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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Moment With Lasting Impact

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 12th, 2011 at 09:56 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Joining the league of people who got to the first tier, Herman Cain is now under withering fire for his 9-9-9 plan and what it’ll mean for the country. Thus far he has held his own, but he is going to have to do better.

For example, saying that he’d require a 2/3 vote to repeal his plan is unconstitutional unless he somehow is able to get it stuck in the constitution as an amendment thereto.

Likewise, saying the American people will keep pressure on Congress to not alter or increase the rates is not credible given that Cain and the other Republicans are fighting to repeal a health care law that Congress and the White House pushed through despite a majority of Americans opposed to it and a tea party movement energized to fight it.

But that will not be the lasting impact as I suspect Herman will necessarily have to start adding more substance to his plan and overcome the historic fact that European countries, after World War II, had national sales taxes that morphed to VAT taxes because of the black market trade. European politicians, once the sales tax was introduced, made the case to the public that law abiding citizens were being taken advantage of by tax cheats and the VAT would stamp out that problem. Over time, the European sales taxes became VAT’s. The same will happen here.

Again though, that’s not the lasting impact. What will last and is already percolating are those bits of sunshine between Herman Cain and the Tea Party. Herman’s support of TARP, shared with Mitt Romney, and his explanation of the theory of TARP and the implementation of TARP diverging — did it really? Opening the doors to government bailouts could come back to bite Herman with the Tea Party.

Likewise, citing Alan Greenspan at this moment in time as a good Fed Chairman is not helpful.

Herman is running as the tea party favorite. They love his 999 plan. Bailouts, TARP, and Greenspan may, however, be a bridge too far — especially when he has Mitt Romney agreeing with him.

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  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    Being able to campaign around the country telling people in say Ohio that Cain is going to raise their sales tax to 15+% while cutting taxes on corporations is going to play right into the class warfare mantra that Obama is going to run on. Also, with many economists skeptical that the 9-9-9 plan even comes close to being revenue neutral and is likely much more regressive (details please) I just don’t see this as a winning political point regardless of how the economics of the plan would work in the long run.

  • bzip

    Coming from the guy who has never held elected office, no experience so we can’t look back to a record of how he would govern Cain’s 999 plan sure gives us insight to his thinking and judgment. Yes, a new national sales tax that can and would go up and up. Not a great way to start off, what a Cain Train Wreck.

  • liberty3

    This article is precisely why conservatives don’t win. They fight each other. Is any one of the candidates perfect? NO! Compared to Obama YES! Cain needs more money and some good advisers. He basically is very bright, sincere and most of all PATRIOTIC!! He will fight for our country. You are all playing into the hands of Romney and now Christie. NO MORE RINO’S !!! Fight for ONE conservative, rather than fighting each other. Sarah Palin, I might add, could still or should have made the most important contribution to this campaign by letting all her organization go for Cain. She is mysteriously mum—again playing into Romney’s hands. NOTICE HOW THE RULING CLASS LIBERALS WORK. Money. Quietly. Backstage. Then rally around ONE—Romney. Sorry folks no more RINOS. Romney is the same as Obama except in skin color. See this video.
    http://trevorloudon.com/2011/10/please-please-gop-anyone-but-mitt-except-for-newt-that-is/

    How about this quote from Bill Buckley:
    “Marx himself, in the course of his lifetime, envisaged two broad lines of action that could be adopted to destroy the bourgeoisie: one was violent revolution; the other, a slow increase of state power, rhrough extended social services, taxation and regulation, to a point where a smooth transition could be effected from an individualist to a collectivist society.” (God and Man at Yale)

    Who sounds like Obama?
    Who sounds like Romney?

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Over time, the European sales taxes became VAT?s. The same will happen here.

    Understanding the fundamental concepts of running is business is one thing. Understanding the fundamental concepts of governmental economics and political, legislative tendencies is entirely different. That is why some experience as a governor is necessary. That tenure prepares you for the Executive office.

    There is no doubt some of the basic concepts of economic policy apply to both. This is evident in simple contemporary issues like reducing spending, balancing the budget and lowering debt. Those actions are simply sound business and fiscal policies everywhere except Washington D.C.

