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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Will Iowa Be the GOP’s Version of Gephardt vs. Dean?

Mitt Romney has to win New Hampshire. His own campaign has set those expectations. If he does not win New Hampshire it is game over for Mitt.

Unfortunately for Mitt Romney, expectations have been set so high for him in New Hampshire, a win might not be enough if the win is close. And right now Newt Gingrich is surging in New Hampshire. He has gone up dramatically now within 14 points of Romney. Likewise, Huntsman is going up too. Both are cutting into the numbers of other candidates, including MItt Romney.

If Newt Gingrich does as polls are suggesting in Iowa — a big win — he will have big momentum going into New Hampshire, but not just New Hampshire, South Carolina too. Winning two out of the first three races and then going to Florida where Newt is also ahead will pretty much destroy the inevitability argument Romney has had.

In other words, Romney needs to stop Gingrich in Iowa. But about the only way to do that with one month to go is to unleash hell on Gingrich. That brings us to Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean.

In 2004, Dean was surging and Gephardt had Iowa as a must win state. They went nuclear on each other, wiping each other out in Iowa. It opened the door to John Kerry’s campaign, which everyone had written off for dead and also John Edwards. It was a game changer that could happen again.

The real irony here for Romney is that throughout the campaign season, all the candidates have been fighting each other while Romney has stayed safely above the fray letting the others either implode or slay each other. Now he is in the position of having to get his hands dirty against Gingrich while all the other candidates can just sit back and fight for the crumbs.

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COMMENTS

  • don12345

    It is an easy choice when it comes down to Newt and Mitt. You could either vote for the guy that thinks he’s God’s greatest gift to mankind or you could vote for Mitt who thinks Christ is.

    And besides..Newt doesn’t have baggage; he’s got a landfill full of it.

  • circlegranch

    thus far this early a.m., is God Bless EE. I don’t quite know what I’d do were it not for the opportunity to share, shout, and skirmish here at RS during this most complex primary season. Erick, I’m sending you and your family the wish for God’s richest blessings this Christmas season and for strength, discernment and clarity of voice for you in the coming year. Rest up, eat and embibe well because we need you ready to rock and roll come the first of the year! Merry Christmas, one and all.

  • wonkish1

    At least unless Romney is capable of getting under Newt’s skin and breaks Newt’s discipline. So again we’ll see right here if Newt has substantially more discipline than he had in the 90s.

    Newt might drop a few veiled swipes at Romney, but I doubt he will do much else. From my understanding Newt has something prepared akin to Reagan’s “There you go again” to swat back any attacks and make the one giving them(in this case Romney) look petty and desperate in doing so.

    Guess we’ll see a real life test of Newt’s theory that avoiding attacking your opponents is the better electoral strategy. If he holds up through them then Newt will be vindicated. If he falls and falls fast then I guess the theory will be proven false. Should be interesting.

  • don12345

    Newt will be bought for a little pocket change. If Gingrich doesn’t implode in 7 days, and gets elected, all the left has to do is provide Gingrich will a little pocket change and Newt will do the left’s bidding. He will be Obama 2.0 because he has a history of doing it for money.

  • steveinfl

    You can go on all you want about Newt, but I don’t remember him not able to figure out what side of the abortion issue to be on. Question to Romneycare lovers: why does Mitt want to raise capital gains taxes on those making over 250,000? Spreading the wealth?

  • redpenny

    allowing the elite Repubs,the Rinos and the press pick to our candidate.Mitt and The Newt—I could live with either considering what’s currently infesting the residence at 1600 Pa. Ave. but we continue to overlook the most conservative and the most steady of all—-that being Congresswoman “B”.The country is ready for a woman POTUS——all else has failed;why not give her a shot.I hope she does well in Iowa & NH.and I look forward to voting for her here in S.C.

  • teme

    McCain-Feingold was done in 2002, and it became effective law in January 2003. Now because of Citizens United, the candidate themselves can try to keep their hand somewhat cleaner of mud throwing and leave some of it to Super PACs. As I see it there is still possible opening for many people in Iowa

    Possibilities:
    Newt Gingrich
    Mitt Romney
    Ron Paul
    Solid conservative: Perry or Bachmann.

    Paul, Perry, Bachmann and their super PACs have all a reason to go after Newt Gingrich, to get part of their non-Romney pie.

  • nathanalbright

    …..and that Newt seems vulnerable to respond in a ferocious and testy manner. In short, both of them appear to be vulnerable to flip-flipping charges and have enough baggage to make this a great season of negativity. Mittens has a ton of money and is now behind and losing his inevitibility argument–this is a situation that calls for him to make a call to Nancy Pelosi and start digging up as much dirt on Newt as possible. And for the rest of us to stand and watch.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Hope springs eternal even before the sun is up. God bless Erick and Merry Christmas. Hope everyone’s ready to rumble after Christmas vacation.

  • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

    What a cute (but ignorant) way of putting the choice. I’m not enthralled with either of them but if it came down to it, I would be far happier with Newt Gingrich as our nominee than Romney. There is just something skeevy and slimy about Romney that just repulses me.

  • pineygirl

    I want to see what the candidates will do to defeat Obama and how they would be better for America than the Democratic Party. Swiping at each other is nothing more than a distraction and ticks me off. We know they’re competing against each other; they need to focus on the true opposition, which is sitting in the White House.

    I am concerned about Newt’s baggage, but I’m more concerned about Romney’s flip-flopping and Obama-like policies.

    So far I’m not sold on any of the candidates. I like Bachmann’s conservatism, but I don’t think she’s electable. I did admire Cain’s fresh approach, but he wasn’t electable, either. I like Newt’s out-of-the-box thinking — which I believe America desperately needs if we’re going to overcome our economic, cultural and political slump. And I sure would love to see him debate with Obama!

  • papabear

    You’ve made that EXACT SAME POST in multiple threads!

  • papabear

    Until you have facts to argue with.

    You are an ignominious little troll.

  • wonkish1

    nt

  • fightinmad

    As I read today’s comments I get a sick feeling that we on the right have a unique way of killing our own. Just read the comments before mine. Other than the Merry Christmases I see a lot of antagonism that will go a long way against us. We need to think before we write. One says that Bachmann cannot win. That is absurd. Any one of our team can and will win if we don’t divide ourselves and split our vote. Newt is correct, we need to fight Obama not our Republican candidates. You who spew your hate will not help us win in the end. I think we should stay calm and work hard for our choice without mocking the others on the stage. When we as a party have made the selection then we need to fight hard and win. You would have to be out of your mind as an American to vote for Obama. I do not believe true “FREEDOM LOVING” Americans will. This is our last chance to save our Nation. We had best watch what we say, and do what we need to to make sure our side wins. It also is important that we choose someone who is truly Conservative in all aspects of their thinking. I also believe they must have a profound love for God, Duty to do Right, and for America as our Forefathers intended for Her to be.

    MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone and a very successful, blessed and therefore HAPPY NEW YEAR!

