Getting to a Brokered Convention

By: Erick Erickson (Diary) | December 6th, 2011 at 01:32 PM |

RESIZE: AAA

The level of angst over this year’s crop of candidates really is amazing. Honestly, I think it says more about Mitt Romney’s failure to seal the deal with conservatives between 2008 and 2012 than anything else.

But Steve Moore has this nugget in the Wall Street Journal’s Political Diary today:

Efforts are underway by some wealthy Republican donors and a group of conservative leaders to investigate whether a new Republican candidate could still get into the presidential race. The talk is still preliminary and somewhat wishful, but it reflects dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

Conservative leaders are looking into whether it is feasible for a dark horse to get on the ballot in select states. The deadline to qualifying for the ballot has passed in Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and New Hampshire. But a candidate could still get on the ballot in states like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Michigan and Texas. At the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, voters write in their choice, so there is no formal filing deadline.

The chatter about potential new entrants include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, businessman Donald Trump, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.

In other words, this could drag things out to a convention or a candidate could come on so strong that the first few states past Iowa wouldn’t matter. The other name being floated? Jeb Bush.

I’d take DeMint or Bush in a heartbeat, but let’s be clear what this is: wishful thinking.

We go to war with the army we have and we go to the ballot box with the field we have. As much as I wouldn’t mind a brokered convention, I don’t think it will happen — though miracles do still happen.

Also, I should note that a candidate getting in now might hit the Rick Perry problem and not actually be ready for prime time. A candidate, likewise, getting in at the convention would have to weather the media storm and inquiry in a way that the present candidates have not because that candidate would be the nominee and have bypassed everything now.

Don’t hold your breath. But prayer does work.

Tags: 2012

COMMENTS

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sedentaryactivist

…too early.

Get him back in.
http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

If he’s feeling up for it… otherwise Jeb Bush would be great to see getting into the ring.
the_invisible_hand

People can look at the circus primaries have become and perhaps long for the old school convention process. In fact, more states had their concerns and opinions heard in the old convention smoky rooms than now. If you aren’t a citizen of Iowa, NH, South Carolina, and Florida you probably don’t matter as much as you’d like to the Republican candidates.

I will agree with you that the brokered convention talk is premature and wishful thinking.

I would go further and suggest it might be poison for the general election in that there would be no campaign infrastructure for the nominee, the party would likely be split in acrimony, etc.

HOWEVER, if the field is as weak as it seems it could be a blast from the past in a good way. It could finally question the value of the stupid primary system we have. The brokered convention might also pick a better candidate than any of those that have subjected themselves to this circus. And perhaps, just perhaps, it could begin to challenge this notion that presidential campaigns should last for years.

It is at least possible that the sight of a brokered convention that brought about a strong candidate might breathe life into the party and make people in the general public actually pay attention to a convention for once which could only help the cause.
Marcus_Traianus

This type of hijinx would further relegate the Republican Party to histories dust heap. It would beget the appropriate lack of trust from voters. In sum total, it would also ensure the reelection of the worst President in our history.

It would also ensure the will of a well-healed minority acting in concert with various factions prevailed over the majority of others. I am somehow missing the way in which this brings us together and gives us a candidate we can all support, not to mention Independents in the General.

Ever notice the curious timing of these rumors? It always happens when some person or groups particular candidate is not doing well in the polls. One would hope there would at least be a brief pause to consider that coincidence.

Just one more effort by those who think they know better or believe themselves smarter than the rest of us.

It’s about time everyone stopped looking for the bogeyman under the bed and stopped listening to propaganda masquerading as conventional wisdom. Choose a candidate and let’s win together.
http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

If the race stays on the current track, it is easy to imagine a scenario in which Romney and Gingrich exchange body blows through out the primaries, but neither is able to deliver a knock out punch. In that case, Ron Paul could potentially amass enough delegates to prevent either Romney or Gingrich from reaching a majority. All he would need is 10 – 15%, which is certainly a possibility. The Paul delegates would never vote for either Romney or Gingrich, no matter how many ballots there were. Such a scenario could result in the emergence of a groundswell movement and search for a new candidate. Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Mario Rubio would all have their advocates. In such an atmosphere, Rubio could emerge as the consensus choice. After all, he has a much experience as Obama and would generate huge excitement. The election would be a landslide.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Funny, I thought we were still in business and in fact controlled the House.

That kind of hyperbole undermines any point you’re trying to make, unfortunately.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Either you work with the field we have and work to nominate the best candidate we have, or you’re not going to have a say in the process.

And you *know* the people who don’t get a say are going to whine constantly if we don’t get their preferred candidate. The word RiNO will even get thrown in.

So come on, folks. Time to get serious, pick a candidate, and participate in the process.

No time for prissy conservatives who are too scared to get their hands dirty in the real political process. Man up. Get to work.
donald_24

So you want to nominate an unvetted candidate through a brokered convention?

