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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Bad News for Barack Obama’s Re-Election

He is still the favorite to win. He is the incumbent President of the United States. He flies on a big blue airplane that gives him free media exposure whenever he lands. He gets to bring along politicians with whom he can curry favor. It is hard to pick off an incumbent President.

But there are warning signs on the horizon for Mr. Obama. It is not just a sagging economy that may actually be on the way down, not up. Battleground state voters are leaving the Democratic Party. According to National Journal, “Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama’s election in 2008.”

USA Today reports that Republicans have become resurgent in key swing states too. “Since the heady days of 2008, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points.” Republican voters are also paying more attention and are more engaged. In key swing states, Obama trails both Romney and Gingrich.

“But wait,” the television pitch man might say, “there’s more!”

A Harvard University survey “of more than 2,000 young voters, age 18 to 29, finds their support for Obama, so crucial to his 2008 victory, has dwindled.” The kids still like their Obamessiah more than they generic Republican, but they think he is going to lose. An Associated Press-GfK poll “finds a majority of American adults (52%) say the Democrat should be defeated come Nov. 6, while only 43% say he deserves a second term.”

And Obama’s divide and conquer strategy of pitting haves and have-nots against each other might not work. In addition to it running against the grain of the individualist DNA Americans have in them, a new Gallup poll suggests Obama’s class warfare strategy might actually backfire.

It is always hard to beat an incumbent. But Barack Obama is making it easier than it has been since Carter was President.

COMMENTS

  • tailfins1959

    You might have seen something like this : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came%E2%80%A6

    at the door of some professors. Couldn’t we add: Then they came for the 1%. That’s something to think about, huh?

  • earlgrey

    in order to help us pick the nominee? Yes. I am paranoid.

  • tailfins1959

    People are tired of the economy being a big crap sandwich. Obama is becoming like an impacted wisdom tooth. The only way Obama/Democrats will be successful is if enough people give up on being productive and decide to become muilt-generational welfare kings/queens. Is anybody interested in a Welfare Cadillac?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRKOmAPejNQ

  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    …and it looks like all of the oases are starting to dry out.

  • tailfins1959

    A certain percentage of people will sell their soul for a sack of flour. I visited Cuba a few years back and wandered off on my own. It turns out that some people will have innocent people arrested for some flour. Talking to random people led me to the conclusion that Castro has bought maybe 20% support in Cuba with things as small as soap and flour.

  • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

    ?You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time.?

    Truth is the enemy of the Democrat party.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    People don’t want to re-elect Obama.

    Do we have a fair choice that will make them go with that gut instinct?

    If we do, we win.

  • DerKrieger

    …that we’re NOT all socialists now.

  • medicineman

    Just got the patent for the bumper sticker…

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Unless the GOP leadership and entrenched establishment are replaced, there will be no long lasting gains. Instead we’ll have four years riding the side of the ditch and nobody to point fingers at across the aisle.

    Get your shine box Boehner, you ain’t Gingrich circa 1994.

  • lineholder

    Personally, I think that’s where we’re missing an opportunity in the kind of message that has been presented by Repubs.

    The “gut instinct” of Americans…in spite of all the efforts that have been made by the left to eradicate concepts such as “rugged individualism” or “pioneering spirit” or “the American way” from our society, it hasn’t worked. There are still shreds of it that exist, and it’s very strong in who we are as a people.

    I think the left believed that if they could set the stage of people needing “big government” to take care of them, via things such as high unemployment, expansion of dependency on welfare and social programs, and lack of the kind of leadership that people in this country are accustomed, it would give them an opening and a point of vulnerability that they could use to try to persuade people to turn away from concepts of “the American way” and choose socialism/liberalism/progressivism by default.

    I don’t think it’s in our DNA to choose socialism over freedom and liberty, but I’ve been realistic about the possibility that the strategy of the left might actually succeed. When people are suffering badly enough economically, provision of their basic needs becomes a higher priority, that’s all.

    I do think the people of this nation inherently want to protect and preserve the American way. I do think they are looking for someone who strongly believes in this element of who we are as a people. I do think they are looking for someone who can communicate this type of ideology or sentiment (for lack of a better way of describing it) in a manner that generates enthusiasm and confidence.

    And I think that’s where Republicans definitely have the edge, because the left doesn’t want preservation of the American way…they want fundamental transformation.

    If we can succeed in presenting that choice, we win. Hands down. I believe that.

