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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Second Coming of John McCain

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  January 3rd, 2012 at 11:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Objectively on the ground here, it is doggone cold. Also, it seems the Santorum surge has ended, or at least stalled. On CNN last night, Mary Matalin noted that a number of people unconnected to campaigns say the surge is stalled out.

Image descriptionThe caucuses will be tonight. For years the media has treated Iowa as the Super Bowl, but this year, with proportional delegates, it really is more the pre-season. This could go on a while. My guess is that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are first and second. Rick Santorum or Rick Perry will probably be third. Santorum because of his late surge. Perry because of organization.

If Iowans want to see the second coming of John McCain, they’ll support Rick Santorum like they supported Huckabee and we’ll get a moderate named Romney who won’t really fight in the general election.

As Dan McLaughlin notes, if Iowans hand third place to Rick Perry, they’ve not only given him a guaranteed life line (one he’d probably get in fourth place too), but they have also ensured he will be the GOP nominee.

I’ll be bringing you updates throughout the day from the ground in Des Moines, IA both here and on radio from 9am to 1:00 p.m. ET. You can listen here. Tonight, I’ll be on CNN starting at 6pm ET.

Let the games begin.

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COMMENTS

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  • TSquared

    The biggest loser for that to happen would be all the polls.

  • tdawg89

    are supposed to be so politically intelligent. If that was the case, wouldn’t they see that a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney? How hard is it to understand that Santorum has zero organization anywhere else but Iowa? Don’t even get me started on money.

  • Tbone

    In reality, does it really matter where nutjob Paul finishes? No. He won’t be the nominee.

    Does it really matter where Santorum finishes? No. He can’t come close to raising enough money to move forward.

    Newt is fading faster than the family photo in “Back to the Future”.

    Perry just has to hang in and end up facing Romney one on one in the bigger states with the 75% who don’t want Romney falling in behind him.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’d be *better* for him if he got at least third in SC. With the Ron Paul effect, third is really second, and fourth is really third.

    But I expect Perry to try in SC anyway, assuming he hasn’t spent all his money in IA.

  • jrfromdallas

    that the good people in Iowa are supporting Santorum over Perry. What Executive experience does Santorum have that Perry doesn’t blow away?? NONE! If they vote to give Santorum a bigger share of the Caucus tonight I will never take Iowa seriously again. C’mooooon people!!

  • TSquared

    is a boon for Romney.

    Only Newt and Perry have the money and organization at this point to have a shot at taking out Mitt. Santorum’s – now likely – continued presence will now make it more difficult for either Newt or Perry to stop Romney.

    There’s less than 3 weeks until S.C.. Is it possible for Santorum to experience a large enough fund-raising surge to be competitive? That would be miraculous wouldn’t it?

    A lot can happen in the next couple of weeks and the picture may look a lot different by then. Iowa may quickly become just a footnote.

    Santorum’s surge has ended? Anymore details on that?

  • MOlsen6

    We shall see. Iowa caucus polling is notoriously unreliable. Secondly, the perspective of the candidates is changing by the day and even by the hour, and polls can’t hope to track what they can not monitor. This is why real people vote, and pundits make commentary based upon results, expected results, desired results, or even imaginary results.

    I agree, Ron Paul will not be the nominee, despite his hardcore following. I would also be really surprised if Rick Santorum would be the nominee, because I doubt his ability to fundraise to compete in South Carolina, Florida or Super Tuesday(s). But Santorum does pass the “smell test”. Perry passes the “smell test”, and has money, as does Romney. For me, Newt does not pass the “smell test”. Huntsman also passes, but I don’t see a viable path to the nomination for him at least at the moment. If Romney wins Iowa, he is likely to win New Hampshire, and I think it is over. If Perry does well enough in Iowa, he can live again to win in South Carolina, but then comes Florida, and I don’t know if he will have the resources or message to win Florida after a do-or-die battle in South Carolina. But this is why the people vote …

  • bdirks

    That might be tougher than you think considering about 90% of the electorate apparently doesn’t want Perry. And since Perry has fallen from a high of 40%, that says there are alot of people who took a look and decided no way. Also, it takes big money to run in big states, and by all indications Perry is tapped out.

  • veritaseequitas

    opens the eyes of the Iowans to the fact that Perry is the only logical alternative to Little Barry.

  • sulmak

    If he wins it means votes will be sucked away from another conservative candidate who would have been more viable in later states.

  • znjs

    I’m assuming that the candidates have to report their fundraising results and expenses sometime this month; it will be interesting to see how the candidates are doing.

  • TSquared

    … but if he performs in Iowa as the polls predict, he’ll be badly damaged. Add that his poor debating performances and the lack of confidence that inspires. – I just don’t see Perry going anywhere. Polls can and will change, but Perry doesn’t even register anywhere outside of Iowa. Something major is going to have to shift for Perry for him to cut it and right now I can’t imagine what that would be.

    I understand many here thought Perry’s last debate was a good one for him. But when he set the bar so low for himself, anything better than another implosion would look like a good performance.

  • chrysostom15

    There is a longer primary season with more votes allocated at the end. Also, Santorum is much more fiscally conservative than Huckabee (remember Huckabee’s 2008 fight with the Club for Growth).

    Santorum is ahead of Perry in NH, and has gained 3 points there over the last week or so. My expectation is that Santorum — should he somehow win Iowa — would actually place well in NH, and be more formadable than Perry.

    I also wouldn’t count Gingrich out. He has stabalized in Iowa, NH, and nationally.

    I think that after Iowa, Bachmann will drop out. I think that Perry and Santorum both need a top 3 Iowa finish. Anything less and they should drop out.

    Bottom line is that I expect that 2 candidates will drop out after Iowa. In the case of Perry, remember that he is governor of Texas. He is not in the same situation as a Ron Paul or Alan Keys or other fringe candidates. He is a governor. Should the election show unwinnable, he would drop out to preserve his reputation. I highly doubt he would campaign beyond Iowa if he places worse than 3rd, since that would make him look bad.

    Bachmann is still in the House. After her poor finish, she — like Perry — needs to drop out to preserve her house seat. It would not help her to continue to campaign in vain.

    Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Romney, and Huntsman have a little more latitude. Paul is retiring and is not a possible VP pick. He could continue running without hope through the convention. Huntsman is probably going to drop out after NH, it serves him no purpose to continue beyond there if he doesn’t do well. Gingrich still shows well in the polls and thus has staying power through SC easily. If his polls plument, or the race looks unwinnable, he needs to drop out to preserve himself as a potential VP. Santorum ran for months when it looked like he had no chance, and is not in office. There is little reason for him to drop out as long as he has his current momentum. A top 3 finish in Iowa supports him playing in NH and SC. Strong showings there support him continuing. He remains a good potential VP pick, so if it becomes clear that someone else will win, he needs to drop out. Romney is running his last race if he doesn’t win. He can stay in easily through super tuesday and beyond. He is an unlikely VP, and is not in office for anything. He has money to self-finance. It is hard to see him leaving soon.

  • Wubbies World

    … depending on the Ron Paul nutter / OWS crowd turn out, I expect Perry to get second or third place. Third place is most likely though. I do not have any analysis to back this impression up. It is just my feelings and I know they are not worth much anyway. I do expect a Romney 1st place finish though. I also expect a Romney landslide in New Hampshire as well.