Who would you rahter have vet the candidates; Republicans during the primary, or the DNC during the general election?
wonkish1

Mitt Romney was one of the *more* conservative choices in 2008 which was definitely a testament to how crappy of a field that was than anything to say about Mitt Romney. I mean I absolutely hated the situation in 08 with a passion because the last 3 choices ended up being bad, worse, and worst. This cycle is a HUGE improvement.

It seems people don’t want to look at our history. Comparatively we probably have the most conservative fields since at least Reagan. Again that says more about past fields than anything, but its important to note the improvement.
acat

A brokered convention could only result in a compromise candidate, in the classical sense of the word – a candidate nobody is really thrilled with, but one who gives the least offense to any group.

Do we want to go into what is going to be an expensive, bruising, and fraud-riddled election, a clear “must win” election, an election where we *need* coattails, with “Mr. Least Offensive” ?

This does not sound like a winning strategery….

mew
dajeeps

While there are positive aspects to it, it could end up like the Dede Scozzafava debacle where we get a candidate no one can live with and we get 4 more years of Obama as a result. We would have to be sure there’s a general consensus that the candidate that comes out of the primary process is not desirable to anyone before embarking on such a path or face accusations of having a corrupt process that overrides the vote. It wouldn’t be something I would want to have happen given the pubic sentiment regarding the corrupt atmosphere of beltway politics in general.
http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

If it comes down to Gingrich or Romney, I will take an “unvetted” candidate any day, if his name is Rubio. He’s already proven he can win in the rough and tumble of Florida.
MF

GWB was a great social conservative, made great SCOTUS picks (after we eliminated Harriet Mills, who may or may not have been good, but certainly looked cronyish), and made pretty good moves while he had a (R) Congress. But he was FAR too big government for me. Don’t give me any of that “compassionate conservative” nonsense. That means NOT conservative in my book.

I know Jeb is not George, but I really haven’t paid much attention to him. Is he much better? And besides, do you really think he’ll be electable? Yeah, I hate that argument, but let’s face it, he’ll immediately be painted as Bush #3, and you know how much GWB was reviled by the left, and not loved by many of the conservatives, especially not for his work over his final two years.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

what makes anyone think they will suddenly find them for the General?

We have some good candidates out there, overall better than we did 4 years ago. I see no reason to go looking elsewhere.

Daniels? Why would his wife suddenly agree now? Just because it’s a shorter season?
Bush? Really?? Another Bush??? So what if he’s the best one, it’s time to be done with Clintons & Bushs. We don’t have royal families in the U.S.
Rudy? Because he’ll suddenly be more viable now than he was 4 years ago when his campaign was an utter failure?
Ryan? If you aren’t interested in working the minor leagues, I see no reason to give you a shot in the majors.
DeMint? See Ryan.
Trump? You gotta be kidding me. You think Newt is unreliable??
craigbardo

For DeMint perhaps and for Palin definitely but for the others, are you kidding?

With Palin out and Cain gone, Bachmann is the most consistently conservative candidate in the field and she’s getting better and better in the debates and in interviews. She’s got my support for now, Santorum after her.

Newt is less and less distinguishable from Romney in terms of positions taken and he’s certainly less disciplined. I can’t get excited about either. Perry continues to rehabilitate but his positions are “W” – esque. Call me Don Quixote but I don’t believe in settling.
kestrel

We seem to need some further relegating of something or someone, somewhere, somehow, some day. Soon. So long. You know? If so, please explain. Thanks.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

The only candidate who’d win a brokered convention is the guy whose turn it is.

So if you want a brokered convention because you hate Romney, you’re shooting yourself in the face.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

She had one too many retard vaccinations, and she’s unfit for the Presidency.
dajeeps

This election is too consequential to this country to take such risk. When you go to war, you have to take the military you have and give 1000% to make up for what is lacking. This doesn’t seem that different, at least to me. We are in a battle for definition of who we are and will be as a county for likely the next 50 years and what kind of politics and politicians are acceptable to that end. We cannot win that battle divided amongst ourselves, and I cannot think of anything more harmful to party unity than playing games with the nomination process after the votes have been counted.

I am not all that thrilled with the field. But I would take Gingrich over Romney and be satisfied that the majority of the things I currently have issues with will be resolved in a way that is livable and that we will actually survive fiscally and socially intact for the next decade or so at the very least, If what I consider the worst to happen actually happens and Romney is our nominee, then I will have to give my 1000% to be sure he doesn’t screw up this golden opportunity to ensure the era of big government is truly over. More than anything, getting us all through this fiscal and economic mess with society and country intact is the most important thing to me, and I will crawl over broken glass to see it though with whatever candidate comes out of the nominating process.
aesthete

He had one of the best small-government records as Governor of Florida, and his preferred educational reforms were far better than those of President Bush (vouchers and such). I’d say he was probably as squishy as his brother on amnesty, and they are about the same on social issues and free trade, but he would have been much better on fiscal issues than his brother, that’s for sure.
juumanistra

Like a two-term governor of Florida with a sterling record on fiscal issues and education reform, who’s well-spoken and generally considered one of the best conservative governors of the past generation.