    But achieving policy is a very different matter. That is why a plan must be well thought out; in particular, to plot a strategy for execution and implementation. It must be fungible in a way that does not detract from your overall purpose. It must stand the test of time and soundness, something that Medicare and Social Security did not. Unfortunately, 9-9-9 does not and given it underpins Mr. Cain’s campaign, it will hang around his neck like an albatross.

    By the way; why are Bachmann and Huntsman still on the stage? Huntsman was never and will never be in the game. Bachmann just continues to embarrass herself with foolish comments such as those last night on Mr. Cain’s plan.

  • uncmike

    is revoked, I do not support any form of national sales or VAT tax because we’ll end up with both an income tax and these other taxes–that’s just how politicians work. They want more tax money so they can spend more on their friends who help them stay in office. While I applaud Cain for wanting to revise our current system, it has to be done very carefully, and not with some kind of 9-9-9 plan that he has not completely thought through. Now he moves up to the firing line in this political season.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    Cain did o.k.. As Erick said above, he has to be careful where he treads. The Greenspan call-out was unnecessary. TARP was ok, but should have been explained as a ‘once in a lifetime’ occurrence. Frankly, Romney did a better job explaining his support than Cain did.

    I agree with above posters about the sales tax…the last thing we need is to give liberals another avenue to allocate ‘revenues’ from the American people.

    I wish someone would come out for a flat tax…but apparently, these candidates don’t have that type of vision or imagination.

  • renl57

    Of course we could end up with both taxes.

    But that doesn’t mean we couldn’t cut the income tax sharply while imposing a sales tax.

    Income tax cuts have happened many times before.

    Look, all candidates’ economic plans get greatly modified–if not trashed–after they get into office and see what the situation is at that time. So a President Cain wouldn’t stick to the letter of Candidate Cain’s plan.

    But Cain’s *intention* is right: The need to start moving away–at least somewhat–from taxing income (which hurts incentive) to taxing consumption.

    Cain is really telling folks (Republicans included) what they don’t want to hear: The days of buying more and more expensive gadgets and more and more expensive cars on credit–going deeper and deeper into personal debt–are over. We can’t maintain a superpower economy on consumer debt. And the tax system should be changed to reflect that.

    Debt-fueled consumerism is not capitalism.

  • bzip

    Cain did real lousy but the media is spinning things as usual.

    Greenspan support by Cain could be a “Heartless” moment for him on top of his flip-flopping on auditing the fed. Then the support of TARP pretty much agreeing with Romney….these are all very bad but if everyone has already made Cain the next Messiah it won’t matter at all.

  • badspotteddog

    If you have paid attention to the details of 9 9 9, you would understand that it means 9% sales tax, not 15%. It is NOT adding 9%, it is changing the tax TO 9%.
    Also, most people pay 15% income tax (including payroll tax), and that will be lowered to 9%. People would be paying less, but with everything streamlined, and everyone paying their fair share, we would take in more money. As Cain would say, “do the math”.
    Yes .. it may be tough (for most) to convince Congress to pass this, but not for Cain. In case you haven’t noticed, any time he speaks … people rally in support. I’ve even seen liberals change their tune after hearing him speak!
    I don’t know of any president in my lifetime who has had this ability.
    This is Cain’s magic, and this is how he may just win.

  • Darin_H

    You must be new, Erick was in the tank for Cain 3 months ago, then in the tank for Perry a month ago and just last week was back in the tank for Cain. Apparently he’s no longer in the tank for Cain…..

  • perry4prez

    It is gaffe gaffe gaffe with him. First the gaffe about blaming the unemployed not Obama. Then the “Perry is a racist” thing. Then the near endorsement of Romney. Now Greenspan. How can anyone take this guy seriously?

  • avagreen

    His flipflops are many, which no one seems to be bringing out. The Federal Reserve is just one of those.

    Just google “(Almost) Anybody But Herman Cain” to see all of them.

  • badspotteddog

    Yes .. it may be tough (for most) to convince Congress to pass his plan, but not for Cain.
    In case you haven’t noticed, any time he speaks … people (even doubters) rally in support. I’ve even seen liberals change their tune after hearing him speak!
    I don’t know of any president, or politician, in my lifetime, who has had this gift.

