Nov election, it was Reagan 51, Carter 41, Anderson 7, so he didn’t make any real difference. My guess is that had he not been there, Reagan wins ~53-46.

  • BigRedConservative

    But he’d struggle in a campaign, and one wrong step-a gaffe, a misquoting, a bad VP choice-and he might lose it. There is a lot of MSM mistrust of successful Southern Republican governors.

  • azaeroprof

    at least on the national stage. He is a good politician, has decent (though not perfect, but who is?) conservative bonafides, and has the Texas jobs record to run on. He’s my choice pending Palin’s decision. But he hasn’t debated yet, and is not quite as eloquent an off-the-cuff speaker as I’d really like. Hopefully he’ll get better. Right now he’s on a bounce because the conservative competition wasn’t very strong and many of us are looking for anyone to derail Romney. (And there are some who were dying for a strong conservative to get in to head off Palin.)

    Bottom line is that it is still VERY early and a lot could change. Perry may indeed turn out to be a solid candidate and sweep to office. And we may still see late entries from Palin or another big name.

  • audax

    http://www.redstate.com/audax/2011/06/10/today-toomey-whom-santorum-deemed-an-inferior-candidate-is-a-us-senator-and-santorum-isnt/

  • gracie

    In Texas! Tea Party buddies, relatives and that famous contender for governor, Debra Medina, has come out for Paul. No surprise there.

    I am starting to worry that since his numbers are improving he might run as an Independent. Yikes, he has a lot of followers.

    I have told them they will just be putting o back in office but so far they are not listening! After that last debate performance I have to wonder at THEIR sanity.

  • Whacker77

    I’ve made my views on Palin pretty clear over the last month. I thought she was a great and necessary choice for McCain in 2008. I appreciate her conservatism and her personal story, but’s it’s been all downhill for me since her convention speech.

    Palin seems to believe non-stop combativeness for the sake of combativeness is the way to go. I like sharp elbows, but, at some point, she needed to offer more than speeches for money. She hasn’t offered much in the way of policy except on Facebook. Is that an oxymoron?

    Regardless, I think her chances to run were never there. She’s just too polarizing. Even worse, gearing up her bus tour just to bigfoot other candidates is so transparent. She looks more like a celebritician than a politician. Don’t forget, running for office makes you a politician.

    The best thing for her to do is to announce she’s not running and be quiet for a while. She can come back in the primary as a supporter of Perry and then rile up the base in the general.

  • jaydickb

    Many Republicans would just stay home, giving the victory to Obama. Right now, it looks like Perry would have the best chance against Obama, but that could change.

  • jaydickb

    If it’s Paul, it could take enough away from the Republican to give Obama the election. If it’s Huntsman, probably no one would notice and to the extent they did, he might take from Obama as much as from the Republican. Trump might also hurt the Republican, but he’s probably smart enough to realize that. Mainly, he likes to hear himself talk tough.

  • jaydickb

    I don’t think she would make a good candidate against Obama. If not for Romneycare, Romney would be good against Obama, but Romneycare would be a very difficult thing to overcome. Right now, Perry looks best to me.

  • pttx333

    We can only pray it comes to be, especially the padded room part.

  • izoneguy

    I really doubt Ron Paul could generate enough money for a 3rd party run.
    He would have to bolt the Republican party now.

    Donald Trump says he might think about a run. He has the money and a big mouth and that is about it. He does not have the discipline needed for
    a year long run.

    At this time their are no other viable 3rd party candidates – Except Sarah Palin. She may drop a bomb on Sept. 3rd and announce that she is going rogue and running 3rd party….

  • Scope

    He brought up an interview that Huntsman did on PBS last night. He said that we all need to participate in “shared sacrifices” and that the wealthy need to kick in their fair share. Huntsman will take more votes from Obama than he does from any GOP candidate.

  • swami7774

    A third-party candidate almost always divides the anti-incumbent vote. It just happened here in MA last year, where Deval Patrick was able to slide into a second term despite having a horrible record. The third-party guy took about 9 percent of the vote, which might have helped the GOP candidate win.

  • swami7774

    “Scott Brown to announce he will run for president” is at a negligible number right now.

  • kinghenry

    This loon now has “Name ID” to go with his cult following. He’s getting to double digit support because of the money he has to campaign, name ID, his cultist word of mouth campaign, never being challenged since he’s ignored…..with the biggest chunk of support being ignorant voters who in reality know very little about Paul other than he’s supposedly for “limited government” and the “constitution”.