  • annie54

    both God and Christ. He believes that Christ gave the Book of Mormon to Joseph Smith. Then Joe dies and is still dead. Christ is still alive. However, you’re right that Gingrich believes that he’s God’s gift to mankind. But further, Mitt believes that he WILL be a god someday on his own planet.

    Ironically, the evangelicals in Iowa shouldn’t be attracted to either one if they are true evangelicals, but so far, there’s not too much to indicate that they are, infact, true evangelicals.

  • romeg

    I doubt the lessons of Gephard/Dean/Kerry are lost on Newt.

    He is somewhat ego maniacal but I don’t think he’s a complete fool. Thus far he’s withheld the vitriol for Obama, Biden, Pelosi and other Democrats and telling all who will listen why HE should be their choice, not why someone else should not.

    I believe he can win Iowa AND New Hampshire with a positive Conservative message and focus on why HE’S the one to take on and defeat Obama because OBAMA MUST GO (OMG!).

    Newt’s foibles and failures have been public knowledge for a very long time. We need to push him, or whomever becomes the nominee, to hew to the conservative line and run and win on that basis.

    In a Newt/Romney match up I believe Newt has the upper hand, even without the strong business background that Mitt has. A business background is no assurance of a pro-business president. Just look at the Fortune 100 CEO’s that support the Comrade-in-Chief. Romney’s business background do not reassure me one whit.

  • lizabtha

    Willard Romeny thinks Christ is God’s greatest gift to mankind? He’s a Mormon, dude, not a Christian.

    Mormons believe that Jesus and Lucifer were brothers, for pete’s sake. And that they(Mormons) can become just like Jesus and his cool brother Lucifer by making lots of babies and wearing undies and making weird gestures in the Temple.

    Uh huh.

    And Newt’s got baggage?

    At least his is cut from reality’s cloth!

  • onenationundrgod

    Both cancel each other out. Are Newt and Mitt what we have been fighting for? I am discouraged about what is happening in this election….
    The Donald saying he may enter the race if the person he wants doesn’t win the nomination??? Really, who is he to throw this election? I am surprised Newsmax is playing into this circus.
    Our party and conservatism are being sold down the river…I can say I am FED UP with this political maneuvering, and it’s not to our advantage.
    Where is the DECERNMENT of the TP, These are not the candidates who represent our conservative beliefs, I sn?t this just about their future and not the best interest of this Country??..
    These candidates IMHO are just more of the same, make no mistake about it!
    I suppose this is where all the movers and shakers want us to be, disheartened and discouraged so we will just go with the flow and vote for one of these two mistakes!

  • wonkish1

    If there was a Bachmann RS index here at RedState we are seeing a huge spike it in today and I think it’s more ‘institutional’ posting if you catch my drift.

  • bzip

    I think Bachmann and her supporters must have gotten that booster shot that she is so afraid of.

  • supergirl2911

    But to an extent there needs to be a civil conversation. I don’t think it needs to include hits below the belt or name calling or lies ( Bachman want someone to pee onour heads and tell us the rain has come) but a heated debate is good for the candidates.

  • supergirl2911

    Newt can fight…etc. please look at his record and his words – not how he is saying it or his vocabulary- hold him accountable for the ideas and beliefs and actions he has done. He is not conservative and if he wins the nomination will not win against Obama.

  • okpensfan

    “or you could vote for Mitt who” is an empty sock puppet.

    Fixed.

  • wonkish1

    A Newt week(if not longer). But there have always been a small Newt following here.

    And an even larger group of people that although not sold on him don’t speak ill of him and occasionally defend him.

    But Bachmann has been off the map for a while and all of sudden in 2 days I count almost a dozen pro Bachmann posts in rapid succession. Leaves you scratching your head.

  • icesweeper

    Thou shall speak no ill of a fellow Republican.

    I believe Newt has that as one of his campaign strategies. I can’t recall him going negative on another candidate during this campaign, but I do have a job so I haven’t seen or heard everything.

  • dcacklam

    We need them to fight for the job like they want it!

    Why?

    Because a ‘soft’ primary season just leaves dirt & flaws undiscovered, ripe for exploitation by the Obama campaign…

    Gen Patton once said ‘A gallon of sweat in training saves a pint of blood in battle’ or something to that effect…

    The same applies here: The primaries are ‘training’ or ‘practice’ for the real thing, as much as they are a choice of who to run…

    So by all means, we NEED them to fight it out NOW, so that the strongest candidate can emerge to challenge Obama.

    Now, Newt may not support this, because he’s no doubt got some things he hopes will stay hidden…

    But it really is the best for all, in the end…

  • Scope

    Romney can’t break out of his low to mid twenties base of support. He cried becase Baier was too hard on him, even though he chose where he would sit on the hot seat. Newt’s base of support from what I’m reading is very soft, and many of those choosing him in the polls now can change their minds. Many, other than us political junkies, only know that he has been good in the debates, and that he was a former Speaker. That’s about to change quickly. He has been called a bull that carries his own china shop around with him, and we are about to see if he starts busting up the china.

    While many think Newt is peaking at the right time, it can also be viewed in an opposite manner. The dirt and stories and vetting that he will be getting at this time will be everywhere in the news, which means his peaking may be coming at the worst time.

    By the time Romney and Newt bloody each other up, with the help of the MSM, and even some on the right, there will be an opening for someone else that isn’t in the mud pit.

    I just heard this morning that the latest poll coming out of SC has Newt in first place at 38%, Romney is second with 21%, and in third place is Rick Perry with 9%. Seems that Cain’s supporters are going with Newt and Perry. We still have almost two months until the SC primary.

  • PubliusII

    Iowa is still about one month away, and between now and Iowa are the Christmas and New Years holidays. That is a lifetime in this primary season. Think of it this away, about one month ago Cain was just rising.

    I would advise Romney not to panic but stay steady and on message, and not go nuclear on anybody. Newt’s biggest problem is his own lack of discipline. Honestly, I doubt whether Newt can hold it together for a whole month. Let Newt destroy himself, as he has before.

    For the record, I don’t really like Romey either. I’m just commenting on tactics.

  • pineygirl

    It’s realistic thinking. I like Bachmann — a lot — but I just don’t think she has the substance YET to win against an Obama. I also think that America views her as too far to the right — just as they see Obama as too far to the left. America likes moderates. The middle of the road. Vanilla. Bland. That’s just the facts, and as someone in the marketing industry I’m constantly surprised at this.

    Vice President? I think Bachmann would be absolutely perfect, and she can run for the big seat next time.

    Newt, like him or not, has the gravitas, the knowledge, the experience, PLUS the creative thinking and ability to appear moderate that we need. That said, I’m still not ready to pull the lever for him, but in my opinion he is emerging as the only candidate who could clean Obama’s clock.

  • Scope

    Huntsman and Paul already said no. Perry, Romney and Bachmann have not committed yet. So the debate will be between Newt and Santorum. Wow, how exciting.

  • jgge

    is now the least qualified of all candidates after Cain withdrew. She is a congresswoman from a small district in Minnesotta that fits in few neighborhood in Houston.

