EDITOR OF REDSTATE
What To Expect Tonight
You might think it will be a very slow process tonight given the speeches and the paper ballot counting. But actually the voting should move along quickly and we should start getting results between 8pm and 8:30 pm ET.
The media will conduct entrance polling, as opposed to exit polling as they do in primaries. You’ll probably be able to tell if there is a blow out based on how quickly projections from the entrance polls are released. If news starts trickling out quickly, someone is walking away with it. If news takes a while, it is close. The entrance polling will also give us a good idea about second and third place finishers too.
One thing to keep in mind tonight is that the first wave of entrance polling is typically less reliable than the later entrance poll results because the people who show up early are there in a more organized fashion for one particular candidate. The first round of entrance polls in 2008 leaned toward Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.
The funniest thing about Iowa and the hype it gets is that it amounts to a non-binding straw poll wherein no delegates are actually chosen. Many of the caucuses are going to be small and events will go fast, even if things are close.
And unlike primaries, there will be no recount. The vote is as it is no matter how close it is and we should not have to wait up all night to find out who wins.