Oh, wait, that’s Jeb Bush. Sorry, Mr. Bush! Your surname prohibits you from being considered, even though you’ve got almost everything restless conservatives seem to be pining for. Can’t very well be meritocratic when you’ve got a name that belongs to a major political clan: We’ve got a meritocracy to protect, after all!
yoni2511

Its telling that our top 2 choices for president are just as much if not more liberal then Barack Obama. As much as we despise the president and everything he is doing to destroy this country, we are handing him four more years on a silver platter. Either we nominate Romney and lose because he makes even John Kerry look principled or we nominate Gingrich and lose even more states then we did under McCain. We have a clear conservative right in front of us in huntsman, who as governor implemented plenty of conservative legislation, was number one in job creation throughout his tenure, is popular among every segment of the electorate, he has 50+ percent approval among republicans and democrats in his state but because he’s not bombastic enough we overlook him. When will our party actually nominate someone who is capable? Anyone who thinks Gingrich or Romney will get it done in November mine as well vote for Obama.
red_oakster

The Iowa group of conservatives who are struggling with three unappealing choices (Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum; and Perry might well be a wasted effort given his self-immolation).

That group could promote a write in and write in Ryan. He’s from a neighboring state and he’s a solid conservative. If the write-in campaign did well, we’d be a lot closer to a brokered convention.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

Life’s not fair, get used to it.
AceInTX

I’m not happy with where we are after the 2010 elections…and have fallen selint because if it…

I’d give anything for a better batch to choose from….but if you are hoping for a brokered convention, you might as well vote for Romney now and get it over with. The establishment control’s the Convention process and the establishment would decide who came out of the convention as out nominee….and the eastablishemnt has been in the Romney camp since CPAC 2008…it’s that simple.
conservativeparrothead

Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan in this thing, any of them would of been my first choice and I cant believe that NONE of those three ran, actually I can looking at each of their individual circumstances, but just the fact we didnt get 1 of the 3, was somewhat disappointing.

That said, I kind of feel like this thing is a process, and if you want to run for President, then you have to go through the process, you have to do the Iowa thing in December and January, you have to make the “rounds” and go through the process like everyone else.
conservativeparrothead

Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan in this thing, any of them would of been my first choice and I cant believe that NONE of those three ran, actually I can looking at each of their individual circumstances, but just the fact we didnt get 1 of the 3, was somewhat disappointing.

That said, I kind of feel like this thing is a process, and if you want to run for President, then you have to go through the process, you have to do the Iowa thing in December and January, you have to make the “rounds” and go through the process like everyone else.
red_oakster

A successful candidate would need to win support of lots of delegates. The establishment would have to nominate someone acceptable to the Tea Party. I can see only a few of those.

Rubio
Ryan
Jeb Bush
Jindal
Walker

I’d take my chances on a convention that followed a tea-infused primary season.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

…
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

TEA party folk *are* backing Gingrich.

And they don’t care whether the Internet-appointed pundits like it nor not.
juumanistra

To what degree that was motivated by anticipated backlash due to his family and the events of their twelve years in the Oval Office, I cannot say. But Jeb made his bed and he can sleep in it. I just hope he finds it comfortable.

But that doesn’t “Because he’s a Bush!” any less of a stupid argument amongst the rank-and-file. If we, and the rest of the party for that matter, cannot see past who a politician’s father and brother are — especially when they’ve got a track record like Jeb Bush’s — then there’s little hope for us.
Whacker77

I do NOT expect a dark horse to enter the race, but I think Moore’s piece is right. A big name could run in selective states and do very, very well. After all, the process is proportional early and that can help a darkhorse, That person can use the time to organize and be ready for the winner take all portion.

For instance, say Jeb or Rubio used Florida as a spring board. Isn’t it conceivable they could win in a write-in effort? Lisa Murkowski did. I think it could happen because we’re all looking for a real, credible choice and those two have the home field in Florida. The buzz if either announced would drown out the other candidates.

I’m all in for Jeb and I think he could pull off a write-in, draft movement win. He’s already received national scrutiny when Democrats tried to knock him out in 2002. More importantly, he is one of the really smart conservatives who has actual results. No one would confuse him with his brother either.

Like I said, I do NOT expect a darkhorse, but I’m all for Jeb, Rubio, Christie, or Daniels making a run at it. There’s no rule stating a candidate must have run in the Iowa and NewHampshire primaries so why limit ourselves if the field is so compromised. If Newt’s the nominee and heads into the convention far behind, should we really have to eat a crap sandwhich and risk losing the House?

If anyone one of the names I mentioned jumped into the race, that person would shoot to the top with very high support. I think we hit a tipping point with the Trump circus and people are now beginning to worry about the clownish reality show the primary has become.
wonkish1

Is coming from.

Newt dominates with Tea Party voters and completely trounces even Perry and Bachmann on that front. And I’m not talking in total voters here, I’m talking the percentage of his support which is a standardized metric over all candidates.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

–.no.text.–
Whacker77

Can you really say Jeb is unvetted? He took heavy fire from the Democrats leading up to the 2002 elections. They wanted his scalp ont he wall and they couldn’t bring him down. He’d be a sensational nominee who could bring along many, many Senate seats.