  • znjs

    And your call for affirmative action – to give a woman a chance – isn’t something that I think is going to work around here. And that’s even before talking about the real problem with Bachmann – she’s truth challenged. And I’m not talking about the typical truth challenged that politicians usually are, that being them lying to us. I mean she can’t seem to tell the difference between fact and fiction.

  • jgge

    Our last chance to save our Nation? We have been through much worse than Obama and we have not only survived but we have prospered more than any nation in history of mankind. Obama is not worse than the Civil War, the Great Depression, two World Wars, etc… Fortunately Obama is so incompetent to apply his destructive socialist agenda. He could not even stop the Bush tax cut extension when his party had huge majorities in Congress. All this doom and gloom and talk about the end of America is extremely stupid.

  • annie54

    about the Newt and Romney myth, which is incorrect.

    Newt has one thing going for him and that is that he will debate Obama well. That’s hog wash! Anyone who believes that the media and the Dems will let that happen is crazy. Newt wants the Republican candidates to waste time right now debating HIM in “his form” of debate. Sure – take up their time debating the KING of DEBATERS!

    Perry is going to be traveling around on a bus doing retail politics. He will rise out of the ashes. I hope he doesn’t succumb to Newt’s plan to USE HIM UP in a Lincoln-Douglas Debate. Polling shows that the Iowans want to get to know Perry better. Okay then, Perry do your retailing!

    Our nominee will be Rick Perry. Just watch.

  • hls87

    Dean and Gepardt didn’t destroy each other in Iowa. Each destroyed himself. Neither was a serious candidate for President from the start. Dean was nobody from nowhere and more than a bit volatile. The electorate was willing to date him, but when it came to serious voting, it was looking for someone more established and substantial. Gephardt had never won a statewide election. His whole electoral career was in the House and that was disqualifying.

    That said, Erick is right to suggest that this year’s Iowa contest is quite likely to play out as a GOP version of the Dem contest in 2004. Gephardt and Dean both flamed out because they couldn’t get over the plausibility threshold. Cain has already suffered that fate. Gingrich will too. Like Dean he is too mercurial to be a plausible President. Like both Gephardt and Dean, he lacks a presidential resume. With or without a barrage of personal attacks from another candidate, he’s going down.

    Newt Gingrich is a contemptible human being and a preposterous presidentail candidate. An overwhelming majority of Iowa Republicans will caucus for someone else, whatever they may be telling pollsters today. Mitt would do well to reserve fire. The charges are set and the timer is ticking; Newt will blow up soon enough.

  • znjs

    Bachmann always fit Cain’s supporters better then Newt. For people who are only paying attention enough to go to the not-romney it shouldn’t be that surprising that they would list the latest greatest not-romney (Newt) in the national polls. For those who pay enough attention to also post here I’m betting a lot of them will go to her.

  • annie54

    of activity through the years with “hits below the belt” literally, from his faithful interns. Have you read some of their accounts and what Newt asked of them?

  • Common_Cents

    romney folded against Perry in the debate and with Bret Baier, a friendly interview.

    Romney is used to being above the fray and is not used to having to go on attack.

    Romney just hasn’t come across as genuine in attacking or defending in confrontation.

    It was similar w/ Pawlenty trying to act mad. He just came across as not genuine by being something he was not.

  • annie54

    over the Christmas Holiday; however, I will be checking in as regularly as I do at home (much to my daughter’s dismay no doubt, whom I’m visiting.)

    Are you going to keep feeding us during that time?

  • tngal

    I posted last sat after his announcement that there was a chatter among more than just a few remaining cain supporters about the bachmann campaign (and santorum). For some reason people thought everyone would drift to Newt, but those who liked Newt had already gone for the most part in between bialek and white. They were supporters but not believers, for lack of a better term. The other softies dropped immediately after white.

    Yesterday, Grubbs , Cain’s Iowa chair said that polling showed Bachmann would get a little pop. Although, Grubbs also said Paul would see a bit of a boost in IA as well. He was basing it on his internals I’m sure.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Maybe. A lot of the innovations from his campaign with regarding the acquisition of cash and supporters were new for 2004, and they’ve been since adopted by pretty much everybody. For that matter, Dean was able to (only temporarily, thank God) institute reforms at the DNC that materially contributed to our 2006 hammering.

    We may be using the same word to describe two different ways to look at the situation, though.

  • tyman

    so many don’t realize this point, which you put very succinctly!

  • gwbramhall

    Newt has two things going against him. One is the party (and country) is
    desparate to win back the WH and get a grownup back in control of the
    country. Second is the skeletons already known about him plus all the
    imagined inuendo that has already being conjured up by Pelosi and her
    type. It is unfair how this worked against Cain and I’ll guess it will also
    take down Newt. Romney should remain above the fray and continue
    to act as Presidential and competant as possible. Perhaps if he offers
    Newt the VP slot, it will work. I’d pay money to see a Gingrich/Biden
    debate!

  • monhar

    You dont like the idea of Perry being the nomineee — thats fine – everyone has opinions and aholes. I am a Perry fan and can see where he is the ideal candidate. He has voiced plans to create jobs, boost the economy, fix the tax mess, clean up DC, boost the energy in the US. What’s not to like?? Besides, he has morals. Newt has the morals of an alley cat. Mittens is god or is to be in his own mind.

  • streiff

    without venturing into the merits.

  • paladin1

    She is a kind woman with a wonderful heart for children but her political experience is woefully inadequate to prepare her for the Presidency. She needs at least a leadership position in the House or some other executive experience in order to manage and direct the Executive branch.

    We should not let the establishment Republicans or the media select our candidate but Rep. Bachmann is not the one; at least, not yet.

  • tyman

    I did feel sorry for her at a book signing in SC when a mother put her 8 year old son up to going to Bachmann and whispering something…all the while capturing it on video to post on the internet.

    The left just absolutely thinks that any Republican is nuts and they’ll do whatever they have to do to try and destroy them.

    After what she did to Perry regarding Gardasil, she revealed a side that is anything but nice and wholesome. So maybe I don’t feel so sorry for what happened. She tried to smear Perry the way the left does.

  • annie54

    we should give him his beloved “hits below the belt”. From what I hear, that’s what puts that “little boy smile on his face”. THAT came from a direct quote from a colleague of his several years ago, who came upon him sitting in his car and an intern’s head was “hitting below his belt”.

    Don’t think these quotes aren’t going to surface if he is our nominee!

    PERRY 2012 period

  • buster93

    This is the Republican version of a reality show. Where is my Republican party? Has any one seen it ? The first I saw it was when I saw it in 1980 when I shook Ronald Reagans hand at a campaign stop in Louisiana and I was so impressed !!! I was 18 and yep I voted for Reagan. All these debates only helps some one with such an ego and speaking to Americans in idealog terms. I think it will be better Newt to get the parents working before you have the kids cleaning toilets plus labor laws would have to change. Newt your brain is thinking thinking thinking. News flash your baggage will catch up with you. How can you campaign for Iowa while in New York oh yeah you are with Trump making up your apprendi?. Who is drinking this strange Kool-aid ? Oh yeah don’t call my house In TEXAS again for your vote . Seriously Rick Perry is my governor in the state of Texas and a job creator and my choice for the Republican nominee . I have to get to Iowa and do real politics not a reality show. !!!!!