    I do feel Perry will continue his rise from that point. It will end up a Romney – Perry dog fight after that point.

    I have no track record when it comes to prognostication so we will see if I am even a little bit close.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    Erick is again right. If Santorum finishes 2nd or 3rd, Romney wins no matter what. If Perry finishes 3rd, it may be a race.

    I think it will be the former, and we are headed for the moderate to lead the ticket, for good or ill.

  • Scope

    or are you just throwing crap against the wall hoping someone will listen to your unfounded and wild accusations? You don’t have a clue as to Perry finances, none.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re totally incapable of arguing your points aren’t you?

    Wow you’re worthless.

    Hint: check the fundraising. Perry’s going to SC no matter what happens in IA, dork.

  • Scope

    if they put Ron Paul in the top three?

  • Samsara

    At least with McCain you knew where he stood on issues. With Romney…who knows?

  • onenationundergod

    Ron Paul talks liberty and constitution. It has only been more recent that people are understanding his national security positions. Glenn Beck said he would vote for Paul before Gingrich.

    Paul had 10% support in Iowa in 08. He will do better than that because the anti war dems are going to caucus as Republicans tonight. He also has studied Obama’s win and has the college kids on board.

  • onenationundergod

    He has caucus chairpeople in all the counties. His brother lives there. Despite the governor endorsing Romney, Santorum’s rise will entice conservatives away from Newt. How much? I don’t know.

  • nancysabet

    except they pulled a trick onhim in VA
    Perry will win on third and will be the nominee

  • onenationundergod

    Romney has not increased his percentage in IOwa from 08, 25%, the moderates in the party. It is not Iowa’s fault he is still here. Why didn’t the establishment get rid of him? When do WE get to decide our candidates….I thought that was what the caucus/primaries are for.
    I think we have good candidates, the only determining factor will be if they put down their selfish needs and get out at the right time and consolidate against the RINO. Iowa is starting the process, not the problem.

  • nancysabet

    well said
    Two reasons for a Perry Presidency:A record of executive leadership and concise and believable early plan to boost the American

  • thirstyboots

    He created enough separation from the pack and the support of that network of evangelical pastors will get out the vote for him. He’ll have +1000 precinct leaders – and no out-of-stater. I’d guess it will be Romney, Paul, Santorum by this order but it’ll be close.

    The real battle is Newt vs Perry for the 4th place. I think Newt finishes 4th and Perry at 5th.

  • TSquared

    … I expect Perry to be in this at least until S.C..

    The only candidate that may drop out after Iowa is Bachmann. She says she’s going to stay in it, but what else would she say on the eve of the Iowa caucus.

    Santorum may have dropped out had he not had this last minute surge in Iowa. But it’s now unlikely for that to happen – further mucking this up.

    It’s assumed that Perry still has some bank and based on that alone there is little reason to believe that he won’t soldier on. But, if he places where the polls suggest, you cannot deny that he will be damaged by it.

    Anything can happen. But tell me what you think will be the spark that gives Perry the resurgence that you’ll think he’ll have?

  • nancysabet

    Santorum is not surging – it is a ploy by the media and pollsters…. Dems and msm are pouring time and $$$ to keep him in race to stop Perry. MSM , , including fox, and Rep. establishment are doing everything to stop Perry. Sadly, this is what Dems also want, The Dems DO NOT want to run against Rick Perry (witness what the WH has been doing to TX). How could they possibly put his record up against Obama’s? No debates needed ? facts are facts. There are no videos out there of Perry changing positions over and over. Now at the last 2 days they pull a trick and promoting Santorum who??

  • thirstyboots

    Most of those who voted for Romney in 2008 aren’t voting for him this time around.

  • nancysabet

    Iowans will vote for Perry for two reasons:A record of executive leadership and concise and believable early plan to boost the American

  • crosley

    And right now, according to RealClearPolitics, he’s polling in 5th place in Iowa.

    FoxNews stated that his campaign has outspent every single other individual campaign in the state of Iowa. He has even taken desperate positions to pander to Iowan social conservatives that will make him completely unelectable in a general election (like suddenly for the first time wanting to outlaw abortion even in cases of rape)

    If Perry comes in 4th or 5th place in Iowa after all he’s thrown at it, he’s done. I’m sure he’ll stick around until after South Carolina, but all that will do is split up the vote among Santorum and Gingrich.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I said he’ll try in SC. I didn’t make any prediction about how well
    he’d do.

    You’re just looking to pick a fight. Can it.

  • onenationundergod

    Give us a chance to figure out our leader. Iowa is only the start people….let’s find a conservative. OUR establishment has power/money….they are to blame. The only way to change that is to unify behind someone….I believe we can do that. Quit destroying Santorum or Perry…give the process a chance.

  • unclefred

    With no winner take all contests before April 1st, winning Iowa or NH is only valuable for momentum and attracting money. Assuming that no candidate breaks 40% in the early states this will last well beyond Super Tuesday before we get a nominee.

  • clowngirl

    Hey, if Santorum can be a blip on the radar up until the last week and then suddenly surge, why not Huntsman?

    How would that shake up the race?

    Inclined to think that Santorum taking third place behind Romney and Paul would help Romney but Santorum actually winning would badly hurt Romney.

    He and his Super PAC spent more money in Iowa than anybody else – if all that just meant trading one non-Romney front runner for another. If he – without being pummeled by constant attacks and with so much media support can’t even beat Rick Santorum – who 2 weeks ago was in single digits- it will emphasize how much he can’t woo more support.

    Would be happy to see Santorum in the top 3 provided he isn’t joined by Paul or Romney.

    Looked back at polls from 2008 for the first few contests and noted 2 things:

    1.) some of them were off by as much as 10 points

    2.) Romney generally polled better than he actually performed.

    So, I’m hoping that will be the case this year. Wouldn’t be that surprised if Newt or Perry somehow pulled out a win- or if both were in the top three.

    The polls wouldn’t have to be off any more than some of them were in 2008.

  • david1313

    I know this is not popular here but Rick would have an aweful time with Obama. I live in Texas and the ‘deer in the hightlight’ look is more common than you might think. Having said that, Rick Perry is my second choice behind Newt. Rick S. is a pipe dream without the pipe.

  • TSquared

    I gave my honest opinion….

    You may not agree with it, but I’m not the one getting nasty.

    I also asked a valid question. And I’ll ask it again. Tell me what you think will be the spark that gives Perry the resurgence – both in Iowa and beyond – that you?ll think he?ll have?

    If you think that I’m a Perry basher, then you are wrong. I like Perry just fine. I just see the odds being heavily against him. Perhaps you could persuade me otherwise.

  • lizzie

    according to the DMReg. They want to hear the candidate surrogates speak at the caucus site. The concern over Perry’s electability and intelligence can be offset by surrogates from 32 other states who are articulate and sincere, and on-message.

    After more surrogate training , Gov. Perry added two events today at Principal Group and Nationwide in Des Moines: Romney territory.

    Not surprised by Santorum-stall in Iowa.

    Just hope Iowa tracks how many caucusees switch registration to GOP tonight, so we have a comparison to Ron Paul’s finish. What if there is data that shows his support was mostly from Democrats?

    I have to believe that Dr. Paul is also in Iowa free-fall today.

