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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Horserace for December 29, 2011

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  December 29th, 2011 at 12:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Nobody knows the winner of Iowa but Jesus. That’s the dirty little secret.

Matt Lewis hits the nail on the head on this. Nobody knows. Why? Well, the caucuses are a big event. You don’t just go into a voting booth, check a box, and leave. You’re there for a while. You hear speeches. You get persuaded. Then you vote.

It is slow going.

And we don’t know who will turn out. Even the best pollsters have a hard time getting the caucuses right.

We can guess that Ron Paul and Mitt Romney will be in the top three. But as for the third who may finish in second place or may finish in third place? It could be Gingrich. It could be Perry. It could be a late surging Rick Santorum.

It’s anybody’s game, but one thing is certain. If Perry or Gingrich are in the top three, we have a real race headed into South Carolina. If it is Santorum, we might as well sit back and declare Mitt Romney the nominee.

Michele Bachmann

Kent Sorenson, Michele Bachmann’s campaign chair in Iowa, betrayed her and went over to Ron Paul. Betrayal garners sympathy, which hurts Ron Paul and helps Bachmann, but I don’t think enough to seriously boost her numbers.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich is plummeting in Iowa. He’s still doing well nationally, but trending down. It comes down to his finish in Iowa and whether his campaign can transcend traditional campaigning. Convention wisdom says Newt’s campaign should be falling apart because it is so untraditional. We’ll see. My guess is Newt finishes third or fourth and if fourth it depends on the size of Ron Paul’s margin. But Santorum is suddenly a wildcard.

Jon Huntsman

The game doesn’t even begin for Huntsman for another two weeks. He has bypassed Iowa and I think he has done so to his peril. Huntsman could give Romney a run for his money in New Hampshire, but I think he made the mistake the Giuliani team made in choosing to ignore Iowa altogether. It’s going to be tough to go from New Hampshire to Florida, because he’ll largely be bypassing South Carolina too.

Huntsman can be competitive in New Hampshire, but he’d have to really, really scramble if he won. I think it will be tough.

Ron Paul

Not gonna happen. Ron Paul won’t, I don’t think, even take first in Iowa. It is possible. I won’t say he cannot. But the polls showing him the strongest also rely heavily on new voters, young voters, and voters who are not Republican. I don’t think enough of them will go to a caucus. He may take second place, but that’ll be the end of the show for Ron Paul.

Rick Perry

Perry has continued a slow and steady surge in Iowa, but I get the sense Santorum is now cutting into that. Perry will probably come in third or fourth, but Santorum’s creep up could put Perry in fifth like the CNN poll shows. That said, Perry has a stronger Iowa organization than Santorum and has spent more money there. I think Perry and Gingrich battle it out to be the non-Romney. If Perry is in fourth, but Ron Paul surprises us all with a stronger than expected showing, Perry can stay in the game into South Carolina.

Mitt Romney

It is still Romney’s race to lose and I would not be surprised at all by a first place win in Iowa. That’ll cause a lot of people to start settling for Romney, but I think we’ll have one last hurrah for the non-Romney candidates headed into South Carolina. It really all depends on — whodathunkit — Rick Santorum.

Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. Rick Santorum could do well in Iowa. If Rick Santorum does well in Iowa it (A) provides further proof that Iowans demand candidates spend time in the state; (B) provides further proof that Iowa is an anomaly undeserving of its first in the nation status; (C) provides further proof my fellow Evangelicals are terrible at politics; and (D) largely ensures Mitt Romney is the nominee.

The Romney camp must be delighted by Rick Santorum. I expect he gets a cabinet position out of this if Romney were to win.

None of the above

I think if Romney does well in Iowa, it short circuits the idea of someone else getting in. And that is the most likely scenario.

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COMMENTS

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  • angryguy77

    We should be excited and looking forward to beating the liberal dems, not liberal repukes.

  • Spartan4Life

    Let’s face it, Erick. He’s toast.

    I have hoped and prayed Governor Perry would catch fire and take off. I see no evidence that is happening.

    As for Iowa, he has spent time and treasure there. His deep Faith should play well there. There is no reason he should not do well in Iowa.

    Santorum is a weak candidate. If Perry can’t knock him out, he stands no chance of consolidating the movement vote.

    Unfortunately, just wanting something to be so does not make it so.

  • bzip

    I still say no matter what Perry forges onward, he is in it for the long haul.

    I suspect Perry places 3rd or 4th in Iowa,
    Newt will continue to go down ward.
    Santorum will manage to stay in till SC where he will be beaten to death and will drop out by that time.
    When SC is done it will turn into a Romney and Perry battle from that point on ward.

    It appears Perry is already hitting Santorum:
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/perry-hitting-santorum-on-earmarks-on-radio-109020.html

    http://bcove.me/8x79s4es

  • veto

    Not sure what you call it but he does seem to be moving up I just saw this on Fox

    Rasmussen Iowa

    Romney: 23%
    Paul: 22%
    Santorum: 16%
    Gingrich: 13%
    Perry: 13%
    Bachmann: 5%
    Huntsman: 3%

    Still isn’t up on rasmussen atm hrm so take with grain of salt…..

    Also saw this on Rasmussen interesting

    Voters Don’t Expect Spending Cuts Under Either Party

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 38% of Likely U.S. Voters believe government spending is likely to go down if a Republican is elected president and the GOP wins control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Twenty-six percent (26%) think spending will go up, and 29% predict that it will stay about the same.

    Seems people are catching on

  • znjs

    People jumping ship on her make her look pathetic, not sympathetic. I don’t think it help RP much, but losing people this late certainly isn’t a good look.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    Santorum can have a good showing, but cannot win long term. So his cutting into Perry hurts Perry, and helps Romney.

    Gingrich is toast, because he needs a strong showing in IA and NH.

    Ron Paul could win, but even if he did, firewalls in NH and SC will end him.

    Perry had several chances, but now is running from behind, with Santorum surging because he spent more time in the state. Perry simply does not have the power to catch up.

    Unless something insane happens, Romney is our nominee.

  • christopherestep

    Quick! Someone get Tim Tebow on the phone!!!

  • notpropagandized

    That Perry is attracting SRO crowds and others are left in want of attention. Does anyone have more substantial insight on this hope that Perry might lead the anti-Romney race… eventually?

    Iowa is really a ridiculous exercise and consumes way too much airtime and is way over-important. Does anyone wonder why they don’t just have a primary, or is that a question emanating from an unsophisticated political junkie?

  • citizenkh

    He is lucky to get a couple of dozen folks (including media) to show up at his campaign events.

    The bgger news regarding Bachmann is that the SuperPAC which has supported her is now doing ad buys n support of Romney.

  • bzip

    The link is up;
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

    Just as you pointed to;
    Romney: 23%
    Paul: 22%
    Santorum: 16%
    Perry: 13%
    Gingrich: 13%

    NOTE (+/-4%):
    This Iowa survey of 750 Likely Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    I can easily say that in this poll there is NO difference between Santorum/Perry/Newt based on +/-4%.

    We know Newt is going down and doesn’t have the ground game that Perry has and Santorum is somewhat less in infrastructure compared to Perry.

    If you assume that Romney and Pual take 1st and 2nd then:

    Just how hard is it to believe that Perry could still place 3rd or for that matter Santorum and Perry place equally in 3rd without much of a difference – so a 3 or 4 person ticket out of Iowa is very possible.

  • Whacker77

    For a whole host of reasons, some good and some bad, we ended up with a field that no one ever really loved. Goodness knows I’ve carped about it for months and months. I’ve hoped and hoped for something better, but we’ve got what we’ve got.

    I’m not a Romney fan and I’m not going to defend any of the non-conservative things he’s said and done. I will say we should all begin preparing ourselves for the likely outcome he will be the nominee.

    Mitt as the nominee is not exciting, but I hope we don’t go through the McCain purification we we subjected ourselves to in the Spring of 2008. We all know his faults, but beating Obama is the goal.

    I’m not saying we should fall in love with Mitt. I’m not saying we should refrain from providing conservative critiques of him. I’m just saying we ought not draw lines in the sand we’ll live to regret.

    I’ve resigned myself to Romney, but I do believe a Republican House and Senate will force him to govern more conservatively than he otherwise might.

  • gawken

    Why are you assumoing that Perry’s finished if he doesn’t make it to the top three?

    Look at what I cll the CBS vote: Cain (some of those still undecided are no doubt Cain supporters still in mourning) Bachmann, and Santorum. They are for the most part evangelicals. dd them all up, and in Iowa, you probably have 25%..add that to Perry’s total, and it’s more than 35%. Nationwide, it’s probably at least 25-30%..

    The Santorum and Bachmann supporters should almost all end up with Perry. Where else are they going to go?

    Santorum will get a bounce from however well he does in Iowa, but he’ll be a non entity in NH, and will have NO traction in SC.

    Key date to watch is mid-Februry, the filing deadline for the PA primaries.. I look for Rick to drop out after SC, and file for a rematch against Casey, who is vulnerable this time out.

  • Trubador

    It’s as though Perry doesn’t exist with the MSM. They must be worried about him, because eEvery time I hear or read a news account about the latest polls, Perry is almost never mentioned.

    In the last poll, he moved up to 10% from 6%. In this one he moves up to 13%. Yet, all you hear is Romney, Paul, Santorum surging, Newt fading. That’s it. No mention that Perry has been rising, and is current;y tied with Newt.

  • MarkByron

    What can’t he win? Yes, he’s a bit dry, but I don’t see where he’s majorly unconservative. If you want to hold a grudge for him backing Snarlin’ Arlin out of a backing-the-incumbent bias or other sins of the past, that’s fine. On those grounds, we can exclude Perry for backing Gore in ’88.

    Let’s put the reasons why on the table rather than just dismiss him. When those reasons are on the table, he might look better than the alternatives.

  • MarkByron

    Sorry for the typo

  • acat
  • bzip

    In spite of the media black out of Perry as Trubador and others have mentioned, we will not stand for this black out here :-) .

    Talking earmarks, Perry sets new sights on surging Santorum
    http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/29/talking-earmarks-perry-sets-new-sights-on-surging-santorum/

    New Rick Perry Campaign Ad ? Win Iowa
    http://www.therightscoop.com/new-rick-perry-ad-win-iowa/

    Win Iowa
    http://youtu.be/37tGkW1OIWU

    Rick Perry?s new Iowa TV ad: Fox guarding the hen house
    http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/29/rick-perrys-new-iowa-tv-ad-fox-guarding-the-hen-house/

    Fox
    http://youtu.be/NEaVhH-Rai4

  • snowshooze

    In the Primary, you get to cast ballot for anyone you want… in the party.
    Do it. It isn’t time to sell out on yourself.
    Nobody knows really how this will come down .
    You can’t win if you don’t play. And we can’t either.

  • logcabin4newt

    I think Newt can pull it off.

    I know he will, baby.

  • clintonformccain

    If a third-tier candidate is the best the Republican Party can do, it’s going to be a long 2012.

  • circlegranch

    This is why Perry asked for volunteers to come. Informed, articulate and passionate people are needed at as many of these caucus gatherings as possible. As an organizer of these many times, I can attest that the candidate rep that makes the best case is able to sway people that may have come in the door ready to vote for someone else. Preferably, its people living in the precinct or caucus area making the case but sometimes outside input works better or just as well.

    And, for all the kissing of babies and such, it makes good media fodder but on a cold winter night, the mom’s of those babies are staying home. It’s not a bellweather of who will necessarily win.

    Perry does have SRO crowds. He has a connection with people and a magnetism that draws folks to him. After meeting him, people will often comment that they’d feel very comfortable having him come to their home for supper or a cup of coffee at the kitchen table. Mr. Romney, on the other hand, does not impart that comfort with common people. L

    I agree w/ EE—if Santorum’s faux bump takes him into the top 3, Romney’s almost a lock which is why the media is so passionate about Santorum. There has been a take-down of every person coming close to giving Romney a run for the money. All the lib’s on cable are clammering to get Santorum on and for today, they are very polite and gracious in talking about his strong family values/Christian platform. We all know that once he’s served their purpose, they will attack him for those values with a vengenance.

    Also, we must remember that in Iowa you can register and vote the same day which means an Operation Chaos-type scenario could happen. Independents and Dem’s could change affilitation and vote which is always a threat in every election but it underscores the need to keep results next Wed. a.m. in perspective. Romney plans to win it big as he’s staying overnight and doing all his Wed a.m. interviews live in Des Moines, already assuming he’ll be basking in the glow of a #1 spot surrounded by Carhart-clad Iowans. Then on to a more comfortable, high brow atmosphere in NH.

    Finally, the GOTV effort for Paul is significant. Mostly young supporters are arriving to do honk and wave’s, make phone calls and knock on doors. Rumor has it they are being told to cut their hair and cover tatoos to appear more respectable, especially to the Christian righters.

    Perry fans–all you can do is keep a watch on the web for articles and then write comments; keep the truth out there; donate a few dollars if you have it to ensure those ads stay on TV, and beyond that it looks like a wait and see. It appears there are forces at work beyond an average person’s ability to control them.

    Rick Perry
    President 2012

  • veto

    He won’t win but he will probably finish in the top three in NH if he places 1 or 2 in Iowa. His Firewall will be S.C. I doubt his campaign would even try there.

    What is interesting however is the voting diluting between Perry Santorum and Bachmann, and to some extent Gingrich. They are all pulling from the exact same pool of voters if two would bowel out they might have a shot, if they continue through Florida like this it might be to late to stop Romney.

    Best thing that could happen is two or more candidates drop out after Iowa.

  • logcabin4newt

    Erick Erickson is just the man we need to make homophobic Ron Paul squeal like a pig.

    Keep up the good work, Erick! For freedom and democracy!!!

  • onemovoter

    And I don’t really see this “surge” Santorum is having based on what crowds he is drawing to his bus stops that he is having.

    I am following the reporters for 3 candidates, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum on Twitter in Iowa. These reporters are taking pictures and reporting on what is said and crowd reactions.

    Bachmann is doing her 99 county drive by bus tour but in pictures you see more media and ground crew than town folks coming to see her. She has been late quite a bit and is pissing most people off. I see her dropping out after Iowa.

    Santorum has been drawing 10-40 people at his events that pictures shows. People say he is nice but don’t think he could win over Obama and that is what they are looking for. They know Santorum doesn’t have any real campaign money so doubt in the end they will vote in mass for him.

    Perry has had anywhere from 150-300 people at each stop depending on how big the location is. Most pictures are standing room only. In fact one place had to get Perry through the back door just to get in to speak. I’ve posted links to these pics in earlier postings if you want to see.