  • carolina

    He was talking to don12345. (otherwise you will remain totally confused)

  • paladin1

    that Obama is so incompetent as to be able to apply his destructive agenda. It is the application of his agenda which has put our country and our workers into the dire straits they now find themselves. 8.6 % unemployment (which is likely much higher due to government statistical juggling), a debt of nearly 15 trillion $$$, an EPA which has been cut loose to stifle the growth of oil and gas production in this country, and businesses which are afraid to spend their on-hand capital for fear of Obamacare and its destructive taxation and spending requirements. I would argue that he has become the culmination of a destructive liberal trend that has weakened our national resolve, pushed the nanny state to the edge of population majority, and worked to end individual freedom and responsibility on a plane never before seen.

    The historical settings you mentioned above could never have been overcome if the nation at the time of each was in the shape we currently find ourselves; never before have all of these issues been brought together to weaken us at the same time. I do believe this election will define our nation and its direction in an irrevocable manner that will lead to victory or ignomy.

  • conservativeparrothead

    That need fixing, Bachmann has showed to be a good “&*%t disturber” but in terms of her ability to get something done or to come up with a conservative counterproposal and get that through to congress or the American people, its just not there.

    I was called by the RNC when she was leading in Iowa asking for a donation, and I went off on the guy, I told him we might lose 50-0 if she were the nominee.

  • monhar

    and “wish” everything is going to be allright. For someone to think that the current mess that Obama has created is not worse than the civil war has to have the head firmly planted in the no sun shine zone.

  • hls87

    Dean is nobody’s fool. He was in some ways a very clever candidate. He positioned himself just right. He drilled down into the Democrats hatred for George W. Bush and hit a gusher of support that took him to the top of the field. He built an innovative and effective campaign operation. All of that went for naught, however, because, when push came to shove, most Democrats couldn’t imagine a Dean administration. The Governor from Ben and Jerry couldn’t make the leap to the big time.

    I’d bet money (in fact I have) that something similar is going to happen with Gingrich. The man has his strengths. He’s a great entertainer and he has tapped into a deep well of hostility most Republicans feel for Obama and his media lap dogs. But he just isn’t a plausible President. He’s never contested, let alone won, a statewide election. He’s a giant swirling gas cloud of ego and half-formed ideas, which is not at all what the American people look for when they are choosing a CinC. He was a disaster for the conservative movment the last time he was it’s public face. Real voters casting real votes just aren’t irrational enough to give him another shot.

    Time will tell, and not much time at that.

  • bzip

    Well we have Mitt and Ron Paul going after Newt. Is Newt really going to go after Mitt hard? I don’t know.

    Ron Paul just released another ad hitting Newt, very close to the other one Ron Paul did that Erick mentioned (but shorter in time length);
    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/12/01/the-horserace-for-december-1-2011/

    Ron Paul Ad – Newt Gingrich Serial Hypocrisy 60 second
    http://youtu.be/1Jzi3HBCS2M

  • conservativeparrothead

    Wow…that sure changed 4 years later when those same voters of Iowa with high standards voted in a guy who had been in the Senate less than 3 years at that point with nothing substantial accomplished.

    I think a lot of people want to compare 2004 and Dean, and that may turn out to be true, but you have some other things that would need to fall into place.

    I think a month out, he was polling at 26% ended up at 18%.
    Kerry was about 18% and rallied into the mid 30′s to win.
    Gephart was 2nd in polling in the low 20′s, and dropped to 10%.

    John Edwards was the one who made the HUGE Jump, I think he was in the low to mid teens and ended up 2nd in the low 30′s. So if you want to take the Edwards model and apply that to 2012 you need two things to happen:

    1. Major Endorsement – he got the Des Moines Register endorsement I think the Sunday before the Caucuses in January 2004.

    2. Teamed support from another candidate – Dennis Kucinich, who has his “niche” candidacy with some support in Iowa probably in the mid to high single digits agreed to have his caucus supporters throw their support to Edwards.

    There is also some differences between the voting methods in the Democratic caucus vs. the Republican Caucus, although both do involve open forum and lobbying for candidates, making the case, etc..which is why the ground game is so important in Iowa, the Republican version still goes to a private vote, where my understanding is that the Democratic party votes in the open. So I would guess that in that scenario, there is more likelihood of volatility.

  • texas214

    As an Episcopalian I don’t agree with all things evangical, I even think there are some odd things that come out of certain evangical churchs. But that doesn’t mean I think evangicals are crazy, nor would I make fun of their interprtation of the bible.

  • carolynr

    Here’s the problem with the creditability of Iowa. They say that they believe in Jesus Christ and his teachings….and yet…wave a little subsidy in front of them…and the message of Love Thy Neighbor goes out the window.

    So…Iowans…if you want to grow corn…grow it for feed…not for engines. It ruins the engines and we get poor gas mileage. Food prices are high enough…why not put the corn back in the cow’s belly instead of the money into your pockets.

  • Scope

    As reported on Fox this morning, 61% of Iowa caucus goes may still change their mind of who they currently support. Only 35% say they will stay with their choice. 70% of Romney’s Iowa supporters say they may still change their minds.

  • acat

    that “The Ben & Jerry’s” candidate this time is Romney…. and his cloak of inevitability is breaking down …

    Mew

  • texas214

    Newt didn’t fair to well. Typically Newt deflected the issues of progressivism and the individual mandate, however he was unable to give a good explaination why he had held those positions.

    This interview could be taken as code for Tea Partiers to begin looking somewhere else.

  • texas214

    There are statistics and then there are “damn” statistics.

  • Scope

    Most of the items listed in this Mama Nanny Jones article
    I already knew about. The hospital divorce thing has already been debunked. I, for some reason did find much humor with the fact that when Newt tried out for his high school football team, the equipment manager had to custom order a helmet for him to accomodate his head. LOL The lap thing is a new one that I hadn’t heard of. Yuk.

  • Scope

    for his Al Gore connection back 100 years ago need to note that when Newtie sat on the couch with Peeeelozi, it was on behalf of an Al Gore non-profit.

  • Common_Cents

    Bush could have come up with a cure to cancer and he’d still be labeled by the left “Bush is dumb”.

    Bush was terrible at communication, media, and fighting the dirty left. Yes, history will be much more kind to Bush, in about two decades. He left Scott McClellan in the press secretary spot for how dang long? Just a reflection of Bush’s terrible judgement in that area. Hiring Tony Snow (RIP) was awesome but too little too late.

    Taking the left/media head on shows that they fold quickly. It is a rare gift and is hard to develop if you don’t have it. That’s why we need that quality that Gingrich, Trump, Rudy, Christie, Tony Snow, and probably Rubio in future, all have. Why the GOP doesn’t have seminars for all Republicans on handling hostile media is mind boggling.