    The rhetoric and ignorance has lured some in, getting treated like an actual contender and exposing Paul for all he is would quickly reverse those gains.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    As usual.

    As someone who sees Palin’s candidacy as absolutely toxic, I have no issues whatsoever with her stumping for Perry. She would be an asset to his campaign, primarily because they will make sure she is doing what she does best, throwing red meat to the base and raising money.

    Perry won’t be squirming about anything Palin says because she’ll be a minor player. The stage will be his and he’ll be answering for HIS statements and positions not hers.

  • gracie

    I don’t particularly believe he is a real Republican. He has a ton of Dem stances.

    Good point about Paul. I just have never seen so many Ronulans in my life. I wonder if they just love his fiscal and anti-war stances and have not watched the debates!

    Seriously, Palin 3rd party??

  • mikeymike143

    than he will no longer have money problems. and every presidential primary season it seems there is a candidate who starts out looking like he has no chance to win that either ends up either winning or being competitive.

  • mikeymike143

    place on national television. to me that more than makes up for any endorsement of specter.

  • mikeymike143

    having the best chance of beating obama? you do know he is polling at 2% in the republican primary.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Palin as a candidate is a polarizing figure who has many detractors (including but not just the PDS left) that will distract from the ‘real issues’ and hamper getting her message out. The media will be inspecting every word.

    Palin as a Kingmaker will be speaking to *her* following. She will be free to speak without the constraints of worrying about what the other 50% think.

    With her avid following, she will be an asset to any campaign.

  • gracie

    They can call him on his bs. Cannot wait to see if Perry will. Cause you are really right, double digits are going to go straight to his head!

    Rand Paul has said he will campaign for dad. How I dread to see that visual on TV! I am living in the land where Rand is different from Dad.

    I have a nephew who is a Ronulan. He has a tremendouse IQ; smart enough to know better. Just don’t get it. Had to insist he quit sending me the propaganda.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    “One wrong step-a gaffe, a misquoting, a bad VP choice-and he might lose it.”

    … this is true of ANY Republican candidate. They are all one ‘macaca’ away from being toast.

    Cain has it. Newt G., Santorum, Bachmann has that problem. Palin if she runs too. They ALL do. It’s what you get when you are conservative. Any wrong word can bite you.

    Perry has won 6 statewide campaigns in Texas. He has a record as a candidate and governor and surely, even if he makes a slip, he is not half bad as a candidate. Perry is as disciplined in his campaigning as anyone, he’s no more gaffeprone than anyone else running.

    the only one who doesnt have lib-media colonoscopy NOW is Romney, because the media gives him a pass as the most media-favored candidates UNTIL he gets the nomination. Then all his flipflops will be on display and the media will ‘discover’ all the people his VC firm got fired and have them share their sob stories (they ran that playbook on Fiorina).

    Yet Romney is getting whip-sawed on global warming now.

    Of COURSE Huntsman is the liberals’ favorite Republican – he is the least conservative and he willing to bash conservative candidates in ways that liberals agree with. He should run in the Democrat primary and see how it goes.

  • Darin_H

    Same thing happened here in FL for the Senate race with Rubio/Crist/Dem.

    I’m not really worried about an independent Huntsman bid.

  • Scope

    on who the candidate is, and what party he is pandering to, so to speak. Huntsman hasn’t even tried to get the R leaning Independents, let alone the Republicas/conservatives. As I’ve posted elsewhere, Huntsman, in a PBS interview, said that we need “shared sacrifice” and that the wealthy need to pay their fair share. Is that exactly what Obama has been saying?

  • septembergurl

    Bachmann == I still think she is the most likely to win Iowa, because of the still-crowded field, etc.If it were a primary instead of a caucus, she would likely not win. But the timing and the field helps her. After that, I don’t see where she wins. If she loses Iowa, she’s toast.

    Huntsman == Contrary to Erick, he is not planning a third party run. He is positioning himself to run against Perry. Figuring, correctly, that he can let Perry/Bachmann take out Romney.

    Palin ==if she ran she would not win the nomination at this point. She can run in four or eight years.

    Perry == It will be interesting to see if he goes after Romney at the debate on Romneycare. I can’t see him pulling a Pawlenty, after he slammed mittens today on healthcare. But we will see. He has a lot of momentum from the rollout and that is still lifting him in the polls. He will have to figure out how much he wants to devote toNH and Iowa as opposed to SC, FL, NV, etc.