    One of the Iowa reporters from a competing news paper said he may be drawing large crowds but not all of them will be voting for Perry. But the question begs… If you aren’t supporting a candidate who shows up or at least be inclined to vote for, why even go to the events? Those most likely to vote will take the time to go out and meet the candidate.

    I really do think Perry will do much better than people think. And that surprise will do wonders for him in SC and FL.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Santorum can’t win, for one simple reason. This election is about the economy and JOBS, and Santorum’s got nuthin’ there. Because of that, the election will become about social issues, and we will lose if the election is based on that.

    Now, I’m not saying social issues aren’t important, to me they are very important, but we cannot make this election about social issues alone. Making Santorum our candidate would do just that.

  • windwaker24

    He grates on people’s nerves. He whines constantly. I don’t know if he’s always been that way, or if it’s because he always surrounded by children. It’s gets annoying fast. My mother, who is a conservative but doesn’t pay close attention to national news, saw him on TV once and with a typical “Mom voice” shouted “Will you stop that whining!” I didn’t say a thing. This is just the image he portrays to people, whiny and mean. I was surprised how much Santorum and I agree on things…when I read it on paper. He seriously needs to work on his delivery if he wants to go far.

    As for organization, he has none. I don’t even think he has organization in other states besides IA. A national plan to get this country moving, none (or at least I don’t know it or ever heard him talk about it). I think he’s just in this for the face time. He and Bachmann should have never run, and I seriously want to know who encouraged them to do so.

  • ghostship

    “Republican House and Senate will force him to govern more conservatively than he otherwise might”

    You couldn’t be more wrong.

    If Romney were to become President it will 4 years of Conservatives being told to shut up and march to the moderate drum. We’ll get treated to four years of helping the Democrats push their progressive agenda and wind up taking the blame when their policies make things worse.

    I’d vote for any of the candidates even Ron Paul before I would even think of wasting my vote on Romney.

  • texabama

    An out-of-office defeated Senator with no executive experience. Being socially conservative isn’t enough…my pastor is socially conservative (and a lot more fiscally conservative than any of the candidates)!

  • circlegranch

    to either start doing or continue to do is blast Fox News with our complaints. We expect the other networks to pick on conservatives but Fox has completely dropped the ball on being Fair and Balanced. They have lost many viewers and if they want to stop that bleed, its time for them to include all names when they talk about these races. I’m not making the case for Huntsman and Johnson and the other also-ran’s; their supporters are on their own. But in the case of Rick Perry, the sitting governor of the nation’s second largest state, a person that has spent mega dollars advertising on their network and the only candidate in the race with proven jobs creation and the balancing of budgets, there is ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE FOR FOX TO BEHAVE THIS WAY. As Rick himself would say, “Are you kiddin’ me?”

    They gushed over Herman Cain, and for what reason? He’s a talk show host? He hasn’t been involved in jobs creation or business for 15 years. They must also think we didn’t hear about Brett Baier and Chris Wallace plotting ways to trip up Perry going into the first Fox debate. (Reported at The Daily Beast)

    The RNC and ruling class of the GOP ignore the majority; Fox News and a number of radio conservative voices have left us at the altar and every where we turn, we’re told if we don’t join the 25% supporting Mitt were crazy and stupid. And just in time for IA, here comes a poll showing Romney whipping Obama by several percentage points. Just last week all we heard was Obama’s comeback in approval ratings and how he was beating everybody. Enough!! The spin and the stacked polls are enough to drive people so far away from politics they will never even want to vote.

    The only way to curb this ‘blackout’ situation is to hammer the sponsors of Fox and keep the emails, letters, all forms of electronic communication going so they understand that their bias and attempt to sway public opinion is just as low-down and despicable as their counterparts on other networks propping up liberals. Fox can no longer hold themselves out as squeaky clean when it comes to reporting fairly.

    The damage may well be done but we can still keep reminding them that they have a long, long way to go before earning back our respect, and what matters most to them, our viewership and support of their sponsors. This topic was well covered in the post about how the Left was able to turn Colorado from red to blue. Conservatives have a habit of backing down on efforts like blitzing networks and keeping up the fight. That creates the perfect environment for the Left to quietly but surely continue their infiltration.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    n/t

  • APA Guy

    Gingrich needs only hit the Top 3 in IA and NH until he sweeps SC and FL…and right now, after all the hits he has taken, he averages 3rd and 2nd for IA and NH according to the RCP average.

    Perry’s path doesn’t look good right now…he would need surprise showings (win IA…or at minimum, Top 3 in both states) to build momentum that sticks.

  • jakeofalltrades

    They figure we wouldn’t mind, and they prefer to be in the USA anyway.

  • clintonformccain

    Santorum rode the Christian Coalition social conservative wave in the Republican Party to a short-lived Senate career where voters quickly realized that they didn’t really like the guy. I never could figure out why he was even running. Nobody ever viewed him as a credible serious Presidential candidate.

    This is just not the year to run a one-trick pony socon campaign.

  • Remington_Steele

    .

  • heraklios

    Either you give conservative candidates a fair shake via media, indorsements, funding and organizational support or else the entire conservative movement sits on their hands or votes third party. We would only need to do this once to get the Establishment’s attention…

  • heraklios

    Either you give conservative candidates a fair shake via media, indorsements, funding and organizational support or else the entire conservative movement sits on their hands or votes third party. We would only need to do this once to get the Establishment’s attention…

  • shadowtax

    but what does it say about the rest of the field that they cannot seal the deal?

    Ron Paul has been camping out in Iowa for the last 6 years hasn’t he?

    Michelle Bachman, won the Ames straw poll and is a native daughter.

    Rick Perry has spent what, $4 million on ad buys?

    Newt 94 Nostalgia got sucked up into the Cain vacuum for a while.

    And here comes underfunded, boring, whiny Santorum, who might just outperform them all.

    Iowa doesn’t matter, except when it does. I’ll just wait and see what happens.
    I fully expect that Romney will win Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, and then the nomination, but maybe I will be surprised.

  • heraklios

    What is going to motivate conservatives to get out and work this fall? I will do it for my local GOP candidates but I will utter not a peep for Mittens.

  • heraklios

    What is going to motivate conservatives to get out and work this fall? I will do it for my local GOP candidates but I will utter not a peep for Mittens.

  • JSobieski

    In another year, Rick might be a strong candidate. However, in an election focused on the economy—he is not a strong candidate.

  • heraklios

    Is he including the same number of indies and Democrats who will (or may) participate in the caucus? I expect more indies helps Paul and Perry the most

  • heraklios

    Is he including the same number of indies and Democrats who will (or may) participate in the caucus? I expect more indies helps Paul and Perry the most

  • pdawk

    Perry has outspent Santorum 10 to 1 in Iowa and it is the mainstream media’s fault that he trails Santorum? That is laughable at best. You can’t turn on a television in Iowa (or South Carolina for that matter) without seeing a Rick Perry commercial. He and Romney have dominated the airwaves and have had what seems to be an unlimited source of funds to get their message across. This idea that the MSM is holding Perry back is laughable at best. The guy has spent 4 million in December on ads and is at 13% (at best).

    What is holding Perry back is that he comes across as George Bush lite with less intellect. The guy may be great on the stump when he recites a memorized speech, but after Iowa the primary calendar is so condensed that retail politics will be irrelevant. Perry also hasn’t been a real threat to anyone so people have decided not to attack him for some time. Perry also polls in single digits in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, so he has a LONG way to go to respectability.

    Santorum isn’t RedState’s guy so I understand why he is getting bashed unmercifully today. However most unbiased observers would agree that if Perry had even a fraction of Santorum’s acumen, knowledge and ability to complete full sentences he would be running away with Iowa.

  • heraklios

    He’s a worthless piece of sh*t and we should let anyone who will listen know that.

  • snowshooze

    But it took me a long time to finally decide to go from the point where I was saying there was someone else better than Romney, to where I am now, which is best stated as being… there are only one or two worse than Romney.
    But… time to move on. I have groused about Romney enough.

  • JSobieski

    Romney is an unsatisfying back-up candidate, but he is better than Obama.

    Obama will veto the repeal of Obamacare.
    Obama will veto reform of entitlements.
    Obama will veto spending reductions.
    Obama will weaken the US abroad.

    Romney is nothing to get excited about, but his candidacy is not “worthless”.

  • snowshooze

    But I did qualify the statement with saying with a good Congress.
    We don’t have that right now.
    We have weak leaders on both fronts.
    And some of the more knowlegable around here might know if Congress has ever led a President around by the nose to any great success. It would appear that at least to some extent, Gingrich did just that. It is severly overstated in my opinion, but there’s that.

    Point taken though.

  • nativetexan41

    Just saw the video of him on Greta, loved it. Iowans need to get behind him next Tuesday, he is who we need in DC.
    He is better than Romney any day and has more executive experience than the others.
    Praying for him to have a good finish in Iowa.
    Perry 2012!!

  • Vegas_Rick

    who supported Arlen Specter, at best, and couldn’t get re-elected in his own state, at best.

    Nice try though.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and will be a surrogate [with Guzzardi].

    Have already received reaction to prior posting so, again, anyone else planning to be in Des Moines is invited to contact me…for a get-together!

    r.sklaroff@verizon.net
    215=459-4877

  • snowshooze

    Or… keep it simple…stupid.
    I wonder whom Romney might consider as Veep.
    It is really early to speculate…

    It will be either whosoever is at the head of the establishment line, and I have no idea who that would be…

    Or someone who would be complementary to the ticket.

    Possibly someone with some charisma. Someone with some charactar. Someone with some standards. Maybe a spine.
    Someone who stood up and stated what they were standing for…
    Possibly a couple drops of integrity.

    Oh.. . I forgot. What is Romney bringing?

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …because the slate of challengers will be vetted by the state-committee by the end of January.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …remind everyone that the primary-season extends for MONTHS, let’s not all declare candidacies “dead” prematurely, OK?

  • irishgirl

    agree.

  • Spartan4Life

    Governor Perry has to beat Santorum.

  • romansdaughter

    to stay in the race…Mitt Romney. I just keep seeing these supposedly conservative candidates slowly going out and like Herman Cain they seem very friendly and toward Mitt and look at Bachmann just heard one of her Super Pacs jumped to Mitt. Now why would that be?? I am really thinking that some of these candidates were encouraged to stay in so that the conservatives couldn’t consolidate behind one candidate. Like I am seeing politics is pretty smelly.

  • Castor

    IN PERU!
    Unfortunately the postman brought us a propaganda piece from Romney at the same time. Each one cost $1.18 in postage. These people are very well organized.
    Of course we?re marking our ballots for Rick Perry and keeping our fingers crossed.

  • romansdaughter

    Do you know if it is on YouTube? I would love to see it.

  • znjs

    It can’t be that there’s not much to say – it has to be an evil plot schemed out by “the insiders” to keep just my preferred candidate down.

    Face it, polling slightly higher but remaining at 4th (or now possibly 5th) place just isn’t all that newsworthy. If he surprises and gets 3rd place he’ll get plenty of attention.

  • supergirl2911

    growth is that he is the next non-Romney candidate to surge. People will look at him and if the **** hits the fan on his campaign, if it were a week earlier, then he too would drop, leaving it to Romney Perry. I don’t really count Paul.

  • seanl

    He has an extremely tough time getting his message across, let alone a complete sentence.

    By default good conservative Christians are making there way to Santorum. And despite Romney’s cash and organization, if it came down to a three man race between Santorum, Paul, and Romney I would find it hard to believe that Romney could get enough Florida and SC primary voters to cast the ballot for him.

  • sharp

    If Rick Santorum does well in Iowa … (C) provides further proof my fellow Evangelicals are terrible at politics.

    Evangelicals, God love ‘em (in every state) – are incapable of strategy. When it is a clear, easy choice (Reagan vs. Mondale) they do great. But, now it is Perry vs. Bachmann vs. Santorum vs. a catholic Gingrich vs. a mormon Romney vs. a write-in Palin. People who don’t understand many of the other non-religious, non-abortion issues have real indegestion with economics and/or foreign policy questions.

    And sadly, they may not be interested in learning about the bigger picture of domestic politcs beyond the reach of their daily life.

    So, a candidate who is able to clearly explain social security solutions, for example, may be faced with a nodding head, but with glazed-over eyes. It is a delimma.

    I would rather encourage Evangelicals in Iowa and SC to keep learning and broadening their interests – as opposed to arguing moderate vs liberal trivia with non-evangelicals in NH. Another dilemma!!

    The cure to political “depression” – or intellectual agravation – is to dig-into the issues and learn all you can. Let information guide your decision making.

  • Scope

    from this morning. Here is an article from the Richmond Times Dispatch which gives some info on the hearing. As a FYI, Judge Getchell was a George W. Bush appointee.

  • seanl

    in the Iowa caucus he could drop out. He said he would leave it up to god if he is to remain in the race, and we all know what that means.

    So I would hold off on casting your ballot until you see who is still in the field after Tuesday.

  • Aaron Gardner

    You are reaching here, pal.

  • notpropagandized

    But seems Perry should have resources and reputation to transcend a less than stellar Iowa showing. He MUST perform well enough to make the impression that he’s on the comeback trail.

    With all respect to Santorum and his significant personal virtues, he’s simply the next person in line and his surgelet is the same as grasping at straws. We know his worst 4 years would save us from the disaster of Obama’s best 4 years. But he does not inspire the follower to follow his leadership. Flavor of the week, forgive me.

    IF people wake up and rise above straw-grasping and put Romney, Gingrich and Perry side by side, then Perry will stand out enough for serious consideration to make it a long fight. His command of the spoken word will largely determine success or failure. He’s got the right agenda for an ailing-America.

    Also, if Ryan, Jeb, Daniels, Sarah care to rejoing the crowd, so be it.

  • Scope

    This reminds me very much of a few days before the last Iowa caucus, some babe wrote an article saying that Fred Thompson was going to drop out and endorse McCain. This is a typical Romney tactic.

    Perry already said that even if he came in 4th in Iowa, he is continuing on. Also, why would he bothering filing lawsuits in VA for the March 6 primary if he planned on dropping out if he doesn’t do well in Iowa.

    THIS IS A RUMOR YOU ARE TRYING TO SPREAD.

  • Scope

    crowds everywhere Perry shows up, while most of the others are getting a handful of people? Nice try though.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    conservatives do not move towards Perry. but if Iowa does go towards Santorum they will have picked the candidate that cannot win again, and they will have rendered themselves nothing again. I live in Iowa, and I can tell you this it is hard to know what will happen. If conservatives around the country do not start moving towards Perry then Romney will win, no one else has what it takes to beat Romney.