    Look what happened w/ Trump ripping F Chuck Todd yesterday on MSNBS. Todd will NEVER forget that. Gingrich can slam any DEM media putz on command. Christie is brilliant at it.

    Gingrich is a bulldog fighter, taking the high road against this disgusting left we have today will be a loser.

    This is just one quality needed, not the only one. However, our candidate needs to have it to overcome the obama billion dollar media machine.

    Tell me again what candidate the left WON’T slime with their billion dollar war chest?

    Bush got slimed.
    Perry will get slimed
    Bachmann will get slimed
    Romney will get slimed
    Gingrich will get slimed.

    That is why it is critical to have a candidate who can best marginalize the lame stream media and win hearts and minds.

    Will the left say about candidate X, “gee he/she has a squeaky clean record”?????? they’ll slime, slime some more if they have to make stuff up. You have to be able to counteract that on the spot and think on your feet. You cannot hesitate and let the lies get repeated until they become “known fact” (Bush is dumb).

    It will be headline slime attacks against any candidate we have, and page D17 corrections 20 years later, if any.

  • tailfins1959

    I hold Perry responsible for allowing himself to be perceived as a dim bulb.

  • carolynr

    The reason that Perry is not polling as well as I would like is that he is against Ethanol subsidies. That’s it. Doesn’t matter than he believes deeply in Christian values…it all boils down to money.

    Here’ s a state that will give a percentage of the vote to Romney, who approves of Ethanol (WOW isn’t that a hint) and won’t even come to their state or debate in their forums. Guys…do you see the writing on the wall. It’s about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

  • lizzie

    which I attribute to both the ‘Huckabee Bump’ from his forum on Saturday, and Perry’s “Faith” ad. (I would like to point out that, at the end of the Nov 19 Iowa Thanksgiving Forum, Bob vanderPlaat actually leapt onto the stage to grab Rick Perry’s hand. But, Iowa’s Evangelicals were waiting for a sign from Huckabee that Perry had been forgiven his transgression for endorsing Giuliani in 2008)

    Santorum still at 6%, Cain was at 4%, and 60% say they are still persuadable.

    Y’all need to check the DesMoines Regitser for in-depth coverage :)
    Today, they have the photo of Perry hunting with with neutral Rep. Steve King on every page.

    Anita Perry has excellent Iowa schedule for Thursday and Friday. Rick will be in SC on Thursday.

    I await finding out if the Perry bus for his post Dec 10 Iowa blitz is Made in Indiana.

    As to Newt v Romney? it will play out – I just hope the news scream on Jan 4 is that Perry places third, far exceeding expectations. Ron Paul is the true wild card and I do not see how he fails to place in the top 3.

    Yes, Rick Perry has to be perfect at ABC’s primetime debate on Dec 10, and the FOX/DesMoinesRehgister debate on Dec 15.
    .
    I note here that ABC’s online newsblog has been the most fair and professional in their coverage of Rick Perry. I wish ABC would acquire a cable news channel.

    Did Bachmann really say she had not been invited to her high school prom??
    As to Trump’s NewsMax debate?
    For once, I am glad that Perry is as silent as Romney for as long as possible.

  • Scope

    with the 61% who may change their mind, and the 70% of Romney supporters that may change their mind. And of those that may change their minds period, there is nothing to indicate that those changing their minds would all head for Romney. I’d actually say that is very highly unlikely.

  • carolynr

    Yup….our two front runners … Gingrich and Romney will surely insure that your live up to the state’s motto.

    I guess it’s time to get on the liberal leaning DesMoines Regiter and the Union Leader in NH.

  • znjs

    She is incapable of telling fact from fiction. She wasn’t trying to smear Perry so much as she actually believed what she was saying. Remember in the 90′s the one relative that got their first email account and then spammed everyone she knew with chain emails that weren’t even conceivably possible, much less true? Remember worrying about whether or not that person would fall for some internet scheme? That’s Bachmann! There was at one point a real danger she would lose all her money to an internet Nigerian prince.

    “Obama’s India trip will cost taxpayer 200 million a day.”
    “The president released all of the oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve” (actually 4%)
    “One. That’s the number of new drilling permits under the Obama administration since they came into office.” (217 as of when she made the statement)
    Vaccines causes people to go retarded.
    She introduced a constitutional amendment to prevent Obama from doing away with the dollar in favor a global currency (I think I did get that chain letter in ’98)
    She finds it interesting that the last time swine flu broke out it was also during when a Democrat was in the white house (which isn’t true)

    “Iran is the trouble maker, trying to tip over apple carts all over Baghdad right now because they want America to pull out. And do you know why? It’s because they’ve already decided that they’re going to partition Iraq.
    And half of Iraq, the western, northern portion of Iraq, is going to be called the Iraq State of Islam, something like that. And I’m sorry, I don’t have the official name, but it’s meant to be the training ground for the terrorists. There’s already an agreement made.”

    And this is just scratching the surface with her. Do a check on any fact checker website. She is not able to tell obvious internet rumor from fact. And people want her to be either in charge or one heartbeat away from being in charge of our nuclear weapons? I wish someone could explain this to me.

  • lizzie

    has hurt him with Sen. Grassley, but not sure that has been such a major factor – partly offset by Perry having grown up on a dry land cotton farm, and he sure knows his tractors!
    .
    Grassley, Steve King, Branstad – all staying officially neutral.

    Branstad blasted Romney publicly for avoiding Iowa forums.

    Yes, I am following Iowa WAY too much. one of the few states I have never been to, but remember how Obama won their caucus in 2008. Ron Paul is using THAT playbook in 2012.

  • lizzie

    has hurt him with Sen. Grassley, but not sure that has been such a major factor – partly offset by Perry having grown up on a dry land cotton farm, and he sure knows his tractors!
    .
    Grassley, Steve King, Branstad – all staying officially neutral.

    Branstad blasted Romney publicly for avoiding Iowa forums.

    Yes, I am following Iowa WAY too much. one of the few states I have never been to, but remember how Obama won their caucus in 2008. Ron Paul is using THAT playbook in 2012.

  • acat

    This made the front page on Drudge – with the note that Ron Paul is going for Newt’s throat.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Newt handles being hit from multiple sides….

    Mew

  • wonkish1

    Another positive ad that is eloquent in talking about the challenges we face vs. the pettiness of constant negative attacks and how we can show the country that we care about serious solutions to our problems instead of a petty gossip driven media and political culture. Or something along those lines.

  • avagreen

    http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/trump-debate-obama-president/2011/12/05/id/419961?s=al&promo_code=DA78-1

    Billionaire businessman and major media figure Donald Trump issued the following statement to Newsmax about his role in the GOP primary and the upcoming Newsmax ION Television 2012 Presidential Debate:

    I have been deeply flattered that so many people have asked me to run for President.

    First, when I was considering a Republican bid, and I led in national polls.

    Since then, some have even suggested I run as a third party candidate.