Won’t happen, but I can dream right?
yoni2511

When we lose next November, and lose badly, I’ll be sure to remember your silly comment. Our group of “candidates” are becoming more circus like as each day passes, with too many clowns and no lions. Donald trump? Seriously? Hasn’t he been embarrassed enough? Newt? Seriously??? If we nominate newt or romney how can you look at yourself in the mirror and call your self conservative? That was rhetorical because you wouldn’t be able to.
Whacker77

You say it’s time to get serious, but how is choosing Newt getting serious?
Change Jar Conservative

is to support Perry.

Not saying it’s a good idea, but if you want to get there, you need to make this a long term 3-man race.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Today he claimed he needs ‘more evidence’ to come to an opinion on global warming.

That proves he’s a grade A ignoramus at best, and a dangerous mole for the radical Green left at worst.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Keep spouting your detached-from-reality line that former Obama official Jon Huntsman is the True Conservative.
Whacker77

Which last name will be more unpopular in 2012, Obama or Bush?
Whacker77

I don’t think anyone’s making the case Huntsman’s a true conservative, but his economic proposals are the most conservative of those in the race. I feel he’s a better choice than Gingrich because I don’t want to relive the 90′s and listen to grandiose hot air from Newt Inc.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

The green left could offer to sell him the Brooklyn Bridge, and he’d declare he’s open to persuading on the point.
kharve3

you know, the governor of Virginia?????
acat

There have been repeated claims that Huntsman’s record in Utah is very conservative made here on Red State.

Google for yourself.

Mew
morstar150

It seems so easy for people who call themselves Republicans or Conservatives to bash the candidates on our side. We will find the right candidate but anything we have is better than what the lefties have.
acat

Seriously, Whacker?

The average Joe Sixpack still gets his voting insights from the MSM…

Mew
acat

but .. has he expressed any desire to jump in?

From what I’ve heard, he’s not a bad sort of GOPer, but .. he doesn’t seem to have expressed an interest thus far.

Mew
yoni2511

Look at his record in Utah. I know that Huntsman is too bright, presents too many thoughtful, logical positions on the real issues, his message is too clear and he stays on point…therefore he is NOT ELECTABLE!!! ?He has no sordid past, was never kicked out of Congress, never took pictures of his junk etc., so how as a party could we vote for him? Isn’t it your job at redstate to promote conservative candidates and do everything in your power to make Obama a one term president? In reality your hiding behind your position and promoting two candidates who wouldn’t know what a conservative position was if it hit them in the face. Really, huntsman saying he needs to hear the facts from scientists is a disqualifer in our party? Our tent is shrinking by the day.
juumanistra

If the American electorate is foolish enough that they’d buy the President of the United States screaming at the top of his lungs, “LOOK! LOOK! IT’S CHIMPY MCBUSHITLER v2.0! VOTE FOR ME UNLESS YOU WANT TO RETURN TO THE HORRORS OF CHIMPY MCBUSHITLER’S AMERIKKKA!”, then there is nothing to be done for — or with — this country.

But all of this is rapidly spiraling into bitter back-and-forth, and I know I’m well outside of the conventional wisdom on such matters. I will just reiterate my initial point and leave it rest: It seems counterintuitive to, in the name of meritocratic republicanism, declare that the children and siblings of political scions are persona non grata regardless of their achievements
nativetexan41

Real name is John Ellis Bush. I don’t really want another Bush. Don’ t the boring Gov. Daniels either.
I am praying for Perry to come up in the polls.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Up to you.
wonkish1

He actually had a pretty conservative governance of Utah and then decided to run as a centrist against Romney in New Hampshire.

Why would anybody want to make themselves out to be one of the more liberal candidates on the stage when you have a conservative track record and are relatively unknown. Someone without that much political talent. So he did himself in.
yoni2511

He served four presidents; Reagan, George hw, George w and then Obama so you make yourself look childish when you use his service to this country as a disqualifier.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

…they elected Obama.
donald_24

Independents are not going to vote for another Bush. And as far as Rubio and Christie, yes, they are unvetted. Christie worked as a lobbyist back in the 90s and nobody has really done a thorough investigation into that.
red_oakster

Those tea party delegates eventually will need to choose someone else. I’m not saying there will be a brokered convention, just that it’s much more of a possibility than Erick and Neil believe.
trevorb

is not an election that we can afford to lose. I’ve watched the last three years and have been nothing short of horrified.

My feelings on each of the candidates are mixed but I think the ones who have a chance right now are Gingrich, Romney, and Perry. I have my problems with each of them, particularly Romney, but anyone would be preferable to who we currently have in office. I admit, I’m pretty young but this is an America I never imagined I would ever see.
tomatin

is de facto rooting to lose the general.
acat

I know you’ve been hoping for one for some time.

The problem is, we haven’t, despite Cold Warrior’s best efforts, replaced enough GOP apparatchiks with Conservatives yet .. so what will happen isn’t Newt at 50%+1, it’s more like 2 or 3 rounds of balloting and a compromise slate… likely Waffles Romney with a “conservative” also-ran as veep. Waffles/Bachmann or Waffles/Huntsman, for example.