    Newt will fall in every state that ads are ran against him.

    Rick Santorum does not have the campaign that can go the long haul.

    Bachmann is not as loved outside of Iowa as she is in Iowa.

    Paul will also see huge drops when it comes to the othere states.

  • BigRedConservative

    And we’ve been the ones being conned. We’ve been convinced by every news outlet, blog and wannabe-Rush with modem that their candidate is the second coming of the Messiah. They’ve put us on every bandwagon possible and then jumped off leaving us to go over the cliff.

    When Cain was big in the polls I was reading blogs (not necessarily on RS) talking about him as if he had the oratory of Obama, the charisma of Lincoln, the foreign policy nous of Monroe and the economic skill of Reagan. Within a few weeks it was the oratory of Ford, and the economic skill of Hoover. It was blatantly obvious Cain was lost when the task didn’t involve selling pizzas. Yet we managed to (thanks to the MSM juggernaut) keep calling him a viable candidate until it emerged he was also a molester and bigamist.

    There are, have been and will be only two candidates who will be decent presidents worth voting for in the primaries. They are (no particular order) Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman. Yet the media hucksters convinced us (on the basis of one senior moment) that Perry was a hick, and that Huntsman (on the basis of a couple-of ill-judged campaign announcements) was a Marxist.

    I profess myself to be disgusted with how this primary has worked. Please tell me we will have sorted out our house by 2016.

  • znjs

    ?That?s God?s will,? Perry told a reporter when asked if there was any outcome on Tuesday that would cause him to end his presidential bid. ?There might be an outcome that he decides that I wouldn?t go on.?
    http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/perry-future-of-my-candidacy-is-up-to-god-20111229

    I doubt he will after Iowa, but it looks like he’s starting to consider the possibility of dropping out.

  • snowshooze

    Hmmm.
    I wonder if this might mean it could crack open..and even the rest wind up having a shot, petitioned or not?
    Not sure on that. But it is encouraging for the Perry Camp, and Newt as well.

  • beric

    He just has to survive in Iowa and NH, and then race to a win in SC and FL, and he’s all set to be the anit-Romney.

    For all the “Newt’s gone down” predictions, he’s still doing far too well. Santorum has no chance, and Perry only the faintest of one. My bets are on Newt, assuming nothing else dramatic happens.

  • snowshooze

    Who are you rooting for at this point?
    Sometimes it lends perspective, sometimes not.

  • tailfins1959

    Obama in the White House is like an impacted wisdom tooth. I just want the pain Obama pulled. I’ll take anybody and just want Obama gone. How many around here feel the same?

  • Xasteius

    1) Tina Korbe over at Hotair says that all polls in Iowa have to be taken with a grain of salt because of the holiday traveling. And I’ve said, the only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box.

    2) Rick Perry has a bunch of volunteers combing the state (the Strike Force) and has been gaining steadily in the polls lately (of course, see point 1). Any Redstaters on it?

    3) The CNN poll I believe was asking only Republican voters. The D’s and indies’ will probably go for Paul.

    4) In relation to point 3, why are the Iowans (or anyone else for that matter) letting anyone other than GOPers to pick our nominee? I understand that the Iowans are letting people register to vote at the polls; this idea is anathema in the general, why are we allowing it in the primary?

  • seanl

    So I would at least wait until Wed. morning to cast your ballot for anyone.

  • snowshooze

    He says what he believes, I get it. Doesn’t repeat it much. Get’s a bit tongue tied at times.. but it comes right over.
    I heard this rumor that Candidates pander to the Preachers.
    Not sure if I care to believe it or not.
    Any take on that?

  • seanl

    but to be perfectly honest, anyone but Romney/Paul.

    Perry has made too many unforced errors, and despite all his money he has not recovered in the polls. I think Santorum has a chance to beat Romney if conservatives can coalesce around him.

  • renl57

    Even Democrats admit that Mitt Romney is both smart and knowledgeable on economic issues, which are foremost in the voters’ minds right now. The Dems love to paint the Republicans as stupid, but that’s one thing Romney definitely is not.

    That’s what Romney brings. He’s pitching himself as the Maytag Repairman, come to fix what’s wrong with the economy and getting it running smoothly again.

    There’s the difference between your view of this election and mine. You’re looking for a candidate to make a philosophical statement. I’m looking for a President who can say in 4 years, “I fixed the economy after Obama and all his liberal buddies failed to fix it.”

  • onenationundergod

    This is maddening. Why is Santorum a weak candidate? Because he isn’t media darling? Why is it a bad thing that he has instead focused his time talking to Iowans? Why the disdain for talking to voters outside the beltway? I live in Iowa and I saw Santorum last night. I’ll be voting for him. I wanted Cain. I loved his charisma. After he left I have tried to figure out who to support. I won’t support Romney at this point so who? Newt? No. So we have Perry, Bachman and Santorum. I love them all. Perry would get destroyed in debating Obama and the media would do to him what they did to Palin in trying to make him look dumb. He doesn’t do well on his feet. Santorum and Bachman are strong debaters. They have had to share the stage. I reject Erick telling us it ushers in Romney if Santorum wins. WHY? Why doesn’t the same apply to Perry? Can’t Santorum get help with his campaign if he wins Iowa? Shouldn’t that matter?

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    No question – the GOP field for this year’s presidential race was extremely weak. I don’t blame Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or anyone else just elected, but I do blame John Thune and Mitch Daniels, as they would have been quality candidates that would have added to the debate and (hopefully) would have crowded out some of the weaker candidates like Santorum and Bachman. I think this shows the importance of elections in putting together a strong bench – clearly the underperformance in some of the Govs races in 2002, and the wipeouts of 2006 and 2008 eviscerated our Presidential bench. Seems like 2010 was a key year for rebuilding the becnh but have to work hard in 2012 and 2014 to reelect a lot of good folks.

    With that said, it is looking more and more like Romney will be the nominee. I know RedState favors Perry – but he is looking like a 4th or 5th place finish in Iowa, he is in single digits in NH, and not even doing well in South Carolina – although things could change there. I think his campaign took on water with his “don’t have a heart” comments and was swamped when he couldn’t remember the agency. Although, I am firmly in the Romney camp, I do think its too bad – as if Perry hadn’t been Rick Perry, he really could have added a heavyweight to this race with his jobs record in Texas and contrasting conservatism to the liberalism practiced in California and other stagnant, high tax states. He just couldn’t do it.

    In other words, its time to stop whining about the “GOP establishment” about “East Coast RINOs” and the “Mainstream Media” and place blame where blame lies and that is is with the candidate himself, Rick Perry, and with his campaign.

    Give Romney credit, all year he has run his race and executed his strategy. He has raised the most money, built the best organization, and for the most part trained his fire on Barackl Obama. He has been the best candidate, made the fewest mistakes, and had the best campaign. I know many of you have twisted yourselves in knots trying to explain non-conservative positions/statements/beliefs to justify an anything goes attack on Mitt Romney, but give credit where credit is due for the guy running a good operation – in conservative circles this used to count for something . . .

    Clearly this nomination battle could go to the end of January or could go on longer ( I think it goes longer), but whenever it ends, I hope the whiny voices above of those who “won’t vote for Mitt Romney even if he is the nominee” are only idle threats or of folks that should be isolated. Because this country cannot survive another 4 years of Barack Obama. So nurse your grduges for a few weeks/months and then get to work – even if it is to turn out voters for House/Senate elections, because to truly make some changes, we need the Senate and the Presidency along with the House.

  • snowshooze

    I’ll take that at face value.
    And give you the point that Perry isn’t nearly as polished as others.
    But he only dabbles in show busniess.
    I’m sure he will do ok if he practices a bit more, a guy can learn that stuff.

  • onenationundergod

    Agreed. Let’s do just that. It is time conservatives consolidate. See my post.

  • snowshooze

    Philosophical is a big word fer me. We got one them now.
    But Romney does have some business acumen.
    I just hope he doesn’t dismantle us and sell off the pieces.
    As I recall, the Maytag repairman lives in a lighthouse…
    Just hoping that some day he is needed.

  • Aaron Gardner

    He was also a disgusting suck weasel when it came to standing up for principle. He increased the size of gov’t through many of his votes and endorsed Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey.

  • pdawk

    You completely avoided the subject matter of my post and called Santorum a squish. What does that say about Perry if the squish with no money, no organization, and no chance beats him in the Iowa caucuses?

  • pdawk

    Time for the RedState front pagers to turn their guns on poor Rick Santorum. You guys must be getting cross-eyed from having to aim your venom in so many different directions. I would be upset to if my candidate spent 4 million in December and trailed a guy that operates on a shoestring budget.

  • ghostship

    Romney is nothing if not Mr Status Quo.

    Under a Romney Administration.

    Repeal Obamacare? Not a chance. At most he’ll just want to tinker around the edges to “improve” Obamacare and thus further enshrine socialized medicine into America.

    Reform of entitlements? He has no spine to take on Seniors who are going to insist they get what they’re entitled to whether it conforms to reality or not.

    Spending cuts? Hah, at best there will only be reductions in the rate of spending increases and most of that will supposedly occur 10 or so years down the road.

    Weaken the US abroad? That’s going to happen regardless of who gets elected. The U.S.A. is broke and its military stretched way to thin to do anything.

    Furthermore our culture has become too effeminate to effectively wage war anymore as evidenced by our embrace of limited warfare. Gone are the days when a president would order the dropping of a nuke on an enemy or bombing its cities into ruble. Now we can’t send soldiers out onto the battlefield without tying one hand behind their backs with restrictive ROE’s for fear of civilian causalities. If we had kept to limited warfare during WW2 then we would either be speaking German or Japanese right now.

  • burke

    And that’s not terribly unlikely, either. He’s polling fifth in Iowa. And Perry has spent a lot of money on ads in Iowa. He’s spent a lot of time there. He’s flexing his social conservative muscles for Iowans. Also, he’s doing distinctly worse in all the other primary states. If he can’t even buy his way into the top three in Iowa, after all that money spent — it’s hard to see how he moves forward. How is he supposed to replicate his Iowa effort in later states, even if he winds up third? I mean, SC is supposed to be Perry country – but he’s not polling well there. He’s behind Bachmann, for Pete’s sake, and all the mainstream media (and increasingly the blogosphere) does is either ignore or denigrate her.

    I think there’s a lot of Perry support here at RedState, so it’s easy to be really bullish about Perry’s chances. But realistically…. Perry only has an outside chance of making it past Florida or so. Look at the polls in the early states. It’ll only get worse if Perry ends up fourth or fifth in Iowa — and even third, to be honest, is not that impressive for a candidate of Perry’s impressive means and credentials. Huntsman is my favorite candidate right now (hey, I’m a fiscal conservative and I like results; I also liked Pawlenty) and I’ll probably vote for him if he’s still on the ballot when my state comes up, but I have no illusions about how his candidacy will probably end up — like Giuliani without the early surge, most likely, unless Romney somehow implodes. But Romney’s not going to implode. But maybe it’s easier for me to be realistic/pessimistic because few people like my candidate here.

    More wishful thinking evident in EE’s post: Paul disappearing after Iowa. I’m not sure how much Paul’s extreme views and bigoted remarks are hurting him. They aren’t in Iowa. I haven’t seen any recent NH polls that focus only post-Christmas, but he’ll probably have a top three finish there, too. I think people have heard that Paul has extreme views and about the bigoted newsletters and they’re willing to look past it out of desperation and maybe a desire to thumb their nose at the Establishment. People are looking past Gingrich’s baggage for similar reasons; it’s not ideal, they think, but they knew that stuff already.

    Here’s my question about Paul: Why would a candidate who’s got plenty of money and a strong ground game, and who’s in the top two in Iowa, and top three in NH drop out or become irrelevant? He won’t be the nominee, but I see it ending up a Romney – Gingrich – Paul (with Paul taking 8-20% of the vote in most states, and maybe winning a few small caucus states) three-way race through March or so. Of course, if Gingrich can’t hack it, we’ll have Romney much earlier…but I think Gingrich will do well enough in NH and IA, and will win either SC or FL. And far from being bad for Gingrich, Paul’s probably taking from Romney…I think a lot of Paul’s new support is coming from frustrated fiscal conservatives and/or moderate and liberal Republicans who aren’t values voters and don’t want to support Romney because they dislike and distrust him.

  • Wubbies World

    Considering that he has zero ground game and zero organization outside of Iowa, where is that going to take us? Lets not forget all the big government legislation he has voted for too.

    I wonder how many liberals he will bring into his administration. Arlen Spector will be there in the line I am sure.

    Please forgive me, this little surge of his is beyond rational for me. The only reason why its occurring is because he hasn’t jumped under the microscope yet for everyone to see his record. After he undermines a conservative by taking votes away in Iowa he will be under the microscope. Then once everyone will see his record, he will fade away very quickly. I am sure of this result and the votes a conservative could have used will still be gone.

    However, this is Romney’s ticket to the win. He’s counting on it.

  • pdawk

    Do you think they are biased towards Santorum or that Rick Perry voters don’t own phones? Santorum has real momentum and it is been pretty evident in the polling. Of course we will all find out in 5 days.

  • hanc

    I think if Huntsman does well in NH, conservatives will rally behind him as the antiRomney candidate.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Which is poor on spending and poor on the expansion of the federal gov’t.

  • http://twitter.com/biggator5 BigGator5

    Are you talking about the same tool who believes in Global Warming? Please.

  • onenationundergod

    Good points. I think Santorum has a better chance than Bachman. Perry came in late and I don’t get the sense he has enough support. Ron Paul is going to do very well here. He is confusing conservatives with his talk of the constitution. He is a libertarian and should run as such. He also has many dem’s changing party to vote for him in the caucus. The anti war dems do support him but I doubt they would abandon Obama in the general

  • onenationundergod

    What about the bills he authored that were good? What about welfare reform? I believe he stands for limited government.

  • Scope

    I’ve seen some of those events on TV, and unless they are all statues standing in the audiences, there is no conspiracy to the fact that he is talking to standing room only crowds. In fact a few nights ago Fox’s Carl Cameron, not a Perry fan by any stretch was reporting from a Perry event, and said it was a standing room only crowd, which I viewed with my own eyes in the reporting.

    I don’t buy the current polling, and have actually not bought most polling for the past few weeks at least. I see the Iowa race as still to close to call. I do find it interesting that Santorum has been camped out in Iowa for the last year, he has hit every one of the 99 counties, and still as of a few days ago, he was still in the low digits in polls, for whatever they are worth. Now all of a sudden, less than a week before the caucuses he shots up faster than any other candidate has shot up in that short amount of time? That’s why I don’t buy the polls.