    Romney == I actually think Romney is in a much more perilous position than Erick seems to think. His frontrunner status was based on the notion of his electability vs that of others. This is no longer the case as other Reps do as well or better vs Obama in head-to head matchups. Second, name recognition and being the next one in line, etc, which is how we ended up with Presidents Dewey, Dole and McCain. As Erick says, this is less of a factor this time than it usually is. Third, Romney’s strategy was based on lack of an early challenger, especially a Southerner. When Jindal, Barbour, DeMint etc declined to run, this looked like a good strategy. Romney would be acceptable, everybody’s second choice, etc. He could run a cautious campaign, as he did up to now, and still win.
    Not. Going. To.Happen.

    The debate in September will be very interesting. In 2008 the focus was on foreign policy, wars, etc, an Senators ran in both parties since that is where FP is debated. This time the importance of executive experience is the focus, so we have a flock of governors.

    One thing that I don’t see discussed much is that these candidates were governors at the same time& worked together and know each other well. Including Palin, if she runs. Pawlenty and Huntsman were co-chairs of McCain’s campaign and Huntsman made a nominating speech for Palin at the convention. So there is a personal dynamic at work at these debates. I have a feeling that everybody likes Perry and they don’t like Romney.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Perry has been Texas Governor for 10 YEARS!
    He was head of the national Republican Governors Association. Want to know where he stands? 2 books – On My Honor, and Fed Up – point the way. hasnt debated yet? Well, he’s been through only 6 statewide races and countless debates.

    Sure, we have to see how he performs in a national campaign, but all except Romney are new at it, and some (like Gingrich and Pawlenty) have fizzled while Perry so far has been strong.

    So, rather than call the most proven candidate with the longest record of political leadership ‘unproven’, lets just say he has to show what he’s got as the campaign plays out.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    He is a guy who was polarizing (and not in a good way) in congress, then got kicked out. He is big on moral issues at a time when we are faced with the biggest fiscal crises in our history, and on those matters he comes out as less than inspired.

  • Darin_H

    And as much as he probably looks in the mirror and sees a president, he also looks in the mirror and sees money. He knows that a 2nd Obama term is really, really going to hit his bottom line. I don’t think he’ll do anything other than knock Obama.

  • azaeroprof

    While no one knows with certainty what Palin will do, I will say with 100% certainty that she will NOT run 3rd party.

    (Actually, there is one condition under which she might, and that is if Huntsman were to get the GOP nomination. In that circumstance, the adage that a 3rd party candidate would hand the election to Obama might be challenged.)

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    I see Perry and Bachmann as the two front runners by the time of the first primaries. Romney will find out yet again that Americans will not elect a resume’ they elect a real person.

  • mikeymike143

    would take more votes from democrats than republicans. since neither paul nor huntsman is a conservative.

    in huntsman’s case, that means taking 6 votes from obama. not 6%, 6 votes total. why anyone claiming to be a conservative republican supports this man is beyond me.

    and ron paul will draw the support of the ”anti war left” and those who ”hate america for being great”. both groups are dyed in the wool democratic voters.

    neither paul nor huntsman is going to win the republican primary or cause obama to get reelected if they decide to run as a third party candidate.

  • azaeroprof

    Since you missed it: “at least on the national stage.”

    The ash heap of failed presidential campaigns is littered with the corpses of politicians who were great successes in their own states (either as senators or governors). So far, Perry has done well. But it’s 2 weeks. I hope to God he shines, but that’s why we have campaigns.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    nt

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    and fear mongering mixed with some self serving rhetoric, then yeah, he put him in his place.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    .

  • bk

    Obama’s folks have come out with the lies flying vs Rick Perry, making it look to the average person as if Rick Perry has already won the nomination and no other Republican matters.

  • bk

    Someone above pointed out that Paul would pick up the hardcore anti-war vote. If he stays out, could there be some serious anti-war candidate from the left enter the race? I don’t expect it would be a major greenie like Gore, but could someone run from the left run and siphon off some Obama votes?

    Having said that, it would be awfully difficult for anyone other than on the Libertarian or maybe the Green ticket to get on lots of states, but swinging a couple of decent size states could affect the outcome.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Kind of like Scott Brown showing some leg to the Tea Party for his moneybombs but not going within a mile of any of their people, places, or things.