    Let me be clear: I do not want to run as a third party candidate.

    My priority, my number one priority, is to defeat Barack Obama in 2012.

    I want to support and endorse the Republican candidate for president.

    Right now, Republicans are going through an important process to pick that candidate.

    Almost every major candidate has come to my office, met privately with me and has sought my endorsement.

    I have told them what I have said publicly. I will support the Republican candidate best able to defeat Barack Obama and the one who shares the values of most Americans: a strong belief in the free enterprise system and an unwavering commitment to a strong America.

    To this end, I have agreed to moderate The Newsmax ION Television 2012 Presidential Debate. Millions of Americans will tune in. This will give me and America a fantastic opportunity to vet these candidates.

    Also, I have just written a new book ? ?Time to Get Tough!? which reveals how we can defeat Barack Obama and save America.

    My sole priority is to accomplish this mission.

    Read more on Newsmax.com: Trump: I?m Not Running for President, I?m Backing GOP Candidate

  • buster93

    So much there is no room for it in the White House NEWT!!! I
    I read somewhere he has a million ideas but the attention span of a one year old. !!!!

  • acat

    (and I can’t think of a single candidate who should be bothered to punch the trained attack chihuahua that is Ron Paul.

    Like I said, this will be interesting as it provides some insight into Newt’s character.

    Mew

  • Common_Cents

    He basically sidestepped ethanol saying he is against all subsidies.

    I’d have to agree it is a bigger issue than discussed on why he isn’t polling better.

    People just don’t like to take their medicine even though its good for them.

  • 4suramcan

    are saying just what they need to get elected. Mr Perry is saying what is good for America. I dont believe he has any other agenda.

  • red_oakster

    Perry probably will play through South Carolina as will Ron Paul. That means the possibility of weak plurality victories in the early states. And if that happens this Newt or Mitt notion may go away.

    The GOP can choose someone at the convention if the primaries are not decisive. Paul Ryan is my guy if Perry can’t turn it around.

  • texas214

    Beck this morning on his show, Paul in his new ad and the general silence of some of the most conservative members of the House and Senate who served with Newt are the ones who are now making the case against him.

    Newt hopes the Left will come after him to innoculate him from the attacks on the right.

  • Ausonius

    I have sensed a great deal of nervousness among Conservative Republicans: is this the best we can do?

    “Another plump white-haired septuagenarian who isn’t really a conservative and has all kinds of baggage” is how one of my correspondents began her lament!

    She is a former student – 18 years old, a college freshman, and has started a website to gather Conservative Youth against liberals and bankrupting spending.

    Paul Ryan would seem to be a good choice, except for the lack of star presence. We shall see what happens!

  • red_oakster

    nt

  • Scope

    that we will see if the Iowa social conservatives, supposedly the largest block of Iowa R voters, would put more focus and priority on faith or ethanol subsidies. No votes have yet been cast there, but if you went by the polls, the two that support ethanol subsidies are in the lead, of course with Ron Paul in second place. That’s funny to me as Ron Paul would take the federal government checkbook, and put it in the shredder. So currently in Iowa you have the two most moderate big government candidates, sandwiching the most far right radical anti-government candidate. It will be amusing to watch someone else win the cauci.

  • conservativemusician

    Neither candidate is conservative and both have major weaknesses that will be exploited by Obama in the debates and general election.

    Rush is lamenting right now about how the GOP establishment media is going after Newt, but I don’t see this as a major problem. This should not have been unexpected since the GOP establishment is in the tank for Romney and always has been.

    Newt and Romney are RINOs and both need to be fully vetted like all the other candidates have. The sooner it happens and their real liberal records are exposed for all to see, the more time we will have to focus on throwing our support behind truly conservative candidates.

    Even at this late date, we can get this right and to me, Perry remains the most consistent conservative remaining in the race. He is still not out of it yet and my prayer is that he will get that second look that you have been posting about of late.

  • texas214

    Most of the establishment has been eerly silent on Newt (mainly because most can’t stand him), the attacks are stating to come from Tea Party types like Beck, Paul, and Bachman.

    I find it interesting that Dick Armey has been silent, if he came out against Newt it would be over.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    No more ‘brokered convention’ or “Draft [X]” talk. Shape the race as it is or regret it later.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    –no–text–_

  • Scope

    was mainly to point out the source of the article I linked. Mama Jones is a far left site as we all know, and that article is just a sampling of what is to come. I am very aware that some on the right are joining in with the leftist going after the Newtie. It appears that the higher Newt goes in the polls, more and more on the right that know Newt all too well, are starting to come out of the woodwork. Just a few weeks ago, there was no need to even consider him, and/or waste any breath or type on him. I’m reading that more and more are saying that Newt was especially brutal with his attacks on those from his own side that he disagreed with, or that disagreed with or criticized him. As many pieces of baggage the Newt may have, he has as long a list of enemies from his own side. They won’t make his ride easy or smooth.

  • perry4prez

    I will not vote for a Mormon president or for anyone who believes in other “science fiction” religions like Scientology. Mr. Newt may not be perfect and as a candidate he is less preferable to Perry but he is much better than Willard Romey.

  • windwaker24

    was in the coup with Boehner that forced Newt to resign his speakership. He is probably not going to say anything in Newt’s defense.

  • perry4prez

    I have never heard this, it’s disqualifying if true. Why people are dismissing Perry because of a Gaffe or two but are OK with all kinds of gaffes from Newt, Cain, etc is beyond me.

  • Scope

    are coming from both sides. I understand that Newt has attacked Glenn Beck in the past, and I’m sue Beck is all to aware of that. Back during Beck’s first year on Fox, when his shows were fascinating and well researched, he spent much air time going after FDR, including the fact that he was the father of the food stamp program. Now I’m reading today that Newt praised FDR in two of his books, because he was a prayerful president, and apparently Newt thought he was so compassionate with his concern for the poor, and insuring that the government provided them with the means to eat. Ha, and some have called Perry a “compassionate conservative.” I appreciated Atty. Gen. Cuccinelli pointing out, on Fox, that he was concerned that Newt would be another compassionate conservative. Isn’t that exactly why so many Republicans bolted from the Republican party during the George Bush big spending years? Now Gingrich is calling Obama the food stamp president.

  • wonkish1

    Armey and Newt still talk. I remember a press conference after Dede where Armey said that he disagreed with Newt, but still defended him. He said that he talked with him and mentioned that Newt has the right idea, but just didn’t understand the details of the situation.

    Newt then credited his phone call with Armey where Dick explained the situation as a key conversation that lead him to retract his Dede endorsement.

    From my understanding they have a luke warm relationship.

    Also Armey is the one that told Newt about the coup that led it to falling apart. The only reason why he didn’t right away was because he thought that the mutineers were going to install him as speaker. As soon as he found out otherwise he ran to Newt.

  • perry4prez

    America is a conservative Nation and it’s people are hungry for Leadership. They will support a candidate that adheres to simple and clear Conservative principles like country, faith, Liberty and self-reliance. This is part of our national character. We as Republicans must off them that choice and not a weak moderate candidate who will hand the election to Obama and let us be turned into serfs.