  • Wubbies World

    …. the electorate gets more conservative and “anybody can vote” rules get diminished as well. I fully expect Romney, Gingrich and Perry to remain the solid top three with varying order. I do expect Ron Paul to fade away quickly as his nuttiness gets more attention with the electorate. I expect Santorum will completely disappear after Iowa since the is no organization past that state. Bachman is only angling for a VP slot in my opinion.

    Considering the quick fall of Gingrich in the polls and Perry’s gradual rise, Perry and Gingrich will have a dog fight for the “Not Romney” vote, especially going into Super Tuesday. I think Super Tuesday will be a cleansing day for the field. That is when we will get a solid sense of who the nominee will most likely be at that time.

    I don’t think we will know who the nominee will be until May, but all of this is just my opinion.

  • seanl

    He was obligated to support him. I think that is a very unfair criticism.

    Anyhow, in the primary states organization is overrated. Neither SC or FL are caucus states. 70% of Republicans don’t like Romney. That is hard to overcome… even with organization.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Who knew?!

  • Wubbies World

    I do think Perry will continue to rise. I think he will surprise people – a lot.

    Gingrich and Romney will not go away anytime soon, but Perry is not going away either. As the primaries continue on and move to the south, I expect Perry to get stronger.

  • seanl

    that the vast majority of Republican Senators and Congressmen didn’t support. You automatically disqualify almost all Republicans who served with him from ever running for national office. These criticisms are ridiculous.

  • onenationundergod

    He would eliminate the corporate business tax. He is very interested in issuing permits to coal plants and allowing drilling in ANWAR. That is jobs baby,

  • nepanyrush

    As Perry crashed and burned, so many posters in redstate have embraced a slash-and-burn strategy of denigrating any conservative alternative. Of all the candidates, Santorum is the only conservative that maintained basic pro-life, conservative principles and still managed to win two -state wide elections in a blue state. He is much quicker on this feet than deer-in-the-headlights, fractured English Perry, and is well ahead of Perry in both Iowa and New Hampshire (where Perry gets 2 percent of the vote, 2%!!!).

    If Perry really cares about conservative principles, he would drop out and help Santorum. Perry has zero chance of winning a general election given the large number of unforced errors he has made in this election. He is already depicted as “George Bush without the brains.”

  • Wubbies World

    Well he switched parties after Reagan and the Republicans had the majority, but true to form, he switched back to being a Democrat when the Democrats won back power. – but I think you are being sarcastic and already knew this. LOL

    He was always a liberal. That never changed. That is why Santorum’s endorsement always bothered me.

  • onenationundergod

    I’m personally glad we have Alito and John Roberts on the court.
    We don’t fully grasp the power of committeeships in DC and how things get done.

  • Wubbies World

    and always has been. He just wore Republican clothes so he could control his turf in the Senate.

    …and Santorum never HAD TO endorse him. In a primary any politician can stay out of the fray. He chose to jump into it.

  • acat

    If you’re going to defend Santorum, go ahead.

    Hint – trashing Perry supporters with hit-and-run tactics is not supporting Santorum.

    Mew

  • acat

    legislators don’t often make it onto the ballot as executives.

    Mew

  • notpropagandized

    Yeah, we’re pretty much down for that. But you tell me. Ann Coulter has always said that if you nominate a REAL conservative, then voters will emerge from the woodwork to vote for him/her. But now she’s gone chicken saying the risk is too great to lose to Obama so we should go for Romney. That tells me she never believed her own admonition or that somehow she’s on the very, very long Romney “bought-off” list.

    Get someone, a PROVEN LEADER, to represent evangelicals, 2ndAmendmenters (lots of ‘em out there), fiscal conservatives/deficit hawks, social conservatives, etc. This is why my ranking now is:
    Perry Newt Huntsman Bachmann Romney Santorum

    Perry leads my list but we know that articulation is part of leadership.
    Bachmann/Santorum lack effective leadership record.
    … neither has evidence that can get others to run with them.
    Huntsman / Romney have serious problems with conservatives.
    Don’t trust someone w/out a strong faith walk: Huntsman.
    … Huntsman believes macro-evolution. No good science for it.
    Romney could be just fine, but his history creates HUGE DOUBT.

    If I could choose anybody, it’d be Jeb Bush and hope he’d keep ESTABLISMENT at arms length.

  • Wubbies World

    However, he was all about preserving that power that is why he jumped back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans. He wanted to keep that power. As far as his political philosophy was concerned, it centered around maintaining that power, and maintaining power in Washington always has been about being a liberal.

  • onenationundergod

    I reject the beltway telling us who to vote for and what to think. Santorum has no money now but if he wins does well in Iowa, why wouldn’t that change? I respect him talking to people. WE THE PEOPLE are supposed to decide. I never paid much attention to him but had to go listen to him in order to figure out who to support next week. He is awesome in a town hall format and could debate Obama. He is for limited government. I fault no one for voting for No Child Left Behind. It turned out to be a disaster as most programs do, but it has shined a light on the devastating situation in the public schools. Since they are getting our money, they should be testing so we know how bad they are doing. And now we know. Santorum is for local control of schools.

  • JSobieski

    Anyone defending the spending practices of R’s between 2002-2006 is someone automatically at the bottom of my non-Ron Paul list.

  • gekster

    Attacks are telling lies about the candidates.
    Posting facts is just that.
    Posting facts.
    This is a primary, and the more ‘facts’ posted about the candidates the better.

  • thinkfirst1

    Santorum lost PA as the Incumbent US Senator by 20%?

    Do we really want to nominate the 20% loser of a State critical to winning against Obama?

    Also, he sold-out social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and the Republican Party by endorsing a liberal over a conservative who then switched to the Party with whom he was obviously (obvious to everyone but Santrum apparently) most-naturally-affiliated.

    That’s pretty poor judgment on Santorum’s part.

    Like Gingrich and Paul and Bachmann – Santorum has no experience as a governor – so neither he nor we have any idea if he is even capable of being an effective president.

    Why would conservative voters be so self-destructive as to reject a candidate with 11-years of increasingly-conservative experience as the chief executive of Texas – whose leadership resume and record contrast radically with the destructive failure of Obama (like none of the others) and go with an empty suit full of empty promises and no record of accomplishment?

    BTW: Perry has been reelected twice in Texas where they play political hardball. Once he gets his head into the game he always finishes strong.

  • hanc

    Even though he has a solid conservative record, more so than other candidates being supported by conservatives, indies and dems seem to like him. That is a dream candidate for conservatives. We get our values represented without having put up much of a fight. He could easily beat Obama. Any of the other conservative candidates will have a serious fight on their hands. Indies and moderate dems are looking for an alternative but they won’t pull a lever for the likes of gingrich or perry. Huntsman is the conservative in sheep’s clothing we’ve all been looking for. Just didn’t notice him beneath the low polling. With a NH strong showing, especially if Santorum wins in IA, conservatives will need to get real about who can beat Romney and who can beat Obama. I’m only seeing Huntsman viable. Otherwise we’ll be holding our nose for Romney in November.

  • JSobieski

    What in Romney’s economic plan suggests he will unleash a new generation of enterpreneurship and growth in the US?

    Eliminating capital gains taxes on those making less than $200k/year?

    Does anyone believe that Romney will LEAD on entitlement reform or tax reform or spending cuts.

    I will vote for Romney if necessary because he won’t veto Ihopefully) what Paul Ryan and DeMint can get out of Congress.

    Romney isn’t going to fix anything—he just won’t get in the way.

  • snowshooze

    And it pre-existed him. The machine is vested in him.
    MSM loves him I guess. It would present the most interesting fight.
    Obama might win.

  • jimmyg

    The Judge recognizes that AG Cuchinelli may have a conflict of interest in voicing his opinion as to easing the rules and statutes having to do with ballot access. AG Cuchinelli is under a duty to defend the statutes as written. He also is putting the AG on notice that if he does not raise the defense of latches, the court will.
    In other words, the Court wants to know why Gov. Perry is complaining now, when he could have complained about the statute restricting petition circulators to VA residents when he entered the race.

  • seanl

    At that time, before the tea party movement, every single Republican regardless of how conservative they were would have supported Specter. That is just a given that you lend your support to your fellow Republican Senator – especially if you represent the same state. That sort of criticism is unfair and silly.

    Yes there is not written law that says you have to support your fellow Senator, but that was the code of conduct. And for better or worse Santorum is not a “maverick” like Paul, Lieberman, or McCain.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Congressmen are generally suck weasels who hide their lack of principle behind “Party Loyalty”.

  • seanl

    Perry would have done the same.

  • lizzie

    http://www.ny1.com/content/news_beats/ny1_political_itch/151141/ny1-itch–a-monday-itch-as-perry-parries

    and, for the record, Gov. Perry is absolutely correct in what NYC was like in 1972, and all the way until 1992 – a dark, scary place where no one felt safe, anywhere. My car was broken into on Madison Avenue and 80th Street at 6 p.m. on a weekday, parked next to an elementary school, with the sun still shining in 1987, in front of dozens of people in the wealthiest neighborhood in Manhattan. (I had put my car radio under the seat because I thought it too dangerous to carry it with me to my doctor’s office on Park Avenue.)
    It got worse in the 1980′s when the deranged crackheads would break your car window, or mug you, in broad daylight. I still remember the moment at noon on a Saturday when the man behind me in line at a small food store on Broadway announced how he was going to rob the cashier and all the rest of us. I thought the Korean man at the cash register was going to have a heart attack. There must have been a dozen of us. I did not know if the man behind me in line had a gun, but decided to ignore him, pay for my purchase, and, when he followed me out of the store onto the very crowded sidewalk, I just kept walking until my 6’4″ mean friend who was waiting for me in my car saw what was happening and got out and stood on the sidewalk. Faced with a “twofer”, the deranged mugger melted away. Noon on a Saturday full of busy shoppers. Manhattan in 1987.

    The above short interview with NY1 justifies my making certain anyone reading this knows that Rick Perry was 100% correct about pre-Giuliani NYC, which was suffering from de-population by the time I moved there in 1978.

    I just read that NationalJournal story by Rebecca Kaplan that seanl was referring to and someone else provided the URL.

    Anyone who has been following news coverage of Rick Perry knows that R Kaplan and her colleagues at National Journal have consistently gone out of their way to smear Rick Perry under the guise of “journalism”.
    In this case, Rebecca Kaplan is quoting what Rick Perry said to an UNIDENTIFED reporter.
    Anonymous sources are so easy to abuse.

    Have to admit, Perry sure has tried to NOT attack Santorum, but at least the Iowa radio ad is a fair attack on pork. They are both trying to turn Iowa into an inconclusive four or five way tie. But, Perry has the advantage with veterans, hunters, farmers, and small business owners that Santorum does not.

  • tailfins1959

    Iowa caucus goers have more exposure to the candidates, meaning that their decision will be more informed. All the candidates have flaws and the pressure of the campaign will expose who is the weakest. No one candidate jumps out as the obvious choice for the nominee. Bachmann strikes me as an a**hole and Paul is a clown. Maybe you could put them together and have an a**clown ticket. Other than that, the rest are plausible.

  • Wubbies World

    Considering the endorsement came in a primary, in my opinion, it was an unnecessary endorsement.

    Yes, you are correct that it is good manners to support your fellow Republican Senator. I am not criticizing him for that specifically. If that was his only issue, I would give him a pass. If there were a couple of issues like this, I would give him a pass.

    However, there is not a handful of isolated issues like this. There were a lot of them. That is what I am criticizing him for doing. It’s called a consistent track record.

    As Erick explained, and I explain with my characterization, this guy is a Mitch McConnell Team Player. He has good Social Conservative credentials but that is about it.

  • JSobieski

    I am no fan of Romney, but the discussion on Romney (both sides) is insane.

    Romney is a big improvement over Obama, but it is a shame if he is the best we can do.

    Romney is not going to lead the economic agenda if he wins the Presidency. In some ways, we would have a replay of 1994, only less adversarial.

    The Tea Party guys would be constantly pushing Romney and Romney would for the most part acquiesce.

  • JSobieski

    I believe in being realistic about candidates, but your prism is far to status quo.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Because there was no harm.

  • bzip

    An interesting article I first caught on HotGas which sums up exactly what I had been saying before. Santorum in the end isn’t going anywhere, he doesn’t have the infrastructure so he may do very well in Iowa but as log as Perry stays in it will come down to SC as to who becomes the anti-Romney candidate:

    First Thoughts: Why not Santorum?
    http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2011/12/29/why-not-santorum-2/
    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/29/9798048-first-thoughts-why-not-santorum?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    “*** And why his surge might be short lived: But here?s the big reason why Santorum?s surge might be short lived, even if he?s able to maintain it through Jan. 3: Like Gingrich and Cain before him, he lacks the organization and money to compete for the long haul. In addition, he?s viewed as a bit too conservative, especially on social issues (one example: on contraception). Santorum was on ?TODAY? this morning, displaying his conservative credentials. ?What I say I?m going to do is what I?ve done in the past? We?ve got the record to back it up.?

    Some more Perry attacks on Santorum :-) .

    Rick Perry spins Santorum as hungry for earmarks in new radio ad
    http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/29/rick-perry-spins-santorum-as-hungry-for-earmarks-in-new-radio-ad/

    Radio spot from Perry hits Santorum on earmarks
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/29/radio-spot-from-perry-hits-santorum-on-earmarks/

    Game Show
    http://youtu.be/XApvbISkJeE

  • jakeofalltrades

    If you want a 49-state landslide for Obama, keep pushing him.

  • onenationundergod

    And he didn’t even live in NY

  • jakeofalltrades

    And until he turned in the petitions, the issue wasn’t ripe for certification as a declarative action, because he could always have ended up collecting sufficient signatures.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    But there is a difference. Newt has always been loyal to the Republican Party. To a fault he has (especially in this case).

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    You’re still the one on the left.

  • arnwiesner

    We need to face it – the republican party wants Obama to get 4 more years, they want him to be in office when the inevitable blood bath from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan occurs. That is why Newt or Mitt will be the nominee – just another republican hack getting his chance to lose one for the GOP.

  • tyman

    when he was filling in for Boortz yesterday.

    I think this point is really salient: people in Iowa are SO inundated with ads, phone polls, etc. that a lot of people may have stopped answering their phones.

    I haven’t believed the polls either, and I think Perry is really going to surprise folks.