    Gotcha.

    Palin won’t be any less of a pariah to the professional campaign handlers than she is onw after she announces she won’t run (if she does) or after she does get in, whether she wins or loses.

    Oh,sure, she’ll be welcomed in certain state and local races, but she’ll be persona non grata to the national GOP in 2012.

    Count on it.

    Oh, and becker, like the sign says, be respectful, instead of the “as usual” snark.

  • Scope

    He is at 60% that he will run. Will he, I have no idea.

  • mboyle1988

    than a proven loser. Romney has won 1 election in his lifetime and lost two. Perry is 10-0. Even on the national stage, okay Perry has never won, but Romney’s 2008 campaign was a bona fide disaster. How is that “proving” anything other than the fact that the guy is the Republican version of John Kerry? The fact that Romney lost Iowa AND New Hampshire last time despite going into the final week of both contests with polling leads (especially NH) speaks to the absolute and utter disgrace of Romney the candidate and Romney the campaigner. Bachmann is more electable than Romney, and a quick glance at her electoral history, not to mention her disciplined campaigning, should speak to that.

    As soon as the public gets a hold of Romney’s flip flops, they will no longer trust him. People may dislike Perry, but they will dislike Obama more, and will trust him. Trust is important. Obama’s only route to victory is to convince America that his opponent is untrustworthy. You can’t do that to Rick Perry. You can say he’s a stupid Texan, but you can’t tarnish his record or say he’s a liar or shady. Romney can easily be painted as a shady liar (though I personally just think he’s opportunistic). Romney is also too much of a snob to fight in campaigns. We need someone who is going to get nasty. Perry is that guy. Romney never will be. Again, I’ll take proven six times state wide in the second largest state in America over a proven failure at the national level.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    that you are totally out of touch with reality.

    1. Scott Brown. If you’ve got a more conservative candidate who could possibly win in Massachusetts, who is s/he? Put up or quit whining about Brown.

    2. Palin’s problems are of Palin’s making.

    3. If Perry is the nominee, Palin will most certainly have a role in the election, they’ve worked together in the past and there’s nothing at this point that would indicate that he would want to change that. I certainly wouldn’t classify her as a “kingmaker” simply because she’s pretty well played out her welcome with most of the voters. As I noted above, she should certainly have a role in a Perry campaign in targeted ways. And that, incidently, is exactly how every politician is used in a presidential campaign, in targeted ways. You might even see Rudy campaigning for Perry in the Northeast, because it would make sense.

  • azaeroprof

    are you trying to convince me Perry is better than Romney? My response would be “you had me at Perry”! I’m a Palinite, ready to back Perry if she doesn’t run.

  • apex_phil

    Palin endorses Perry. Maybe it will be a Perry/Bachmann ticket–I could dig that.

  • aesthete

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rudy return the favor.

  • swami7774

    …start appealing to “moderate” Republicans once he formalizes his bid. That way he draws enough of them away to ensure Obama a second term–and himself another appointment.

  • perry4prez

    @kyle8, fiscal issues ARE moral issues. It is immoral to bankrupt our Nation by spending and passing Unconstitutional laws.

  • acat

    The two terms, illegal and immoral, are not as well aquainted as the proverbial kissin’ cousins.

    Between the two, I’ll take illegal. Easier to prove, forum in which to prove is well defined (court of law as opposed to court of public opinion) and less likely to cause blowback.

    Your mileage may, of course, vary.

    Mew

  • perry4prez

    A Perry-Bachmann ticket would be a dream team and would allow Michele Bachmann the time to build executive experience for 2020.

  • mikeymike143

    my post about someone actually trying to make a case for huntsman was directed at big red conservative. i guess a few people posted in front of me and i didnt want to get that mixed up

  • acat

    or head of the IRS….

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Rudy could likely be a huge help to Perry.

  • Raven

    Until and unless he wins this state again in a statewide election (like winning his old job back) he won’t take it in a presidential primary.

    Pennsylvanians don’t like him anymore.

  • aesthete

    nt

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    and you are trolling this little gem around, if you don’t like Scott Brown please post the names of realistic conservative candidates who can win that seat, not just in the primary but the general as well.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    if it expects its national icon to get the time of day from the GOP, except for fundraising, when the rubber meets road.

    I never suggested primarying Scott Brown, but I don’t have to get suckered into contributing to his moneybombs again either.