  • Tavern Keeper

    I would like to request some front page analysis of Governor Haley’s endorsement of Mitt Romney this morning. Honestly, I am still trying to figure out what I think about it.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if Palin comes out for Romney within days.

  • inovrmihd

    If you want change, places like Red State should actively enccourage a primary challenge, and make future support for Boehner an election issue for any tea party member (ie. a pledge not to support Boehner),

  • cwilson

    Nikki has lost her ever-lovin’ mind.

  • smagar

    …and Democrats. Whoops; I repeat myself.

  • thirstyboots

    As well as people like Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and Erick Erickson.

    People getting all up in arms over Haley’s endorsement is a bit hilarious. As if there are clear better options in this field.

  • jlagrayfox

    Foreign policy failures across the board. Obama has lost the entire Middle East and has handed it over to his real brothers, the “Muslim Brotherhood”!!! And….within three to six months Iraq wil belong to Iran, just as Obama has deemed!!! What “Arab Spring”. It’s Obama’s “Four Seasons” for his Muslim Brotherhood brethren that has put America in harm’s way. And….Obama planned that way all the time. The truth will opt out shortly. America, not only have you been had, you did it to yourselves!!!

  • renl57

    Because of Obama’s inability to connect with white blue-collar voters, his spokespersons have said that he can still win re-election by appealing to the same type of voters that he won in 2008: Upscale white collar voters, students, etc.

    But if Obama is having difficulties in Colorado, that’s a sign that this road to his re-election is closing too.

    The list you cited–Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania–is practically a microcosm of the whole United States : Upscale whites in Colorado and New Hampshire, Hispanics in New Mexico, blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania. He loses all those, it’s a wipeout.

  • trevorb

    a good chance of making Obama a one-term president, but it would be foolish to underestimate him. This is a Chicago politician and he will do whatever it takes to win.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    This should be good. That is, if it ever comes.

    There were some pretty serious statements of confidence regarding Haley’s judgment around here. You also had DeMint, Palin, et al doing the same.

    Conversely, there has been gratuitous RS flaming of Romney.

    I smell some pretzel logic baking.

  • clintonformccain

    Of all the things the Republican Party has to worry about (like a field of Presidential candidates even their own mothers don’t seem to like very much), John Boehner is pretty far down the list of “issues”. A primary challenge to Boehner would be politically insane.

    It’s hard to get fired up over Boehner’s alleged lack of “fiscal conservative purity” when the Party’s three top Presidential candidates are Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and crazy-as-a-hoot-owl Ron Paul.

  • geoph

    I waited a day to process that first sentence claiming Obama is the favorite for re-election.
    Logically, I know that can’t be right. Low approvals, losing influence in legislation, retiring Democrats, economic conditions, world perception of our Nation, deriding Americans as soft and lazy. His whole tone campaigning is so different. When he believed the Nation supported him, it was all “ride in the back”, “get in their face”, “the enemy”, “if they bring a knife, we bring a gun”. I don’t hear that confidence now.
    Emotionally, I fear he IS the favorite. We read everyday (or rather we DON’T read every day) how crappy things are now, how fed up people are. I did read 70some percent think we are on the wrong track – then that conversation died. The MSM is suppressing/hiding/changing news as well as Orwell ever envisioned, and emotions usually present, if not over – at least before logic.

    Boehner’s compromising is part of the problem. A larger problem though, is the GOP has lost respect for the TEA Partiers – and well they should have.?
    TParty Cons have not flexed their muscle since Nov. 2010. It could be argued we have even stopped going to the gym.
    The solution lays with defeating Mitt Romney for our nominee.
    IF Cons can do that, we may regain influence; if we fail, our GOP just continues to blend with the Democrat Party – and we are left to live with letting our Country down and watching her die.

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    It’s really up to the conservatives in Boehner’s district to make Boehner an issue, as I explained here:

    http://www.redstate.com/coldwarrior/2011/03/22/want-to-change-john-boehner-it%E2%80%99s-up-to-the-conservatives-in-his-district/

    Some of the grass roots conservatives are figuring out that if they want to change Congress they have to “change out” the incumbents, and that the way to do that is to get involved inside the Republican Party as precinct committeemen. Here are a couple of excerpts from a great article at Townhall explaining how some in the “tea party movement” are figuring out how to get into the real ball game of politics — party politics (bolding added; link to article follows):

    “The Tea Party was a very showy populist movement in the last cycle,” said Steven Schier, a politics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota. “Now they are in the trenches and institutionalizing their efforts.” Some call the new push Tea Party 2.0.