The old saying about law and sausage applies to brokered conventions, eh?

Mew
Whacker77

With a bad economy next year, which last name is going to be more unpopular, Bush or Obama.
juumanistra

Given that I’ve spent five years saying there’s no way the American electorate is foolish enough to actually believe the Democrats’ prattle on transparency and fiscal discipline when it was clear they were lying through their teeth, and thee years arguing that there’s no way they’d elect the personable empty suit that is Barack Obama, it’s safe to say that my track record has not been particularly good on discerning the capacities of the American electorate.
wonkish1

Where the parties never want to be seen ignoring the will of the people before an election that the convention would pick anybody, but the leader in the delegate count at that point is kidding themselves.
red_oakster

Romney’s delegates probably would be the quickest to aabandon him. The pledge rules are extremely lax and don’t last past the first ballot in any event. Someone who failed to close the deal during the primaries will get weaker not stronger as the convention approaches. This process is much more anarchical than you think. The pressure to find someone acceptable to both Tea Party and establishment will be intense. That’s why a Jindal or Ryan or Rubio might fare very well.

Also, there are Romney supporters who might trade a bloc of delegates they delivered to Romney during the primaries for their own selection as veep (Christie?).
donald_24

The convention delegates should choose whomever wins the majority of the delegates. By picking someone who did not even run, you will alienate a ton of voters and they will stay home on election day. The Dems had a messy convention in 1980 with Carter and Kennedy, and who won the general?
red_oakster

nt
donald_24

Polls have consistently shown that voters blame Bush for the bad economy. Yes, the economy stinks and Obama’s policies have failed, but voters do remember that the recession started in December 2007, not January 20, 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/news/economy/economy_poll/index.htm
littlehouse18

gone through the process like everyone else if they actually wanted to run for President.
donald_24

The fact is that if you run someone who has not been vetted like Ryan or Christie, then you are effectively outsourcing the important job of vetting to the DNC. Oh, and trust me, there is tons of dirt to dig up on Christie. The guy was a Wall Street and for profit college lobbyist. And then there are his shady deferred proseuction agreements that he forced companies into when he was US Attorney.
Scope

but he made it clear that he would be “honored” to be chosen as a VP running mate. I believe that he is not going to be endorsing any of the presidential candidates, but has in fact campaigned with Romney.

Until our recent VA elections, the R’s controlled the House but not the Senate. Now the R’s have control of both houses. It is a time when the R’s can do great things here in VA, but we shall see if the Gov. has the will to push for conservative legislation on many issues. So far the Atty. Gen. has been the one pushing for, and accomplishing some great things. He gave permission to the VA police to ask for citizenship documentation, even with traffic stops. To bad ICE won’t deport anyone, even felons. I’m sure you read about the nun that was killed, and two others injured in a traffic accident, involving a drunk illegal who was put back on the street after jail time for a DUI because there were no ICE agents to pick him up and deport him. Cuccinelli also made it necessary for VA abortion clinics to be classified and monitored the same as hospitals, which closed many of them down. They couldn’t afford the additional costs for the increased regulations. It wasn’t McDonnell who accomplished those items.

McDonnell is way way better than Kaine was as Gov., as is usually the case between D and R Govs. Just as the Texans say Gov. Perry has his warts, so to does McDonnell. A few that really bothered me was that it was reported that VA ended the year last year with a budget surplus. That was accomplished by not paying into the annual state government worker pension and medical insurance plans. Then the Gov. approved a 3% Christmas bonus for all state government workers. The Gov., by EO, required that all state vehicles switch over to renewable fuels, and in a short amount of time. He made the comment at the time that he would love to see solar powered vehicles driving down the roadways.

Atty. Gen. Cuccinelli would by far be a more reliably conservative presidential candidate. He actually has a libertarian streak to him, and he is a 10th amendment lover. He knows that he needs to do the steps in order to gain the necessary experience. He is running for VA Gov. in 2013, and will be running against the current Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. Bolling has few accomplishments to point to against Cuccinelli’s list of accomplishments. Gov. McDonnell immediately on hearing that Cooch was going to run ran out and endorsed Bolling, not sure why.

You often hear the expression “the up and coming Republicans” or the “Young Guns” which in some cases have been everything but. Cooch is the real deal, and will be in the top in national politics as soon as the time is right. I promise Atty Gen. Ciccinelli is the one most responsible for getting good stuff done here in VA. I believe that a majority of conservatives in VA would agree with me.
perry4prez

But I am not a “prissy conservative” because I refuse to vote for Willard Romney.
JSobieski

If this was 17th century Japan, there would be mass suicides.
JSobieski

Cuccinelli would attract a lot of people in the GOP tent.
valrobex

why Conventions have slid into history. They served a valid purpose when slow transportation and slow news dissemination was the norm. Back then, voters had much less voice in choosing their candidates than now which is why ?back room deals? and brokered outcomes have (hopefully) diminished.