    What Team Perry has failed to do is 1) link the videos of his interviews and Iowa events at his official website, and 2) not reveal how his Veterans for Perry team is working Iowa.

    I tried to find Perry’s one on one interview with DM Reg Kathy O last night – I had failed to bookmark it, and it was NOT to be found anywhere at the DMReg website.

    OTOH, Des Moines’ KIIMT had Bachmann’s “Lunch with the Undecideds” yesterday, lunch with Becky Beach and Tom Bernau, the third in that series – Perry was 1st, Santorum #2. Seems that is the end of that series until Romney has a late night dinner with them today.

    Quite possible that series ended the Santorum bump :) he bored them for ninety minutes so that no one took a bite of food, and he failed the dog-lover test.

    see you all at midnight.

  • david1313

    Or Rick Perry, but I think he would be more of a long shot personally.

  • jaykali

    Not completely positive though bc I think he could be in some trouble in the south. They hated him last time, but the non-Romney vote is so splintered and his opponents don’t have enough money I don’t think to go the distance.

    I personally will not mind voting for Romney, certainly he has flaws but so does everybody. He isn’t the most conservative candidate but I don’t think that will hurt him in the general at all, quite the opposite. Obama will triple-down on wall-street rhetoric but I just don’t think it will work myself. You can argue that Romney is a RINO, etc. and that’s fine I know that 99% of redstate readers hate him but he has run a good campaign when you look at it objectively. And he has money to run against Obama so in my humble personal opinion he is the only one who can go the distance.

  • khetaamenti

    A has-ben, ear-marking Senator could be VP? Oh wait Obama chose him. Santorum as VP is laughable, we do not need a proven spender, we need a proven leader.

    Perry 2012

  • buster93

    I have Rick Perry as my only choice here. 13th global economy in the world. His record is clear. As I have stated earlier he will do fine against the lawyer in chief. Because Obama has no record on anything. Perry will meet Americans and they will like him and his policies.
    GOD BLESS AMERICA
    RICK PERRY 2012

  • Tbone

    and the sane 10% is screwed.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    get that?

    Look at their record – Steve Forbes (who I liked but went nowhere), Pat Buchannan, Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee. And now Santorum, although he’s not gonna win.

    I would say that Iowans are proof that the Republican Party should ban caucuses and should move to regional-type primaries. I know the argument (one of ‘em) is that shuts out candidates who can’t raise lots of money, but given the disaster that Iowa has been and is now, I don’t see that as a problem.

  • jrfromdallas

    If Paul finishes in the top 3 I think Iowa needs to lose their place in the nomination process forever. There are other states with more delegates that could use that injection of money that are far more important than Iowa and they should lose that status if Paul finishes in the top 3.

  • Tbone

    They should have “RP” branded on their foreheads so that normal people can spit on them at will.

  • buster93

    Rick Perry has a stong relationship with military and families. It is also genuine. I’m sure this will seen in the days to come
    God Bless Our Troops
    RICK PERRY 2012

  • david1313

    Yes I am ok with that, not that it matters. LOL. I am a ‘anybody but Romney and Paul’ guy. So, I have had Rick Perry as governor and all is ‘ok’ in my world. Not sure you are right, but if that happens I could be happy.

  • bdirks

    He has a solid record when working with a friendly legislature on establishing a good business climate and creating jobs. Best in the field.

    I would say his executive leadership over his campaign has been a miserable failure, and that he has the most far fetched and unworkable campaign platform (part time Congress, flat tax, closing three departments) of any candidate besides Paul.

  • thirstyboots

    The quarterly/year-end reports are due by January 31.

    However I do expect most of the info to come out during the next week. If some campaign is not leaking any numbers, you can assume they had a bad quarter.

  • buster93

    Are you on the Red State Crosley? Maybe you should go to some
    other site. Rick Perry here. It’s not over till its over!!!! The only candidatewith a proven record and leadership.

  • bdirks

    Checks had to be in by December 31st, reports have to be filed with the FEC by Jan 15th.

  • buster93

    Romney will have trouble: He talks way to fast, major flip flopper wearing red when he is really blue. Have some grits and get your earl checked. Oh thats right he has been running for President for 5 years. Whats he done since then?

  • Ann_W

    Some posters talk repeatedly about the establishment picking Romney, etc. If he ends up being the nominee it will be because more Republican primary voters picked him than picked any other candidate. There’s no big evil establishment controlling the outcome, we do.

  • elayman

    At least I can hope. He would be a hell of a lot less risky and more conservative than anyone else in the field. Expectations aren’t being played to win but they are probably around 20% now and momentum in at their back. Get cover with a second tv ad and we are in business.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Mr. Google will be your friend. Check out Redstate during the 08 primary season and you’ll discover that Paul’s national security positions, the fact he’s a monster hypocrite on budgetary issues, a total failure as a Congressman, etc. were all pounded here to the point that it got so onerous with Paultards that site management initiated the “one and done” policy on banning the idiots.

    You’ll also find many other publications who focused on those issues and on his newsletter content as well.

    Glenn Beck can be an irrational fool more often than not. The question in Iowa is whether the antiwar dems and the stoners will actually show up. They certainly don’t show in real elections.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Rick Perry is my one and only choice in the primary and he’ll beat Obama like a drum :D

  • ceili_dancer

    There will be some major fights for the next President. If you think someone whose first and only strategy is to play prevent defense for a campaign and hide behind the podium during debates is the type of fighter that’s going to lead, I think you may be sadly mistaken.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    came in fourth in Iowa.

  • texastaxpayer

    I am in the DFW metroplex, cant believe you are supporting Santorum who hasn’t ever ran so much as a lemonade stand over the good governor of Texas. If your in my area I would be willing to act as your “sponsor” and help you kick that drinking problem you obviously have let go to far….

  • pttx333

    Perry watching if you live in Texas – I’ve never seen him with that deer-in-the-headlights look you describe. How has he won every single election he has run for if that is so? We’re not a bunch of neanderthals here in Texas, you know. Look around here on RS, watch the videos and read the articles – he’s got his Mojo working overtime and comes across like the champ that he has proven himself to be, and with more than enough creds to carry him firmly across the finish line. Please try to rethink what you’ve just spoken above. You might look at things a little differently if you do.

    Thanks.

  • lineholder

    and has college kids on board” is going to persuade us in favor of Paul as President…I’m sorry, but you have to be kidding about this, right?

    Obama presented nothing more than illusion of success under the guise of “Hope and Change”, and many, many people were duped by it. Out and out deceived by it, plain and simple. Including a lot of young adults who are since developing wisdom from things they’re learning the hard way, like “you can’t just believe what you’re told to believe” and “when something sounds too good to be true, it often is”.

    That Ron Paul would consider something similar as being “acceptable strategy” speak volumes about the man

  • Samsara

    voters pick the winner.

    But if you watch Fox News or listen to their pundits it is clear that they are not being either fair or balanced. The thing that drove me to start posting about this was the talking point, repeated several times, that Gingrich had flip flopped on his position on Romney care. They tarred Newt for supporting it years ago, and gave Mitt a complete pass. They don?t even mention Romney Care or his multiple positions on numerous issues.

    Not a conspiracy…an opinion. :)

  • onenationundergod

    All I’m saying, it the NEW support is perhaps tea party members looking for someone to limit the government and return to the constitution. The tea party was after 08 and Paul has benefitted from it because of some of the common ideals.