  • donald_24

    Why does everyone think that Newt will destroy Obama in a debate? The guy is a gaffe machine. Yes, put him in a debate with Obama and let’s see a question or two about his child labor comments. Or his $300,000 fine. Or his Freddie Mac ties. Or his Nancy Pelosi couch ad.

  • windwaker24

    Thanks!

  • perry4prez

    We are in the middle of the worst economy since the Deprssion (Hannity has shown its even worse in some respects) with a socialist/communist fifth column in the form of Occupy Wall Street. Iran is threatening to launch WWIII in the Middle East with nukes. We have a socialist, professorial, Israel-hating “exotic” president at the helm whose leadership skills consist of being a community organizer in Chicago. The situation is dire indeed and we need a strong conservative leader to take charge.

  • wonkish1

    I read the 2nd choice polls. I tend to know exactly where the support is going if someone falls out. It was very clear the 2nd choices of Cain supporters(even before Newt’s rise in the polls) were going to Newt.

  • znjs

    ‘For people who are only paying attention enough to go to the not-romney it shouldn?t be that surprising that they would list the latest greatest not-romney (Newt) in the national polls. For those who pay enough attention to also post here I?m betting a lot of them will go to her.’

    I’m not saying I’m definitely right, but that’s my theory. If you’re going to say I’m wrong you should at least acknowledge my reason for believing it when refuting it.

  • unsk

    Dick Armey ‘s “K Street Project” led the Republicans down the garden path to rampant cronyism. It was a disaster. The word of most Pubs in Congress as a result isn’t worth crap. They’re all bought and paid for.

    Perry can still challenge Newt. Newt is not going to implode. He doesn’t need to respond to negative attacks. You guys forget Newt has been viciously attacked by the Dems for two decades now. He is used to it.

    To win Perry has to show how he will lead us out of this depression. The stuff he has put forward to date just doesn’t address the true problems of this depression. But he still has a chance if he gets his act together. But that’s a big “if”.

    A guy really concerned about the direction of this country would have his act together already and would be crystal clear about what he needed to accomplish. My personal opinion why Perry’s debate performances have been so poor is that Perry has not thought very deeply about his programs or our economy’s problems and consequently he is not prepared to lead this country at this time of dire need.

  • Common_Cents

    Gingrich or Perry? That’ll be an interesting battle.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    nt

  • Scope

    you are off message, and wasting valuable campaign time. With Peeelozi’s threat to bring dirt out on Newt, he is spending time defending himself against her threats. Isn’t that part of the leftist playbook.

  • perry4prez

    One of the comments downthread made me think, how do we know Romney isn’t really running because he thinks it will help his chances to become a god on another planet?

  • free2smooze

    Any analysis of Iowa and NH that doesn’t include Ron Paul at this point, no matter how you feel about him, is so fatally short-sighted as to be worthless, Erick.

    Respectfully, your hatred of Ron Paul is putting blinders on you that is undermining the quality of your analysis, competence, and professionalism. Without considering a major dynamic in the race, you make your self irreverent and clownish.

    I come here for analysis, but your Pravda-like white-washing of reality to support your bias at the expense of your readers is the worst form of demagoguery. Write about what a tool you think he is, but don’t ignore the giant libertarian elephant sitting on Iowa.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • kestrel

    I thought he actually said No to ethanol subsidies, and then consoled Iowans with the fact that while he won’t funnel money to Iowa for ethanol subsidies, neither will he siphon away Iowans’ money for other states to build electric cars, Solyndras and similar things. He basically said that states can keep their money and subsidize whatever is important to them. This is as it should be.

    Perry was not sidestepping when he said this, but pointing out the obvious: Are ethanol subsidies (and other subsidies) worth putting your kids into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt and economically imploding the country? We are on a spending trajectory to ruin, at a pace that Paul Ryan has called “vicious”. There is very little time to turn this around.

    Newt’s pandering on ethanol made me sick. He didn’t even say “yes” as a concession, but justified it as a national security issue, saying, ?Economic nationalism makes sense when you are talking about national security.? Nevermind that fossil fuels will do everything and more for national security that ethanol would, and without the massive subsidization. I scrambled for a barf bag and wrote Newt off at that very minute. He is not a small-government guy, except when it’s convenient.

    Of the “top tier” candidates, Perry seems to be the only candidate who is focused more on the dire state of the country than upon himself.

  • gekster

    It is a total understanding him, and his insane ways.
    You should grow up.

  • Common_Cents

    “Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh on Monday reversed himself and signaled support for Newt Gingrich, praising Gingrich as “the last person” who was able to balance the federal budget and cut government spending. The move is a reversal from earlier, harsh attacks on the former House speaker.

    “Who was the last person to actually cut government? Who was the last person who actually led a movement that balanced the federal budget? Who was the person that did that?” Limbaugh asked, before singing music from the show “Jeopardy.”

    Like Rush does, if you cut through the brainstorming of an ideas man over decades and look at who as moved the needle the case is very clear.

    “He continued: “You’re not gonna take a guess? That’s right, it was Mr. Newt! The last guy who gave us a balanced budget. Now, there are a lot of other Republicans involved…but Gingrich was Speaker. The last time this budget was – the last time there was true welfare reform, the last time government was cut, Gingrich did it.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57337610-503544/rush-limbaugh-signals-support-for-newt-gingrich/

    Rush doesn’t endorse Gingrich but he does give Gingrich credit for RESULTS, despite whatever spin, rhetoric, egos.

    To not recognize Gingrich’s accomplishments is very disingenuous.

    Since Gingrich left, how have Republicans fared? Hastert, DeLay, Boehner? sheesh. Let’s have a little honesty here folks.

  • wonkish1

    It was Delay’s K Street project.

    Armey was majority leader during Newt’s Speakership and now runs FreedomWorks. I love Armey. I hate Delay. Delay is the one that became majority leader after Newt’s departure not Armey.

  • Common_Cents

    That should be interesting.

    Mitt now doing interviews to stop the campaign slide.

    Is Mitt going to implode?

  • 1bunny

    They had some news this morning. You and anyone else who has a blog should check out Perry’s new blogger center: It has links/button to add to your blog. Wish I blogged so I could do this but I am tweeting up a storm for him.

    BLOGGER ACTION CENTER
    IF YOU’RE A BLOGGER FOR PERRY: Check out the new Blogger Action Center at www.RickPerry.org. Let us know what you’d like to see in this action center.
    We want to help you help Governor Perry get his message out and connect with voters, so send feedback.

  • carolynr

    December 5, 2011

    TO: Joe Allbaugh
    FR: Mike Baselice
    RE: Iowa Survey Highlights
    Field dates: December 3-4, 2011
    N = 501 likely caucus goers
    Margin of error: +/- 4.9% at the .95 test level

    NAME AWARENESS AND IMAGE

    Rick Perry?s positive is at 67% among all respondents, and is at 71% among those who have seen a television ad about Perry.
    Among those who share all or most of the views of the Tea Party Movement, Perry is at 78% positive. Furthermore, Perry?s positive image is 71% among voters who are undecided on the ballot test.
    Rick Perry?s strongly positive image increased six points since our Nov. 19-20 survey.