    If Santorum’s going up and the media is reporting it, to me, that is all in keeping with what has gone on this entire cycle. I think Santorum is the last one left of this up and down for each candidate.

    I’m really encouraged with Perry’s SRO crowds and if he avoids NH (I think it would be a waste of time anyway), he needs to head SOUTH!

    Besides, I think he went to NH earlier to test the waters and to practice his ground game a little.

    It has really, really baffled me with Rush and Levin going on about Bachmann and Santorum like they have. It’s like they’re not smart enough to realize that B and S don’t have the organization to remain in the race. With what happened to Bachmann’s defections it looks more and more clear that they are in it for Willard. What does it say when they don’t even TRY to get on the ballot in VA?

    They shouldn’t be taken seriously.

    I think Perry will continue to surprise myself, Wubbies World! People just don’t show up at a rally and spend time to see someone they’re not going to vote for. I know my time is more valuable than that, anyway.

  • carolina

    She is the establishment choice. They have planned this for a long time (just like they have promoted Romney since the early 90′s).

  • http://www.letfreedomringblog.com ggross56

    I wrote here that Art Laffer’s Michael Reagan’s & Thomas Sowell’s endorsements of Newt probably stopped Newt’s slippage:

    http://www.letfreedomringblog.com/?p=11997

    It’ll be crazy the rest of the way.

  • snowshooze

    Because the Statute is a bit of a mess, and a lot of conflict within it.
    I am barely literate… especially in the legal sense…
    But it looks like a can-o-worms to me.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Don’t look at me, Sarah said it.

    The MSM must take us all for idiots if they think a dozen people in a furniture store translates to “momentum” for Santorum! While Perry gets, what, 250? At EACH event? Yesterday Carrie Dann and Arlette Saenz were practically sitting at Perry’s feet taking pictures because there was no other place for them. And according to all these articles coming out of these events, people are changing their minds and declaring for Perry. On Twitter I follow Rachelle Crawford, one of Perry’s Iowa volunteers, and she said she actually converted a Ron Paul supporter–a PAUL supporter!–to supporting Perry. I’ve read of Gingrich supporters changing their minds: they’ll vote for Perry. Michele Bachmann’s campaign is dying; how many of them do you think have realized that and are searching for another candidate to support? As a former Bachmann supporter I can tell you they probably won’t go to Paul (her chairman notwithstanding). OK, some might go to Santorum, but….I doubt Santorum will go much farther than Iowa, even if he does make a good showing. Just ask President Huckabee.

  • westcoastpatriette

    On her recent book tour, Condi adamantly insisted she was not interested at all in running for any office.

  • snowshooze

    If you think this is possible, it would be a very good move on Romney’s part.
    Condi has everything Romney doesn’t. Well… mostly.
    I have been wondering.

  • gekster

    Did anyone ever think that the Perry supporters are at his events and not at home answering the phone to partake in the polls.
    Wouldn’t that lower his poll numbers.

    (half said with tongue in cheek)

  • snowshooze

    No… I don’t think that these early Primaries will seal it either.
    Iowa seems a bit crazy. NH has completely slipped their noodle.
    We just gotta get them behind us.

  • chuckwagon2u

    As I see it there is a total lack of Conservative or Right of Center leadership in the Republican Party . We are headed to a Socialist country and the fight is whose brand will prevail.
    If the Democrats want a slam dunk all they have to do is place Hillary on the ticket so she can slide on in for the 2016 election. Now if the Democrats plan is to turn loose ACORN and OWS on the population Obama and Holder will declare Martial Law. After Martial Law we won’t need to worry about another election but which FEMA holding pen will be available for those who were teaparty supporters,republicans and Christians.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Someone here on RS just said that the people in Iowa have stopped answering their phones. Not sure if I want to spend my Monday listening to phones ring when nobody picks up.

  • jimmyg

    The Judge said that he wanted the following addressed:
    Gibney said he had three issues he would like to see addressed: is requiring state residency for people who collect ballot access signatures a reasonable policing mechanism; whether Perry has waited too long to make a fair claim; and in the event Perry wins, what can the court do about it?

    Perry upon declaring his candidacy in VA was immediately faced with the problem the VA statute presents as to the requirements of petition circulators, therefore he had standing to seek a remedy from the Court.

    The Judge wants to know why Perry waited until after the date for the petitions to be turned in to sue. He could have sued before the date the Petitions were due to be turned in and the court could have fashioned a remedy if it found the statute to be unconstitutional . By sitting on his rights, he has waited too long to assert that the statute may be unconstitutional, as it applies to his situation.

  • acat

    Some people aren’t cut out for legislature. Perry never would have made it to the Senate.

    Some people aren’t cut out for leadership. Santorum wouldn’t have made it through basic training, nor into the PA Governors’ mansion.

    I’ll take the leadership skills over the debating ones.

    Mew

  • Scope

    if the judge was suggesting that the Perry camp contact the others not on the ballot, or if he was suggesting that they contact the Romney and Paul camps to determine if they would have problems with including more names on the ballot. It would be wonderful if the other candidates joined with Perry, but with the animosity between the conservatives all wanting the win, I am not so sure that any unity can be found.

  • jimmyg

    A federal judge in Richmond said today that he wouldn?t stop the printing before the next hearing in the case, scheduled for Jan. 13. He didn?t rule on the merits of Perry?s challenge.

    Perry, a Republican, was informed this month by state party officials that his campaign failed to collect enough signatures to get him on the ballot for the March 6 primary, including 400 from each of the state?s 11 congressional districts.

    Perry filed an emergency motion yesterday seeking a temporary restraining order halting printing of the ballots or requiring his name be placed on them. In a lawsuit filed Dec. 27 in federal court in Richmond, Perry claimed that the state?s requirement that petition circulators be eligible or registered qualified voters in Virginia violates his constitutional rights.

    ?This is probably a case that should have been filed beforehand, not when things went sour,? U.S. District Judge John A. Gibney Jr. said at a hearing in Richmond. He said that regardless of the merits of Perry?s claims, his campaign failed to gather the 10,000 signatures required by state rules.

    ?How can I put Mr. Perry on the ballot in light of the requirement?? Gibney asked Joseph M. Nixon, an attorney representing the Texas governor.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-29/perry-loses-bid-before-u-s-judge-to-stop-virginia-ballots.html

    In that the Judge denied Gov. Perry’s request to stop the printing of the ballots, I think you can see the direction of this case.

  • http://www.imperfectamerica.com imperfectamerica

    but I’m still pulling for a brokered convention…

  • westcoastpatriette

    The case hasn’t even been heard yet. They can always print new ballots or allow write-ins if Perry should win the case. Methinks you want to see Perry lose and it is showing through in your comments.

    Better for you to keep your comments to yourself if you are unable to be objective in your “reporting.”

  • jakeofalltrades

    Last I checked, you can’t sue someone unless they did something to you or imminently will. This petition requirement had not, as far as I know, been enforced before by the VAGOP. Therefore, harm was neither imminent nor certain. He would not have gotten an injunction and the issues weren’t ripe for declaratory relief (for the same reasons). There was also always the possibility that he could have come up with the required number of signatures by the due date.

    Besides – laches is an equitable defense – it’s completely at the court’s discretion. You don’t know which way the judge will go, but if the theory of the case is voters’ rights, he’s probably going to decline the laches defense.

  • JSobieski

    (1) That the preliminary injunction was denied
    (2) A quote from the judge
    (3) A link for the story

    Do you really want RS to become a ostrich-head-in-the-sand website?

    Are we better off knowing what actually happened, or blocking bad news?

  • jakeofalltrades

    Because I’m on the other side of the case and therefore blind to his side.

  • snowshooze

    Just a casual observation.
    I read an entirely different story.

  • pj2012

    hope you’re right.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I see quite clearly, thank you very much.

  • thosjefferson

    Ron Paul will drop back and Santorum will overtake him.. The only question is whether Santorum or Romney wins Iowa overall, but Erick’s right about the long-term impact either way.

    Perry will endorse Romney sometime in February, by which time hopefully most of the RedStaters will finally agree on the nominee and focus on defeating Obama.

  • Scope

    the timeline of events. The RPV today put out a statement that in Oct. 2011 they sent memos to the campaigns that they had decided then that it would take 15,000 signatures in order to meet the “facial determination” rule. They said that when a candidate submits at least 15,000 signatures that the chance of losing 33% of those signatures is minimal. Yet Perry lost in the area of 50% of his signatures which were only 4,000 signatures less then Romney. Why is the number 15,000 the number, arbitrarily decided only in Oct of this year. ? Why did the RPV send out a memo only in Oct. announcing that they had decided that 15,000 signatures was the new non-verifible number, when up until now, 10,000 was the magic number? We read here from someone who has worked on ballot access signature collection that it really isn’t such an easy job. I can also attest to the fact that hiring signature collectors in VA in the past has been problematic, as they are being paid to collect signatures and have no allegence to the candidate they are collecting signatures for. They just want the money. Of course that has happened in many other states as well, and I applaud Perry, even if he doesn’t win his lawsuit, for bringing this matter to light. Hell who knows if some aren’t really ACORN workers trying to hurt the Republican candidates.

  • JSobieski

    is the definition of keeping one’s head in the sand.

    Why not dig into some of the cases that Perry cited and say something positive about the case rather than just telling someone who said something negative to stay quiet?

  • jimmyg

    I knew that he would have a problem when he filed his lawsuit. If you read complaint, Perry asserts that he only collected 6000
    signatures, not the 10,000 he needed to get on the ballot. His lawyers went to work and put forth the theory that he was hobbled in collecting additional signatures based on the restrictions of the VA statutes.

    The problem Perry faces is the doctrine of laches. He should have brought this before a court before the date the petitions were due. He sat on his rights, therefore the court will not give him the relief he is requesting. In other words he sat on his rights, and a court will not help him because of that.

  • Scope

    Cuccinelli is the Atty. to represent the state, which is a part of Perry’s lawsuit. The State Board of Elections is appointed by the sitting Governor, and Cuccinelli would be required to represent them in any lawsuits. Yeah, it gets a little tricky. Cuccinelli has never been known to stay mum on something that he sees as a problem, and having only two options on the ballot is something that burns his butt, as it is unfair to the VA voters. That’s why the VA conservatives love him, and why he is a top notch challenger to Bolling. I suspect that whoever it is that is arguing for the state is there because Cuccinelli probably recused himself. Cuccinelli wasn’t just asking that all the candidates be allowed on the ballot, he suggested that a strong write in challenge be fought in court. Again, that’s why we love him in this state.

  • jimmyg

    Governor Perry has not complained about the situation you have described in your comment.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Equitable relief is discretionary, and so are equitable defenses. A court sitting in equity doesn’t have to do anything.

    Count 2 of the complaint doesn’t tell us much about his specific theory, but I think it’s going to be that the registered circulator requirement does not pass strict scrutiny.

    Let me repeat those last two words:

    strict scrutiny

    His case has a shot…

  • Scope

    Perry in fact submitted almost 12,000 signatures. Only in the area of 6,000 were found to be valid. He lost almost 50% of his signatures in the validation process. Yet the RPV decided if you have 15,000 signatures you are “deemed” safe and do not need verification. Remember in Congress when they “deem” something to be passed with no votes? Yeah, it’s kinda like that.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Likelihood of winning in the ultimate suit being an element of the TRO.

  • jimmyg

    nt

  • Scope

    and can’t seem at this point to get anything about today’s hearing straight. The judge did not stop the printing of the ballots, but what you and the anti-Perry’s neglect to add is that the judge added that the ballots may have to be printed twice. How did Perry lose today when the hearing is set for Jan. 13. There were no rulings today. It was a fact finding hearing between the parties involved. Stop with your rumor machine. You are beclowning yourself with every post on this issue.

  • jimmyg

    I just have an opinion that he filed his lawsuit to late. I may be wrong. I think it is significant that the Judge raised it in his remarks to the litigants.

    As to AG Cucenelli, his office should get out of the lawsuit now, and immediately find independent counsel to represent VA, or that will further delay this lawsuit.

  • jakeofalltrades

    You have to plead your key facts in federal court.

    He’s almost telegraphing that he intends to challenge the 10,000 signature requirement in Count 2.

  • windwaker24

    Hoping Perry does well! I’ll be rooting for him!

  • Scope

    it said 6,000 verified signatures. There is a difference between raw signatures, and verified signatures.

  • jakeofalltrades

    But whether the judge will use his discretion to apply it depends on the theory of the case, which we won’t hear until after the answer and motions for summary judgment are filed.

  • jakeofalltrades

    So I agree.

  • westcoastpatriette

    completely on for me. IOW, if Romney and Paul were held to the same standard as Perry and Gingrich, then it is possible that no one would have had enough qualifying signatures. If Romney’s signatures had been checked and he also lost fifty percent of them, that would leave him at just 8,000–not enough to qualify.

    What a mess.

  • jakeofalltrades

    That’s causing us legal folks familiar with federal pleading practice to scratch our heads. If he intends to use the fact that there were 10,000 signatures, he should have mentioned it. You’re not allowed to surprise the opposing party.

  • Scope

    with this. The Perry lawsuit states 6,000 “valid” signatures. Why should he amend the lawsuit to state the number of signatures collected. Isn’t his case even stronger with stating the number of signatures that were found valid? I understand that he is fighting the rule that signature collectors must be registered Virginia voters, and that he was denied the opportunity to bring in his own team to help with that effort. Look at the Newt charge that a paid signature collector from Virginia submitted 1,500 false signatures. I don’t know if there is any proof of that, but there have been those problems in the past with paying for signatures.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Thank you :) .

  • clowngirl

    Same with Newt’s more positive polling. According to Newsmax, Newt just tied Romney and Ron Paul in a different new poll – but that one doesn’t get the coverage. If you just read the headlines you’d think he was in single digits.

    Still it is concerning to see this from Rasmussen- who I generally deem more accurate than most.

  • jakeofalltrades

    If he didn’t plead 10,000 signatures.

    It gives me the impression that he plans on challenging that requirement as well, since he seemingly doesn’t think he has 10,000 valid ones in the pile (even if the petition circulator residency requirement is found unconstitutional).

    But that’s my impression. The judge appears to think the same thing.

    And just so you know where my heart is – I’m a monthly Perry donor and have been since soon after he got in.

  • Scope

    that the case had to be “ripe” before he could file any lawsuits. “Ripe” meaning there has to be harm done before a case can be brought. Think Obamacare, and those arguing that people have to actually be harmed by Obamacare, before the case can/should be heard.