    I gave Ron Paul NO attention in 08 so I couldn’t have told you anything about him.

    Not everyone in the conservative movement reads blogs. I prefer to listen to the candidates first, then start talking on blogs to see what people are saying.

  • onenationundergod

    commonalities. I’m not a Paul supporter, but I live here so I read local news, and am out and about. He has college kids working hard for him and for sure the anti war dems said they would caucus for him. I have no idea if they really will. I can let you know what I see at my precinct.

    Obama had a ton of college kids working for his campaign and he won. I see the same tactic with Paul. I’m sure it isn’t the same volume, I’m just telling you who is supporting him.

  • onenationundergod

    People like Paul will just spend time in whatever state goes first. He has been methodical. If it was Arkansas he’d be doing it there.

    I don’t think he is busing people in, which Obama did. He doesn’t have the power O did, just some similar followers. It is weird.

  • pttx333

    ….

  • onenationundergod

    I don’t think Perry is done if you believe EE about the campaign structure and he obviously has money. Sure Newt is doing well in SC but for how long? Give them a chance to weigh things. I see this as a wave. If anyone is done, it should be Bachman if she finishes low. I don’t know what low is, for sure 5th, but maybe 4th.

  • onenationundergod

    I don’t see where his support is coming from. Only 24-25% of the party. Somebody can knock him out.

  • flgal208

    what you’re saying is Perry needs ONE thing for him to ignite. And I think it’s a bunch of little things.
    First, Michelle hemorrhages more staffers/donors/votes and if she stays in the race as a Romney shill, her votes will go to Santorum because those two are running on social values and appealing to evangelicals almost completely. IF she bails, she’ll probably jump on Mitt, but won’t have many of her supporters coming with her because 1) they will be few and 2) they don’t like Mitt, period. So, whatever is left goes to RS temporarily because
    Second, RS just can’t compete outside Iowa where he lived. He’s not a viable candidate and businesses won’t support him, so the two of them won’t make it to FL
    Third, 2/3 of those supporters will flee to Newt/Perry.
    Fourth, Huntsman is going to go on an all out assault on Mitt in NH and will dent his armor. Willard might still win NH, but he won’t be picking up new support from SC/FL voters because of the scorched earth attack by Jon.
    Fifth, Newt is now p-offed at Mitt and IF he has money left, he will finally start a negative campaign against Willard. IF he’s broke and limps into SC with little in his war chest, Perry will start picking off his supporters.
    Sixth) With Huntsman just not conservative enough for SC/FL, he moves on to NV and punches Willard there (TX is a loss for all but Perry)
    Seventh, leaving SC/FL a Willard/Rick fight and Perry has the upper hand here. And Newt hemorrhages out because you have to have business money to survive—Willard has global corporation money, but Perry has small and mid-sized businesses and they know he’s the best bet and not Newt—FL is a HUGE state with a very diverse population, and you have to have a big ground game and the money and stamina to cover al 64,000 sq miles of it….
    so, Perry won’t need a BIG moment to carry on, just a 1,000 papercuts to his opponents…leaving a cage match between Willard and he on Super Tuesday. IF Perry gets the 75% that don’t want Willard, even with FNC/GOP pulling for Willard, he takes the nomination and the WH because the voters will be given a stark contrast, not BO and BO-lite… they will be given BO and Calvin Coolidge…IF American wants to be Socialists, BO wins, if they want a Republic, they go Perry–it truly is that simple.

  • baracksolyndraobama

    Short response: b.s.

    Medium response: Erick positioning himself as an ideal CNN conservative pundit. One who has already declared the likely GOP nominee unelectable. “Book him for maximum number of segments, Dano!”

    Long response: Erick posits that Perry is a f-f-f-fi-fi-fighter, yeah that’s it, fi-fi-fighter, that’s the word I was searching for, who can beat Obama, and that Romney is destined to show up to the gunfight with only his silk manbag. Whatever.

    Rick Perry lost the primary when he proved himself unable to speak. He can fight all he wants, but he will not reverse his inarticulate empty suit image. You talk about second comings: How would the second coming of GWB work out for us? His presence as GWB2 would be the ultimate insulator for Obama. It would allow him to further demand being graded on the curve due to inheriting the Bush Economy.

    Mitt Romney’s business/turnaround agent background equips him best for the fight ahead. Sure, he’ll be attacked on a variety of fronts, but the nation needs a turnaround. And I don’t doubt that he will fight to accomplish just that.

    As a matter of fact, he has fought very effectively against Gingrich the last two weeks. That’s enough evidence for me.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    less any who have been abducted by aliens.

    His numbers (emphasis on “numb”) come from Dems who can register as Reps AT the caucus and from stoner antimilitary college stupents [sic]. Neither of those groups show up in real elections. Realistically, Paul commands about 3% of the Republican vote.

  • ceili_dancer

    he ran a successful campaign? Your basing his fighter image on “taking on” Gingrich for the last two weeks? If he was indeed a fighter, he would have fought for conservative ideas while governor of the state of Mass. You may say that it is a blue state, but there are quite a few things that he could have done there to serve up SOME conservative credential building. But you can always tell the folks, I can’t do anything conservative, I’m the governor of Mass., for Pete’s sake.

  • flgal208

    Iowa is becoming a joke and it’s sad. Instead of them picking Jack-of-all-Trades kind of candidates, they lately seem to be going with one-hit wonders and over-looking practicality which is funny, since Iowans by nature (and Midwesterners) are a practical people…I’m not sure why they’re jumping the rails, but I think it’s because they are becoming indicative of the whole country—-self-centered and needy and so much self-reliant anymore…

  • septembergurl

    up at RCP. They show Huntsman tying, then moving ahead of Gingrich into the #3 spot in NH. Although it’s just as much, or more, a factor of Gingrich falling into single digits. Also dropping is Ron Paul, I would expect him to do about as well as he did in ’08, which was about 8% as I recall. Romney still way ahead, but I can’t help thinking that is soft support. It’s interesting that Santorum and Huntsman are the ones who spent the most time in their respective states. If they win or place, that would mean it would have been wise for Perry to spend more time in SC than Iowa, bypassing NH entirely.

  • A_Texan

    Fred Thompson, my man back in ’08 finished third, stuck around through SC, and attacked Huckabee, not McCain, and then turned around and endorsed McCain.

    If Santorum wins, and Perry and Bachmann get out, then a Santorum-Romney-Gingrich fight in SC may give Santorum, not Romney, the win.

    Here’s what I bet: both Perry and Bachmann will endorse McCain/Romney before or after SC and thus defeat Santorum.

    Honestly, the worst thing about this campaign and 2008 is the degree to which the non-Romneys attack one another while Romney sits there pretty.

  • onenationundergod

    www.drudgereport.com

    Caucus poll. Romney and Paul are leading….and you are telling me this is Iowa’s fault? How do you explain this poll?