    Instead of organizing demonstrations, an unpaid army of managers, small business owners, and stay-at-home moms is learning how to get out the vote, raise money and set up political action committees. They are working to overcome the territorial rivalries that dogged the Tea Party in 2010, when groups backed multiple primary challengers and often allowed the establishment candidate to win.

    Because the Tea Party energy produced a larger than usual turnout for a mid-term election, however, the young movement propelled the Republican Party to the biggest midterm swing since 1938, with a mad scramble to staff phone banks and knock on voters’ doors.

    “We came to the game late last time,” says Bob Orbin of the Northeast Pennsylvania Tea Party, who is a vice president at an investment advisory firm. “It was sheer craziness. We’re light years ahead of that now.”

    The key to the Tea Party’s grassroots strategy is to master the mechanics of state and local politics.

    “WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?”

    Last year Catoosa County Tea Party member Keith Kenney – who works for a tile maker in northern Georgia – was elected as a Republican precinct chairman in his county.

    “If you’d told me two years ago I’d be a precinct chairman,” he says, “I’d have said, ‘what are you smoking?’”

    The precinct delegate system is the basic building block of America’s two-party system. The average precinct has 1,500 voters and the main job of delegates (who have different titles in some states) is to get out the vote.

    They also choose party county representatives, who select state representatives and so on up.

    But Republicans have long relied on well-funded campaign advertising to win elections instead of a precinct ground game. So the party’s precinct system was so atrophied in many places that Tea Party activists were easily elected delegates in 2010.

    Once elected, Kenney compiled a PowerPoint presentation for delegates based mostly on Democratic Party literature (Democrats have traditionally had a better ground game). Now, using this or similar playbooks, Tea Party precinct delegates in many states are working on “walking lists” for their 2012 get-out-the-vote drives.

    The article is here.

    “We the People” have to relearn (or in some cases learn for the first time) the basics of civics and then organize and unite politically inside the Republican Party. And we better do it yesterday — we don’t have much time.

    Thank you.

    ColdWarrior

  • turkeyotooley

    Yes, she endorsed Mitt in 2008. But her endorsement is nothing but a tactic for her political survival.

    She currently has around 34% support. At the behest of the Establishment and probably because he endorsed her in the past, Romney called in his favor.

    Romney is a horrible candidate, but he is the GOP choice and they are going to push him. These politicians and pundits making Romney endorsements aren’t stupid people; they are simply exhibiting their self-interest. To oppose Romney is to oppose the moneyed interests behind him that pull his strings.

  • turkeyotooley

    By far.

    I really hope that you don’t have to see for yourself, but you will if the GOP / “Conservative”-media class has it’s way.

    Obama would love to run against Romney. Voters need to be given a clear alternative. The great irony to all of the “electability” nonsense is that a Mitt Romney candidacy makes Obama look good to an independent voter. Obama has Obamacare; Mitt has Romneycare. Mitt has no military experience; Obama got Osama. Mitt is a 1%-er; Obama excels at playing the class warfare game. Obama can’t create jobs; Mitt ranked 47th in job creation during his gubernatorial term. Obama led the effort for government bailouts; Mitt supported government bailouts. Obama supports abortion; Mitt did support abortion and it is uncertain how committed he is to pro-life causes now. Both have shown significant support for same-sex unions.

    So Mitt nullifies numerous attacks against Obama. “Independent” voters won’t be persuaded to jump from one sinking ship to another sinking ship; they will just stay where they are at. But wait, that’s not all:

    Obama is better funded.

    Obama has the media to do his bidding; Mitt will get trashed by the media every day during the general election cycle. If his Fox interview is any indication, he doesn’t possess the fortitude to withstand the coming onslaught.

    Obama is an excellent campaigner and knows how to energize voters; Mitt is already depressing conservative voters and many won’t show up to vote for him. If Mitt wins the primary, he may succeed in splitting the Republican party and cause a third party candidate to emerge.

    Mitt has lost something like 17 out of 22 voting contests. And he is the “electable” candidate. What ridiculous nonsense!

    Just complete disaster. It will be a sad day when the leader of the Republican party is someone like Mitt Romney.

    As for Limbaugh, Levin, and Erickson’s past endorsements, it is irrelevant. The extent of Romneycare was not known in 2008. Also, Romney’s flip-flops have become much more pronounced in the last couple of years to where his candidacy is now defined by his doublespeak.

    John McCain was a better candidate than Mitt Romney is now and look how that turned out. There are much better options than Romney; hopefully, caucus voters will figure that out before it’s too late.