    Ken Cuccinelli isn’t the Atty. representing the case for the state in court. Another state Atty. representing the state argued the case in court today. Cuccinelli can’t remove himself from the state, he is the Atty. Gen., but he isn’t arguing the case. Jake can correct me if I am wrong on this, but Cuccinelli saying that the state should be more inclusive of candidates, and possibly lowering the requirements, including a strong write in option was a political statement, not a legal one. Cuccinelli has suggested that the VA legislature should resolve this issue, was entirely appropriate, as he has suggested a rule of law solution, with suggesting that the legislature get involved, rather than just asking that everyone just be put on the ballot arbitrarily. Please do a little more homework before you say anything more. Facts are important and crucial to this issue. I know Perry isn’t your guy, but it really helps no one to spread rumors with no factual basis.

  • mccoypauley

    will like a race with two mormons for the GOP.

    I don’t care, but they will. A lot.

    I don’t see anyway the GOP beats Obama tbh. If they pick Romney, there may be 3rd party runs on the right. If they pick Ron Paul, the party won’t support him. If Huntsman wins, Obama will crush him.

    Newt and Rick (I know he is a big favorite around here) aren’t going anywhere.

    I think Obama is going to cruise to success for the opposite reason (no offense) that you guys think Perry still has a chance.

    The “defeat Obama” sentiment is much weaker than it was a year ago. The GOP is going to need a very strong candidate to challenge Obama, I don’t see one in this field except Paul, who will not get the nomination and will probably be driven out of the party, taking 10% or more of the principle over pragmatism fiscal conservatives with him (either not voting or 3rd party).

    I just don’t see Perry or Romney appealing to independents and disaffected Dems. Barry runs with Hillary, and boom, head shot.

    First post, hope I didn’t piss you guys off too much. Hopefully just a little. :)

  • snowshooze

    It doesn’t appear like it would be to difficult for the State to concede to Perry, and possibly the others.
    Again, it looks like Dog Catchers and Presidential Hopefuls are held to the same high standard of 50 Petitioners or Signatories..
    Which I find both amusing and just.
    However I was reading the Democrats were using 5,000 signatures in practice.. I do not know it for fact.
    So that too, could be the objective.
    Could Romney and Paul be gracious?
    no.
    But they may have to be.
    I was looking at it in the context of contacting Gingrich and the rest of the field who thought it unrealistic to attempt getting on the ballot.
    If the bar was set at an unreasonable level, an argument could be made on that point.

  • pj2012

    At this point Santorum’s (with help from Media push) is the flavor of the day. However, I see Perry performing better than expected as he’s drawing SRO crowds (Santorum and Bachmann not) and Perry has steadily moved up in the polls each week which suggests to me his numbers are more solid than either Santorum or Bachmann’s and Newts trending downward. Also from what I hear Perry has a better ground game in place than Newt, Bachmann, or Santorum. Which should give him more of an edge in that respect as well.

    If you look at the current Iowa polling and factor in the margin of error it’s virtually a dead heat in top and 2nd tier so anything could happen. All the polls are small samples LV and some just a one day sampling and with the race so fluid it’s anyone’s guess what the final outcome will be on Jan 3rd.

    As for Iowa’s first in the nation status… it should be relegated to the ash heap of history. Which fits nicely with Erick’s “(B) provides further proof that Iowa is an anomaly undeserving of its first in the nation status;”

  • snowshooze

    Whazzat Jake?
    Oh, and the ” Bright Future in the MSM ” was for Jimmy…lol
    We apparently read the same printed word… but after that I can’t figure out what happened.

  • Scope

    As I said in my comment above, Perry didn’t claim 10,000 valid signatures in his lawsuit. The Perry legal team stated that he collected 6,000 “valid” signatures. Valid is the keyword, no? He submitted almost 12,000 signatures, and he lost half, Isn’t he being honest when they clearly state 6,000 signatures that were found to be valid?

  • jakeofalltrades

    TRO – temporary restraining order

    It’s an injunction you get before trial because you have stop something before it causes harm. Perry tried to stop the ballot printing.

    One of the factors in the granting of a TRO is whether you are likely to win the ultimate lawsuit. If the TRO were granted, it would have meant the judge thought Perry would win the lawsuit (and so there’s no sense wasting money printing up ballots that don’t have Perry on them). The TRO was denied.

    Muddying up the waters a bit is the fact that injunctions are equitable relief, meaning the judge has discretion to decide whether the TRO should be granted. He doesn’t have to if it doesn’t feel right, no matter what the rules say.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    because he has a lot of experience and he has a very compelling plan. The idea of send ing the power back to the states will do well in a general election that is all about how messed up Washington is. Perry has that honest quality to him,and if he had the backing of the whole party he would be a really strong candidate. His record is very good, and once it was the whole party on bored it would be a very different ballgame. They had said Reagan was a dumb and bad candidate too, but once the party got behind him there was a steady march to the White House, and it ended with a land slide. The thing is, by next November we will know how strong the economy is going to be, and if it is getting better Obama will probably win, If it is not which is more likely then we will need a plan much different than any Republicans have ever put forward, which is what Perry is doing with his plan.

  • pj2012

    thanks Bzip for sharing. I like the “Win Iowa” the best, it has a nice tone… a WINNING tone… ;-)

  • votemout2012

    Thanks for the info. Makes no sense to go see a candidate when you support another. Fingers crossed for #1 in IOWA

  • Scope

    Are you referring to the past requirement that only 10,000 signatures had to be submitted in past elections to escape validation, and that the new requirement was set at 15,000 late in the game?

  • votemout2012

    Huntsman really knock them out in the polls but Perry has no chance. Please.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    its all about having people show up for you, which means having workers call and help people get there. That is why the strike team is so important. YOu seem to not have a clue what you are talking about. Perry may do very well in Iowa, I do not know, no one does, but I know the strike force is out there working, and thats the part of Iowa where I live, which is Romney country, he won this part of the state big time in 2008, but thats about it.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    he may have been everywhere, but his ground game is very limited, and I think Bachmann will do better, but I hear people all the time say neither has what it takes to be president.

  • Scope

    How can anyone say that if you submit 15,000 signatures, you loss rate will automatically be less than if you submit 12,000 signatures. This is head scratching for me. There is no logic to it. Why would 12,000 generate a 50% loss rate, but 15,000 doesn’t.

  • http://www.liberty-freedom.org victor_cocchia

    Ron Paul promotion loses all credibility with your implied comment that Ron Paul is the strongest GOP candidate. Ron Paul would make Goldwaters 64 results look like Reagan’s 84 results. He could very well be the first modern candidate to get less than 30% in a two person race. Ron Paul is the single worst candidate the republicans could ever nominate. Republicans would abandon him in droves, Dems would never vote for him and can you imagine how eviscerated he would be after 6 months of the Obama team tearing him up over racism (probably not so deserved) and his open anti-semitism.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    what a load, That is just silly. No Plaats was obligated to support Santorum after being paid, This is much different, and Rick will not beat Romney, that is why Jen R. at WaPo and the National Review have been trying to get him the second look for months now. Santorum is a dead end.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    and I am a precinct captain for my area. It?s been fun, And I get to stand up and try to convince people to vote for Perry.

  • westcoastpatriette

    It doesn’t sound like Perry’s attorneys are focusing on that at all. I just don’t get it. That seems like the most glaring aspect of the injustice to me but I am not an attorney. Sometimes the way they have to split hairs in court is a mangled mystery to me.

  • jakeofalltrades

    So where’s the 10k? Nothing in the complaint says that there are 10,000 signatures anywhere.

    The judge may not have noticed that the vaguely worded complaint could support a challenge of the 10,000 signature requirement, when he asked Perry how he could possibly put his name on the ballot without 10,000 signatures.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    I live in Davenport, and I think that Romney has huge numbers here, but the reason is we have a lot of Democrats and independents. Ron Paul has a devoted group, but they are not getting a lot of help from Pauls past. Santorum just got accused of buying a endorsement, and he is not in position to go far after Iowa, He does not even think he will, his plan all along has been to get back into politics because after he got beat he was dead.

    Santorum is lucky about one thing, he has not had the others candidate and media attack him yet, and he will not have to debate until at least after Iowa.
    We have no idea how he will do under fire, which I think means nothing, but you brought up Perry in debates, which Perry is the only one who has rattled Romney twice, and he would do the same to Obama.

    Debates will not win the general election, and not even the Primary. Gingrich only moved up after Cain fell, and if it was based on debates that would have happened a lot earlier.

  • David123

    Both are solid conservatives.

    I don’t live in Iowa so I’ll see which Rick is still available when I get a chance to vote. If Perry gets out of the race, I sure hope Santorum goes the distance – and vice versa. If nothing else, Rick Santorum is good insurance against Rick Perry getting out.

    Neither Rick is an appeaser.
    Both Ricks have experienced an absence of wealth, and neither is a poster child for a so-called one-percenter.
    Both Ricks have been true to their one and only wife.
    Both Ricks are pro-life because that’s what they believe; they aren’t just saying they’re pro-life to get more votes.

  • Scope

    the judge didn’t stop the printing of the ballots, but he did say that the ballots may have to be printed twice. I am of the opinion that Perry will not win this case, but that the judge is not just willing to throw it out, and will go through the motions to make it appear that it is a valid/serious case. The biggest part of his questioning that struck me was the state vs federal issue, including that Perry is a strong federalist, yet is asking a federal court to intercede on his behalf, after he said that the judges should have term limits. I believe that that is why the judge, a member of the Federalist Society has asked the questions that he has. I’m still developing my thoughts and opinions on the 1st and 14th amendment issues that Perry brought forward in his first lawsuit.

  • heraklios

    Then we can trash him in SC

  • Scope

    An early happy happy birthday to you.

  • jayjayson

    Huntsman was incorrect in his choice of advisors or in not hearing them. The mood out here is for a fight. Most people I know and speal with are willing to accept just about anyone that they think can bring things back a little. Huntsman should have seen that and he could have come out swinging. He should have come out and done like Gingrich. He is a more conservative Gingrich without the bagage. But atlast Huntsman did a “nice” campain. He was a sweet talker when we need a howler. That is his problem and why he will not be the nomiee.

  • jakeofalltrades

    After it wound its way up through Virginia’s court system it would end up in federal court anyway. Why start at the bottom when you can start at the middle?

    Interesting tangent: Virginia doesn’t have to allow itself to be sued by out-of-staters in federal court. It’s playing nice.

  • pj2012

    doesn’t look good for Bachmann so close to the Iowa caucus.

    “He quit,” Bachmann said of former Political Director Wes Enos. Bachmann was speaking on CNN’s “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.” The Ron Paul campaign put out a release noting that he was “recently terminated” by the Bachmann campaign.

    Why is she lying? Is she lying? This is what I never liked about Bachmann and what she did to Perry in the debates… she lies… tells half truths, etc. Rumors of how she treats her people badly. She’s coming across as very desperate in the final hours of her campaign. I don’t see any sympathy for her and her campaign right now… especially if she’s lying.

  • windwaker24

    :)

  • jakeofalltrades

    So Bachmann has not been contradicted and there is no reason to question her integrity. She’s just gullible, that’s all. Normally a trait found more in medicine than law, but then she was a tax lawyer… other kinds of lawyers aren’t that credulous, given the cases they have to deal with.

  • 1bunny

    She repeatedly passed up opportunities to ding Mitt Romney in the debates ? a product, Rollins said, of preserving her options for sharing a ticket with him.
    ?There was some talk early on between her and her husband that she could end up as the vice presidential nominee,? Rollins said.

    Just one of the nuggets in this article on her. She should drop out now but ego will keep her in despite all that has happened. All these candidates that have no money, infrastructure etc to go on past IA will split the vote and all for their own selfish purposes. How about trying to save America instead of yourself.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70950.html

    Hot Air has this info too and links to the above article.

  • mccoypauley

    I really think Paul is the best GOP candidate once you get outside the GOP primary.

    He’s got a national infrastructure in 50 states.

    He’s got proven grass roots support.

    He outflanks Obama on every issue unlike Romney and Newt, who are both progressives.

    In a GOP only election, Paul is a horrible choice. He doesn’t represent the GOP foreign policy view. But among independents, libertarians, dovish conservatives and disaffected Dems, he’s a real hit. If the GOP fell in line behind Paul, he could steamroll Obama.

    Sometimes I think you guys are so anti-Paul, you’re not able to understand why he is doing well right now, and what assets he has that the other GOP candidates do not.

    Without those Ron Paul people, and a candidate who really speaks to disaffected Dems, I don’t see a GOP candidate beating Obama, who might have the best electoral hustle since Reagan in 1980.

    And for the record, I’m a bit of a tory anarchist. I am definitely not pro-Obama.

  • pj2012

    That’s not a term I’ve heard in describing Bachmann. She doesn’t come across as gullible to me at all.

  • katem

    I don’t think it’s accurate to say that Huntsman will “largely be bypassing South Carolina” assuming he does well in N.H. Huntsman already has some good endorsements in S.C. (an Atty General, former AG and Gov. Carroll Campbell’s family). He mentioned these endorsements on the O’Reilly show last night when questioned about his S.C. strategy. I think he said one of the people supporting him there is a tea party leader. The field will probably narrow after Iowa. If that happens and Huntsman does well enough in N.H., then Huntsman should become the conservative alternative to Romney in S.C. and beyond. The good news is that Huntsman is an electable conservative, unlike some of the others.

  • snowshooze

    Is there a lot of radioactive isotopes in the geology there?
    Or maybe it is the Stephen King stuff where the dog buried in the Indian Graveyard comes back to life, comes home….but is all wrong…can’t remember the title.

  • snowshooze

    Keep up the good work!
    It is so hard to share any time in my situation… I have no idea how I could do it.
    If I did do it, I would have to get paid enough to carry my overhead… and as a pitch man… I ain’t worth it.

  • jakeofalltrades

    and the Iowans are drinking it.

  • snowshooze

    And I mean a small step.

  • snowshooze

    But a brokered convention can be purchased.
    We know who has the money.

  • snowshooze

    Misplaced trust.

  • snowshooze

    Big brass ones. He doesn’t have anything to start with.
    But I don’t think this is the case.
    Michelle sounds pretty miffed.

  • acat

    Wonder what her severance package looks like?

    Sad, really. I had hoped Michele’d come out of this with some name recognition and a war chest to go after Klobuchar. Now, I want her to go bake cookies.

    Mew

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    ;) ;) ;)

  • jakeofalltrades

    heh

  • pj2012

    maybe… I just don’t see it.