  • flgal208

    and he’s from Tampa where the Perry campaign has set up shop and for those of you who don’t live here, Tampa has a large Hispanic community, the largest outside of S FL AND the person who orchestrated Scott’s unbelievable primary win, is with Perry…Scott beat the very well known AG who was first to file suit over Obamacare, it was a HUGE upset. And that battle was a such a primary scorch-fest, that I was afraid Scott would look so bad, that the Pubs wouldn’t vote for him, but he beat the DEM a very moderate, nice guy (I even toyed with the idea of leaning his way). The point is, Scott won and he ran as a take no prisoners, fiscal conservative. McCullum was perceived as a long-time insider with a moderate record…and BTW–while Scott has ticked off the teacher’s unions and a few other gimme organizations, he’s creating jobs and a ton of them…so, FL is open to looking at the governing model Scott used: Texas and Rick Perry.

  • onenationundergod

    Go check out his poll www.drudgereport.com

    Who read him? Why is Paul doing well? This is nuts, but it isn’t just iowa.

  • bdirks

    Help walk me through them:

    1) Part Time Congress: Does the Executive Branch in DC really need more power? That’s what you get when Congress isn’t there. Want to see another Iraq Reconstruction con job or Solyndra? Get Congress’s prying eyes out of DC. As for them getting real jobs? A lofty idea, but what about the inherent conflicts of interest? Do you set caps on compensation? Do you tell a person who sells insurance that he can’t serve in Congress? Do you make Congress even more of an option for the ultra wealthy than it already is?

    2) Flat Tax: Needless to say, it would reduce government revenues, at least in the short term. That’s fine with me, as long as you cut the spending accordingly. However, in a related pander, Perry has started espousing the Bachmann line about never raising the debt ceiling as President. TELL US HOW. Tell us how you will reduce the deficit by $1 trillion or more in your first year in office – actually by March 2013 when the debt ceiling will hit again. For all those who believe that default by another name is fine and we should not raise the ceiling to force a balanced budget, TELL US HOW you will reduce spending to match incoming revenues.

    3) Closing agencies: again, fine idea. But will he have the gumption to not appoint a Secretary or a single political appointee to one of these agencies, ever?

    Perry’s platform is appealing, and so is his success. But he is about as prepared to implement those plans as he is familiar with Lawrence v. Texas, a court case second in infamy only to Roe v. Wade for social conservatives. I’ll say it again, vote for him if you think he is the best president to enable job creation – I sure will if he is the nominee. But his campaign platform and soundbites from his ads are only going to come true in Fantasyland.

  • JSobieski

    but there are some differences as well.

    Perry has been running enthusiastically and in a conventional manner—raising lots of money, holding lots of events, etc.

    What gives me the chills is when people talk about Perry’s crowds in Iowa. I specifically remember hearing people talk about the crowds at Fred events in 2008.

    If Perry did drop out (I don’t think or want this to happen), and Newt was still alive, I don’t think Perry would endorse Romney.

    I agree that Perry won’t endorse Santorum.

  • windwaker24

    LOL! Romney may have some trouble. :)

  • flgal208

    after having back surgery. So, the first thing he had to focus on was getting money and healing, thus his entry was lackluster. Being a MAN, he never mentioned his pain or that he was wearing a back brace during the first three/four debates. He’s healed now and his debates have improved…plus I get the impression that unlike the other candidates, he was pursued and hounded to run, not the other way around.

  • texashistorian

    Perry’s first term as governor- 78 (I think) vetoes, a great many of which were spending bills. He doesn’t have to tell us how, he has showed us how. You want spending to match revenue, then the President refuses to sign a spending bill that doesn’t do that. There is enough support in the GOP ranks for fiscal conservatism that strong leadership in that area will go a long way. Perry has done it in Texas and can do it in the White House. Would you rather a candidate to say it, or one that has done it?

    Perry will open up ANWR and offshore locations for drilling, would have long since signed the Keystone XL deal etc. You watch a million Americans get back to work or get paid more and watch the revenues rise even while tax rates fall. It doesn’t happen in a vaccum. Andrew Mellon figured this out in the 1920s- more jobs, more growth, encouraged and sustained by low tax rates generates increased revenue,

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Perry is nothing like Fred, certainly at this point.

    1. Perry is actively campaigning, Fred never did get off his duff.
    2. Perry can raise money, Fred never much did.

  • pttx333

    I went there, voted, then (to double-check) voted again – and I WAS ALLOWED to vote a second time! So … this is a reliable poll? Bah!

  • texashistorian

    Fred did campaign, but could never shake the label of lazy that go stuck to him from the beginning. The difference here is that Fred didn’t really fight back too hard on that score. Perry is a fighter and willing to go after the press in a way that Fred did not. You are spot on about the money- Perry got his ducks lined up with that before even starting.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    without regard to Ron Paul. They are eminently gameable and you can bet buses will be showing up. If not with Paul supporters, then with Santorum supporters. And in either case, the collective IQ in bus will be below 10.

  • bdirks

    First off, the Texas budget is a kid’s toy compared to the Federal budget. Second, for example Paul Ryan’s plan doesn’t come close to balancing the budget for decades. Hell, Rand Paul had a budget proposal that didn’t even do it for five years. Does Perry’s? Where is it? And let’s not even disgrace this conversation by mentioning Bachmann who won’t even endorse Ryan Plan without an “asterisk” for Medicare.

    Unbalanced Budget = Deficits = Total Debt = Debt Ceiling Must Go Up

    Doesn’t get any simpler than that. If you don’t want to raise the Debt Ceiling, that’s fine. Just explain how you will cut $1.5 trillion over night instead.

  • A_Texan

    Perry has, I believe, different deficiencies. Thompson did well in the debates, for instance. Remember the “I don’t do hand shows” line? Sigh… Alot of wasted potential. And don’t get me started on Pawlenty–same lack of fight.

    I think Thompson was rightly criticized for his campaigning style. I watched a ton of videos of him, and he seemed to just amble everywhere. I think Perry is rightly criticized for not seeming too bright.

    But like Perry, Thompson was pushed into this thing by his wife, I suspect.

  • jgge

    and so is Romney and all his supporters. In what universe you live in to think that a Wall Street financier and CEO of Bain Capital whose business is to sell and buy companies and in the process people lose their jobs is going to win against Obama in this environment where a majority of voters hate Wall Street. Seriously you Romney supporters are totally detached from the real world. There is no way in hell a Wall Street Financier is going to win the elections. Romney is Obama dream opponent because Obama is going to unleash the most vicious class warfare campaign in history of American politics and he could never dream of a better opponent than Romney the very rich Wall Street Financier. No amount of Romney plastic smile, or his bright shine on his hair, or him speaking one thousand words in 30 seconds, is going to change this fact.

    I hope that enough of us are smart enough and uses their brains to make sure that Romney is not the nominee.

  • pttx333

    referring to this stupid, totally unreliable Drudge poll! On another thread, I told you my experience when I went there to vote – it let me post TWICE! Have no idea how many times it would have allowed me to vote. So, if this is a source of reliable info for you, you would do well to rethink what you currently believe.

    FYI – Particularly Paul supporters have been skewing polls for years and years! So there is no way this is reliable!

  • A_Texan

    I remember desperately hoping for one, and he did, but just from the single digits to the low teens, where he wound up.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

    Perry had a mini surge after the last debate, but has been stalled ever since December 19 or so.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

    I love Realclearpolitics by the way.