    Why? Because he not only has answers, he motivates people!
    People can tell he is sincere. He has been where we are, and he has the ability to be able to relate to every American who hears him. He does not talk in circles, and avoid answers. If he doesn’t know something, he admits to not knowing.
    People don’t want a slick politician that spews out convoluted, pre fab information.
    Cain is real .. and real is what people want.
    This is Cain’s magic, and this is how he may just win.

  • rogerallan70

    Yes, Herman Cain has made some pretty nice gaffes. So has Rick Perry, MItt Romney, Michele Bachmann, et. al.

    These candidates are human, humans misspeak. I do it all the time. I defended Obama against the criticism for his gaffes. Of course the man knows we don’t have 57 states.

    Let’s get real, focus on the issues and stop expecting every candidate to speak flawlessly every time they get a microphone.

  • Scope

    Got it. When will he just wave his magic wand and make everyone else disappear from the candidate stage so he can get on his big white horse and ride to the Greek columns for his coronation.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    So, are you telling me that in Ohio, the national sales tax would be only 2.5% or are you saying that Cain would somehow eliminate Ohio’s sales tax and replace it with his? And under either scenario, can you explain how this is even remotely revenue neutral and non-regressive?

  • fredforamerica

    Some of you commenters sounds like you’re awfully eager to bury Cain and resurrect Perry. I don’t think last night’s debate will have much impact on any of the candidates, simply because it wasn’t watched by many people. I’ll gladly vote for either Cain or Perry against Obama, but Cain remains my first choice at this point.

    I think the bottom line of what Erick is saying here is that the Hermanator (and any conservative candidate who wants to lead us toward a Fair Tax that is sales tax based) needs to provide us with two things:

    1) Assurance to conservatives that when a national sales tax is implemented, it cannot be hijacked by liberals in Congress and raised to harmful levels. Pledging support for a Constitutional Amendment to balance the budget and requiring a supermajority for tax increases before the 9-9-9 plan goes into effect would provide this assurance. In the time it takes to debate out a constitutional amendment and implement 9-9-9, Cain could lead Congress to get rid of the capital gains tax, repeal ObamaCare, and provide other tax incentives to boost the economy.

    2) Articulation that the long-term goal of Cain’s economic policy is an eventual transition to the FairTax system of taxation at the federal level. This is the end result of Cain’s plan. 9-9-9 is simply a bridge on the road to getting there.

    You can see the details of Cain’s plan at:
    http://www.hermancain.com/999plan

    As for the Greenspan comment, I don’t think it will have that much impact on the horserace, but he needs to learn from it. He was trapped by the questioner into naming a past Fed Chairman. Cain could have done better by not naming a Fed Chairman and listing the qualities he’s looking for in one. A teachable moment, and hopefully Cain will apply it to future debates. Good conservative candidates should never accept the premise of liberal debate moderators and journalists when they throw out these types of questions.

  • Scope

    I must have missed where Perry has been getting a pass on all his gaffes which incidently he has never made.

    For Cain it’s not so much the gaffes, it’s his inability to take ownership of those gaffes and tries to spin it that he was just misunderstood, even when there are videos of his original statements. Cain seems to have a problem with admitting to having made any mistakes. At least Perry owns up to his mistakes.

    The most telling spin coming from Cain was when he said he wouldn’t appoint any muslims to his admin. He goes on Glenn Becks show and tries to say he was misunderstood. He has now said many times that he was just misunderstood. That’s odd coming from someone who is supposed to be such a great speaker and communicator. Shouldn’t he have the correct way of saying what he means in the first place?

  • unclefred

    Cain was the run-away winner.

    Why do I say this? Because a bunch of my “politically casual” friends, called me to tell me this morning. These were spontaneous calls, from friends who know I am a political junkie. The opening of every call went like this:
    “Did you see last nights debate?”
    “Yes”
    “So, are you a Cain guy like me?”

    The posters and commenters here are political activists. We hear Cain say that he would select a fed chairman like Greenspan and we each weigh it on our finely crafted political scales. This mornings callers are nothing like us. They hold political opinions and pay some passing attention to ongoing nomination process, but they could not contract Greenspan and Volker to save their souls. These people generally don’t watch the debates, or tune in for a couple of minutes before moving on. In more than four decades following politics, I have never seen this kind of spontaneous reaction to a candidate for the Republican nomination from this segment of the voting populace.