One of the hits I?ve heard against Romney is that he cut a deal in 2008 to avoid a prolonged bloody primary with McCain and in return would receive the backing of the Republican establishment next time around. Don?t know if it?s true, but I tend to think it is. That thought sullies his candidacy in my mind and in the minds of some I?ve talked with.

We now have electronic media from the land line telephone to satellite internet, and everything in between. Because of this, we know virtually EVERYTHING about a candidate whether it?s true or not. Consequently, we conclude we have a weak field.

I don?t trust the party wonks to provide us a good candidate. They are subjected to deals and bribery of high order. While both Dole & McCain went through the primary method they were also the selection of the Republican party hacks. They were honorable candidates but they ain?t Conservative.

I want a died in the wool ?gun totin? ? Conservative of the first magnitude and this primary ?vetting? is just the thing to get us there. (?cause the back room guys aren?t interested in Conservatism. They?re interested in what?s good for them and their cronies…)
votemout2012

This race is far from being a 2 man race. Look how quickly things have changed over the last 3 week. The candidates are being vetted and we are seeing their weaknesses. Perry is sounding better everyday and really out there getting his message of limited government and DC reform. Why not get behind the candidate who has a record of success and try not to have the MSM influence our vote. Please look at the candidates records. Perry had a rocky start but is a 3 term governor.He would have not won 3 times if he didn’t now how to run a campaign. There is still time for him to iron out his flaws and come through if the media would just let him and we give him a break. There is no perfect candidate but Perry pretty close.
acat

January, 2007, not December.

Things started to go bad when the Dems won Congress in 2006.

Mew
avagreen

the Congress that was in power at time some action took place, giving the blame/accolades to the President alone.
ammy

For stating what apparently isn’t obvious to many. Question – do you want to beat Obama – because if you do – you’ll stop all the posing and prosing and get to work for the best candidate to beat Obama. Romney.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

….
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

…..
the_invisible_hand

The only reason we get a brokered convention is that none of the candidates running are acceptable.
center77

comes from one I did not expect. its not good enough, but I still think it can be done. I think the conservatives in the Party are smarter than rallying around Newt, I at least hope so. The beck interview should be telling to the majority of voters.
acat

And both the GOP and the Democrat party have the ability to replace a popular (but flawed) majority candidate with one of their own.

Simple majority rule is not always the best approach… especially in a system with open primaries.

Mew
acat

Yeah, that seems like a #Winning strategy…

Mew
johndouglas

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/perry-poll-gingrich-romney/2011/12/06/id/420168

This shows that Perry’s positives have risen in Iowa and that Newts numbers are soft. 75% of those for Newt say they could change their mind.
“But the internal polling data shows that Perry?s ?strongly positive? rating has jumped 6 points since the firm?s last Iowa survey, conducted just three weeks ago.

And, significantly, Perry?s positive rating among likely Iowa caucus-goers is at commanding 67 percent. And a stellar 71 percent view him positively after having viewed one of his commercials.

Other numbers that suggest a potential rise: Perry stands at 78 percent positive among self-identified Tea Party members, according to the survey. “
johndouglas

Which poll are you referring to?

Thanks.
pj2012

thanks for posting the link and info ; ) He’s showing positive movement in several Iowa polls out today. 11% – 12 %.
pj2012

That’s why… “Perry buys $1 million TV time over 3 weeks in Iowa”

“Rick Perry is going all-in in Iowa in advance of the caucuses, plunking down $1 million in broadcast TV ad time for three weeks leading up to the caucuses, a source confirmed.

A heavy buy in Iowa for a week’s TV time can be bought for less than half that sum, meaning Perry will be reaching a zone-flooding level in a final bid to boost his poll numbers.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69932.html
avagreen

Ah think ah’ll give another hunderd or two to him.
pj2012

; )
pttx333

From what I’m seeing, it would seem that true Perry supporters are sticking like glue to him, while many others jump from a “new face” to the next “new face.” In my mind, it seems to mean that we Perry supporters are in for the long haul and do not waver. To me, that means that he has a very solid base that could very well grow to a winning number as the other candidates fall by the wayside, which I believe they will.

Please correct me if you think I’m too biased.
rickperryreport

A brokered convention is a terrible idea. There are two reasons. The first is that the so-called Tea Party is already so anxious, wary, worried, paranoid, and hostile to “The Establishment” controlling the Republican Party, If you broker a convention, “The Establishment” decides over the voice of the people in the voting process.

Do that and you kill the party for at least a couple of decades. Second, the candidates in the race now HAVE EARNED IT. All of ‘em. They have worked extremely hard and have run through a very formidable gauntlet of media scrutiny and debate prep.

I am clearly in the Perry camp. But I can support any of them that are left. I did have problems with Cain, but the fact that Cain is no longer in the race is a testimony to the integrity of the nomination-via-primary and -caucus process.

To be sure, I have worked so hard for Perry, and I feel a little insulted by this silly idea. Are those of us engaged in this process not good enough for Erick Erickson? Go home and get some sleep, Erick. This is a terrible post. I think I was insulted.