  • jaykali

    I don’t see who is going to be able to survive long enough. The best shot someone has is to win South Carolina, I think that is going to be your non-Romney candidate. Not sure I’ve seen current enough polls to know if Gingrich can still be that guy to win SC and then Florida. If he hasn’t dropped already I think Romney might end up winning both. I mean SC is supposed to not be a Romney state just like Iowa and yet I think he might win both.

    Personally I think he’ll win Iowa with ron Paul getting #2. I don’t think Gingrich has strong enough support + money to win SC & Florida.

  • pttx333

    practicing our Texas speak a/k/a “makin’ fun of ourselfs.” We’re a nutty bunch, so just hang with us and we’ll give you a laugh or eleven! ;-)

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    And I only voted once. The reason Perry loses these things is because his supporters are probably sane people for the most part. The Paulbots–as individuals–probably hit the “vote” button about twenty thousand times. EACH. No integrity whatsoever.

  • ctredstater

    Burn away the pretenders and it has always been a Romney vs. Perry fight, with Newt as a wild card. Follow the money. Newt and Bachman are financially challenged. Barring a HUGE win tonight, something I don’t expect (I believe reports of the “surge” are partly wishful thinking by the likes of Fox News) he will not have the infrastructure to challenge the Big Three nationally.

    Then factor in Sarah. Who said today that Bachmann should get out and conservatives should consolidate around one candidate pre-SC and support that candidate. Let’s see – who does that leave? hmmmm.

    I think it is Santorum v. Perry. Newt has SO MUCH stuff that Paliln doesn’t like (lobbying, Pelosi couch, etc.). If it turns out that Perry is the “story” tonight, and Sarah gets behind Rick Perry’s candidacy. Then perhaps DeMint will be tempted to jump into the pool. Then Katy Bar the Door.

    The real race tonight is Perry/Gingrich/Santorum. If Perry wins this “primary” then I agree with Dan. Ballgame.

  • texashistorian

    hate to break it back to you, but a budget is a budget. If you spend more than you take in, then you have a deficit. The size of Texas vs the USA doesn’t matter since all budgeting is done from the standpoint of principle.

    If you want to believe that the U.S. government can’t cut 1.5 trillion out of its nearly 4 trillion budget, then go ahead. What was the budget size in 2000? 1.8 Trillion, this year O’s budget was 3.7 trillion. Chop 1.5 trillion and you still spend more than in 2000.

    All I am saying is that Perry has done that sort of thing in the past. Now, if you close the depts he wants, you get some ways towards that. That is part of the how, the problem you seem to be having with it is that you don’t believe he will do it. That is a different issue altogether.

    Look, you get a million gas and oil jobs online in a years or so, then the revenue problem starts to evaporate, cutting Energy, Commerce, Education depts., drastically reducing the EPA, cutting foreign aid (which Perry also said he would do), dwindling military commitments overseas (already happening) then you have the basis for not needing to raise the debt ceiling. It isn’t that far fetched, and I think that Perry has laid out a way to make it happen.

  • pttx333

    by his wife? Do you really think that anyone could “push” Perry into anything? What did you inhale for lunch?

  • ctredstater

    haven’t been polled in quite a while. the polls that will matter for these states are the Post-Iowa polls. there is this floating “Non-Romney” vote – and I think Newt was delusional when he said, in effect, he was working on his Acceptance Speech for the convention.

    his support – like the others, has been a mile wide and an inch deep.

    If Governor Perry beats tonights expectation games, it will change the structure of the race.

  • jrfromdallas

    Do you really think that Paul would be winning if these Paulbots didn’t hijack the vote?

  • jrfromdallas

    She’s been playing games with her followers and she should endorse Perry since his views are most like hers and her followers but she can’t do that because once Perry got in the race she couldn’t.

  • jrfromdallas

    Iowa is NOT the kingmaker in the GOP process with 8 delegates. By your thinking if Ron Paul wins Iowa then we should all get behind him right? Iowa is insignificant. Florida and SC are more important. Iowa is good just for the fact that it allows a campaign to get warmed up on working together.

  • onenationundergod

    I could only vote once. I hope you ar? right that it isn’t representative

  • bdirks

    You are right that more jobs is the silver bullet for our revenue problems, and you are right that even with an effective president in place, it will take a few years for those energy and other jobs to hit the millions mark.

    But on the spending side, even if you zeroed out every dime of discretionary spending (around $1.5 trillion) – domestic programs/agencies & defense – it wouldn’t even totally close out the deficit. The favorite targets you listed would reduce the operating deficit by $100 billion, $200 billion tops. Anyone who tells you we won’t be raising the debt ceiling for years to come is lying to you, unless they have a plan to immediately, drastically overhaul our entitlement programs and other mandatory spending, which make up more than half the budget.

  • thirstyboots

    Reports have to be filed by January 31.

    It’s April 15, July 15, October 15 and January 31.

  • ctredstater

    Rick Perry To Lead The Great American Comeback!!!

    The Day After Election Day 2012 will be Morning In America if Rick Perry is Elected President.

  • mccoypauley

    “Be respectful, or be banned.”

    Words to live by.

  • pttx333

    The stupid thing allowed me to vote twice in a row. Perhaps they fixed it, but, if so, the whole thing is a pile of garbage anyway – sorta like shutting the barn door after the horse escaped.

  • onenationundergod

    Why does texas keep electing Paul

  • A_Texan

    Only Santorum or Paul right now have a reasonable chance of depriving Romney of a first place showing in Iowa, followed by a win in NH, then SC, etc. And Paul is, at least for me, unacceptable.

    If Santorum topples Romney, then his first place win in NH will not seem so decisive, and SC will have a freer choice, maybe with Santorum, maybe Gingrich.

    A Romney win in Iowa may very well end this campaign….

  • A_Texan

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/8797753/Rick-Perry-My-wife-prodded-me-to-enter-presidential-race.html

    That’s where I got the crazy idea.

  • pttx333

    many years, a great portion of which is conservative, and couldn’t for the longest time figure out how he could possibly be elected. He ran on the Libertarian ticket for a while, then switched to the Republican ticket when he figured out how he could win. It was those of us who were voting straight ticket Republican! Myself included! I was appalled when I thought about it.

  • federalfarmer1

    Perry and Gingrich are the only candidates with a chance to sunset romney. Perry coming in behind Gingrich and santorum I think spells the end for him too. Huntsman needs a strong second in nh to be part of the conversation.

  • onenationundergod

    That explains a lot. He seems so ineffective just voting no for everything.

  • tomatin

    Actually I’m going to echo the Drudge Report Poll here.

    Paul
    Romney
    Santorum
    Gingrich
    Perry
    Bachmann
    Hunstman

    Romney has successfully divided and conquered the conservative vote. Paul will still finish slightly ahead of Romney because Paul’s supporters are cultlike and organized.

    Romney will be fine with Paul winning because this will only make the base fall in line more for Romney and he will win NH anyway. Conservatives will split AGAIN in SC and as long as Romney is in the top three he knows he’s fine. By FL Romney will pander to Cubans and win that primary and Romney will finish no worse than second in the primaries before Super Tuesday in NV, CO, MN, AZ, MI and WA.

    THE ONLY WAY FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE TO WIN WAS TO RALLY AROUND ONE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE AND THAT DID NOT HAPPEN FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.

    I guess the only good news is after Romney loses the general Perry is the next in line.