    BALLOT TEST

    At 13%, Rick Perry is now in third place on the ballot test. Gingrich is at 29% and Romney is at 19%.
    Perry garners 19% among voters who attend church services more than once a week.
    Among the voters who have already seen the new faith TV ad, Perry is at 28%.
    Only 24% of respondents are definitely supporting any of the seven candidates on the ballot whereas 67% state they could still change their minds. Moreover, three-quarters of the Gingrich voters indicate they could still change their minds. The race remains very fluid.

    INFORMATION FLOW

    68% have seen, read or heard something recently about Rick Perry. The net favorable reaction to what voters have seen, read or heard has increased for the third consecutive survey. Our message is starting to hold!

  • Common_Cents

    That is pretty efficient use of campaign time I’d say.

  • 1bunny

    awesomely good news : ) We just need to keep up with spreading the good word on Perry.

  • wonkish1

    On that poll. First I’ve never even heard of it before so its got to be an internal(read paid to be unreliable, but create news).

    But the key thing here is that I actually read the polls regularly. His Favorable/Unfavorables from a lot of reputable pollsters aren’t even remotely close to that. They are way, way, way lower!

    Nationally Perry is sitting at around 35/45(negative 10) among *Republican primary voters*. And that has been confirmed by numerous pollsters.

    The only reason why I’ve avoided posting that on here is because I didn’t want to discourage Perry supporters(many of whom I like on here) into getting discouraged because numbers like that are really, really bad.

  • wonkish1

    nttt

  • explodinghead

    This poll is important because Iowa is a caucus state and getting out the vote counts on a freezing January day.
    Second, if Newt implodes in the next few weeks, or months are you really ready to hand the nomination to Romney?
    This campaign season has been a rollercoaster and he who goes up rapidly, has a nasty habit of coming back down to earth. Therefore, I am prepared to keep the faith with the Perry campaign, as I believe that many folks who currently support Newt would rather support Perry , than vote Romney, if Gingrich falters.
    If Perry really comes third in Iowa, he is still in there with a chance.
    I suggest Conservatives don’t burn all their bridges behind Newt, in case Ms. Pelosi really has some great dirt on him, or he shoots himself in the proverbial foot.

  • wbf

    Great news!!!

  • ceili_dancer

    Delay was also a contestant on Dancing with the Stars.
    Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

  • 1bunny

    http://www.newsmax.com/surveys/RickPerry/Rick-Perry-for-President-/id/21/kw/default/?PROMO_CODE=C7B7-1

  • kestrel

    are talking out of both sides of their mouths. They seem more focused on themselves than on the precarious state of the nation. This is not to say they don’t understand our peril (although sometimes I honestly wonder with Romney), but they often seem more concerned with getting elected than with slamming on the brakes on this runaway train to ruin. See my comment below on ethanol subsidies.

    Perry, as governor, is fighting Obama tooth and nail. And he’s not afraid to confront the big issues, like entitlements, on the national stage. He’s a proven job-creator, and is the one “top tier” candidate that I believe will really do what he says he will do. He has the experience to get things through the legislature, and seems the most willing to do the hard things that are necessary to reverse the leftist course we are on.

    I think creating jobs, getting rid of Obamacare, and to a lesser extent, balancing the budget, are the issues that will cause a lot of Democrats to vote Republican in 2012.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Hope everyone’s making a little stampede in that direction.

  • romansdaughter

    If it’s true, goodness he sounds just like Bill Clinton.

  • Scope

    Thanks for sharing that. I wonder if the some of the support is coming back to Perry because of his strong debate performance Sat. night? He has been spending a ton of time and money in Iowa. He was the first to start running ads in Iowa I believe. He also sent out flyers asking for Iowans votes. There has also been some definite upticking for Perry in other polling over the last week or so. I guess there is something to the belief that most don’t start really looking at the candidates until a month before the caucus/primaries. This is the worst time for Newt to be getting his thorough vetting, as much of the Newt news will be negative.

  • jbritterjr

    Newt has already begun to respond to said issues and others and he needs to be able to do so. He’s rather transparent about his positions, as well as his past decisions.

    Gaffe machine? See POTUS for a better example.

    I am holding out hope for Rick Perry to rise again, personally, but if you doubt that Newt can run an issues oriented campaign and leverage his strengths, you’re underestimating an accomplished politician, who seems willing to take the fight to Obama.

  • circlegranch

    Perry supporters will LOVE those results!

  • papabear

    nt

  • Risky

    The rest I can follow, but I guess I haven’t been keeping up with whatever this refers to.

  • avagreen

    http://www.therightscoop.com/poll-who-won-the-reagan-library-debate/

    “Rick Perry Wins! ? Poll: Who won the Reagan Library debate?
    Posted by The Right Scoop The Right Scoop on Sep 7, 2011 in Politics | 118 Comments

    The poll has been closed and the winner is Rick Perry, with Romney in at 2nd and Gingrich at 3rd. Thank you for voting.

    Ron Paul was disqualified due to voter skewing.”

    And, then there were a bunch of deleted comments apparently from a Paul supporter (s).
    Heh!

  • Locke

    Surely no one here.

    Whomever the Reps nominate will be one of the 3 best presidents since Lincoln, whether it is Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Bachman, Santorum, or another (I exclude only Ron Paul, who, by the way, should not be referred to as a “libertarian” without a recognition, widely lacking it seems, that he is from the technocratic/altruistic wing of the libertarian movement).

    But we need someone with the breadth of vision to lead the next stage of the battle – to flush the Crats and their minions and extirpate socialism from its entrenched position in American institutions.

    I think that means Newt.

  • tomatin

    12345

  • JSobieski

    Ideologically speaking, she is the mirror image of Obama.

    I am still waiting for her budget proposal that makes it unecessary to raise the debt ceiling by even a penny in 2011.

    I am also looking forward to her plans to reform entitlements and the tax code.

  • pj2012

    I thought that when he was at the National Association of Manufacturers Presidential Forum

  • schweizer

    As a believing Mormon and a life-long conservative, I can’t say how sad I am to see such ignorant anti-Mormon bigotry here and elsewhere in the right-leaning media.

    Mitt Romney cannot possibly deny the deity of God — what in the world would that even MEAN? — and certainly, as a faithful member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, doesn’t deny the deity of Christ.

  • schweizer

    I’m a Mormon. I believe that salvation is only possible in and through Jesus Christ, the Son of God, who suffered and died under Pontius Pilate and physically rose from the dead on the third day.

    I’m apparently also, as you suggest, too disconnected from reality to be considered sane.

    I organized this little website some time ago, where I and, thus far, roughly 325 of my fellow dysfunctional lunatics write about our faith:

    http://mormonscholarstestify.org/

    http://mormonscholarstestify.org/category/testimonies