Joe @ The Rick Perry Report
avagreen

…….think it held the Alamo together.
avagreen

I’m covered up in it.

Ahhhhhhh……..
pj2012

I’ve supported Perry from the beginning… I’ve never wavered. I did my own research on him early on and I think the people that keep moving from one candidate to the other don’t research their candidates and/or they listen to the media hype. I didn’t fall prey to any negative meme about Perry because I knew it wasn’t true.
pttx333

hard-headedness (is that a word?), but in that case, okay then, I confess – I’m just hard-headed and plan to remain that way. Too damned old to change now! Besides, I know when I’m right.

Good one, ava, REMEMBER THE ALAMO! And I live very near the San Jacinto Monument so have almost-daily reminders of our heritage. Yep, we will prevail in the final analysis. And, if need be, I’ll gain a bunch of weight so I can be the fat lady who sings! How’s that sound?
avagreen

It’s kinduv hard to beat the facts……

Too bad that more folks haven’t done what you did, pj2012. We’d all be the better for it.

Hat off to you.
pttx333

what will keep our guy going. There has been no planned strategy or anything of the sort, just plain, ordinary folks who are totally in the tank for our guy for all of the right reasons.

I stumbled onto RS quite by accident while surfing the net a few months ago and what a blessing it has been for me. I have always been a political junkie (even when I was a young woman just voting the first time at 21, the legal age at that time) but have always scratched around on my own to learn. RS allows those of us who are like-minded to share ideas, bounce thoughts and knowledge off one another … how refreshing it is!

We’ll do it, pj2012, because we must. Thanks for standing tall and strong!
avagreen

We can both sing….right on the path leading to the Alamo.

Maybe even yodel.
pttx333

that lost art before inauguration! Don’t know if I could, though, since, after 4 years of studying Spanish, I never could roll the r’s successfully! Has to be some sort of terminal linguistics flaw with my tongue that probably flows on down to my vocal wickerdoodles … so you can yodel and I’ll hum. That okay?
perry4prez

NT
pj2012

It just isn’t in me to be that way. Character matters… and I think Perry has the qualities to be a great president…

and now I must say good night… pttx333, and avagreen… It’s 2:05 AM here… yawn…
Carol Tarasewicz

I wasn’t happy with the republicans running and/or saying they might run and change their minds becuase of the wife, like Daniels, he did nothing for me. I wanted Rick Perry to run and I haven’t changed my candidate once since he announced.
The problem is that expectations were sky high for him and no human could keep those poll numbers that high, unless you have the media covering up for you, like today in KS when Obama said he was happy to be in TX again, etc. Rick came out with skyhigh polling and it came down to earth, it’s happened to everyone this year, except Romney.
I got two emails today from Team Perry, one was the IA internal polling. We must stick to Rick! We do not want to be called flip floppers. Rick has never lost an election. He wouldn’t run if he wasn’t confident he could win. Romney has webiste to attack Rick, Career Politician, he has only launched attacks at Rick from that website,
The candidates should be attacking Obama, we don’t care what the RNC said today on their “secret call” not to attack Obama. I know of no one that likes him,
pj2012

flighty not fighty…. lol… big difference… I’m tired, time for sleep…
pj2012

That’s weird, the RNC said that? Hmmmm.
sowa1

spent like there was no tomorrow. President Bush could not veto because the Democrats had the super majority and he also needed war funding bills passed even tho they were filled with juge spending bills. Republicans , Evangelica (sp) Christians etc. better stop judging Romney on hi Religion. Stop the Bias. I believe Romney is more organized than Newt and has run a business and State Where as Newt has not. I would vote for either, but whoever the Republican Candidate is we all have to come together and vote for him. Other wise we get Obama and he will finish destroying this Country. Wake up all of you
Marcus_Traianus

But thanks for the haughty critique. What’s that line we are constantly reminded of? Oh yeah, “one-half of one-third of the government”.

We control the House because Democrats destroyed America’s trust in them with their partisan antics, not the least of which was ObamaCare. People wanted an alternative. That’s all we were in 2008 and the Party has been given a chance to prove it is better than Democrats.

It is also about seeing what principles and policies we stand on. Think that’s happened for the voting population? Has the Party made a good case as to why they are a better alternative? I would love to see the case for that.

The only reason we are still standing is Obama is terrible and ditto Reid. That will only last for so long. Summarily, we have survived thus far because the opposition is clueless. Not because of any accomplishment. The greater population does not trust us. We are the lesser of two evils. You should know that based on polls which essentially say “Congress sucks” and Republicans? Well, they don’t suck as bad. But they still suck.

We are laced with feckless “leadership”, if one can call it that, such as Boehner and his liege of clown-car Republicans. It’s become the House of excuses as to why they can’t accomplish anything. They throw other peoples ideas (e.g. Ryan) out there like fish for the masses. Not that they believe in it, but the kooks need to be fed.

These are the same people who I would call the Establishment, that are now looking to support a Blue State governor for President. For the “children”. Sure, that will change things. Right.