    The OP and other commenters have made various points about what Cain could or needs to do better. About things they take as telling missteps. They worry nuances from various observations they make about his performance. As a fellow activist, I agree with some and disagree with others. In some sense it doesn’t matter because, to the average voter, we are arguing about the number of angels who can fit on the head of a pin.

    Make no mistake. Cain won that debate, help his momentum, gained substantial name recognition, and is this morning the topic of casual political analysis around water coolers all across this nation.

  • rogerallan70

    Nobody has been getting a pass on their gaffes and they have all made them and none of them have taken “ownership” of them.

    To be clear, I am not a Cain supporter, I am not in the tank for any of these candidates yet, I simply have not decided. As an Independent, I can’t even vote in my states primary anyway so it’s irrelevant.

  • unclefred

    “contract Greenspan to Volker” should have read “contrast Greenspan to Volker”

  • badspotteddog

    That’s it.
    Ignore the bulk of the comment, focus on one word, and formulate a twisted response that has no substance.
    That’s what libs do … right?

    Are you a Trojan Horse? (since your reply seems to be based on ancient history)

  • badspotteddog

    Here are all the details.

    http://www.hermancain.com/999plan

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    so there are three possible outcomes in order of most likely to least:

    1) the national sales tax is on top of any existing state sales tax since the federal government has no authority to end state sales taxes. This puts us back to an Ohio tax rate in excess of 15%.

    2) The national rate varies so that the highest sales tax rate anyone would pay is 9%, so in Ohio it would be between 2-2.5% and in Chicago it would be zero.

    3) Somehow Cain ends all state income taxes and gets his national one in as a replacement. I have no idea how this could work and the states would still have to make up the revenue somewhere else, but why not.

  • badspotteddog

    999 is a prelude to the Fair Tax … as the website shows.

    Elimination of the IRS and income tax puts WAY more dollars into individual’s pockets every week.

    If you have studied the Fair Tax, (fairtax.org) you would know that govt would run solely from sales tax. Yes .. state tax. States are responsible for paying the feds from taxes collected.

    Dems, however do not want states to have more control, so this is why the fair tax has not gotten further.
    999 is an introduction to Fair Tax, thus making it more possible to enact.

    The more you spend, the more taxes you pay.
    Individuals would get a credit each year for taxes paid on necessities.

    This plan has been studied, hashes out, and analyzed for years, and it undoubtedly will make more revenue for govt and puts way more money into everyone’s pockets, which will boost our economy.

  • Scope

    Who will be in Washington to collect the income and corporate taxes at whatever rate they are? Who in Washington will be collecting that whole new national sales tax program? Wouldn’t that mean that with a new national sales tax to collect, it will grow the federal government?

  • Change Jar Conservative

    My 16 year old daughter’s take on Cain and Romney during the few minutes she stopped in.

    Cain — Wow. He looks really nervous.

    Romney — That guy looks overly slick and almost a bit slimey.

  • Jim Tomasik

    Apparently, Herman Cain is inspiring some high school seniors in North MS.

    I am so excited to see Herman Cain coming to the south. I teach 12th Grade American Government at SBEC ( a private school) in Southaven, MS. My students are required to campaign for the candidate of their choice during the election period. I have shown all of the debates in my class and then I took a poll to see who they are supporting. Even from the first debate all my students chose Herman Cain!!! I was sooo excited, because he is my choice candidate also. I did not influence them in any way how to vote or choose their candidate. When they heard he was coming to Bartlett, they said, ?Oh, why can?t he stop by here so we can give him a great send off into Tennessee?? I told them I would get in touch with someone and find out. I really did not know who to contact until I got your email today, so is this a sign that he needs to see my students? I know he has a tight schedule. The students will not be able to go and see him, even while he is in Bartlett. I am showing them last night?s debate today in class. Please convey my students? wish to see him to Mr. Cain. Tell him these students are fired up for him and wish him God?s best during the campaign! Thanks so much for your time!

    Elaine J****
    Government, Psychology
    Student Council
    Southern Baptist Educational Center

    STAND FIRM: Blessed is the man who perseveres under trials; because when he has stood the test, he will receive the crown of life that God has promised to those who love Him. James 1:12 the

  • badspotteddog

    @Scope … you must not know much about the Fair Tax. Please look at it here … fairtax.org.

    There would be no more income or corporate taxes. It would shrink the Federal Govt.