  • snowshooze

    With all them kids..
    I had an Aunt, she raised so many kids aside of her own, and most the neighborhood kids… In Moose Pass Alaska…
    Her reputation lives on… many years beyond her…
    She could turn out the best cookies, fudge, candies…
    Really mind blowing stuff. You cannot purchase product at this level… anywhere.
    She sould have quit Clerking at Estes store and started a bakery.
    Ah… another legend in my family.

  • snowshooze

    They generally have another reality they deal in.
    I cannot explain it….
    But they BELIEVE in honor…that Unicorns exist.. that good triumphs over evil every time…
    And a friend, is a friend forever.
    Without them, I’d just cut my throat and be done with it all.

  • nancysabet

    Rick fricking Santorum now??? Depressing indeed. I don’t believe in these polls. I am still hoping for Perry to surge.

  • snowshooze

    nt

  • jimmyg

    I would have responded earlier but I had to go out. The purpose of today’s Court hearing was for the Court to decide whether to act on Gov. Perry’s application for a TRO. Gov. Perry sought to prevent the printing of the ballots until the court held a full hearing on the issues raised by Gov. Perry in his complaint. The Judge denied Gov. Perry’s application for a TRO, the Commonwealth is free to print the ballots without Gov. Perry’s name on them prior to the next court date.

    As to my comment about AG Cuccinelli, what was not clear to you, when I said AG Cuccinelli should withdraw from representing the Commonwealth, I meant his office should no longer represent the Commonwealth. The Judge raised the issue of AG Cuccinelli’s comments and the possible conflict those comments raise. The AG should have kept his comments to himself, but rather gave an opinion which was widely reported. He should have realized that his office would likely be placed in the position of defending the statutes which he commented on and are now being attacked by Gov. Perry as unconstitutional. His comments put at issue as to whether his office can zealously represent the Commonwealth in this matter.

    What happened in Court, and the Judges comments are factual, and not my opinion, nor are they rumor. I have been on these boards for years, and have never insulted anyone, or twisted or made up facts because I disagreed with them. You make it a habit to do so at least once a day since you came back on this board from your self imposed exile.

  • nancysabet

    and he will make it in Iowa. I just can’t believe that voters would not be able to see who is the best qualified for nominee!!! I honestly believe people will come to their senses, and against all odds including media biases, and vote for Gov. Perry.

  • nancysabet

    Dr. Sklaroff, I will be making phone calls.

  • snowshooze

    In Home Valley Washington… into the Columbia River..
    And Portland Oregon used it for drinking water.
    But really… we had a septic tank at our homestead.
    Others did not.

  • snowshooze

    I really enjoy the Horserace..along with the entire site.

  • snowshooze

    I really enjoy the Horserace..along with the entire site.

  • snowshooze

    I really enjoy the Horserace..along with the entire site.

  • snowshooze

    But I guess I can go with it.
    Ain’t sucking up.
    But I view the site as an asset, and a service to us all.

  • annie54

    for Perry’s ads. They are never same-o, same-o. I like to see and hear Perry because of that. He is our only believable candidate.

    We must pray for him.

  • annie54

    and hope you keep us updated. I’ve signed up for making phone calls. Good luck to you.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    As y’all awaken and skim through these postings, please ponder whether these aggregate thoughts resonate, recognizing the ongoing intent to ensure RS maintains its cutting-edge candor.

    ***

    Rick Perry’s new radio-ad…

    …overtly exposes Santorum’s profligate ways.

    In PA, Guzzardi and I have “lived” his rapid polling decline [as people got to know him], which he has posted here and elsewhere…
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/perry-hitting-santorum-on-earmarks-on-radio-109020.html
    …and it is vital that this message be disseminated ASAP.

    ***

    So, the first take-away is that Perry’s campaign has again demonstrated a “nimble” capacity to respond to the evolving landscape; he has both the message and the resources, and has demonstrated the necessary boldness, repeatedly.

    This segues into the understandable impatience of Perry-supporters [Moe Lane dissuaded me from using the term "Perry-bots" because it suggests automaticity when, actually, it could convey simply a loose alignment of like-minded individuals...so I'll stick with the longer-term, unless a better suggestion arises..."Perry-Posse"?].

    What must be emphasized is that this is a marathon [not sprint] and we are playing musical-chairs [not king-of-the-mountain]. Iowa helps to eliminate, not to anoint; New Hampshire helps to shock, not to reassure. And then 48 other states weigh-in, during upcoming MONTHS.

    ***

    So, the second take-away is that the first two victims of “take-away” will be Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman; within a fortnight, there will be a narrowing of the putative standard-bearers for the anti-Mitt clientele.

    As Paul rapidly descends to his 10%–tithe, the next victim will potentially become The Newt [assuming nothing hinders his widely-recognized, totally-justified free-fall]. He had his moment-in-the-sun–and he’s great on many issues, particularly foreign policy–but anyone who wants to arrest judges so that they can be forced to be x-examined on their “opinions,” this notion stabs the separation-of-powers doctrine in the heart.

    Who’s left, assuming Santorum’s bounce doesn’t fade over the weekend? Mitt and Perry [and predictable slides from The Newt and Santorum] with the Paulites tossing spitballs from the periphery [sorry about the mixed-metaphor]. Candidly, as a pro-Perry “bot” [using this term only to be self-descriptive, Moe], I like these odds.

    ***

    So, the third take-away is that this reality-show of political-survival indeed favors the individual who can gradually/realistically accumulate support prior to SC from those in the TEA [Taxed Enough Already] Party Movement and the Evangelical-Crowd [both of which Mitt has aggressively spurned].

    Four years ago, I liked the fact that Mitt had sufficient resources to be independent; two years ago, I liked the fact that Mitt endorsed Toomey. Yet, the former has created aloofness, and the latter was punctuated by his [now disproven] answer to my focused-query regarding his rationale for RomneyCare ["federalism"...AND..."candidly, if I hadn't signed it, the legislature threatened to pass a single-payor system"].

    And I’m not alone; one could anticipate that angry/alienated TPM activists could [1]–spur a fringe-party, and/or [2]–stay home in disgust, no matter the level of hatred of BHO. Me, I’m a committeeman, so I’d work for the nominee [although, as stated earlier, I'd resign before helping Paul]. Thus, I consider myself to be a barometer of the reaction of the GOP-electorate to the passing scene.

    ***

    So, the final take-away is that the “horserace” snapshots are useful, but they must be kept within a larger context that appreciates multiple-trends and the Talmudic ability to project future events [the definition of "wisdom"].

    I am optimistic for Perry, because Perry is nimble [#1], the field is narrowing [#2] and pragmatists will increasingly gravitate to recognizing that, just in 1980, an unpopular POTUS with a disastrous Foreign Policy and an out-of-touch domestic track-record CAN/MUST be defeated by a philosophically-conservative guy who the PMSNBC-bots incessantly label as “stupid.”

    {I will cross-post this entry onto the Santorum-site and then cross-post comments on that site, here.}

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    ?is dangling and, thus, necessitates articulation.

    Already discussed is the assumption that Perry has staying-power [supra]; already discussed is the alternative message that we should elect Mitt so that he can simply sign conservative legislation [my son's argument, detailed on prior weeks]. How might these forces be rectified, noting that Perry has addressed each Iowa constituency carefully/methodically during recent weeks?while Mitt has eschewed visits.

    ***

    In this regard, prepping for my 300-second speech to an Iowa caucus on Tuesday-p.m., I believe I can cite from ?Fed Up!? with abandon including, in particular, Perry?s justifiable screeds FOR federalism/firmness/faith and AGAINST DC-spending/dissing-?American Exceptionalism?/values-erosion.

    Perry can attract TPM-activists [recall the Hannity-event, often reprised on RS] and certainly can channel the Evangelicals. Yet, looking towards the General Election, might the social-agenda be employed by the D?s to persuade the Indies to remain loyal to BHO?

    I ?tested? these ideas during numerous conversations, prominently a few hours ago with my D-cousin, who articulated with precision many concepts that his putative-allies have failed to convey. As we recognize the vacuity and danger inherent in BHO, he was depicting global economic trends. And as we recoil against lies/deceit of D-leaders, he was conveying the traces of the social-motivation that animated many of us, decades ago, in our political youths, such as myself, Watergate-freaks all.

    ***

    Thus, as we rail against the elitist/statist pontifications from the POTUS, we must confront our motivations and [potentially] redouble our efforts to achieve tangible outcomes. We must maintain a reality-basis, even as we assert our conclusions. Those who despise BHO [and what re-election would portend] must not be deterred from manifesting that mood, within 11 short months.

    Certain of the ACORN-electorate, they will vote for their ?Obama-Money? [even if they already learned behaviorally of its transience]. Certain of the ideological-untouchables, they will vote for his next SCOTUS appointment [even if he/she won't recuse from dealing with an issue that he/she had assessed as Solicitor General].

    No, our targets must be the Soccer-Moms, the educated swing-voter, the individual who can be reminded of the inherent danger of Big Government. For whatever line Perry draws on the abortion -issue or DOMA, he can be recognized as mirroring the fact that the pro-Choice movement and the GLBT-tribe SURVIVED ?W? unscathed.

    Recognizing that social-issues can animate [as Santorum has aggressively demonstrated] does not entail blind adherence to their potential global application; the ?Libertarian? in most Republicans will forestall any such effort to amend the Constitution on the state-level. On the other hand, proclaiming the existence of [and manifesting the forces behind] moral fiber, this is what can be conveyed in an unabashed fashion during 2012.

    We will be untouchable if this is accomplished with clarity; we can then go about the business of undoing as much of the damage of the prior four years as possible. Although I disagree with those who feel all SCOTUS opinions are ?activist? when the surface is scratched, I agree with those who harbor a certain cynicism about the reliability of politicians. That?s why a Perry Administration [which would try to make D.C. as irrelevant as possible to the daily-lives of Americans] would be uniquely desirable.

    Now, Let?s Go Get ?Em!

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    1. It is NOT true that we should abide by any dismissive posture, such as those noted supra related to alleviating angst ["The fix is in...so relax and have a drink."] or projecting an idealized future ["Need To Win 2-3 More Congressional Cycles w/Fresh Tea Partiers"]. We can?t assume time is on our side, as justifiable as that perspective may be when observing Perry?s status; the other side can continue to accrue support and attempt to bull-doze reason.

    2. As has often been the state, Gekster said it all, ?diagnostically? ["The question is, are we gonna live and die by the results. I don?t think so."]. I would amend this posture by noting earlier comments regarding the import of Iowa as a screener. We will live with the positive outcome and allow other campaigns to gracefully die in the process.

    3. Rather than directly critique many of the prior comments, their import has been integrated herein [in these 3 postings] because mainstreaming what may have been intended [although it risks "mind-reading"] allows for the generation of a cogent set of principles. Surely, many are derived from prior viewpoints that some might perceive [falsely] as biases [because they have been assiduously referenced], But others must be predicated on shared-knowledge to maintain/enhance credibility.

    4. During multiple conversations with anyone other than a BHO-acolyte, I have sensed minimal resistance to overt expressions of Perry?s unique favorables, notiwthstanding the news black-out that has been the subject of considerable lamentation.consternation/frustration.

    ?This was palpable, personally, a few days ago when Dana Perino discussed the Bush-?41 ?endorsement? of Romney [F&F, 7 a.m.] and claimed that the only reason the Bushies had supported KBH was that Perry had said he wasn?t running for re-election. I posted this point on RS within minutes of hearing that quote?and finding a contemporaneous news-article that documented that KBH had initiated an ?exploratory? committee promptly after her 2008 re-election. Putting the ?lie? to this statement spoke volumes about what FNC has been promulgating. And a prior posting that noted Romney?s partial ownership of a company that partially owns Salem Communications, this completed the loop regarding why there has been a ?Mitt-off? approach towards Mitt during this entire election-cycle.

    5. Adjuran queried rhetorically: ?How did ?the establishment? fix the race? Secret deals? A ?vast center-right wing conspiracy??? The answer is now painfully obvious; by playing-up faults and/or by failing to report strengths, FNC may be [almost as guilty] of conveying its ?leanings? as has PMSNBC. Watching all 3 regularly [including CNN], one notes a snowball-effect when projecting trends but, ultimately, a conjoined reality sets-in. This inevitability may be pesky, but it imparts/enhances ?hope? for healthy ?change.?

    6. As has often been the state, Acat said it all, ?therapeutically? ["This wave needs to be different from the Reagan Revolution or the Contract With America. We can?t stop with just ?re-taking D.C.?, we need to plan on holding it until relieved? by the next generation."]. We will not win by applying ?attrition? to the Federal Bureaucracy, and Perry has the wherewithal to refuse to sign regulation-based legislation. He can FORCE the states to fulfill their Federalism-based responsibilities, thereby FORCING people to rediscover their entrepreneurial spirits.

    7. [As the Sabbath approaches, I will "rest" on this latter point.] Overall conclusion: ?Rah! RAh! RAH! Go TEAM GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!?

  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    …mine approaches very soon here.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …based on too many unforced errors [like arresting judges], notwithstanding his support for the Individual Mandate [which he has YET to discount].

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …because I’m going to unleash Guzzardi into this fray.

    HE was an AVID supporter of Toomey…YEARS ago…and notes that Specter didn’t have to support Specter!

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and will speak @ separate caucuses.

  • westcoastpatriette

    Newt was just interviewed on Fox and stated that he thought that all of the candidates have been invited by the court to join the suit and that they were all considering doing so. Stated that it was a legal matter that his attorneys were deciding for him.

    Interesting development. Newt stayed focused on the voters being prevented from voting for their choice of a candidate in the primary.

  • JSobieski

    The choice is to actually have something validated in detail, or if you surpass a specific threshold nobody takes a detailed look

    Perry had a high loss rate because (I believe) he used some out of state people to gather signatures, and all of the resulting signatures were thrown out.

  • JSobieski

    and everything to do with the people gathering the signatures.

    That fact coupled with the high loss rate lead me to conclude that Perry used ineligible people to gather signatures.

  • Scope

    I think it was reported on CNN this morning that Newt was considering joining in with Perry’s VA lawsuit, but has not yet decided. I also read that Newt is planning on leaving Iowa immediately after the caucuses. It appears that Newt is lowering his expectations on how well he will do in Iowa and NH. The hearing is on Jan. 13th, which is after both contests. Newt may think that VA doesn’t matter if he does poorly in the early states, so why bother spending the money on legal fees. I would say that Bachmann and Santorum may have the same thought processes. They may be out after Iowa. I don’t think Huntsmann cares, because he will probably be out after NH. So there is no one else left to join with Perry. I say this because the Bachamnn, Santorum and Gingrich campaigns are broke, and without a strong showing in Iowa and/or NH, many of their supporters, and those donating will dry up to nothing. Doesn’t advertising get more expensive in SC, and very expensive in Fla?