So “further relegate to the dust heap of history” is pretty accurate thus far. We may win the next election but the Party better hope that Democrats don’t have a sudden epiphany and change tactics, back to the chameleon strategy. Because if we win the next election and blow it, which is one of the few things Boehner and McConnell are capable of. It’s over for at least a generation.
red_oakster

And some of those nominees won. The current system is based on changes that McGovern and Donald Fraser made to Democratic Party rules after 1968. Most of the time it produces a consensus nominee during the primaries. But the primaries won’t work where there isn’t a consensus-and especially when the Republicans have added more proportional representation to the mix. I’m just not that enthralled with a system that has produced Bush 41, Dole, and McCain. In contrast, I think a convention with a lot of tea partiers as delegates has a reasonable shot of forcing the establishment to accept a conservative as a nominee.

But if Perry can turn everything around and become the nominee, I’ll be as happy as can be.

I still think Newt or Romney could win a majority outright, but it’s a lot harder this year.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

You crack me up with your pretensions at serious participation.
tailfins1959

Having volunteered in past campaigns, people like John Birchers were some of the hardest working people to defeat socialists. “Candibots” I suspect have the same character.
tailfins1959

…. during a coin toss. It’s a funny outcome to contemplate, but seriously planning for a brokered convention is silly. When hearing the term “compromise candidate”, I think of Winston Churchill. In spite of being a British hero, he was politically very weak.
acat

that was abandoned because it *disadvantaged* our candidate to the Dem candidate?

I don’t think that’s what you’re really proposing, but .. it sure sounds like it.

Mew
red_oakster

McGovern-Fraser got implemented by state legislative changes. Most of the states were controlled by the Democrats. It happened by accident. And remember the GOP was a lott less conservative than it is today. It just didn’t seem important.

Now, the GOP added their own spices to the recipe. One of the most important was allowing winner take all contests. That was the factor which has allowed Republican winners in early contests to wrap up the nomination quickly. Reagan, Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43, and McCain all used early wins to wrap things up quickly. In contrast, Ford and Reagan duked it out all the way to the convention in 1976. But because it was a 2-man race, one guy got slightly more than half the delegates during the primaries.

For whatever reason (and who knows why), for 2012, the GOP cut back a lot on winner take all. That makes consolidation more difficult. If you default to a two man race, the odds still say that someone wins during the primaries. However, if you get three or more candidates who stay in for awhile and there’s much less winner take all, the odds of no one getting 50% during the primaries go way up. Ron Paul gets a slice of delegates under the new rules. And let’s suppose Perry manages to stay in at least through Super Tuesday.

The whole system has been governed by the law of unintended consequences for a very long time.
acat

Wonder if the same thing applies to President Bush?

Mew
ericksontales

A Brokered Convention? In your wildest dreams. When are you going to embrace the fact that Romney is going to be the Republican’s party nominee? Who else can win? As soon as voters are reminding of the slimeball that Newt Gingrich really is from the 90′s he will have a hard time getting the party’s nomination. Newt is the ULTIMATE Washington insider.

I realize that you don’t like some of Romney’s previous positions and perhaps a few current positions. He is the only candidate that has a chance to topple the Obama campaign machine. No candidate perhaps in the history of this country has been vetted more than Mitt Romney. With the 24 hour news cycle and modern day social media we know more about these candidates than ANY previous presidential candidates. You are looking at the Romney issue all wrong. Romney is the only candidate that has had to fight Axelrod and his cronies and he’s done it for years and they still haven’t been able to sink him. As soon as any of the other candidates get put under the Obama Campaign Machine they are going to crumble.

As a staunch conservative I feel there is only one choice to get this country turned back around. We need to elect Romney.

Romney 2012!
acat

because both parties’ apparatchiks realized that, if they’re in a “safe” state with an open primary, they can influence the opposition …?

Proportional reduces the effectiveness of an Operation Chaos strategy without increasing the volume of calls for a closed primary.

Mew
aesthete

GWB Windows ME?
acat

Cheney’s Windows ME – looks great but has this fatal flaw …

(Cheshire grin)
red_oakster

you’re 100% right to point out the paradox. Proportional representation, reduces the chance for outside mischief, but it increases the potential inconclusive results during the primary season. And too closed a system also can shut out folks like the Reagan Democrats, whom a conservative needs in his or her coalition.
acat

primarily the party insiders, or “Establishment GOP” for our case.

A well-motivated conservative group can dominate a closed primary and swamp the Establishment candidates. (Utah’s Mike Lee and Kentucky’s Rand Paul are beneficiaries of this)

The ones who lose the most aren’t the voters (even in the case of O’Donnell) but rather the D.C. insiders who were counting on electing Trey Grayson or the return of Bob Bennett.

Thus, this cat sees the increase in proportionality as an attempt to decrease the demands for closed primaries, with the justification that it puts down “Operation Chaos” problems….

Mew
snowshooze

I now have more interest having supported Perry.
I would think a brokered convention might only take place after the Primary has run it’s full duration.
Right now, I am trying to weigh the odds of it actually happening.
Any thoughts?

RS

EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Getting to a Brokered Convention

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