  • pantera

    Sarah will run. She stood up right after baracks nomination and started swing along with Rush and Hannity. She help greatly in rallying the tea party movement. Shes building a grassroots army who is anxious to go to battle.

    Its a long time till Iowa.

  • gracie

    /nt

  • audax

    OK, make the choice mikeymike143…which would you rather have?

    Santorum, true to form, throws Joe Miller under the bus over RINO Lisa MOOCowski, now we have another RINO doing her damage for 6 years.

    Santorum doesn’t know his way around foreign policy or geography for that matter and still thinks Bethleham is in the Gaza Strip.

    Oh well, he did put Ron Paul in his place (snark on).

  • davesinsanantonio

    nt

  • davesinsanantonio

    would attack Obummer’s policies and point out what disasters they have been, and also to articulate the American and constitutional principles and successes that used to be taught and modeled in the schools. The press cannot and will not ignore her, because somehow they think she is wrong in her love for this country. I seriously doubt she could win, but she sure could rouse the voters to take back their government, and that can only help truly conservative candidates.

  • davesinsanantonio

    IS the way “the way to go” when you are in a war with elements who hate what this country stands for and has accomplished in the way of individual freedoms and prosperity, and want to “fundamentally transform America”!!!
    And, to “be quiet for a while” in such a war only aids the enemy!

  • mikeymike143

    nothing short of extreme voter fraud would give obummer/biden the win over that ticket. although with holder in the DOJ and the SEIU manning the voting machines anything is possible.

  • davesinsanantonio

    but didn’t re-elect the “person” in ’92.

  • davesinsanantonio

    a far-Left candidate could make Obummer’s primary season miserable, and force him to spend a lot of his campaign cash before he wants to.

  • davesinsanantonio

    in rallying the movement to go into battle against Obummer, not a fellow conservative.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    and for good reason

  • popster

    One can only pray the voters have become aware of politicians and snake oil salesmen of the 2008 cycle, and grown up. This we need to regain the Country as we knew and loved it, prior to the progressive/socialist movement.

  • yragnostaw

    If Romney is the nominee for the Republicans and Obama is the nominee for the Democrats, I will go to the polls and vote, but I will leave the choice for President blank. There are many here in the Midwest who will do the same. So, if the Republicans want to insure Obama of four more years, then choose Romney as the Republican candidate. If he is the best the Republicans can offer, Obama will have a second term. And I am not a bigot nor an idiot!

  • gunslingr45

    Perry is your pick Erick? We got that already.

  • gregorysstewart

    It is not an insult, or a violation of the 11th commandment to say that someone is not properly positioned to win the job of president, and I do not make that judgement about Huntsman because of some personal disdain, but because he doesn’t have the equipment that would be needed to win a general election.

    Let’s start with the backing of the MSM. I see Huntsman mentioned in the NYT every single day, even though he polls less that Rick Sanatorium, who is never quoted. The day Huntsman became a national candidate, his MSM support would evaporate like a sugar cube in hot tea.

    His religion would all of a sudden become a problem. It would take that Seinfeld like, snarky tone, “What about the magic pajamas”, followed up by “Not that there is anything wrong with that.” Newsweek will have a picture of him in front of the Salt Lake City Tabernacle, and question if America is ready for a Mormon theocracy.

    He doesn’t have the money. Sure he is rich, and yes he can self finance a nomination run, but he does not have the kind of fundraising prowess that will help him compete with Obama’s billion dollar budget.

    He doesn’t have the army. Modern elections are about more than just capturing the 10% of the Independents that are truly independent. They are about increasing voter registrations, knocking on doors, writing letters to the editor, manning phone banks, getting out the vote and engendering enthusiasm that will translate to a broader public. The Democrats have the unions and their amalgam of victimization groups to do that. Republicans will have the tea party activists, NRA and evangelicals to do the same thing. Huntsman would not be able to count on those groups. He would be buried.

    Huntsman does not have the heart for this election. He has vowed not to mention Obama by name in the election, and he seeks out opportunities to say he agrees with the president. That may make him a nice guy, but not combative enough to take on Obama.

    There IS a place for Huntsman, and there IS a place for him in the Republican party. He will be important, even vital as an intermediary between the parties in a Republican administration.