    It will save us from the train wreck we are surely headed for! Please Please read about it, and tell others.
    Mis information is the biggest enemy here.

  • BA Cyclone

    Yes the “sales tax” net is federal plus state.

    But the state sales tax has nothing to do with the argument.

    The Cain plan replaces TWO income taxes (personal and FICA, technically 3 taxes total) with the one 9% sales tax you pay directly, and a flat 9% income tax. The average employee normally pays 7.65% income tax to FICA (the employer pays this again as well) and then you pay the federal income tax. So in super-simplified terms for everyone paying a net personal income tax of more than 10.35%, it is a net personal tax cut if we assume zero deductions. (Cain has said some deductions may remain)

    If we dig deeper and note that people generally don’t spend 100% of their income on taxable (new) goods, the potential tax cut window goes down farther.

    Yes, some people at the very bottom of the income brackets will have their “taxes raised” — but any FAIR tax structure that addresses 53% of the eligible taxpayers paying the whole bill will do that. This is not unique to Cain’s plan. In my view, everyone has to have skin in the game and you’d be hard pressed to spin a flat tax as unfair, without opening yourself to the argument that it’s de facto immoral for some people to live at the expense of other people, forever through the tax code merely because they make X per year.

  • davesinsanantonio

    there will be a 9% corporate income tax rate, and a 9% personal income tax rate, the other two 9s in his 9-9-9 plan! Stop saying there will be “no more income or corporate taxes. Yes, there will be! And, what is to prevent future congresses from raising those 9s to 10s or 11s? Or even higher? His statement that “he would require” a 2/3 vote to do that? On what authority???
    Remember, “for every complex problem there is a simple solution “THAT IS COMPLETELY WRONG!” !!!

  • davesinsanantonio

    Income taxes increases “have happened many times before”!

    If “President Cain wouldn’t stick to the letter of Candidate Cain’s plan”, what good is it?

    “The road to Hell is paved with good ‘intentions’”!

    If “we could end up with both taxes” that certainly does NOT mean Congress would necessarily “cut the income tax sharply”!!! Even a Republican one!

    All this magic “pie-in-the -sky” stuff is just as much wishful thinking as was “hope and change” four years ago! It is fluff based on quicksand. Until we get some concrete details, and the factual analysis to back them up, this 9-9-9 Plan is just a dangerous trap or opium pipe dream. Start talking details and facts instead of wishful thinking.

  • davesinsanantonio

    Words have meaning, and their use has consequences. Yes, even ONE word.

    But more than that, your whole premise is faulty. If what you said was true, then everyone would already be a Cain supporter. Since they are not, he is NOT able to “rally” everyone in support. Nor is he able to “motivate” ALL people. He may have convinced some, even some liberals. I don’t know how long your lifetime has been, but Reagan was still president 23 years ago, and he could rally some and convert some, but even he did not get them all. And, Cain is not Reagan.
    Admiration us one thing, blind worship is another.

  • blcartwright

    and the 9-9-9 won’t do that. This morning Imus echoed my thoughts exactly when he said “How long until it’s 15-15-15?

    “Individuals would get a credit each year for taxes paid on necessities”
    Why make it complicated? I want a sales tax so that I never have to file any paper work with the government, it’s none of their damn business how much I make or where I spend it.

    Here in Pennsylvania we have a 6% state sales tax, but groceries, clothes and medicine aren’t taxed. That is determined at the cash register, not at the end of the year by someone in DC.

    As someone else mentioned here, another good thing about a sales tax is the potential that all the money can be collected by the states, who would then forward the appropriate portion to the Feds. You know how DC is always threatening to withhold highway funds unless the state does what it is told? How about the states threatening to withhold sales tax receipts from the feds?

    And as far as no IRS – in my dealings with state and federal tax agencies over the years, to the best of my knowledge the Social Security Administration records and collects all funds withheld from paychecks, keeps their share and then distributes the rest. If we don’t have to do any paper work detailing our income and spending, then we don’t need an IRS.