    It would be really really great if Perry wins Iowa, for more than one reason. It would smack the VA party insiders in VA who are still running around saying how he is poorly organized, and not presidential material. I believe Perry is going to have to win without VA, as the RPV, the State Elections Board and most recently, some state legislatures are all saying that nothing is going to change, he will not be on the ballot. I promise they have dug in their heels against getting him on the ballot for any reason.

    I read another piece about the VA ballot mess with having only two options. VA is an important swing state, and Obama needs a win in VA to win re-election. With only Romney and Paul on the ballot, there won’t be much money spent in the state by any other campaigns, and the voter enthusiasm amongst the voters won’t exist. I can’t believe how many I am reading are going to stay home on primary day. The RPV will have a very hard time getting volunteers and money as many, such as myself feel very disenfranchised. It’s sad, but some see this as one of the most stupid and destructive things that any GOP group could have brought onto the party as a whole, but still, they are dug in with Romney and Paul.

  • snowshooze

    Yes, that is my read.
    Perry sent his crew in. Who better?
    Now I will go see Newt’s comments, it sounds like he believed the Judge put out an invite to join the case with Perry, rather than just seek input from Paul and Romney.
    My immediate impression was he was granting the opportunity for a complete and wholly inclusive review… possibly challenging many points of the law as in breaking it wide open for all.
    That may be a bit optimistic.

  • jakeofalltrades

    It’s more work for them otherwise.

    I’m guessing he wants all the candidates – not just Paul and Romney.

  • snowshooze

    Is it available? Can you dredge up a link?
    Thanks,
    Mark

  • westcoastpatriette

    The interview was done by Jon Scott at about 9:55 a.m. on Fox. I think that is the Fox & Friends show and Jon Scott must have been filling in because he is not a regular on that show. I went to the Fox website and could not find a clip of the interview. I’ll keep searching and post if I can find it.

  • snowshooze

    I tried all manner of searches… no luck.

  • westcoastpatriette

    two days before Perry’s case will be heard. Theoretically, they have the power to craft emergency legislation that would allow–at a minimum–write-ins on the ballot for this primary election. If VA had any respect for the voters of their state, they would do just that.

    If I lived in VA I would be so ticked about this.

  • JSobieski

    The Perry lawsuit has two Counts

    Count I is a claim based on Buckley v. ACL that challenges the validity of the “petition circulator” requirements. This is a serious claim.

    Count II is in my view a throw away claim that challenges the constitutionality of the 10,000 signature requirement. Claim II argues too much in the sense that the logic of Claim II would overturn ANY signature requirement. Claim II will almost certainly fail.

    If you want to read Buckley v ACL, use the following link
    http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/97-930.ZO.html

    The Buckley case involved the context of a ballot initiative (i,e, voter drive propositions) not a candidate seeking higher office.

    If Perry succeeds it will be because the Judge finds the difference to be irrelevant.

    If Perry fails, it will be because the Judge concludes that difference to be meaningful.

    The key test is:
    “We therefore detail why we are satisfied that, as in Meyer, the restrictions in question significantly inhibit communication with voters about proposed political change, and are not warranted by the state interests (administrative efficiency, fraud detection, informing voters) alleged to justify those restrictions.”

    There is some interest in limiting the number of candidates on a ballot to a reasonable number (do you want to have 100 listed candidates)? States like CA and NH go that route, but VA has some ability to choose differently.

    The circulator qualification restrictions are designed to prevent out of state paid operatives from dominating the political process. The purported state interest is that political activities within the state actually be from the state.

    Bottom Line Predictions:

    Count I: 50/50 at best chance of Perry prevailing on this count. With a more liberal judge, the % would be higher.

    Count II: Virtually 0% of winning.

  • Scope

    According to the R VA House Majority Leader Kirk Coxwas asked what the chances of the legislature intervening in the ballots issue was, his reply “zero to none.”

    There have been some varying ideas as to how all the candidates could be made an option to the voters in the VA primary. We would be very happy if we could just have a write in option. Apparently none have even been considered, and won’t be. I’ve said that the Republican party insiders in VA have dug in their heels, and nothing will be changed. This should make it more than a little obvious to everyone that the party apparatus in the state has what they wanted, Mitt Romney on the ballot, and the rest of the field cleared. Sorry, I don’t consider Paul a part of the field. There is one elitist idiot who is very aware of the inside shennanigans here, that writes for many of the so-called conservative websites, who already yesterday said that all VA conservatives need to take a second look at Mitt Romney. There you have it.

  • westcoastpatriette

    How are the people reacting to all of this? Is there any sign of a Tea Party rebellion or major pushback from inside the Party that you are aware of? Talk about insider establishment Republicans giving the middle finger to everyone outside their power-circle.

    Petty politics at its worst.

  • sunshinek67

    Is the end-all solution to this debacle of disenfranchisement that Romney walks away with a large proportionate share of the VA delegates? Can citizens protest? Supreme Court? Nothing?

  • sunshinek67

    he has to use $$ and the corrupt establishment to push his serial political losing career over the threshold. The only thing voters can do if reserve their votes elsewhere. Wonder how that is going to play in the general. huh. Time will tell. Believe that God is above it all. #faith

  • sunshinek67

    So what is a socon to do in Iowa? lol. Vander Plaat, the shepherd, leading his sheep to drought stricken pastures, Rick one & done Santorum. Gingrich can go longer though, past Iowa, name recognition alone….and of course all of those super intellectual books that he writes and sells along the way. ;)

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    good

  • pj2012

    “I have finally decided that my one vote, if I were to exercise that right, would go to Rick Perry. His executive experience in running Texas is what pushed him over the winning line for me.” http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/whos-simon-conway-backs-rick-perry/

    Not bad… right?

  • bzip

    I read that, Simon Conway backs Rick Perry. That was good.

    I have been following these two folks (Ben and Arlette) on Twitter, they seem to be keeping up with Perry’s campaign and have great updates with photo’s. Ben Philpott has some really nice live updates and photo’s of Perry’s events if anyone wants to check it out.

    https://twitter.com/BenPhilpottKUT
    and
    https://twitter.com/#!/ArletteSaenz/

  • pj2012

    I’ll try to post pics here…

    Waiting for Rick Perry to arrive at Main St Cafe in Council Bluffs. IA voters out in full force 1 week before caucus

    pic.twitter.com/92YbMS5U

    Perry as he walks through very crowded event in Cedar Rapids: wow they must be selling some coffee in here”

    pic.twitter.com/tuC4X57a

    Last event of the day for . Attacks on insiders and Rick Santorum once again. Maybe close to 200 people.

    pic.twitter.com/xaJ2gMib
  • pj2012

    Okay this is just silly… Santorum says “Rulings like Lawrence v. Texas would be a good thing to know if you are running for president,” Come on… is this guy for real? Yeah… that’s one of my top list of things I want MY president to know, for sure.

    He takes a gotcha question and uses it to beat Perry over the head… Really? Does anyone think Santorum remembered or even new about this case before now?

  • carolynr

    NT

  • superpatriot

    It seems very likely at this point that Romney and Paul will take the top 2 spots in Iowa.

    Who do you guys see grabbing the 3rd spot??

    I think big contenders will be Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum.

    Although I’m primarily a Perry supporter, I hop Gingrich also gets it because this would give him great momentum heading into to SC and Florida. a

    Any thoughts??

  • snowshooze

    I don’t think either are Man enough to do the right thing.
    It would be an absolute howl if there were NO qualified Candidates at all for the Virginia Republican Party.
    I’d laugh until I puked.

  • sunshinek67

    all the others combined. Vets, Medal of Honor recipients, Bobby Jindal. Good quality people that throw their support behind Governor Perry for reasons of character and record, not political and phony.

  • sunshinek67

    …. :)

  • carolynr

    If you want to know how someone will govern…then look at the record.
    WOW…simple…huh. Can we afford another mistake? Not this time. So…let’s look at the record.

    Washington DC has not done a very good job at anything. Anything that they run is either bankrupt or going bankrupt. Look at the record…if those people in DC were so great…we wouldn’t be bankrupt. This isn’t a party thing either…both parties have taken lots of $$$..including Porky Santorum who says it is his duty because it says so in the Constitution…rich…huh…on our dime.

    Bachmann – No bill sponsored in her name. Did lead the Tea Party Caucus for the House. Otherwise…nothing of value. Little untruths here and there…yes…pork…especially for her husband.
    No executive experience of any magnitude.

    Huntsman – Should have billed himself a Conservative from the beginning because he governed that way in Utah. He might be a sleeper but I doubt it.

    Gingrich…Lots of ideas that GO NO WHERE FAST and they are contradictory. Too much baggage and he plays both sides of the field on issues. His idea on immigration..Hatfields and McCoys.

    Paul – God help us all. The man has some good ideas…but the whole thing is not just about the Fed (although this is a mega problem) and foreign aide. Where is his plan.

    Santorum – Straw man for Romney. Took too much pork home and justifies it because of the Constitution. He’s got the Evangelical vote because he played the God and Ethanol cards at the same time. He’s a spender and he backs the wrong people..Arlen Spector.

    Romney…Look at the man’s record. God..one contradiction after the other. Lies told during the debates. MSM made a big deal about Perry’s oops…wherein he told the truth…but lies Romney told…they wouldn’t even go there. I caught him numerous times. BTW…article in Politico about his Coming To Jesus Moment on Abortion that had a lag time of two years that he kinda of forgot about.

    Perry – As you all know…been to Dallas. Huge population growth, lots of new business…tech mostly, high end housing, infrastructure growing AGAIN…and new report out says that Texas is responsible for 62+% of new jobs for Obama’s term. Pro-life, pro-gun, state’s rights, JOBS…JOBS…JOBS…JOBS. Low taxes. Good healthcare plan in Texas…tort reform, loser pays..AND the 13th largest economy in the world…and they balance their budget and the Congress meets every other year. So…that’s the record.

    I’m going to post on my own line…but there is something to consider. Oh…reason Santorum is ahead in the polls with Perry…Ethanol endorsement to Iowa…oh what money won’t buy.

  • carolynr

    If you want to know how someone will govern…then look at the record.

    Washington DC has not done a very good job at anything. Anything that they run is either bankrupt or going bankrupt. Look at the record…if those people in DC were so great…we wouldn’t be bankrupt. This isn’t a party thing either…both parties have taken lots of $$$..including Porky Santorum who says it is his duty because it says so in the Constitution…rich…huh…on our dime.

    Bachmann – No bill sponsored in her name. Did lead the Tea Party Caucus for the House. Otherwise…nothing of value. Little untruths here and there…yes…pork…especially for her husband.
    No executive experience of any magnitude.

    Huntsman – Should have billed himself a Conservative from the beginning because he governed that way in Utah. He might be a sleeper but I doubt it.

    Gingrich…Lots of ideas that GO NO WHERE FAST and they are contradictory. Too much baggage and he plays both sides of the field on issues. His idea on immigration..Hatfields and McCoys.

    Paul – God help us all. The man has some good ideas…but the whole thing is not just about the Fed (although this is a mega problem) and foreign aide. Where is his plan.

    Santorum – Straw man for Romney. Took too much pork home and justifies it because of the Constitution. He’s got the Evangelical vote because he played the God and Ethanol cards at the same time. He’s a spender and he backs the wrong people..Arlen Spector.

    Romney…Look at the man’s record. God..one contradiction after the other. Lies told during the debates. MSM made a big deal about Perry’s oops…wherein he told the truth…but lies Romney told…they wouldn’t even go there. I caught him numerous times. BTW…article in Politico about his Coming To Jesus Moment on Abortion that had a lag time of two years that he kinda of forgot about.

    Perry – As you all know…been to Dallas. Huge population growth, lots of new business…tech mostly, high end housing, infrastructure growing AGAIN…and new report out says that Texas is responsible for 62+% of new jobs for Obama’s term. Pro-life, pro-gun, state’s rights, JOBS…JOBS…JOBS…JOBS. Low taxes. Good healthcare plan in Texas…tort reform, loser pays..AND the 13th largest economy in the world…and they balance their budget and the Congress meets every other year. So…that’s the record.

    I’m going to post on my own line…but there is something to consider. Oh…reason Santorum is ahead in the polls with Perry…Ethanol endorsement to Iowa…oh what money won’t buy.

  • sunshinek67

    (most of the time). Here is her latest take:

    Governor leaves a good impression: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/30/9839836-trying-to-close-the-deal-perry-leaves-a-good-impression?ocid=twitter

  • carolynr

    Pardon the pun

  • carolynr

    I just posted my two cents on the site. thx.

  • pj2012

    lol… good one…

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Uh-huh. And this is SOOOO critical to running for President. You have to know EVERY case that EVER went through EVERY level of the courts. I mean, not knowing the details of Lawrence vs. Texas is SOOO much more important than, say, endorsing Arlen Specter, or supporting No Child Left Behind, or sending money to some nothing-bridge instead of to the people of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

    Yes Mr. Santorum, we’re so convinced of your superior abilities and experience over that dumb Texan.

    *rolls eyes*

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Departments that should be eliminated is vastly more important.

    Understanding that the Federal Government doesn’t solve problems, it creates them would also rank way, way above Lawrence v. Texas.

    Perry knows those things by heart, from bitter experience in dealing the Fed as both LtGov and Gov of Texas.

    Santorum has never found a problem that Government intervention, and my money, couldn’t improve.

    No thanks.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    candidates pander to everyone.

  • pj2012

    According to Politico it may, but then again…

    “The overall trajectory of Gingrich?s campaign is still unmistakably downward, as a morning NBC-Marist poll showed him essentially tied for third now in Iowa, with Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. In order to even have a shot at third, though, Gingrich needed to arrest his collapse. He needed what the professionals call a ?moment,? and he got one. Whether it does him any good, we?ll have to wait and see.”

    Okay… a moment, maybe. Will it stop the bleeding in Iowa? I think it shows Newts softer side… but, it’s not a game changer. Well… that’s my opinion anyway. See for yourself…

  • Scope

    As to any Tea Party pushback in VA, there is none that I’ve heard of. Unfortunately the major Tea Party groups in the state are all in the Ron Paul camp. That is why there is every real possibility that Paul just may win VA. Just as they have descended in Iowa by the bus loads, they will do the very same here. Feeling comfortable that Ron Paul will not ultimately win the nomination, it is going to be justice against the VA party insiders if Paul wins VA.

  • sunshinek67

    Perrymentum!