  • unclefred

    not reflected in the national numbers. Anderson took a much higher percentage of the vote in key eastern states. This resulted in a much higher electoral vote count from the states whose polls closed by 8:00 pm eastern time. This caused all the major networks to call the race for Reagan hours before the polls closed in the rest of the country. Many people who would have voted for a Democrate down ticket did not show up, which gained Reagan a Republican Senate and a more support in the House.

    Without Anderson on ballot, Carter would have won those eastern states and although Reagan would have certainly won by a solid margin, his landslide and coattails would have been smaller.

  • mattwaters

    really, that’s all you can say about Paul, “he won’t win.” I think he already has, as it appears Bachmann and Perry are reading his materials, but they can’t quite get it. There are trying however. Paul has surpassed Bachmann in the polls, will probably come in second in NH (in front of Ricky), may be a surprise in Iowa…why is it that Redstate, HumanEvents, Nat’lReview, and supposedly conservative “hot spots” continue to crap on Paul. He polls nearly even to Obama, like Perry. I find it remarkable. Rick “al gore” Perry? Really?

    I think it is a texas shoot-out between Perry and Paul right now.

    And, here’s a thought: Palin runs as an Independent, not Paul.

  • carolynr

    I get to listen to Erick on the radio at night and that is refreshing because it is hard to get any reception where I live…except if I am on the Internet.

    Romney – well his exchange with the woman asking a question about the government taking care of her did not come off as the pundits are spinning it. You can disagree with her…but when you come off as “shut up and sit down”…that sounds like dictator Obama. Look…I don’t like Romney on Cap& Trade…I don’t like the Romneycare..which, btw, he refused to apologize for…it too had a mandate. Then the pundits spin this that he was a businessman…head of a hedge fund…WELL GUYS..SO IS GEORGE SOROS…do you follow him off the cliff…I hope not. The man is “connected”…and connected means to me…more dirty dealing under the table.

    Bachmann – She been a trooper for the people…but she lacks the “umph” or gravitas to be the president. I admire her stamina…but the press will paint her the same way they did Palin. The sheeples will follow and that is the end of Michele.

    Huntsman – That man is a disaster – heard him on Cavuto last night and he said “he didn’t care what the Conservatives thought”. Well, that insults me. I’m not some war hawk that wants to fight all over the world…but I am Conservative…is that a “dirty” word now. The man is a Liberal.

    Paul – He is what is right on the domestic front (for the most part) but he is way off base concerning Iran and that was the death nail in the debates…he is gone.

    Perry – Who said it back in the 90′s…”it’s the economy stupid”. Well…today…IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID and guess who has provided the atmosphere for JOBS….Perry and the Texas Legislature. I also want to hear some “convincing evidence” about Global Warming before I spend half my monthly income on my electric bill. CO2….how are we going to get rid of it…stop breathing, cut down ALL of the trees…get rid of the oceans (the biggest contributor to CO2) Can we aim for cleaner air standards WITHOUT HAVING WINDMILLS AND SOLAR PANELS everywhere we look….sure we can. Perry is for America…he believes in…(his words…how refreshing) THRIFT. For the intellectuals reading our posts…THAT MEANS STOP THE SPENDING.

    Know what…most “true” Americans…ARE FED UP.
    Pick…Perry in 2012…choices for VP…Giuliani, Rubio, or Cain. I especially want to see Rudy in there and if not VP…then give the man the keys for the Attorney General’s Office.

  • mattwaters

    I beg to differ. Paul handed Santorum’s head to him (like he did Rudy Giuliani in 08). Santorum needs to re-read the 10th Amendment. It’s not that long, take about 5 seconds to get this one right.

    & Gosh, I’m surprised at the carbon copies of empty suits the GOP continues to run after. Rick “al gore” Perry? Mitt “Obonmey” Romeny? This is really sad.

    Yet here is a guy who is driving the entire debate right now, and we disown him. There are no more thinkers on the right–Buckley, Goldwater, Reagan–all wrote and fought to conservative ideas–and the one guy doing that today is crapped on. And to see the Weakly Standard and NRO crying about Pawlenty…c’mon.

  • mattwaters

    Perry was a booster at A&M (male cheerleader) and Bachmann (the GOP cheerleader) would be terrible. This would invite someone with something between their ears to run.
    Althought the thought of Perry tossing Bachmann up in the air with her GOP pom poms could be quite interesting…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Also he’s a shameless porker.

    You see, we favor proponents of reduced government, not frauds like Paul.

  • gregorysstewart

    Paul is not running because he is so sure he will become president. He is running to inform the debate, and certainly the platform.