  • onenationundergod

    I tried right away again and it said it already counted my vote. I’m surprised Matt would put up something so weak. Sorry I mentioned it, it scared the crap out of me.

  • texashistorian

    is not a plan, but a congress. We are so used to insisting the President can do this. All of them, even my guy Perry, is predicating a lot on the fact that he can get congress to do the job. This is where it has to originate.

    However, a President that say I will not raise the debt ceiling- find a way to fix spending first, and I will not sign any bill that doesn’t decrease the budget deficit, can still lose to a supermajority. Veto only goes so far. All I am suggesting is that Perry has stood tough in Texas on these types of issues (no not perfectly) and that same approach can yield fruit in Washington D.C.

    At the end of the day, what we want in the White House is a President who will stand up to congress (and it helps when they are of the same party) and demand fixes. The only reason it hasn’t happened in our current crisis is Obama, and Harry Reid. We’d be well on the way to solving it through House Republican plan, and imagine if there was a chief executive who would push them even farther. I happen to believe Perry is that man to do just that. We can agree to disagree, though!

  • A_Texan

    N.T.

  • A_Texan

    Says Paul, Santorum, Romney.

    But the poll is virtually useless. Every online poll has Paul in first.

    I know, I know, because online polls are accurate, but the real elections are all stolen. Snark.

  • A_Texan

    Intrade:

    Romney at 50%, Paul and Santorumboth at 25%, for first place.

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

  • A_Texan

    He had the money, attention, endorsements, and this is what happened:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

    Santorum may collapse, but Perry has a proven ability to do so.

  • Lucas Black

    I’m not a big fan of caucuses in general, but I don’t see how it’s necessary or helpful to denigrate people who support either Paul or Santorum. Why are they unintelligent simply because they support a different candidate to you (or me, a Newtron). And if the process is ‘gameable’ then doesn’t it follow that any candidate could do it? Romney seemed to clean up in the caucuses last time while McCain was stomping him in the big primary states.
    I would rather that everyone vote for Gingrich, but I won’t suggest that those who do otherwise are dumb.

  • 1bunny

    online of who will win the IA caucus and it has Perry at 75% (an hour ago it was at 63%), Romney, Santorum, Gingrich at 8% each , Bachmann at 1% , Paul at 0% (obviously the Paulbots have not found this poll to overrun) It gives no information on how many have voted just percents of the vote. Just found it interesting that this is an Iowan station and Perry gets the votes.

  • Lucas Black

    Yes, but…
    1. He didn’t even compete in Iowa
    2. His 4th was basically a tie with Lazy Fred Thompson
    3. The next state up was friendly to him and he wound up winning it

    None of these things apply to Perry. I expect him to stay in if he gets 4th but if he’s 5th, he really should bail.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Along with a dozen other adjectives that don’t work in a family friendly site.

    As far as Santorum goes, he’s a pro-life statist in the mold of Mike Huckabee. Like Huckabee, he talks like a conservative at election time but nothing in his history suggests he’s doing anything but lying.

    As far as “gaming”, you need a single issue candidate – or a cult (Paul) – to do it successfully. The churches in Iowa have repeatedly picked up and bused people to caucus sites where they could register and vote for the “anointed” candidate. See Huckabee, Buchannan and Robertson.

    If you want a conservative candidate with “values” Rick Perry has experience and is a real live conservative with a 30 year history of being a conservative executive.

  • Lucas Black

    One day, I might figure out how Rick Perry inspires such fanatical love here on RedState (and apparently nowhere else) because I have to confess I simply don’t get it. Then again, I never got the whole Fred Thompson craze, either. If (God help us) Obama is reelected, in 2016 there will probably be a big thing for someone like Butch Otter or someone equally as unlikely on this site. (That’s not a slam on Otter – I might be able to get into him myself.)

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    he ran out of money early and everybody ignored him. There was the standard candidate feeding frenzy, everybody knocked off everybody, two of them didn’t even get their hands dirty (Fred & Rudy) and McCain was left standing and took public financing to get $$ to get through the primary.

    He then went home for a “comity nap” and Obama raised $750 million or so.

  • A_Texan

    Can’t believe the Paulbots haven’t smelled it yet.

    And by Paulbots, I don’t mean all Ron Paul supporters, just those who vote multiple times at online polls.

  • Lucas Black

    I would not vote for Santorum in the primary because he has very different priorities to me, but that does not make those who do share his issues ‘stupid’. The same goes for Ron Paul – I agree with some of his issues and not with others (especially no the FP ones) but I certainly don’t think the man or his supporters are stupid. Often they have thought about their positions more than, say, Romney voters who seem primarily interested in electability.
    I am quite happy with my candidate, Newt Gingrich, but I wouldn’t suggest that people who don’t vote for him are stupid. I wish we could get away from the habit of knocking supporters of other candidates.

  • MOlsen6

    … and we will know the exact results, and can judge for ourselves. There isn’t any point in estimating right now when we will know for sure so soon. Who knows, maybe Perry is surging? Romney? We’ll all know soon enough.

  • lineholder

    I’m not going to call them stupid. Gullible, perhaps, but not stupid.

    I heard an except from Ron Paul’s speech in Iowa over the radio earlier today, and he’s selling a vision of America, “that we don’t have to take on all the world’s problems”, etc. In Ron Paul “speak”, that means isolationism, but did he say outright today to the American people in Iowa just how far he wants to go with isolationism? NO. He just painted them this incredibly rose-colored illusion of what our lives would become if we followed the lead provided by his policies.

    He’s very much so like Obama in that respect. It was like listening to Obama spout “Hope and Change” all over again.

  • Lucas Black

    McCain did not take public financing in the primary – you are wrong about that. He only took it for the general. It’s a mixed bag if he should have done that – at the end of the day no Republican could have won that race because of the October crash and the Bush/Delay decade of ruining the GOP brand.
    McCain threaded a needle to win but he wouldn’t have been able to do it without his bold stands on the surge and things like that.

  • pj2012

    it tells you zip about what the real Iowa caucus results will be.

  • Lucas Black

    I agree the man’s an isolationist, but for much of the history of the US, this was considered a valid opinion (and it was usually the GOP position, to boot).
    I would imagine Ron Paul feels that things would be better if we all followed his ideas. I don’t. But I can’t imagine any politician evangelizing on positions they felt would cause major harm to the country. I don’t listen to too many of Paul’s speeches because I find him somewhat dull but there’s no question he’s a true believer.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Santorum’s are gullible.

    When people refuse to do at least a minimal check on a candidate – and for both Paul and Obama – that was all that was needed, and refuse to recognize the facts, they are stupid.

  • tomatin

    But I’ll go with it’s first prediction.

    No Perry surge unfortunately.

  • Scope

    You can only be stupid and/or deluded if you have any brains, or at least a few firing brain cells. The Paulies prove daily that there is nothing in their heads behind their tongues.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    If internet polling was accurate, Ron Paul would have walked away with the Presidency in 08.

    No internet polling is worth the powder to blow it to hell – which is where it belongs. Even the HotAir poll – very large numbers – was totally meaningless – just ask Sarah Palin.

  • gekster

    I opened 4 tabs to drudge, and kept repeatedly voting for 15 minutes.
    All 4 tabs took my votes.
    (I voted for a different one for each tab)
    Try it.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    and third votes for Rick Perry.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    (As though it were a legitimate poll.) With, of course, the results blared all over the page:

    PAUL 31% ROMNEY 25% SANTORUM 17%

    Whee.

  • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

    I tried voting multiple times, and got a message at the top of the liist they had already counted my vote. This happened each time I tried voting after the first time, whether in a different tab, totally different window, etc. Did you not get that message?

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    Take HotAir for example. You have to provide your email address, your area code, AND your ZIP code–and if you try to vote twice, it’s not counted. These polls like the one on Drudge are nonsensical because you can vote a humpteen-thousand times.

  • gekster

    Might be a glich in the system.
    I’ll try again and see what I get.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Yeah, you can only vote once, unless of course you have multiple email addresses and you’re bright enough to match area and zip codes. Plus, when you have “groups” like the Paultards or C4P who have a vested interest in proving the viability of their candidate, it’s really easy to overwhelm a site doing the polling.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    .

  • pttx333

    thing as cheating – just like his supporters keep skewing the polls that don’t even remotely resemble the final outcome. So, the old goat won’t be running again, thank God above! I’m sure he truly believes that he is a shoo-in for the White House. He’s absolutely certifiably insane – can’t attribute it to his age since he’s always been this way! And now it appears that his son Rand from KY is of the same mindset, but go himself elected in KY anyway – sounds like under false pretenses. The fruit doesn’t fall far from the tree in almost all cases!

  • gekster

    I did check on that when I first voted, but now am getting that message.
    Guess they waited to get enough RP votes before they imposed it.

  • carolina

    A note at the TOP of the names says “Thank you, we’ve already counted your vote” after the first vote.
    I was able to vote twice for Perry – once at work, and once at home. (different computers, obviously)

  • carolina

    A note at the TOP of the names says “Thank you, we’ve already counted your vote” after the first vote.
    I was able to vote twice for Perry – once at work, and once at home. (different computers, obviously)

  • tyman

    you can vote as many times as you like.

    I just voted again.

  • tyman

    you can vote as many times as you like.

    I just voted again…for Rick Perry.

  • lineholder

    Okay, that’s a valid point. It IS stupid behavior to be that negligent.

  • pttx333

    so-called poll – it took both votes earlier this p.m. This stupid poll is just that – STUPID!

    Mom

  • onenationundergod

    Paul just disrupted my rest with a robocall complaining AGAIN about Santorum. Is it 7pm yet? I’m going early. WITH my signs. I’m expecting a bunch of Paul supporters….one of the intersections here was filled with college kids holding his signs. They won’t be at my location, I’ll get the antiwar nuts.

  • lineholder

    This is totally OT, so you’d have to take it to another thread, but Tina Korbe at Hot Air is suggesting that if Romney wins the nom, he should choose Santorum as his VP, because this would “appeal to his base” (meaning Conservatives).

    I just thought you guys would get a kick out of that one.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/01/03/the-gop-elite-already-know-who-they-want-as-vp/

  • pttx333

    send up some whoops and yells for me! Dagnabitall, wish I could be there, but I will be glued to RS and tv.

    Yep, the Paul supporters – like I always told my kids and grandkids, no one grows even one complete brain cell until around the age of 25 (myself included), so that explains the vast majority of Paulies! Someday they are going to be so embarrassed! ;-)

    GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!

  • onenationundergod

    I will see how awake the republican party in my area is. I fully expect anti war dems to be involved, I’ll know right away…they are RUDE.

    We are just lighting the torch here, it is up to the rest of you to run the race. With any luck we can narrow the field a bit. I hate to say it, but if Bachmann comes in below 4th, she should get out. But we will count the votes first. Wouldn’t it be great if Romney did terrible!!! Man that would be sweet. You’d think we could knock him off. I guess we could if Paul was out of the way.

  • pttx333

    female, she embarrasses me to no end with her endless shrieking rants, half-truths (if not out-and-out lies), and I have HAD it with her making everything about HER. Females everywhere (I’m not talking about the femi-Nazis, as Rush calls them) should revolt and demand that she drop out.

    Don’t discount what you are doing tonight in even the remotest of ways! Right now you are on the battlefront, and those of us on RS are here to hold down the fort.

    I’m praying for the day when Romney gets his comeuppance – it is looooong overdue! And what set it off for me was a long time ago when I first heard that he had tied his dog to the top of his car for a 12-hour drive to one of their vacation homes! Saw a reporter interview him about it and he was just laughing about it. I was furious then, and I’m still furious today! If you’ll do that to your most loyal little buddy, what will you do to others? It is stunningly appalling to me!

    Godspeed to you and your cohorts tonight!

  • westcoastpatriette

    What a disappointment Bachmann has turned out to be. She just grates on my nerves every time I hear her speak now. I liked her so much at first, although I always felt she was no where prepared to run for the presidency.

    Listening to her just confirms that. It’s like trying to eat a piece of fruit before it is ripe — just yuck. I hope she is able to rehabilitate herself and mature over time but if not, goodbye Michele.

  • pttx333

    mature as she’s going to get by now. Isn’t she 50-something? Sounds like no hope to me.

    Like the piece of fruit that isn’t yet ripe! And two others that are irritating beyond belief to me are: (1) running ones fingernails down those old blackboards at school, and (2) the very old metal ice trays – when you tried to pull the lever to loosen the ice cubes, the sound would sharpen your teeth on the spot! That’s Michele to my ears! Barf provoking …

  • JX12

    He’s not going anywhere.

  • JX12

    Or whatever they call them these days.

  • Tbone

    It just cookies you computer. turn off cookies and click til you drop.

  • jakeofalltrades

    any more than the rule against killing applies to soldiers on the battlefield.

  • joshdunn

    This site was never intended to be for Perry-worshiping only.

    There are many great candidates for Republicans to choose from this year if the media would do its job of simply reporting the news rather than trying to steer elections.

    Any good Republican should be able to beat Obama in November. George Will many not believe it. Erick may not believe it.

    But the polls show that Obama is a fat target right now.

  • joshdunn

    I think that Gingrich (whose name has been spelled “Gringrich” at the Perra, Iowa precinct) should drop out if he finishes below third.

    He has turned out to be a perfectly horrible candidate.

    I have made several calls to Iowa today as part of a volunteer GOTV effort for Mitt Romney. I reached only 3 people. Two were for Romney. One was for Paul.

    Even though I think Paul is nutty, I encouraged all three of them to show up at their caucus and vote for their candidate of choice.

    I would have done the same thing for a Santorum voter, a Gingrich voter, or a Perry voter.

    Cuz we’re all Republicans. And through the mud, the blood, the tears, and the beer, we’ll always be Republicans.

    Cuz God made us that way.

  • joshdunn

    If one would be respected, he should respect others.

  • aesthete

    If Romney does this, I doubt that the Tea Party, or Steve Forbes/Dick Armey-style fiscal Republicans will take it lying down.

  • Bill S

    email the Contact link. It’s not up for debate here.

  • pttx333

    a difference between prod and push. In this case, Anita urged Rick to run as opposed to “pushing” him to run, implying “forcing.” Yes, I knew that she urged him to run – they are very close, and I am certain he wouldn’t have run had she given him a thumbs down. They agreed as a couple to jump into the fray – it does involve both of them being up to the coming chaos, as well as with any other couple involved in a race.