  • carolynr

    Hi there everybody! My two cents as usual. From the last debate, I began to form a more critical view of Herman Cain. I like his patriotic stance, I believe he loves America and I know that he does not agree with Obama. However, this is what I got out of the debate. The 9/9/9 Plan really worries me. Oh, I’d like some of these people who can afford i-phones, etc. to pay into the system…however like one of the bloggers posted, we would have to pass some constitutional amendment to keep it at 9/9/9..which is unlikely. Secondly, if states need more money…taxes on purchases could go through the roof…unless the Federal Government controls the states…AND THAT I DO NOT WANT. So…the economic plan…it’s out for me…too many holes, too many ways to further bankrupt the consumer. Further…the seniors would be really hurt. Big voting block.

    His pick of Alan Greenspan is better than Bernanke who scares the heck out of me. However, I really never understood a darn thing that came out of Greenspan’s mouth. I do know he was the Fed during the mega bubble that burst…and must have been aware of it during its rise to ruination. So…I’m not too keen on Greenspan.

    Another thing…I believe that Herman, while he is experienced in Main Street, does not know the EVIL ways of the Federal Government. I believe that he would make decisions on what makes sense in the outside world..while not taking into account the devious nature of the Congress. He has a good heart…the Federal Government does not. They eat their own. Perhaps that is a good thing if Romney gets in…he’ll be devoured…and btw…so will the entire populace of the USA.

  • shadowmane

    Erick is in the hole for anyone at this point. I think he’s still making up his mind.

  • Darin_H

    this guy is just a candi-bot, any criticism of his preferred candidate is met with talking points, so I was just giving the troll what he deserved.

  • kenchely

    If you’re going to say that the sales tax in Ohio would be 15%, then what do you say the income tax rate there is right now? It’s re-allocating the way taxation is done, not increasing taxation.

    The simplification of the code involved would reduce expenses right there. The average family wouldn’t have to go and pay to have its taxes done, and businesses wouldn’t have to pay thousands of dollars to have theirs done.

  • kenchely

    If you’re going to say that the sales tax in Ohio would be 15%, then what do you say the income tax rate there is right now? It’s re-allocating the way taxation is done, not increasing taxation.

    The simplification of the code involved would reduce expenses right there. The average family wouldn’t have to go and pay to have its taxes done, and businesses wouldn’t have to pay thousands of dollars to have theirs done.

  • kenchely

    I never heard Cain said that he proposed to abolish the taxing authority of states, which would be wildly unconstitutional. He might have said that he would abolish the state tax deduction on the Federal income tax return. That would mean that Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania could stop paying for New York, California and Illinois.

  • kenchely

    If you’re an Obama supporter, it’s ludicrous for you to complain that Cain has no experience. He actually has been an executive; Obama had no executive experience. As a former Fed governor, he knows more about federal finance than Obama knows right now.

  • kenchely

    If you’re an Obama supporter, it’s ludicrous for you to complain that Cain has no experience. He actually has been an executive; Obama had no executive experience. As a former Fed governor, he knows more about federal finance than Obama knows right now.

  • ihateliberals

    What we hope to see in the next few weeks is that another conservative will float to the top and knock out Romney, Perry and Cain. either Paul or Bachman would be good. they would be conservatives you could believe in. 9-9-9 to me is the German way to say No to Cain, Romney and Perry but as a flat tax it stinks. I’d pay more and businesses would pay less and there would be no incentives for investments even if the money were available.

  • ihateliberals

    I am on a fixed SS Disability income now and it is so low that i barely get by and if I start getting taxed at 9% I would lose $130 per month plus I pay 6% on purchases now. If I also have to pay 9% on top of that now i am really down for example on $100 purchase I would be paying $6 sales tax now with Cain’s plan I would be paying $15. Now we are getting down to the point of do I eat or pay electric or order my medicines. sorry but i just can’t afford Mr Cain’s 9-9-9 program. Like Michele Bachman said if you turn this upside down it becomes 6-6-6. The Devil is in the Details.

  • izoneguy

    Obama would really raise Cain over this -

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Ron Paul and Bachmann have been in the race and found wanting. They will NOT get the support needed to win.

    Intrade is giving Romney 66% chance. He IS the frontrunner. You need a candidate strong enough to defeat him. Poll-wise, its Cain, but odds and history suggests it wont last.

    Otherwise, its Perry. But he needs a turnaround.
    Gingrich is the only other candidate not totally hosed at this point.

    Romney, Cain, Perry, Gingrich. Anyone else is irrelevent at this point, and unless Perry or Gingrich pull a game changer, it will be a Cain v Romney match by January.