    He may in fact be winning already, if Bernanke holds up on QE3 because Perry and Paul are ready to denounce it.

    Paul has a very dedicated, and activist group of young supporters who should not be belittled or ignored. We should pray that their energy and their input will be part of our party for many years to come.

  • gekster

    He says let them have them.
    You know, the country that has sworn to eliminate Isreal.

    from:
    http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/ahmadinejad-iran-is-determined-to-eradicate-israel-1.380629

    excerpt:
    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran was determined to eradicate Israel, ISNA news agency reported Thursday.

    “Iran believes that whoever is for humanity should also be for eradicating the Zionist regime (Israel) as symbol of suppression and discrimination,” Ahmadinejad said in an interview with a Lebanese television network, carried by ISNA.

  • mattwaters

    Paul’s not gone, and he’s not going. He’ll be in until the end. My prediction: Texas Shootout: Perry v. Paul.

    And if Perry debates him, God help Perry. Perry had better start reading a few conservative classics first. I’d recommend Kirk’s the Conservative Mind, the US Constitution, maybe Goldwater’s Conscience of a Conservative. He may want to brush up on the GOP platform too–as Perry’s “Al Gore” day’s are a far cry from what this country needs now.

  • mattwaters

    I think Palin runs as independent if Romney or Perry is nominee.

    And why not? She avoids the process and gets the attention, and maybe she wins.

    Gregory is dead on: do not ignore Paul. He is polling within margin of error on Obama. Same as Perry.

  • Scope

    If there was any chance of a Perry v Paul shootout, as you claim, Paul better start practicing at the range like yesterday. It doesn’t take much to get Paul ranting out his loony junk, and I’m sure Perry will provide him with multiple opportunities to do so.

  • gekster

    I asked him a direct question and he runs to another thread.
    Doesn’t want to deal with facts that make his idol look bad.

  • Scope

    not interested in debating anything, or answering any questions. Their only goal is to spread as much anti-Perry garbage as they can. The guy just joined here, and has done nothing but run around and post pro-Paul drivel, and anti-Perry drivel. He will do himself in, they always do.

  • gekster

    It’s up to him to show if he has anything other than idol worship.

  • gekster

    was said in good nature.

  • Scope

    or geksta. I am only being funny also.

    I was actually aware of who Turbo was, from reading his ramblings and rants on another unmoderated VA website. He is rabidly libertarian, in the Ron Paul mold, and doesn’t care at all who the candidates are, as long as they follow the Ron Paul policies and doctrines. He said on the other site that RS is sexist, and they were going after Radtke because she is a conservative woman. He said he was studying the RS archives to find other anti-Palin posts here, as though we are sexist against Palin also. He copied and pasted a long post written by John Painter (remember him) who is out trashing Erick also, and saying that EE lost any credibilty when he said that Radtke was drunk during the speech, among other things. Josh Painter is also posting comments over at Dan Riehl’s site. Remember the same Dan that said he was going to make EE and RS crash and burn. Funny how you find out who your friends are and are not.

  • gregorysstewart

    Run as an independent. Really. She is not from outer space. Through Palin’s eyes, Obama is the Anti-Christ, and peeling away enough votes to give Obama a victory, for the sake of vanity makes no sense to her at all.

    Palin enjoys wide approval, west of the Hudson, in this party, and yes, her record shows that she is a kingmaker. Normal people do not jump off that perch without good reason.

    I have heard that Palin will endorse Perry on the 3rd of September, well… maybe, but I doubt it. Perry and Bachmann occupy large swaths of her political space, and she is well served to keep her council until one or the other retires from the field. Anything else would upset that part of the party that looks up to her.

  • pamelh2

    Well! I guess you told us!

    One line is all the guy deserves? God bless Ron Paul for being the only candidate with the guts to tell it like it is to BOTH sides.

    And God help America if Red State and all the other snarky, sneering go along git along Republicrat pundits are right!

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    are idiots of the first order. His foreign policy, such as it is, is dangerous. His domestic policy, and his knowledge of economics and finance, is even worse.

    The best thing about this election cycle is that he isn’t running for reelection so his constituents can actually get someone who represents their interests. His career in congress is one of utter hypocrisy and failure. He’s the king of pork and he’s yet to win over one other member of the House to any of his positions. It is to Bohener’s shame that he didn’t throw Paul out out the GOP House caucus.